Speaker A
The main contenders for president are incumbent Luis Denosio Lula de Silva and Flavio Bolsinaro, the son of the former president Jair Bolsinaro.
Brazil's 2024 election pits left-wing Lula against right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro amid US influence and trade tensions.
Key Takeaways
- Brazil's election is a pivotal moment reflecting broader US-China rivalry and regional political shifts.
- Lula represents a left-wing, sovereignty-focused agenda opposing US interference.
- Flavio Bolsonaro seeks closer alignment with the US and tougher stances on organized crime.
- Trade disputes and tariffs have become central campaign issues influencing voter attitudes.
- Foreign influence and sovereignty concerns are shaping Brazil's domestic and international politics.
What the video covers
- The 2024 Brazilian presidential election features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
- The election highlights tensions over US influence, trade tariffs, organized crime, and Brazil's sovereignty.
- Lula accuses Bolsonaro's camp of encouraging foreign interference, while Washington denies meddling claims.
- Trump has shown strong interest in the election, supporting Bolsonaro-aligned candidates and framing it as a test for his political agenda.
- US imposed tariffs on Brazil linked to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, affecting Brazilian exports and voter sentiment.
- Flavio Bolsonaro advocates for stronger US-Brazil ties and lobbied to classify Brazilian gangs as foreign terrorist organizations.
- Lula campaigns on protecting Brazilian sovereignty against US interference, warning of potential military involvement.
- Brazil's vast natural resources, including critical minerals, make it a strategic interest for both the US and China.
- The election outcome could influence Brazil's geopolitical alignment between the US and China.
- There are allegations of US funding and social media campaigns supporting Bolsonaro's candidacy, raising concerns about foreign electoral interference.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction to main presidential contenders
- 00:37Overview of Brazil's 2024 presidential election
- 01:13US tariffs and political impact in Brazil
- 01:57Flavio Bolsonaro's stance on crime and US relations
- 02:41Campaign focus on US-Brazil relations and sovereignty
- 03:23Profiles of Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro
- 04:00Geopolitical significance of Brazil's resources
- 06:07Expert analysis on US involvement and election stakes
- 07:08Historical context and regional political shifts
- 09:09Implications for Brazil's future international alignment
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Well, Washington has backed closer ties with Brazil's right wing, while Lula de Silva has accused Bolsinaro's camp of encouraging foreign interference. The election has raised questions about US influence, trade tariffs, organized crime, and Brazil's sovereignty. The BBC's Ioni Wells explains. Brazil's
Speaker A
government has accused the US of trying to interfere in its elections over the last couple of months. Washington calls that baseless. So, what's going on?
Speaker A
There is a huge presidential election coming up in Brazil in October. And the main race is between the current left-wing president Lula de Silva and his right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsinaro.
Speaker A
He's the son of the former right-wing president and Trump ally Jair Bolsinaro, who's currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the last election. Trump has shown a big interest in this election.
Speaker A
In June, he shared an article on Truth Social, calling this election the next big test of his project to make the Americas great again. In recent years, many countries in Latin America have swung to the right, electing Trump-
Speaker A
aligned presidents, making it easier for him to push forward some of his agenda when it comes to issues like migration and security. Brazil is the biggest prize left. Last year, the US imposed tariffs on Brazil, partly in response to
Speaker A
Jair Bolsinaro's coup trial. Many Brazilians were furious, including some in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, whose exports were hit, even in areas which had previously voted heavily for the Bolsinaro family. Lula used that anger and accused the Bolsinaro family
Speaker A
of handing Brazil's sovereignty to a foreign power, and his poll numbers went up. The tariffs were later negotiated down, but the US reimposed them earlier this year. Flavio Bolsinaro, for his part, has accused the current president and his party of being soft on organized
Speaker A
crime. Earlier this year in Washington, he lobbied the US administration to designate Brazilian gangs as foreign terrorist organizations. And he argued he was the only one who could sit down with the US as an equal. Lula says that
Speaker A
risks more US interference, possibly even US military intervention on Brazilian soil. In July, Brazil even blocked the visas of US officials, which it said were coming to the country to sow doubt on the electoral system, a claim that the US called baseless. Now,
Speaker A
it's not new for US politicians to show an interest in Latin America's biggest economy. Jair Bolsinaro was a close ally of Donald Trump during their first presidencies. Barack Obama once described President Lula as the most popular politician on Earth. But
Speaker A
disputes over tariffs and terrorist designations of Brazilian gangs have made the relationship with the United States a key campaign issue, with both candidates arguing that their position is in the best interest of Brazilians.
Speaker A
Ioni Wells there with me is BBC reporter Brana Leer. So, thank you very much for being with us, Brana. What is interesting here, kind of in a global situation with these huge tensions around the US and the rivalry with China,
Speaker A
is that Brazil is very much caught up in this and these two candidates sort of represent a bit of a split, don't they, in terms of where they're getting their support from and their positions in terms of where Brazil faces. Just tell
Speaker A
us about these two men. Yes, they do. So, they're kind of opposite ends of the political spectrum.
Speaker A
You've got Lula on the left and he is a veteran in the Brazilian left. He served his first presidential term in 2003. So he's going for a historic fourth term in office. He's about to turn 81. Some critics say a
Speaker A
little too old. And he has been incredibly critical of what he calls US attempts to meddle in Brazilian elections. His relationship with President Trump is quite fraught. Trump has imposed tariffs in Brazil. You know, he imposed 50% tariffs last year
Speaker A
on some Brazilian exports which were then kind of renegotiated and then they were reimposed 25% tariffs on other Brazilian exports this year. And in part he cited when he imposed those 50% tariffs the trial of former president
Speaker A
Jair Bolsinaro, who Trump was very close to and whose arrival of Lula. So the relationship between the two men is not in the best place. And recently Lula blocked the visas of two US officials again claiming, you know, making these
Speaker A
claims of attempts by the US to interfere or meddle in Brazilian politics. The US completely denies those. And on the other end of the spectrum you have Flavio Bolsinaro. So Flavio Bolsinaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsinaro. You'll remember
Speaker A
he was a highly controversial populist right-wing figure and very closely allied with Trump. And he claims, as we saw Ioni Wells in her report say, he claims that he can connect to the US as an equal, that he can probably
Speaker A
do a better job of negotiating deals that are beneficial for Brazil with the US. He also lobbied for Washington to designate certain Brazilian crime groups as terrorist organizations. But Lula has made this pitch that
Speaker A
actually his campaign and his fight is one for Brazilian sovereignty in the face of US interests, and sovereignty is a really sort of big defining issue at the moment for many countries because of the sense
Speaker A
that the US's position and reliability perhaps is changing, and it comes to the four in AI and resources, and Brazil is the second largest reserve of critical minerals after China, which is one reason why both the US and China are
Speaker A
very interested in it and why these elections matter. Yeah. I mean, there's huge interest in Brazil and as you'd imagine, you might remember Trump mentioning the Monroe doctrine, a rewriting of the Monroe doctrine, this idea of
Speaker A
South America being, you know, America's backyard, a sphere of influence to be established there. And, you know, we've seen lots of countries in South America switch to the right. We saw that in Argentina, in Venezuela, in
Speaker A
Colombia. So Brazil is the largest economy, the largest democracy in South America. It's obviously a country with huge amounts of natural resources. So there's interest there from both the US and China in establishing that kind of influence and depending on who, you
Speaker A
know, gets in at this election that may sway which country is more closely allied with Brazil.
Speaker A
It's one that really matters. We're going to be watching it. Thanks very much indeed, Brana Leer. Thank you. Well, let's get more on this now with Dr. Christopher Sabatini, who's senior fellow for Latin America at
Speaker A
Chatham House. Thanks so much for being with us. It's a very tight race.
Speaker A
What is your understanding as to how much the US might have got involved with this political fight?
Speaker A
We really don't know. Brazilian intelligence services recently shared with a number of people a dossier that claims the US has intervened in all sorts of ways. And it was recently revealed just a few days ago that the US
Speaker A
has shifted funding under the Ukraine package of support for neighboring countries to supposedly support right-wing messaging, including Facebook ads in favor of Flavio Bolsinaro. But it's clear Trump has made no bones about his efforts to try
Speaker A
to sway this election. The Bolsinaro family is his family. In many ways it's very similar. They use the same playbook as your report mentioned. Ioni mentioned as well. Flavio, I'm sorry, Flavio's father Jair Bolsinaro in 2023
Speaker A
after he had lost the elections and claimed that the electoral system was broken and corrupt and fraudulent, tried to stage a coup d'état very similar to Donald Trump. These mobs basically stormed the Supreme Court and
Speaker A
the Congress and basically destroyed some of the buildings. So now we're looking again at a...
Speaker A
mentioned, but when the Supreme Court justice was investigating Gyra Balsinaro for this attempted coup, um the the US imposed sanctions on him, not just on him, Alexander de Mores, but also on his family. So there's also this element not
Speaker A
just of national sovereignty here. There's this idea that the US is intervening to subvert democratic sovereignty. This was an independent Supreme Court in a democratic uh country. This is a really a level of intervention that you know we never even
Speaker A
saw under the previous Monroe Doctrine, the Monroe Doctrine. This is a level of partisanship and trying to line up a set of presidents across the Americas that are not just conservative or share US national interests but are very much cut
Speaker A
from the same cloth as Donald Trump. Yeah. And we have seen a lot of discussion around this whole idea of whether Trump is trying to sort of bring about this sphere of influence strategy because of of other nations that he's
Speaker A
been looking at. Um also I just wanted to ask you about you know how important the the AI factor is. Uh Brazil holds the world's sort of sec largest reserves of nobbium which is used in steel alloys and superconductors. It is the second
Speaker A
largest um holder of rare earth. It's got an estimated 21 million tons after China. And in this global race on AI, Braz Brazil's role in that is really important, isn't it?
Speaker A
It is. As you mentioned, uh, it has the second largest reserves of rare earth uh, minerals after China. Um, what's going to be tricky here, whoever wins will be trying to navigate both, you know, the relationship between the US
Speaker A
and China. In part because China is the major trade partner of Brazil. So, whatever government's in power, it won't want to ruin that trade relationship.
Speaker A
What it will have to do is look over its shoulder uh and worry about the United States slapping sanctions on or even threatening other forms of punishment if Brazil is seen as giving favorable and and and monopolistic control over some
Speaker A
of these rare earth minerals that are in Brazil. And and that's going to be a touchy thing. We've seen this happen in Panama when Trump claimed he was going to take back the Panama Canal and then had them basically revoke the license or
Speaker A
contracts for two Hong Kong based uh companies on either end of the the canal. There are clearly red lines here and I think giving you know excessive access to China to these rare earths is going to be one of those and how that
Speaker A
could play out could be very damaging for both not just Brazil US relations but also Brazil China relations. In the case of Panama, China inflicted some pain on Panama for what it did with the contracts um by refusing to accept a
Speaker A
number of Panameanian flagships. So, a lot of these, you know, geopolitical moments are playing out under the radar screen and they're very important to the integrity and the the national sovereignty of these economies and countries in Latin America.
Speaker A
Dr. Christopher Sabatini, many thanks indeed.
Topics:Brazil election 2024Lula da SilvaFlavio BolsonaroUS influence BrazilBrazil tariffsJair BolsonaroLatin America politicsUS-China rivalryBrazil sovereigntyorganized crime Brazil
