Bitcoin’s Market Structure – Learn it and You’ll Stop B… — Transcript

Now, in this video, I'm going to be talking to you about Bitcoin's market structure.

I have great indicators, but this compliments my indicators and tells me to be watching key levels of support and resistance to what Bitcoin does there, does it, does it break through levels of resistance and keep going into the next level and the bull run continues or does it hesitate and reverse?

We talking to you about Bitcoin's market structure, watch the video all the way through, do yourself a favor if you want to be in the know, watch the video all the way through.

I have information that nobody else has, very few people understand what I'm talking about, very few people know how to trade market structure, that's why the the herd keeps buying the dip that keeps on dipping, they're guessing, they're hoping, they're praying.

Market structure structure helps helps me not to buy the dip that keeps on dipping, but to buy the dip that ends the dipping.

So that I'm not a dip.

Watch this video all the way through.

Bitcoin, Bitcoin still has this bear flag pattern.

It um again is likely we're going to set up a lower high here.

Maybe that lower high is done, it's still possible we get a divergence here on the RSI, uh and we go a little bit higher and we get this divergence in the most recent price action, uh the the uh scenario I've marked here is that wave four is done.

If it's not done, if you exceed this upper boundary, exceed this high over here, you still have this dotted trend line right here, if wave four is not done or the alternative my wave B being a larger ABC structure.

Uh again, I believe personally that this was a peak and that we're getting the wave two, but again, shorter term price fluctuations are harder to call.

If we have begun the intermediate wave five, the black count here, we have these five minor waves, one, two here or two here, lower high, lower than the peak over here for intermediate wave four.

And then you've that's followed by wave three, four and five.

We'll be watching to see if this 80,000 or 60,000 area uh is taken out here.

Uh in the near future, I believe it will be.

But then I think you will develop a bottom, possible larger inverse head and shoulders under construction.

Uh if that does happen and we move down to the key support area.

Right now Bitcoin is up 1.32%.

Right at $75,000, $70,800.

Uh here, so again, we'll be watching to see if this comes to a conclusion with a lower high.

Uh do we get another lower high or is this counter trend not yet done?

If it is not a counter trend, we move above that high, that would invalidate the the one two count that I have going here.

And it would mean that the wave four or wave B structure is not yet done.

Make sure you watch this video all the way through, I'm going to be talking to you about something extremely important.

You do not want to miss this video.

If you watch this video, you're going to have more information and important information, uh more information than most Bitcoin traders.

I strongly encourage you, watch this video all the way through.

I'll try to keep it shorter.

This is really important.

Please support the channel with the link directly below, that allows me to be able to provide you this information.

If you like my charts and you will, you like my indicators and you will.

And you like this video and you will.

Because it's information you're not going to get anywhere else.

If you like that kind of cutting edge information, please follow the link below.

Support the channel, it'll take you to a secured site, you could do anything, uh support the channel with any amount you want.

Or you can make it a recurring donation.

Anything helps, but if you could take a moment to do that.

Let me know.

You want this information.

Let me know you want this information.

These these charts are the the charts that I use to make my decision.

My trading decisions on Bitcoin, and I don't know about you, but my indicators have really helped me be successful.

In trading Bitcoin, if they've helped you and educated you.

Follow that link below and support my channel.

I do that rather than being sponsors.

Exchanges, they have paid me a lot of money to send people there.

I don't want to do that.

I don't want to sell you anything.

I don't want to send you to some exchange, how do I know they're not going to be the next exchange that goes under?

I don't know that.

How do I know that they're not going to give some newbie all leveraged up?

I don't know that.

So I don't do that.

There's a lot of shady things that go on with these exchanges.

You're smart enough to figure out where you want to trade.

But just partner with me, partner with me and support the channel today.

I thank you for your consideration for that.

Here is the daily chart.

Uh here is the daily chart and again, I believe that we either have this extended primary wave five.

The blue count, you've got this larger WXY.

Here I've marked it as a one.

A one, a two, a three, a four and an extended fifth down here.

And I think you'll bottom at one of these trend lines.

There's key support uh between 49,000 and 54, 55,000 or so.

If we drop below 60,000, that's where I think we're going to bottom.

If you watch this video all the way through, you'll understand why I believe that's where we will bottom.

I think you get the bigger bear market rally.

We could have the stock market, we can have Bitcoin in a larger bottoming process forming.

Maybe a inverse head and shoulders, getting these uh sell offs as the stock market plays catch up to Bitcoin.

Just as the stock market went sideways, while Bitcoin crashed, so when the stock market's crashing, Bitcoin can go sideways in a bottoming process.

Even bottom before the stock market, which I think could be here in March or April.

That's what we have.

Now, I'm going to share with you some really important things.

Let's draw my indicators because I want to talk to you about something very important.

Just now I have mixed signals.

I have mixed signals because we're going sideways.

But again, still in a downtrend, it's likely not over and you have a bear flag continuation pattern.

That's either finished or we go up to this other boundary.

If we try to go higher.

My guess is it's finished and we're going to get a lower high.

I think they'll move to take out all the stops under here at uh 62 and 63,000.

Down here is 60,000, right below this area, this trend line.

There's a boat load of stops and under this area, the institutions are likely going to push price down.

Create a bunch of selling so they can buy.

That's what they do.

Those are the games that institutions play.

People that believe we have a bottom here or the same people that have believed that we've had a bottom all the way down saying buy the dip, they're early bulls.

I don't want to buy the dip that keeps on dipping, I want to buy the dip that ends the dipping.

Which is likely down here somewhere.

If you watch the video all the way through, you'll see that.

See why I think that.

video, I'm going to be talking to you about the market structure of Bitcoin.

How does Bitcoin behave at a critical level?

Here at the trend line of resistance.

What did it do?

It turned off of it.

It tried to get above it here, it failed, got a topping tail in July, got a topping tail in uh uh August.

We hit it again.

And then we peaked out failing to clear that trend line from these two highs back in 2021.

I told you these highs could be pointing to the next high.

I talked about this back up at the top, going into the top.

Talked about how it was one, two and three strikes you're out.

I talked about the four-year cycle being right here at this level of resistance.

It's my job and your job to see how price behaves at a critical level of support or resistance.

We're moving towards a critical level of support.

We're at a minor one right now, the upper end of a support level.

I'll show you on another chart in just a moment.

This is a support level that we're likely headed to right here.

But there was hesitation at this peak and a failed breakout.

And then a change of behavior.

The consolidations by breakouts to new highs, consolidation by a breakout to a new high.

Consolidation by a breakout to a new high.

Showed there was a deception, a false breakout.

Rejection at this key level means Bitcoin did not agree with higher prices.

And that's what the herd failed to understand all those people in September, October, November, December.

Telling us, oh, Bitcoin's going to 200, 250,000 by the end of the year.

They don't understand Bitcoin signal.

That wasn't going to happen.

I talked about these divergences, again, this is the weekly time frame.

Look at the divergences.

Again, very similar to the divergences back over at the 2021 top.

Very similar to the bullish divergences down at the 2022 low.

But market structure was broken and there was a change of behavior.

Now the signals from the uh uh the week after the the week after the top turned bearish.

I had other signals that turned bearish the week of the top.

And I talked about those in the daily and the weekly time frame.

We moved down to this next level of support.

Actually, the one here.

Uh that broke.

And then the one here.

Uh again, they attempted to create a bottom here, that key level was broke.

And now we're down into this area here.

And lower into the range is between 49,000 and about 54, 55,000 for the lows here.

And the lows over here.

Which is where I think we're going to bottom.

I think you'll get a local bottom.

I don't think Bitcoin's going to new highs.

I think we're in a long-term prolonged bear market that's going to go to at least October to the end of the year.

Possibly longer, I'm leaning towards longer.

The four-year cycle is still intact, but it could break later.

Because we could have an extended bear market, Bitcoin could have a wrecking ball taken to it.

If we get a dot com style bust in the stock market, a a recession, a very bad recession, which is the recession signals are flashing.

That's going to be the case.

And a banking crisis, Bitcoin's never experienced any of these things.

That's why I think Bitcoin will drop 80 to 90%.

Uh historically, that's what Bitcoin has done.

The smallest bear market was over here at 78%.

I think Bitcoin will drop probably more than that.

Due to these things.

Down here.

Again.

There's no bullish divergences here.

Now over here with the crash, like I predicted this crash.

To kick off the bear market.

The crash to kick off the bear market.

We reached an extreme down here.

Actually a low like we hit.

And then we still went lower.

Uh and um.

Tested that level.

I think you will go lower and remove.

Uh take out this level myself.

Then I think you'll get the big bear market rally.

When it was done here.

The sell off resumed.

We didn't bottom until we got this divergence.

So again, keep that in mind.

The signals are in the negative region.

The bearish divergence has played out.

Do not become overwhelmed with my notes on my chart.

I on my trading charts, I make notes, I have other charts that I have just clean charts with my indicators.

But I made notes on here because I want to talk to you about market structure.

And what I'm looking at as a trader.

As a trader, I have great indicators.

I've I've put thousands of hours into creating great indicators.

I create my own indicators.

But market structure compliments that and it uh helps.

Really fine tune my entry and exit points.

Uh as uh.

Look at market structure.

What is market structure?

Bitcoin's market structure and uh market structure is the way price moves over time.

It is the patterns created by buyers and sellers battling for control.

I'm reading up here in the left.

Uh my notes.

Uh market structure refers to structural organization of price action for any specific tradeable asset.

So.

Today we're talking about Bitcoin's market structure.

A trend remains intact until the structure breaks.

We had the structure being bullish here.

That structure changed, it broke, it changed when we topped and got the reversal.

A trend remains intact until the structure breaks.

When the structure breaks, the balance of power shifts.

That's what I'm going to be talking to you about today.

Now market structure over here to the right, market structure reveals how trends begin.

How they develop, how they strengthen, weaken and eventually reverse.

As we had up here.

When structure changes, your job is to train a change with it.

You need to change with the structure.

The trend is your friend until the end.

When the structure changes, the trend changes, you need to change.

Most people don't have the ability to do that.

If you properly align yourself with Bitcoin, you will be successful.

You'll get to the point where you're unbiased, where you don't care whether Bitcoin goes up or down.

Doesn't matter to you.

That's why people can't see tops is because they're biased.

They only see bullish things about Bitcoin.

I don't care which way Bitcoin goes.

I'm a trader.

So I look at things objectively.

That's why I got super bullish when I saw evidence of a bottom.

At the October, or I'm sorry, at the April low.

I flipped to bearish.

And I had a lot of people get mad at me.

When I saw evidence of a top at the October peak.

I've been bearish.

I've been warning you, we're going to go lower.

I'm the guy that predicted Bitcoin 60,000.

I was right.

I still don't think that's the bottom.

I think you'll bottom down in this area here.

Just below it.

At that time, I'm going to turn back to short-term bullish.

Not that I believe Bitcoin is going to now be finished with the sell off.

Now that I not that I think that Bitcoin's going to go and make new highs.

But we're going to get a bear market rally.

I think that Bitcoin gets about two or three main movements per year.

And the main movement, we had one here in April.

We have another one here right now.

I think you're going to get another main movement back up and then there'll be another main movement later in the year.

Uh that will resume the sell off.

Bitcoin gets main movements.

It's a position trader, uh I'm looking.

To play the Bitcoin main movement.

So when the structure changes, I want to change with it.

I want to align with the prevailing structure.

And that is the closest thing to certainty that a trader can have.

Here in this chart is what I'm looking at.

As I'm looking at Bitcoin's market structure.

And what happens?

Confirmation at key levels.

Confirmation of bullish events, confirmation of bearish events.

It helps me uh be in alignment with the dominant Bitcoin trend.

Market structure here.

Uh we have these periods.

Uh where price consolidates.

And here we had it.

And even uh down here this wick low down at 49,000.

Where price consolidates.

But then we had a breakout of that range.

And the trend resumed.

That resistance became support.

And it's fascinating.

Uh here's the January 2024 high.

That on the pullback at 49,000, that peak was at 48,000.

That became support.

Then we had this move higher.

And this became support.

It doesn't always work this clean.

But it sure did in this bull market.

Back to 74,000 over here.

We had this area here as key support.

Uh or key resistance.

Now it became support.

We broke out through this level.

And then we moved to these highs.

And we went sideways.

This is where the distribution began to happen at key resistance with the institutions.

And the professional traders.

I warned that if we could not clear this resistance level that Bitcoin would peak.

And begin a reversal.

Actually reached this level again and it failed.

We didn't have a breakout like we've had back at these other.

Other breakouts where you had conviction, conviction here.

This, we moved higher out of this trading range over here.

But then we went sideways.

And there was no no conviction.

We went higher, turned lower, went higher again and it failed.

You got these topping tails.

And then we came down to this support area.

We bounced.

But rather than breaking out of this level, you had a fake breakout and there was hesitation at resistance.

Bitcoin proved weakness at the October 6th high.

As I talked about back up at the top.

Now after Bitcoin proved weakness at resistance.

With a hesitation.

There was a lack of commitment on the part of buyers.

And sellers pounced on it.

In market structure, we're looking for confirmation at key levels.

Key levels here at resistance, there was hesitation.

And there was rejection.

Price did not bust through this critical level of resistance.

It hesitated.

Uh it didn't do what it did in the past during the uptrend.

That was a huge red flag.

Price came down.

Took out this level, this battleground area.

Uh then Bitcoin lost that area.

It got rejection at this area.

Lost this area of support.

Came down to the pullback here after just before the breakout of that battleground area.

Initially took it out.

Traded a bounce there at 103,000.

But then it failed and you came down and broke through this level right here.

So in the market structure, can you see this range?

And this lowest low before the sharp rally and the push out of this trading range.

The bulls did not defend this area.

So we dropped back down to this area.

At 74,000.

We got a low at 80,000.

Warned you back at the top, we're going down to 74,000.

Eventually we would take it out and eventually go down to this low right here.

And I predicted that back at the top because I'm looking at the weekly chart.

I'm looking at the market structure.

I know that Bitcoin historically has dropped more than 50% to kick off the bear market.

So I was predicting we take out that low at 74,000, which was a 41% drop.

I predicted we'd at least drop my minimum objective target was 60 to 63,000.

Why, because that's a 50 to 52% drop.

Our last bear market, we dropped 52%.

I told you we could drop more than that.

Moving towards the 200 or 300 week moving average.

And moving towards this area.

Now, I've told you, I thought 49,000 would hold.

Which is this wick low right here.

And this formation.

Doesn't mean I'm going to be right.

If we drop below it, right under that, you have this 50% retracement of the entire advance.

At 44,000.

That's this area right here.

So Bitcoin proved weakness by taking out this support level.

Moving back into the lower end of the price range.

At 74,000.

For convinced there was a bottom there.

But what do we do, we rallied right back up to where?

To this battleground area here.

Taking out this trend line.

Taking out the low right here.

Right before that breakout right there.

Again, we rallied right back up into that area.

To 80,000 to 97,000.

Remember I told you there was major resistance there at 98,900.

Peaked at 97,900.

I told you we were not going above 98,900.

How did I know that?

Because I looked at market structure.

I knew we were going to likely halt at the 100 period moving average.

You see the resistance.

We came down to just above this support area.

Tried to bounce.

Came to resistance.

And then we came down and we broke through this market structure.

Taking out 74,000.

We came down to 60,000.

We came down to the low right here.

And look what we did.

We bounced.

Remember I told you we're going to bounce on February 5th and 6th.

Because we're getting the nine count.

We're going to bottom on February 5th or 6th.

At this support area.

And likely rally to the 50 period moving average.

74,000 towards our last.

Minor low at 80,000.

Which again is that resistance zone.

Rallied back up.

And where do we stall?

Right at this red line right here.

74,000.

Look at this.

This is the peak over here.

Just under 74,000.

We broke through it here.

It became support here at the April low.

And we broke through it and we came back and we tested it.

That's the trend line right here.

From this this uh uh final or this uh miniature relief rally high.

At 97,000.

Down to this trend line.

You connect them.

Now we're testing it again.

You have a possible bull uh bullish falling wedge here.

In the weekly time frame with our log scaling.

But again, coming down to the support.

Rebounding back up to resistance.

You're likely going to get rejection here and come down into this area.

Now again.

I've got my notes on here.

Don't let that take away from what I'm saying.

Here we're approaching this battleground, if we drop below 60,000.

You're going to approach this battleground area.

This is where I think Bitcoin's going to bottom.

Between the 200 week here and the 300 week right here.

The red line and the black line.

This horizontal support.

The wick low is 49,000.

You may see Bitcoin wick down.

It often does at bottoms.

The low here, 54,000.

The low up here, 55,000.

Could serve as a support zone.

The highs over here could be pointing to the next low.

The lows over here could be pointing to the next low.

You have a confluence of support right here.

Will the bulls defend this level?

This is my my crash target.

I believe the bulls are going to defend this level.

I believe the institutions are going to push prices down.

So they can build a position here to ride it back up so they can sell more Bitcoin.

They'll buy the Bitcoin ETFs or whatever vehicle.

They're going to use hedge funds, futures or whatever.

The big institutional guns.

The hedge funds, the professional money.

Is likely going to push it down so they can buy right here.

Trigger all the stops on these people over here, these early bulls.

And been permabulls all the way down by buying the dip.

And then getting liquidated time after time again.

Is what I want to do is be watching to see if we do push down.

Liquidate these folks.

Do we see the bulls defend this support?

This is the next battleground area.

Again, the shaded red or pink areas here.

Are battleground levels of support that the the bulls have lost.

And the bears have won victory.

Is likely that is going to change.

But look at this, this pretty this market structure is pretty amazing.

Again, change of behavior here with the reversal.

Then the breaking of this level here.

The breaking of the trend line.

Coming back to this area of resistance.

Breaking the next level of support.

Coming back to this level of resistance.

It's likely we're going to come down into this major level of support.

Now these bounces in the downtrend.

When you you get these dead cat bounces.

They end up failing.

There's distribution taking place.

Keep being told all the way down.

Oh no, the the the the institutions are buying.

No, they're not.

They've been selling.

That's why we're going down.

They'll probably defend this area and we'll get a bear market rally back up.

How big?

I don't know.

Historically, they've been to the 50% retracement.

I think we're going to get another main movement back up.

But I think the market structure is going to change in this area.

Between the 200 and the 300 week moving average.

Within this area of support.

My guess is you're going to take out 60,000.

And either bottom somewhere between 49,000 and 55,000.

I could be wrong if we wick down below this area.

If I do, then I'll be watching this 50% retracement of the entire advance.

Which is coming in at 44,000.

Right here.

At the top, there was hesitation and Bitcoin proved weakness.

Here, will Bitcoin prove weakness?

Will Bitcoin uh will Bitcoin bulls?

Will they defend this area?

Big institutional guns, I think they will.

I think you'll drop down in this area here somewhere.

Between the 200 and 300 week moving average.

Or into this level of support.

Maybe deeper.

And then I think you're going to end up probably trying to set up an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Just my uh personal belief.

So I think we'll get another change of behavior down in here.

Like we got the change of behavior.

The last one here.