The Bitcoin Bear Market is Officially Over! Trump says … — Transcript

Bitcoin bear market may be ending with bullish signals; Trump supports crypto but hype is risky; wave analysis suggests cautious optimism.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is likely in a corrective wave two rally but faces strong resistance near $74,000-$75,000.
Technical signals are mixed but increasingly bullish, indicating a possible short-term bounce.
Trump's positive stance on crypto is good for the market but should not drive trading decisions.
A significant drop of 80-90% could still occur after the rally, consistent with historical patterns.
Traders should rely on robust indicators rather than hype and be prepared for volatility.

Summary

Early warning signs in late June indicated a potential bounce in Bitcoin prices.
The analyst discusses Elliott Wave theory, suggesting the market may be in wave two of a corrective rally.
Multiple technical indicators have flipped bullish recently, though some remain bearish due to sideways movement.
Resistance is expected near the 200-period moving average around $74,000 to $75,000.
Trump's pro-crypto comments are noted but trading based on hype is discouraged.
The analyst expects a possible sharp decline after the current rally, potentially an 80-90% drop historically consistent with Bitcoin.
Support is expected near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $67,000.
The video creator uses proprietary indicators developed over thousands of hours to analyze Bitcoin.
There is an emphasis on cautious trading and avoiding hype-driven decisions despite bullish divergences.
The channel requests viewer support via donations to maintain independence from sponsors.

Chapters

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

Now, last week we saw some early warning signs in late June and at the beginning of last week that we're going to get a bounce. And I told you we're going to get a little bounce and go lower and then get a bigger one. I told you this could be a bigger bounce.

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Whether a larger or smaller wave two, I do not know. But if this is a wave one down, we are likely in wave two. I do have some alternative counts, but we saw some signals begin to turn back to

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bullish a week ago, early last week. And then we saw some other indicators follow and then, as I said in my last video, it's kind of a mixed bag. Well, let's check in on a few here. We saw the

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signal turn back to bullish last Thursday and again I told you some of these signals turn bullish and we see more signals turn bullish and we can get a larger wave two right here, right now if wave one is in fact done. And some

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other signals began to follow on last Friday and Saturday on Independence Day. We had a bunch of these warning signs at the bottom over here that we were going to get some kind of bounce. So, I told you if it flips all the signals back to

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bullish, then you can get your wave two. Over here, we had the signals turn bullish, but they reverted right back to bearish. I told you wave one was likely not yet down. I'm counting this as a wave one, but I do have alternative

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counts going. That's just my primary wave count at this time. If we do get the bigger bounce, then I'm assuming we are in wave two, but not to rally above 74 or 75,000. Now, here with our Trump's, I'm a big crypto, I'm a big crypto

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guy rally. Fine. More power to the president. If he likes crypto, great. But it's hype and opium.

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Personally, I'm glad that Trump is pro-crypto. That's a good thing. But trading Bitcoin based on the hype of what Trump says about crypto is a bad thing. There are a boatload of people that do it. Again, we got warning

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signs. We're going to get a bounce. I told you I didn't know if it'd be a feeble or a bigger bounce. And I told you again, very well could be a wave two. Right now, we're seeing this

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signal here trying to flip. It will not be final until the end of the session by the close with the saw off. It was still bearish with the rebound right here. It's attempting to flip. We saw the signals here and again we're likely

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to stay below this 200 period moving average below the 74, 74,000 to 75,000 area and that's coming in right around 74,000 or so on that 200 period moving average.

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We saw a bunch of signals begin to flip back to bullish on Friday and Saturday here. On Saturday, the signal flipped. So again, if the signals remain bullish, then my guess is we're likely in a wave two. We just dropped

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30%. People ignored that. Oh, we're rallying up. Hello, after dropping 30%. Reality check.

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We're starting to see oscillators go into positive territory. We have it with the RSI. We have it here with momentum here. So, we'll see if this amounts to a bigger countertrend rally.

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But, as I said, the rally still may be, even if it is a bigger wave two,

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it could still be a feeble wave two. To be more powerful, it has to get above the 61.8 or, I'm sorry, the 38.2 Fibonacci at around the 67,000 area.

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Get above the 50 period if we're going to try to move closer towards a larger Fibonacci retracement or closer to the 100 or 200 period moving averages. But not all the signals have turned back to bullish. Again, I still have

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signals that are still bearish and really that's because we're going sideways. If we do go closer to the 50 period, then again, I expect the moonboys are going to say it's an inverse head and shoulders pattern. As I've said, I think the rally

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will stall somewhere under the 200 period moving average, somewhere under 74, 75,000 in all likelihood. The 200 is at 74,000 and some change.

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And it could be some of the signals that haven't turned bullish yet, we pull back, they remain bearish, and then they turn bullish with another leg up. Or if we continue higher with this move higher, then maybe they turn bullish.

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Right here, still bearish here, even though we've had these momentum warning signs near the lows.

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Now, bars had turned back to bullish here, but the trending signals had not yet turned bullish. They're now attempting to do that. So, again, we'll be watching to see if this amounts to something bigger.

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We're likely to hold below the 200 and probably hold below the 100 period moving average or test it and get rejection at it if we get a bigger rally.

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We've seen some signals turn bullish and then more signals turn bullish and now even more signals have turned bullish.

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Others are still bearish, but I still think we're likely in a wave two.

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Here's an indicator that I just finished creating. It's also flipped back to bullish. And just quickly, I think that we have this wave two likely under construction right now. That's probably going to stay under 70,000 or less in my opinion. Could terminate even

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lower near the 38.2 Fibonacci around 67,000. Here today we're currently at the 63,000 area after about a 4% sell-off and then rebounding back up. So this is what I think is happening. I think that the rally will be followed by a very,

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very, very sharp decline. As I've said, I think Bitcoin is going towards an 80 to 90% drop, which is historically what it's done. And that means it's going to 12 or 13,000 for a 90% drop or an 80% drop is about 25,000.

Speaker A

Please support the channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you like my charts, and you will. If you like my indicators, then you will. Why?

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Because they're correct. If you like that kind of cutting-edge information, please consider supporting the channel.

Speaker A

If you could take a moment, let me know you want this information. I'd really, really appreciate that. Just follow the link below to take you to a secured site. You can donate any amount you want. Again, I just ask that you do

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that rather than getting sponsors. I turn those offers down. Exchanges would pay me a lot of money to send people there, do a lot of shady deals, and I just don't want any part of it. I just ask that you do what you can to help out.

Speaker A

Follow the link below and just do whatever you can and I thank you for your consideration for that. And again, these are the indicators that I use to make my decisions with Bitcoin and they've allowed me to become a very, very

Speaker A

successful Bitcoin trader because I have good indicators. Indicators you see in my videos. I've created most of them, putting in thousands and thousands of hours into creating indicators that actually work.

Speaker A

Nevertheless, I digress. The bullish divergences did give us this rally. It is probably wave two. I do have alternative counts, but again, it's probably wave A up right now. And again, there are a couple different

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ways we can count it. If we get a pullback and break the winning streak here and again I'll be watching this previous high right here and that's again right at that 38.2 Fibonacci area, the 67,000 area and the 70,000 area up

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here which is near our 20 period moving average in the weekly time frame, in the 100 period in the daily. We're above the cloud here in the 4-hour time frame.

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We're above the 50 and now we're trying to get here. We're getting above our 250. Still below the 200. It'll probably get a bullish cross, but we'll probably be above it, pull back here, and then get another push higher, probably

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in an ABC move for a wave two. Told you if it's a more feeble bounce for wave two, then we should hold right around the 38.2 Fibonacci around this low 67,000 area. If it's something bigger, then we get a

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in an ABC move for a wave two. Told you if it's a more feeble bounce for wave two, then we should hold right around the 38.2 Fibonacci around this low 67,000 area. If it's something bigger, then we get a 50% or 61.8 of

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Fibonacci. then we can rally towards the 100 or 200 period moving average in the daily time frame towards the 20 in the uh weekly time frame. But as I said, you're likely not going above uh 74 or 75,000. If you want to understand why,

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go watch my last video and put that weekly information together in your mind with the daily information with our Fibonacci and our 100 and 200 period moving average in the daily time frame.

Speaker A

Okay, just just a quick update. Go watch my last video. If you did not watch that last video, you are missing a massive piece of the puzzle. I'll link it at the end of this video. I'm going to be

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short. So, if you didn't watch that last video, go watch it because you need the information. Explain why Bitcoin is likely not to go in the weekly time frame above 74 75,000 and like why it's likely going to halt under 70,000 in all

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likelihood 70,000 or less. I explain all that in the weekly time frame here. Well, 70,000 is our 50% retracement of the entire decline. Okay? And we may very well just stall at the 38.2 Fibonacci if we get more of a feeble

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rebound. If we get something bigger, then I'm looking at the 50% retracement and our 61.8 Fibonacci which is at 73,200 and some change. So again, the 200 period is currently at the 74,000 area.

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In my last update, I talked about how that is near other levels of resistance in the weekly time frame. talk about the 20week moving average and uh other levels that we are likely not going above the 200. We are likely not going

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above 74 or 75,000 and more likely uh the the rally will probably terminate uh here uh at 70,000 or less. So that's what I'm expecting. We've had these bullish divergences. We had a sell off today. Coin dropped at the lows back to

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the 10 period moving average. back to the 10 period moving average. Let me change my tool here. Uh the red line and we sold off about 4% and we rebounded and now we're up. Why are we up? Well,

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we're up 28%. We're up $178. Uh and I want to make an announcement that the bare market is now officially over for Bitcoin. The bare market is now officially over and that's why we're rallying today. Rebounding off a 4%

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sell-off. Bitcoin rebounds after Trump says he's a big crypto guy. So Trump says he's a big crypto guy. So the bare market is now officially over. That's the way these moonboys think. Now Bitcoin's been selling up because we

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have a hawkish Fed that expects to raise rates. Now Bitcoin's going to bottom when they panic and eventually do jumbo rate cuts. If they do rate cuts, they'll reverse themselves or they won't do them at all if they raise rates. if they if

Speaker A

they either they'll raise rates and reverse themselves as they did at the 2000 top for the stock market or they won't raise them at all as as we had at the 2007 top and markets the stock market will play catch-up to Bitcoin

Speaker A

begin to collapse and the Fed will panic and Bitcoin will get an even bigger sell off the Fed will panic and start jumbo cuts and Bitcoin will bottom out in all likelihood with that and soar to the moon and that's likely going to be in

Speaker A

the fourth quarter and it could come in September. nomber, late third quarter or on into the fourth quarter, October, November or December. And again, if the four-year cycle holds, Bitcoin should bottom out around October uh 2026, give or take a month or two. Now, in the 2013

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to 15 bare bare market, it went on a little bit longer than a year. There's a good chance that the four-year cycle uh is going to produce a bottom in the fourth quarter. these people don't realize is that well Trump was a big

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crypto guy at the Bitcoin top you know Bitcoin had rallied oh Trump's coming in he's a big crypto guy then on inauguration day it peaked Bitcoin peaked on January 20th 2025 when bit when uh Trump was sworn in

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later it would peak in October of 2025 and Bitcoin has now crashed by 54% did did Trump being a big crypto guy, did that prevent Bitcoin from crashing? No.

Speaker A

Person after person, oh, Trump won't let the stock market contraction. Did Trump stop Bitcoin from crashing? Did Trump prevent the bare market, his first term from 2017 to 18? Did Trump prevent the Bitcoin crash of 71% with the pandemic?

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Did Trump prevent that? You see how these people think? They're just really irrational the way they think.

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the Moonboys. I mean, you got to check your brain at the door to believe some of the hoaxes that these people put out.

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Bitcoin's following the M2 money supply as Bitcoin crashes. We're in the new super cycle and the four-year cycle's dead as Bitcoin crashes. Oh, adoption.

Speaker A

Everybody's adopting Bitcoin as Bitcoin crashes. Hoax after hoax after hoax with these people. And you know what gets me is that people still believe this garbage. still believe all the hoaxes that these people put out. Absolutely incredible. And I'm a walking dart board

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because I point out this stuff when I called the day of the top, predicted the crash to kick off the bare market. And now we're in the second leg down of the bare market. And again, they're they've shouted me down back in May. Was coin

Speaker A

for the next leg down of the bare market. You got to listen to a lot of foolish nonsense from people right before they get wrecked. Happened at the top. It happened in May with the lower high. Happened back in January with the

Speaker A

lower high. People never ever learn. At least the moon boys never learn. Again, we're bouncing. But after Bitcoin dropped 21% for the month and is down 30% in May and June when I called the May 6 peak as we rallied into the

Speaker A

10-month moving average here in the monthly time frame and into that 200 day in the daily nothing goes straight down.

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You're going to see bounces along the way, but the bottom is not here at 57,000 just as I told you it wasn't at 60,000 just as it told you it wasn't at 80,000.

Speaker A

So, we'll see what kind of candlestick forms today. Again, here it is on the daily. I told you right here, we peaked on May 6th. I had all kinds of warning signs. If you're following along, you remember momentum warning signs. We got

Speaker A

right there and then at the lower high that set up and then the divergences that formed.

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So, I caught another peak on May 6th and we broke down. We got rejection at the 200. As I warned you, I told you the moon boys were told. So, we're about to get a golden cross of 50. The green

Speaker A

line's about to get above the 200. Yeah. 200 250,000 before the summer ends. I told you the 50 was likely not going to get above the 200. And again, pre parameter was warning we were going to get a another crash laid down. U again I

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posted that chart along with others and was shouted down yet proven yet correct again. But the breakdown of the rising wedge evolved into a head and shoulders.

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Head and shoulders broke down. Uh we eventually broke the 50 the green line back tested it then went down to the 100 bounced and then broke down from there and then broke down from the bare flag couple move tell me oh this is a bullish

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channel this isn't a bare flag it's a bare flag continuation and it's a measured move and you know where the measured move measures down to 15,000 15 16,000 nevertheless uh again there's a couple different ways I could count this

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I think we've got a wave one done here the blue count here and I think we're in wave two possible uh that this is not a wave one or two. I told you it could be a larger ABC if we

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just start seeing Bitcoin drop. My guess is that you're going to get this wave two and I this is what I think's going on. So, I think we'll see some kind of pullback. Maybe we get a hanging man

Speaker A

today here and we get a pullback and then we go higher. But this can go on for a week or two. Maybe a little bit longer. Maybe a little bit shorter here.

Speaker A

But maybe a week or two we can get this ABC move. But again, if we get something bigger, you're going towards the 100 and 200, but you're not going to go above the 200. Unlikely that you're going to

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make it above the 100 period moving average, which is just above 70,000, right at the 71,000 area. More likely, you're going to stall at 70,000 or less.

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And a good chance you're going to stall closer to the 38.2 Fibonacci, which you have marked right here. And that is from this entire decline.

Speaker A

The 38.2 2 Fibonacci is currently at the 67,300 area. The 50% retracement at the 70,300 area. So again, I'll be watching those levels. Uh again, the 50 period here, declining 50. We'll see if we end up trying to get above it or not. Could

Speaker A

pull back and then make an attempt to get above it. We'll see. It's going to continue to decline. The 100 period, if we pull back and rally, we could rally into a declining 100 period moving average. Like I said, you're probably

Speaker A

not going to get above this 200. currently at 74,000. The weekly charts are in agreement with that. The 20we is currently the 20 in the weekly time frame is currently at the 70,000 area.

Speaker A

Oops, wrong one. 70,000 right here near our 100 period. So again, it's likely that the 70,000 level. The rally will be terminated at 70,000 or less.

Speaker A

We're bouncing after these bullish divergences, but again, you're rallying into declining moving averages that again and and you'll probably get a Fibonacci retracement and end up stalling, but uh maybe just below this level or just above it again uh at the

Speaker A

38.2 at 67,000 or maybe closer to 70,000. And I just want to draw your attention to the 100 period moving average because the upper end of the cloud, the trending cloud is right there at that level. So if we do clear if say

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say we uh you know pull back say we pull back right here right now uh and we may go higher um but if and we may go towards the 50 or or pull back right here but say we pull back and then we go

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higher or go to the 50 and pull back and then go higher. You want to be watching the 100 in the cloud. The 100 is going to continue to decline but that's going to be some serious resistance. If we do

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go higher and pull back, then the moon boys will go, it's an inverse head and SHOULDERS PATTERN. IT'S A BREAKOUT and we'll go up and probably that'll be the end of it. Just like, you know, they're easily duped by the the fake

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breakouts. Over here, we had a couple of them. Uh back over here, we had a fake breakout. The 100 period moving average.

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Back at the top was a fake phony baloney plastic banana. Good time rock and roll.

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fake breakout. I say a lot of these people buy into this nonsense I was talking about today. Oh, oh, TRUMP'S THE NEW CRYPTO. JOE TRUMP'S A CRYPTO GUY.

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BARE MARKET'S OVER. AGAIN, people buy into that kind of nonsense and it causes them to buy fake breakouts or to buy the dip that keeps on dipping and to to, you know, a lot of people hodddle not by

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choice, but because they make stupid decisions in buying into all the hype andopium nonsense rather than just looking at the charts, looking and being objective. Again, I really don't care which way Bitcoin goes, up or down. I can make money either way. Right now,

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I'm bearish, but we're going to eventually bottom. There's going to be a great buying opportunity. Those of us that have been paying attention are going to be able to buy Bitcoin for pennies on the dollar. Those that bought

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into the hype and hopeopium nonsense, they're either holding losing positions, riding a Bitcoin all the way down through the bare market or getting liquidated over and over again or getting stomped out with big losses.

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That's what hype and will do to you. It will wreck you. Be objective.

Topics:Bitcoincryptobear marketwave analysisElliott Wavetechnical indicatorsFibonacci retracementTrump cryptocrypto tradingBTC price analysis

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Bitcoin bear market officially over according to this video?

The video suggests the bear market may be ending as wave two of a corrective rally is underway with multiple bullish signals, but cautions that a larger decline could still follow.

What does the analyst say about Trump's comments on crypto?

Trump's pro-crypto stance is viewed positively, but the analyst warns against trading Bitcoin based on hype from such comments.

What technical levels are important to watch for Bitcoin's price?

Key resistance is expected near the 200-period moving average around $74,000-$75,000, with support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $67,000.

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