Трамп теряет власть? Почему после 3 ноября США и мир ждёт экономический шторм в 2027 году

What is being decided in the US on November 3rd is essentially Americans voting on whether there will be a global crisis or not. Trump is losing control over both chambers. The president gets a certain incentive to provoke an economic crisis and then blame it, as usual, not only on Zelensky, but also on the Democrats. And, by the way, this is just a hypothesis for now, but if it plays out, it will be a bombshell. Imagine a movie theater, everyone is watching a blockbuster, and suddenly the door opens and someone shouts, "Fire!" The pros will escape without even being noticed. But as for the rest of the crowd, wherever they run, they simply won't make it in time. There won't be enough money for everyone. In general, I suspect that buying a long-term US government bond today with a yield above five percent annually is one of the best trades for 2027. Hello. Today we will talk about the US elections. What the chances are, where this is all heading, and most importantly, what the market consequences will be for the dollar, gold, stocks, and bonds. I have prepared a detailed study on this topic. The study itself will only be available to Patreon and Lifehacks subscribers. But here, I recommend you watch and listen carefully, and take note of what concerns your investments, savings, and business. Well, the first thing to note is that significant elections take place in the US every 2 years. And that is a very good thing. It keeps politicians constantly on their toes. They realize that they will have to face an exam in 2 years. You can't relax. And note that the fact that elections occur every 2 years works very well for the US because, in essence, their system of checks and balances is working. Even during Trump's time, the US did not slide into a dictatorship. And it's clear who is answering for the antics. So, on November 3rd, there are midterms in which almost half of the US Congress is up for reelection. Right now, the chances of the Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, both the lower and upper, are 62%. The upper is the Senate, the lower is, well, just the lower chamber of Congress. This means the prevailing odds are that the Republicans will lose control over both chambers. Trump is losing control over both chambers. And in such a state, the US president is usually called a "lame duck." Meaning, his legs are hobbled, and he will be forced to coordinate his actions with the parliament, with Congress. But it is not yet a foregone conclusion. And, by the way, this is exactly why Trump is so furious. That is why he blames Zelensky, saying he is the one at fault. Well, once again, Zelensky is to blame for Trump losing the election. Of course, shifting the blame from the sick head to the healthy one is a sacred duty. So, why Trump? Well, because he sees how expensive diesel and gasoline are affecting his ratings. You could really see the dynamic clearly. Once the war between the US, Israel, and Iran began, oil prices skyrocketed. The Republicans' ratings—they had firmly held the upper house until then, while Democrats only held the lower house. So, the situation was good for Trump and the Republicans, as they still held the lion's share of power. But as soon as the war started and gas prices soared—which had nothing to do with Ukraine—Republican ratings collapsed and have only been getting worse since, because there’s no end in sight to the war, and no end to these high prices for gas and diesel. And this deal, "I'll just buy some diesel from them"—well, we know where a deal with the devil leads, and it’s definitely not heaven. Practically everyone is certain—political analysts, the betting markets—that the Democrats will take the lower house of Congress. So, the lower house is almost certainly going to the Democrats. I mean, the chances right now are 90%. As for the Senate going to the Democrats, well, you have to look at that together with the lower house, it's 62%. Accordingly, there is still a 38% chance that the Republicans will hold onto the upper house. And it's important to understand why this scares Trump so much. Because it’s not just about the budget or splitting the budget, not just that he will be forced to negotiate with the Democratic Party, primarily on budget issues, but not only those. It is also a question of impeachment, because the Democrats have already warned that as soon as they enter Congress, they will immediately begin the procedure to prepare for Trump's impeachment. In all likelihood, the impeachment as such will not actually happen. Remember Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. They really dragged him through the mud. And the issue there wasn't the sexual scandal as such—although for puritanical America that is a very serious charge against a sitting president—but the issue was that he lied under oath, saying he had no sexual contact with Monica Lewinsky. It turned out there was stuff that is better not to talk about on YouTube, just in case they decide to ban our wonderful video. Anyway, it will definitely be a nerve-wracking experience, so Trump needs to start preparing—not by packing his bags for prison, but by getting lawyers ready to defend him in all sorts of hearings. It’s generally the kind of story that clearly doesn't sit well with Trump, who is an actor—he's an actor plus a wheeler-dealer, a fearsome combination. And he’s clearly not going to like that at all. And for 2 years, twenty-seven to twenty-eight, he will not be in the best of health. And that is why he is taking it out on Zelenskyy right now. Allegedly Zelenskyy is to blame, but in reality, it's all very simple. Well, in reality, he made a mistake with Iran and it didn't work out. It didn't work out in 3 days with Iran, like Putin thought. With Ukraine in 3 days. Well, it’s the same thing here, the very same problem. So, the battle for the Senate is underway right now. Whoever wins the Senate, they will hold the power. The Republicans will fight to the very end. The Democrats, well, the Democrats too. I am publishing the freshest data. And the Democrats need to get 51 seats, because if it's 50-50, then Vice President Vance's vote becomes decisive. And we saw this under the Democrats too, when Kamala Harris was Vice President, and in many votes, it was her vote that decided the outcome. Right now, the Republicans have the majority, plus there is Vance, the additional vote, the fifty-first. Therefore, the Democrats need at least 51 seats because the Vice President is a Republican, a Trump man. Right now the Democrats have 47 seats, 34 of which are not up for re-election, so they need to win 17 seats. Below is a simulation based on Kalshi's estimates. It is an alternative to Polymarket. They also place bets on every state as of October 13th. And those who get access to this file can interactively play around with it. You click on each state, and you can choose who will end up winning. But we don't need such complications right now. It is enough to understand here that, uh, right now the Democrats have about, well, 51 seats, yes, it seems, but it's very thin. Recent polls, however, show that Republicans risk losing more seats than was believed just a week ago. And once again, the longer gas prices remain—well, don't fall—the more they don't fall, the better the chances that the Democrats will seize the Senate. The Democrats' target is eight states. In four states, they will most likely definitely take the seats. And those are Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan. And the battle is going on in nine states. Well, if you play around with the simulator, it’s clear that in almost all scenarios the Democrats will get 51 seats, control, and maybe even a little more. For now, it all comes out to them having 51 seats. That is, not a total majority, but it will be enough for them to rattle Trump's nerves and, of course, to gain total or full control over both chambers of Congress. There are several states where a very tight battle is unfolding, an

blame it, as usual, not only on Zelensky, but also on the Democrats. And, by the way, this is just a hypothesis for now, but if it plays out , it will be a bombshell. Imagine a movie theater, everyone is watching a

blockbuster, and suddenly the door opens and someone shouts, "Fire!"; the pros will escape without even being noticed. But as for the rest of the crowd, wherever they run, they simply won't make it in time. There won't be enough money for everyone. In general,

I suspect that buying a long-term US government bond today with a yield above five percent annually is one of the best trades for 2027. Hello. Today we will talk about the US elections.

What the chances are, where this is all heading, and most importantly, what the market consequences will be for the dollar, gold, stocks, and bonds. I have prepared a detailed study on this topic . The study itself will only be

available to Patreon and Lifehacks subscribers. But here, I recommend you watch and listen carefully, and take note of what concerns your investments, savings, and business. Well, the first thing to note is that significant elections take place in the US every 2

years. And that is a very good thing. It keeps politicians constantly on their toes. They realize that they will have to face an exam in 2 years. You can't relax. And note that the fact that elections occur every 2 years

works very well for the US because, in essence, their system of checks and balances is working. Even during Trump's time, the US did not slide into a dictatorship. And it's clear who is answering for the antics. So, on

November 3rd, there are midterms in which almost half of the US Congress is up for reelection. Right now, the chances of the Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, both the lower and upper, are 62%. The upper is the

Senate, the lower is, well, just the lower chamber of Congress. This means the prevailing odds are that the Republicans will lose control over both chambers. Trump is losing control over both chambers. And in such a state, the US president is usually called a "lame

duck." Meaning, his legs are hobbled, and he will be forced to coordinate his actions with the parliament, with Congress. But it is not yet a foregone conclusion. And, by the way, this is exactly why Trump is so furious. That

is why he blames Zelensky, saying he is the one at fault. Well, once again, Zelensky is to blame for Trump losing the election. Of course, shifting the blame from the sick head to the healthy one is a sacred duty. So, why Trump?

Well, because he sees how expensive diesel and gasoline are affecting his ratings. You could really see the dynamic clearly. Once the war between the US, Israel, and Iran began, oil prices skyrocketed. The Republicans ' ratings—they had firmly held the

upper house until then, while Democrats only held the lower house. So, the situation was good for Trump and the Republicans, as they still held the lion's share of power. But as soon as the war started and gas prices soared

—which had nothing to do with Ukraine —Republican ratings collapsed and have only been getting worse since, because there’s no end in sight to the war, and no end to these high prices for gas and diesel. And this deal, "I'll just buy some diesel from

them"—well, we know where a deal with the devil leads, and it’s definitely not heaven. Practically everyone is certain—political analysts, the betting markets—that the Democrats will take the lower house of Congress.

So, the lower house is almost certainly going to the Democrats. I mean, the chances right now are 90%. As for the Senate going to the Democrats, well, you have to look at that together with the lower house, it's 62%. Accordingly,

there is still a 38%chance that the Republicans will hold onto the upper house. And it's important to understand why this scares Trump so much. Because it’s not just about the budget or splitting the budget, not just that he

will be forced to negotiate with the Democratic Party, primarily on budget issues, but not only those. It is also a question of impeachment, because the Democrats have already warned that as soon as they enter Congress, they will immediately begin the procedure to

prepare for Trump's impeachment. In all likelihood, the impeachment as such will not actually happen. Remember Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. They really dragged him through the mud. And the issue there wasn't the sexual scandal as such—although for puritanical America that is a very

serious charge against a sitting president—but the issue was that he lied under oath, saying he had no sexual contact with Monica Lewinsky. It turned out there was stuff that is better not to talk about on YouTube, just in case they decide to ban our

wonderful video. Anyway, it will definitely be a nerve-wracking experience, so Trump needs to start preparing—not by packing his bags for prison, but by getting lawyers ready to defend him in all sorts of hearings.

It’s generally the kind of story that clearly doesn't sit well with Trump, who is an actor—he's an actor plus a wheeler-dealer, a fearsome combination.

And he’s clearly not going to like that at all. And for 2 years, twenty-seven to twenty-eight, he will not be in the best of health. And that is why he is taking it out on Zelenskyy right now. Allegedly Zelenskyy is to

blame, but in reality, it's all very simple. Well, in reality, he made a mistake with Iran and it didn't work out. It didn't work out in 3 days with Iran, like Putin thought. With Ukraine in 3 days. Well, it’s the same thing

here, the very same problem. So, the battle for the Senate is underway right now. Whoever wins the Senate, they will hold the power. The Republicans will fight to the very end. The Democrats, well, the Democrats too. I am

publishing the freshest data. And the Democrats need to get 51 seats, because if it's 50-50, then Vice President Vance's vote becomes decisive. And we saw this under the Democrats too, when Kamala Harris was Vice President, and in many votes, it was her vote that

decided the outcome. Right now, the Republicans have the majority, plus there is Vance, the additional vote, the fifty-first. Therefore, the Democrats need at least 51 seats because the Vice President is a Republican, a Trump man. Right now the

Democrats have 47 seats, 34 of which are not up for re-election, so they need to win 17 seats. Below is a simulation based on Kalshi's estimates.

It is an alternative to Polymarket. They also place bets on every state as of October 13th. And those who get access to this file can interactively play around with it. You click on each state, and you can choose who will end

up winning. But we don't need such complications right now. It is enough to understand here that, uh, right now the Democrats have about, well, 51 seats, yes, it seems, but it's very thin. Recent polls, however, show that Republicans risk losing more seats than

was believed just a week ago. And once again, the longer gas prices remain— well, don't fall—the more they don't fall, the better the chances that the Democrats will seize the Senate. The Democrats' target is eight states. In four states, they will most likely

definitely take the seats. And those are Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan. And the battle is going on in nine states. Well, if you play around with the simulator, it’s clear that in almost all scenarios the Democrats will get 51 seats, control,

and maybe even a little more. For now, it all comes out to them having 51 seats. That is, not a total majority, but it will be enough for them to rattle Trump's nerves and, of course, to gain total or full control over both

chambers of Congress. There are several states where a very tight battle is unfolding, and recently information has emerged that Democrats might gain slightly more votes than Republicans.

Roughly speaking, it was two states, and now there are potentially six, meaning four more have potentially joined the list. And the longer gasoline prices remain at such a high level, the greater the chances for a Democratic victory. But it must be

understood that this is not a reboot of power, and this is also the strength embedded by the Founding Fathers and all subsequent administrations. This system of checks and balances ensures that even if a party wins, it does not

gain total control. What will happen in our case in 2027-2028? The President and his veto power remain in effect until January 2029. We remember that the next presidential election will be in November 2028, and the inauguration in January 2029. Therefore, Trump

remains president. Unless he leaves due to illness, death, or impeachment, he remains president until January 2029.

That is approximately January 21, 2029. Democrats will practically be unable to override a veto because they need two-thirds in each chamber. The Democrats will not get that. But if there are some Republicans who may be unhappy with Trump, in some cases they

could—for example, Trump's deal with Putin on diesel has already caused dissatisfaction among many Republicans.

And such a deal, Congress and the Senate would then be able to cancel and influence Trump. But for now, he still has his presidential veto. Next, the FOMC. That is, the Federal Reserve. A change just recently took place at the

Fed. Orsh was elected, I believe, for a 7-year term. That is also a very proper term during a transition; for example, Powell was appointed by Trump, then Powell helped Biden get re-elected—or rather, try to get re-elected, but it

didn't work out due to illness. And Kamala Harris was clearly not the right candidate; the Democrats made a mistake there. Well, Powell was there under Trump, Biden, and then again under Trump. The same thing here. Orsh might even stay for 14 years, for two terms.

That means he could outlast three or even four presidents. He might see four presidents, perhaps. So, the Fed remains an entirely independent structure. Next, the Bessent twist.

Bessent is the treasurer, the Secretary of the Treasury. That is a separate story. We will talk about the American budget, because the American budget seems far away and unrelated to us. No.

If the Americans implement a strict budget, an economic crisis will sweep the world. And this will be decided only after the election. On November 4th, literally the day after the election, the US Treasury will come out with its first auction announcement.

And it's possible it has already been announced that the US Department of the Treasury will announce some budget innovations after the election.

Especially if it turns out that the president is Trump, but the Democrats hold power in Congress and the Senate, the president might have an incentive to provoke an economic crisis and then blame it, as usual, not only on

Zelensky but also on the Democrats. Who supposedly messed things up in the Senate and Congress. They are to blame for the crisis. It is quite possible, such a scenario exists as well. If it's not for yours, then it's not for ours.

Well, rather, not ours, not yours, well , for no one. Everything, everyone will have a crisis. So, a crisis. Moreover, I am sure that Trump will find a way to profit from the crisis as well. And the next step is tariffs. Tariffs. Trump

introduced them, then the Supreme Court overturned the decision. This, by the way, also shows that the US system of checks and balances works. The Supreme Court overturned Trump's decision to impose tariffs, and after that, refunds began. To whom, by the way, did they

return the money? People didn't get a single cent back. That is, the tariffs were effectively taken from the people, but returned to companies, American companies. And even then, not to everyone; they are returning it little by little. This is also a bit of a

sleight of hand. You introduce a tax, collect money, then oops, something was wrong, and you return the money. But since you didn't take it directly from the people, but from, let's say, tax agents, like retail, like Walmart and

all those major retail chains, they were the ones who primarily acted as the payers. Well, not only them.

Basically, importers paid; everyone who imported paid. And they returned the money to those guys. Well, that's an innovation that Trump, of course, carried out cleverly. Moreover, they collected, I think, 300 billion, and are returning less. So, in any case,

the American budget didn't get poorer; it actually made some money. And so, Trump has the ability to somehow introduce or cancel tariffs. The new Congress could cancel them by law, but that law could run into a veto from

Trump. And to override Trump's veto, you need, again, 2/3 of the votes. So, it's a complicated tug-of-war here.

Therefore, Trump has the opportunity to introduce tariffs. If he wants, especially since he’s been given these draconian, or some kind of super-intense nuclear-level sanctions to impose for supporting Russia or trading with Russia. He can impose them against India, China, yes, or anyone

else. The list of who they can impose sanctions on, or for what reason, is quite open. So, his toolset regarding sanctions or tariffs remains intact.

Budget cliffs. The budget is December 11th, and since it’s already December 11 th—well, in less than two months —the question will arise again: what funds, what budget will be used to finance the US government and government agencies on December 11th.

It turns out the old Congress will have to decide, while the new one starts work in three weeks. And it’s unclear how they will manage during those three weeks. Either they will reach an agreement, or they’ll introduce some

temporary measure, or they’ll wait until January to pass the budget. I think the Republicans will try to push through their budget while they still control both chambers. The Democrats will torpedo the Republican budget. And in this clinch on December 11th, of

course, the real fun will begin in the US. Plus, let’s remember, the national debt limit is 41.1 trillion dollars. A new national debt ceiling has now been set. Well, it’s an endless ceiling, really. They only ever raise the ceiling. I have yet to see

them lower this ceiling. So, they will only keep raising it. Understood. Nobody has any intention of paying back the debts. And this ceiling will be reached in 2027, roughly in May. And they will have to butt heads again over

raising the ceiling. That’s the budget again. In short, it’s all about the budget. In reality, all powers are fighting over the budget. If you look at it that way, they all just want to get to the budget trough. And

lastly, the new Congress begins its work on January 3, 2027. From November 4th to January 3rd, there will be a transition of power, where some congressmen and senators leave their posts, while others prepare to take them. And this will be quite a task for

the new ones. They will elect a speaker ; the "speaker-a-thon" will begin. Well , it’s not an easy task, and it won't be easy for anyone. And all this in the context of a current global economy that is under strain, what with AI,

what with the Middle East, and the non-stop war between Russia and Ukraine . The world is literally glowing red; one more step and a global nuclear war, a third world war, could start. But these guys are like, "Hey, wait a

minute, we need to pick a speaker first , then we'll deal with your international problems." During this time, of course, some autocracies might try to stir up trouble on various fronts. But then, by the way, here is another question: what is the Democrats

'international agenda? What do they want? Who are they for, the Whites or the Reds? Because, well, we remember under Biden, yes, the Democrats helped Ukraine, but not enough for Ukraine to win. Just enough not to lose, yes, but

not to win, because they could have flooded them with weapons back in 2022, provided air defense, aircraft, they could have provided everything, but they didn't. And what do we have right now? The war continues. And what will the Americans do about Iran? Well,

abandoning it feels wrong somehow. It’s a blow to their reputation, but not abandoning it is also difficult.

Well, Trump certainly managed to stir up so much trouble in these 2 years that it looks like we’ll be cleaning it up for a long time. Let’s go through the scenarios. Now, three scenarios for the economy and financial

markets. The first, of course, is the base case scenario: 62%probability. If the Democrats take both chambers, then there is a potential legislative paralysis, because the Democrats and Republicans will try to pass something, Trump will veto it, and they won't be

able to override it. And it's such a mess, and they need to pass a budget.

And if the US, well, the US has been living for many years with a budget deficit of 6%of GDP, thanks to this budget deficit the American economy looks strong, holds up well, financial markets are strong, everything is great

, and here the budget deficit could shrink, for example, to 4%. It seems like a trifle, but in reality, we know the effect where, when a system is strained, sometimes even a feather can crash it. So, what will start on

January 3, 2027? The Democrats will set the agenda for what Congress and the Senate discuss. They will install their own committee chairs in both chambers.

But, at the same time, the veto remains . The president has a veto, and for the Democrats to override it, they need 2/3 , and they won't get that. And budget reconciliation is a way to pass budget legislation without 60 votes in the

Senate. Remember that the Democrats will most likely get 51, maybe 53-54 seats in the Senate. 60, well, for now, well, it doesn't add up to 60 for them.

That means they will still have to negotiate with the Republicans somehow. Again, it’s good that the system of checks and balances works, but the problem here is that the machine will be spinning its wheels. I mean, we need

to pass a budget, we stall. We need to pass an increase in the national debt, we stall. And this will be constant.

And those decisions that used to be made more or less quickly will be harder to make this time. What else?

The Senate confirms judges, cabinet members, and Fed governors. By the way, Powell is still there. He is no longer the Fed Chair, but he remains a Fed governor. There are many of them there, more than a dozen. And so he has

remained there still. He still votes, he goes to work there. His term expires in January 2028. And Trump wants to remove him, remove this Lisa Cook there . That is, he wants to clear out the Democrats and put his own people in.

Well, as usual, everyone wants to put their own people in the coziest, most important spots. But the Senate must confirm that position. And the Senate will most likely become Democratic.

Well, in this scenario, it will definitely become Democratic. And that is it. So there will also be a deadlock in Fed confirmations. Just imagine, terms have ended, and new ones aren't being granted. So how, how are we going

to vote? Neither party, neither Democrats nor Republicans, will be able to pass a single-party fiscal package, all these budgets and taxes. They will be forced to reach bipartisan deals, but that is difficult and causes delays . And if, God forbid, some kind of

crisis starts, we need to urgently allocate stimulus to save the economy, but these guys will start tearing each other's hair out. They won't be focused on stimulus. They will be blaming each other, they will be trampling each other. Well, only when things hit rock

bottom will they finally start negotiating. Meaning there is a risk that the system will go into a decline, the economy will go into a decline because they couldn't agree on the budget. The economy is declining, it needs saving to avoid a crisis, but

they cannot agree. And so I personally increase, the higher the Democrats' rating, the higher my expectations that the US will face an economic crisis in 2027. And, consequently, a global economic crisis. Just because that is how it is. What could be the upsides

here? As for the upsides, well, long-term government bonds will likely rise in price. Actually, I have a suspicion that buying long-term US government bonds today with a yield of five to six percent, almost six, well, over five percent, is one of the best

trades for 2027. Starting from the fall , say from November 4th for a year, it could bring about 20%per annum, maybe even more, especially if a crisis starts, then it will almost certainly be 20 or even over 25 percent. And in

this case, the dollar—usually the dollar gets more expensive during a crisis. This time, during a crisis, it will most likely get cheaper. People will be looking for something safer.

And what will that be? Gold, for sure, right? And possibly even crypto. Bitcoin. By the way, we have a fresh new crypto course coming up, led by Mikhail Serga, so check the link in the description and take a look. But crypto

, in this case, might act as a...well, many will be watching the Republicans and Democrats locked in a clinch. I'd rather step aside somewhere and hide it in something other than a bank, wait it out elsewhere, and those other places

are gold and crypto. At least that’s how it was during the previous big crash. And, by the way, this is just a hypothesis for now, but if it plays out , it’ll be a bombshell. In the banking committees, there will likely

be hearings on private credit and all that nonsense. They’ve piled up 3 trillion dollars there. For now, this story is still swept under the rug and isn't visible, but if banking hearings begin, then the topic of private credit

could really surface. Remember when CDOs crashed and those mortgage loans from 2007 crumbled, leading to the mortgage crisis? The scale here is smaller, but the consequences will be just as serious. Especially since this topic, all these private loans, is

actively financing capital investments in data centers. I mean, if a company wants to build a data center today, it runs to the bank, and the bank says, " No way, I'd rather buy government bonds ." There are no reserves, and interest

rates are at five percent per annum. " Well, I could try to scrape something together by running around to clients." "If my clients are willing to lend to you, then okay, I won't give you my own or the deposits, but I'll run around to

the clients." And so, where did almost everyone run to? Life insurance companies and private lending. They ran there, got the money, and well, they're building data centers. For the last two months, this has been a problem. They aren't very keen on lending anymore,

and the money has probably run out. Plus, with these elections, you have to understand that Democrats might put spokes in the wheels, plus they aren't issuing permits, you need to bring in gas, electricity, and so on. "This data

center is making too much noise." People are unhappy, and there’s an election coming up. No, the people are unhappy with the data centers. And when there’s an election, you need to be good to the people, not to the data

centers. And so it turns out that this theme could certainly be demonized, and by being demonized, it could explode at the most inopportune moment and pop the capital investment bubble in data centers, which supports this whole artificial intelligence stock story.

People are already, I can see, getting a little nervous. The pros, they say: " We'd better buy some government bonds, move to the sidelines, lock in a little profit, but we're still in the game, we're not running away yet, but we're,

well, we're just a bit closer to the exit." Imagine a movie theater, everyone is watching a film, maybe some sci-fi blockbuster, and suddenly you realize there’s a faint smell of smoke. Just in case, I’d rather be closer to the exit. I'll keep watching

the movie, but closer to the door. But the main crowd is still sitting there, they haven't budged. And then, the door suddenly swings open, someone shouts: " Fire!" And everyone makes a run for it.

Those who were by the door, they will escape. The pros will escape before you even notice. But where will the rest of the crowd run? They simply won't make it in time. There won't be enough money for everyone. By the way, at that

moment, if there is a liquidity crisis of that nature, gold will certainly fall. And that is exactly the moment you need to take advantage and buy that gold. If it drops 15-20%due to a liquidity crisis, which is possible, it

would be a perfect opportunity to buy gold at a bargain price. What historical analogies do we have? The closest one is 2006, when Bush lost both houses. Let me remind you, the peak of US residential real estate prices was the summer of 2006, right

before the elections. And we remember the consequences: real estate plummeted starting in 2006, and banks collapsed starting in 2007. By 2008, everyone just woke up to the fact that it was over, the music had stopped, but it all

began in 2006. Right now, looking toward '26, exactly 20 years later, history could repeat itself. Well, history might be viewed from a different angle, and it doesn't repeat perfectly, but as we know, it rhymes.

In 1986, Reagan lost the Senate, and the Democrats already held the House at that time. And Reagan became a lame duck in '86, starting in January of 1986. Reagan managed to pass the tax reform of '86 before the elections, so

everything was fine there. But in '87, Greenspan took over the helm and became the head of the Fed. The famous central banker. And in October '87, a record-breaking crash occurred. We have a separate video about that crash, explaining how it all went down. There

was a weak dollar and high yields there . So some elements might be there, but '86 is not the best analogy. However, 2006 is really quite reminiscent of the current situation. But here, in defense of the bulls, I will say that there is

statistics available since 1950. It’s not large enough, but it’s not small either. And in the 6 months after the elections, when the president's party lost control of Congress, the S&P 500 grew by 10%in those 6 months. But in

other cases, it actually grew by 16%. So, it would have been better, of course, for Trump not to lose his control. But for that, he didn't need to be friends with the devil, let's put it mildly, because, well, what can one

advise him? He is such a smart person, the wisest ruler, the wisest Wizard of Oz in this wonderland. That was the first scenario. The second scenario is that the House goes to the Democrats, and the Senate remains with the

Republicans. This is still, well, maybe not 50/50, but around 48-49%, that the Republicans will manage to hold the upper chamber, the Senate. This situation is called a divided Congress.

It is generally good for financial markets. The Democrats will, of course, be a thorn in the side, but they understand that if they push too hard, the Senate will block them, because both chambers need to agree on decisions. And so, when both chambers

are with the Democrats, that's one situation, but when one is with the Democrats and the second with the Republicans, that's a completely different situation that will force them to compromise. Therefore, this is considered a good scenario. If it

happens this way, well, it's good, good for Trump, for the Republicans, and good for the global economy, well, it's also good. And in this case, by the way , regarding impeachment, the lower house can initiate it with a simple

majority. The Democrats, yes, would impeach Trump, but it wouldn't pass the Senate, because in the Senate you need 67 votes. Therefore, impeachment is unlikely here. It is unlikely even in the first case, but there they would act more aggressively. Here, the

Democrats would be less enthusiastic, realizing it won't lead to anything. A similar situation with a divided Congress occurred in 2018-19 under Trump, when the Democrats also took the House, and the Republicans held the Senate. The S&P in 2018 had some tough

times, and the fourth quarter was actually very bad. I believe it was the worst fourth quarter in the history of the US stock market, or one of the worst. There were Fed rate hikes and a trade war. But the Fed came in, printed

money, and everything, everything soared upwards. Then came the 2020 pandemic, which finished off Trump. By the way, there was an impeachment then in December 2019; he was acquitted in February 2020. So, they somehow made it to impeachment, but it was a lot of

noise. And this time, well, it will definitely be no less than in 2019. But will there be more? If the Democrats take the Senate, then there will be more. Well, again, that just means more frayed nerves. There was also an

incident under Obama, when Obama lost in 2010-2011. And then the US faced the fact that on August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded the US credit rating for the first time. They played with fire.

There is a threat here too that in this divided Congress, with this "lame duck, " the US will continue to lose its credit rating. This will be bad for both bonds and the US dollar. But bonds will react more strongly to the economy

. That is, if there are problems in the economy, money will flee from stocks into bonds, and bonds will ultimately be fine. But as for the dollar, alternatives to the dollar are, once again, gold and bitcoin. Well, and the

third scenario, there's no point in even discussing it because it's extremely unlikely—that Republicans will retain control over both chambers is the best scenario from the perspective of the economy and markets.

And people would, of course, be in ecstasy, buying up all the stocks in the fourth quarter of this year if that happens. But this is an extremely unlikely scenario. Unless, perhaps, in the days remaining after this video until November 3rd, oil prices suddenly

collapse to, say, $ 60? Gasoline will get cheaper, and communism will basically begin. Trump will announce that he has defeated everyone and reconciled everyone. I mean, he—well, his task is to win the election. All his fervor will disappear once the

elections are over, and all of Trump's unifying, conciliatory zeal will go right along with them. He'll go back to making money. Well, we won't discuss this scenario and waste a lot of time.

And now, more professionally and specifically, regarding the influence of all these post-election interpretations on the financial market . Scenario number one. Democrats control both chambers. And we see a red president and both chambers blue. In this case, there will be blockages of

various laws, but a 2/3 majority is needed to override a veto. Therefore, they will reach compromises on the budget; there will most likely be a reduction in the budget deficit, because Democrats are usually for tax increases, and Republicans are against

them. The president will block tax increases. Republicans are against various expenditures—he will try to push through spending, and the Democrats will block it. As a result, no growing expenses, no tax hikes. In this situation, the budget deficit usually shrinks. And that is why I say

that US government bonds will most likely be interesting. Interest rates are high, and one of the main reasons for these high interest rates, the large budget deficit, will most likely be neutralized, or at least lowered.

Well, there is a second reason—that is, large capital investments in data centers. In this case, it will also most likely be neutralized. It has already begun, we can see it in the market. And both these reasons will lead to a point where buying long-term

government bonds becomes very interesting. But we also need to understand which path they will take, Republicans and Democrats, whether they will seek compromise and reach an agreement. Then the economy, well, won't slump, it will be more or less

okay. The economy will be decided elsewhere, not in Congress, not in the US government. But if these guys get into a political stalemate and cannot agree on the budget, then they will provoke an economic crisis. Then, well, then whatever happens, will happen.

Therefore, we will be watching the budget battles starting November 4th. Remember the dates: November 4, December 11, and January 4. Those are the three dates. And between these dates, there will be turmoil, and information will be coming in about

what is happening: compromise or confrontation. If the Republicans still hold the Senate, the upper house, in that case, there will be a similar situation with the budget, but with a better chance for compromise, so the market will value that better. And in

that case, the stock market will most likely rise after the elections. We'll see about the bonds. We'll need to study what Bessent will announce there, starting from November 4th, or maybe a little later. He has two key points

there. The first point is simply the official announcement regarding the plans for issuing government bonds on November 4th. But Bessent's speech, it is currently being drafted, being prepared on the budget, but the date, the date has not been announced yet. So

, if Democrats and Republicans are in a divided Congress, that is a good scenario for stocks. If the Democrats win both houses, then the consensus today is that stocks will drop by about 10%. But after that, perhaps they will

decline. Then, possibly, there will be a Christmas rally, and then we will look for compromise or confrontation.

If there is a compromise, then okay. Well, there are chances that we will get through without a crisis. If there is confrontation, then, well, we row for shore. Then people will be more actively taking their money, their chips off the table. Right now, people

are sitting, well, they are mostly taking a wait-and-see position. We are sort of standing at the exit of the cinema, but we are not leaving yet. Yes . What else, by the way, should be noted regarding crypto in this case? If

the Democrats gain control over both houses, then they may start to stall Trump's initiatives for the development of crypto and tokenization. In that case, we'll have to see about crypto, maybe it won't be the best asset. So, we will need to see what the behavior

of the Democrats will be. Well, and there is some statistics. The average annual return of the S&P from 1926 to 2023. Similar election situations, practically over the last 100 years. If Republicans held all three branches, which was only 13 years, the average

annual S&P return was 14 percent. If Democrats held all three branches, which was 36 years, it was 14 percent annually—a good result. If there was a split Congress, but the president was a Democrat, it was 16.6 percent annually. This occurred for 15 years.

So, this was the best scenario, but now the president is clearly not a Democrat by all indications. It is a Republican.

And so we are looking specifically at this option. Split Congress and a Republican president. This occurred for 34 years, with a return of 7.3 percent —the worst. Therefore, 2027 is currently trending to be a very, very difficult year. As long as politicians

are so divided and so aggressively set against each other, they could lead the U.S. first to a financial crisis, which will lead to an economic crisis. And naturally, the Chinese economy, which is already in a depression, will head

there too, as will the European economy . And we will all end up there then.

Therefore, what is being decided in the U.S. on November 3rd is essentially Americans voting on whether there will be a global crisis or not. It’s not 100 percent certain, of course, that they will definitely quarrel, definitely not reach an agreement, and

definitely cause a crisis, but the probability is growing. And it grows even more the longer oil remains high.

And in closing, I will remind you of a key figure. 62 percent that Democrats will win both chambers. Then we should prepare for turbulence, and assets should be more protected. If the Republicans manage to hold onto the upper chamber, well, then we can

prepare for a seasonal rally, an increase in stock prices. Bonds. We will look separately at U.S. Treasury announcements and what is happening with data centers, artificial intelligence—that is, things that politicians influence, but not very strongly. But they influence the budget

very strongly. And it is the battle for the budget that could throw a wrench in the development of artificial intelligence, blockchain, and other innovations, because we are talking about pharmaceuticals, rare-earth metals—well, there is just a mountain of pressing problems that require

cooperation between politicians, Democrats and Republicans, not confrontation. Well, we will watch, we will follow. And on the other hand, I think that everything will be fine in the U.S. The system of checks and balances in the U.S. works, and this

allows the States to remain the number one economy in terms of innovation, financial markets, and economic terms.

Therefore, even if there is some kind of crisis, it will just be a great reason to buy great assets at good prices. Thank you for watching until the end. Once again, I invite you to our latest crypto seminar; the link is

in the description. And this file will be available to Life subscribers and Patreons. Thank you, goodbye.