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If you're looking at a player's last 15 games to project a prop, you're doing it backwards.
Rob Pizzola explains why using hit rates from recent games as true probabilities in NBA prop betting is a logical error, and outlines four reasons hit rates break down.
Key Takeaways
- A hit rate from recent games is not a probability and should not be used as one to find betting edges.
- Results depend heavily on arbitrary sample windows and on contextual factors the hit rate ignores.
- Alternate-line hit rates can create the illusion of edge and are especially misleading.
- Bettors should focus on forward-looking projections that account for today's matchup, minutes, and lineup conditions.
What the video covers
- Hit rate (e.g., 18 of 20 games over a line) is backward-looking and is not the same as a forward-looking probability that accounts for today's game conditions.
- Treating a hit rate as a true probability is described as the most common logical error in prop betting today.
- Reason 1: Endpoint selection is arbitrary; changing the number of games (15, 20, 30) can produce wildly different results, so an apparent edge may just reflect where counting started.
- Reason 2: Hit rates ignore context within the sample, such as injuries to teammates, inflated usage, opponent quality, or overtime minutes, treating all games as identical.
- Reason 3: The 'cups with balls' analogy used by a commenter is flawed because sports outcomes are uncertain and variable, not a fixed distribution that can be counted.
- Reason 4: Applying the same flawed logic to alternate lines makes the error worse, as the hit rate climbs down the alternates ladder and creates a false sense of edge.
- The video promises a real NBA example where hit rate suggests one bet side while the actual process suggests the opposite.
- The creator presents Circles Off as a channel focused on the processes behind bets rather than picks or parlays.
Chapters
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
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And it's the single biggest reason most prop bettors are losing money right now.
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You've seen this before.
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You've seen it on Twitter, on YouTube, in paid Discords.
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It looks like math, it feels like an edge, but it's neither.
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In the next 15 minutes, I'm going to show you why this approach produces the wrong answer.
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What you should actually be looking at instead.
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And later on in this video, I'm going to walk you through a real example in the NBA where the hit rate tells you to bet one side and the actual process says to bet the other.
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Stick around to the end because there's a piece of advice in here for every bettor.
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You need to hear it and you need to remember it.
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Here we go.
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First, let me show you what I'm talking about.
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An NBA player has an alternate total of over 20.5 points at minus 400.
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You pull up his last 20 games, you see he went over 20.5 in 18 of them.
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That's 90%.
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The implied probability at minus 400 is 80%.
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So, you say there's a 10% edge.
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There is some real value here.
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And it sounds right.
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But it isn't.
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It's wrong.
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And here is the most important thing I want you to understand.
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Your hit rate is not a probability.
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A probability is forward-looking.
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It accounts for the conditions of today's game.
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The matchup, the minutes, who's in the lineup, who's out of the lineup.
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A hit rate is backward-looking.
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It tells you what already happened under a completely different set of conditions.
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Now, treating a hit rate as a true probability is not a shortcut.
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It is a logical error, and it is the most common logical error that I see in prop betting today.
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If you're new to this channel, I'm Rob Pizzola.
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I bet for a living.
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Circles Off is where I show the actual processes that I use for betting.
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Not picks, not parlays, the work behind the bets.
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If that's what you're looking for, this video is going to be useful.
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Now, let me give you four reasons why hit rate breaks down.
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First is endpoint selection.
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Why 20 games?
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Why not 15?
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Why not 30?
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The number is arbitrary, and small changes to it produce wildly different results.
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If your edge depends on where you draw the line, you don't actually have an edge.
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You have a result of where you decided to start counting.
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Second, there is no context inside those games.
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Were teammates out for part of that stretch and a player's usage was inflated?
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Was there a run of bottom-five defenses?
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Was there a couple of overtime games that added minutes?
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The hit rate treats every game as identical, but they are not.
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Third, and this is the one that gets people heated when I bring it up.
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A few months ago, we did a reaction video to a LineMaker Sports video with Isaac Rose Burman here in studio.
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And we said the same thing I'm going to tell you right now.
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The comments lit up.
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One commenter in particular, this one stuck with me because it is such a clean example of this misconception.
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He said this, and I quote, "If you have 10 cups and eight of them have a ball in them, there is an 80% true probability of picking a cup with a ball."
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On the surface, that sounds right.
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But sports outcomes are not cups with balls in them.
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Cups have a fixed distribution you can count right now.
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Sports outcomes are uncertain.
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They change every night.
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They depend on hundreds of variables that were not present in your sample.
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The cups analogy is the exact mistake.
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Past results are not a fixed probability that you can read off the page.
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Now, if this is starting to click for you, hit the like button down below.
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It tells YouTube to push this content to other people who actually want to learn the process instead of just getting fed pick of the day type of content.
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It genuinely helps us.
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Now, I want you to remember this cups analogy because I'm going to come back to it when we look at the actual projection in a few minutes.
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Fourth and final, this same flawed logic gets applied to alternate lines, and the math is even worse there.
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Watch this.
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Same player, the main line over 20.5, no edge by hit rate.
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So, you scroll the alternates.
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Over 17.5 at minus 250.
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Well, he went over that in 14 of 20.
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Over 14.5 at minus 400.
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17 of 20.
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Over 11.5 at minus 50.
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19 of 20.
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Each step down the alternates ladder, the hit rate looks better and better, and the edge magically appears.
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But it's not appearing.
Topics:prop bettinghit rateNBA player propsalternate linesimplied probabilitysports betting analysisbetting edgeCircles Offexpected valuesample size
