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How To ACTUALLY Find Your Edge In Sports Betting | Presented By Underdog

Circles Off host Rob Piza interviews Mike (@MrPeanutButter), a former actuary turned sports betting trader, about his background, college football betting, and sharp betting strategies.

Key Takeaways

  • Sharp betting edges often come from finding props and markets the public hasn't adjusted to yet.
  • College football lines can be less efficient and move late in the week due to injury news uncertainty.
  • Betting success requires consistent process such as checking boards regularly and shopping across books.
  • The sports betting analytics space is maturing, making edges harder to find over time.

What the video covers

  • Episode of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, presented by Underdog, with host Rob Piza.
  • Underdog is promoted as an easy pick-higher-or-lower DFS-style platform, with a sign-up code offering bonus credit and a free Bobby Witt Jr. pick.
  • Guest Mike (@MrPeanutButter) is relatively new to professional sports betting, having started seriously about three years ago.
  • Mike was previously an actuary and wrote sports content on the side, hoping to break into sports through the back door.
  • He was promoted into a trading role at a betting company, where early company rules restricted traders from betting.
  • The conversation covers college football betting workflow, including when lines move and how injury news affects pricing.
  • Discussion of player prop markets, including checking boards in the morning for mispriced lines and betting props across many books.
  • Topics include how analytics and sharp tools are becoming more widespread in betting, similar to baseball analytics.
  • Mike shares views on the gambling content creator ecosystem and why audiences follow personalities over time.
  • The episode touches on NBA prop mispricings (e.g., a tall player's jump ball edge), NFL Pro Bowl scoring changes, and industry figures like Bill Connelly.

Answers

Questions about this video

Who is the guest on this episode of Circles Off?

The guest is Mike, known on Twitter as @MrPeanutButter. He is a sports bettor who previously worked as an actuary and later became a trader in the betting industry.

How long has the guest been seriously betting?

According to the transcript, Mike only started betting seriously about three years ago, and before that his betting was casual and not profitable.

What sponsor is promoted in the video?

The show is presented by Underdog, a pick-higher-or-lower platform where users can enter based on player projections. New users signing up with code CIRCLES can get up to $1,000 in bonus credit and a free pick.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00
Speaker A
Let me tell you, you want to talk about a sweat when nobody gives a... about the game that's occurring. And I'm like, why? I'm like, you've got to get out of bounds. They're just casually jogging around them, screaming for team.
00:18
Speaker A
Eli, welcome, to, circles, off, part, of, the hammer, betting, Network, and, presented, by Underdog, I'm, Rob, Piza, we, got, another interview, for, this, week, a, guest, that I've, been, looking, forward, to interviewing, for, a, long, time, cuz, I, don't
00:32
Speaker A
Eli, welcome to Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network, and presented by Underdog. I'm Rob Piza. We've got another interview for this week, a guest that I've been looking forward to interviewing for a long time, because I don't really know anything about him. We interact a lot online, spoke a couple times through Twitter DMs, but aside from that, I'm going into this one pretty blind. So we're going to get to that in just one second, but I do want to shout out our show sponsor, Underdog. If you haven't checked them out already, I would highly suggest that you do. Check out Underdog. It's a quick, easy way for you to get in on the action. You don't have to spend hours researching. That's where Underdog comes in. They have a pick them there. There's no overthinking things. You don't have to stress about line movement, no debating which number you should take at different books. It's just an easy game. You pick higher or lower on player projections, you submit your entry, you enjoy the ride. Right now, new users who sign up with code CIRCLES get up to $1,000 in bonus credit, plus a free pick today. That free pick is Major League Baseball's Bobby Witt Jr. to have higher than half a plate appearance. Bobby Witt Jr.! I like that one. Yeah, that's it. I mean, the guy's got to come up to the dish. You win. It's as simple as that. Baseball season is here. Look, I know a lot of you out there have been following Circles Off for a long time, and we are synonymous with being this sharp brand. We've talked about stuff on how to beat the books before. But if you're someone that just wants to take it easy, wants to sit back, have some fun, it's okay. Sometimes there's a spot for that. You don't have to worry about market efficiency or being available 24/7 to bet or anything like that. Underdog gives you that. It's an easy, enjoyable way to play. All you've got to do is use your sports knowledge. You get in on some action. It's as simple as that. If you're looking for something different, sign up with code CIRCLES today, use the link down in the description below, grab that free pick, test it out, see what you think. Here we go.
00:43
Speaker A
out, our, show, sponsor, underdog, if, you haven't, checked, them, out, already, I, would highly, suggest, that, you, do, check, out Underdog, it's, a, quick, easy, way, for, you to, get, in, on, the, action, you, don't, have to, spend, hours, researching, that's, where
00:58
Speaker A
Our guest on this week's episode is someone that I really don't know much about. I started following him on Twitter fairly recently because he caught my attention for a lot of his takes in the space. You can follow him on Twitter, @MrPeanutButter, Mr. Peanut Butter. Mike joins us on Circles Off this week. Mike, how's it going?
01:10
Speaker A
projections, you, submit, your, entry, you enjoy, the, ride, right, now, new, users, who sign, up, with, code, circles, get, up, to $1,000, in, bonus, credit, plus, a, free, pick today, that, free pick, is, Major, League, Baseball's, Bobby wit, Jr, to, have, higher, than, half, a, plate
01:32
Speaker A
Uh, good. Happy to be on, Rob. This is one of my favorite shows, so, uh, bless to be on.
01:44
Speaker A
been, following, circles, off, for, a, long time, and, we, are, synonymous, with, being this, Sharp, brand, we've, talked, about stuff, on, how, to, beat, the, books, before but, if, you're, someone, that, just, wants, to take, it, easy, wants, to, sit, back, have, some
01:59
Speaker A
You don't have to butter me up in the early going or anything like that. It's totally fine.
02:14
Speaker A
your, sports, knowledge, you, get, in, on, some action, it's, as, simple, as, that, if, you're looking, for, something, different, sign, up with, code, circles, today, use, the, link down, in, the, description, below, grab, that free, pick, test, it, out, see, what, you
02:28
Speaker A
Wow. Yeah, I was hoping. I know you're a hard-hitting journalist, so I was just trying to get you on my side here for these hard-hitting questions later.
02:40
Speaker A
space, you, can, follow, him, on, Twitter mrmr, panut, better, Mr, Peanut, better, Mike joins, us, on, circles, off, this, week, Mike how's, it going, uh, good, happy, to, be, on, Rob, this one, of, my, favorite, shows, so, uh, bless, to
02:57
Speaker A
Yes, absolutely. Uh, great strategy in the early going.
03:07
Speaker A
these, hard-hitting, questions, later, yes absolutely, uh, great, strategy, in, the early, going, um, okay, so, I, first, came across, you, um, and, I, thought, your, account was, really, interesting, both, in, the, sense that, it, was, funny, uh, a, lot, of, your
03:21
Speaker A
Um, okay. So I first came across you, um, and I thought your account was really interesting, both in the sense that it was funny. Uh, a lot of your tweets resonated with me. You've built up kind of this reputation in the sharper side of gambling Twitter over the past year, maybe a little bit more than that, but I don't think uh, anyone really knows how you got started in the space. Um, so if you can, what's your background in sports betting? How did you get involved?
03:35
Speaker A
um, so, if, you, can, what's, your, background in, sports, betting, how, did, you, get involved, yeah, I, think, um, I, one, thing that, probably, is, surprising, to, some people, I, haven't, been, betting, for, that long, I'm, pretty, new, to, the, space, um
03:48
Speaker A
Yeah, I think, um, one thing that probably is surprising to some people is I haven't been betting for that long. I'm pretty new to the space. Um, really started betting only seriously, or I guess being in the industry, as you know, some people would say, um, in regards to GRP. But, uh, only started doing that about three years ago. Uh, I started as a trader. Um, before that, I was betting casually, but nothing that was certainly profitable. Definitely was minus EV, definitely was down all that. Um, but really wasn't doing it seriously at all. So basically everything, um, that I have kind of experienced as a bettor has been within the past three years. So I would say that's, you know, kind of probably why you haven't heard of me in any regards or anything like that. So pretty new to this space, um, but yeah.
04:02
Speaker A
Trader, um, before, that, I, was, betting casually, but, nothing, that, was, certainly profitable, definitely, was, minus, EV definitely, was, down, all, that, um, but really, wasn't, doing, it, seriously, at, all so, basically, everything, um, that, I, have kind, of, experienced, as, a, better, has, been
04:19
Speaker A
Uh, prior to becoming a trader, um, what were you doing, like, and what made you want to apply for a trading position somewhere?
04:33
Speaker A
prior, to, becoming, a, Trader, um, what, were you, doing, like, and, like, what, made, you want, to, apply, for, a, trading, position somewhere, yeah, absolutely, so, I, was, an actuary, um, I, wouldn't, say, I, was, happy, at my, job, necessarily, I, was, um, you, know
04:48
Speaker A
Yeah, absolutely. So I was an actuary. Um, I wouldn't say I was happy at my job necessarily. I was, um, you know, growing up I always wanted to work in sports, but really didn't find a path that I thought suited my skill set. So I was an actuary full-time, and then on the side I was doing some content stuff, uh, writing for a few places, um, doing stuff like that. And I basically was doing that with the hopes of maybe getting into sports more seriously, uh, kind of through the back door. Um, and then when I was doing that, I got promoted. Uh, you know that meme where it's like, oh, I accidentally became important? Work, that kind of happened to me, where I, uh, they started a new role and they actually put me in it. So I was starting this new job, um, and then within six months of that, I was like, okay, this is doing too much. Trying to do the sports content with it, I gave up on the sports thought. All right, right now it is what it is. I just, I'm, it wasn't meant to be. I'm not going to work in sports. Uh, after working there for a little bit, I got offered a new job. And actually, um, during the week off between jobs, I happened to just read, uh, the book Logic of Sports Betting. Yep. And in it, they mention, uh, you know there's these people called traders, where I think he describes them as an army of nerds, uh, in regards to sports. I was like, well, you know, I'm pretty good at math, I love sports. Let's see if, uh, I could apply to one of these places just during my week off. And then while I was actually at my new job, training, I flew down to their headquarters. They flew me out. Everything. I interviewed for my sports trading position, and they were like, hey, how would you like a job with way less money, way less stability? And I was in. So, um, immediately gave up the actuary career, uh, and then became a trader.
05:00
Speaker A
writing, for, a, few, places, um, doing, stuff like, that, and, I, basically, was, doing, that with, the, hopes, of, maybe, getting, into sports, more, seriously, uh, kind, of, through the, back, door, um, and, then, when, I, was doing, that, I, got, promoted, uh, you, know
05:18
Speaker A
Really interesting background. Um, definitely. I think I can say without question you're the most liked actuary in gambling Twitter, uh, right now.
05:31
Speaker A
months, of, that, I, was, like, okay, this, is doing, too, much, trying, to, do, the, sports content, with, it, gave, up, on, the, sports thought, all, right, now, it, is, what, it, is, I just, I'm, it, wasn't, meant, to, be, I'm, not
05:43
Speaker A
Yeah, that's, I mean, that's a pretty low bar. That's like being the skinniest kid at fat camp, you know? It's not necessarily a very social group. So, uh, I would say that I definitely was probably a little bit louder, a little bit more demonstrative than a lot of my classmates. So yeah, that makes sense.
05:57
Speaker A
and, in, it, they, mention, uh, you, know there's, these, people, called, Traders where, I, think, he, describes, them, as, an army, of, nerds, uh, in, regards, to, sports, I was, like, well, you, know, I'm, pretty, good at, math, I, love, sports, let's, see, if, uh, I
06:11
Speaker A
Uh, when you were doing your, when you were working in your trading position, at what point did uh, potentially leaving that to bet on sports become a reality for you?
06:24
Speaker A
like, hey, how, would, you, like, a, job, way less, money, way, less, stability, and, I, was in, so, um, immediately, gave, up, the, ACT career, uh, and, then, became, a, Trader really, interesting, background, um definitely, I, I, I, think, I, can, say, without
06:40
Speaker A
Yeah. So when I first started, uh, there was a rule at the company that traders weren't suppos
06:55
Speaker A
would, say, that, I, definitely, was, probably a, little, bit, louder, a, little, bit, more demonst, than, a, lot, of, my, classmates, so yeah, that, makes, sense, uh, when, you, were doing, your, when, you, were, working, in, in your, trading, position, at, what, point, did
07:10
Speaker A
uh, potentially, leaving, that, to, bet, on Sports, become, a, reality, for you, yeah, so, when, I, first, started, uh there, was, a, a, rule, at, the, company, that Traders, weren't, supposed, to, bet, um, and, I I, mean, I, flew, out, to, Vegas, I, wasn't
07:26
Speaker A
betting, seriously, before, that, so, it wasn't, a, big, deal, I, was, going, to, follow the, rules, like, everyone, and, then, soon, I got, there, and, realized, that, everybody was, actually, betting, you, know, follow, the rules, at, first, then, you, realize
07:36
Speaker A
everybody, else, is, betting, um, so, I, mean early, on, I, was, just, kind, of, picking, my spots, and, spots, where, I, was, like, oh, you know, this, is, undervalued, or, very selective, about, my, betting, process obviously, wasn't, scale, um, but, you, know
07:51
Speaker A
maybe, a, little, bit, arrogant, but, like, a few, months, in, I, was, like, okay, I, can, at least, make, a, side, hustle, of, this, I, can at, least, make, some, side, income, betting in, small, spots, while, I'm, trading, um, and
08:03
Speaker A
then, I, was, you, know, it's, one, of, those things, where, you, start, betting, small start, betting, like, these, specific situations, and, then, eventually, you, end up, where, you're, just, betting, all, the time, right, now, a, lot, of, uh, betters, come
08:16
Speaker A
from, from, obviously, different backgrounds, uh, because, you, are, an actuary, I'm, automatically, assuming, that that, math, and, modeling, were, kind, of, the route, that, you, took, in, the, early, going of, betting, is, that, a, fair, assumption yeah, I, would, say, it's, probably, a, little
08:32
Speaker A
bit, more, basic, math, than, a, a, lot, of people, would, suspect, it, wasn't, anything that, necessarily, I, needed, an, Actuarial degree, in, order, to, do, uh, you, know, just there, there, are, things, that, I, now because, I, think, I, at, least, have, the
08:47
Speaker A
background, to, have, um, I, kind, of, pick, it up, easier, I, would, say, if, I'm, learning, it but, a, lot, of, it, I'm, relearning, myself, or kind, of, teaching, myself, looking, at different, things, um, I, I, would, say, that
09:00
Speaker A
the, math, aspect, or, the, actal, aspect, of what, I'm, doing, modeling, is, often, times you, know, a, little, bit, overrated, it's, not like, it's, exactly, Apples, to, Apples, but obviously, there's, some, overlap, and, you know, just, having, a, familiar, math
09:13
Speaker A
background, I, think, helps, yeah, that's interesting, um, just, curious, because, you mentioned, that, the, math, is, a, lot, more basic, than, maybe, a, lot, of, people, would realize, what, kind, of, markets, were, you going, after, in, the, early
09:27
Speaker A
going, so, really, early, on, I, betting, you know, more, main, three, but, I, was, just betting, it, in, very, like, once, every couple, weeks, or, things, like, that, um where, I, thought, I, you, know, particularly had, good, Insight, I, I, would, say, in
09:42
Speaker A
general, um, kind, of, most, of, my, betting starts, where, I, think, something, is, pretty hard, to, price, in, that, there's, a, lot, of uncertainty, there's, a, lot, of, like, I don't, know, you're, kind, of, just, throwing a, number, at, it, and, guessing, um, so, that's
09:56
Speaker A
really, where, almost, all, my, models, start with, me, thinking, this, particular, spot, is really, hard, to, price, how, do, they, do, it and, then, I, put, together, a, hack, you, know guess, on, it, basically, and, then, from there, you, just, kind, of, stop, and, refine
10:11
Speaker A
and, refine, and, refine, until, eventually you, have, kind, of, a, full, workking, model um, but, mostly, I, would, say, that, I, was trying, to, I, kind, of, let, the, market decide, what, I, was, going, to, attack, first I, was, trying, to, get, stuff, that, I, thought
10:24
Speaker A
was, either, priced, poorly, or, very, weird circumstances, that, I, thought, I, can, model this, quickly, with, a, guess, of, a, number here, and, try, to, do, it, that, way, yeah, that makes, a, lot, of, sense, now, I, I, have, a, lot
10:35
Speaker A
of, friends, who, um, either, are, Traders, now or, have, been, Traders, before, uh, I've obviously, worked, on, the, other, side, of the, counter, before, as, uh, many, of, our listeners, would, would, know, as, well, um, a lot, of, my, friends, that, are, Traders, they
10:49
Speaker A
they, speak, of, sort, of, a, life, experience or, story, where, just, by, virtue, of, being, a Trader, and, being, able, to, see, what, other sharp, betters, were, betting, they basically, had, like, the, gears, going, in their, head, of, like, I, can, do, this, as, well
11:04
Speaker A
how, much, of, how, much, of, your, journey into, being, a, sports, better, was, came, from your, ability, to, see, action, on, the, other side, of, the counter, yeah, I, think, it, was, helpful, and particularly, seeing, that, just, the
11:19
Speaker A
different, types, of, betters, that, you, kind of, get, to, watch, if, bets, come, in, you, see oh, this, guy, he, loves, betting, this, spot particularly, and, I, guess, since, that's something, that, was, already, kind, of gravit, gravitating, towards, anyways, I
11:33
Speaker A
thought, that, like, for, example, we, had, a guy, who, if, you, uh, saw, his, last, name, he was, a, weatherman, and, he, literally, bet, in bad, weather, situations, and, held, a, huge percentage, just, betting, in, weather, so kind, of, seeing, the, different, ways, people
11:50
Speaker A
approach, different, situations, I, think was, really, helpful, into, seeing, okay, like where, do, you, not, want, to, take, a, bet often, times, you, know, as, a, Trader, when you, see, a, bet, come, in, you, can, often times, tell, oh, you, know, I, didn't, want, to
12:03
Speaker A
take, this, right, here, obviously, is, the better, you, want, to, be, that, person, who's lighting, it, up, and, they're, like, oh, why didn't, I, allow, that, yeah, I, love, that, uh I, did, an, episode, it, was, the, last, episode
12:13
Speaker A
that, Johnny, did, with, me, at, the, end, of 2024, where, uh, we, click, baited, the, title of, like, here's, what, you, need, to, do, to win, in, 2025, but, part, of, that, episode, was about, like, figuring, out, what, your, Edge
12:24
Speaker A
is, find, your, Edge, as, a, better, and, like the, weather, example, Rings, true, is someone, who, who, might, not, have, had, any sports, knowledge, but, their, Edge, was, just being, able, to, get, down, before, other people, did, on, weather, situations, and
12:37
Speaker A
that, in, of, itself, is, enough, to, often times, uh, you, know, be, very, worthwhile, so I, appreciate, you, sharing, that, um, story Mike, um, curious, what, are, you, betting mostly nowadays, yeah, so, I, I'm, kind, of, betting at, least, in, some, capacity, year, round, um
12:55
Speaker A
busiest, season, is, probably, college football, is, the, highest, um, you, know volume, in, terms, of, probably, dollars, uh busiest, in, terms, of, every, day, there's something, is, NBA, I, bet, NBA, props, um, from college, football, right, into, NBA, props, um
13:10
Speaker A
and, then, you, know, I, I've, been, betting UFL, lately, and, I'll, pick, up, on, some, of these, kind, of, weirder, small, Sports, um kind, of, situations, like, that, I, bet, some unrivaled, even, this, year, um, basically anything, where, there's, not, a, lot, of, data
13:27
Speaker A
I, think, I, do, a, pretty, good, job, of estimating, you, know, either, where, there's some, data, but, not, a, ton, where, I, can, kind of, estimate, a, number, decide, how, much, to bring, it, back, or, how, much, is, this, real, I
13:39
Speaker A
those, kind, of, situations, where, it's, kind of, a, mix, of, subjective, and, a, little, bit of, math, I, think, that's, kind, of, the, area I, thrive, in, and, it, also, helps, it, those are, lower, limit, markets, where, I, don't
13:49
Speaker A
have, to, compete, against, the, three, you know, legitimate, better, so, I, like, the hang, on, those, kind, of, markets, too, so yeah, I, want, I, want, to, dig, in, a, little bit, on, uh, probably, college, football, and NBA
14:00
Speaker A
um, let's, start, with, college, football, I know, it's, offseason, right, now, but, uh Curious, what, a, a, typical, college football, betting, week, looks, like, for, you um, are, you, betting, mostly, early, in, the week, later, in, the, week, do, you, do, live
14:14
Speaker A
are, there, props, involved, what, what, is betting, college, football, Encompass, for you, surprising, you, didn't, want, to, go with, the, UFL, or, WNBA, content, in, that went, with, college, football, but, um, yeah yeah, uh, for, college, it's, been, a, little
14:30
Speaker A
bit, different, year, by, year, just, um, as, my bank, rolls, growed, uh, before, I, was, able to, bet, a, lot, on, Sundays, and, now obviously, I, want, to, wait, a, little, bit more, um, but, with, that, you, obviously, find
14:42
Speaker A
ways, to, get, down, that, are, a, little, bit different, which, is, helpful, um, but, last year, I, guess, probably, just, the, easiest way, is, just, to, look, at, last, year, I, was betting, uh, I, would, bet, sides, usually, uh
14:55
Speaker A
Tuesday, um, totals, on Wednesday, you, know, obviously, if something's, moving, or, if, I, think, that there's, a, certain, spot, you'll, go, before that, but, trying, in, general, um, Tuesday and, Wednesday, is, where, I, could, get, you know, a, fullfill, of, what, I, wanted, uh, for
15:09
Speaker A
each, market, there, um, through, different means, and, then, later, in, the, week, betting some, derivative, stuff, I, did, the, first halfes, first, quarters, um, and, then, some SGP, stuff, I, added, in, kind, of, by, accident halfway, through, the, halfway, through, the
15:24
Speaker A
season, I, had, some, movers, that, I, was talking, to, I, was, betting, one, kind, of prop, and, they're, like, you, know, could, you make, it, actually, an, SGP, of, something that's, kind, of, related, and, just, kind, of iterated, on, the, Fly, and, did, that, so
15:38
Speaker A
that's, help, that, was, uh, helpful, and, kind of, a, new, area, I, think, these, scps, are pretty, beatable, I, obviously, everybody who's, betting, seriously, is, starting, to look, into, these, I'm, not, it's, not, like, a novel, concept, but, I, think, that, if, you
15:51
Speaker A
can, take, something, that, you, already, had and, try, to, kind, of, jam, it, into, that, way a, lot, of, times, there's, edgs, to, be, found there, yeah, to, be, clear, I, asked, you, about college, football, instead, of, UFL, cuz
16:02
Speaker A
there's, probably, about, seven, people betting, UFL, and, I, feel, like, you're, going to, really, give, away, an, edge, or, something if, I, if, I, dig, deep, onto, that, yeah, just me, and, Dez, are, probably, the, two, people that, I, know, that, ask, really, about
16:14
Speaker A
consistently, so, and, I, mean, that, it's probably, not, even, the, smallest, bit, of his, attention, but, yeah, so, that's, an interesting, and, then, you, know, W, to, so that's, another, interesting, sport, for everyone, um, we've, exchanged, a, few, DMS
16:30
Speaker A
over, the, last, year, or, so, nothing, crazy but, you, did, mention, to, me, that, um, you, do some, halftime, betting, in, college football, now, listening, to, you, talk, now you're, talking, about, how, you're, betting first, halves, um, curious, were, like, are
16:43
Speaker A
you, also, doing, a, bunch, of, second, half stuff, or, or, is, all, of, the, Der, derivative betting, coming pregame, I'm, betting, some, second, half spots, usually, uh, if, I'm, betting, on, a Saturday, live, I'm, trying, to, Target things, that, happened, in, the, game, that, I
17:01
Speaker A
think, might, not, necessarily, be, priced, um you, know, for, the, rest, of, the, game, as well, as, would, be, for, example, if, you, have a, game, that's, one, of, the, if, it's, say it's, the, 15th, most, important, game, on
17:14
Speaker A
Saturday, and, a, college, quarterback, goes down, there's, no, data, on, that, backup quarterback, it, can, vary, wildly, from, this guy, was, competing, for, the, job, in, the spring, and, he, was, basically, right, on, the guy's, ass, so, he, was, you, know, there's, no
17:29
Speaker A
downgrade, at, all, or, it, could, be, a, kid, I mean, I, remember, the, one, year, the Oklahoma, State, quarterback, came, in, and he, was, so, nervous, his, hand, was, trembling and, you, can, see, them, like, I, mean, so, the
17:40
Speaker A
Gap, in, these, quarterbacks, that, come, in, a lot, of, times, through, injury, or, sometimes it, could, be, a, team, has, decided, to, slow the, pace, down, for, the, first, half, because they, want, to, get, out, of, there, and, not
17:52
Speaker A
get, beat, by, more, than, 50, if, it's, a, huge spread, game, kind, of, things, that, are happening, live, that, I, think, might, not necessarily, get, PR, pred, in, until, the second, half, and, it, probably, is, at, the end, of, the, half, but, I, think, a, lot, of
18:03
Speaker A
times, you, know, early, or, if, you're betting, it, live, it's, it's, a, little, bit scarier, because, it's, hard, to, really model, things, you, know, unless, you're, very good, which, I'm, not, it's, hard, to, model anything, live, is, because, Sports, folks, do
18:16
Speaker A
uh, but, you, kind, of, had, to, be directionally, correct, there, and, kind, of know, where, the, price, should approximately, be, just, by, know, almost rest, all, right, so, so, on, that, topic, are are, you, preparing, for, this, beforehand
18:29
Speaker A
let, like, as, an, example, would, you, have, I don't, know, what, is, it, 120, roughly college, football, teams, and, and, know, a rough, a, difference, between, quarterback and, backup, is, that, something, that happens, on, the, Fly, um, is, it, field-based
18:43
Speaker A
like, walk, me, through, what, what, you, do, in those scenarios, yeah, I, mean, ideally, a, lot, more of, it, would, be, prepped, ahead, of, time, I think, that, mostly, was, just, a, bandwidth thing, where, a, lot, of, times, I'm, kind, of
18:56
Speaker A
seeing, something, happen, uh, being, like okay, what's, going, on, here, and, if, there's enough, time, trying, to, react, mostly before, uh, or, during, the, half, time, I think, during, the, halftime, is, when, kind of, the, lines, get, cleaned, up, and, shape
19:11
Speaker A
put, into, place, by, betters, who, know, what they're, doing, um, but, when, there's, live, I mean, obviously, there's, people, betting into, those, live, markets, and, it's, not completely, inefficient, but, it's certainly, not, as, efficient, as, halftime as, the, people, who, have, you, know
19:25
Speaker A
developed, models, over, years, and, are betting, with, higher, limits, when, it, comes on, so, a, lot, of, times, what, I'm, doing, is kind, of, scrambling, but, I, think, that ideally, you, would, like, to, go, in, with, a list, every, Saturday, of, okay, here's
19:38
Speaker A
things, that, we, could, be, watching, and obviously, you, can, scramble, depending, on what, happens, you'll, never, be, able, to prep, for, every, situation, but, ideally, I would, like, to, prep, but, we're, not, there yet, uh, I'd, like, on, that, injury, news
19:52
Speaker A
front, I'd, like, to, explore, that, a, little bit, further, but, maybe, more, so, in, the pregame, capacity, where, nowadays, um there's, so, much, college, football, injury new, in, I'll, call, it, news, in, quotations that's, available, and, the, reason, I, say
20:06
Speaker A
that, is, because, I'm, not, sure, how, often this, stuff, is, already, priced, into markets, beforehand, with, people, who, know how, accurate, the, reporting, is, I, talk, to many, people, who, bet, college, football they, all, give, me, very, different
20:18
Speaker A
perspectives, on, you, know, whether, or, not this, injury, news, has, has, meaningfully changed, the, market, as, a, whole, how, do, you view, um, you, know, the, the, increase, of widely, available, information, in, the, last couple, years, in, the, college, football
20:34
Speaker A
betting Market, ye, yeah, it's, tough, to, know, what's already, priced, in, what's, been, leaked, out with, Pros, I, feel, it's, it's, so, much, more a, standard, and, cookie, cutter, that, you kind, of, know, uh, one, you, know, you, can
20:48
Speaker A
tell, the, lines, are, so, much, more efficient, um, you, can, kind, of, tell, if it's, been, priced, in, or, not, for, college lines, might, move, pretty, late, in, the, week and, it's, it's, unclear, if, it's, because, of the, injury, news, or, if, it's, because, of
21:01
Speaker A
something, else, completely, um, you, know, I I'm, not, well, connected, enough, to, have any, kind, of, inside, information, or anything, like, that, so, I'm, basically Flying, Blind, a, lot, of, times, and, betting earlier, in, the, week, removes, some, of, that
21:16
Speaker A
you, know, you're, speculating, on, a, lot, of it, but, you're, not, how, much, is, really priced, in, on, a, Monday, or, Tuesday, you know, you, can't, know, if, that, guy's, going to, be, ready, Beyond, whether, you, already knew, was, out, uh, live, from, the, game
21:29
Speaker A
before, so, I, think, a, lot, of, times, you're kind, of, projecting, injuries, um, and, I think, in, college, a, lot, of, times, if, it's not, the, quarterback, I, don't, know, it's really, quarterback, and, cluster, injuries are, the, two, things, you, have, to, be
21:40
Speaker A
worried, about, at, least, in, my, opinion college, football, because, the, backup, for the, best, teams, like, you, know, the, backup for, Ohio, State, is, going, to, be, coming, in he's, going, to, be, a, five-star, recruit who's, also, super, talented, so, the, guy
21:53
Speaker A
that, goes, out, is, being, replaced, by someone, with, equal, Talent, a, lot, of, times it's, because, these, schools, are, so, much in, talent, I, think, that, the, backup, you know, there's, a, big, gap, between, Justin Jefferson, and, his, backup, compared, to
22:07
Speaker A
average, NFL, wide, receiver, in, his, backup Ohio, State's, star, wide, receiver, in, their backup, the, gap, between, that, and, Bowling Green, and, their, backup, is, this, kind, of the, same, so, maybe, I, didn't, do, a, big, job of, explaining, that, there, but, I, think, uh
22:21
Speaker A
it, kind, of, sorts, itself, out, except, for you, know, clusters, and, QBs, yeah, so, I, I, I get, what, you're, getting, at, and, and nowadays, when, I'm, talking, about, the, you know, the, prevalence, of, injury information, in, the, market, there's, feed
22:34
Speaker A
Underdog, has, great, feeds, for, for, all, the major, sports, um, seen, unabated, get involved, recently, with, college, football news, as, well, and, I've, always, wondered because, each, sport, is, different, I, see this, a, lot, in, the, hockey, market, and, and
22:46
Speaker A
again, we're, we're, very, different, betters I'm, I'm, big, on, hockey, but, I'll, often, see like, some, sort, of, injury, information that, comes, out, on, one, of, these, feeds, and the, market, immediately, gets, hit, to, the other, side, and, and, I'm, sitting, there, and
22:58
Speaker A
I'm, like, well, this, is, actually insignificant, altogether, in, some, cases it, it's, actually, proba, you, know, it, could be, good, that, this, player, is, out, of, the lineup, um, yet, there, seems, to, be, like this, abundance, of, reaction, to, injury
23:11
Speaker A
news, and, I, always, wondered, about, the college, market, for, the, reasons, that, you mentioned, right, like, is, a, a, random, Edge rusher, on, you, know, Alabama, for, example um, going, to, be, the, equivalent, of, an, edge rusher, on, to, lane, or, something, like, that
23:26
Speaker A
and, how, are, people, processing, that, in real, time, basically yeah, for, college, it's, a, little, bit different, because, the, information, seems to, kind, of, trickle, out, more, than, it, does just, blasted, like, like, you, know, when I've, bet, NBA, too, it's, Underdog, when
23:40
Speaker A
Underdog, tweets, it, you, just, see, the screen, so, you, can, see, exactly, the, impact of, what's, Happening, um, you, know sometimes, you, can, get, people, tweeting like, uh, hints, other, beat, reporters, and stuff, like, that, but, for, college, it, it
23:54
Speaker A
seems, like, it's, largely, getting, leaked into, the, information, somehow, um, and, then also, I, just, don't, think, the, moves, are, as big, uh, like, you, said, I, think, because it's, unless, it's, a, real, star, player, for a, smaller, School, usually, the, backups, for
24:09
Speaker A
these, uh, top, level, schools, where, all, the best, players, are, are, so, much, better, than the, competition, they're, playing, anyways it, you, know, how much, how, much, of, a, difference, does, it make, if, you're, going, from, a, 90, rated
24:22
Speaker A
player, if, you're, talking, like, old, Madden ratings, if, you, go, from, 90, versus, 70, to uh, 87, versus, 70, it, doesn't, matter, that much, uh, as, opposed, to, in, the, NFL, where obviously, the, difference, between, every team, is, so, much, smaller, than, in, college
24:36
Speaker A
right, uh, having, the, Actuarial, background obviously, um, you, have, a, good, strong foundation, in, mathematics, and, I, always find, it, really, interesting, talking, to people, who, have, the, mathematical background, in, terms, of, how, they, approach sports, betting, where, you, have, the
24:52
Speaker A
extreme, um, which, I, I'll, I'll, say, Rufus Peabody, is, one, extreme, one, way, where it's, like, I, am, going, to, try, to, quantify everything, I'm, going, to, try, to, model everything, then, I'm, kind, of, maybe somewhere, in, the, middle, where, I, won't
25:07
Speaker A
bet, against, my, models, but, sometimes, I might, lay, off, and, be, like, hey, you, know what, I've, been, showing, an, edge, on, this team, six, straight, games, it's, not, going well, I, don't, know, if, this, is, true, you
25:18
Speaker A
know, and, then, there's, some, math, guys, who are, like, you, know, what, I, like, to, mix, in a, lot, of, subjective, feel, I, will, often times, play, against, my, own, numbers, where do, you, stand, on, that, Spectrum so, I, I, incorporate, some, subjective, stuff
25:33
Speaker A
but, I, always, try, to, at, least, put, the subjective, whatever, adjustments, I, like to, make, uh, I, make, to, you, know, if, I'm going, to, adjust, one, way, I'll, do, it, to the, team, rating, rather, than, post, after
25:46
Speaker A
everything's, been, run, I, think, if, you, do it, after, everything's, been, run, I, find, a lot, of, times, I'm, not, very, price sensitive, I, want, to, react, to, a, certain piece, of, information, a, certain, way, I already, kind, of, have, it, in, my, head, oh
25:57
Speaker A
you, know, this, guy's, I, want, to, do, this, um so, I, think, I'm, better, off, if, I, do, do some, kind, of, subjective, uh, adjustment, I do, it, to, the, actual, values, inside, the model, rather, than, the, game, post, after
26:12
Speaker A
everything's, been, run, um, I, would, say that, I, think, that, there's, a, difference between, you, know, there's, subjective inputs, and, there's, objective, ones, that even, if, you, can't, necessarily, price, it correctly, there, is, just, an, OB, the, value
26:29
Speaker A
to, it, so, I, think, there's, certain, things that, you, want, to, try, to, incorporate, as much, as, you, can, but, when, it, gets, to, the softer, values, of, like, team, rating, how much, this, player, matters, that's, where, I
26:40
Speaker A
think, subjective, kind, of, factors, in, more than, necessarily, you, know, the, wind, was 18, miles, per, hour, got, it, um, you mentioned, a, little, bit, about, sgps, and same, game, parlays, have become, huge, in, the, industry, nowadays, uh
26:57
Speaker A
a, lot, of, people, dismiss, them, as, sucker bets, uh, a, lot, of, sharper, bets, know, that there's, lots, of, times, where, you, can, use the, sgps, in, your, advantage, uh, I've, seen them, exploited, many, times, in, other sports, uh, especially, the, NFL, nowadays, I
27:13
Speaker A
know, some, guys, who, are, uh, they're, making a, lot, off, of, sgps, uh, very, low, win, rates shooting, for, the, moon, but, they, hit, them and, they, go, well, um, I'm, kind, of, familiar with, college, football, markets, I, do, bet
27:26
Speaker A
some, college, football, props, um, but, from what, I, can, tell, the, um, amount, of, options in, Market, is, nowhere, close, to, that, of, of NFL, so, when, you, talk, about, taking advantage, of, sgps, um, how, limited, are those, markets, like, are, are, you, doing
27:45
Speaker A
some, correlated, stuff, where, the, market is, still, in, the, early, going, where, it doesn't, quite, understand, the correlations, um, I, I, don't, I, I, I, don't want, you, to, give, away, an, edge, I, don't ask, people, to, do, that, but, just, curious
27:56
Speaker A
how, you're, using, them, to, benefit, right now yeah, I, I, would, say, kind, of, getting, into it, without, really, getting, into, it, um, I try, to, do, things, that, are, based, on standard, correlations, or, standard probabilities, that, they, put, in, there, and
28:15
Speaker A
adjust, it, to, team, specific, stuff, so essentially, they're, going, to, come, up with, this, is, a, correlation, for, this situation, based, on, tons, of, approach, uh you, know, tons, of, data, usually, fed, into some, kind, of, I'm, guessing, machine
28:28
Speaker A
learning, or, some, kind, of, you, know, giant Matrix, that, is, probably, math, above, my pay, grade, so, what, I'm, trying, to, do, is find, specific, situations, where, why, would that, correlation, not, apply, to, this, team or, why, would, that, correlation, be, wrong
28:42
Speaker A
here, um, it's, tough, because, there's, not, a ton, of, player, props, so, it's, basically all, game, stuff, yeah, um, and, it's, you, know it's, not, those, I'm, not, betting, any, kind of, long, shot, uh, SGP, stuff, like, that, with
28:54
Speaker A
the, NFL, where, there's, a, lot, more, of, that available, um, so, it's, more, just, stuff, and kind, of, kind, of, fitting, it, to, more specific, information, based, on, the, teams uh, which, college, because, there's, so, much Variety, in, the, teams, I, think, that
29:07
Speaker A
there's, kind, of, more, opportunities, there yep, that, makes, a, lot, of, sense, to, me, um okay, let's, flip, over, to, NBA, um, very different, sport, obviously, daily, League instead, of, betting, weekly, uh, when, it comes, to, NBA, are, you, betting, similar
29:24
Speaker A
types, of, things, in, the, NBA, I, know, you mentioned, you, do, bet, props, which, is, um you, know, again, there's, just, way, more, in terms, of, NBA, props, to, bet, on, a, daily basis, than, there, our, college, football
29:35
Speaker A
but, are, you, mostly, focused, on, the, same stuff, yeah, so, I, I'm, betting, mostly, uh you, know, points, I, started, the, year, doing points, and, threes, I, was, able, to, add, in um, some, assist, and, rebound, stuff, uh, in
29:48
Speaker A
the, middle, of, this, year, um, and, a, lot, of my, stuff, you, know, is, still, pretty, new, so I'm, kind, of, adding, in, features, midseason stuff, like, that, so, I, added, in, sgps, for this, season, uh, once, again, it, was
30:00
Speaker A
something, where, I, was, like, hey, I, was just, kind, of, scrolling, through, just checking, out, odds, and, kind, of, plugging in, and, looking, at, a, few, different, things I, was, like, you, know, this, doesn't, look right, to, me, um, could, I, whip, together
30:13
Speaker A
some, real, hack, job, of, something, that, I think, could, price, it, kind, of, close, that I, you, know, knew, wasn't, going, to, be perfect, but, I, was, like, all, right, is, this good, enough, to, beat, what, I, think, they're
30:23
Speaker A
pricing, fundamentally, wrong, um, so, I've been, betting, that, recently, uh, which, has been and, I, think, you, know, I, think, it's, better for, accounts, especially, if, you, can, kind of, edit, in, where, one, you're, losing, often before, you're, winning, big, so, I, think
30:37
Speaker A
that's, helpful, and, then, two, I, obviously they're, pushing, all, these, people, for sgps, uh, you, know, they, can't, they're, not going, to, push, everyone, to, bet, scps, and then, when, you, bet, scps, be, upset, so, as long, as, it's, not, you, know, super, flagrant
30:51
Speaker A
or, obvious, what, you're, doing, there, kind of, mix, it, up, a, little, bit, I, think, that it, probably, helps, count, life, although, to be, honest, like, I'm, mostly, kind, of betting, through, other, people, at, this point, uh, that, I, I, can't, tell, for, sure
31:02
Speaker A
yeah, on, the, topic, of, of, account longevity, or, health, um, I, I, often, see, a lot, of, debate, on, which, markets, are better, to, bet, on, um, in, the, community, whe like, some, people, argue, that, player, props are, great, because, of, the, ease, of, winning
31:21
Speaker A
High, Roi, others, say, gay, markets, offer more, long-term, value, because, of, the limitting, Factor, when, you, know, you're betting, high, volume, props, do, you, lean one, way, or another, you, know, not, really, um, I, will say, there, is, a, nice, part, about, props, uh
31:41
Speaker A
where, college, football, it's, all, on, one day, and, you're, like, you, know, whether this, goes, good, or, bad, it's, my, income riding, on, it, and, uh, like, the, first, week of, college, football, this, year, I, think, I was, 2, and, 18, so, and, you, know, week, one, is
31:56
Speaker A
even, harder, because, you, get, to, get, more down, because, you're, able, to, get, it, down quietly, so, it's, you, know, really, rough and, NBA, if, I, go, on, a, two, of, 18, stretch it's, fine, you, know, you, just, pick, up, the
32:07
Speaker A
next, day, and, get, to, keep, moving, uh, so, I do, think, like, uh, props, are, easier, in that, good, regard, um, as, far, as, you, know account, longevity, and, uh, things, like that, I, will, say, I, think, that, if, you're
32:21
Speaker A
able, to, I, think, the, prop, Market, is, easy enough, to, beat, if, you're, truly originating, it, you, know, it's, it's, if you're, doing, top, down, or, if, you, need razor, thin, margins, but, if, you're originating, it, sometimes, there's, edges
32:34
Speaker A
that, are, big, enough, that, you, don't, have to, take, best, price, and, that, can, kind, of it, opens, up, a, lot, of, doors, to, you, so, if I'm, willing, to, take, a, price, that, is, you know, even, worse, than, Market, one, I, think
32:45
Speaker A
it, probably, helps, your, accounts, better and, two, you, can, just, obviously, get, down at, so, many, more, places, so, I, think because, there, are, bigger, edges, sometimes it, gets, underrated, that, you, just, have, a wider, variety, of, places, you, can, bet, uh
32:57
Speaker A
you, know, any, given yeah, it's, actually, funny, you, mention that, um, I, try, all, sorts, of, [ __ ], when, it comes, to, um, trying, to, avoid, getting limited, uh, obviously, I've, talked, about account, priming, here, before, I, still
33:10
Speaker A
think, that's, very, important, I, everyone has, their, own, individual, experiences, of what, works, for, them, what, doesn't, depends on, the, book, might, have, just, been, random timing, with, the, with, the, trader, that happened, to, be, on, shift, when, you, know
33:22
Speaker A
you, fired, a, bunch, of, bets, there's, lots of, stuff, that, that, has, to, do, with, that and, I, still, continue, um, you, know, to, to go, down, these, paths, one, of, the experiments, I've, been, doing, was, was, not
33:35
Speaker A
taking, best, price, and, it's, it's, really weird, for, me, to, say, that, because, I've obviously, advocated, that, for, that forever, uh, being, a, co-owner, of, a, product like, bet, stamp, which, is, built, on, you know, find, the, best, pric, in, market, and
33:48
Speaker A
bet, it, there, I, still, think, that's, a great, advice, to, a, recreational, better generally, especially, one, that, doesn't have, an, edge, but, once, you, actually, do build, up, the, edge, um, when, you, go, Wipe Out, the, best, price, on, screen, at, every
34:00
Speaker A
single, B, sports, book, every, time, I, think your, longevity, is, is, pretty, much, nothing at, that, point, for, the, health, of, the account, so, um, yeah, it's, funny, just interesting, to, to, hear, you, mention, that as, well, because, for, me, that's, been, a, big
34:13
Speaker A
thing, over, the, last, several, months, which is, still, taking, good, prices, but, not taking, the, obvious, price, let's, put, it that way, yeah, I, I'll, be, honest, I, I, often, do take, the, best, price, too, but, I'm, kind, of
34:28
Speaker A
I'm, taking, it, so, I, want, to, get, down, on the, prop, and, as, many, places, as, I, can, so I'm, basically, betting, it, a, lot, of, times I'll, bet, it, if, the, board, is, you, know, not if, there's, nothing, if, everything's
34:40
Speaker A
relatively, in, market, I'll, bet, it, at, just every, single, sports, book, so, you're almost, floting, them, with, so, many, bets that, they're, not, looking, at, it, I, I, don't and, maybe, that's, not, actually, helpful, at all, but, I, think, that, if, you're, just, kind
34:53
Speaker A
of, picking, and, choosing, spots, it's, a, lot easier, to, see, than, when, you're, just, if go, in, at, the, same, time, every, single, day and, this, person's, like, oh, he's, betting at, you, know, 9, o', and, he, just, hammers, 15
35:04
Speaker A
bets, if, I, was, a, recreational, better, I would, probably, just, go, into, my, screen look, and, whatever, the, price, was, at, the time, I, bet, it, I, wouldn't, wait, till, you know, different, times, of, the, market, and try, to, pick, and, choose, and, things, like
35:16
Speaker A
that, so, I, again, it's, all, speculation like, you, said, I, have, no, idea, it, could, be I, I, the, funny, thing, is, uh, the, reason, I uh, have, you, know, the, Twitter, burner, name is, I uh, had, a, friend, who, worked, at, Fanatics
35:31
Speaker A
and, I, I, primed, an, account, I, was, betting WNBA, got, a, couple, decent, bets, in, uh, and I, messaged, him, I, was, like, hey, you, know, I got, limited, I'm, down, here, what's, going on, he's, like, yeah, we, review, accounts
35:44
Speaker A
that, are, betting, a, certain, amount, and they, found, uh, you, know, one, of, your, old articles, that, you, wrote, when, I, was writing, doing, some, content, stuff, he's like, we, found, one, of, those, and, then, put the, you, know, limits, on, you, there, I, was
35:55
Speaker A
like, ah, so, you, really, got, to, try, to, wrap up, every, kind, of, piece, of, Internet presence, you, have, which, is, pretty, much impossible, for, me, Mike, uh, i', I've learned, that, the, hard, way, um, yeah, I, mean
36:09
Speaker A
I, I, it's, an, unfortunate, nature, of, being a, public, figure, before, I, was, actually, a winning, better, because, uh, yeah, there's no, work, around, for, someone, quickly Googling, your, name, and, seeing, you, all over, a, bunch, of, betting, content, uh
36:22
Speaker A
that's, you, know, at, the, time, sponsored, by Pinnacle, sharp, book, as, well, wasn't wasn't, really, helping, my, C, I'll, tell, you that, yeah, Jed, on, them, I, mean, when, I wrote, that, article, I, would, have, been, a losing, better, so, they, they, really, would
36:33
Speaker A
have, messed, up, but, I, I, mean, also probably, when, I, wrote, that, article, I wouldn't, be, betting, a, DIY, on, a, random WNBA, game, so, I'm, sure, that, they, probably figure, that, out, too, yeah, and, listen there, are, some, sports, books, uh, I, mean
36:46
Speaker A
Fanatics, would, definitely, be, one, of, them where, I, I, don't, think, the, strategies that, you, may, may, employ, at, other, books are, necessarily, going, to, work, there, um anyways, um, just, my, exper, expences, um, on the, NBA, side, have, there, been, any, NBA
37:03
Speaker A
betting, angles, that, have, uh, worked, well in, the, past, that, have, since, dried, up that, you, could, maybe share, uh, I, I, don't, know, if, they necessarily, dried, up, I, I, would, say, that I, used, to, bet, a, lot, more, I, would, do, kind
37:17
Speaker A
of, Race, To, score, stuff, um, first, field goal, team, stuff, I, would, do, a, ton, of early, on, and, it's, just, gotten, harder, I, I guess, I, mean, it's, dried, up, in, the, sense that, it's, just, really, hard, to, bet, it, now
37:28
Speaker A
um, before, it, was, a, little, bit, easier, and part, of, that, is, just, me, increasing, my bet, size, where, it's, like, you, know, before with, where, it, was, $500, was, definitely worth, my, time, now, it's, like, I, you, know
37:40
Speaker A
just, I'm, not, going, to, worry, about, this bet, um, but, I, think, part, of, it, is, also books, just, realizing, that, it, was probably, a, bunch, of, sharp, people, betting it, that, this, isn't, a, particularly, fun bet, for, a, person, they're, going, to, bet
37:54
Speaker A
the, first, player, to, score, the, basket they're, not, going, to, bet, the, first, team um, so, that's, something, that, I, think, that you, know, a, lot, of, these, bets, that, if it's, not, fun, to, the, Casual, better, how
38:04
Speaker A
long, is, it, really, going, to, last, uh, that was, probably, one, example, of, that, I, think are, you, still, dabbling, in, the, first player, to, score, a basket, no, not, really, it's, just, uh, it's something, that, you, kind, of, at, least, I
38:17
Speaker A
needed, to, run, pretty, consistently, I, had a, a, pretty, good, out, uh, for, race, to, like five, race, to, 10, kind, of, thing, yeah, um unfortunately I, think, that, they, are, no, longer, paying out, very, many, sharp, customers, I, think, uh
38:33
Speaker A
they've, been, kind, of, in, some, news, for different, people, know, that, they're, not paying, out, now, so, that, was, one, of, my hours, for, a, while, and, that's, seems, like it's, gone, now, yeah, I, I, only, asked because, I, I, actually, love, that, market
38:45
Speaker A
for, a, sweat, um, so, I've, been, top, Downing uh, first, to, score, and, then, first, to score, from, each, team, um, using, betst, Pro uh, what, I, I, like, about, it, is, obviously the, odds, that, you, can, get, on, a, lot, of
38:57
Speaker A
these, bets, which, are, um, long, shots, but it's, just, it, is, actually, just, such, a great, sweat, at, like, 7, 7:30, Eastern, when the, games, are, tipping, off, I'm, not, a, huge NBA, guy, B, like, not, a, big, basketball, fan
39:10
Speaker A
but, I, can, watch, like, the, first, minute, of every, game, and, like, I, don't, I, don't, know to, me, it's, like, one, of, the, best, best sweats, you, could, possibly, have, in, sports betting, yeah, there, was, a, period, where
39:22
Speaker A
early, in, the, year, we, were, actually, able to, get, like, uh, we, had, some, VIP, accounts uh, there's, some, people, and, we, were, able to, get, a, decent, amount, and, when, we, would have, you, know, first, team, to, score, a
39:33
Speaker A
field, goal, and, we, had, what, was, a, pretty good, chunk, of, change, and, they, missed like, the, first, three, shots, you're, just like, and, often, times, it, wouldn't, even, be worth, it, for, me, to, like, turn, the, game, on
39:42
Speaker A
so, I'd, have, it, on, that, like, little, ESPN Gamecast, I'm, watching, it, like, a, real that's, a, real, you, know, degenerate, sweat of, watching, just, uh, animation, update, and seeing, like, oh, am, I, going, to, get, a, field
39:52
Speaker A
goal, or, not, uh, it, it's, it's, so incredibly, rewarding, when, win, that, type of, bet, but, also, can, be, so, incredibly tilting, too, like, when, you, when, you, got the, first, player, to, score, who, takes, the first, two, shots, for, a, team, and, misses
40:06
Speaker A
both, I've, had, situations, where, you, know a, guy, will, be, going, in, for, a, layup, and gets, fouled, and, then, like, the, ref, says no, no, it's, on, the, it's, you, know, it's, not shooting, fouls, on, the, fouls, happen, on
40:16
Speaker A
the, floor, you're, like, no, what, the, hell's going, on, here, like, very, clearly, in, the process, of, making, a, layup, love, that market, um, one, of, my, favorites, altogether I'm, just, trying, to, think, of, of, stuff over, the, years, and, I, I, don't, think
40:28
Speaker A
there's, anything, better, for, me, than, than that, first, bucket, whether, it, was, the team, to, to, score, first, the, player, to score, I've, always, been, really, interested in, that market, yeah, yeah, I, I, had, uh, when, web Yama, first, came, into, the, NBA, I, was
40:43
Speaker A
betting, it, pretty, consistently, and, I just, didn't, think, they, adjusted, to, the fact, that, he's, a, seven, foot6, alien, fast enough, so, like, he, he, should, obviously, be a, huge, favorite, to, win, every, jump, ball and, the, Spurs, obviously, sucked, so, I, bet
40:58
Speaker A
a, lot, of, money, and, ended, up, losing, a, lot of, money, consistently, betting, first score, and, then, eventually, they, figured it, out, and, started, pricing, it, right, so, I was, just, n, huge, loser, in, betting, on those, kind, of, situations, uh, so, yeah, yeah
41:12
Speaker A
those, are, tough, ones, um, you, did, mention the, smaller, markets, you, bet, like, WNBA UFL, you, mentioned, as, well, um, what, do those, markets, look, like, I, have, you, I guess, let, me, refine, the, question, by saying, have, you, found, them, to, be, more
41:25
Speaker A
competitive, as, as, yours, have, gone, off, or have, they, just, been, relatively stagnant, you, know, I, don't, really, know just, because, I, haven't, been, betting, it long, enough, kind, of, to, pick, up, on, some of, those, things, I, would, say, that, they're
41:39
Speaker A
a, little, everybody, would, kind, of, put together, the, UFL, and, WNBA, but, really it's, it's, based, on, the, way, I, bet, UFL, is more, like, NBA, props, where, it's, a, lot, of in, NBA, props, you're, always, looking, at
41:52
Speaker A
the, assumptions, that, you're, taking whether, it's, field, goal, rate, minutes, you know, shooting, percentage, Etc, and, you're kind of, you're, kind, of, adjusting, to, that manually, or, at, least, I, am, um, based, on different, factors, how, real, is, this, um, is
42:06
Speaker A
it, not, UFL, is, similar, where, there's, not a, ton, of, data, so, you're, like, you, know how, real, is, this, where, WNBA, it's, more resented, it's, more, similar, to, my, kind, of college, football, process, where, I, have, a
42:17
Speaker A
good, idea, of, what, each, team, is, and, it's more, of, a, straight, modeling, problem, as opposed, to, kind, of, more, of, a, hackish, job or, more, manual, uh, for, the, UFO, so, I, just manual, I, just, manually, looked, I, looked
42:30
Speaker A
up, uh, the, UFL, cuz, I, I, don't, I, don't, bet the, UFL, are, follow, it, so, there's, eight teams, in, the, UFL, um, right, nine, in, the CFL, I'm, just, curious, what, what, how, do you, decide, when, you're, going, to, move
42:43
Speaker A
into, a, certain, League, or, a, market, what made, you, choose, UFL, and WNBA, yeah, so, I, for, WNBA, first, I, at, first I, was, betting, uh, some, very, early, when, I first, started, NBA, sides, and, totals, uh, so
43:00
Speaker A
I, was, just, an, easy, process, to, switch that, over, uh, to, WNBA, and, then, NBA there's, so, many, props, daily, and, uh, I'm working, with, some, people, I, have, someone now, that, I, originate, the, props, and, then I, send, it, out, to, them, and, then, they
43:15
Speaker A
trade, it, so, that's, been, super, helpful but, there's, just, there's, only, so, much time, in, the, day, to, do, that, and, to, try, to do, NBA, Siz, and, totals, it's, really, not possible, for, me, at, this, point, in, time, uh
43:25
Speaker A
so, w, it's, small, league, so, I'm, able, to handle, that, um, for, UFL, I, it, was, because the, XFL, started, and, I, was, like, here's, a league, with, absolutely, no, data, uh there's, no, historical, stuff, I, can basically, go, in, from, the, ground, level
43:42
Speaker A
and, whatever, happens, I, know, that, I'm, at equal, footing, with, anybody, who's, if you're, just, picking, up, betting, UFL, and, I started, I, you, know, we're, at, least, on, the same, page, of, what, we've, seen, so, far, so, I
43:55
Speaker A
have, thought, about, betting, CFL, um, part of, it, is, honestly, it's, just, in, the summer, and, I, would, am, prepping, for college, football, and, need, at, least, some time, to, time, to, take, a, relaxing, break but, I, I, have, thought, about, CFL, uh, but, I
44:08
Speaker A
was, kind, of, deciding, between, that, and UFL, and, I, thought, there's, already, CFL betters, there's, people, who, have, winning CFL, models, no, one, has, a, winning, UFL model, so, I, can, at, least, come, in, kind, of and, they, don't, have, an, advantage, over, me
44:20
Speaker A
yeah, I, and, listen, I, mean, as, someone, who did, bet, CFL, seriously, for, a, bit, and doesn't, anymore, now, it, just, became, very oversaturated, I, found, uh, with, a, lot, of PE, like, you, know, you, have, four, games, a
44:32
Speaker A
week, uh, you, potentially, when, there's buys, you, have, three, games, a, week, you have, days, where, like, Pinnacle, does, not open, the, game, until, game, day, and everyone's, waiting, for, it, to, happen, and there'll, be, literally, like, a, $300, limit
44:48
Speaker A
on, it, and, people, are, pounding, it, it, just became, you, know, you, got, Fez, releasing the, South, Point, openers, on, CFL, at, 3:00 a.m., like, it, it, it, got, to, a, point, where it's, just, ridiculous, so, I, don't, I, don't
45:00
Speaker A
blame, you, I, wish, there, was, more, of, a market, for, a, lot, of, these, SP, I'm surprised, that, with, th, this, era, of betting, nowadays, that, we, don't, see, more of, a, market, for, some, of, these, smaller Sports, yeah, I, as, popular, as, football, is
45:15
Speaker A
it, is, it, draws, a, rating, no, matter basically, if, you, look, at, like, a, random Sun, Belt, game, on, Tuesday, on, the, ESPN, you look, at, the, rating, it's, like, oh, this, is performing, as, good, as, duke, North
45:25
Speaker A
Carolina, in, college, basketball, it's insane how, much, they, do, I'm, surprised, that, they haven't, tried, to, kind, of, pump, up, CFL more, and, just, it's, I, mean, it's summertime, content, but, I, obviously, those guys, are, pretty, smart, they, probably, have
45:39
Speaker A
a, reason, they're, not, just, turning, away money, but, you're, right, I'm, surprised that, there's, not, people, just, want, to, bet on, football, I, I, think, that, you, know perhaps, as, people, just, get, more, and, more forward, and, as, gambling, problem, uh
45:52
Speaker A
problem, gaming, becomes, more, of, a, issue there, will, be, people, who, are, like, oh whatever, it's, Tuesday, on, or, Thursday, in August, I'm, gonna, go, ahead, and, try, to risk, it, in, CFL, and, then, maybe, get, bigger limits, yeah, I, mean, listen, you, got, people
46:04
Speaker A
betting, on, uh, influencer, boxing, fights nowadays, during, the, day, right, like, can't tell, me, they, wouldn't, want, to, bet, on more, football, I, do, want, to, get, your, take on, that, here, shortly, as, well, um, as, we can, transition, more, into, like, the
46:18
Speaker A
industry, um, nowadays, there's, lots, of betting, tools, out, there, there's, lots, of services, that, have, exploded, in popularity, recently uh, obviously, odd, Jam, was, a, big, one, and with, the, amount, that, they, sold, for, uh but, you, get, all, sorts, of, services
46:34
Speaker A
nowadays, we, have, you, know, bet, stamp, on our, side, unabated, uh, there's, tons, of stuff, do, you, think, that, they're, actually these, services, are, actually, making betters, sharper, in, the, long, run, or, do you, think, that, there's, kind, of, like, this
46:47
Speaker A
false, sense, of, security, with, a, lot, of the, tools, that, are, out, there, these days, it, it, is, a, little, bit, harder, for, me because, I've, never, been, the, top, down better, I, feel, like, a, lot, of, even
46:59
Speaker A
Originators, in, the, space, they're, like hey, I, started, off, as, a, wck, better, then, I started, arbing, um, and, then, after, arving I, figured, out, one, side, was, sharper, than the, other, and, I, took, that, side consistently, and, kind, of, worked, my, way
47:11
Speaker A
there, I've, really, never, had, a, period where, well, I, mean, never, really, was, I looking, at, an, odd, screen, before, working as, a, Trader, so, there's, kind, of, an, aspect of, it, where, I, am, a, little, in, the, dark
47:25
Speaker A
but, I, will say, it, feels, like, if, you're, all, these guys, who, are, doing, to, down, betting, it just, becomes, more, and, more, tools, and they, become, table, stakes, and, it's, kind of, like, analytics, was, in, baseball, uh, to
47:36
Speaker A
start, off, where, if, you, were, doing, it, you had, this, big, Edge, you, know, the, A's, had this, Edge, because, they, understand, that uh, on, base, percentage, is, important nobody, else, understands, it, and, now, if you, like, you, you, know, you, have, to, have
47:48
Speaker A
huge, analytic, Spates, just, to, keep, up with, everyone, so, for, a, lot, of, it, would be, really, frustrating, for, if, you, were, a top, down, guy, to, keep, up, with, everything one, you, just, have, to, sub, to, all, these
47:59
Speaker A
different, things, and, there's, so, many kind, of, different, processes, it's, nice originating, at, least, you, know, that you're, kind, of, doing, your, stuff, uh, kind of, solo, and, going, into, the, market, as opposed, to, all, these, guys, having, to, read
48:13
Speaker A
it, just, gives, me, stress, thinking, about it, being, like, Oh, you, know, how, do, I, keep up, with, this, and, then, there's, this, head fake, and, things, like, that, I, think, it, it would, be, really, frustrating, and, then
48:22
Speaker A
figure, out, that, someone's, got, a, better tool, than, you, and, they're, using, it, I think, there's, probably, some, level, of where, they, think, if, I, miss, one, Bad, Bet is, it, worth, a, subcription, here, yeah, what about, what, about, the, side, of, things, like
48:34
Speaker A
tools, that, help, people, originate, like, a random, example, like, you, can, upload, your power, ratings, for, every, NFL, team, and we'll, you, know, we'll, output, uh, you, know we'll, Sim, the, entire, season, or, we'll, Sim this, week, um, things, of, that, nature, do
48:52
Speaker A
you, think, that, those, provide, a, false sense, of security, yeah, yeah, probably, I, think eventually, I, there, are, for, example, you can, upload, your, projections, into unabated, I, know, for, their, props, and they'll, do, the, distributions, for, you, I
49:07
Speaker A
think, there, probably, is, uh, value, in, that for, specific, people, I, think, though, you probably, put, a, little, bit, of, a, ceiling on, yourself, if, you, can't, at, least, begin to, project, it, yourself, um, you, know basically, every, single, model, that, I've
49:23
Speaker A
ever, created, and, there's, people, with, far more, sophisticated, than, me, but everything, that, I've, ever, created, sucked so, bad, when, it, started, and, it, was, so basic, and, it, was, just, me, guessing, on certain, things, and, then, slowly, you, build
49:37
Speaker A
this, and, then, slowly, build, another, piece I, think, that, a, lot, of, these, if, you're uploading, it, into, somewhere, you're, kind of, taking, a, shortcut, to, not, as, uh, you know, fruitful, grounds, in, the, end, as, if you're, trying, to, do, it, yourself, and
49:50
Speaker A
maybe, you, aren't, profitable, at, first, uh but, you're, kind, of, reiterating, on, your process, but, at, the, same, time, you, know, I do, think, that, there, is, something, to, just learning, how, to, win, as, a, better, so, if
50:03
Speaker A
that's, able, to, get, you, to, do, that, the maybe, you, can, go, ahead, and, do, it, and upload, it, un, aate, it, and, then, eventually start, to, learn, your, own, distributions and, stuff, like, that, so, I, there, probably
50:15
Speaker A
is, I'll, say, this, if, you, used, it correctly, I'm, sure, that, there, probably is, super, benefit, useful, cases, for, it, but I, bet, you, a, lot, of, people, are, um, you know, trying, to, use, it, in, place, of
50:29
Speaker A
something, else, yeah, I, would, tend, to agree, with, that, as, well, also, it, just, I think, um, and, this, is, not, speaking directly, to, unabated, like, there's there's, lots, of, tools, out, there, that allow, you, to, input, rankings, and, it'll
50:41
Speaker A
you, know, all, sorts, of, that, but, a, lot, of the, tools, are, very, useful, if, the rankings, or, power, ratings, are, also, good but, in, the, sense, where, they're, not you're, just, getting, edges, on, ratings that, are, not, good, and, the, only, reason, I
50:55
Speaker A
I, brought, it, up, with, you, is, um, I, I, mean I, see, it, pretty, happen, pretty, regularly with, friends, around, me, it's, like, well you, know, I'm, gonna, bet, this, team, and it's, like, why, did, you, bet, Futures, on
51:04
Speaker A
this, college, football, team, this, season it's, like, well, I, I, inputed, my, ratings and, they, Sim, the, schedule, for, me, I'm like, yeah, but, like, it's, reliant, on, on your, ratings, right, yeah, you, have, to, have you, have, to, be, doing, something, in, your
51:17
Speaker A
own, process, that's, better, than, everyone else, in, order, for, it, to, have, value, so these, tools, that, are, around, there, if you're, not, putting, in, your, own, separate kind, of, I, mean, maybe, you, can, aggregate enough, information, and, put, it, in, and, it
51:31
Speaker A
can, be, decent, to, beat, soft, markets, I guess, but, really, if, you, want, to, have Edge, you, are, the, one, who, has, to, create the, edge, there, isn't, just, things, sitting around, sometimes, they're, they're, useful as, kind, of, a, bridge, Gap, I, think, um, you
51:44
Speaker A
know, if, you, are, learning, Break, Even percentages, it's, nice, to, have, a, break even, calculator, until, eventually, you just, learn, to, create, your, own, or eventually, you, start, to, know okay, minus, 110, is, 52.4, or, whatever, um, so
51:58
Speaker A
a, lot, of, them, I, think, they're, Bridge gaps, uh, and, they, can, help, you, while, you learn, to, win, but, you, know, again, if, if you're, not, creating, the, edge, yourself it's, really, hard, to, just, find, tools, that
52:09
Speaker A
are, going, to, have, it, there, is, always debate, online, uh, in, the, gambling, Twitter community, on, whether, or, not, people should, share, their, edges, publicly, uh this, tends, to, happen, a, couple, times, a year, usually, someone, shares, something
52:23
Speaker A
sharp, Community, goes, in, on, them, and, says well, why, would, you, do, this, you'd, be better, off, just, betting, it, yourself, or finding, a, mover, or, whatever, do, you, think it, ever, makes, sense, for, a, better, to publicly, share, their
52:38
Speaker A
edges, yeah, I, think, in, theory, it, makes sense, that, you, should, never, share anything, and, as, soon, as, you, say, anything it's, lowering, your, theoretical possibility, of, earning, in, the, future, but to, me, that, just, seems, like, it, kind, of
52:52
Speaker A
ignores, reality, of, the, fact, that, people kind, of, want, to, talk, to, one, another about, things, that, they're, doing, and, you generate, so, I, mean, if, you, and, I, are talking, about, a, sport, and, say, we're betting, both, betting, NFL, and, I, increase
53:08
Speaker A
your, Edge, on, something, by, 3%, and, you increase, Mine, by, 2%, there's, so, many other, participants, in, the, pool, that, we both, benefit, from, that, and, really, the only, way, that, you, can, gain, more information, from, others, is, if, you, share
53:21
Speaker A
it, yourself, and, nobody, you, know, nobody in, real, life, goes, up, and, says, I, have some, information, would, you, like, to, talk about, this, information, and, potentially help, one, another, like, you, have, to, kind of, just, go, out, and, say, here's, what, I
53:35
Speaker A
think, and, then, eventually, other, people will, comment, back, and, you'll, get, some feedback, loops, through, there, and, if you're, doing, anything, super, specific, I understand, you, know, I, would, never, if, I had, something, where, I, was, like, Hey
53:49
Speaker A
nobody, you, know, in, this, typ, hypothetical Universe, nobody's, figured, out, that there's, altitude, in, Denver, and, I, have this, Edge, and, this, one, specific, spot, and I, know, that, there's, more, homec, Court there, there, I, understand, you, don't, want
54:01
Speaker A
to, say, anything, but, when, it's, kind, of more, General, basis, uh, if, you're, not, kind of, bouncing, ideas, out, there, you, just don't, get, any, feedback, back, and, I, think that, a, lot, of, times, people, look, at, is
54:13
Speaker A
this, you're, either, giving, information, or you're, taking, it, when, really, the, people who, get, the, most, information, back, are those, who, at, least, project, some, stuff out, into, the, kind, of, thought, process yeah, I, I, think, a, lot, of, Sharps, really
54:26
Speaker A
over simplify, like, the, ability, for, a, random person, who, might, have, an, edge, on something, to, go, out, and, and, find, movers and, be, able, to, get, down, on, whatever, they want, to, get, down, on, or, people, that, like
54:40
Speaker A
you, could, have, an, edge, not, even, realize you, have, one, for, one, but, also, you, know, I I, lived, through, the, experience, of, if, I had, never, posted, baseball, numbers publicly, to, Twitter, I'm, nowhere, today like, I, just, happened, to, be, posting
54:58
Speaker A
numbers, to, Twitter, and, eventually someone, was, betting, them, and, you, know someone, reached, out, to, me, and, said, hey you, post, your, numbers, every, day, soon, as you, post, someone's, hitting, the, screen with, your, information, you, should, get
55:11
Speaker A
something, out, of, it, I, had, no, clue, what they, were, even, talking, about, and, I, think the, the, the, sharp, betters, Pro, betters they, often, really, over, they, get, mad, and I, understand, getting, mad, at, like, an influencer, who, just, wants, the, clout, more
55:26
Speaker A
than, anything, but, I, still, understand, why the, influencer, would, rather, grow, their following, rather, than, you, know, make, a couple, dimes, on, on, betting, some, sort, of edge, well, and, especially, just, okay, you have, those, connections, that, doesn't, mean
55:41
Speaker A
everybody, has, those, connections, so you're, like, well, if, they, knew, the, right people, then, they, could, get, down, you, know whatever, x, amount, on, this, and, this, cost them, this, much, money, well, they, don't have, those, connections, right, now, and
55:52
Speaker A
honestly, the, best, way, to, make connections, a, lot, of, times, is, just, to post, ideas, that, you, have, out, there, about specific, situations, and, things, like, that I, I, you, know, Kirk, Evans, has, been, on, the show, I, reached, out, to, him, we've, uh, found
56:07
Speaker A
out, some, things, basically, because, he tweeted, out, that, you, know, I, think, that this uh, uh, s, Sabrina, ISU, versus, Steph, Curry, I think, that, this, is, priced, wrong, whatever and, just, he, put, it, out, there, and, then, I
56:20
Speaker A
messaged, him, back, asking, them, something about, it, and, things, like, that, I, think, a lot, of, times, people, forget, that, if, you don't, know, any, one, in, the, industry, like it's, easy, to, say, when, you, are, connected with, all, these, people, that, you, could
56:31
Speaker A
privately, message, and, do, all, these things, if, you're, just, starting, off, you don't, know, who, to, message, who, to, talk, to anything, like, that, so, if, you, put something, out, there, even, if, you, get yelled, at, a, little, bit, honestly, a, lot, of
56:43
Speaker A
times, what, happens, is, like, uh, with, that DK, DFS, guy, posted, about, Mel, Bridges, yeah and, I'm, guessing, he, probably, thought, I can, bet, as, much, as, I, can, in, this situation, so, I'm, going, to, go, ahead, and
56:55
Speaker A
put, it, on, Twitter, and, now, I, follow, him, I think, he's, pretty, smart, I, would, guess that, he's, created, lots, of, opportunities from, him, you, know, maybe, did, he, create, as much, as, that, bridge, situation, what, I, I
57:06
Speaker A
don't, know, but, he, didn't, have, a, way, to get, down, so, now, he, says, something, smart people, start, to, listen, to, him, oh, this, is someone, who, kind, of, is, looking, for, the right, things, is, uh, you, know, generally
57:16
Speaker A
pretty, with, it, so, I, think, that, if, you're first, starting, it's, actually, pretty beneficial, if, you, don't, have, a, way, to after, you, get, down, as, much, as, you, can, to share, it, out, there, I, think, actually makes, a, lot, of, sense, yeah, like, don't, get
57:28
Speaker A
me, wrong, I, I, I'm, I, don't, want, to, be, a hypocrite, I've, been, upset, at, people posting, edges, before, like, especially, if someone, post, something, in, a, sport, that, I bet, on, which, I, already, know, about, that's going, to, trigger, me, I, think, that's, only
57:39
Speaker A
natural, there's, also, another, part, of, me that, that, thinks, to, myself, like, I, wish this, guy, would, have, just, reached, out, to me, and, I, could, have, connect, facilitated something, for, them, where, everybody, earns off, it, like, those, go, through, my, head, but
57:53
Speaker A
I, I, think, most, Pros, really, struggle, to see, like, the, other, side, of, the, equation and, understand, yeah, those, connections aren't, there, and, like, this, person, wasn't out, to, get, you, by, posting, the, edge, or anything, like, that, right, yeah, yeah, I
58:09
Speaker A
mean, it's, one, of, those, situations everybody, who, bets, before, me, I'm, like, oh my, God, are, you, betting, this, early, what are, you, doing, and, everybody, after, me, I'm like, oh, those, are, the, breaks, of, the, game sorry, buddy, I, I, had, to, get, in, there, but
58:20
Speaker A
it's, like, the, guy, who, bets, on, Sunday it's, a, it's, a, offline, I'm, like, you, can't wait, till, goddamn, the, day, I, bet, like that's, actually, the, perfect, time, to, bet it, anybody, who, bet, before, that, they're just, going, too, early, anybody, after, not
58:31
Speaker A
my, problem, yeah, the, pick, selling, space is, highly, controversial, nowadays, I, think that's, been, brought, to, the, Forefront, now with, the, emergence, of, uh, you, know companies, like, dub, club, and, [ __ ], and winnable, in, your opinion, what's, the, line
58:50
Speaker A
between, let's say, offering, value, and, misleading, people or, or, do, you, view, the, the, you, know, the the, public, sentiment, I, know, I, shouldn't say, the, public, the, sentiment, shared, by, a lot, of, the, sharps, as, like, all, totes, are
59:04
Speaker A
bad, as, just, the, the, moral, thing, to preach, to, the community, yeah, I, I, think, in, theory, it actually, could, make, a, lot, of, sense, to have, someone, who's, like, hey, it's, way easier, rather, than, trying, to, get, down, at
59:21
Speaker A
all, these, places, if, you, could theoretically, send, it, out, to, a, bunch, of people, who, are, probably, losing, betters in, other, ways, so, they, have, accounts, to go, and, this, is, a, way, for, them, to, make slightly, more, um, as, they're, betting, I
59:33
Speaker A
think, it, makes, sense, in, a, lot, of, ways, um I, I, think, the, problem, is, anybody, who is, going, to, buy, picks, almost, by definition, doesn't, have, a, good understanding, of, what, they're, buying because, if, you, were, able, to, truly
59:49
Speaker A
understand, what, was, going, in, to, a, lot, of it, you, wouldn't, buy, the, picks, so, like there, there, is, a, situation, where, it's really, tough, and, that, regard, and, then, I again, especially, now, with, places, that are, so, quick, to, limit, and, it's, not, like
60:02
Speaker A
before, where, it, was, a, true, Marketplace really, um, with, a, lot, of, these, bets, it's not, you're, not, betting, into, a, market anymore, you're, betting, in, it's, more, you vers, the, book, than, it, used, to, be, you versus, everyone, else, um, at, least, in
60:17
Speaker A
specific, markets, obviously, once, you, get to, the, real, top, level, it's, more, of, a true, Marketplace, but, if, you're, talking any, kind, of, props, even, um, if, you're talking early, uh, early, small, limit, stuff, like that, a, lot, of, it, is, you, versus, the
60:32
Speaker A
bookmaker, so, it, does, make, sense, that, you would, buy, p, in, that, regard, um, the problem, is, it's, just, not, only, is, it people, that, don't, know, what, they're buying, I, think, it's, really, hard, just, in general, to, create, a, record, that, is, fully
60:48
Speaker A
transparent, fully, honest, so, the, other day, I, A, lot, of, times, what, I'll, do, is I'll, run, the, prop, my, prop, set, at, night and, then, in, the, morning, I'll, go, in, I'll recheck, what's, moved, out, of, place, Etc, um
61:01
Speaker A
and, then, you, know, throughout, the, day, I trade, it, and, I, ran, it, um, I, took, the, day off, I, didn't, end, up, betting, it, really much, at, all, and, I, was, going, to, put, these plays, into, my, own, recordkeeping, and, I
61:14
Speaker A
was, like, well, I, didn't, I, had, a, bad, day it, was, you, know, maybe, I, was, two, and eight, I, was, like, well, you, know, I, didn't really, bet, these, like, should, these, count now, I'm, not, getting, any, more, dollars
61:23
Speaker A
either, way, either, way, whether, I, put those, in, or, not, but, it's, there's, always going, to, be, kind, of, edge, cases, and, it's so, always, going, to, be, tempting, to, kind of, cheat, on, those, edge, cases, even, if
61:33
Speaker A
you're, doing, it, like, to, yourself, if you're, a, competitive, person, you, want your, record, and, like, you, can, talk yourself, into, actually, this, is, what's fair, and, I, think, a, lot, of, times, even, if you, have, good, intentions, what, you, end, up
61:45
Speaker A
doing, is, kind, of, making, every, little Fringe, case, you, end, up, being, more generous, to, yourself, than, you, probably should, be, um, and, I, think, it's, just, human nature, and, hard, to, kind, of, dispel, so, I, I do, think, that, there, probably, are, value
62:00
Speaker A
and, picks, that, you, can, buy, um, I, think being, able, to, keep, up, with, which, on, you should, is, going, to, be, so, hard, that, it's basically, you, know, in, theory, could, exist but, in, practice, it's, really, hard, to, do
62:11
Speaker A
yeah, that, was, really, well, said, because as, you, were, saying, it, I, could, even, think of, myself, doing, that, and, and, I'm, not, a tote, but, I'm, I, I, bet, on, Sports, for, my livelihood, but, I, also, have, a, Content
62:22
Speaker A
business, and, you, know, I, will, put, out picks, one, week, that, will, be, be, bad, on, on on, the, shows, but, I, I, will, always, be, well you, know, I, did, hit, an, SGP, on, a, live watch, along, that, paid, 60, to1, where's
62:36
Speaker A
that, where, why, aren't, you, talking, about that, you, can, always, find, a, way, to rationalize, even, when, you're, trying, not to, part, of, it, is, just, being, competitive in, nature, but, um, yeah, it's, it's, really it's, really, challenging, for, the, average
62:49
Speaker A
person, to, not try, even, unconsciously, to, make themselves, look, better yeah, I, think, even, to, yourself, it's really, hard, not, to, do, like, whenever you're, thinking, of, a, situ, well, that, that situation, really, doesn't, count, if, you think, about, it, or, you, know, if, you, say
63:07
Speaker A
you're, betting, a, oneoff, say, I, bet, the Super, Bowl, and, I, don't, usually, bet, any NFL, it's, like, oh, well, I, did, bad, in, the Super, Bowl, that's, I'm, not, really, bad, in the, NFL, that, you, know, whether, how, much
63:18
Speaker A
you, want, to, factor, that, in, or, if, you have, a, good, day, it's, much, easier, to, be like, oh, well, obviously, it's, all, money, in the, bank, the, same, way, I, think, it's there's, always, going, to, be, some, kind, of
63:26
Speaker A
line, where, you, group, things, in, a specific, way, and, it's, really, hard, to, be honest, with, yourself, even, again, if, it's just, you, know, trying, to, be, competitive uh, you, know, you, just, always, want, to think, that, you're, better, than, you, are
63:38
Speaker A
and, myself, included, I, always, am, like striving, to, be, like, oh, actually, this, is why, this, doesn't apply, Twitter, spaces, have, become, a, big part, of, gambling, qu, culture, right, now, uh but, a, lot, of, people, have, pointed, out, the
63:55
Speaker A
change, is, over, the, last, couple, months where, they, started, as, you, know, kind, of exposing, scammers, and, grifters, in, the space, to, nowadays, maybe, putting, them, on a, pedestal, um, more, of, the, spaces, being beef, driven, you, know, arguments, with, one
64:14
Speaker A
another, in, your, point, of, view, has, the trends, space, been, good, or, bad, for, the betting Community, I, could, to, say, I'm, not, them honestly, as, much, as, I, like, to, consume what, happened, in, them, afterwards, I, found
64:31
Speaker A
a, lot, of, times, when, I, go, into, them, it's actually, um, let's, listen, to, the, mentally ill, guy, ramble, for, a, few, hours, here, as we, kill, time, in, order, to, do, different things, and, um, when, you're, actually, in
64:43
Speaker A
them, they're, a, lot, more, boring, than, what you, think, but, I, do, like, catching, up reading, up, on, them, after, it's interesting, um, I, don't, know, if, I necessarily, buy, that, it's, was, you, know once, this, really, pure, place, that
64:55
Speaker A
everybody, it, feels, like, uh, when, Mad, Men started, and, they, like, went, back, to, the 1950s, everybody, looks, as, wholesome, and it's, like, actually, everybody, was, always a, degenerate, all, the, time, right, it's like, actually, elf, spaces, were, always
65:06
Speaker A
garbage, do, I, feel, elf, himself, is, really like, I, I, mean, he's, really, embracing, the lifestyle, he, likes, to, live, it, up, sure, um and, I, I, mean, but, I, think, it's, been pretty, clear, from, the, beginning, that, the
65:21
Speaker A
goal, was, viewed, and, to, do, that, at, all cost, and, you, know, it, is, what, it, is, you just, got, to, take, it, at, face, value, you shouldn't, kind, of, put, this, moral, value onto, something, that's, never, headed, in
65:33
Speaker A
the, first, place yeah, fair, enough, um, I, used, to participate, them, in, the, early, I, would say, definitely, the, vibe, of, them, has shifted, but, to, your, point, it, might, not have, been, like, yeah, that's, like, this moral, High, Ground, it, was, always, like
65:46
Speaker A
let's, bring, on, the, scammer, that, was, kind of, the, the, thing, that, was, always, the thing, but, in, the, early, going, I, think, it was, um, much, more, geared, towards potentially, exposing that, person, where, and, elf, would, still
65:59
Speaker A
take, the, side, of, of, the, scammer, to, just keep, it, going, whereas nowadays, um, I, I, think, it's, this, is, my own, opinion, lots, of, people, enjoy, it they've, grown, a, lot, but, it, kind, of, feels like, it's, jump, the, shark, a, little, too
66:12
Speaker A
far, in, the, opposite, direction, I, I, envy you, for, not, participating, but, being, able to, catch, up, after, the, fact, that's, the life, I, would, like, to, live, unfortunately I, am, a, bit, addicted, to, the, drama, uh fully, willing, to, admit, it, and, if
66:28
Speaker A
everyone, was, just, like, you, Mike, the spaces, wouldn't, exist, if, we, were, all catching, up, after, the, fact, there, there would, be, nothing, going, on, in, real, time and, there, needs, to, be, something, going, on in, real, time, yeah, I, I, will, say, I, think
66:39
Speaker A
you're, right, in, the, fact, at, first, it, was you, know, more, of, an, arbitrator, of, what's going, on, here, what's, happening, now, you have, Al, you, know, wh, sea, Perry, in, a, hotel room, and, they're, being, friends, and, then
66:53
Speaker A
he's, going, with, the, man, advaned, hockey Gam, and, they're, tweeting, out, every single, thing, of, it, and, I, I, don't, know especially, like, you, know, with, Shawn Perry, he's, like, oh, Spanky's, been, this Mentor, towards, me, and, Shan, Perry's, like
67:05
Speaker A
you, know, yelling, horrible, things, at, him I, thought, if, you, that, guy's, been, a mentor, to, you, and, you're, just, like, oh well, you, know, whatever, and, Spanky doesn't, bother, it, so, maybe, I'm, you, know a, fool, for, caring, about, something, he
67:17
Speaker A
doesn't, seem, to, care, about, but, I, just, I don't, know, I, think, you're, right, in, the fact, that, it, does, seem, like, he's, more, a part, of, the, content, now, as, opposed, to Bringing, on, the, clown, show, it's, like
67:26
Speaker A
like, he's, part, of, the, clown, show, but yeah, I, I, don't, know, the, one, time, I logged, in, to, spaces, it, was, probably, you know, maybe, two, days, apart, and, both, of them, they, were, talking, about, like, you
67:37
Speaker A
know, if, you, don't, get, things, together here, you, might, go, down, and, kill, yourself I, was, like, things, are, getting, a, little dark, and, Grim, here, was, uh, you, know, I can't, remember, the, ex, two, people, it, was
67:48
Speaker A
I, think, it, was, that, mey, guy, or, one, of them, I, don't, know, but, I, was, like, you know, once, we, reach, the, last, two, times I've, logged, in, it's, been, two, kind, of, end your, life, conversations, I, thought, I
67:58
Speaker A
don't, know, I, don't, know, it's, it's, it's, a lot, it, seems, a, lot, more, interesting, on the, clips, and, then, you, go, in, and, it's just, it's, you're, getting, the, highlights compared, to, when, you're, actually, in there, it's, a, lot, more, killing, time, at
68:11
Speaker A
least, maybe, I'm, just, entering, in, at, the wrong, times, no, no, it, is, that, in, my opinion, too, it's, extremely, Hit, or, Miss like, people, think, I, spend, all, night, in these, spaces, I, don't, I, really, don't especially, when, my, wife, is, around, I, mean
68:23
Speaker A
it's, not, even, a, possibility, for, me, but really, she, doesn't, she, doesn't, like, the fact, that, you're, listening, into, a, spes about, Twitter, game, like, I, can't, imagine your, wife, want, to, be, glued, in, every second, of, it, you, know, what, she, she, says
68:37
Speaker A
she's, not, interested, but, she, provides her, commentary, whenever, they're, on, in the, background, she's, always, providing some, sort, of, commentary, like, obviously this, guy, is, lying, obviously, like, this guy, is, overcompensating, for, something, so you, know, we, can, pretend, that, she, doesn't
68:52
Speaker A
like, them, but, she, does, um, I, I, just, for me, the, when, I, when, I, think, back, on, the whole thing, all, the, all, the, the, characters that, used, to, get, quote, unquote, roasted in, the, beginning, you, know, when, the
69:05
Speaker A
spaces, first, took, off, there, was, a, lot, of um, people, who, were, the villains, and, those, villains, are, like, now the, good, guys, and, that, that, to, me, kind of, shows, that, it's, trended, way, too, the when, like, people, who, are, literally
69:22
Speaker A
selling, packages, and, fleecing, customers that, know, that, they're, losing, betters, or are, now, like, the, good, people, the, moral authorities, in, the, space, that's, how, I know, it's, gone, too, far, so, I, I, don't, have a, lot, of, interest, in, being, around, that
69:37
Speaker A
and, I, don't, participate, un, unless, like, I get, a, message, on, telegram, that's, like wow, like, you, got, to, go, in, now, it's, it's getting, I'm, not, devoting, a, whole, nights to, that anymore, yeah, I, I, think, it's, a, lot, more
69:48
Speaker A
interesting, when, there's, someone, you know, I, understand, why, they, don't, want, it to, be, just, a, bunch, of, Sharps, coming, in and, bowling, some, idiot, who, doesn't, know what's, going, on, but, it, is, nice, when there's, at, least, one, person, there, to
69:59
Speaker A
kind, of, just, because, it, would, be, like, if I, was, debating, something, I, knew, nothing about, if, I, was, debating, uh, you, know, some kind, of, medical, piece, of, information with, doctors, I'd, look, like, a, complete idiot, so, when, they, come, in, there, and
70:12
Speaker A
it's, the, person, who's, selling, things, and they, just, don't, know, the, basics, of, like whatever, they're, talking, about, um, it, it really, is, that, it, was, funny, in, that regard, I, I, tuned, into, I, was, uh, listening when, it, was, the, you, know, if, I, bet, 100K
70:27
Speaker A
games, at, your, age, I, put, a, [ __ ], bow, in my, head, that, I, gotta, say, I, was, like, okay now, I, kind, of, get, like, the, highlights, of it, that, was, it, it, does, reach, good, levels
70:36
Speaker A
of, content, it's, just, it's, I, think, the sustainability, of, it, is, and, I, don't, know how, much, longer, they, can, keep, pushing, it feels, like, it's, uh, you, know, in, WWE, where you, first, they're, fighting, on, thumb, text
70:48
Speaker A
then, they, have, Hell, in, a, Cell, and, then all, of, a, sudden, Undertakers, being, buried alive, it, feels, like, we're, kind, of, at, the Buried, Alive, stage, of, it, oh, it's, way more, extreme, than, that, like, at, the, first
70:57
Speaker A
at, the, start, it, was, it, was, like, Stone Cold, versus, McMahon, you, know, it, was, like those, years, it, was, like, Peak, now, we're at, like, you, know, horn, swaggle, is, Vince McMahon's, son, you, know, type, of, cont, the
71:11
Speaker A
worst, possible, storyline, ever, you, know that's, where, it's, gone, to, at, this, point but, listen, lots, of, people, enjoy, it, um, I still, occasionally, do, uh, and, I, will, keep up, with, it, because, it's, kind, of, my, job
71:22
Speaker A
at, this, point, as, well, but, to, to, your point, Mike, you, know you, can't, just, do, and, and, I, I, learned this, with, circles, off, right, with, this brand, you, can, do, in, my opinion, good, sharp, betting, content, like
71:38
Speaker A
I, stand, by, some, of, the, best, interviews we've, had, on, this, channel, obviously we've, done, some, stuff, that, that, didn't work, out, but, I, I, think, we, had, some, like really, really, strong, educational, content on, here, where, it, reaches, like, 10,000
71:54
Speaker A
people, you, know, viewership, another, maybe 20, 30,000, listenership, but, that's, it like, that's, that's, the, max, there's, just not, that, much, of, an, appetite, for, this stuff, you, know, I, I, don't, I, don't, even this, will, sound, conceited, and, and, maybe
72:10
Speaker A
it, is, but, like, I, do, I, go, on, a, couple times, a, week, on, our, hockey, uh, brand, Edge workk, I'm, not, the, best, hockey, better, in the, world, at, this, point, maybe, I, never was, but, I, was, I, was, up, there, like, for
72:26
Speaker A
years, my, models, numbers, were, the, closing numbers, like, that, that's, the, people, that were, moving, for, me, had, so, much confidence, in, those, numbers, that, they would, bet, them, to, those, numbers, and, we can, draw, like, 500, views, on, a, day, where
72:42
Speaker A
i'm, on, and, there's, like, another, hockey live, stream, where, I, I, listen, to, the, guy talk, that's, doing, like, 10K, views, daily it, it's, not, the, game, is, is, changed, it's about, who, can, Market, themselves, the, best it, has, nothing, to, do, necessarily, with
72:58
Speaker A
the, sharpness, and, and, people, just, don't want, it, and, and, you, got, to, come, to realize, that, at, some, point, so, for, me, as much, as, I, don't, love, the, direction, that they're, going, if, your, goal, is, to, appeal
73:09
Speaker A
to, the, masses, this, seems, to, be, working relative, to, what, you, know, letting, Man, Of The, Vig, Grill, someone, for, half, an, hour on, a, space, that, just, doesn't, seem, to, be working, yeah, I, mean, if, I, I, do, wonder, if
73:25
Speaker A
there, is, there's, at, least, a, little, bit more, there's, casual, viewers, and, then there's, people, who, are, actually, locked in, and, listening, I, would, guarantee, you you, know, I'm, you're, sure, you, guys actually, have, metrics, that, look, at, it
73:36
Speaker A
but, you, know, there's, more, buyin, from people, who, are, seriously, considering, the information, than, probably, a, lot, of, this kind, of, background, noise, uh, you, know crazy, whatever, like, if, whatever, noo spaces, pop, up, they're, much, more, likely
73:51
Speaker A
to, tune, in, because, they're, just, chasing the, next, high, as, opposed, to, someone, who once, you, start, to, listen, to, someone, for a, while, you, know, you, start, to, get, in, the habit, of, listening, to, them, and everything, like, that, and, I, think, that, in
74:03
Speaker A
some, areas, it's, it's, really, easy, to criticize, whatever, content, is, playing and, I, know, that, I, can, probably, look, at my, shell, for, that, a, lot, of, times, it's like, oh, but, you're, doing, nothing, like, at least, they're, trying, to, put, some, kind, of
74:14
Speaker A
good, into, the, like, you, know, even, if, it's not, the, absolute, sharpest, or, they, got one, thing, wrong, it's, still, probably, net positive, but, these, are, absolutely, zero net, positive, there's, pretty, much, nothing that, is, being, uh, gained, or, insightful, it
74:27
Speaker A
it, also, cracks, me, up, that, they're, like all, right, you, know, Spanky, you, come, on here, multi-millionaire, you, know, one, of the, most, successful, betters, ever, and then, we're, going, to, give, equal, time, to man, the, library, you, think, sports, are
74:38
Speaker A
scripted, go, ahead, like, what's, your counter, it's, you, know, I, like, how, absurd that, sounds, and, like, when, you, actually lay, it, out, is, insane, but, it, really, is, uh we're, g, to, do, some, rapid, fire, here, in, a
74:49
Speaker A
second, before, we, do, quick, plug, because it's, very, topical, right, now, tomorrow morning Friday, 8:00, amm, eastern, time, we're debuting, a, brand, new, second, Circle, back of, the, week, with, a, new, cast, of characters, Jacob, will, be, hosting, Joey
75:08
Speaker A
KES, Chris, dekus, flop, no, Li, and, Jeff nadoo, you, do, not, want, to, miss, that, we're doing, two, a, week, going, forwards, because you, know, what, we, got, to, capitalize, on the, entertainment, Trend, that's, what, we do, when, we're, in, the, content, space, uh
75:21
Speaker A
but, a, interesting, cast, of, characters honestly, might, even, be, better, than, the Tuesday, shows, so, you're, going, to, want, to check, that, out, Mike, rapid, fire, I, like doing, this, kind, of, stuff, with, guests, uh a, lot, of, these, have, just, they, came
75:31
Speaker A
through, q&as, when, I, had, can, studio, so, I might, as, well, fire, some, stuff, at, you, as well, uh, worst, bad, beat, of, your life, I, don't, know, if, it's, the, worst, one but, I, will, say, the, the, Super, Bowl, this
75:43
Speaker A
season, uh, it, was, to, back, toback, I, had under, uh, two, and, a, half, people, throwing the, pass, and, I, looked, into, it, and, I, was like, well, you, know, the, Eagles, and, I, I don't, bet, NFL, so, I'm, kind, of, hopping, in
75:57
Speaker A
a, Super, Bowl, I, try, to, do, the, props, that are, not, being, priced, every, week, y because, obviously, those, are, getting, more bet, in, place, by, people, who, know, what they're, doing, uh, you, know, if, it's, kind of, more, random, more, kicking, stuff, that's
76:09
Speaker A
stuff, that, you, can, hop, in, once, a, year and, there's, not, as, much, State, on, it, so, I did, the, under, two, and, a, half, passes, I was, really, proud, of, like, looking, into, it I'm, like, you, know, with, the, Eagles
76:16
Speaker A
defensive, line, they're, just, not, going, to have, time, to, run, any, kind, of, slow developing, play, and, then, you, have, Chris Jones, and, you, know, looked, into, all, the different, types, of, passes, for, some reason, I, just, didn't, even, think, of, the
76:27
Speaker A
like, Prospect, of, a, backup, QB, coming, in and, throwing, a, pass, and, I, was, like, when Nick, FS, comes, in, I, I, was, like, he, he's not, gonna, throw, a, pass, if, you, have, the backup, in, he's, at, least, gonna, just, hand
76:38
Speaker A
the, ball, off, so, that, one, was, tough, uh especially, because, it, came, after, I, was really, big, on, longest, field, goal, under, I had, it, at, 49, 48, 47, and, a, half, um everybody, knew, Jake, Elliot, hadn't, made
76:51
Speaker A
long, kicks, all, year, um, but, also, Harrison bucker, when, he, after, came, back, from, the hamstring, he, only, had, one, attempt, of, 50 plus, yards, uh, and, it, was, at, Mile, High, at the, end, of, the, half, so, I, felt, really
77:03
Speaker A
good, about, that, one, and, on, that, third down, the, Eagles, got, I, don't, know, if, it was, like, six, yards, and, moved, it, within it, was, to, make, it, a, 40, uh, four, Yer, I said, I, even, said, out, loud, to, myself, oh
77:16
Speaker A
at, least, it's, within, the, thing, and, then that, foul, start, kind, of, that, backed, it up, to, make, it, good, at, every, single number, I, was, like, ah, that, was, a, killer um, so, I, I, mean, had, worse, beats, but, like
77:26
Speaker A
having, those, back, to, back, in, the, same game, really, for, this, season, stung because, it's, also, a, Super, Bowl, only comes, every, so, often, so, you, really, like there's, extra, pressure, to, have, it, be, a profitable, day, and, that, like, took, me
77:36
Speaker A
from, I, mean, I, had, so, much, on, the, field goal, one, was, like, one, of, the, bigger positions, I've, had, so, that, was, rough Yeah, you, mentioned, Nick, fos, it, was, Kenny picket, that, was, but, we, we, always, get, our
77:46
Speaker A
backup, quarterbacks, and, Carson, Wentz, on the, other, side, who, was, warming, up, as well, at, one, point, in, the, game, um, anyways yeah, too, many, former, Eagles, backups there, you, know, exactly, uh, okay, on, the other, side, of, things, the, best, win, you've
77:58
Speaker A
ever had, uh, when, I, was, kind, of, you, know, first starting, off, I've, been, betting, but, when your, bank, R, is, still, growing, it, has, the chance, to, grow, kind, of, more exponentially, which, is, exciting, uh Caesars, had, just, a, flip, line
78:15
Speaker A
of, the, heat, were, up, two1, against, the Knicks, in, the, Eastern, Conference semi-finals, and, they, had, the, heat, with, a worst, chance, to, win, the, Eastern Conference, Finals, it, it, was, obviously, a wrong, line, which, um, you, know, I, went, back
78:30
Speaker A
to, my, house, got, some, cash, out, that, as much, as, I, could, on, it, um, and, you, know, if you, just, won, that, it, would, be, great, they end, up, winning, it, was, plus, 900, I, think um, but, what, ended, up, happening, was, I
78:45
Speaker A
waited, to, I, was, gonna, hedge, it, out, and, I was, like, ah, I'm, gonna, wait, through, the first, game, I, didn't, think, the, first, game line, was, totally, right, you, know, probably not, was, definitely, was, not, at, that, time
78:55
Speaker A
enough, better, to, actually, know, but, I waited, for, the, first, two, games, Miami wins, the, first, two, um, I, end, up, betting actually, for, the, series, to, go, seven, when I, do, it, at, Westgate, they, adjust, only, the
79:09
Speaker A
Boston, side, of, it, so, I, bet, Miami, in seven, so, then, Boston, goes, down, 3, 0, I, bet Boston, all, three, games, going, into game7, and, I, ended, up, like, I, mean, I, think I, ended, up, being, like, almost, double, my
79:25
Speaker A
bankroll, on, this, single, bet, that, I, ended up, getting, Miami, to, win, the, Eastern Conference, Miami, to, win, in, seven, uh, game to, go, seven, games, won, three, Boston, bats it, was, just, like, a, alltime, series, of euphoria, amazing, great, story, love, to
79:40
Speaker A
hear, stuff, like, that, um, me, and, kenish were, asked, the, most, obscure, market, we've ever, bet, on, I'm, betting, Japanese, stock exchanges, I, know, you, bet, some, UFL, but there's, got, to, be, there's, got, to, be, more obscure, than, that
79:55
Speaker A
this, year, um, the, the, Pro, Bowl, Market, I bet, the, Pro, Bowl, total, some, a, book, that I, uh, have, is, an, offshore, uh, you, know some, of, these, books, you, know, they, allow unlimited, parlays, yep, basically, to, some
80:12
Speaker A
extent, so, the, Pro, Bowl, scoring, changed last, year, prior, to, the, theme, they, put, in these, like, they, have, these, mini, games that, are, worth, six, points, to, piece, and they, had, it, by, quarters, and, they switched, it, to, doing, it, by, half, I, think
80:28
Speaker A
so, they, changed, it, last, year, and, the total, went, way, up, so, they, kind, of, did, an average, for, the, Pro, Bowl, total, um, of, the like, the, past, three, years, or, however since, it's, been, touch, when, it, really
80:39
Speaker A
should, have, been, higher, than, that, and then, they, added, two, more, like, mini, games which, should, have, raised, the, total, by, an additional, 12, points, so, I'm, looking, at this, I'm, like, okay, it's, priced, wrong sweet, they, didn't, realize, the, rule
80:54
Speaker A
change, and, I, go, to, hit, like, B, Max, and the, limits, this, I, mean, this, account, was like, relatively, new, but, it's, not, $9,000 limits, so, like, I, was, expecting, just, to be, like, these, little, couple, hundred dollar, things, I'm, like, looking, I'm, like
81:10
Speaker A
what, they're, taking, the, same, limits, as they, would, on, uh, you, know, a, full, game like, normal, NFL, game, total, so, I, look, I'm like, okay, I, thought, I, was, right, before but, if, I'm, going, to, be, hammering, this, I
81:22
Speaker A
got, to, really, make, sure, yeah, the, pro they, don't, release, an, official, rule, book for, the, Pro, Bowl, so, I'm, like, looking, at random, like, press, releases, at, the, NFL and, trying, to, like, triple, check, every single, thing, to, make, sure, that, this
81:38
Speaker A
total, like, that, the, rules, are, what, I think, they, are, because, it's, not, like anybody, actually, gives, a, [ __ ], about, the Provo, rules, so, I'm, like, really, trying, to double, check, and, everything, is, just, a press, release, I, can't, tell, if, it's, right
81:50
Speaker A
but, finally, I, like, really, like, lock, into to, three, different, sources, make, sure that, the, rules, are, what, I, think, and, had you, know, a, sizable, position, on, Pro, Bowl uh, over, this, game, and, let, me, tell, you
82:03
Speaker A
you, want, to, talk, about, a, sweat, when nobody, gives, their, [ __ ], about, the, game that's, occurring, and, I'm, like, y, I'm, like you, gotta, get, out, of Bones, they're, just, like, casually, jogging around, them, screaming, for, team, ey, so
82:18
Speaker A
yeah, that, would, that, was, uh, this, year, so it, was, uh, it, did, go, over, thank, God, uh bet, online, I, think, open, the, line, it, was like, 12, points, below, what, it, should, be so, I, just, kept, hitting, it, continuously
82:29
Speaker A
as, they, like, would, adjust, it, by, 10, cents each, time, I, was, like, I, can't, believe, I have, pro, bowl, over, so, yeah, that, would, be the, one, I, love, that, story, I've, actually had, some, real, sweats, over, the, years, on
82:42
Speaker A
uh, on, Allstar, games, across, different leagues, as, well, always, yeah, they, don't play, like, a, regular, game, so, stuff, that applies, that, you, just, know, is, going, to happen, in, a, regular, game, guy's, going, to go, out, of, bounds, stop, the, clock, this, and
82:53
Speaker A
that, yeah, just, doesn't, apply, to, you, know NHL, All-Star, games, you, can, cap, them, all you, want, but, uh, when, one, guy, shows, up that, doesn't, give, a, [ __ ], and, he's, just out, for, a, leisurely, skate, you, know
83:05
Speaker A
you're, yelling, at, the, TV, for, sure, but but, those, are, where, the, real, Ed, like, you know, everybody, know, when, you're, trying to, price, something, that, like, everybody has, a, good, idea, of, what, the, question actually, is, that, the, EDG, can, only, be, so
83:18
Speaker A
big, but, if, you, know, that, actually, we're playing, a, totally, different, ball, game here, I, remember, for, the, NBA, Allstar, game Anthony, Edwards, said, he's, like, oh, I'm going, to, shoot, left-handed, so, when, that came, out, you, have, to, just, go, try, to, find
83:31
Speaker A
every, honor, you, can, it's, like, you, know whatever, the, price, is, you, just, gota, he's playing, leftand, you, got, to, try, to, find, a way, so, like, those, are, really, like, the Dumber, the, bet, in, a, way, the, bigger, the
83:41
Speaker A
edge, can, be, so, y, That's, where, if, you're able, to, find, a, way, where, you, can actually, get, get, down, on, it, those, are like, the, real, exciting, ones, where, they don't, give, a, [ __ ], what's, happening, on
83:50
Speaker A
the, field, and, you're, like, I, actually care, so, much, more, than, anyone, involved in, this, game, right, uh, if, you, could, grab dinner, with, three, people, we're, limiting it, to, three, from, gambling, Twitter, who's at, the, table, with, you
84:05
Speaker A
Mike, so, first, one, I, want, I, I, have, two choices, here, I, think, we, do, c blz, grp, and zilbert, I, think, we, finally, solved, this war, in, the, Middle, East, thing, we, put these, three, Minds, together, maybe, while
84:21
Speaker A
with, their, knockout, racism, real, quick, I think, that, put, those three, grp, with, you, is, g, to, knock, you said, racism, not, sexism, never, mind, you can, go, yeah, no, there's, limits, to, what, we can, do, okay, even, even, those, Minds, you
84:36
Speaker A
know, there's, limits, I'll, have, uh, JP teach, me, his, napkin, under, the, plate trick, to, keep, the, syrup, on, one, actually I, gotta, say, this, a, good, idea, it's, like everybody's, joking, with, them, I, was, like that's, actually, a, very, that's, a, pretty
84:50
Speaker A
thoughtful, thing, I'm, not, gonna, lie, to you, I've, since, been, out, for, breakfast one, one, time, and, I, had, french, toast, on the, side, and, I, I, did, the, uh, I, did, the napkin, trick, it, it's, it's, good, I, was
85:01
Speaker A
concerned, I'd, have, issues, like, cutting on, the, other, side, of, the, plate, you, don't it, actually, is, totally, fine, so, uh, grp affecting, affecting, lives, out, there, for the, better, uh, no, but, uh, for, actually, I would, say, one, uh, Rufus, I, think, Rufus, is
85:18
Speaker A
probably, obviously, much, much, better better, than, I, am, but, I, think, he, kind, of sees, things, similarly, in, the, fact, that it, always, seems, like, he's, trying, to, pick out, what, the, question, is, I, guess, rather then, what's, the, best, way, to, solve, this
85:34
Speaker A
it's, should, we, actually, be, asking, a different, question, entirely, uh, so, I think, kind, of, just, asking, him, a, few things, kind, of, about, how, how, he approaches, it, would, be, interesting, uh Spanky, because, he's, the, exact, opposite
85:46
Speaker A
of, what, I, am, um, you, know, I, I, would really, any, kind, of, tap, down, better, I think, would, be, interesting, just, because I, don't, because, I'm, trying, to, always, you know, bet, earlier, with, propser, not, really following, the, market, that, much, uh, with
86:01
Speaker A
college, football, if, I, was, betting, larger I, would, probably, you, know, be, more, in tune, with, where, the, market, is, moving, and things, like, that, because, you're, waiting till, later, uh, so, anybody, who, kind, of understands, how, the, markets, work, I, think
86:14
Speaker A
that, that, would, be, really, interesting just, to, kind, of, you, know, gauge, their opinion, on, when, how, different, things work, like, that, because, that's, an, area that, I, don't, think, I'm, very, good, at, um and, then, third, I, kind, of, cheated, Bill
86:25
Speaker A
Connelly, is, a, college, football, Advanced stats, guy, I, think, he's, probably, the, most underrated, of, the, advanced, you, know, if you're, talking, like, Bill, James, Dean Oliver, you, know, kind, of, the, advanced stats, people, that, kind, of, brought, it, to
86:37
Speaker A
the, Forefront, yeah, he, did, for, college football, I, think, he, and, he's, like, still ready, now, obviously, not, that, old, of, a guy, it's, just, college, football, was, so far, behind, I, just, think, he's, kind, of, got a, really, interesting, perspective, I, love
86:50
Speaker A
Bill, Connelly, I, uh, I, saw, him, in, Boston, a few, weeks, back, we, chatted, for, a, little bit, uh, I, spent, a, Super, Bowl, with, him, in Costa, Rica, where, we, were, at, a, bet, online party, uh, it, was, the, worst, Super, Bowl
87:02
Speaker A
ever, was, the, Rams, Patriots, year, um, but we, had, a, blast, big, fan, of, Bill, Connelly um, yeah, yeah, anybody, anybody, who's learning, or, trying, to, get, more, into college, football, betting, or, college football, analytics, his, like, he, call, it's
87:17
Speaker A
like, a, study, hall, series, he, wrote, for ESP, Nation, I, think, is, kind, of, like, the that's, the, place, you, start, with, and, then you, can, go, from, there, yeah, uh, before, we wrap, I, I, know, there's, a, charity, you
87:27
Speaker A
wanted, to, highlight, there, was, one, thing you, asked, of, me, for, this, uh, interview, um so, I'll, give, you, the, floor, and, you, let people, know, however, they, can help, yeah, um, so, uh, April, is, Autism Awareness, Month, uh, you, know, if, you, work
87:43
Speaker A
in, sports, betting, you, probably, work, with someone, who's, somewhere, on, the, Spectrum um, but, in, all, seriousness, uh, my, my sister, uh, is, autistic, and, uh, there's, a organ, organiz, for, autism, research, I'll tweet, out, the, link, um, uh, you, can, also, go
87:58
Speaker A
to, it, just, research, autism.org uh, and, they, have, done, some, work, uh, in the, community, by, where, my, parents, live um, helping, out, different, places, and, uh you, know, everything, I've, seen, about, them they've, done, a, great, job, so, uh, anything
88:14
Speaker A
that, you, can, do, to, support, them, I, think they, help, out, a, lot, of, families, who, need it, um, it's, not, an, easy, situation, to, deal with, a, lot, of, times, so, uh, again, I'll I'll, tweet, out, something, uh, with, a, link
88:24
Speaker A
or, you, can, go, to, research, autism.org, we will, put, it, in, the, link, in, the description, below, so, anyone, can, check, it out, uh, noble, cause, really, appreciate, you you, giving, that, out, and, uh, definitely, I can, say, and, I, don't, mean, this, as, a, joke
88:38
Speaker A
but, there, are, a, lot, of, people, in, the sports, betting, space, who, are, autistic, I deal, with, some, of, them, on, a, daily, basis um, some, levels, worse, than, others obviously, uh, but, uh, I'm, I'm, all, for donating, to, to, Great, causes, and, we'll
88:50
Speaker A
definitely, put, that, in, the, link, in, the description, below, Mike, um, before, we, wrap it's, that, time, uh, plus, EV, minus, EV, moves of, the, week, I'll, give, you, the, floor could, be, anything, you, want, it's, on you, sure, so, plus, EV, uh, I, think, that, I
89:08
Speaker A
was, uh, reading, an, article, um, or, I, was listen, to, a, podcast, actually, don't, take the, time, to, actually, read, the, article listen, to, an, podcast, where, they, talked about, the, article, where, uh, it's, written by, Ben, Thompson, he's, a, technology, writer
89:22
Speaker A
and, he, talked, about, uh, whenever, you, see whenever, he, sees, a, technology, business do, something, that's, just, completely, dumb that, you, never, you, like, what, everybody just, is, pressing, for, he, thinks, okay, but you, know, why, would, a, smart, person, do
89:34
Speaker A
this, and, I, think, that, a, lot, of, times with, sports, we just, a, lot, of, times, we, have, this, idea, of oh, what, a, dumb, decision, like, you, know it's, not, like, those, guys, go, in, and, one they're, probably, not, complete, idiots, if
89:49
Speaker A
they've, gotten, to, this, level, that, you're watching, it, or, whatever, and, two, it's, not like, the, go, in, and, they, haven't, thought about, this, decision, before, it's something, they, thought, about, constantly and, while, you, might, not, agree, with, them
90:02
Speaker A
at, the, end, of, the, decision, I, think, it goes, even, Beyond, like, you, know, there's um, uh, steel, Manning, a, case, where, you kind, of, take, your, points, and, you, take the, counterpoints, I, think, to, actually put, yourself, in, their, shoes, and, think
90:15
Speaker A
okay, how, could, they, come, to, a, completely different, conclusion, than, I, would, based on, the, same, set, of, circumstances, and, I think, it, can, help, you, kind, of, cover, up some, blind, spots, where, one, you, can, view things, in, a, different, way, and, two, you
90:29
Speaker A
can, think, okay, what, do, I, not, know, here is, there, additional, information, that, I'm not, privy, to, um, that, can, kind, of, impact the, decision, at, hand, yeah, uh, that's unlike, anything, we've, we've, heard, before I'm, all, for, for, new, takes, in, this
90:43
Speaker A
segment, uh, minus EV, um, you, don't, have, to, optimize everything, so, say, you, just, wanted, to purchase, a, bottle, of, wine, and, you thinking, what, can, I, do, you, could, just, go to, the, store, I, know, where, we're, going, I
90:59
Speaker A
know, where, we're going, in, in, all, seriousness, I, I, think that, a, lot, of betters, there's, just, a, natural, sense, of and, I, I, fall, into, this, habit, this, is, the reason, I, like, came, up, with, it, is, every
91:11
Speaker A
single, decision, I'm, like, trying, to, get drain, the, most, out, of, every, resource, in every, situation, and, sometimes, like, in the, you, know, small, little, discreet moment, you, are, getting, the, most, out, of it, but, the, aggregate, of, trying, trying, to
91:24
Speaker A
get, the, just, most, efficient, outcome, and every, single, decision, you, make, can, be kind, of, draining, so, I, I, had, a, real, free uh, experience, uh, a, couple, months, ago, I was, like, you, know, what, I, I'm, just, not
91:36
Speaker A
going, to, give, a, [ __ ], about, credit, card points, anymore, I'm, just, going, to, do whatever, I'm, gonna, look, at, I'll, get, one card, that, I, think, is, relatively, decent but, it's, just, not, something, I'm, ever going, to, focus, on, again, and, whatever
91:49
Speaker A
it's, cost, me, it's, paid, off, tfold, in, far as, just, being, mentally, not, having, to work, about, that, and, I, think, a, lot, of times, another, example, kind, of, funny, one is, at, the, grocery, store, they, have, you
92:00
Speaker A
know, the, pre-bought, pineapple, that, you can, buy, where, they, cut, it, for, you, and they, put, I, used, to, I, used, to, think, who the, hell, would, buy, that, just, buy, and, cut the, pineapple, yourself, it, cost, so, much
92:11
Speaker A
more, to, do, this, and, you, know, what, I would, do, never, buy, pineapple, and, never cut, pineapple, so, if, you, just, try, to, seek out, every, single, most, optimized, thing it's, just, really, a, chore, to, go, through so, obviously, I, have, that, tendency, to, try
92:25
Speaker A
to, do, it, but, just, ease, up, on, it, a, little bit, and, I, think, it, will, make, things, a little, less, stressful, for, you, that brings, back, like, a, very, random, memory, in life, where, I, showed, up, at, a, pool, party
92:35
Speaker A
once, and, uh, someone, showed, up, after, me and, they, just, they, just, brought, a, uh full, pineapple, to, the, party, and, it, just it, just, sat, on, the, table, and, I, was thinking, like, when, I, was, in, the, I'm, like
92:46
Speaker A
it'd, be, really, nice, to, have, some pineapple, right, now, but, who, the, hell's going, to, cut, that, why, would, they, not just, buy, the, precord, pineapple, anyways very, random, moment, in, life, I, haven't thought, about, that, in, a, long, time, but
92:57
Speaker A
you, know, that, would, be, my, minus, EV, move of, the, week, if, you're, going, to, show, up to, a, like, a, pool, party, with, fruit, you you, you, got, to, like, if, you, you, bring, a fruit, platter, you, know, with, the, stuff
93:07
Speaker A
already, cut, up, don't, show, up, with, a, full melon, and, just, hand, it, to, the, host, there like, it's, not, the, way, do, in, general, any kind, of, party, the, most, underrated, aspect of, any, kind, of, food, you, bring, there, is
93:20
Speaker A
ease, of, use, nobody, wants, to, sit, down, and have, this, big, complicated, thing, it's like, what, can, I, kind, of, just, what, can get, me, through, the, day, as, I'm, you, know focused, on, other, things, I'm, not, here, to
93:30
Speaker A
have, a, meal, so, you're, right, yeah anything, that, I, have, to, cut, up, I'm, just going, to, pass, on, 100%, minus, EV, I've, seen people, show, up, around, Christmas, time with, like, full, walnuts, you, know, like, who the, hell, wants, to, crack, the, walnuts, with
93:43
Speaker A
the, Nutcracker, just, get, buy, the, walnuts that, are, already, out, of, the, shell, I don't, understand, it, I, don't, get, it, don't do, it, people, do, not, show, up, and, be, one of, those, people, that's, going, to, make, the
93:53
Speaker A
host, do, work, it's, a, big, mistake, what's not, a, mistake, would, be, following, Mike, on Twitter, mrmr, uncore, peanut, better, great follow, in, my, opinion, that's, just, my opinion, some, people, might, say, you're, not a, great, follow, I, happen, to, a, fact, I
94:10
Speaker A
would, I, would, go, far, enough, I, would, say it's, actually, ver, we'll, we'll, ask, chat JP, we'll, get, on, this, uh, maybe, I'll, bring it, up, to, C, blz, and, grp, at, the, table, that we, have, and, we'll, get, them, on, it, we'll
94:22
Speaker A
have, them, figured, out, I, got, to, say, I, I know, know, you, were, joking, about, that table, I'm, not, a, c, bless, guy, I, think, he's just, like, really, boring, and, annoying, but I, would, Hep, yeah, he's, better, in, small
94:33
Speaker A
samples, he, was, you, know, he, was, the, Muse in, my, eye, for, a, little, bit, uh, then, it's really, gone, to, zilbert, now, I, think zilbert, is, just, Peak, levels, of, Comedy when, he, let, the, dart, in, his, latest, video
94:45
Speaker A
I, was, like, that, I, mean, that, really, was the, peak, I, think, and, I'll, eventually, get bored, I'm, sure, and, find, someone, else that, you, know, to, laugh, with, but, I, think that, uh, yeah, I, I, agree, with, yanc, BL, he's
94:58
Speaker A
a, small, sample, guy, you, got, to, he, really kind, of, came, in, hot, and, then, he, was, like the, Yas, o, of, gambling, Twitter, Bingo great, great, comp, he, came, in, he, was firing, nobody, knew, who, the, hell, this, guy
95:10
Speaker A
was, he, emerged, on, the, scene, videos, were funny, for, a, little, bit, and, then, you're like, there's, just, nothing, more, to, this act, I'm, done, with, it, I, mean, you, could say, that, about, a, lot, of, people, but, their
95:20
Speaker A
acts, are, like, gp's, act, is, in, my, opinion might, be, put, into, bag, on, his, head, he might, be, you know, he, might, be, hitting, on, a, random woman, that's, half, his, age, he, might, be putting, napkins, under, plat, see, he's, just
95:34
Speaker A
got, the, one, move, so, big, fan, of, the, grp co, mask, which, was, yes, the, Ziploc, bag over, over, don't, recommend, that, people but, uh, yeah, those, that, was, that, was content, at, its, peak, make, sure, you, follow
95:46
Speaker A
Mike, on, Twitter, make, sure, you, sub, here on, circles, off, we're, trying, to, get, to 20K, subs, and, listen, I, promise, you, when we, do, get, to, 20K, I'm, just, going, to petition, for, you, to, keep, subbing, so, that
95:57
Speaker A
we, can, get, to, 30k, and, more, than, that, but please, if, you, do, watch, the, content regularly, hit, that, subscribe, buttton it's, just, a, vanity, metric, but, it, means, a lot, for, helping, us, monetize, so, please hit, that, if, you, enjoy, the, episode, make
96:10
Speaker A
sure, make, sure, you, like, it, hit, that thumbs, up, button, down, below, and, of course, comments, are, always, useful, as well, for, the, YouTube, algorithm, for, us, to grow, our, content, Circle, back, is, back tomorrow, we, got, a, fresh, new, interview
96:22
Speaker A
here, on, circles, off, next, week, peace, out every, I, hope, you, enjoyed, the, episode [Music]
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