Speaker A
We should open up above yesterday's close of 59,519.25. So, let me go back to the graph. We should open up above 51,898 up to this bottom mark, which is 52,077. So, what we'll do is we'll put a box there.
Live analysis of QQQ market open using Spread Monster's volatility waves and real market data for May 16, 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Spread Monster uses actual market data (ask, bid, option chain) rather than derived metrics like Greeks or implied volatility.
- The system identifies key price zones with sinusoidal waves that reflect historical volatility and market potential.
- Market opening price is predicted within a defined purple zone with probabilities for price movement inside or outside this range.
- The neural net/tree algorithm filters relevant waves, simplifying complex market data into actionable insights.
- Despite its sophistication, the system is not infallible and market price can deviate from predicted zones.
Summary
- The video analyzes expected QQQ market opening price ranges based on market makers' data and historical volatility.
- Uses Spread Monster tool to visualize sinusoidal waves representing price potential and volatility without relying on Greeks or implied volatility.
- Focuses on real market data from ask, bid, and option chains rather than derived theoretical values.
- Identifies a purple box zone where the market is likely to open and discusses the probability of price movements within this range.
- Explains the system's neural net/tree structure that filters and displays only four qualifying sinusoidal waves based on historical data.
- Discusses Friday splicing and how the system accounts for Thursday to Friday market transitions.
- Highlights the importance of wave flatness as an indicator of price potential and likelihood to move into certain price areas.
- Mentions the limitations of the system, acknowledging it can be wrong despite being data-driven.
- Shows how the system uses historical closes and opens to predict probable price zones and potential closing prices.
- Provides real-time updates and commentary on price action as the market opens and trades.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Opening Price Range Setup
- 02:01Market Makers' Opening Price Predictions
- 03:17Understanding Price Range and Volatility
- 04:50Using Real Market Data vs. Derived Metrics
- 07:09Neural Net and Sinusoidal Wave Filtering
- 08:31Thursday to Friday Market Splicing
- 09:41Price Movement and Closing Price Probabilities
- 11:00System Limitations and Real-Time Market Updates
- 15:38Summary and Final Market Observations
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
there 77. Oops. 52077 there. I'm down to 51925 there. And so it's saying this morning this is an area that we're likely to open up in right here. This gray box. I'll make it purple to make it easier. All right. So market makers
Speaker A
77. Oops. 52,077 there. I'm down to 51,925 there. And so, it's saying this morning this is an area that we're likely to open up in right here. This gray box. I'll make it purple to make it easier.
Speaker A
And since I pulled the graph a little bit before a close, um, this could be in a little bit different area, but I'll use that because not that big of a deal.
Speaker A
All right. So, market makers suggested from what they knew yesterday, we were going to open up in this purple area today. Somewhere in this purple area.
Speaker A
So market makers when I pull this graph at why is it updating 16? Oh I guess I just pulled it again. Okay. So anyways, from the green dotted line up to this bottom, that's where they had set um
Speaker A
And since I pulled the graph a little bit before close, this could be in a little bit different area, but I'll use that because it's not that big of a deal.
Speaker A
We're reflecting what the market's telling us. We're not using derived values here. This is what the market's telling us on these S-waves right here and right here. So that's factual information.
Speaker A
It could be a few pennies up or whatever, 50 cents up. So, what it does is it just gives us an idea of range.
Speaker A
and we calculate it out and display it. So it's showing us you know yesterday at close they were looking around 520 you know my hair is around 5285 right now. So, but somewhere in this area right here, they calculated out we'd be below
Speaker A
So, market makers when I pull this graph at—why is it updating 16? Oh, I guess I just pulled it again. Okay. So anyways, from the green dotted line up to this bottom, that's where they had set volatility using our volatility.
Speaker A
less potential there is to move into that price area. So they only create um this wave only gets created by potential. So the more potential the more there is in bins.
Speaker A
We're not using Greeks. We're not using implied volatility. We don't like that stuff. We're using what the markets— we're using the ask, the bid, the chain.
Speaker A
And why in God's name are there only like a couple of transitions when if I go look at my data, I've got a lot of Friday splice data, but yet over here I only have four things. I have four sinocular waves. And
Speaker A
We're reflecting what the market's telling us. We're not using derived values here. This is what the market's telling us on these S-waves right here and right here. So, that's factual information.
Speaker A
Oh, we just open. Price is changing on me. Did I accidentally select something different?
Speaker A
It's not being derived. It's what the market set its prices at. So, whereas you know IV is derived, all the Greeks, everything, you try to resolve for those variables. This is just absolutely what the market's showing us.
Speaker A
Um, so the reason there's only four sinocodial waves is because the system has a kind of this neural net built into it, a tree built into it. It's figuring out these four waves are the only ones that qualify based on that information.
Speaker A
And we calculate it out and display it. So, it's showing us, you know, yesterday at close they were looking around 520. You know, my hair is around 52.85 right now. So, but somewhere in this area right here, they calculated out we'd be below
Speaker A
figures out the rest and infers and says, "You know what? Here's your wave sequences that are matching historically." So, your historical volatility is shown as this. And that's why it only puts four on there. It looks at all that data and
Speaker A
call 521 by 9:30. That's what they calculated out to be. That puts us in this purple box. So, 9:30 a.m. they're thinking we're going to open in this box. Now, the flatness of these lines is potential. The flatter the line is, the
Speaker A
here. And instead of stopping here, maybe it goes way down below this win rate. That's very possible. So, the systems learned this.
Speaker A
less potential there is to move into that price area. So, they only create this wave. Only gets created by potential. So, the more potential, the more there is in bins.
Speaker A
somewhere. So here's the purple area I've defined on our trading graph right in here. Find that. Right now the system believes we'll open up there. It I use green or opening price.
Speaker A
Now again, what I did was I masked off where the market is based on splicing, say splicing, which puts us into Friday. So, this is Thursday to Friday transitions we're looking at right here.
Speaker A
we open up and we're bouncing around inside of here. Now with what it knows, it says our past closes have been here, here, this is at 4 p.m. and here.
Speaker A
And why in God's name are there only like a couple of transitions when if I go look at my data, I've got a lot of Friday splice data, but yet over here I only have four things. I have four sinocodial waves. And
Speaker A
So this one's been very Here we've closed more times than not. Here's our opens. One time we did open down. One time opened here and I don't know where the other opens are at, but that's where we opened. So, you know, right now we're
Speaker A
over here, look at all these waves up and down. It's like, what is going on with that?
Speaker A
Man, I felt beat up after last night. Um, so if we opened, say we opened in here somewhere and we're bouncing around in here. More times than not, we've closed right here on the day at 4 p.m. One time up here, one time up
Speaker A
Oh, we just opened. Price is changing on me. Did I accidentally select something different?
Speaker A
knows where we could close. So, we could close up in here. We could break that and then we have a propensity to close down here more.
Speaker A
Went to a concert last night. I was disturbed and really tired.
Speaker A
visually. So price is based on what it can figure out. Price is most likely to stay in this zone.
Speaker A
So, the reason there's only four sinocodial waves is because the system has kind of this neural net built into it, a tree built into it. It's figuring out these four waves are the only ones that qualify based on that information.
Speaker A
the times. We've been hanging out. If we even look at more closely, we've got even a darker one here down to here, which would be not fun to get stuck in this. It would highly channelize us. I mean, that's not very many points. 519
Speaker A
Says, "Great. You know, you've cured Fridays because you want to splice on Fridays. I get that." Then it's like, "Here, here's what I believe it's inferring. We're telling it what kind of data we want to use." And then it
Speaker A
So you can mark those in the graph or not. You know it's 519, 522, 528, 519. Then we show some coloration down to here down to 517. If we crash this 166, you know, went down to this area. So, we're seeing our S-waves um
Speaker A
figures out the rest and infers and says, "You know what? Here's your wave sequences that are matching historically." So, your historical volatility is shown as this. And that's why it only puts four on there. It looks at all that data and
Speaker A
be great, you know, and it's, you know, as we curl around here, it's calls and puts like we see every day.
Speaker A
is like, "This is what is important. This is what you should be looking at." Now, it doesn't mean the system's infallible. It's correct. Possible that it's figured this out and it's way wrong. And here's our green line right
Speaker A
bottom side on the 16th. Right. We're still in our purple opening zone here. Uh Pep, we've zoomed up. We have a like we have a trade of 154. Somebody really got screwed on that one. Probably best not to use
Speaker A
here. And instead of stopping here, maybe it goes way down below this win rate. That's very possible. So, the system's learned this.
Speaker A
we didn't. We opened in the purple. Looks like we opened. Oh, that's at [Music] 9:30. This [Music] 9:30. Yeah, 9:30. It looks like we opened about right at the top of our purple. So our looks like we're computing the right
Speaker A
It's figured all this out, but maybe the market does something outside of what it's figured out and our price action drops outside of what it thinks is the reality of it. So, right now it believes that we open up in here
Speaker A
And again, we show a lot of the playground between 519 and 522 because we have a darker coloration. So 519 holds, you know, 519's kind of comes bottom. Uh the call side over here is where it's going to be at the action.
Speaker A
somewhere. So, here's the purple area I've defined on our trading graph right in here. Find that. Right now the system believes we'll open up there. I use green for opening price.
Speaker A
because we don't have green over here. So, if taking that, the risk is that we stay red here and here.
Speaker A
So, we open up in here somewhere. Then it believes only 16.6% of the time we test back here. And it believes only 16.67% of the time can we get above that. So, that means the rest of the time
Speaker A
mind. If 519's holding, then what happens is we get a we're getting a buy zone in here. So that's 51920 at the bottom. Not sure exactly how deep that is. I'll guesstimate it here.
Speaker A
we open up and we're bouncing around inside of here. Now, with what it knows, it says our past closes have been here, here, this is at 4 p.m., and here.
Speaker A
So let's graze the buy zone. The front run of the buy zone and front run is we don't have green signal line on five and one. So when we do front running like we go in without signal here the expectation is that it will
Speaker A
Here we have a cluster of them. There's looks like at least two damn together.
Speaker A
a long time. Oh, this could lose value here. So, that's a danger on a front run. It's like losing value. Like the trade on the five minute with one minute may not being damaged too much, but a front
Speaker A
So, this one's been very—here we've closed more times than not. Here's our opens. One time we did open down. One time opened here and I don't know where the other opens are at, but that's where we opened. So, you know, right now we're
Speaker A
Now when this um if we can get to the bottom here and maybe we break out too. We don't know. But let's say we did break out here. But anyways, I need to adjust this to match the bottom. Whatever
Speaker A
using implied volatility, these S-waves to figure out this purple zone. So, if we—if we traded regularly—oh, thank you.
Speaker A
More like that. The risk that this does not hold. Our purple doesn't hold. There's a close. So, the risk is we run into this um 5183 or below. Mark a line there.
Speaker A
Man, I felt beat up after last night. So, if we opened, say we opened in here somewhere and we're bouncing around in here. More times than not, we've closed right here on the day at 4 p.m. One time up here, one time up
Speaker A
volatility is saying hey we kind of like to stay in this gray box like to stay in our purple. This purple and gray are supposed to be the same thing. Let me make this purple so it's a little bit
Speaker A
there. That's something to keep in mind. You can pull Spread Monster and then you can see these. You can throw them on the graph or not, you know, and they're just historical. They're a computed out value or it believes based on what it
Speaker A
steroids. And um learn I've I've told it what I wanted to look at. I've told I wanted to look at Thursday splicings. So that'll give me Friday.
Speaker A
knows where we could close. So, we could close up in here. We could break that and then we have a propensity to close down here more.
Speaker A
night and spread monster said, "These are the waves. These are the syosodial waves you need to pay attention to. This is what matters today." It's like screw everything else. I don't care what the other data looks like. I don't care what
Speaker A
So again, these waveforms show where the flatter it is, the less likely we are to get there. Now look at our top, our transitional top here. This coloration, this means price is most likely to stay in this darker colored area
Speaker A
I forget the 51883. I'll mark that. Looks like we 5183 is about right here. 1883.
Speaker A
visually. So, price is based on what it can figure out. Price is most likely to stay in this zone.
Speaker A
a front run that's always the risk. It's like the values established do not hold.
Speaker A
Doesn't mean it has to. We can leave it and get up. We can leave it down here and move lower. So, we do not absolutely have to stay in this zone. However, that darker coloration is where we've been a lot of
Speaker A
We zoomed up through pre-market and then our 9:30 open. We started top of our block down.
Speaker A
the times. We've been hanging out. If we even look more closely, we've got even a darker one here down to here, which would be not fun to get stuck in this. It would highly channelize us. I mean, that's not very many points. 519
Speaker A
NH is a little pricey on that contract, but given where it was at on the fractal graph I uh have it too high of a strike.
Speaker A
to 522 range. So, you know, the other alternative, we can get stuck here. It can get stuck here. Have this small range here on the day. Wouldn't be too fine.
Speaker A
for uh the fancy pants um earning stuff is you know so far it's held that low. We'll see see if our math model holds up. I hit resistance turn and slam down to 516. So see got to get a green. We need a green
Speaker A
So, you can mark those in the graph or not. You know, it's 519, 522, 528, 519. Then we show some coloration down to here, down to 517. If we crash this 166, you know, went down to this area. So, we're seeing our S-waves,
Speaker A
That means that a stop, you know, it goes without saying, a stop would be underneath this because if the model is suggesting, you know, it's low odds to get underneath, it's not impossible. It's just like, you know, there's only 20%
Speaker A
actual data from the option chain mapped against our volatility that Spread Monster thinks that we're going to run today. I mean, to go and calls and then to hit that, of course, that'd be quite wonderful. Going to calls to hit that'd
Speaker A
low because if the model's not holding up, we break down what it's suggesting that happens.
Speaker A
be great, you know, and it's, you know, as we curl around here, it's calls and puts like we see every day.
Speaker A
this low. And today could be the 20% we're not. So it could break down. That's why have to be smart about sort of getting a little bit of green here. Getting a little side exit in the one minute. We'll have to
Speaker A
It's about to open. I have no—so, I use a 522 and I use a 519. Do a 522 up [Music] here. The 519 below.
Speaker A
Here we climb. And on the five minute course, I know sometimes on Fridays it seems like always different, but sometimes we can have some sideways action for a while until we get into afternoon or until data reports.
Speaker A
All right. So, we opened it looks like in that zone. High is about to top side. We're using 519 bottom side on the 16th. Right. We're still in our purple opening zone here.
Speaker A
it. Able to afford some top ramen maybe. So getting some green one minute. How much conviction? Just likes sloppy here.
Speaker A
Pep, we've zoomed up. We have a like we have a trade of 154. Somebody really got screwed on that one. Probably best not to use ask.
Topics:QQQSpread Monstermarket open analysisvolatility wavessinusoidal wavesoption chain datahistorical volatilitymarket makersprice predictionneural net trading
