Speaker A
So, good afternoon, everybody. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos.
Elon Musk discusses AI, robotics, space, and sustainable technology, envisioning a future of abundance and multi-planetary civilization.
Key Takeaways
- AI and robotics will drive a future of amazing abundance for all humanity.
- Making life multi-planetary is crucial to ensure the survival of consciousness.
- Sustainable technology and clean energy are vital for long-term prosperity.
- Humanoid robots will become widespread, helping with everyday tasks and caregiving.
- Extending human lifespan and possibly reversing aging are likely achievable goals.
What the video covers
- Elon Musk speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos about technology and the future.
- He emphasizes the importance of AI, robotics, energy, and space exploration in advancing civilization.
- SpaceX aims to make life multi-planetary to preserve consciousness beyond Earth.
- Tesla focuses on sustainable technology and creating abundance through robotics and AI.
- Musk warns about the risks of AI but is optimistic about its potential to solve global poverty.
- He predicts a future where humanoid robots saturate human needs, creating unprecedented economic expansion.
- Robots could assist with caregiving, especially for the elderly, improving quality of life.
- Musk discusses the possibility of reversing aging and extending human lifespan.
- He highlights the need for engineering discipline, scale, and execution to realize these technologies.
- The conversation includes reflections on the rarity of life and the importance of preserving consciousness.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Context at Davos
- 01:38Investment and Growth with Tesla and BlackRock
- 02:55Technology Focus: AI, Robotics, Space, Energy
- 04:26SpaceX and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life
- 06:14Risks and Opportunities of AI and Robotics
- 07:34Future Economic Expansion Through Robotics
- 09:12Robots in Caregiving and Daily Life
- 10:20Discussion on Aging and Lifespan Extension
- 11:57AI Growth, Energy, and Space Technology
- 20:15Vision for the Future and Space Exploration
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Hopefully, everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully, everybody agrees. There are some conversations that we may disagree on. There's many conversations we may have agreed on, but through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today,
Speaker A
the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings, and also resolution. So, it's an important component of who we are and what we are, and I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to
Speaker A
be here to see all of you. So, thank you, Elon. You're most welcome. I heard about the formation of the peace summit, and I was like, is that P-I-E-C?
Speaker A
[laughter] You know, a little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela. [laughter] We got one.
Speaker A
All we want is peace. Okay, [laughter] I want to, as I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock since we went public.
Speaker A
The compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders was 21%. Since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%.
Speaker A
This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with your countries.
Speaker A
Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon when Tesla went public, and how much return with all of the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So, a spectacular return. There's very few
Speaker A
companies—well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So, congratulations.
Speaker A
Oh, thank you. Measurement? Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla, and that's the reason.
Speaker A
So, I want to get into the dirt, the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities.
Speaker A
I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, execution.
Speaker A
And few people, if that, anyone has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head-on. Not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies, Elon, and that's why I thought it was
Speaker A
important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So, you're presently building on AI, on robotics, on space, on energy, all at the same time.
Speaker A
When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?
Speaker A
Well, they're all very difficult technology challenges, but the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization, like basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future.
Speaker A
And to expand consciousness beyond Earth. So, if you take SpaceX, for example, that SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, to the moon, to Mars,
Speaker A
eventually to other star systems. And I know I think we should always view consciousness, life as we know it, as precarious and delicate.
Speaker A
Because to the best of our knowledge, we don't know if life exists anywhere else. You know, I'm often asked, are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one, but
Speaker A
or you're from the future. They don't believe me. Okay.
Speaker A
But I think if anyone would know if there were aliens among us, it would be me.
Speaker A
And we have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So, I'm like, I don't know. The bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely
Speaker A
rare, and it might only be us. And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, because effectively, the way
Speaker A
I view it is the image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out.
Speaker A
And that's why it's important to make life multi-planetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or a man-made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Tesla is obviously about sustainable
Speaker A
technology and also at this point we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance.
Speaker A
So, with robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say, you know, people often talk about solving global poverty, or essentially how do we give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics.
Speaker A
Which doesn't mean that it is without its issues. I mean, we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics.
Speaker A
We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie, you know, Terminator.
Speaker A
Is it? He's great, great movies. I love his movies, but we don't want to be in Terminator, obviously.
Speaker A
But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy, an expansion in the global
Speaker A
economy that is truly beyond all precedent. Elon, can that expansion be broad?
Speaker A
Yes. Or is it narrow? And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?
Speaker A
Yeah, I mean, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. Right?
Speaker A
And actually my prediction is in the benign scenario of the future, that the robots will actually make so many robots and AI that they will actually saturate all human needs. I mean, you won't be able to even think of something
Speaker A
to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like, there will be such an abundance of goods and services because my prediction is that there will be more robots than people. So,
Speaker A
But how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?
Speaker A
Yeah, I mean, you know, nothing's perfect, you know, but I mean, it is a necessary thing. Like you can't have both. You can't have
Speaker A
work that has to be done, and amazing abundance for all. Because if it's work that has to be done, then only some people can do it, then
Speaker A
you can't have abundance. Then it's narrow. It's narrow. Exactly. So, but if you have billions of humanoid robots, and I think there will be, I think everyone on Earth is going to have one, and going to want
Speaker A
one. Because who wouldn't want a robot to, you know, assuming it's very safe, watch over your kids, take care of your pets. If you have elderly parents,
Speaker A
a lot of friends of mine said they have elderly parents, and it's very difficult to take care of them. Yeah, it's expensive, and there just aren't enough people to take care of the old people. Right?
Speaker A
So, if you had a robot that could take care of and protect elderly parents, I think that would be great.
Speaker A
That would be an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So, I mean, overall I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance,
Speaker A
which is very cool. And definitely we are in the most interesting time in history.
Speaker A
I think there's more interesting times in history. But can we, you and I, reverse aging in this new history, or are we going to see it?
Speaker A
I haven't put much time into the aging stuff. I do think it is a very solvable problem.
Speaker A
Like, you can do, I, when we find...
Speaker A
Um so, why is that? It it it that that means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock.
Speaker A
That is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. Um and uh uh you know, the there is some benefit to death, by the way.
Speaker A
There's there's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan uh because if you if you have if people do live forever for very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of of things
Speaker A
just getting kind of locked in place. Um and uh Yeah, you know, it it it it just may become um stultifying, just not uh lack lack vibrancy.
Speaker A
Um but but that that's said, do I think we'll figure out ways to extend life and um and maybe even reverse aging, I think that's highly likely.
Speaker A
I'm looking forward to that. Yeah. So um the future that you talk about, the AI models, autonomous machines, rockets, depends on massive increases in compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale.
Speaker A
What are the bottlenecks to to get there? And that once again, with all that expenditures, again, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow?
Speaker A
Um [clears throat] I I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because uh AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can.
Speaker A
And the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's is plummeting every year.
Speaker A
I mean, almost the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month-to-month basis. There's open there's open models now everywhere, you know? Yes, very there's open models.
Speaker A
And the open models only lag they may be a year behind the private the sort of closed models.
Speaker A
Um so, so, I I think you the the AI companies will seek as as many customers as possible, which means they'll seek they'll provide AI to the world.
Speaker A
But the cost of getting to there, the compute, the chips, um the fab, um the powering, that to me, what what are the what are the bottle You know, those are huge in The limiting factor Yeah, I think the
Speaker A
limiting factor for um AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power. It's just Right. [clears throat] It's energy.
Speaker A
Yeah, yeah. Um I mean, we're we're we're seeing the the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is uh negligible.
Speaker A
3% 4% a year. Yeah. Max. Yeah. It's clear that we're we're we're we're very soon, maybe even later this year, uh we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on.
Speaker A
Except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak. Uh actually, solar is the biggest thing in in China. So, China's I believe China's production capacity on solar is 1,500 gigawatts a year, um and
Speaker A
they're deploying over uh 1,000 gigawatts a year of of solar. Um Now, you know, for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly I don't know, four or five.
Speaker A
Uh call call it that's around uh 250 gigawatts of steady-state power um paired with batteries.
Speaker A
Um and that that's a very big number. That's half of the average power usage in the US. So, US US power uh usage on average is is 500 gigawatts. Uh China just in solar, just like just in in in in solar that that
Speaker A
can provide steady-state power uh and batteries can do half of the US electricity output per year, just with solar. Solar is by far it the the the biggest source of of of energy. Um and actually, when you look
Speaker A
beyond or even even even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth, uh the the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. Um so, the the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system.
Speaker A
Jupiter is about 0.1% and everything else is miscellaneous. Um now, even if you were to uh burn Jupiter in a in a thermonuclear reactor, uh the sun the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% cuz
Speaker A
Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system, the and and burned three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%.
Speaker A
So, it's really all about [clears throat] the sun. Um and that's that's why uh one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX uh within a few years is launching um solar-powered AI satellites.
Speaker A
Um because the space is really the source of immense power. And then you don't need to take up any room on Earth.
Speaker A
Uh there's so much room in space. And you can scale to uh enormous uh I mean, you can you can scale to uh I think ultimately hundreds hundreds of terawatts a year.
Speaker A
But we you and I have had these conversations before, but why don't you tell the audience, what would it take for the United States and what type of geography would it take to have that solar field to electrify the
Speaker A
United States? And And then let me ask a question, why aren't we doing it?
Speaker A
Yeah, so I mean, I I guess rough way to think about it is um 100 miles by 100 miles, I'll call it I don't know, 160 km by 160 km of of [clears throat] solar is enough to power the entire United States.
Speaker A
So, you know, 100 100 mi mi by 100 mi area is is I mean, you could take basically a small corner of Utah Nevada.
Speaker A
Nevada, New Mexico. [clears throat] Obviously, wouldn't want it all in one place but I'm you can it's it's it is a very small percentage of the area of of the US to generate all of the electricity that the
Speaker A
US uses. Um and the same is true actually, I mean, for for Europe, you could take a small you could take uh uh relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe needs. So,
Speaker A
why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States?
Speaker A
Uh well, there there is as it is in China. Well, unfortunately, in in the US, the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high [clears throat] um and that makes the economics of deploying solar uh uh so, artificially high because China
Speaker A
makes almost all the solar. Um and uh and the tech that What would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially? If it's that scale.
Speaker A
Yeah, I I I think I think uh Well, I can tell you what what we're going to do in SpaceX and Tesla was is we're we're building up um large-scale solar. Right. So, the the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately
Speaker A
are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US.
Speaker A
Of manufactured solar power. Um and um that'll probably take us I don't know, about 3 years, something.
Speaker A
But this that's these are pretty big numbers. Mhm. Um and um you know, I'd encourage others to do the same to do the same. Um We obviously don't control the you know, your US tariff policy.
Speaker A
Mhm. Uh but for for for for other countries, uh I would you know, that there's China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost and I think uh it would be worth uh doing large-scale solar.
Speaker A
So, [clears throat] I know you are you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots.
Speaker A
Yeah. Um How quickly you you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be uh create that that abundance that
Speaker A
you talked about? [clears throat] Well, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think uh we we we do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory.
Speaker A
Um We expect it probably later this year. By the end of this year, I think they'll be doing um more more complex tasks.
Speaker A
Um and and but still be deployed in an industrial environment. [clears throat] And uh and probably sometime next year, I'd say that by the by the end of next year, I I think uh we'll be selling humanoid robots uh to
Speaker A
the public. Um but that's when we are confident that the it's very high reliability, very high safety um and the range of functionality is uh is is also very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like.
Speaker A
[clears throat] You're already seeing that in Tesla cars. This the software changes that you're doing and then what is it? Every quarter now a software change that upgrades the the ability of the robot within the car?
Speaker A
Uh yes, uh the Tesla full self-driving software, we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently [clears throat] some of the insurance companies have said that uh it is actually so safe uh when when Tesla
Speaker A
full self-driving so safe that uh they're they're offering uh customers half-price insurance if they if they use Tesla full self-driving in the car. And that could be monitored by the insurance company.
Speaker A
Can they is that part of the agreement then? Yeah. Um I I think I think uh self-driving [clears throat] car is is essentially a solved problem at this point. Right. Um at at Tes- Tesla's rolled out uh it's a robotaxi service in a few cities
Speaker A
and Right. will uh I be very very widespread by the end of this year within the US.
Speaker A
And then we we we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month. Really that quickly? Yeah. And then [clears throat] uh maybe a similar timing timing for China, hopefully.
Speaker A
I want to move to space cuz historically space has very capital intensive it it historically been done by governments.
Speaker A
Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model. Um but we've seen it slow to scale and now we're starting to see it ramping up in what you're doing and other things.
Speaker A
Um talk to us about the reason you know the automation and AI how it's changing the economics in building uh and preparing for us in operating in space.
Speaker A
Uh sure. Um Well, [clears throat] the key breakthrough that tells that that's the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability.
Speaker A
[clears throat] Um so no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. Um we've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We've We've now landed the
Speaker A
boost stage over 500 times. Um but uh we we don't We have to uh throw away the upper stage. The upper stage just burns up on reentry for Falcon 9. So and that that the cost of that is equivalent to a small to
Speaker A
medium-size jet. So um but with with Starship, which is a giant rocket, it's the largest flying machine ever made. That's the rocket that you're using for the idea of going to Mars, right?
Speaker A
Yeah, Mars and the moon um as well as for uh high-volume satellite stuff. So Starship um hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will be um a profound in- invention uh because uh the cost of access to space will drop
Speaker A
by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. Um Right. It's It's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect that between say a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft.
Speaker A
Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight.
Speaker A
Um but if you only have to refuel, uh then it's the cost of the fuel.
Speaker A
And so that's really the uh the the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space uh we think uh below the cost of uh um of freight on aircraft.
Speaker A
Uh so you know, under under $100 a a pound type of thing easily. Um so it it it it makes uh [clears throat] putting large satellites into into space very low very very cheap.
Speaker A
Um and then when you have solar in space, you you get uh five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that than solar on the ground.
Speaker A
Because it's it's always sunny and cold and It Yeah, it's it's it's Well, it's always sunny, so you you don't have a day-night cycle or seasonality or weather. Um and you get about 30% more power in space uh because uh
Speaker A
you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power. Right. The The net effect is solar is five times more uh the any given solar panel will do five times more uh energy in space than on the ground. Is there any capacity in
Speaker A
doing that and and then taking that power and bringing it back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that or or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building um the AI data centers in the space.
Speaker A
I I think I think the the case is it's it's a no-brainer for building uh AI solar-powered AI data centers in space um cuz as you mentioned, it's it's also very cold in space. If you're if you're if you're in the shadow, uh then it's
Speaker A
it's very cold in space. It's 3° Kelvin. So you just have your solar panels facing the sun and then uh a radiator that's like point like pointed away from the sun.
Speaker A
Um so it has no sun incidence and then it's and then it's just cooling it's a very efficient cooling system.
Speaker A
So uh net net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that and that'll be true within 2 years, maybe three three at the latest. Wow.
Speaker A
[clears throat] So looking 10 or 20 years out, um what would How would you describe success with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Is that Can you Are you more certain what's going to happen in the next 3 years or
Speaker A
or 5 or 10? I don't know what what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, I think we [clears throat] we're we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the
Speaker A
end of this year um and and I would say no later than next year. Wow.
Speaker A
Um and then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it 5 years from now, uh AI will be smarter than [clears throat] uh all of humanity collectively.
Speaker A
We only have a number of minutes left, but I want I want to humanize you for a second.
Speaker A
So there's no speculation that you're able peace. Right. Right. I want to [laughter] I I mean I would frame this question by you are the most successful entrepreneur, industrialist in the 21st century, maybe beyond.
Speaker A
Um I want to So I want to really get this, you know, what inspired you? Who's inspired you?
Speaker A
What was the foundation of of your curiosity? And and importantly, what was the what was the Was there a aha moment, epiphany at any time in your life and career?
Speaker A
Well um I mean as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction sci-fi fantasy books. Yeah, we talked about it.
Speaker A
Um and uh comic books. Uh and I always liked technology. Uh I didn't expect to be where I am today. It seems incredibly implausible. Um but uh yeah, I was I was I was inspired by reading about books about the future
Speaker A
about science fiction and uh and I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever. At some point turn science fiction to science fact.
Speaker A
Um and uh you know, we want to have like Starfleet [clears throat] and Star Star Trek really for for real.
Speaker A
Like where where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space going to other planets, traveling to other star systems, going places where no one has ever gone before.
Speaker A
up to go back to New York. You know, I I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying.
Speaker A
Yeah. Um You know, talking about Star Trek. No, I guess my my essential I what I would call the phil- philosophy philosophy of curiosity, I'm I'd like to understand um the meaning of life, you know, the it is the standard model of Is the
Speaker A
standard model of physics correct Mhm. regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence, and the end of the universe. Um What what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? Um And AI will help us with these things.
Speaker A
Um So I'm just trying to understand how how do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are.
Speaker A
Um and if if we've got if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, uh we may find we may encounter aliens and or we may find many long-dead alien civilizations.
Speaker A
But I I I'm just I just I just want to know what's going on. I'm curious about the the universe and um that's my philosophy.
Speaker A
Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime? Uh yeah. I mean I would say like I you know, I I there That's a long commitment.
Speaker A
I've been asked but Isn't that 3 years each way? Uh it's uh 6 months. 6 months? That's all it is? Yeah, 6 months, but the planets only align every every 2 years.
Speaker A
Okay. So, [clears throat] uh Yeah, I've been asked a few times like do I want to you know, die on Mars, and I'm like, "Yes, but just not on impact." [laughter] That's a good That's a good answer.
Speaker A
Anyway, uh we're out of time. I Hopefully, everybody enjoyed this. Um I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk.
Speaker A
I can tell you he's a great friend, and I constantly learn so much from him.
Speaker A
Um and I'm totally inspired by what he's what he has done. I've been inspired who he is, and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future.
Speaker A
And I don't think it's such a bad future, and I agree with his optimism.
Speaker A
So, Elon, thank you. Any last words? Uh um um Well, I think generally I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. Good.
Speaker A
Um and and and generally, I think for quality of life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist and right.
Speaker A
On that note, [applause] [applause] Join our global community of English learners, absolutely free. Download video transcripts, listen offline, start our beginner course, and join live classes with certified teachers. Access over 1,000 resources to improve your English faster.
Speaker A
Everything's in one place, community.englishspeeches.ca. Let's speak English together.
Topics:Elon MuskAIroboticsSpaceXTeslasustainable technologyfuture abundancemulti-planetary lifeWorld Economic ForumDavos
