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Waspada! El Nino Terus Menguat, Puncaknya Diprediksi Desember 2026 | OneNews Update

WMO forecasts El Niño peak in December 2026, with record sea temperatures impacting global weather and increasing drought and flood risks.

Key Takeaways

  • El Niño will peak in December 2026 with record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
  • Global temperatures are likely to be above average, increasing risks of droughts and floods worldwide.
  • The forecast is based on a consensus from multiple international research centers using comprehensive real-time data.
  • Other climate drivers like the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic sea temperatures also influence seasonal weather patterns.
  • This update provides critical information for anticipating climate impacts on economies, ecosystems, and communities.

What the video covers

  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a global seasonal climate update for October to December 2026.
  • El Niño is expected to peak in December 2026, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific reaching record highs.
  • This strengthening El Niño will influence global weather patterns, affecting economies, ecosystems, and communities worldwide.
  • Temperatures are predicted to be above average globally, with altered precipitation patterns increasing drought and flood risks.
  • The update includes analysis of large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
  • The forecast is a consensus from 13 WMO national and international research centers using real-time data from ocean buoys, satellites, and radiosondes.
  • The Niño 3.4 index rose sharply from +1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5°C above normal in August 2026.
  • A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to peak in October 2026, influencing rainfall around the Indian Ocean region.
  • Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are also forecasted to remain above average during this period.
  • The report complements the WMO El Niño/La Niña update published quarterly.

Chapters

  1. 00:00Introduction and WMO Climate Update
  2. 01:05El Niño Peak and Sea Surface Temperature Rise
  3. 02:04Impact of El Niño on Global Temperatures
  4. 02:38Changes in Precipitation and Climate Drivers
  5. 03:26Consensus Forecast from International Research Centers
  6. 04:28Niño 3.4 Index and Temperature Anomalies
  7. 05:31Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Influence
  8. 07:13Seasonal Outlook for Indian Ocean and Atlantic Basin

Answers

Questions about this video

When is the peak of El Niño expected according to the WMO forecast?

The peak of El Niño is expected to occur in December 2026, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific reaching record highs.

What are the expected global impacts of the strengthening El Niño?

El Niño is likely to cause above-average temperatures worldwide and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in various regions.

What data sources and organizations contribute to the WMO climate forecast?

The forecast is a consensus from 13 WMO national and international research centers, using real-time data from ocean buoys, satellites, and radiosondes coordinated by the WMO.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:20
Speaker A
The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, has published a global seasonal climate update presenting temperature and precipitation forecasts for the October to December period. The peak of El Niño is expected to occur in December 2026. During the period of
01:05
Speaker A
October, November, and December 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to rise to record highs. This reflects the strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon, which will influence weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems, and communities worldwide.
02:04
Speaker A
Based on the WMO press release regarding the monthly global seasonal climate update, El Niño will continue to strengthen toward its peak, expected in December. This phenomenon is very likely to cause temperatures across most of the world to be above average
02:38
Speaker A
and alter precipitation patterns, thereby increasing the risk of droughts and floods in various regions. The global seasonal climate update provides reliable information on the drivers of large-scale climate factors. These factors include the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, the Indian Ocean
03:26
Speaker A
Dipole, or IOD, and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, all of which influence seasonal temperature and rainfall. This report also complements the WMO El Niño/La Niña update, which is published every three months. That near-absolute certainty does not come from just one single model. It is a
04:28
Speaker A
consensus from 13 WMO national and international research centers, ranging from Washington to Tokyo and London, built on real-time data exchanges from ocean buoys, satellites, and radiosondes coordinated by the WMO. Sea surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,
05:02
Speaker A
the heart of the El Niño region, are measured using the widely used Niño 3.4 index. This index was recorded to have risen sharply from an average of +1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June 2026 to +2.5 degrees Celsius above
05:31
Speaker A
normal last August. On the other hand, other ocean basins are also contributing to this seasonal climate outlook. Meanwhile, there is a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean,
06:30
Speaker A
a climate pattern that can significantly influence rainfall around the Indian Ocean. It is expected to reach its peak
07:13
Speaker A
in October and then slowly decline. Seasonal anomalies for October to December are projected to be around +0.5 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, according to the global seasonal climate update report, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are also expected to remain above
Topics:El NiñoWMOclimate updateseasonal forecastsea surface temperatureNiño 3.4 indexIndian Ocean Dipoleglobal warmingweather patternsdrought and flood risk

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