Speaker A
The Chinese Communist Party is currently holding its 20th Fifth Plenary Session, and this session is of vital importance to Taiwan.
Analysis of Chinese military purges under Xi Jinping: 32 generals officially fallen, 25 missing, Military Commission seats vacant, and implications for Taiwan and a possible 2027 invasion.
Key Takeaways
- Five vacant Central Military Commission seats are presented as a key indicator of China's near-term military readiness and invasion risk.
- Xi's ongoing purges, including 32 officially fallen generals and 25 missing, are interpreted as signs of political insecurity and a disrupted command chain.
- The commentary argues anti-corruption has been used primarily as a political tool rather than a genuine clean-up effort.
- The analysis suggests the 2027 invasion threat may be lower than commonly assumed, though this is the commentator's opinion rather than established fact.
What the video covers
- The CCP's 20th Fifth Plenary Session is seen as crucial for Taiwan, mainly because five of seven Central Military Commission seats remain vacant.
- The host argues that whether the Military Commission is filled directly affects the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan around 2027, as cited by former INDOPACOM commander Davidson.
- Xi's repeated call for 'comprehensive strict party governance' after 15 years in power is interpreted as evidence he has not fully consolidated control of the party.
- A cross-university statement calling for adherence to the 10-year term limit is seen as implicitly targeting Xi's attempt to extend his rule.
- Professor Ming Chu-cheng says anti-corruption campaigns since 2013 were largely vehicles for political struggle and factional power grabs.
- Since the 20th Party Congress, over 100 provincial-level and ministerial-level civil officials have reportedly been purged.
- Military purges are described as far more severe: 32 generals officially announced as fallen and 25 more missing from public view, totaling 57.
- The Rocket Force has seen four consecutive commanders removed, which the speaker interprets as a collapse of the force's strike capability.
- Many full-general posts are reportedly filled by lieutenant generals in acting roles, and some promotions are described as questionable or rapid.
- The speaker argues that the purges reflect a broken command chain and weakened readiness, reducing the near-term probability of invasion.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction: Fifth Plenary Session and Taiwan's Stakes
- 02:00Military Commission Vacancies and the 2027 Invasion Question
- 03:20Xi's 'Strict Party Governance' and Term-Limit Debate
- 05:00Anti-Corruption Campaign as Political Struggle
- 05:30Scale of Purges: 32 Fallen and 25 Missing Generals
- 07:30Rocket Force Collapse and Command Chain Breakdown
- 13:20Acting Appointments, Promotions, and Military Quality
- 21:40Implications for Taiwan and Closing Remarks
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Because this Fifth Plenary Session needs to confirm whether the long-vacant Military Commission member positions will be filled; if they still aren't filled by now, didn't people say before ?
Speaker A
That China might invade Taiwan in 2027. If you still can't even fill the vacant positions on your Military Commission, then the probability of you invading Taiwan in 2027 is extremely low.
Speaker A
But if you do fill those five Military Commission seats, the experience, qualifications, and the level of preparation those members have for an invasion—if you aren't fully prepared, the probability of an invasion will naturally decrease accordingly.
Speaker A
So, is 2027 a critical moment for Taiwan ? Is it true, as former INDOPACOM commander Davidson said, that 2027 is the most likely time for China to invade Taiwan? If they don't invade in 2027, then the possibility of an invasion will
Speaker A
become very low. Is there any way they can invade in 2027, or is it even possible? Who exactly gets appointed to the Military Commission during this year’s Fifth Plenary Session is a crucial indicator.
Speaker A
Furthermore, many curious things have emerged during the Fifth Plenary Session . First, during the meeting, Xi Jinping again expressed the need for " comprehensive strict party governance." This is very interesting; didn't you want "comprehensive strict party governance" when you first took office?
Speaker A
How is it that after all this time— after you’ve been at it for 15 years— you still need "comprehensive strict party governance"? Does this mean you still haven't been able to fully control the Chinese Communist Party?
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What else is there that makes you worried? And are these worries what's preventing you from filling these member positions during this Fifth Plenary Session?
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Second, we have seen a latest report stating that within the People's Republic of China, there was a cross-university statement that directly called for maintaining past precedents and systems, meaning that your term limit is 10 years and cannot be extended
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. This is clearly aimed at Xi Jinping, because Xi Jinping now wants to break the rules and continue for another five years.
Speaker A
What does this move actually represent? Who was the mastermind behind this article? Alright, today we have specifically invited Professor Ming Chu-cheng, an honorary professor at National Taiwan University who is very familiar with this topic, to chat with us. Professor Ming, hello.
Speaker A
Hello Baosheng, and hello to all our viewers. Professor Hao, we just mentioned that this Fifth Plenary Session is crucial for us. In the past, the Fifth Plenary Session usually covered the next five-year economic plan , but they moved it to the Fourth.
Speaker A
What everyone is concerned about this year is the Military Commission, because five out of the seven seats are currently vacant.
Speaker A
Is whether or not these five vacancies are filled really that critical for Taiwan? Also, just now you mentioned his claim that "I want to build a force capable of fighting, one that can be called upon and win immediately."
Speaker A
Is he actually doing it? If we look back at the past few years—he actually took power in 2012.
Speaker A
Yes. He took power at the 18th Party Congress . Then, after taking office in November 2012, there wasn't anything particularly earth-shattering.
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In 2013, the following year, he appointed Wang Qishan to head the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
Speaker A
We were quite surprised at the time because, logically, Wang Qishan was more familiar with foreign trade and finance .
Speaker A
You would expect him to be a Vice Premier or something similar, or even Premier, though he later chose someone else.
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Anyway, that’s not the main point. The point is that after selecting Wang Qishan for the Discipline Inspection Commission, he really acted with thunderous speed, just as we predicted, starting an anti-corruption campaign.
Speaker A
But we believed at the time that his anti-corruption drive wasn't really about anti-corruption; it was using the name of anti-corruption to carry out political struggles and factional power grabs.
Speaker A
That’s what happened, and the subsequent developments were far more brutal than we had imagined.
Speaker A
In other words, just as you mentioned earlier about "starting from scratch," why do you say that after more than a decade of governance, we still need to start over?
Speaker A
We need to start over, so if we break it down step by step, it will become clearer.
Speaker A
However, we notice—and you just mentioned the military—that during this period, I won't go back too far, I'll keep it short: the 21st Party Congress is next year.
Speaker A
Mm-hmm. And three or four years ago, the 20th Party Congress was held. From the 20th Congress until now, civil officials have been purged—I mean high-level civil officials, which means provincial or ministerial level and above, provincial governors, deputy governors, ministers, and deputy
Speaker A
ministers—about over 100 such high-ranking officials have been purged . Provincial level, 100? Yes, over 100 officials. And the military situation is even more terrifying, even more terrifying.
Speaker A
I did a rough count in the military. I won't count below the rank of Lieutenant General; I'm only counting Generals, because honestly, the provincial-level records are truly troublesome.
Speaker A
So far, it has been about three to four years. That is, from after the 20th National Congress until now.
Speaker A
Just the number of generals officially announced as having fallen is 32. 32 people. 32 people, and 25 others have disappeared from public view for a long time.
Speaker A
So I add them up to 57. In other words, in these three-plus years, we've seen 57 CCP generals taken down.
Speaker A
Yes. I have made a rather detailed classification of this. There are so many categories that I can't memorize them; I have to read them , it's really too troublesome.
Speaker A
Because after you all hear me finish reading, you'll have a better concept, of roughly to what extent they've been purged and what the shortages are, then we can keep going.
Speaker A
Okay, first, we chose the confirmed fallen, which is 32 people. Within the Central Military Commission, two vice chairmen have fallen. The Defense Minister fell, the Chief of Staff fell, and the Director of the Political Work Department fell—five people.
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Then within this military commission structure, the deputy director of the Political Work Department fell.
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The Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission fell. The deputy director of the Joint Operations Command Center fell.
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The Minister of the Equipment Development Department fell, the Minister of the Logistic Support Department fell; this is at the central level okay.
Speaker A
Now for the various branches, two Army Commanders fell. Two Army Political Commissars fell, one Navy Commander fell, and two Navy Political Commissars fell. One Air Force Commander fell, and two Air Force Political Commissars fell. The Rocket Force Commander—12 people in total were
Speaker A
taken down. The entire Rocket Force is gone, The Rocket Force collapsed; theoretically, if they were to wage war against Taiwan, their first missile would hit Okinawa.
Speaker A
Yes. To strike the Ryukyu islands, Japan, and the U.S. military bases. Only after hitting those places would they turn back to target Taiwan. So, four consecutive Rocket Force Commanders were taken down. Of course, I made a prediction at that time.
Speaker A
When the third one fell, before the fourth one did, I said they would definitely launch a missile in these next few days.
Speaker A
Then the host asked me, why? To prove to the military and the world that the Rocket Force can still fight, and that they still have functional missiles.
Speaker A
And then the fourth person was taken down. Okay. That covers the branches; now let's talk about the corps and theater commands.
Speaker A
Mm. The first is that one People's Armed Police commander was taken down. The Armed Police all fell.
Speaker A
One Armed Police Political Commissar was taken down. Everyone has had a wrong impression, because they call it "Armed Police," thinking they are police, but they aren't. In Chinese history, what should they be called? A regional garrison force.
Speaker A
The armed police forces and regular troops—the armed police are slightly stronger than local forces, so their status is very high.
Speaker A
Everyone keeps thinking it's the police , just police; I say it's not the Armed Police. The Armed Police have been military from start to finish. Back when Jiang Zemin was downsizing the military , they were just reassigned to the Armed
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Police. They aren't civilian police; they really are military. If you pay close attention, the commander of the Armed Police always mobilizes alongside the People's Liberation Army, not alongside the police.
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They follow the military; they are within the military system. Because they are in the military system , they are fundamentally the military.
Speaker A
Usually, when you look at how they address them, the Armed Police are called soldiers. Public security officers are called police.
Speaker A
Oh, they are called soldiers. The terminology is different, so they are military, with one Armed Police commander and one political commissar.
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There was one commander of the Strategic Support Force, and then the entire Strategic Support Force was dismantled— dismantled. Then it was split into three , one of which is called the Information Support Force, and that political commissar was taken down. Then the
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Eastern Theater Command commander was taken down, the Western Theater Command commander was taken down, a political commissar was taken down, and the National Defense University political commissar, Liu Yazhou, was taken down.
Speaker A
Liu Yazhou was too. Yes. So, based on my statistics after the split, we can now confirm about 32 generals—and I mean three-star generals —who have officially been announced as having fallen or been arrested.
Speaker A
Yes. Three-star generals, we are only talking about three-star generals. But if I say I replace these people today...Does that really affect Xi Jinping's ability to command the military? That is to say, this military's so-called combat capability. Some might say, "If I
Speaker A
replace these people, I'm bringing in a younger group who are more loyal to me and have more combat experience; isn't that the case?" Well, let me give you an example: He Weidong.
Speaker A
He Weidong, a few years ago, was transferred from being the Eastern Theater Command commander—a general—to the Central Military Commission, and with one move, he was promoted to Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, effectively jumping ahead several ranks out of nowhere.
Speaker A
Even though both are generals, your seniority and your position are different. His transfer put him above his old superior, Miao Hua. So, right, he became the Vice Chairman of the CCP Military Commission. At the time, major newspapers and media in Taiwan said, "
Speaker A
Wow, look, the Eastern Theater Command commander just moved right up to the Military Commission." Regarding his Central Military Commission, the CCP's official propaganda claims that He Weidong made many great reforms while in the Eastern Theater Command, improved the troops significantly, and is highly
Speaker A
confident about attacking Taiwan— they’re praising him to the skies. They say he's an unparalleled military genius who must be promoted out of turn, pulling him from the Eastern Theater Command to become Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Many
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Taiwanese media outlets are terrified, saying, "Look, they’re about to attack Taiwan, they’ve even replaced their top brass, so Taiwan is in danger." I’d say , not necessarily. I think, right, this kind of extraordinary appointment might have other considerations. Of course,
Speaker A
the Eastern Theater Command is meant to deal with Taiwan, we all know that, but while we should prepare for the worst, there's no need to scare ourselves.
Speaker A
Mm. Okay, so now they attack Taiwan. If they attack Taiwan, it’ll likely take about three years to fall. If this so-called "unparalleled genius" is someone Xi Jinping brought in to command the Taiwan invasion, wouldn't the commanders underneath him lose the will
Speaker A
to fight? That would be it. That would be it. So, regarding what you just said about whether the new person has more combat experience—I'm sorry, none of these people have actual combat experience. The person who really has combat experience is named Zhang Youxia
Speaker A
. Zhang Youxia. Ah, Zhang Youxia is already in prison now. Mm. So, you ask if it will be "more" of something—I dare not say.
Speaker A
I gave an example last time, saying Brother Bao was also in the Central Committee, and then they wiped out all their generals.
Speaker A
General Secretary Xi, General Secretary Xi comes to find you. "Uh, Brother Bao, you've done well in the Eastern Theater Command, only two stars, it’s a pity.
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You'll get promoted tomorrow, then you're transferred to the Central Military Commission as Vice Chairman." What for?
Speaker A
You look and see that 32 have fallen before you, 25 have gone missing, and now they're promoting me? My peers, my subordinates, my former superiors have all been finished off, and now it’s my turn to go up.
Speaker A
Right. So, am I going up there to actually command the military in war, or am I going there to fill a hole? You would think that, wouldn't you? So.
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Also, when we were in the military, remember we were taught the "Three Trusts"? We were training at the service school at the time.
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The three trusts are: you must trust your superiors, you must have the trust of your subordinates, and you must have confidence in yourself; you have to believe in your superiors.
Speaker A
But then, if I said this in the military today—trust is a very important thing in the military. Yes.
Speaker A
If that's the case, for Xi Jinping right now, it's no longer a question of whether or not you can command the troops; it's a question of having already destroyed the basic foundation of trust.
Speaker A
Exactly. Just think about it, I'm in the Rocket Force, and what am I supposed to be doing?
Speaker A
Today they took away the first commander , Wei Fenghe, and I can understand that , but who was the second one they took?
Speaker A
The third one was taken, the fourth one was taken. My four former commanders, plus two former commissars, were all corrupt.
Speaker A
Right. So, do I feel my Rocket Force is reliable? The high-ranking officers you just mentioned, they were so corrupt, to such an extent, and they all got arrested.
Speaker A
And it wasn't just corruption; some were even two-faced. They were two-faced; just yesterday they were telling me about the "Two Upholds" and "Two Establishments," saying we must firmly support the Party Central Committee with General Secretary Xi at the core, and
Speaker A
then today they got arrested. Just yesterday they were speaking so decisively, and today, they were taken away.
Speaker A
Can I trust anyone? And you say catching the Rocket Force is one thing, but they took five out of seven from the Central Military Commission.
Speaker A
Either they were corrupt or two-faced, or they were doing something else. Who on earth can I still trust?
Speaker A
If I were doing a show with Baojie yesterday and he got arrested today, could I still trust him?
Speaker A
Right, we were discussing war plans and other matters together, we've known each other for decades, and then he gets arrested.
Speaker A
Hmm. I clearly know him, and yes, he was corrupt and I was corrupt too, because if I weren't, I wouldn't be able to sit here.
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Yes, not all of them were corrupt. I know he was arrested for corruption— he took a lot of money, and I took a bit less—so am I safe?
Speaker A
Is anyone safe? It's all transparent. If I'm corrupt, it's very likely, right ? So everyone is looking at it, just as you said, regarding confidence and trust .
Speaker A
Hmm. It's very difficult. It's difficult. Well, that's the people underneath. Then how do you think Xi Jinping feels? These people were all promoted by me.
Speaker A
Right. These people were all promoted; these three-star generals were all promoted by me. Where were they promoted from? From two-star lieutenant generals.
Speaker A
Then how did those two-star lieutenant generals rise to that rank? They rose from one-star major generals. And who promoted them to one-star major general ?
Speaker A
These people who have been arrested and purged. Exactly, they were arrested. These people who have been arrested, who was it that promoted them? In the past, there were Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. Hu Jintao was a puppet emperor; he was
Speaker A
empty, and Jiang Zemin promoted him. Jiang Zemin's two right-hand men, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, were promoted by him, and that continued to the present.
Speaker A
They were promoted from major generals to lieutenant generals, and then to generals. So when he came to power, he still had to pick from existing generals . I’m asking, where did he pick them from? He picked them from the lieutenant
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generals. And where did he pick the lieutenant generals from? From the major generals. So who promoted these lieutenant generals and major generals?
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They were promoted during the Jiang Zemin era. Are you saying that the major generals and lieutenant generals promoted during the Jiang Zemin era would remain loyal to Jiang Zemin or Hu Jintao through the Hu Jintao era and into your Xi Jinping era? Shouldn't they
Speaker A
theoretically be loyal to you? Right? Because it was you who promoted them. But if this person has been corrupt for decades, and you promote them while knowing full well they are corrupt, what is that called? It is called "promoting
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while harboring illness." Yes, that is the technical term for it: "promoting while harboring illness." So why promote them while harboring illness? Because no matter who you pick, it seems only corrupt people are available; everyone is corrupt, everyone is like that. Then
Speaker A
can't I just kick them all out and start picking from the majors? Can't I promote some majors directly to the rank of general? Is there no such thing? You can't just...
Speaker A
Translate it to say promoting a colonel to a general. That doesn't happen. Of course, when I was in the military, everyone said that jumping from a major to a general was absurd.
Speaker A
So if you say today that promoting a colonel to a general is equally absurd, isn't that the case? So you say, the people we are talking about today are only those officially announced; we haven't even mentioned those who have
Speaker A
gone missing. Exactly. So if you tally it up now, 32 are officially announced, and 25 are missing .
Speaker A
What do you think he is thinking? And what do you think the people under him are thinking? The confidence and trust you mentioned basically do not exist at all, in my opinion. Looking at the list you’ve compiled, many are related to
Speaker A
political commissars. If it's related to political commissars, that means they are very important for China in warfare , because your entire internal control is handled by them. If you remove so many political commissars, it means that the Chinese Communist Party has a
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problem with its internal control over the military. The two highest-ranking political commissars have both fallen. Miao Hua and whoever else have both fallen, so who do you think he can trust?
Speaker A
When Miao Hua was caught, it was claimed that he was in prison, and in the end, he couldn't take the pressure and had a mental breakdown.
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And he confessed to about 1,300 or 1,500 names. They said, "How could it be so many?" I said, "It's simple, he was in charge of personnel." Yeah.
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Remembering 1,300 is really not easy; remembering 130 is already quite impressive. When I was in Taiwan, I participated in some rather political events, like when someone was running for office or doing something, and they would gather a bunch
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of people to help out. I personally saw a person in charge of organizing these events introduce the 100-plus people in attendance to a superior.
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I forgot the exact number, maybe 100- something, let's just say 105 people. He knew every single one of them. He called their names, "This is Liu Bao-jie , he does such-and-such, this is Ming Chu-cheng, he does such-and-such," and
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he didn't get a single one wrong, except for half a name because two people had similar names. He got one character wrong.
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He didn't know who it was, I corrected him, and then he went on; out of over 100 people, not one mistake.
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Yeah. Amazing, right? Amazing. I believe you cover political news; Taiwan has politicians like that too, who remembers everyone.
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Wu Den-yih. Right. Wu Den-yih is exactly that kind of person. Uh, Soong Chu-yu is also good at it.
Speaker A
Soong Chu-yu. Yes, both of them are very capable, so they are good at personnel matters; I heard Wang Jin-pyng is very good too.
Speaker A
Right? Yes, he is very good at personnel matters. Okay, so you say Miao Hua is impressive . He remembers 1,300. He even remembers 1,500.
Speaker A
Yeah. And when he was forced to write while in prison, he could write down names every day. Who received 20,000, who received 50,000, who took a bribe of 500,000, who paid what, and so on. Does he remember all of that?
Speaker A
Yeah. Or is it because of a mental breakdown, like, "I can't take it anymore, I'll write it all out for you." Because if I'm just writing nonsense, would you really arrest all 1,000-plus people?
Speaker A
Right, simply put, Miao Hua was in charge of personnel because he was the highest political officer, the top political commissar, so he handled all these people's resumes.
Speaker A
Not just for promotions to general, lieutenant general, or major general. He might have seen their resumes when they were promoted from colonel to major, right?
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So it's not strange for him to have seen over 1,000 resumes. But for him to confess to over 1,000 people, that is very strange.
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If he could confess to 200 people, I would already be impressed. But are all the people he confessed against really guilty? Or perhaps, because they were under intense interrogation and sleep-deprived for ten days, they just cracked.
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You can't really say. Mm. So, as you said, I think the biggest blow is definitely to the military's morale.
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And his suspicion of those below him— that’s why I’ve always described it as mutual distrust between the top and the bottom. If it were you in that position , would you sleep well?
Speaker A
Certainly not, right? That’s what I mean , isn’t it? Now, as we just discussed, everyone has noticed in this Fifth Plenary Session— which is obviously critical to Taiwan— the Central Military Commission should have seven members, but right now there
Speaker A
are only two. You still have five vacancies, correct. So, can you invade Taiwan in 2027, or can you invade in the near future? The key lies in your Central Military Commission members: can you confirm them, can you fill the
Speaker A
positions, and who are you filling them with? Why did Davidson say 2027 is the window? It’s because the U.S. wasn’t paying enough attention before, allowing your A2/AD and your Rocket Force to develop significantly.
Speaker A
Developing the Rocket Force is meant to deal with aircraft carriers, to keep them from approaching Taiwan. So, 2027 is essentially the year when China and the U.S. reach a balance through missile capabilities. After 2027, the U.S.
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littoral operations and its entire new combat concept will have taken shape, so after 2027, it won't be that easy for you to invade Taiwan. That’s why 2027 has become so important. So, whether this Fifth Plenary Session will finalize
Speaker A
these appointments this year, and who they appoint, is a very important indicator for Taiwan's security.
Speaker A
It’s not very likely, I think. Because, as we mentioned earlier, while 32 officials have been officially announced as purged, let me first list the 25 who have gone missing. I don't need to name names; just listing their titles, and
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everyone will understand. One deputy chief of staff from the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission. One Navy commander, one Air Force commander, two political commissars of the Rocket Force, one political commissar of the Strategic Support Force, two political commissars
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of the Eastern Theater Command, and one commander and one political commissar of the Western Theater Command. And I’ve only read less than half. Two commanders and two political commissars of the Southern Theater Command. You might ask , "There's only one commander, how can
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you arrest two?" The former and current holders. Oh, both the former and current ones.
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Both were arrested. One commander and one political commissar of the Northern Theater Command, one commander and two political commissars of the Central Theater Command, and one commander and one political commissar of the People's Armed Police. These are the ones who
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have gone missing; we haven't even repeated the ones arrested earlier. One president and one political commissar for the National Defense University; one president and one political commissar for the Academy of Military Sciences.
Speaker A
These are the 25 missing individuals who have not been officially announced. So, this makes a total of 57 generals who have either been announced or are missing. Now for our next question: you mentioned the issue of replacements, so
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let's get back to the replacements. You said that this is uncertain for the upcoming National People's Congress; why is that?
Speaker A
Because according to the CCP's military regulations, from the vice chairmen and members of the Military Commission to the major theater commands, all commanders and political commissars, as well as the commanders and commissars of each service branch, must be three-star
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generals. In that case, how many three-star generals are there in total? Theoretically, there should be 26 active-duty positions. That is, 26 positions with actual command authority . How many are there right now? There are only six now.
Speaker A
Of those 26, only six have real command authority; yes, let me read them to you .
Speaker A
Oh. And even these might not all have command authority. Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin.
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He used to be in charge of discipline. Then there is Defense Minister Dong Jun , who has been in the position for two or three years, but two titles have never been given to him. He wasn't given the title of Commission member, nor the
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title of State Councilor. So this is very strange, having held the post for so long. Then there are the few newly promoted generals: Military Discipline Inspection Commission Secretary Zhang Shengmin, Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang, Central Theater Commander Huang Ming, and Air Force Commander
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Chang Dingqiu. That makes these six. Mm. So, 20 are still missing. You just asked about filling the vacancies; where will these 20 come from?
Speaker A
Let me read them one by one so it's clearer for everyone. One Military Commission vice chairman needs to be replaced, and this person must be competent, not just someone managing military discipline.
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For example, a position like Zhang Youxia's or He Weidong's. Then the Chief of the Joint Staff of the Military Commission. This is very important, the Chief of Joint Staff is critical.
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Right. Then, as you mentioned, the political commissars and the Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission.
Speaker A
Mm. They are all vacant. The Eastern Theater political commissar is vacant; Southern Theater commander and political commissar are vacant; Western Theater commander and political commissar are vacant; Northern Theater commander and political commissar are vacant; Central Theater political commissar is vacant.
Speaker A
Isn't that basically all empty? Yes. I have only read about half of them so far; there is still half to go. Army commander and political commissar are vacant; Navy commander and political commissar are vacant; Air Force commander is filled, but the political
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commissar is vacant; Rocket Force commander is filled, but they still need to fill the deputy and the political commissar positions. The commander and political commissar of the Armed Police Force were dismissed. These are the 20 positions we are talking about now.
Speaker A
Right. So you ask, how many need to be filled to restore combat capability? Uh, at the very least, half of them.
Speaker A
Mm. At the very least. Yes. Fill 10 out of the 20. But if you fill 10 out of 20, I highly doubt they can command operations because modern warfare is joint warfare.
Speaker A
Right. It’s not just saying your Eastern Theater Command can fight a war. Because it involves issues with adjacent theater commands.
Speaker A
That’s correct. He has to worry that if I attack Taiwan , will India attack me, will North Korea make a move, or will Russia take advantage of the situation? I have to worry about these problems. Don't think that just because I stand
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shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia, I trust them. The Chinese don't trust the Russians, for one thing.
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Then there’s the Koreans, the Vietnamese —those are the three they trust the least—and India. These four are not to be trusted.
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So, you asked about filling the vacancies to a level sufficient for war ; I’m telling you first that they are missing this many.
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So you say this shortage truly impacts their combat capability, and it really affects any of these so-called imaginations about them invading Taiwan by 2027. Of course, of course.
Speaker A
Do you think with such a fragmented command, he has any certainty? Do you think he—well, the average person doesn't know. The average person just hears us say he purged so-and-so; they read in the news that Zhang Xia collapsed, then Liu Zhengli collapsed.
Speaker A
They don’t even know who is left, but it doesn't matter. He’s gone, so-and-so is gone—that’s all everyone hears.
Speaker A
Right. What I’m telling you now is that even if they are gone, the positions haven't been filled. That’s the first thing.
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Secondly, even if I fill the spots, am I sure they can fight, can command, and do I trust them?
Speaker A
These are three major problems. Mm. First, can they fight? Second, can they lead the troops? Third , can I trust them? Can I, Xi Jinping, trust them?
Speaker A
And will they trust me? Right. These are all reasons why I keep emphasizing the mutual suspicion between superiors and subordinates.
Speaker A
We have seen this too often in history, and you know, I often use this example: after Stalin truly seized power, he began purging old comrades and cadres, like Trotsky and others.
Speaker A
Some died, some fled, some were arrested , some were purged, and so on. The military was also heavily purged, though perhaps not to this extent.
Speaker A
Mm. Not to this extent, though it was still quite brutal. For example, three out of five regional commanders were purged, leaving only Zhukov.
Speaker A
So, Hitler was very pleased to see this . He thought that by purging all these experienced people who knew how to fight , my war would be much easier.
Speaker A
It was an opportunity for him. So Hitler decided that he could attack. Right. And he was right. When the fighting started, Hitler’s forces swept through like a hot knife through butter until winter, when they finally couldn't advance any further.
Speaker A
Yes. Hitler attacked in June and didn't stall until December, so the first six months were a landslide.
Speaker A
This means that if you purge your senior commanders like that, whether the replacements can actually fight or command effectively remains a huge question.
Speaker A
Don't even mention others; in our military, have you ever encountered a situation where a deputy acts for the commander? Have you ever seen that?
Speaker A
When the commander position is vacant and the deputy takes over. How long do you think it takes for that deputy to become familiar with the operations and command effectively after taking over?
Speaker A
I think it always takes some time because establishing authority is time-consuming. Because most people in deputy positions in the military......are very cautious and keep to themselves.
Speaker A
Right. They don't dare to ask too many questions, right? Everything is the commander's responsibility. So, I have actually encountered situations where, after a commander went on leave...I went on leave, and my deputy didn't dare to approve leave requests.
Speaker A
The deputy didn't dare to approve them. I thought, approving leave is such a minor matter. Why wouldn't you dare to approve it? In the end, I had no choice but to find someone else and say, "I'll approve it for you." So, of course,
Speaker A
everyone's personality is different, but I'm telling you that to a considerable degree, the deputy—first, they might not dare to take responsibility, and second , when they are just "acting" in the role, they think, "I'm only acting now.
Speaker A
" Right. " I don't dare to do too much."" I'll wait until the storm passes, wait until things calm down, and wait until I am formally appointed before doing anything." Mm.
Speaker A
So, before official appointments are made, many are currently just "acting" in their roles. Just acting.
Speaker A
Many of the positions that should be filled by full generals are currently filled by lieutenant generals acting in those roles.
Speaker A
Many lieutenant generals are just acting in those positions and so on. You think he's a Lieutenant General, so tomorrow I'll hold a promotion ceremony , make him a General, and then he'll have the authority and the guts to
Speaker A
command. Hmm. Not necessarily. Because the underlying essence is also quite different. Hello, everyone in the Baojie circle of friends.
Speaker A
We actually read every bit of your support and advice very carefully. Because your every word and sentence is a key factor for our self-reflection, self-examination, and even how we adjust our direction in the future.
Speaker A
So, as we just mentioned, what comments do you have now, and how can we respond to our audience?
Speaker A
Sujun says they support Baojie and the team, and that you are the best; thank you very much for your affirmation.
Speaker A
The director says our program still has a lot of room for improvement, and that kind of improvement is the work we do every day.
Speaker A
Tinghoucha5 says the government authorities should take charge and firmly prevent CCP products from entering Taiwan.
Speaker A
I think it should be put this way: it’s hard for people to understand why we know there are so many online shopping platforms, yet so many Chinese online shopping goods are just coming in directly. If you don't have any
Speaker A
regulations—and many countries have them now—I don't understand why we in Taiwan don't have regulations in this area.
Speaker A
Without regulations, first, there's the issue of quality; second, there's the question of whether it harms Taiwan's businesses and industries. These are issues the government should face.
Speaker A
W022 says "God bless Taiwan," thank you , let's protect Taiwan together, keep it up, Taiwanese people.
Speaker A
We hope that we can truly guard this land of Taiwan and properly protect this country.
Speaker A
Heiren says, "Thanks to Brother Baojie for producing such a great show." Actually, being able to do a show like this is, I feel, a blessing, a stroke of good fortune, and we will cherish it very much.
Speaker A
Wei2010 says he watched the episode on Zheng Zhipeng and asks if he's the only one who thinks Zheng Liwen looks ferocious.
Speaker A
Regarding whether the legislator is a disaster, we won't comment. He watched the episode on the warning between Trump and Xi Jinping and said that "China and Peace" being "incompatible like water and fire" should be changed to sound more coherent. Meaning, China and peace
Speaker A
are not necessarily incompatible; in fact, the one seeking peace today is Taiwan, and we have never provoked anyone. Yes, alright, as mentioned just now, we are very serious about doing our job. Actually, as we were just saying, I
Speaker A
have never belonged to any political party, and I don't go around promoting that. I just want to tell you that, here on this land, while I was covering the DPP for so long, I learned one phrase: " Believe in Taiwan, believe in the people
Speaker A
; believe in Taiwan, believe in the people." "This is the core idea behind me doing this program.
Topics:China military purgeCentral Military CommissionXi JinpingTaiwan Strait2027 invasionPLA Rocket Forceanti-corruption campaignCCP Fifth Plenary SessionMing Chu-chengPLA leadership
