Speaker A
Hello, and welcome to a special holiday edition of Power and Politics. I'm Catherine Cullen.
Discussion on NDP's future under Avi Lewis amid party divisions and challenges in communicating bold progressive ideas to Canadians.
Key Takeaways
- Avi Lewis aims to take the NDP further left with bold, populist ideas focused on the 99%.
- Effective communication to the broader public, not just party members, is crucial for NDP’s success.
- Internal party divisions, especially with provincial NDP leaders, pose a significant challenge.
- The NDP must balance being an issues-based party and a representational party seeking government power.
- Immediate policy relevance, such as addressing cost of living and housing, is key to gaining voter support.
What the video covers
- The video focuses on the political landscape with the Liberals nearing a majority, Conservatives maintaining support, and the NDP under new leader Avi Lewis.
- Avi Lewis emphasizes bold, populist ideas aimed at the 99%, with a focus on cost of living and progressive policies.
- Melanie Riche highlights the need for the NDP to balance big progressive ideas with clear communication to the broader Canadian public beyond party members.
- There is concern that Avi Lewis may need to moderate his messaging to connect with traditional NDP voters and the general electorate.
- Greg McKern points out internal divisions within the NDP, especially with provincial leaders distancing themselves from Lewis's federal leadership.
- The challenge for Lewis includes uniting the party’s base while appealing to voters in key provinces like Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Ontario.
- The discussion touches on the historical role of the NDP as both a conscience of Parliament and a potential governing party.
- Fred Delori notes the significant burden on Avi Lewis to reconcile federal and provincial NDP interests and to appeal to voters in regions like Alberta.
- The video underscores the importance of immediate, tangible policy impacts, such as housing, to resonate with Canadians facing urgent issues.
- Overall, the NDP faces a critical moment in defining its identity and strategy under new leadership amid a shifting political environment.
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
It's a pivotal time for three of the main federal political parties.
Speaker A
The Liberals could be on the brink of securing a majority government one year into their mandate.
Speaker A
Conservative leader Pierre Poliev sailed through a review, but he's been leading support and MPs to the Liberals.
Speaker A
And the NDP has picked a new leader, but there are divisions within.
Speaker A
Can Avi Lewis return the party to its former glory or even simply official status?
Speaker A
Our party insiders are here to discuss it all.
Speaker A
Greg McKern, former Liberal ministerial staffer, now with Can Strategies.
Speaker A
Fred Delori, former Conservative campaign manager and partner at Northstar Public Affairs.
Speaker A
And here with me, Melanie Riche, former director of communications for the New Democratic Party.
Speaker A
Now a senior consultant with Earnscliff Strategies. Let's begin with the NDP, hot off a leadership race.
Speaker B
Avi Lewis.
Speaker B
39,734 votes.
Speaker B
39,734.
Speaker C
We are building a new foundation for our party.
Speaker C
And we are ready to come roaring back on the Canadian political stage.
Speaker C
The NDP will start winning again because we will become that beacon to the 99%.
Speaker C
A government that works for the many, not the money.
Speaker C
We're coming with a completely different set of ideas that are populist and popular.
Speaker C
There are differences in our NDP family that are the exception in a huge shared base of values.
Speaker C
Certainly, uh, the spiraling cost of living is just a fundamental focus.
Speaker C
It has been throughout this, throughout this leadership race and now that I'm leader, we're going to stay laser focused on that.
Speaker A
Okay, Mel, I want to start with you here.
Speaker A
What do you think the choice of Avi Lewis says about the direction that the NDP wants to go right now?
Speaker D
Right, I think, uh, throughout the leadership, what we saw, um, particularly with Avi Lewis's campaign, is folks who were excited, who were motivated.
Speaker D
And I think that's what we saw at convention this weekend.
Speaker D
Is a motivated, um, you know, voter base within the party that came out and supported Avi in big numbers.
Speaker D
Um, what that says about the direction of the party, I think will be a little bit different than what we've seen under Jagmeet, um, under Tom and even under Jack.
Speaker D
I think it's some, uh, more focus on, you know, the, the issue-based that's maybe seen as a little bit more progressive than, than pragmatic.
Speaker D
And I think that's what we're going to see, um, in the next little bit.
Speaker D
I do think that there's, there's an importance in balancing that.
Speaker D
I think, um, you know, in, in the, in the leadership speech on Sunday, we heard, uh, Avi talk a lot about some of the same things that he's been talking about throughout the campaign.
Speaker D
But this was now an opportunity to speak to Canadians instead of just members.
Speaker D
And using a lot of expressions and words that regular folks don't necessarily understand.
Speaker D
I think there's a broad, um, broad group of folks who may not have a membership to the NDP, but are part of the NDP's universe.
Speaker D
So I think it'll be important, um, in the next, you know, few weeks, few months to temper the big ideas with how are we talking about our big ideas in a way that people actually understand what we're talking about.
Speaker A
Okay, so, so this is really interesting.
Speaker A
I want to stay with this for a sec.
Speaker A
Uh, temper the big ideas.
Speaker A
I mean, he said bold.
Speaker A
He is not afraid of the word socialism.
Speaker A
I mean, you say progressive, but he wants to take this party to the left.
Speaker A
Are you suggesting maybe he's going to have to what, cool his heels?
Speaker A
Pivot a little bit.
Speaker A
Now that the race is over?
Speaker D
Right.
Speaker D
I do.
Speaker D
I do actually.
Speaker D
Because you're not talking to members anymore, so if you want to go anywhere, you need to talk to regular people.
Speaker D
And I keep thinking of, you know, my parents at home watching TV, who may not understand any of the things that Avi was talking about on Sunday.
Speaker D
And I keep thinking of, you know, my parents at home watching TV, who may not understand any of the things that Avi was talking about on Sunday.
Speaker D
But who traditionally vote NDP or who have voted NDP.
Speaker D
You know, under Jagmeet and and other past leaders.
Speaker D
So the importance of, um, and and I don't even know that it's tempering the big ideas.
Speaker D
But it's making sure that folks know, uh, what you're doing for them in the immediate.
Speaker D
We, we get lost a little bit sometimes in the big ideas.
Speaker D
Where, um, it takes a lot of time for those, those big programs to come in.
Speaker A
Is there a specific example you could give us?
Speaker D
Yeah, uh, maybe a specific example.
Speaker D
The way we talk about housing oftentimes is, is, is difficult.
Speaker D
For folks because it's going to take years to build, right?
Speaker D
And, and the, the, um, it, it's, it seems sometimes as a little bit out of touch with the reality of real people.
Speaker D
Because they don't have years to wait for stuff.
Speaker D
So the ability to tell them how we're going to help them in the immediacy is, is really important.
Speaker D
Because folks need help now.
Speaker A
Okay, Greg, I want to bring you in here.
Speaker A
I mean, there's the question of how to communicate your ideas to Canadians.
Speaker A
There's what to do about divisions within the New Democratic Party.
Speaker A
There's the question of finding a seat.
Speaker A
Mr. Lewis has a pretty long to-do list.
Speaker A
Where do you think he should start?
Speaker E
Well, you know, when you start off within minutes of winning, um, you know, the leader of the NDP in Saskatchewan.
Speaker E
Carla Beck, who has a really strong chance of becoming the next premier there.
Speaker E
The leader of the NDP, uh, in, uh, Alberta, uh, Mr. Nenshi.
Speaker E
They both issued statements, you know, basically disavowing, uh, the new federal NDP leader.
Speaker E
So, it, you know, what, what's the old story about, you know, the best time to plant a tree?
Speaker E
You know, is today and then, you know, or, or, you know, was a year ago and then or 10 years ago.
Speaker E
It feels like the work hasn't been done with some of the places in Canada where the NDP are quite strong.
Speaker E
I'm speaking to you from Halifax.
Speaker E
The official opposition here is the NDP.
Speaker E
In Ontario, the official opposition is the NDP.
Speaker E
You know, Wab Canoe, uh, premier, BC premier.
Speaker E
And then the two, two leaders that I just mentioned.
Speaker E
So it, you know, Wab Canoe was probably the best thing that happened to Mr. Lewis.
Speaker E
Who, you know, in his statements.
Speaker E
But he also talked about the importance of winning.
Speaker E
And my NDP friends talk about the struggle within their party about whether or not you want to be the conscience of Parliament.
Speaker E
Or do you want to be in government?
Speaker E
And it feels like Mr. Lewis is talking about an issues-based party as opposed to a representationally-based party.
Speaker E
And I, you know, I can't help but think of the moment right now.
Speaker E
The challenges that the Canadian auto industry is, is going, uh, through.
Speaker E
And I, you know, I think back to the, to the 80s and, and Ed Broadbent, who represented Oshawa.
Speaker E
The heart of a lot of, uh, auto manufacturing in Canada.
Speaker E
And and it seems to be a big gulf between Mr. Lewis and those traditional NDP voters.
Speaker E
And I think that's going to be a big challenge for him.
Speaker E
Uh, you know, Fred, uh, you know, wrote something about the NDP that got a lot of people's attention last week.
Speaker E
And our comments last week, you know, I, I had, you know, NDP, um, supporters on social media, you know, kind of attacking me.
Speaker E
You know, how, how is a liberal, are you going to say this?
Speaker E
But like, if I lived in Calgary and I'm looking at a premier that is talking about allowing a referendum around separation.
Speaker E
She's playing to the base of her party.
Speaker E
Well, and and there's no liberal party.
Speaker E
Well, I'm looking to people like Mr. Nenshi to make sure Alberta stays in, in Canada.
Speaker E
So, you know, I, I, the, the answer to your question, Catherine, is I think the new NDP leader has a huge burden ahead of him.
Speaker E
And and, you know, with two leaders that are waiting to take over in those provinces.
Speaker E
That don't feel like they, he reflects their values.
Speaker A
Uh, Fred, uh, so Greg referenced what you wrote on your substack.
Speaker A
Uh, which was in part that the provincial NDP should be terrified.
Speaker A
Of what Avi Lewis's leadership will bring.
Speaker A
I mean, Greg referenced that conversation with Wab Canoe.
Speaker A
Wab Canoe's probably helping Avi Lewis out a bit here.
Speaker A
But Avi Lewis is saying, listen, there is still common ground.
Speaker A
We can still work together.
Speaker A
Do you think he can mend some of those fences?
Speaker A
And as a conservative, I mean, you guys need the NDP to do a little bit better.
Speaker A
Are you anxious to see him up his game on that front?
Speaker F
Uh, look, I, I've, I've always argued against the word pivot.
Speaker F
That's a very, uh, striking move where you completely go a separate direction.
Speaker F
Uh, I think he's now getting on to the main, uh, agenda of what Canadians have been talking about.
Speaker F
Uh, and what they're concerned about when it comes to Trump and tariffs.
Speaker F
He was obviously very good on affordability and crime.
Speaker F
And came within only 20 or so seats of, uh, of the Liberals in the last election.
Speaker F
So it did work in that regard.
Speaker F
Now, he hasn't been strong on the tariff and US thing.
Speaker F
Until, uh, about a month or so ago when he gave his speech at the Economic Club.
Speaker F
And then he's been doing his tours.
Speaker F
He's went to the UK, he's went to the US.
Speaker F
And, uh, his program on Joe Rogan.
Speaker F
I think the strategy right now, though, for him and what they should be doing.
Speaker F
Is, uh, get as much time as you can.
Speaker F
Right now the issue set is not good.
Speaker F
We have a, uh, major, uh, trade crisis right now.
Speaker F
And all eyes are on the Prime Minister to, uh, diversify our markets and get things moving.
Speaker F
Uh, and it's not the real time for politics or elections.
Speaker F
So I think time is on his side if he can get to that stage.
Speaker F
There's a lot of conservative MPs who if an election were today would lose their seats.
Speaker F
Uh, and they're nervous about that.
Speaker F
Um, so I think he needs to, uh, time's one thing.
Speaker F
Also softening, uh, his voter coalition.
Speaker F
In terms of, uh, or sorry, his negatives.
Speaker F
Uh, which are very, uh, have been very high.
Speaker F
And I think he's had some success over the last few weeks on this.
Speaker F
I think the Joe Rogan thing.
Speaker F
Uh, was heard by millions of Canadians and the polling that we've seen on it.
Speaker F
Show that it's had a positive impact.
Speaker F
There has been a tightening by a few points in a number of the major polls.
Speaker F
He doesn't need to take over the polls or even tied them or or even come too close right now.
Speaker F
He just needs to soften the negatives.
Speaker F
That needs to be his focus.
Speaker F
And if he accomplishes that, he could get himself back into the running.
Speaker F
And again, it all comes down to when the next election is and what the issue sets are when we are in that next election.
Speaker A
Uh, Mel, one way he gets time is if Mark Carney gets a majority government.
Speaker A
But then Pierre Poliev potentially has to hang on for three years when some members of his caucus have, have left for the Liberals.
Speaker A
Is there such a thing as, as too much time for Mr. Poliev?
Speaker A
Like, like how does he get the balance right here?
Speaker D
Totally, and a reminder that the Conservative is the only party who have adopted Michael Chong's, uh, private reform act.
Speaker D
Which means that caucus gets to, uh, get rid of him at any, at any point that caucus wants.
Speaker D
So absolutely, too much time could be a bad thing for Pierre Poliev.
Speaker D
Particularly if he can't figure out what his message is and what his opposition to Carney is.
Speaker D
I think to, to Fred's point, there has been, um, Fred may not like the word pivot.
Speaker D
But finally a pivot after hearing about a pivot for a year, he said the things he needed to say on the US.
Speaker D
He said the things he needed to say about Trump.
Speaker D
He didn't take the bait from, from Joe Rogan on those things.
Speaker D
So, so some of those things are, are good for Pierre Poliev.
Speaker D
I think it's way too late.
Speaker D
I think the time to do that was, was a year ago.
Speaker D
And I don't know how much, um, goodwill that'll buy him with, with voters.
Speaker D
I'll go back to, you know, when I look at my parents.
Speaker D
Um, is, is that something that they can, or is he somebody that they can still vote for?
Speaker D
No, he's still the same, you know, guy who's said the same kind of things.
Speaker D
But, but it does, um, make it harder still for Pierre Poliev.
Speaker D
He, he hasn't figured out what, um, how to describe Carney.
Speaker D
And how to describe how different he is than Carney.
Speaker D
And I think that's a major challenge because he's unable to make the choices clear.
Speaker D
And in this weird time where he's been unable to do that, it's almost like he's lost ground on his issue sets.
Speaker D
We hear him talking less about the cost of living.
Speaker D
We hear him talking less about affordability because he's trying to match the Prime Minister on, on the Prime Minister's, you know, international stage.
Speaker D
Seriousness, statesman-like.
Speaker D
So he's trying to, to do what he had never done there, but in the, in the end, I think it opens up a massive place also on affordability.
Speaker D
And I think the opportunity there is actually for the Liberals, it's for the NDP.
Speaker A
Uh, Greg, interesting question when Mel says, well, he's got to figure out how to describe Carney.
Speaker A
But at the same time, some of what we're seeing, I think, is around how he describes himself.
Speaker A
What he wants Canadians to see about himself.
Speaker A
What is the bigger challenge for Pierre Poliev?
Speaker A
Is it how he deals with Mark Carney or how he presents Pierre Poliev?
Speaker E
Well, it's, it's funny, one of the things that he had said, I think, in the Rogan interview was he, he said, I am the Prime Minister in waiting.
Speaker E
And and I find that odd that, uh, there's lots of people that have been described, you know, prime ministers or premiers in waiting.
Speaker E
They don't usually describe themselves that way.
Speaker E
And it would have been perhaps a more apt, uh, thing to describe yourself in 2024.
Speaker E
It's certainly not that feeling now.
Speaker E
Uh, up until about Christmas, um, the parties were neck and neck.
Speaker E
Uh, Mr. Carney far ahead, uh, you know, in terms of head-to-head polling between, um, you know, Carney and Poliev.
Speaker E
But since that time, and I disagree with, with Fred.
Speaker E
I'm not sure the polls are actually showing that they got a, a bump from going on the Joe Rogan show.
Speaker E
I think, I think he got a lot of attention from it.
Speaker E
But we haven't figured out whether it's actually given him any boost.
Speaker E
I, I, look, Catherine, I do wonder.
Speaker E
What does Aaron O'Toole think some days?
Speaker E
What did I do that was so wrong when Poliev gets chance after chance after chance?
Speaker E
If he goes on a podcast and talks about the RCMP being politically manipulated.
Speaker E
Um, he goes on the Joe Rogan podcast, which we can talk about the reach.
Speaker E
But still, it's a podcast where some very unseemly things were talked about.
Speaker E
I still hear from people that they're very uncomfortable.
Speaker E
That, you know, that, that, um, that Mr. Poliev went on a show where he would talk about, you know, who Justin Trudeau's real father is.
Speaker E
I mean, that, that sounds like, you know, American network afternoon TV in the 1990s.
Speaker A
He did, he did shut that.
Speaker A
I mean, that was Joe Rogan's speculation.
Speaker A
And Mr. Poliev shut it down.
Speaker E
But Catherine, I, I, I hear what you're saying.
Speaker E
But I would, when you say that, I would actually encourage people to go and watch that.
Speaker E
Because there's a lot of laughter during that.
Speaker E
I wouldn't, it wasn't the hardest pushback I've ever seen.
Speaker E
And he kind of said, no, I don't know about that.
Speaker E
And I mean, that's the risk.
Speaker E
You go on, when you go on a medium like that, don't be surprised when it happens.
Speaker E
Um, I, I, I still, and I'm still kind of wondering if this push in the United States.
Speaker E
Is about having, you know, a lane open post politics for him.
Speaker E
And if that's the case, you know, he could do very well.
Speaker E
In the American right-wing speaking, uh, circuit.
Speaker E
But he's also got, you know, his, his campaign manager said a few days ago.
Speaker E
That they were focused on affordability and then a couple days later, Mr. Poliev is retreating the author of Harry Potter about trans issues.
Speaker E
And there's a picture of a, of a female boxer who is female.
Speaker E
And why if you are focused on affordability, are you talking about that?
Speaker E
The other thing, Catherine, I'm noticing is he seems to have less and less control over his caucus.
Speaker E
In terms of caucus discipline.
Speaker E
Um, Jamil Javanini, the part of the reason why Mr. Poliev couldn't go to Washington.
Speaker E
Is if he didn't leave Washington with a meeting with the, after meeting with the VP and the president.
Speaker E
Like Javanini did.
Speaker E
It would have been seen as a, as a failure.
Speaker E
And you also have Mr. Javanini voting the other day with props, using the Bible as a prop.
Speaker E
Which seems to suggest, well, the conservative MPs who didn't vote with a Bible.
Speaker E
What's up with them?
Speaker A
Uh, Fred, uh, Greg raises the question of what Aaron O'Toole, your former boss, might be thinking.
Speaker A
Why didn't he get a second chance?
Speaker A
Well, he didn't get a second chance because of the Reform Act and because of conservative caucus.
Speaker A
So I wonder how much you think Mr. Poliev, uh, needs to be concerned about that issue.
Speaker A
Uh, and that being perhaps the biggest challenge to his leadership right now.
Speaker F
Well, since Poliev passed the leadership review at the convention.
Speaker F
There is no other way to take him as leader other than if caucus does it.
Speaker F
And they do have that mechanism they could use.
Speaker F
At the end of the day, you know, I was Aaron O'Toole's campaign manager.
Speaker F
I ran two of his leadership campaigns and his general election.
Speaker F
And would have been happy to, uh, run his next campaign if he'd asked me to.
Speaker F
Uh, but at the end of the day, caucus didn't support him.
Speaker F
And they chose to remove him as leader.
Speaker F
Uh, I'm not hearing anything like that happening right now in the Conservative caucus.
Speaker F
I know when there was floor crossings happening, there was, um, reports of up to a dozen MPs who are very, you know, unhappy with Poliev.
Speaker F
That's a very small percentage of a caucus this large.
Speaker F
This is the largest opposition caucus in Canadian history with 140 plus members.
Speaker F
Uh, so it, there is no movement right now.
Speaker F
But it is something he has to be mindful of, um, as he goes in.
Speaker F
And as you know, we talked about the timing.
Speaker F
I do think time is on his side.
Speaker F
Um, but, you know, if things don't improve.
Speaker F
If if MPs are still worried after a year.
Speaker F
If we're talking about the same conversation next year, this could move.
Speaker F
But I remain convinced that Poliev will lead our party into the next election.
Speaker F
Unless he himself determines that's not what he wants to do.
Speaker A
Fred, you're saying he needs more time.
Speaker A
We just have a minute here.
Speaker A
But I'm wondering, is the ultimate conclusion that it's a good thing for Pierre Poliev?
Speaker A
If another MP crosses the floor, even if, like, if he's bleeding more MPs to the Liberals.
Speaker A
It ultimately that helps him?
Speaker F
Well, no, we don't, we don't need that.
Speaker F
If, uh, if the Liberals do a clean sweep in the by-elections, they'll have their true majority.
Speaker F
Uh, so it's not like that, uh, adds another, uh, in terms of prolonging this Parliament.
Speaker F
So, uh, and obviously losing a member is not helpful.
Speaker A
Okay, we are going to leave this conversation there.
Speaker A
But we're not done yet.
Speaker A
Still to come, can the Liberals capitalize on their momentum heading into those three federal by-elections?
Speaker A
That could, as Fred said, push them over the edge of a majority.
Speaker A
Our party insiders will be right back.
Speaker A
Welcome back to this special holiday edition of Power and Politics.
Speaker A
Today, we've been going over where each of the federal parties stands ahead of the upcoming by-elections.
Speaker A
But we're going to open the floor to our political insiders now to talk about what they're watching for in the weeks and months ahead.
Speaker A
I'm joined by Greg McKern, Melanie Riche, and Fred Delori.
Speaker A
Uh, so Greg, we are going to start with you.
Speaker A
You are watching the Prime Minister closely in the eight weeks left in this, uh, parliamentary session before the summer sitting.
Speaker A
Before the summer.
Speaker A
What do you think he's going to be prioritizing?
Speaker E
Well, just quick background for people that watch politics.
Speaker E
Um, there's something that's a phrase that's used sometimes the silly season.
Speaker E
And usually refers to that time before the Christmas break and the summer break.
Speaker E
Where you actually see what priorities the government has in terms of the legislation.
Speaker E
Um, and it's not just what they want to get passed in a minority.
Speaker E
It's going to be what they can actually get passed.
Speaker E
So the by-elections may have a lot to do with, um, what happens before the summer breaks.
Speaker E
There is a long session that goes from May to June.
Speaker E
And, uh, you know, sometimes there's extended hours.
Speaker E
There's, um, I know this week it was hard to, to believe this in Canada.
Speaker E
But it gets very, very hot in Ottawa very early.
Speaker E
And a lot of mistakes can be made.
Speaker E
The reverse in, in the fall was you had people like Michelle Rempel tweeting, um, we're going to win.
Speaker E
There was an, you know, a feeling that the conservatives might decide on the, on a confidence vote to, to pull the plug.
Speaker E
We saw thanks to some curtain shenanigans.
Speaker E
That that isn't the case.
Speaker E
So I don't think the government is as pressed in terms of, you know, whether or not the bills will pass.
Speaker E
But it is a amount a certain amount of time.
Speaker E
And what does the government want to be talking about over the summer going into the fall?
Speaker E
We're going to see that in May and June.
Speaker A
Mel, thoughts on silly season.
Speaker D
Yeah, silly season.
Speaker D
I'm glad I no longer on the hill for silly season.
Speaker D
But, uh, I, I would say, I think the government needs to start passing some stuff.
Speaker D
And start delivering on some of their strategies that they've introduced but not necessarily move the needle on.
Speaker D
I think that's what you're going to have to start seeing, particularly if they've got, you know, the ability to reconstitute.
Speaker D
Reconstitute, thank you, the francophone and me was putting the wrong accents there.
Speaker D
Um, committees and has a little bit more room to do what they want, uh, in the house.
Speaker A
Fred, do you think they need to put the pedal to the metal as it were?
Speaker A
If, uh, the electoral circumstances allow it?
Speaker F
Absolutely, they need to get things, uh, through the house.
Speaker F
They need to pass legislation.
Speaker F
It took, uh, up until, uh, about a month ago, only one bill had passed the house.
Speaker F
Uh, in Parliament as a whole.
Speaker F
So, um, they seem to have that goodwill now with the other parties.
Speaker F
There seems to be things moving constructively.
Speaker F
Um, but at the end of the session, I think it'll be helpful to their narrative to show, okay, we passed this legislation.
Speaker F
And now it's going to impact Canadians this way.
Speaker A
Mel, so much of the Liberal pitch of Mark Carney's pitch.
Speaker A
Was predicated on Canada's relationship with the United States.
Speaker A
Carney did say a couple times during the election campaign that we were going to win this trade war.
Speaker A
I do not know that anyone would argue that Canada is winning right now.
Speaker A
Um, how big a concern does the state of affairs with the US need to be for Mark Carney right now?
Speaker D
I think, I think to Fred's point of the shovels in the ground.
Speaker D
I think folks still, or not, I think when we look at polling.
Speaker D
We see that people still have a lot of trust in Mark Carney.
Speaker D
They still have a lot of empathy for him.
Speaker D
Uh, because he's dealing with somebody who's so unpredictable.
Speaker D
I don't know that anybody is expecting anything differently right now.
Speaker D
And when they see him traveling internationally and making those deals internationally, they're saying, okay.
Speaker D
We elected the guy to do this.
Speaker D
He's doing this.
Speaker D
Um, and he was the right person to do those things.
Speaker D
But if he is not, like, if he is not able to show how that help is impacting people on a day-to-day basis.
Speaker D
Or getting to them in a real way.
Speaker D
Um, I think that's when you start seeing the, the, the things.
Speaker D
I think that's when you start seeing folks lose, uh, trust in the Prime Minister.
Speaker D
Um, and I think that's also why you're seeing him every now and then he talks about something affordability.
Speaker D
When we saw, uh, the announcement on the GST.
Speaker D
That was not a natural thing for him to be talking about.
Speaker D
But we saw, you know, a focus on, um, help for people.
Speaker D
I think the more he does that, the more he insulates himself.
Speaker D
But that's not a natural place for him.
Speaker D
He, you know, he's usually talking about reinforcing our economy.
Speaker D
Investing in our industry.
Speaker D
So the, the risk there is that eventually people are going to start to say, you've announced a lot of cool stuff.
Speaker D
My bills are still too expensive.
Speaker D
My job is less secure because of what's happening with the United States.
Speaker D
At what point do we start trusting you that you're on the right path and you're doing the right things?
Speaker D
I think there's still some time to go to that.
Speaker D
And frankly, I don't think that there is, like, a real opposition leader right now taking him to task on, on that affordability.
Speaker D
Uh, angle, so he's got a little bit of room to breathe.
Speaker D
But I do think the longer it takes to start showing people, and it may not be as it relates to the US.
Speaker D
But I think it needs to be as it relates to one of the relationships that he's building.
Speaker D
The, the less trust people are going to have with him.
Speaker D
And that's when things are going to start to turn.
Speaker A
Greg, do, um, look, the amount of international travel he's doing is extraordinary.
Speaker A
The times are extraordinary, what Canadians have asked him to do.
Speaker A
In terms of, you know, rebalancing our trade relationship.
Speaker A
You can understand how it fits in with the, the perceived mandate.
Speaker A
But is there a danger there, is there a tipping point where he's, um, you know, this work on finding trade deals turns into like too much jet setting?
Speaker A
Becomes a political liability.
Speaker D
Totally.
Speaker E
There's, um, the aspect of his international travel is aided by the fact that it seems to be very well thought out.
Speaker E
And well received wherever they go.
Speaker E
Um, you know, somebody who had, um, reported from China from a, for a long time.
Speaker E
Uh, is now back in North America.
Speaker E
Told me the very fact that the, the way the invitation was given by China.
Speaker E
Was their indication that that trip was going to go well.
Speaker E
Um, but you're right, and I mean, if you start to lose the mood of the room.
Speaker E
You, you can, you know, end up in danger.
Speaker E
But I will, there, there's an interesting thing with the Prime Minister where, um, there'll be, you know.
Speaker E
There's an international trip or a deal and then there'll be something with the premier of Alberta.
Speaker E
This week we saw something with the premier of Ontario.
Speaker E
Um, but you will also have, um, you know, some pride in Canada.
Speaker E
One of our legends in terms of, uh, of culture, Joni Mitchell was recognized at the Juno Awards.
Speaker E
And it was our Prime Minister who presented that to her.
Speaker E
I think, you know, there's a lot of pride in that.
Speaker E
And the, I, I think he's, he's been a lot better at the political partisan things.
Speaker E
That I think even people like myself when we were hearing in the fall of 204, he spoke to caucus.
Speaker E
You know, there was a question about whether or not he would get that aspect.
Speaker E
He, he really gets it.
Speaker E
And when he adds a bit of humor and a human touch to it.
Speaker E
I, I think he's done a very good job in terms of covering as, as many of the bases as, as possible as you can do.
Speaker E
I think the one challenge, though, Catherine, is he's, he is only one person.
Speaker E
And when you have a very, you know, person-dependent brand, as Liberals saw with Justin Trudeau.
Speaker E
Um, you have to have, you know, some, some long-term planning.
Speaker E
And I always refer to the Cretchen cabinet where he had people on the right of the Liberal Party, people at the left.
Speaker E
There was something for everyone there.
Speaker E
Um, it's, it's not a great time to, to sort of to build out.
Speaker E
You know, the, the, to showcase the team for, for the sake of showcasing him.
Speaker E
Um, but again, he is only one person.
Speaker E
That's a lot of travel.
Speaker A
Uh, Mel, I mean, I have to, I already used up my, that's wild.
Speaker A
A few minutes ago on Terbon.
Speaker A
But what is happening in Quebec provincial politics is remarkable.
Speaker A
When somebody told me the other day that they thought the Liberals really had a shot.
Speaker A
And I thought, didn't the provincial Liberals like just have a scandal?
Speaker A
What is, what do you make of all this?
Speaker D
Absolutely.
Speaker D
And with the popular Quebec Liberal, right?
Speaker A
With Pablo Rodriguez, yes.
Speaker D
Pablo Rodriguez was, you know, seen as somebody big entering provincial politics.
Speaker D
That could change things for the Liberals, and how funny that the things.
Speaker D
Things changed for the Liberals once, once he was out the door.
Speaker D
I, I will say that I think the reason that things have changed for, um, the, the PLQ in Quebec.
Speaker D
Is because of that referendum question.
Speaker D
It's because of that separatism.
Speaker D
I think there's a lot of folks in Quebec who don't necessarily want to see that happening.
Speaker D
And then instead of putting their vote behind the PLQ, they're, they're, I think, supporting the Liberals as a, as a response to that.
Speaker A
I think, is it not also just about the, um, intensity of the PQ leader?
Speaker A
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Speaker D
I, I think so, uh, I, I worked for Jagmeet and we had quite a few, uh, not so awesome interactions with him.
Speaker D
So, so I, I totally appreciate why that, that is something that, that could be seen for a lot of Quebecers.
Speaker D
Who do not see themselves represented in his version of Quebec.
Speaker D
So I think absolutely that could definitely be something that's impacting too.
Speaker A
Uh, and, you know, Greg, all of these things always interesting in terms of the federal consequences too.
Speaker A
What do you think, uh, about Fred's pick?
Speaker E
It's, it's interesting, I mean, there's a couple of lessons there about, um, leaders picking their time to go.
Speaker E
And I, I think everyone needs to take a look at, you know, when Frank McKenna left provincial politics.
Speaker E
He had, he had established a deadline for how long he wanted to be in and and he, he left, you know, according to that deadline.
Speaker E
Um, you know, you look at the premier of Quebec, you know, incredibly popular.
Speaker E
Um, you know, Teflon was used to describe him.
Speaker E
And and now not so much.
Speaker E
So do we see an example there, we saw this, um, you know, when you do a quick leadership, sometimes it works.
Speaker E
Doug Ford taught us that.
Speaker E
Look, look what happened since.
Speaker E
Look at the federal Liberals.
Speaker E
As as Mel kind of alluded to.
Speaker E
Um, what will actually happen there?
Speaker E
But I will say that like Quebec Liberals feel like the wind is in their sails.
Speaker E
That the, the circumstances and how the province has responded to the change of Liberal leaders.
Speaker E
Uh, has been, um, they're, they're very happy with that.
Speaker E
They think it's going their way.
Speaker A
Politics in this country, folks, never boring.
Speaker A
Uh, very grateful.
Speaker A
And you know what else is never boring?
Speaker A
The political pulse.
Speaker A
So I'm so happy that I got to spend some time with you guys today.
Speaker A
Thank you so much to our political pulse panel.
Speaker A
Greg McKern, Melanie Riche, and Fred Delori.
Speaker A
You can watch them every Friday night.
Speaker A
Right here on Power and Politics.
Speaker A
I am Catherine Cullen.
Speaker A
Thank you so much for watching this special holiday edition of Power and Politics.
Speaker A
There's more CBC News to follow right here on CBC News Network.
Speaker A
Stay tuned.
Topics:NDPAvi LewisCanadian politicsPower and PoliticsCBC Newsfederal electionprogressive policiesparty leadershippolitical strategyparty divisions
