YouTube Video — Transcript

Detailed trading commentary analyzing price action, setups, and market behavior with real-time Twitter insights.

Ask about this video. Answers come from its transcript only — with the timestamp, so you can check them.

Generated from the transcript and can be wrong — check the timestamp.

Key Takeaways

Outside days with down closes often lead to choppy price action and require careful analysis of trading ranges.
Key price levels and fair value gaps provide tradable opportunities but require precise timing and context.
Smart money often uses liquidity above buy stops to induce short positions before pulling back to range midpoints.
Trading choppy markets demands patience and understanding of probability rather than relying solely on indicators.
Live commentary and timestamped analysis can enhance trader education and decision-making.

What the video covers

The video provides a detailed commentary on intraday trading setups and price action analysis shared live on Twitter.
It explains the concept of an outside day with a down close and its implications for trading strategies.
The presenter walks through hourly, five-minute, and one-minute charts to illustrate key price levels and market behavior.
Focus is given to specific price points such as 39.33¼, 38.72¼, and 38.55, highlighting their significance in trade setups.
The video discusses the importance of understanding trading ranges, fair value gaps, and liquidity zones.
A key trade setup between 3 PM and 4 PM New York time is outlined, demonstrating how smart money uses buy-side liquidity to trigger short positions.
The presenter emphasizes the value of studying the middle of the daily range for better trade decisions.
The commentary includes reflections on the challenges of trading choppy, listless markets and how to anticipate price moves.
There is a focus on transparency and timestamped analysis to help viewers follow the logic and timing of trades.
The video also addresses criticism and competition in trading communities, advocating for logic and narrative over mere technical indicators.

Chapters

What is an outside day and why is it important in this video?

An outside day is when the price range exceeds the previous day's high and low, closing lower. It often signals choppy price action and sets the stage for specific trading strategies discussed in the video.

How does the presenter use Twitter in relation to the trading commentary?

The presenter provides live, timestamped trading insights and analysis on Twitter throughout the trading day, allowing followers to study setups and market behavior in real time.

What is the significance of the 3 PM to 4 PM New York time window mentioned?

This time window marks a specific trade setup where smart money uses buy-side liquidity to initiate short positions, leading to a pullback toward the middle of the daily trading range.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

All right, folks, welcome back. It's going to be a short little commentary on basically what I went with today, giving commentary through Twitter. You're welcome to go over my Twitter feed and go through it. It's a lot because I was going all day long with it.

Speaker A

And I was kind of walking people through their own charts to kind of get a better feel for what to expect and where the real setup was going to be for today. Before I get into all that, just know

Speaker A

that everything that I said is time and date stamped so that way there's no time for worry about it, and only the diligent are going to want to go through something like this. And I put the readers on Twitter

Speaker A

through the meat grinder today. I literally took them through every minor fluctuation, explained why it should do this and should do that, and ultimately setting up way before it happened. The three o'clock to four o'clock short, I outlined it in

Speaker A

detail, gave the reasons why it should take place. Everything's there, and everything I'm going to say in short highlight here is obviously found in the tweets. So we have an outside day here yesterday, big down closed day. An outside day is a day that's higher

Speaker A

than the previous day and lower in the previous day's low. So here's previous day's high, it went higher, his previous day's low, it went lower. So all of this range is outside of the previous day's range, and it closed down.

Speaker A

When this happens, there's typically this type of price action formation, but it's really included with the odds in your favor if you're trading down to an old low but fall short of it. Okay, this is usually where that double bottom idea comes in,

Speaker A

and it feels safe to, if you're trading like me, look for a run through that old low. But if they stop it short, it tends to be a choppy day, especially if we have an outside day with down close.

Speaker A

So let's go into an hourly chart. All right, so here's the price action for today. We're going to look inside this little tiny little fractal right here, and I can zoom in here. All right, so we have old highs in here. If you look at the

Speaker A

high here, it comes in at 39 33 and a quarter. I mentioned that level today, mentioned it a few times that we were going to trade up to that, and I built the idea that looking at price, studying in the way

Speaker A

that I teach it, it would be very easy to fall victim in this type of trading day, whereas choppy, it's listless trading back and forth, and how to anticipate it, what to look for. And I want to go into the

Speaker A

five-minute chart real quick. Okay, and here's a five-minute chart, and I want to add some annotations here. So here is the 33 and a quarter level. That's why that level was mentioned in the tweets. This is the low at 38 72 and a quarter

Speaker A

and the old low on the daily chart that did not get traded through is at 38.55. And notice we just fell short of reaching that at 38.56. So we went one handle short of that, started trading higher, and I mentioned how

Speaker A

the market many times can present opportunities that look like it's likely to form a setup, but it really doesn't really come to fruition. And if you look at the range here, okay, I'm highlighting [Music] this theory that you got right there.

Speaker A

Okay, how we traded up into it, started working lower, created a small little fair value gap in here, bumped into that, traded lower. Nothing really in here to work with in terms of the model, so nothing here is a short. We were talking

Speaker A

about all that this morning. So as the market was trading around in this area, I mentioned how it was likely to be a 50-50 probability. That means it's likely to go higher just as well as it is likely to trade

Speaker A

lower. Okay, so what's the benefit in that? Obviously, anybody can come into it with a 50-50 expectation, but it really statistically moves to 50-50 when we start trading back into the middle of the range. Okay, so

Speaker A

this imbalance here, the fair value gap, it should have offered a little bit more movement lower. Why wouldn't it go down and take out this short-term low? It went below this short-term low here and then started rallying, working towards the

Speaker A

relative equal highs over here. I mentioned early on that it would go to 39 33 and a quarter. That's where it would go, but I favored, in other words, in terms of bias for the longer term, I favored

Speaker A

the 38.55 level down here for sell side. I don't think that they're done with it down there, but we have to take every single trade idea based on its current dealing ranges. And what's a dealing range? Well, dealing

Speaker A

range would be like from this high down to that low, and we measure those. Yes, it trades up into that imbalance and trades down to a short-term low. That's a tradable opportunity there, but it's not very clear

Speaker A

after that. It just goes back and forth chopping. Short-term lows are taken, high high is taken here. We trade back and forth. All of this is really ugly type of price action, and I mentioned that we would go to, you

Speaker A

know, 39 33 and a quarter back here, and it ran right up into it, cleared those relative equal highs, broke down, traded back down into the range, and I started talking about how the real setup that would be formed

Speaker A

by my content, by the things that make sense in the algorithm, would deliver a specific framework today. I told everybody on Twitter you can go back and look at it to take a vertical line and add it to

Speaker A

three o'clock New York local time and four o'clock, and that would be the setup that forms to take us back down into [Music] the middle of the range. Now, I tell everyone in the tweets to study the middle of the daily range. Okay, so

Speaker A

what does that mean? If you look at what the high was and the low, okay, right in here, if that's the middle of the range, we ran above the short-term high, so we have relative equal highs here and

Speaker A

relative equal highs here. So there's buy-side resting here. I outlined how the market would use the running up to take out the buy stops to squeeze anybody that was short and trail their stop-loss down and also to induce people into thinking

Speaker A

it's going to go higher so that way it builds up liquidity below these lows. What kind of liquidity? Sell-side liquidity, because they're going to protect their long positions. But the main thing was focusing on the middle, middle of the range here.

Speaker A

So if we're looking for setups that are going to be based on a run above for buy side and pull back into the range, it needs to be specific in terms of time. I gave a very specific window between

Speaker A

three o'clock and four o'clock in the afternoon. So we go into an out—uh, I'm sorry, I'm an hour. We're going to go into a minute chart. Okay, and you can see here the market rallies above, bumps into the buy-side liquidity.

Speaker A

Smart money uses that to go short. This is exactly what I outlined beforehand. It's all in the tweets. It's not ambiguous. It's very specific. I tell you exactly when the trade is going to form. I tell you exactly how it's going to happen. I'll

Speaker A

tell you the framework, the logic, the narrative, everything. It's going to pull back to the middle of the range. Here is the breakdown here. Let me take this. Is this a swing low? Yes. Is this a fair value gap?

Speaker A

Yes. Does it trade back up into that range? Yes. It works lower back into the middle of the range. Let me put this back where I want. Okay, and if I add the annotations, you can see right there.

Speaker A

I sold short at 39.40 and three quarters, and I took four of them off at 39.08 and three quarters, middle of the range. And you can see there still is a position there with partials taken off already, and

Speaker A

the limit order down here at 38.55. It doesn't matter if it goes down there now. I don't care, but I have a position in play should it do so. And I want everyone to understand that there are people out there, obviously, who want

Speaker A

to say stupid things because they either want to get a rise out of me or they feel that they're competition and they want to get, you know, a lot more attention for themselves. Honestly, you know,

Speaker A

if you want to build the tension around yourself, just do things that put people's attention placed on you. But for anyone that obviously did not spend time with me today, this is going to be rather b

Speaker A

walked through all of the things that days like this where it's choppy okay where it's just going back and forth back and forth this was not read wrong i purposely took everybody in to the marketplace through their own chart and told them to think

Speaker A

about what was going on in their own mind what other traders would be thinking so that way you could really capture what it feels like to be in there looking for your own setups and try to think critically about it

Speaker A

i outline in advance where the setup based on the things i teach up here where it runs the buy stops we pair with that and then pull back to the middle range and it does so beautifully all of this in here is really hard

Speaker A

choppy price action it's very very difficult to trade in those types of ranges because they can come back on you stop you out and just go nowhere for a long period of time so if you know what you're looking for in

Speaker A

terms of what the algorithm is going to do and the algorithm on days like this this is called a consolidation day and what happens is this the market starts trading creates an initial range and then stays in that range until

Speaker A

the afternoon at three o'clock it used to be the bond close that started this whole thing but now it's just three o'clock at four o'clock when equities close the closing bell that sets the tone for on close orders

Speaker A

so what that means is what was going on prior to three o'clock the market was rallying up what did it go up for the buy side liquidity but traders gonna look at that as a breakout to go higher

Speaker A

and they're going to pair that with the market participants that are considered smart money so that's exactly what i outlined this is exactly what transpired everybody in the twitter feed we're following along i mean granted there were a few people and

Speaker A

you can go through and see who they were they weren't really paying attention because they came into the conversation late and i went a long day today just tweeting between tweeting uh what you don't know is i had my son sitting

Speaker A

next to me and i'm outlining things to him and i'm explaining what she takes but should take place rather in the marketplace plus i'm also sending out tweets so my mind was divided between all of that so it was very difficult not only to

Speaker A

predict what you all were thinking and thinking about what should be transpiring in price action plus literally walking through with my son what to anticipate expect and see in price action and through his lens uh he was actually executing in a live account

Speaker A

uh he has his amp account linked right through trading view so you can trade directly right from the chart so he's plugging away on my laptop right next to me and his account was able to grow from six thousand

Speaker A

dollars at the beginning of the week now it said ten thousand dollars that's real money that's live money and you know when i when i hear about people that say the stuff that i teach doesn't work or if i can't call the market and when

Speaker A

people sit there and they spend the entire day with me and i outline everything and i outlined this very specific trade here way before it even forms before the market even went up there i'm explaining all that that it went right to where i said it

Speaker A

was going to go run the stops then sync it back down the middle of range go back and look at the tweets i can't edit them and i'm not deleting anything okay so if i make a mistake a spelling error you're

Speaker A

just gonna have to deal with it because you know i don't want any deleted tweets zero so if you'd like to follow me and all that stuff just save everything and save it all i don't care the point is i want you to save them as

Speaker A

what exactly what i said the last time i was on twitter save my tweets save them because you're gonna see things that prove obviously what i'm talking about it proves that i have the visibility that i can see these things

Speaker A

beforehand and there's a lot of people out there that will just not want to put the work into learning this because it seems too hard they just want to put an indicator on the chart and you know that's all i want give me a

Speaker A

macd give me a stochastic moving average and we'll call it a day but they don't give you logic and narrative they just give you a crunching of the numbers and that type of thing isn't in my opinion not very beneficial because

Speaker A

you're you're beating up the data of price action versus reading and understanding what the tape is and that's exactly what i was doing today with everybody on twitter so uh there is an application that i was made aware of on twitter that allows

Speaker A

someone to do i think if i'm not mistaken they call them a space or spaces or if i said that wrong forgive me i'm not going to edit this video but apparently there's something on the twitter app that you can kind of like

Speaker A

talk and i think it's just audio where you just talk and people that are i guess following you on twitter they can hear you talk so i guess i'm in a way it could be like an ict squawk box

Speaker A

you know i can kind of like talk out loud about what i'm looking at what i think is useful it's not a trade setup obviously or a signal service type thing because that's not what i do i know i don't do

Speaker A

those things so we were studying price action together over my shoulder through tweets and uh this was the move i was outlining well in advance early in the day i was setting the stage for all this back and

Speaker A

forth motion that they're going to drive it higher to squeeze out traders that were already short from previous day and trailer stop loss right above the old high back here they bumped it here on a very shallow run let me take this off

Speaker A

they bumped it on the let me take everything actually these relative equal highs as it dropped down they trailed their stop-loss those that are short so they ran out and bumped it on a shallow basis and then one more time

Speaker A

they ram it up in there and clear them out real nice so the logic i was teaching was that would be utilized for smart money at the close between three o'clock and four o'clock so they ran it up there

Speaker A

all the buy orders that were resting above here are here in the form of protecting short stops or not short stop short positions acting as their stop-loss order when the market trades above that those buy stops that are protective in nature

Speaker A

they become a rushing liquidity wave okay of willing buyers at the market so willing buyers at the market at three o'clock on a day like this where it's consolidated it's going to want to go back to the middle of the range and that's why i

Speaker A

posted until we did study the middle of range of today's range okay so when you look at that type of event it's going to range bound trade between here's the 9 30 or so right there okay so the low of the day there

Speaker A

and the high the day there so split that in the middle there's your midpoint and it's going to want to gravitate back to that so when you look at price action days like this and if you're caught up in it you know

Speaker A

what you're doing or you feel like it's just being chopped up wait until three o'clock because many times at three o'clock to four the algorithm will do something where it goes outside the bounds of the daily range like it did here

Speaker A

okay it trades up into it and then rams it down and nobody's really allowed to make any money anyone that was long freaking out here gets raped across the coals anyone that's short gets knocked out with a stop loss and then a losing position

Speaker A

and most of the time traders are too afraid to go in here going short where people that like myself i outlined today in the front of you know 20 000 people they all seen it they all watched me

Speaker A

call it and there it is there's my phil there's the middle of the range partial and i got two in float and just for the sake of completeness i'm just going to take one of them off while i'm doing this

Speaker A

recording so that way i don't have to worry about it at all you can go to my stop and or go to my limit and either one's fine by me i don't care okay so i'm going to try to do a

Speaker A

little bit of tomorrow's session i'm not going to spend the entire day obviously because i have other things that take care of but i've scheduled in today because i had to work with my son and his analysis and learning all that stuff so

Speaker A

i was very proud to see him pushing the button on his account he did very very well had one or two uh hairy moments where he wasn't thinking like i was hoping he'd be thinking and had a losing trade

Speaker A

was able to recoup that and push this account to over ten thousand dollars so i'm very proud to uh see him engaging and doing his own thing and trying to figure out this stuff on his own so yeah i think

Speaker A

we'll talk a little bit through that twitter application tomorrow i don't know how long ago but uh we'll see what we get from that and i think that's going to be it for this one until i'll talk to you next time be safe

Topics:trading commentaryprice actionoutside dayfair value gapliquidityintraday tradingtrading setupsmarket analysisTwitter tradingchoppy market

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