Speaker A
All right, folks, welcome back. This is episode number 10 of the 2022 ICT mentorship for the YouTube channel. This lecture is going to be teaching implementing economic calendar events with the open.
Episode 10 of the 2022 ICT mentorship covers using economic calendar events to trade stock indices and understanding daily bias through price action.
Ask about this video. Answers come from its transcript only — with the timestamp, so you can check them.
Generated from the transcript and can be wrong — check the timestamp.
Key Takeaways
- Economic calendar events significantly impact market volatility and should be closely monitored.
- Price action and daily bias analysis are crucial for anticipating market moves and managing trades.
- Understanding premium and discount zones helps identify potential market rebalancing points.
- Imbalances in price create opportunities for re-entry and continuation trades.
- Consistent study and practice of these concepts are essential for successful speculation.
What the video covers
- Introduction to using economic calendar events for trading and their impact on market volatility.
- Importance of monitoring economic calendars like ForexFactory for high, medium, and low impact news events.
- Explanation of how news events act as catalysts causing price movements before and after their release.
- Discussion on daily bias and how to interpret price action to predict market direction.
- Detailed analysis of the NASDAQ daily chart using TradingView to illustrate concepts like Power Three and market equilibrium.
- Explanation of premium vs discount market zones based on daily range and equilibrium levels.
- Concept of imbalances in price action and how they influence market rebalancing before continuation.
- Emphasis on studying price action over time to understand market behavior rather than relying on secret methods.
- Mentor’s approach to teaching students about daily bias, trade setups, and managing expectations.
- Encouragement to combine economic calendar awareness with technical analysis for better trading decisions.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction to Economic Calendar and Market Speculation
- 04:41Understanding Indecisive Candles and Discount Market Zones
- 08:56Premium vs Discount Market and Imbalance Concepts
- 13:11Accumulation of Shorts and Trade Entry Strategies
- 17:07Market Behavior Near Daily Range Extremes
- 20:50Teaching Daily Bias with Power Three Framework
- 28:53Statistical Odds and Money Management in Trading
- 32:47Live Mentorship Insights and Real-Time Chart Analysis
- 41:17Managing Expectations and Long-Term Trading Mindset
- 45:52Market Manipulation and Price Expansion Strategies
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
looking at this but it's important if you're going to be learning how to speculate study these markets certainly if you're ever going to consider putting live funds in you really want to know what this calendar says for the day you're going
Speaker A
All right, so the economic calendar, many of you probably don't even consider looking at this, but it's important if you're going to be learning how to speculate, study these markets. Certainly, if you're ever going to consider putting live funds in, you really want to know what this calendar says for the day you're going to be trading. Otherwise, you could be surprised, unfortunately, adversely, with a sudden rush of volatility that you wouldn't otherwise expect.
Speaker A
indices but most of them are and what I'm showing here is what I teach all my students I go to forexfactory.com I use their economic calendar it's not the only one you can use it's whatever you like I like the color scheme they use
Speaker A
This is Thursday's economic calendar for Thursday, February 17th, and not all of these things are going to be heavy hitters for stock indices, but most of them are. What I'm showing here is what I teach all my students. I go to forexfactory.com. I use their economic calendar. It's not the only one you can use; it's whatever you like. I like the color scheme they use.
Speaker A
shown here here would be like a high impact news driver so when we look at these stock indices the reason why I teach you 8:30 in the morning like that's your beginning time to start looking at or crosshairs time the news embargo lifts
Speaker A
It's just a personal preference. You can pick any economic calendar. They're all going to pretty much say the same thing. Here, the medium impact events are like orange, low impact are yellow, and anything that's red, which is not being shown here, would be like a high impact news driver.
Speaker A
used as a catalyst to have price go up or down at the time of their release other instances like I'm going to teach tonight usually there's going to be a buildup or a dropping down in price right before the report comes out and
Speaker A
So when we look at these stock indices, the reason why I teach you 8:30 in the morning, like that's your beginning time to start looking at or crosshairs time, the news embargo lifts at this time. At 8:30, typically, there's a bunch of news events that are being ushered into the marketplace at that time.
Speaker A
one we've been working with in this mentorship so the daily chart when I'm talking about power three a lot of comments came in the previous video mentioning how it was confusing to them because obviously they're they're new they just found me they don't know what
Speaker A
Now, some of these reports or speeches or data points, they may be used as a smokescreen. They may be used as a catalyst to have price go up or down at the time of their release. Other instances, like I'm going to teach tonight, usually there's going to be a buildup or a dropping down in price right before the report comes out, and then the real move starts to ensue.
Speaker A
understanding about daily bias because if I could tell you what was the most requested question over the years since I've been mentoring people without a doubt absolutely without a doubt the number one question I get is ICT can you please
Speaker A
Okay, so it'll make more sense as I get into the actual teachings. Okay, so we're looking at the NASDAQ daily chart. This is the TradingView continuous chart. That way, you'll know what I'm looking at here. It's the one we've been working with in this mentorship.
Speaker A
do it any easier than this okay you just have to study price action and you'll see it for yourself after a while but this is really all I teach my students and it is nothing more secret to it it's
Speaker A
So the daily chart, when I'm talking about Power Three, a lot of comments came in the previous video mentioning how it was confusing to them because obviously they're new. They just found me. They don't know what I'm talking about when I say Power Three. I actually have a teaching in the YouTube channel, so you can look it up and study it, but I'll give you a little bit more amplification here, also kind of like help bridge the gaps in your understanding about daily bias.
Speaker A
range we were within and the 50 level was equilibrium so again above equilibrium is what the premium market and Below 50% is a discount market so we traded back up into the top end of the range between this low and this high and
Speaker A
Because if I could tell you what was the most requested question over the years since I've been mentoring people, without a doubt, absolutely without a doubt, the number one question I get is, "ICT, can you please teach me the daily bias? Can you tell me if it's going to be an up day or a down day?"
Speaker A
episode you haven't watched that one yet and you're watching this one it's going to feel like even more confusion but we had an indecisive candle here and we were in a discount even though I believe and I've been
Speaker A
And I'm going to teach you here, and this is my honest-to-God's truth. Okay, I'm never going to be able to do it any easier than this. Okay, you just have to study price action, and you'll see it for yourself after a while. But this is really all I teach my students, and there is nothing more secret to it. It's this. This is it.
Speaker A
to do what go back up and rebalance this before going back down listen to what I said in the episode number nine I said even if we trade back up into this range there's trades you can take even if we
Speaker A
Okay, it's just the brass tax of looking at what the daily range is likely to form. So right away, we're at the daily chart, and as I mentioned in the previous episode, I outlined this high here and this low, and that was the range we were within, and the 50 level was equilibrium.
Speaker A
not I'm not doing that in the community tab on my YouTube channel probably once a week I'm going to point out something in the chart right before it happens and I want you to try to study it you may not be able to see it real
Speaker A
So again, above equilibrium is what the premium market is, and below 50% is a discount market. So we traded back up into the top end of the range between this low and this high and between these two levels here. Remember, I gave you this low and this high. That's an imbalance.
Speaker A
date and time reference in the post I forget I I try to remember doing it when I wake up if I'm going to post anything but something happens and I see in the chart and I Hur most I want to
Speaker A
Okay, it's a fair value gap. This market was down in a discount initially after we had the indecisive candle. Go back and watch the ninth episode. If you haven't watched that one yet and you're watching this one, it's going to feel like even more confusion. But we had an indecisive candle here, and we were in a discount, even though I believe, and I've been telling my own students that I believe we're going to clean out these lows down here.
Speaker A
then we have this imbalance and we have a bias that and it's likely to go down and take out these lows so what have we said here in short the Market's been going lower yes we took out some sell
Speaker A
We went to a discount relative to the daily range between this high and that low. So below it, we're at discount, and we have an imbalance, so it's likely to do what? Go back up and rebalance this before going back down.
Speaker A
breaks down and it creates an imbalance when it takes out this shortterm low wow that's kind of like the model I'm teaching you yes now what's the framework here we rallied broke below a short-term low with the model suggesting
Speaker A
Listen to what I said in episode number nine. I said even if we trade back up into this range, there are trades you can take even if we believe that it's going to go below those lows. That's me tipping my hand to you. I'm not trying to provide you signals. I'm not going to tell you buy here, sell here, put your stop here, take your—I'm not doing that.
Speaker A
much then the next day we open we rall just a little bit and then plunge we took out the previous day low and the day before it's low so both of these daily lows have been cleaned out now this one is the next
Speaker A
In the community tab on my YouTube channel, probably once a week, I'm going to point out something in the chart right before it happens, and I want you to try to study it. You may not be able to see it real time. You may miss it. Come to the YouTube channel after work or whatever. Maybe you're sleeping and you couldn't see it at the time, but still go through your charts using the information I'm providing you.
Speaker A
to go down or maybe you weren't expecting it to go down you just looking at the price in your chart and you see that the open was here it rallied a little bit then it went down and then
Speaker A
I get asked all the time, "Can you please put a date and time reference in the post?" I forget. I try to remember doing it when I wake up if I'm going to post anything, but something happens, and I see in the chart, and I hurt most. I want to put everything in the post, and I forgot it, so I apologize for that. It's a work in progress, folks.
Speaker A
you understand this and you can study a daily chart daily bias will become easier for you if you start implementing it with this mindset so if we're bearish okay if we're bearish on a market we're going to anticipate the daily ranges or
Speaker A
So if we look at the reference points of it being in a premium market or a discount market, but then we have this imbalance, and we have a bias that it's likely to go down and take out these lows.
Speaker A
down and it closes down near its low when it's bearish obviously this would be reversed where the open would be down here near the low and the close would be near the high of the daily candle if it's bullish but not every single candle
Speaker A
So what have we said here in short? The market's been going lower. Yes, we took out some sell stops below this low with the sell-side liquidity being taken out here, then a natural retracement, which is reasonable, then we start the decline, then we come back up one more time, failure swing, doesn't go above that high, and then it breaks down and it creates an imbalance when it takes out this short-term low.
Speaker A
you have these sustained price swings on the higher time frame you're not seeing a lot of up closed candles when it's bearish and you're not seeing a lot of down Clos candles when it's bullish but contrast that with what you
Speaker A
Wow, that's kind of like the model I'm teaching you. Yes. Now, what's the framework here? We rallied, broke below a short-term low with the model suggesting that these lows may be taken out. So any rally or up-close candle or candles should be viewed as a potential shorting candidate.
Speaker A
me I felt that too in the 90s I know what it feels like but let's take a closer look at this this is the chart that I used to trade back in 1992 the classic open high low and close
Speaker A
Now, ring in the imbalance. We traded up into the imbalance one more day. We swept above it, not by much. Then the next day, we open, we rally just a little bit, and then plunge. We took out the previous day low and the day before's low, so both of these daily lows have been cleaned out.
Speaker A
screens for 30 plus years now it's warm them down so obviously candlesticks are a much more preferred way of looking at it because it's thicker you can see the the open and close relationship as I'm teaching you here a lot easier versus
Speaker A
Now, this one is the next one, then down here. So when I talk about Power Three, I'm specifically dealing with this time frame, the daily chart. If you consider where the market opens, say this is the opening price in the daily range, if you're expecting it to go down or maybe you weren't expecting it to go down, you're just looking at the price in your chart, and you see that the open was here, it rallied a little bit, then it went down, and then closed near the low.
Speaker A
rallies up and closes near the high see that same thing here it opens trades down goes up and closes above the opening but in the upper portion of the daily range then we have a high where it doesn't really matter where it closes
Speaker A
Now, that's a rather simplistic overview, just making it very plain, nothing terribly exciting about that. But when you really start to consider it, it is really exciting because this is the market right here. If you understand this and you can study a daily chart, daily bias will become easier for you if you start implementing it with this mindset.
Speaker A
bar if we look at this relationship over here we have this one single pass with that bar range between this candle's low and this candle's High that's our fair value Gap the market can trade back up into it
Speaker A
So if we're bearish, okay, if we're bearish on a market, we're going to anticipate the daily ranges or each one of these candles doing this very thing here: open, a rally, not much of a rally, but it can make a large wick. It doesn't make a difference, but the general premise is it goes up just to go down, and it closes down near its low.
Speaker A
lows to be taken out so the only thing we were doing was coming back up to rebalance this then go lower so once we went back to the top of the range did this candle or bar touch this candle or bars low no just fell
Speaker A
When it's bearish, obviously this would be reversed where the open would be down here near the low and the close wou—
Speaker A
that to potentially happen but I've not abandoned my bearishness for price to go down here all my students know that this movement here we have the open the rally up fade it comes back down and closes on the low that's this pattern
Speaker A
right here power three is accumulation manipulation distribution okay that's the three components the power asset ECT is if you understand those relationships on what the daily range is doing the open on a day that's bearish okay the open and anything above it that is
Speaker A
accumulation of shorts now it's not limited to just open and above that's the that's where smart money and people like myself and my students that's where we're aiming to enter good and short it can be whatever the range is
Speaker A
this is important because my students are actually going to smile when they get this is too the open to the high whatever that range is you take that range and you subtract it from the opening price that is your opening
Speaker A
range that's where your fair value gaps that's where your stop raids are going to happen that's where optimal trade entry is going to happen every potential shorting candidate whatever system approach that I teach even in my paid mentorship every premium array okay okay
Speaker A
that's what I teach it as every single one of them will reside and form in the range between the open and its high in other words if you're watching price and you're bearish the day opens up and then
Speaker A
it rallies up that's a Judah swing the range from the opening price up to that high that range is what you project below the opening price that is your opening range when I say opening range that's opening range so what that does
Speaker A
is gives me a an area at which to bracket out how much leeway I can give the market when it starts to go below the opening price and still take a favorable entry because power three is I'm bearish I'm expecting
Speaker A
the market to open and rally above if I can get something on short there that's the ideal scenario but I may not be able to do it or I may take a trade early or just take a trade and I get stopped out
Speaker A
it's going to happen but then it breaks down below the opening price does that completely ruin the day for me sometimes it it'll just tear off and I can't catch it doesn't give me a setup and I just
Speaker A
miss it and you can't chase it and don't worry about it but don't be upset go back in your back testing and you'll see that there's lots of opportunities coming in just below the opening price this is called close proximity entries
Speaker A
this is what I promised in this mentorship on YouTube teaching you in the mentorship community I already know most of you that have recently found me and there's been a lot of you that just came on I appreciate all of you joining me
Speaker A
but you don't know all the things that I've been teaching on this YouTube channel so you feel like you're drinking from a fire hose right now and it can feel like it's tearing your face off because it's so much information all at
Speaker A
one time and leaves your head spinning like this guy keeps talking I don't understand get to the point the point is you need to have layered understanding and if you're not going to be patient and go through the content properly I'm
Speaker A
not going to help you I'm going to frustrate you and you'll probably come back to me later on and then learn properly and wish you would have stayed in did it the right way the first time but that's for you to determine on your
Speaker A
own having the opening range when you're bearish whatever the high is from the opening project that down your cell setups are going to form in that that is accumulation of shorts the manipulation is the initial rally up that's the sucker play that's
Speaker A
typically the breakout artist thinking oh it's going to go higher no it only goes up just to go down that that's a fake run then it goes lower creates the low of the day and then closes near the
Speaker A
low of the day so between where the low of the day is and where it closes that's distribution what's being distributed smart monies short positions so they're selling at the open and above or just below it riding out the daily range when it
Speaker A
creates the low of the day how do you know when the low of the day is formed well I've taught you time references so if price has been really taking a a beating going lower and you're getting towards the end of
Speaker A
the day like 330 you know 345 something like that it's probably really close to the low not all the time sometimes it creates a real fast sudden continuation and if you're not expecting it or if you're offside it can be bad but if it's
Speaker A
on side it's really fun to be a part of that but generally it's the last portion of the trading day and it'll create some kind of a low and then wherever it closes between that low and where it
Speaker A
closes that's where the distribution cycle is occurring that part is not that important the main thing is understanding what does this candle have the highest probability in terms of forming an open rally sell off and close down on its low or is it likely to
Speaker A
create an opening trade lower first then rally and close near the highs take the let's take the close out okay I don't want you thinking you have to know or be able to predict the closing price that's more advanced you don't even need that
Speaker A
to be profitable you just need to know is this daily range more likely to expand higher or lower than the opening price that's it that's all you have to do that's the key to bias now how do you
Speaker A
know what the bias is going to be most likely not everyday bias most likely what's the bias going to be well let's go back to this low over here it creates a swing low that means a low with a higher low to the right of it
Speaker A
and a higher low to the left of it so it's three candles that make up a swing low you do not need a Williams fractal that's way too many candles and you've missed the move okay you don't need that
Speaker A
no disrespect for the gentleman but that's nonsense you don't need that okay you only need three candles once you get a swing low or swing high and you have the proper context and you know what you're looking for that's it you go in
Speaker A
there you start hunting it now watch what happens we have a swing low form the very next candle we have an opening it trades way down and then comes back up and closes right near the highs is that
Speaker A
the opposite of this candle yeah but it's got a whole lot of movement below the opening price so something just took place down here after this swing low was formed did this candle or bar go lower than that
Speaker A
one no I promise I'm going to switch the candles but I just want to show you from this perspective because this is what we were forced to learn on back in the old days okay back in the dinosaur time
Speaker A
so the rallying up on this candle here and closing on the high that supports this as a swing low because it didn't take out the lower low right here in the middle between this low and this low this is the lowest low of the three
Speaker A
candles or Price bars the next day we have a big wash out from the open trading down and then it closed on the high so the next day we're likely to go what into this area here isn't that a fair value Gap sure sure it
Speaker A
is what's the daily bias likely to be bullish so that means it's going to do the opposite of this it's going to open near the low and then rally and expand higher will it close on the high I don't
Speaker A
know it could but I don't need it to I only need it to open and start to rally and get up in this area here that's an opportunity that's a trade does it do it yes but now when we trade it up into
Speaker A
this area look what happens next day you might be expecting an open rally close High it doesn't give you that so that could be a day where you missed an opportunity or you took a a loss no problem next trading day here what are
Speaker A
we seeing we're seeing the market retrace back down into this run how far can it go down well look at your high down to your low equilibrium it's probably going to go below equilibrium to do what to offer the market a
Speaker A
discount the market does what it goes down below it provides a discount once it gets there our mind we're thinking it's going to be the opposite of this it's going to be to open near the low and expand higher that's power three
Speaker A
it's going to be accumulation of Longs at the low and then rally higher we have it right there it opens near the low rally and closes on the high the next day same thing opens on the low rallies and closes on the high
Speaker A
now we've gone deeper into this area here and in a small little range but it's still the same function of power three accumulation which is open near the low trade down and then close high on the daily range next candle same
Speaker A
thing it opens trades down accumulates Longs trades higher same thing here what's this it opens trades down trades higher until we do what we take out this short-term High see that then we can get a retracement lower or
Speaker A
consolidation we get both small little retracement and consolidation next candle power three delivering for accumulation of Longs next candle consolidation might be a day you took a loss let's be real next candle what's the bias what are these over here
Speaker A
they're relative equal highs there's stops resting above that that's buy side liquidity what's it drawing up to we've already taken out this High what's going to go up to here likely right because we've already taken out sell stops below
Speaker A
here with this drop and we keep proving it's going higher so where's it likely to go above here so until we get to that point we keep thinking the opposite of what we're showing here an open near the
Speaker A
low and close on the high power three accumulation of Longs distribution of Longs at the close the next day indecisive candle okay no big deal next candle we open trade down same thing we're looking for buys the whole time
Speaker A
we're looking for Buys in here you might get stopped out you might have a losing trade but you're not abandoning the bullish bias until we get above these highs then we have to study it does it want to run higher once it clears these
Speaker A
highs does it keep showing and want to go higher well we had a nice run here here the next candle here nice run here small little IND decisive candle there but then we go back in the same cycle
Speaker A
again it's expanding and it's accelerating higher each day we're looking for Longs opening near the low trades below the opening a little bit then rallies and closes near the high that's bias that's sticking to your bias and the same thing is done over here on
Speaker A
opposite we have imbalance here and I promise after this I'll change it to candlesticks your eyes are probably going nuts right now fair value Gap we trade up into it so once we trade into it what are we
Speaker A
expecting the market to do what trade back lower so if we're trading back lower we're going to be looking for this pattern open rally accumulation of shorts distribution at the lows what are you Distributing the short positions they've accumulated above or at the
Speaker A
opening price so in this candle what do we have we have the open it rallies up to go short and then trades down closes on the low just like this this here see that the next candle You're Expecting
Speaker A
the same thing does it deliver that no you might take a loss that day too okay no big deal it's likely to go where here's where the sell side is now each candle open rally close down on low open rally close down on the low
Speaker A
open way back into this one and then still closes lower than the open but still nice range down same thing here opens rallies sells off next candle opens sells off then comes back and overlaps it and now we have a potential
Speaker A
key reversal then we have back and forth price action where you can probably get beat up inbalance it trades up into that and then we go into that area where we're at now so let's go to a Candlestick and it's a lot easier to see
Speaker A
it this way but this function of Power Three is how I teach the bias and I also teach how to submit to the Daily range you have to learn how to hold to the close if you're going to just
Speaker A
trade and you're not really participating in uh the sustained moves that's made available in these daily ranges like today I mean look at this move here that's nice many of you probably took shorts maybe maybe some of you took Longs I got some people putting
Speaker A
comments in the previous video saying you know I saw a pair value up at this price at this time for a bullish it's not bullish we're not bu we're our bias is not bullish it's bearish it's already traded to the top end of that fair value
Speaker A
got and it's likely to go lower now taking out this cell side and attacking the cell side over here okay all right let's drop down to an hourly chart and that fair value Gap the high and the low levels that's what's
Speaker A
being shown here right there and these annotations are obviously from what you saw on the episode 9 so Watch What Happens the market trades down find some support at the low end of the fair value Gap then rallies back up to the high end
Speaker A
of the fair value Gap and then breaks right before midnight on the 17th and then we consolidate trade back up into what what is this what's this right here it's a fair value G price goes up rebalances that there and it's doing it
Speaker A
what time a day not New York it's overnight European London session that's is how you can use that model the same model you can use it in Asian session you ain't going to get a lot of movement CU it's typically not
Speaker A
a lot of movement in that time of day but you can trade it in London clothes you can trade it in obviously the New York open like I'm teaching you and London open London open if you know what
Speaker A
you're doing with a daily bias you can catch enormous moves enormous moves but sometimes you're going to have to weigh out a lot of give and take back and forth kind of like today where the market rebalanced here and then
Speaker A
consolidated waited for a little bit of a push higher then the news came out okay so I'm kind of hopefully clear that up for you now all right 15minute time frame I'm take a look at this imbalance here we
Speaker A
rode up into that rebalancing all this movement down remember that paint roller analogy I gave you the paint was applied to the wall going down but if all this movement was given to that one single candle there's going to be little porous places in
Speaker A
prices between the high and the low where the market wasn't efficiently offered for buyers there wasn't much time and back and forth pricing to give buyers an opportunity to get in there and participate so an efficient market we'll
Speaker A
see the market go back up and repic that so it's down and then right back up like paint being applied to a roller on a wall you want to make sure you go back and forth to deposit the paint evenly so
Speaker A
there's an even distribution so again the background of this chart that's the wall and every one of these candles is a paint roller and whenever you see these big long drawn out candles there's a strong tendency not all the time but
Speaker A
there's a strong tendency for the price to go right back up and overlap over that that entire range same thing over here we have the market drop down creates a fair value Gap here doesn't it take out some lows
Speaker A
over here yes there's displacement and then you can have an order to get in short here but then watch what happens this little pump up that might be scary it could have stopped you out if it went higher that's the risk in this folks I'm
Speaker A
not going to give you a silver bullet that removes losing trades I lose trades too you're going to miss moves I miss moves okay you're going to read it wrong I read it wrong sometimes okay I'm not perfect but I'm giving you tools and
Speaker A
processes to help you determine where the most likely scenario is going to be and then you just work those statistical odds and hopefully with sound money management which I'll cover which will hopefully get you to the Winter Circle
Speaker A
more often than not all right so we have the morning session starting before 8:30 we have a rally up and then it breaks lower in this area here we're going to have to drop down to a lower time frame
Speaker A
but before I do I want to give you a little bit more details think about what I've taught you so far in this teaching for power 3 the accumulation manipulation and distribution cycle of the daily range if we are trading near the high end of that
Speaker A
fair value gap on the daily chart that's what that level is okay when we just drop down to a lower time frame chart so with this 15minute time frame chart and I apologize the chart's a little bit shifted it's still the same chart I just
Speaker A
added the annotations the idea is we're expecting this power three formation where it's open rally create the high of the day sell off and close near the low that's what we're looking for why would that bias be expected on this day because we
Speaker A
worked the upper end of that fair value gap on the daily chart then we had multiple shifts in Market structure bearishly when we already have a bearish bias on the daily chart anyway so it gives you a high probability that this
Speaker A
day is going to be a down close day it may not close on the low it might just be a big down move and that's all you need you just need movement so this level here it's Dash that's the
Speaker A
midnight New York opening price this is what I'm referring to when I'm looking at the opening or power three on a daily chart that price right there at midnight look what's occurring that right there is equivalent to this
Speaker A
little tick on this diagram here it opens it trades above the opening just like that candle does on a daily chart it opens and goes is higher you want to be selling short here why would you want to go short here well it went back up in
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the air and redelivered the down stroke on that paintbrush or or roller on the wall well now it's going back up when it's going up like that it feels unnatural to go short like you don't want to sell short it's like this
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thing's going up why would I want to go in there and go short that's the benefit of studying old data and then reading price studying it real time and without taking any demo trades without trying to pick the you know the targets forget all
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that you want to practice for months reading the tape studying price action watching it even if you have to watch it with trading views Market replay function there's nothing inherently wrong with it if that's all you have and
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you can't watch it live but it is alltogether something different and much more beneficial if you can watch the actual live data so as I mentioned in my own paid mentorship I always counsel my students to if they have the means to do
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so invest in like like I have Cam Asia Camtasia is what I use to make these videos it's through techsmith and techsmith you can Google them it's pretty inexpensive it's easy platform to use and I have had had wonderful results
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with it I don't have any complaints I've done all the upgrades every time they have it it's just really good if you have a job or if you have a business that you're running or if you go to school or if you just got to sleep
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if if the time zones don't line up for you you can set up a recording and just let it record for 8 hours it'll do it and as long as have space in your computer it'll do it and then you can go
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back and literally play that time real time and watch the candle paint unlike trading views replay function where it doesn't give you the EB and flow of the candlesticks forming it's just basically the opening and then a closing of what
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the candle did it's kind of clunky and wooden it doesn't really give you that uh organic feel of the candlesticks actually forming real time whereas if you recorded your screen doing it then here it is don't worry about your screen burn in
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time either uh Camtasia will record the screen if your screen protector comes on and like goes blank it'll still record the screen all right so we're looking at the opening price here and then we're expecting a sell the
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form well here's that fair value got it rallies up into that isn't that a sell above the opening price yep mhm sure is from that opening price to that High that's the highest high take that range and subtract it from the opening price
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that's about in this vicinity here okay right in there so what's occurring well we have this cell here then we have this cell here at the open at the equities opening and then we have this imbalance in here so from this
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Range High to that low multiply that by two as a projection other words whatever that low is to that high that much lower you'll expect to see a short and it forms right here that's exactly what I taught you I did
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not cherry-pick that folks you can go back and look at data as long as you can find data on daily charts okay and if you can get a intraday chart like an hourly chart you'll see it it's there
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but this is a 15-minute time frame that's my bell weather chart that's what I teach all my students this is the one you go to for day trades and or scalps you can find everything for intraday trading on a 15-minute time frame if I
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was held to a decision of what time frame would you be forced to trade with if you had to pick just one ICT the 15-minute time frame because I can I can do anything with that 15minute time frame I can swing trade I can short-term
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trade I can day trade I can scalp but you only need to have one discipline one way of doing it and you might not like the 15minute time frame you might like the one minute chart if you're trading indices but you have to
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have the storyline of the 15-minute time frame to get the full panoramic view of what price is likely to do so with this continued teaching here right below here what's that at sell side liquidity relative equal lows so you can test this
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on your own chart I admitted it by mistake I apologize but the low on this candle here is 14381 even okay don't take my word for it go look at your own chart it's there so 14, 381 I would have preferred to include a
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line projecting that out in time because you'll see in a moment when we drop down the lower time frame but the setups are forming here above the opening price right here near the opening price see that and inside of the range from the
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high to the opening projected down it's in that vicinity there so it's giving you another opportunity so again what's occurred is we went up into that fair value gap on the daily chart we're back on the daily chart
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again and we're anticipating the opening and rallying up into what maybe the high end of that fair value Gap or something forming at the news release at 8:30 but if we look at price price was starting to pump up higher ahead of the 8:30 news
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release so what's that tipping its hand to you telling you they're pricing in a premium Market ahead of the news so they're going to use the news to sink it lower because the bearish bias is going to come into to
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fruition they're going to expand price lower and they've already established their shorts because they accumulated above the opening price and we can see that in the price action of each little short-term rally up like we're looking at here so here's 7:00 in the morning it
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rallies above these relative equal highs and cleans up the imbalance here and look at that right there see that remember what I told you if there's two fair value gaps try to trade it in here but anticipate and use the money
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management to allow for your stock to weather a run up into that and we got it right there now strip it down to what I taught you for the structure of the trade or the framework swing High broken to the
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upside taking out buy stops so buy side liquidity is taken then we have a swing low it's broken did these candles come down lethargically was it like a slow meand or decline no it was sudden it was a lot of momentum it was energetic you
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can't miss those down closed candles right there that's obvious they stand out right so that's how you know you have a shift in Market structure in this area here it doesn't have a fair value Gap that's okay this is only a 5-minute
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chart this is where we started doing a top down strip of 5 minute 4 minute 3 minute 2 minute 1 minute the first fair value G we come to if we find one on a four minute you don't need to go down to
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a three you don't need to go down to a two you don't need to go down to a one if you go down to a four you don't see one you go down to a three if you find
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one there you don't go any lower okay if you don't find one on the five the four or the three and you go down to the two minute and you find it there that's it you don't go down to the
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one minute if you don't find it on a two-minute and you do find it on a one minute then there that's how you trade it but what if you don't have one on the one minute chart you don't have a trade
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how's that for logic so we have the continuation lower off of a retracement in here now this candle the high of it here I wish I would have use a lighter color but this candle's high is right there okay it
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actually goes just above that one right there not by much but it does but we don't need that we don't need that Watch What Happens here's the 4minute chart uh oh something different on this chart ain't it we have bide liquidity
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here the candles are a little bit more beefier when we were looking at the previous slide look at this one look at the candles are look wonky don't they but on this time frame they become much more prominent more beefy much more
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Stout like look at me I'm here take a take a look at me that's what we're looking for we're looking for clean price action where we can see the nice Candlestick formations where we're seeing the even distribution of the price going higher
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or lower in this case going lower but we're seeing that little break where there's not an even distribution of price that's the fair value got so we have that run above byet liquidity after rebalancing over here it goes above it and it breaks down so we
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have an idea okay we could potentially see a a trade short here I like this fair value gy but we also have a little bit of imbalance in here so I want to trade in here but my money management has to permit me to
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weather a run up into this area too remember that that's part of the rules but in here we're going a little bit deeper in my YouTube channel I teach a breaker pattern okay and that is a high a low
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and a higher high that's what this pattern is here and we're seeing that return here so if I see a breaker like this yes I think the market could potentially trade up into here but I'm going to use the breaker's candle and
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just above that for my stop so I'm not going to go way up here or way up in here cuz my Foundation to teaching the ICT breaker is the Market's going to mostly stay in the lower half of the breaker candle
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which is the down down Clos candle rate for the big move up higher taking out a short-term High trust me the breaker is taught in the YouTube channel in other lessons I'm not going to pour myself over top of lessons and regurgitate
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things because there's a lot of you that have been training with me for a long time and you don't want to go through that and the new people that are here I understand your enthusiasm and you want to know everything like a SP I get it
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and I love it but trust me when I tell you that is taught in the free lessons in this YouTube channel okay just remember it's a bearish breaker and that pattern is the support structure of why I would not expect it to have have a
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higher stop up here okay so here's the fair value got range from the low and the high end but it's specifically this candle's low and this candle's high right there extend that out in time look what happens at eight
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28 the candle showing 828 here because it's a 4minute chart but once we're trading inside here all I need to do is trade Above This candle's High I want to be short I don't want to mess around it might not give me
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an opportunity to get in it might not go higher up into that fair value guy I want to use the easiest lowest threshold entry technique to get in to make sure I'm a part of the move then I'm going to be aiming for
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those relative equal lows that's that 14381 level 14381 remember that relative equal lows I said I wish I would have put a line on it this is the time frame I added the line it's the 4-minute chart now if you
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look real close you can see there's a little tiny little arrow right there and a bunch of them over here what that is is trading views paper trading module and I put some short on this today to illustrate what many of
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you have been asking me in trading view comment section A lot of you send me comments through trading View and I apologize I don't get to them a lot because there's a lot of them usually that happen and I just don't get to them
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I'm sorry I'm not purposely trying to ignore you it's like telegram telegram people send me messages there too and I just don't I don't have time to go through it emails absolutely I don't have a whole lot of time to get through
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because everybody wants to write a long story to me and I appreciate them but I just can't I can't sit there all day long and read all that but the idea of showing what a discount broker margin what what
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could I do with that okay I don't recommend it but there are Brokers out there that will allow you to trade the mini contract for just a couple thousand and the micro for less than a 100 bucks and to me that is
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absolutely stupid you're asking to blow the account in these markets you absolutely can have your hinder Parts handed to you in short sudden fashion even me in the last I don't know four weeks or so I've seen moves that
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came back on my stop so fast I was like wow just the other day I watched a 100o Run come out of nowhere in a one minute candle it moved 100 points in the NASDAQ one minute that's a lot of movement man
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so if you're looking at that and you're trying to hold let's say I don't know 16 minis or eight Minis and it moves $2,000 against you in one minute folks your stop would not have been respected it was literally way above
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your stop- loss if you were using one okay so you would have got stopped out with negative slippage and let's say you were holding those eight contracts well let's say you got burned for 50 points in slippage and you don't
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think that's possible oh it's there 50 points just like this that's $1,000 times your eight contracts you just lost $88,000 and you're going to tell me that you can open up an account with a I don't know $10,000 whatever and
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you're going to trade multiple minis because the discount broker allows you to and all of a sudden you just roasted your account in one trade and some wild little price move that came out of nowhere that you didn't
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expect and in one candle one minute candle it just smoked your account just like that there's teachers out there that are promoting the idea that that's a good idea it's not a good idea folks $10,000 that's the absolute minimum and
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I don't think it should be that I think it should be a little bit higher than that I think 15 ,000 is fair for what the NASDAQ is doing right now because just today alone moved 8,000 per for one single
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count contract over $88,000 in movement for one contract now that's you know top to bottom and likck of you being in that move is probably you know obviously not likely but the measure of risk needs to be appreciated and respected and
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unfortunately YouTube makes it a available for anybody to come out here and pretend to know what they're doing and unfortunately if that person isn't skilled if they don't really do what they say they do or or teach proper risk
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or to teach you to respect the level of risk that's required to trade these markets they're doing you a disservice and that's the number one reason why I taught for a long time with a demo and still teach with a demo because number
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one legal reasons I'm not trying to be held liable because I'm not licensed to get trade advice but it's not trade advice in a demo account you're not making or losing anything it's fantasy football with price charts but you can learn how to
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read price action with it this year I've been showing you a live account that's real I'm not teaching through that notice that okay at the end of the year I'm going to share with you what that account has done I'll be 100%
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transparent I will show you line by line every single trade from every single Trading day of every single trading week of every month you'll see it okay throughout the year I'm going to be teaching lessons about certain things
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and you're going to see them applied when I share the entire history with that account so it's more meaningful CU there's a lot of you in the comment sections that are trolling and I I know what you're here for but I'm going to
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give you undeniable proof just like the rest of you that way you can see the lessons I'm giving you yes they worked in demo but they're actually being utilized in live fund trading by me it's after the fact so I cannot be accused of
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giving you trade advice it's what I did with my real money see the difference there it is what it is if you don't like this teaching style there's other people out there teaching all kinds of great stuff doesn't mean it's profitable but
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they got all kinds of neat stuff to look at I'm teaching you how to read price and I need you to be sober minded about the level of risk that these markets provide us because it can take you out
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quickly so I got questioned by I don't know six or seven of the people some of them are actually my students in the mentorship and others are just people that are on the internet you I don't know if they're just YouTube or if
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they're just trading VI you people that try to follow me on there but they asked could I showcase what I would do with a $10,000 hypothetical account if I was using a discount broker in other words a broker
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that would let me trade with I don't know like $2,000 or $1,500 per contract something to that effect for a NASDAQ mini contract number one it was crazy trying to find some of those setups because to frame the risk in it
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and to do Big Lot sizes too was very challenging but I kept it lowend it only took me two weeks to do this but you can see I put a heavy-handed short up here using what I'm teaching you here and then aiming
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for there's relative equal loads which is that 14381 level this is my trading VI account now you're going to hear people say this is photoshopped oh you photoshopped this no I did not I don't need to photoshop this
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in fact my live mentorship with real students that paid me they're going to see me show this live and it's going to move all around it's not edited I'm going to log out of the account and log back in so it's not me doing any kind of
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editing it's not mt4 servers or anything like that you can play around with it's not ninja Trader you can go in there and take a bad trade out make it look good all these things here are executions okay and you can see there's three
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losing trades there on the 14th and where's you can see today's trades all up at the top and that was me doing a heavy-handed a uh Quant style heavy-handed short and then taking partials as it was going down
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into that level of 14381 looking at this this is your classic you know the guy shows you the results okay shows you this is what I did with my demo account they may lie and say it's a real account this is
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clearly a paper trading account you can see it it's there it says it right up here paper trading okay paper trading this is all paper money okay I started the account with trading View at $10,000 okay and that was on February
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3rd just two weeks ago to the day okay so two Thursdays ago I started this and set the account to start with $10,000 then I started trading it and you can see the positions here with just the NASDAQ okay I'm not doing anything
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with like Forex to make it go up I'm not trying to pull out bonds I'm not trying to do anything like that I'm showing you just the NASDAQ starting with $10,000 in two weeks using again the limitations of
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well I guess I don't want to say limitations the pseudo benefit of a discount broker what could I do in two weeks doing that and using what I'm teaching you too that's the difference I'm literally teaching what I'm showing here I just
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showed you the example of it in the chart before this is the equivalent of 582 in 2 weeks now it's hypothetically done in paper trading yes but with the perspective of a hypothetical discount broker margin being used so whereas I'm trading with
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tdmr trade right now and they require me to have almost 20 $2,000 to trade one contract I don't have a problem with that because of the level of volatility that's in there it just makes it easy for me not to worry about it like I'm
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not worried about it I know I got plenty of margin I know I got plenty of equity if I get banged by something come out of nowhere say Russia goes into Ukraine or China invades Taiwan or something crazy
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comes out and it crosses the market to go nuts because I expect that to be coming anytime now it won't smoke my account okay I'm not gonna I'm not going to blow the account I guarantee you this account's
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not blowing okay and I'm showing in my opinion what it would be like for someone if they ever got to the point where they put years into developing their own model now that doesn't mean you can't find profitability before that but after
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you've done it for a while and you found your own niche of what you want to do with the content I'm teaching you you'll find your own Groove and once that's done and you can formulate a well- written
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model on paper where everything is outlined when do you buy when do you sell where do you put your stop at when do you move your stop how many contracts do you trade you know what constitutes a day where you don't take a trade all
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those types of things I will teach you those lessons in this YouTube mentorship okay a lot of you also are very very excited and you're like okay I I see you doing this but I'm not really learning anything new I'm
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disappointed I'm not done you give me those complaints after I say I'm done okay but I'm giving you gold like this is something that you can go out there and turn in these markets and really develop a skill set that could
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completely change your whole entire Direction in your life I'm not promising profitability notice that see that I'm not promising that I'm not promising you a sixf figure income every year I'm not doing that either I'm telling you that
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you will love price action because it repeats it's something that's well it repeats and if you know something's going to repeat it's familiar and things that are familiar are comfortable right now you don't know what these patterns are likely to do
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you're they're unfamiliar to you so it's it's important for you to understand that that's a temporary struggling point but going through the things I'm going to teach you to do here and I'm streamlining it yes this doesn't feel
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like streamlining to some of you you want me to come out here and say this is where you buy this is where you sell you put put your stop loss right here and this is where you take your profits and
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it's always like this every single time wash rinse repeat and it never violates any of those rules and it's just always the same way if you think that way just change this channel right now don't even come back here because that's not
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reality there's going to be similarities that look slightly different than the last few times you took the trade but you will recognize them but my question to you is if you could do this over a year not two weeks would you be impressed
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with yourself if you could do that would you feel that that would be enough some of you young guys don't think that this is enough and it's amazing that type of return is amazing if you can t if you can turn
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that with a live account that's phenomenal like that's that's wealth making there you don't need to be that high to make money but if you can hit that kind of number a year over 12 months hit something like that that's
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amazing and that's not even what I teach my students to expect and I'm not this is not bragging I'm not trying to say look at me I can trade a demo account look at me that's not what I'm doing here folks okay I was
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asked sincerely to show you all hear me telling you and I'm sh I'm showing you it's a paper trading account because I'm not going to go into amp or some other broker that's going to allow me to trade with discount broker
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margins I'm not going to do it I know I know even what I know I'm going to get smoked if I try to do something crazy and heavy-handed because even with me trading one contract I've had moves come
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against me pretty sudden and there was nothing I could have done about it because the volatility is so Fierce right now I'm not afraid of it but I do absolutely respect it so to provide a answer to the guys out there that say that yeah
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you it's stupid to trade in another account where they use the exchange rate margins for initial margins which is right now almost $22,000 for the NASDAQ One Mini contract you need about $222,000 it was about $17,604.13 listen this is for your notes okay if
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they raise the margins that's the exchange tipping their hand to you that huge moves are coming big monstrous moves are coming and they just raised the margins you think that's coincidence it's not big moves are coming and if you're
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offside it's going to get real hot in the Underpants but if you're on side man there ain't nothing sweeter than that that's like winning a lottery and these moves are significant I mean let's go back up for a second okay and I'll close this
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video if you look at the fair value Gap in here okay and say you're filled at 14,515 and you're aiming for 14, 381 is that 6 and a half points no is it 20 no no is it 50 mm- is it
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100 nope it's more do you see a pattern here one contract folks what I'm teaching you is literally a ATM machine in your hands I'm giving you the PIN numbers every time I do a video here I'm giving
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you another digit and once you figure out what it is that you want to do with this content and make it part of you and you'll see what I mean by that right now you might see me showing you
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it's like man this makes perfect sense most of the comments that I don't allow to be posted are just sugar sweet diabetic coma type lovey doy comments and I'm not making fun of that and I appreciate I know what you mean by it
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and you want to show your adoration and respect I love that but don't lose sight that you're feeling that Splash over because I'm literally taking you into the chart and showing you what I know and you're excited because you know
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the opportunity is available to you if you stick to this and that's the right perspective but don't lose sight and think that I just watch that video and I'm going to go out there and trade because I've had some people post in the
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comment section and they try to do something with Live accounts which I already said no don't do that and they're saying I I don't think these Concepts work because I try to do this and I tried to buy this fair value Gap
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today and you know who you are and I'm not trying to make fun of you I'm not talking down to you but the bias is bearish so if the bias is bearish would you go in looking for a bullish fair
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value Gap no that's that's the purpose of having a model and in with that model each morning before the markets even start trading you write down what your intentions are what does that mean I gave you the range right here's the opening price it
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rallies up to that so inside that range you're going to look for a set out to go short you're bearish and if it goes down below that low you can still take a short if it's in this range minus this
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low okay if it leaves that area you can't chase it I don't care how good it looks later in the day you don't do it you have to have discipline folks if you don't have discipline your broker's not
Speaker A
going to help you with that they want you to click that button that's how you make money and they don't care if you blow your account because there's going to be 20 more to replace you because they watch watched ICT videos they've
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watched everybody else on YouTube that try to tell you that you can do this and it's so easy even a pizza delivery boy can do it so hopefully this has helped clear up the idea of bias and power three and I
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will be repeating these themes when it's applicable in the newer videos that come out and examples I'm going to teach with but for now I can't say it enough what you were just exposed to that is the underpinnings of what we do in my Camp
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okay ICT my students we look at Price like that let me throw one more thing in here just to piss off everybody that doesn't like these long videos let me go back up in this area real quick and on the daily chart with
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the candlesticks is what I'm looking for here here we go all right notice something from this low up to this high it's bullish okay we're expecting bullish prices this is how you back test you tell yourself in your annotations I
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was expecting you're you're basically lying to yourself in the in the comments of your chart when you're back testing it sounds foolish okay trolls are going to love that comment coming out of my mouth but what you're doing is is you're
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teaching yourself SU experience it's training your subconscious to see this stuff like you saw it live and when you record it on the chart in your own annotations and you log it and you keep it in your journal and on the weekend you go back
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and look at your Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday and and you look at the previous week and you start looking at these patterns and how it repeats over and over again when it's bullish you're trying to stay with the opposite of this
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open near the low close near the high but expansion to the upside so accumulate Longs manipulate get people thinking it's going to go lower and then Ram it up higher distribute the Longs near the close that's what you're
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looking for here with that mindset okay you're all afraid of but what happens if it's a down day ICT what happens well the worst thing it can happen is you lose money and if you think that you're going
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to trade and not ever lose money turning the videos off don't ever watch anybody else's either because that's not a proper mindset Traders are professional losers they're managing every trade right from the beginning they got to come out of the costs you're
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paying a commission and if you got slipped in Forex you got to spread every trade opens up as a loser so a Trader is a professional management company of losing trades they turn losers into winners but not every loser
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can be turned into a winner but they don't lose their business because a few never become winners it's real important to understand that folks it's a paradigm shift that took place when I was a younger man I felt that there was a way
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for me to always win I was convinced of it there isn't there is no way of doing that okay so last analogy last lesson and the video is over if we're bullish here okay we're expecting each candle to
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expand higher so in other words the close be higher than the opening on each individual candle my up candles are green how many black or down Clos candles do you see in this price run two wow how about this price moveed here
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it's going lower right going down for the sell side here you're bearish but what happens ICT if it goes up you'll probably lose money but let's count how many up closed candle we have one two 3 four five look
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how much range it moved if you can't have a model that weathers say you got a losing trade each one of those days if that blows your account you're not managing your risk properly you're overleveraging or overtrading see how easy that is to
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deduce your problems it's simple stuff folks but you're you're scaring yourself you're overthinking things you're listening to me talk about multiple Concepts that will come together in a few weeks but you're overthinking everything and you're trying to assume
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just because you watched a few videos and you're thinking foolishly that just by watching a few of these videos we're only in episode 10 10 episodes and some of you think you can go out there and own the world
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now I understand it's empowering information if you've never been in uced to it but you're not going to own the world up to episode 10 okay you're not going to do that you're going to lose money if you go out there and try to
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rush to try to do this stuff there's a lot of things we still have to cover and you haven't even back tested enough I haven't even been teaching it long enough on YouTube for you to even have a
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backlog of data to draw experience from so think about that okay trust me when I tell you folks these moves repeat all the time all the time and don't feel like you're missing out because you're not doing it right
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now put that feeling aside make this fun while you're learning it and it'll never feel like a job or a tedious task that's going to be it for this one hopefully it was insightful to you and until I'll
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talk to you next Tuesday enjoy your weekend and be safe
Topics:economic calendarmarket volatilityprice actiondaily biasstock indicesForexFactoryPower Threepremium marketdiscount markettrading mentorship
