Jiang: 90% of Humanity Could Be Gone in 50 Years. What … — Transcript

Professor Jiang predicts 90% of humanity could perish in 50 years, analyzing geopolitics, AI, and global conflicts with insights from game theory.

Key Takeaways

  • Geopolitical conflicts, especially involving the US and Iran, are driven by strategic control over critical maritime chokepoints.
  • AI will not simply ease life but will be used to predict and control human behavior in the emerging civilian state.
  • Professor Jiang’s predictions have been remarkably accurate, lending credibility to his warnings about future global instability.
  • Personal resilience and vision can transform adversity into a platform for global influence and education.
  • Understanding game theory and historical strategic doctrines like McKinder’s is essential to grasp modern geopolitical tensions.

Summary

  • Professor Jiang made three 2024 predictions: Trump winning the election, US war with Iran, and US losing that war; the first two have occurred, the third is unfolding.
  • Jiang has a unique perspective from studying both American and Chinese systems, having graduated from Yale and researched at Harvard.
  • He explains America's decline through three major reasons and discusses AI's role in society and control.
  • Jiang shares his personal story of hardship, immigration, and overcoming adversity to become a respected educator and speaker.
  • He uses game theory to analyze geopolitics, viewing nation-states as rational players optimizing outcomes.
  • The war between the US and Iran is framed as a strategic game over control of trade routes and resources.
  • The McKinder theory is explained, emphasizing control over maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal as key to global power.
  • Jiang highlights the importance of maritime routes for oil transport, especially to East Asia, and emerging Arctic routes.
  • The podcast explores the implications of these geopolitical dynamics on global stability and future conflicts.
  • Jiang’s mission is to educate and inspire, aiming to influence public understanding over the next 50 years.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00
Speaker A
The next 50 years, 90% of humanity dies off. Dies off. Professor Jung, in 2024, on camera, he made three predictions. John would win the election, America would go to war with Iran, and the US would lose that war. The first two have already come true. Today, the world's biggest podcasts talk about his predictions because the third one is coming true right now. The entire world right now is off balance. The war in Iran, I don't see them stopping. I only see them expanding and increasing, but sooner or later there will be peace. Right? Right. The problem with peace, so I'm going to visualize this for you. He graduated from Yale with honors and worked as a researcher at Harvard, a man China invited to educate its future leaders at the most prestigious school in the country. For 20 years, he saw both the American and Chinese systems from the inside. Maybe that's why he notices what others miss. Let me explain the three major reasons why America is in decline. But Musk says AI will save America. Isn't that true? When they say that AI will transform society, they don't mean you'll make your life easier. Okay. So, the secret to the AI civilian state are two things. Two things that allow me to predict their behavior, but then also allow me to control how you behave. Your predictions keep coming true with frightening accuracy. How did you learn to see things this way? Ten years ago, I was broke. Broke. Broke. I think about how I should just end myself and I'll be free of this hell. Hell, hell. When I was getting ready for this interview, I expected a big episode about geopolitics, but I walked away with a story I still can't get out of my head. It turns out the man whose predictions keep coming true once couldn't see his own future. How he went from that point to being heard by millions. That might be the strongest part of this episode. But once you hear his predictions, you might change your mind. Enjoy. Yeah, it was a long journey to start this recording today. Thank you so much for joining our podcast. Thanks for coming all the way to Beijing. Professor Zan, I have to tell a little bit to my viewers. In 2024 on camera, you made three predictions that Trump would win, that he would start war, and that America would lose it. It came true. You graduated from Yale with distinction. Did research at Harvard's Graduate School of Education and spent 20 years teaching inside the most elite school in Asia. Just in the beginning shortly, can you say what is your mission and passion? I am first and foremost an educator. So my mission is to enlighten and inspire as many people as I can, hopefully through our podcast. And this is something that I would want to do for the next 50 years. And as I understand your background helped you in this way. Absolutely. Let me ask you about your life, about your childhood. What was at the beginning? So I was born in 1976 in a small fishing village in South China. And at that time, China was very poor because this is at the tail end of the Cultural Revolution and China had been closed from the world for the past 10 years. My father was a high school teacher at that time and he was very concerned about China's future. So for the sake of me, his son, and his future children, he decided to immigrate to Toronto, Canada, where we had relatives. And for the rest of his life, he would be a dishwasher. And so because we were poor, you know, my father cut my hair and all the clothes I wore were gifts from relatives. So they were hand-me-downs. They were secondhand clothes. So my classmates didn't want to play with me. I was never allowed to play in the games that they played on playgrounds during recess. When the teacher asked us to partner with a friend for school trips, no one wanted to be my partner. At the end of grade one, my teacher asked to talk to my mother. My mother didn't speak English. She says to my mother through the translator, "Your son is wonderful. He's very polite. He's very obedient, but he does not speak a word of English. This entire year, he is in my classroom and he does not understand anything I say. Every day he's staring outside the window. He's learned nothing this past year." And so my mother hears this. She asked the teacher, "Do you mean that you want my son to repeat grade one?" And my teacher said, "No, that's not what I meant. What I meant is he should go to kindergarten." And my mother then does something that changes the course of my life. She turned around, looked down at me, and she asked me, "What do you want to do?" I said, "I want to go to grade two. I don't want to go to kindergarten, and I don't want to repeat grade one. I want to go to grade two." Now, that was the worst decision of my life because the teacher was absolutely right. I go into grade two and I fall further behind. I become very insecure. I stutter. I'm afraid to speak in public. And by the time I hit grade eight, my life is just terrible. And my father is being bullied at work as well. I'm a very disobedient kid. He hits me a lot. He's very violent towards me. And at this point, I think to myself, there's no safe space for me. I think about how I should just end and then just disappear and no one will miss me and I'll be free of this hell that I'm living in. But I don't do it. And the reason why is there's a part of me, maybe there's this light inside of me that dreams of a better world. And I'm thinking to myself how I'm shy, I'm insecure, I stutter, but I see myself one day on stage talking to an audience. With my words, I'm able to move people. I'm able to inspire people. Vision in my head that one day I could make a difference in the world. I don't know where it comes from. I don't know why I believe it, but I believed it. So, I continue. I struggled. I persisted. I'd like to ask about your predictions. How did game theory help you make them? Right. I start to perceive each nation-state as a rational player trying to optimize or maximize the outcome. And so let me explain using game theory why I was able to predict that the war between the United States and Iran would start. Okay. So I'm going to visualize this for you. Yeah. Please. All right. What is the game being played about? What's it being played about? Trade access, right? It's about resources and how to control resources and how to move resources from one place to the next. All right? Now, in the game of geopolitics, there's a very important theory that you need to know. It's called the Mckinder theory. Okay? And Mckinder was a British military strategist. He explains how Britain as a naval power can maintain control over the world. So at this time in history, this is the 18th century, 19th century, people trade mainly by the sea because it's the cheapest, fastest way to trade around the world. The theory is very simple. If you want to control the world, you have to control certain choke points. Maritime choke points in the world and then the world has to obey you in order to access resources. Okay. And so the most important choke points are the Cape of Good Hope. It allows you to go around Africa and reach Asia. Then you have the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran now controls. Yeah. You also have the Red Sea, which is where the Suez Canal is, and this is important because the Middle East is where most of the world's oil is produced and you have to ship the oil through the Hormuz and the Red Sea in order to access the rest of the world, especially East Asia. Over here you have something called the Strait of Malacca, which is between Indonesia and Malaysia, and the only way for East Asia, China, South Korea, and Japan to access Middle East oil is through the Strait of Malacca. You also have the Strait of Gibraltar. Okay. Over here in the Western Hemisphere, you have the Panama Canal. And now what's happening is that you now have the Arctic being opened up.
00:16
Speaker A
true. Today, the world's biggest [music] podcasts talk about his predictions because the third one is coming true right now. [music] The entire world right now is off balance. The war in Iran, I don't see them stopping. I only
00:29
Speaker A
see them expanding and increasing, but sooner or later there will be peace. Right? Right. The problem with peace, so I'm going to visualize this for you. He graduated from Yelp with honors and worked as a [music] researcher at
00:41
Speaker A
Harvard, a man China invited to educate its future leaders at the most prestigious school in the country. For the 20 years, he saw both the American and Chinese systems from the inside.
00:52
Speaker A
Maybe that's why he notices what others miss. Let me explain the three major [music] reasons why America is in decline.
00:59
Speaker A
But Musk says AI will save America. Isn't [music] that true? When they say that AI will transform society, they don't mean you'll make your life easier.
01:07
Speaker A
Okay. So, the secret to the AI [music] civilian state are two things. Two things that allows me to predict their behavior, but then also allows me to control how you behave. Your predictions keep coming true with frightening accuracy. How did you learn to see
01:20
Speaker A
things this way? 10 years ago, [music] I was broke. Broke. Broke. I think about how I should just myself and I'll be free of this hell. Hell, hell.
01:36
Speaker A
When I was getting ready for this interview, I expected a big episode about geopolitics, but I walked away with a story I still can't get out of my head. It turns out the man whose predictions keep coming true once
01:48
Speaker A
couldn't see his own future. how he went from that point to being hurt by millions. That might be the strongest part of this episode. But once you hear his predictions, you might change your mind. Enjoy.
02:09
Speaker A
Yeah, it was a long journey to start this recording today. Thank you so much for joining our podcast. Thanks for coming all the way to Beijing.
02:20
Speaker A
Professor Zan, I have to tell a little bit my viewers. In 2024 on camera, you made three predictions that Trump would win, that he would star war, and that America would lose it. It come true. You graduated from Yale with distinction.
02:41
Speaker A
did research at Harvard's graduate school of education and spent 20 years teaching inside the most elo school in Asia. Just in the beginning shortly, can you say what is your mission and passion?
02:58
Speaker A
I am first and foremost an educator. So my mission is to enlighten and inspire as many people as I can hopefully through our podcast. Um and this something that I would want to do for the next 50 years
03:15
Speaker A
and as I understand your background helped you in this way. Absolutely. Let me ask you about your life about your childhood. What was uh at the beginning? So I was born in 1976 in a small fishing village in South
03:38
Speaker A
China. And at that time, China was very poor because this is at the tail end of the cultural revolution and China has been closed from the world for the past 10 years. My father was a high school teacher at that time and he was very
03:58
Speaker A
concerned about China's future. So for the sake of me, his son, and his future children, he decided to immigrate to Toronto, Canada, where we had relatives.
04:11
Speaker A
And for the rest of his life, he would be a dishwasher. And so because we were poor, you know, my father cut my hair and all the clothes I I wore were gifts from relatives. So they were handme-downs.
04:25
Speaker A
They're secondhand clothes. So my classmates didn't want to play with me. I was never allowed to play in the games that they played on playgrounds during the recess. When the teacher asked us to partner with a friend for school trips,
04:43
Speaker A
no one wanted to be be my partner. At the end of grade one, um my teacher asked to talk to my mother. My mother didn't speak English. Uh she says to my mother through the translator, "Your son is wonderful. He's very polite. Uh he's
05:02
Speaker A
very obedient, but he does not speak a word of English. This entire year, he is in my classroom and he does not understand anything I say. Every day he's staring outside the window. He's learned nothing this past year." And so
05:19
Speaker A
my mother hears this. She asked the teacher, "Do you mean [music] that you want my son to repeat grade one?" And my teacher said, "No, that's not what I meant. What I meant is he should go to kindergarten." And my
05:43
Speaker A
mother then does something that changes the course of my life. She turned around, looked down at looked down at me, and she asked me, "What do you want to do?" I said, "I want to go to grade two. I don't want to go to kindergarten,
06:00
Speaker A
and I don't want to repeat grade 1. I want to go to grade two." Now, that was the worst decision of my life because the teacher was absolutely right. I go into grade two and I fall further behind. I become very insecure. I
06:19
Speaker A
stutter. Uh I'm afraid to speak in public. And by the time I hit grade eight, my life is just terrible. And my father is being bullied at work as well.
06:30
Speaker A
I'm a very disobedient kid. Hits me a lot. He's very violent towards me. And at this point, I think to myself, there's no safe space for me.
06:41
Speaker A
Um, I think about I think about how I should just and then just disappear and no one will miss me and I'll be free of this hell and that I'm living in. But I don't do it. And the reason why is there's a part
07:04
Speaker A
of me, maybe there's this light inside of me that dreams of a better world. And I'm thinking myself how I'm shy, I'm insecure, I stutter, but I see myself one day on stage talking to an audience.
07:23
Speaker A
With my words, I'm able to move people. I'm able to inspire people. vision in my head that one day I could make a difference in the world. I don't know where it comes from. I don't know why I
07:36
Speaker A
believe it, but I believed it. So, I continue. I struggled. I persisted. I'd like to ask about your predictions.
07:49
Speaker A
How did game theory help you make them? Right. I start to perceive each nation state as a rational player trying to optimize or maximize the outcome.
08:05
Speaker A
And so let me explain using game theory. Yeah. Why I was able to predict that the war uh between United States and Iran would start. Okay. So I'm going to uh visualize this for you. Yeah. Please.
08:20
Speaker A
All right. What is the game being played about? What's it's being played about trade access, right? It's about resources and how to control resources and how to move resources resources from one place to the next. All right? Now,
08:35
Speaker A
in the game of geopolitics, there's a very important theory that you need to know. It's called the Mckender theory. Okay? And Mckender was a British uh military strategist. He he explains how Britain as a naval power can maintain control over the world. So at
08:55
Speaker A
this time in history, this is the 18th century, 19th century, people trade mainly by the sea because it's the cheapest, fastest way to trade around the world. The theory is very simple. If you want to control the world, you have to control certain choke
09:14
Speaker A
points. maritime choke points in the world and then the world has to obey you in order to access resources. Okay. And so the most important choke points are the cape of good hope. It allows you to go around Africa and reach Asia. Then you
09:37
Speaker A
have the straight of humus which Iran now controls. Yeah. You also have the Red Sea which is where the sewers canal is and this is important because the Middle East is where most of the world's oil is produced and you have to uh ship the oil
09:56
Speaker A
through the moose and the Red Sea in order to access the rest of the world especially East Asia over here you have something called the sh of Malaa okay which is between uh Indonesia and Malaysia and the only way for East Asia,
10:14
Speaker A
China, South Korea, and Japan to access Middle East oil is through the SH of Malaka. You also have the sh of Jialter.
10:22
Speaker A
Okay. Over here in the Western Hemisphere, you have the Panama Canal. Um, and now what's happening is that you now have the Arctic being opened up.
10:32
Speaker A
Most of human history, these were the critical maritime choke points. So as long as you able to control these choke points, you basically control the world.
10:42
Speaker A
And this is what gave rise to the British Empire. Otherwise, how could a such a small island nation control the world? This is the theory. But there's a problem with this theory, which is that as the world industrializes,
10:58
Speaker A
it becomes cheaper to build railways. And with railways, you can negate the sea. You can trade through land. you don't have to trade fuse anymore.
11:08
Speaker A
And so the great fear amongst British strategists is that one power would emerge in Eurasia that could unify Eurasia and then u blockade Britain from accessing Eurasia. And so the entirety of British strategy was to prevent a land power who
11:35
Speaker A
could unify Eurasia. So at first it was the French, right? This is what led to the Napoleonic wars. There were seven wars.
11:44
Speaker A
Yeah. Napoleon won six of them and he lost the last one. And the reason why Britain fought these wars is to ensure that France cannot control Eurasia. because um if Napoleon controlled Eurasia then Britain would collapse economically. Then um after
12:03
Speaker A
Napoleon this led to the great game between Russia and Britain for control of Central Asia.
12:10
Speaker A
Mhm. And then this is what led to World War I, right? Because Germany was emerging as the European hedgemon. And if Europe became too powerful then it could build railways into the Middle East into Central Asia and Britain could not allow
12:25
Speaker A
that. That's what led to World War I and World War II. Now after World War I and World War II, America became the empire but America still maintained this system. And again the idea is in the game of geopolitics what matters is
12:40
Speaker A
trade access. And the way to uh maintain your empire is one to have the greatest navy in the world and control the choke points, but second of all to create chaos within Eurasia. What's happening right now is that the entire Middle East is on
13:00
Speaker A
fire. the GCC, the Gulf Cooperative Council, Saudi Arabia, uh Qatar, uh UAE, they're not able to export oil around the world anymore.
13:14
Speaker A
And this leaves now two major suppliers of energy in the world. They are the United States who which controls the Western Hemisphere and Russia. And that's what the great game is about.
13:28
Speaker A
It's about trade access. It's about control of resources. It's about who is allowed to trade with who. Right? So given that the Middle East is in fire, Japan, China, South Korea can either buy LG and oil from the United States or Russia.
13:46
Speaker A
And those are your two options. Mhm. Okay. So that's what this war is about according to game theory.
13:55
Speaker A
Let's go back to your early years. What did you do after high school? In grade 10, a substitute teacher comes into the English classroom. I feel here's my chance to convince someone I can be someone one day. And that one
14:15
Speaker A
week I'm with her, I'm a very different person. I'm focused. I raise my hand. I participate. I feel safe with this teacher. And this teacher told me, "I see something special in you." And then that was it. She's went away. I
14:33
Speaker A
never saw her again. I don't remember her name. I don't remember what she looks like. All I remember are her words. You are someone special. I felt validated at that. From that point onwards, I decide to make myself
14:47
Speaker A
special. One day, I'm sitting in the classroom and my the guidance counselor walks inside the classroom. I didn't even know we had a guidance counselor.
14:57
Speaker A
She talks about how maybe some of you for whatever reason you might want to go to the United States for college, but don't do that because the schools in United States suck except for the Ivy League, but the Ivy League is for rich
15:13
Speaker A
people. [laughter] And then I hear this, Ivy League, what is that? So I become interested. So I go to the library and I study up on the Ivy League. The Ivy League is where the world's leaders go. These are people
15:26
Speaker A
with charisma. These are people who are athletic. These are people who have demonstrated tremendous character, tremendous communication skills, tremendous leadership skills. So from that point onwards, I commit myself to becoming Ivy League material. So, I switched schools from my average to the
15:50
Speaker A
most elite academic public school in Toronto. And they did not welcome me because I was an outsider. But I didn't care because I had a purpose. And my purpose was to get into the Ivy League.
16:04
Speaker A
Then every day um on the subway, it took me 30 minutes to get to my school from my uh home. I read The New Yorker. I read the Atlantic because I needed to prepare for the vocabulary test that was the SAT and
16:20
Speaker A
everyone in the school knew that I was utitarian. I was ambitious. Then I applied to four universities MIT, Yale, Harvard, Princeton. So the first school to reject me was MIT. It was a very small envelope and it was a one-page
16:41
Speaker A
letter that said, you know, we like you. You're a strong applicant, but there are too many applicants. We have we have to turn you away. Rejection letter was Harvard. And Harvard wrote the best rejection letter ever. Okay? [laughter]
16:55
Speaker A
Um because what the letter said is this. The letter said, "Ultimately, it doesn't matter where you go.
17:03
Speaker A
What matters is what you do when you get there." I read the letter and I and I thought to myself that is very very true. Thank you Harvard. Um so Harvard also rejected me but it was a very nice
17:14
Speaker A
rejection letter so I forgive Harvard. Uh and then Princeton rejected me and by midappril I've not heard from Yale. I just assumed that Yale would also turn me down. I didn't feel I I need any chance. At the end of April, I go home
17:31
Speaker A
and in my mailbox there's this letter from Yale and I didn't want to read another rejection letter. So, I threw it in the garbage and I went up to my room to read. But then I was like, you know
17:44
Speaker A
what? I really should open that rejection letter. I open it and the first word is congratulations.
17:53
Speaker A
So now I go to Yale and I'm thinking to myself that my life is forever changed.
18:02
Speaker A
This is Yale. Here I'm going to meet people who will become my best friends and we will do great things together.
18:10
Speaker A
And here every day I'm going to engage in intellectual discussions with people who are very serious. It's a place for you to learn the etiquette, the attitude, the manners of the elite, how to think like them and how to talk like
18:30
Speaker A
them. And for the four years I was there, I basically became very isolated, very, very alienated. I felt even more depressed.
18:42
Speaker A
At the end of the first year, our freshman year, you're supposed to find friends to room with, but no one wanted to room with me. So, they put me in the attic of the residential college, Jonath.
19:00
Speaker A
And it was actually called Wear Hall, WIR. And there's like six rooms. They're closets. They're for people who no one likes. and I was one one of the um six that no one actually liked. So Yale was a very traumatic experience for me.
19:18
Speaker A
Rather than liberate me, rather than empower me, it basically traumatized me into my own depression.
19:30
Speaker A
This is one of the most fascinating stories I've ever heard on my podcast. You are very brave person. Thank you so much for being honest and for sharing this story with me today. We'll definitely come back to this later. And
19:47
Speaker A
uh what are your predictions right now? What are they about? What do you think will happen in the future? So to understand the future, we have to use game theory to understand the situation of each nation state. Okay. So let's
20:05
Speaker A
look at look at America first. America. What is the source of American power? What is the point of America? And the point of America is to protect the supremacy of the US dollar.
20:22
Speaker A
Yeah. Right. Because everyone now uses the US dollar and America can print an infinite number off them. So that's a source of American power. The problem with the dollar is that it's a Ponzi scheme.
20:37
Speaker A
meaning that the US dollar has no inherent value in itself. It's only valuable if people want it. And unfortunately right now because of financial corruption in America because the American military is too overextended, a lot of nations are
20:55
Speaker A
choosing to walk away from the US dollar. So look at Japan and China, they are selling more US treasuries. The GCC nations for the longest time were supporting the American economy, were buying US dollars. Yeah.
21:13
Speaker A
But because of this war, they're now forced to sell more US dollars in order to finance their own economies now that they can export oil. What's so what's been happening is that the bond yields for US treasuries have been going up.
21:27
Speaker A
This is a problem because right now America has $39 trillion in debt. So if the debt yield, the interest rate is 5 to 6%, that means America has to pay $2 trillion in interest payments alone annually. And you can imagine that over time this
21:49
Speaker A
entire Ponzi scheme will collapse. So America has absolutely no choice but to force the world to continue to buy US treasuries. So the only strategy available to America is to use the Mckender hypothesis and create as much chaos as possible so that the world is
22:10
Speaker A
forced to go to America to buy energy weapons. Okay. So um imagine a situation like this where right now in Europe there's a war going on between Europe and Russia. In East Asia, there's conflict now between Japan and China. In
22:31
Speaker A
the Middle East, the conflict is between Iran versus United States and Israel. Every one of these nations requires energy, oil, weapons. America is a continental fortress that has unified the Western Hemisphere. Now, they have infinite resources. They're able to turn
22:52
Speaker A
these resources into weapons that they can sell the rest of the world and the rest of the world is forced to to buy US dollars in order to buy this energy and weapons from America. Okay. So that's the American strategy moving forward.
23:05
Speaker A
They have actually no choice in the matter because they're addicted to US dollars require the rest of the world to buy US dollars. So they need to force the rest of the world to buy US dollars.
23:17
Speaker A
You said that the US may have big problems in the near future and uh that the chance of this is high. But Elon Musk recently said that AI can help uh the US. He also tried to find problems
23:35
Speaker A
in the US government before. Now he believes AI will help the US and other western countries. What do we think about this? Okay, so let's analyze why America is in is in decline. And when you analyze why it's in decline, what
23:53
Speaker A
you recognize is that it's declining for every single reason why empires in the past have declined before.
24:00
Speaker A
All right, so let's go over the three major reasons why America is in decline.
24:05
Speaker A
All right, so the first major reason is financialization. Okay, what what does this mean? It means that when an empire arises, it focuses on manufacturing. It focuses on creating real products, weapons, yeah, consumer goods. But over time, what empire does
24:24
Speaker A
is it offshores its manufacturing to other people, to other nations, to other groups. And it focuses on financial speculation primarily the idea of usery.
24:35
Speaker A
Okay? Money lending. Why? because that's the most profitable thing to do. But the problem is that financialization does not lead to real productive growth.
24:48
Speaker A
It doesn't lead to real wealth generation. It's only it only looks like money on paper. If you open a restaurant or you open a factory, you're contributing growth to the economy, right?
24:59
Speaker A
Yeah. On average, you could be seeing a return of 2%. But if you take the same money you put in the stock market, you see a return of 5%. So who's going to do any work, right? And the reason why this
25:14
Speaker A
arises is because of the nature of capital. Capital consolidates. Capital monopolizes. And once you monopolize, it's easier for you to make money and you don't have to do a good job anymore, right? So think of um Google and Apple.
25:29
Speaker A
They spend most of their resources on stock buybacks in order to create this illusion that they're creating more value for stock brokers. This is all financialization. And the problem with financialization is that it warps mentality of your population. Before it
25:48
Speaker A
was good, what was important is to work hard and contribute to your community. And that meant that people took pride in going to the factory and making products and helping the factory become wealthier. Now what matters is get rich
26:04
Speaker A
now. Right? So that's why people like Andrew Tate are so popular. Mhm. Right? Because he's telling you, "Hey, if you work hard, you're a sucker.
26:12
Speaker A
You're a loser. If you follow rules, if you listen to your boss, you're a loser.
26:19
Speaker A
You're a What you want to do is get rich and become your own boss, right? And that mentality has taken over young people. There's a huge problem because it means that it's hard for an empire in decline like America to invest
26:35
Speaker A
in long-term projects. So AI absolutely in theory AI could make America a much stronger society. It could create real wealth. The problem is if you look at AI and what's been happening is that it's a basically a Ponzi scheme where there's
26:55
Speaker A
only a few companies and they all just invest in each other creating the illusion of wealth and even today no one knows how to make money out of AI. So open AI has chachib people don't don't appreciate this but for every new
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Speaker A
subscriber to to chachib they lose money. CH GBT is not a profitable model and no AI expert can tell you how to make money. And the problem is that in Empire Decline, it's all focused on speculation. It's about gambling. It's
27:32
Speaker A
about getting rich as opposed to being practical and pramatic. Okay? So that's idea of financialization. That's the first problem with an empire in decline.
27:41
Speaker A
Second problem with an empire in decline is the demographic crisis. The idea is that because society is prosperous and it's stable and it's peaceful, people get older and because they're getting older, they're able to monopolize much of the wealth, power, and status in
28:04
Speaker A
society, leaving little opportunities for young people. And we're seeing that throughout the western world today where the baby boomers are in charge and they refuse to give up power.
28:17
Speaker A
So think about these US presidents. They're all baby boomers. You go to Congress and you've got guys like Chuck Grassley who was a US senator and he's 93 years old. Can you imagine that? 93 years old and he is still working as a
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Speaker A
US senator. He's the fourth person in line to become president of the United States. If Donald Trump dies, it's JD Vance. If JD Vance dies, it's uh Mike Johnson. If Mike Johnson dies, it's Chuck Grassley. And so what's
28:58
Speaker A
happening in the western world is the baby baby boomers refuse to retire. So what do young people do? They refuse to work. They refuse to have children. They become indifferent to society. But the next step is for them to fight each
29:15
Speaker A
other for a civil war to break out. And this is just historically what's always been true. Okay. Okay. You mentioned there are three ideas. What's the third one? Right. And the last the last and the most important is the idea of elite
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Speaker A
overp production. Okay. So this is an idea from a historian named Peter Turchin. He sort of mathematically model how revolutions happened. And so he looked at the French Revolution. He looked at the fall of the Roman Republic. He looked at many serious
29:50
Speaker A
events throughout human history. And mathematically he discovered the main cause of civil war of collapse is you have too many elite struggling for too few positions of status of power. Right? So think about how how in America for the
30:14
Speaker A
longest time financeers were in charge. Wall Street was in charge. But then these past 20 years, you have the tech revolution. So now you have these tech oligarchs like Ellen Musk and Peter Theel and Larry Ellison. They want to be
30:29
Speaker A
in charge as well. So what happened was that they sponsored someone to come into Washington DC to overthrow the financial elite. And this person of course was Donald Trump. Who backed Donald Trump in 2024?
30:48
Speaker A
Peter Theo, Larry Ellison, and Ellen Musk because they're trying to overthrow the power of the financial elite and establish the power of the tech oligarchy. And so what's going to happen in America over next few years is a
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Speaker A
civil war arising between the old guard, Wall Street, and a new guard, Silicon Valley. [snorts] And what Peter says is that this is the most common explanation for why societies go into decline. Okay. So again to summarize there are three major
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Speaker A
symptoms of a nation in decline. America has all three. Financialization, demographic crisis where where young people refuse to um have children and work and then elite overprouction. Okay.
31:34
Speaker A
And then everything else is an outgrowth of these problems. For example, immigration. Why is there immigration both legal and illegal to United States?
31:43
Speaker A
The answer is young people don't want to work and so you need to bring in immigrants in order to replenish the workforce. But we know historically if you do this if you allow too many immigrants to come into the country it's
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Speaker A
going to cause civil chaos. I'd like to go back to that time. How did you graduate Yale with honors? How was it possible? So, I went to Yale expecting to study math and physics because, you know, look at me. I'm I'm
32:15
Speaker A
I'm I'm Chinese, right? [laughter] So, it didn't mean I love math and physics. It's just like I'm Chinese, so I just I just go study math and physics. So, I go into Yale, plan to study math and physics.
32:28
Speaker A
Yeah. But, but Yale also requires you to study humanities to graduate. So, I took English. We're studying Chaucer and Spencer and Milton.
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Speaker A
And my first semester at Yale, I was completely lost because I came from a public school, whereas most of my classmates came from pretty elite private schools. So there are certain things that they did which I didn't know you were supposed to do. For
33:01
Speaker A
example, if the teacher assigned you a book to read, you're supposed to go read that book. And I didn't know that. [laughter] I didn't know you're supposed to actually read the book before you come to class. I thought that the teacher
33:14
Speaker A
would tell us what the book was about in class. So [snorts] during a seminar discussion, I didn't say anything. I was completely lost. And things got so bad that my professor, my English professor suggested that I don't take this class
33:29
Speaker A
anymore. she wanted me to like like go do something else because she felt I was wasting you know her time as as well as my time because I was not following what was happening in the class. But by the
33:41
Speaker A
time in English class that we got to Milton uh and Shakespeare and the romantics Keats and Wsworth, something snapped in me. Okay. something caught my attention and I felt a connection to the poetry I was reading, especially Paradise Lost and I felt that
34:06
Speaker A
a spark had been ignited in me and I became really interested in English. My first semester in [music] English, I only got a C minus, which is the worst grade you could possibly get. And then I got an A minus in my second semester and
34:22
Speaker A
I be I improved tremendously as a writer. And so I felt as though maybe before I was asleep and now being at Yale in this seminar reading Milton woke me up and said, "Hey, this is who you really are. You're meant
34:44
Speaker A
for something bigger than all this. So start paying attention, start getting the work, start taking yourself seriously." [music] And so I became a very good student. Um, and that actually made me even more alienated at Yale because Yale was a competition and a lot
35:00
Speaker A
of the competition was to get approval from from the professors and you got it and I got a lot of approval from my my professors. In fact, I'm still friends with uh my professors with some of my professors. In fact, when I go to Yale,
35:15
Speaker A
I stay at their house. Uh, so they liked me a lot and we stayed in touch these past 30 years and we're still good friends.
35:23
Speaker A
That's almost impossible to believe. You started with a teacher telling you that you should go back to kindergarten and you became one of the top students at Yale. That's an incredible story. I'm trying to make sense of what happened
35:41
Speaker A
and there's a theory. If you want to learn, then what's going to happen is you're going to be assigned the hardest life possible because that's the only way you can truly learn. So learning isn't about reading books. That's part of the
35:58
Speaker A
process, but the real process is to put you in circumstances that really challenge you and force you to persevere, either thrive or die. And I think that's what happened. I think that I came into this world demanding the
36:17
Speaker A
most challenging life possible. I always chose the hard path in life because in my heart I knew that's what will allow me to truly uh thrive as a person. So that's a theory, but recently I've I've come to
36:39
Speaker A
this conclusion. You said AI creates an illusion of wealth, but can governments also use AI to control people?
36:55
Speaker A
Um, do you know much about computer science? Uh, I know this. It is LLM models.
37:01
Speaker A
Okay. All right. So um for the sake of your audience I'm just going to go some into some basics about all okay so the idea of computers is that it engages in recursion okay recurs recursive loop yeah okay just loops in order to solve
37:15
Speaker A
problems the most basic problem it's trying to solve is a math problem like what is 1 + 1 okay and a computer can do that now when you're able to do it infinitely right 1+ 1 plus 1 plus+ one you create great
37:29
Speaker A
things you're able to do things that humans aren't able to The other thing is that if you're able to do 1 plus 1, you're bas basically able to do every possible computation including subtraction, multiplication.
37:40
Speaker A
Uh and so computers are wonderful thing, but we need to remember that ultimately it's about recursion. Okay, it's about taking a simple algorithm and repeating it infinitely in order to generate an output that you want. The other thing
37:52
Speaker A
about computers is that what it's really good at doing is uh database management. Okay, so you have a lot lot of information inside a database and there are two things you want to do with this database. The first is you want to sort
38:07
Speaker A
it basically organize information in a way that benefits you and you want to search it. Okay, basically you want to retrieve information that is important to you. If you look at most of AI, it's basically this database management. So
38:21
Speaker A
what's Google? Well, Google is taking this database that is the internet and searching for information that you want, right? That's Google.
38:30
Speaker A
But you also got facial recognition technology. Facial recognition technology is just basically differentiating a billion faces and then searching for the face that you want.
38:42
Speaker A
Okay. So, and then LLMS, right? Large language models are the same way where they take the entire possibility of languages, right? And then trying to uh search or create uh something that you want. When they say that AI will transform society,
39:03
Speaker A
they don't mean it'll make your life easier. Okay. So, let's look at Palunteer. What is Palanteer really trying to do?
39:10
Speaker A
What it's really trying to do is take all the databases in the world and combine into one database. And then once it has this one database, it can then uh categorize people into subcategories, right?
39:26
Speaker A
Yeah. There are two ways that I can uh know how you behave. The first is I look at who your friends are and then I look at your past behavior, where you spent your money, how you spent your money. Okay?
39:39
Speaker A
Once I have these two crucial piece of data, who your friends are and what you've done in the past, I can predict your life for the next 50 years, right?
39:49
Speaker A
And then what what I can do is I can take people who are like you, who are maybe [snorts] uh born in the same neighborhood, have the same interest, and then at age one, I can predict how that person will behave for the next
40:02
Speaker A
hundred years. So that's a project of palunteer, that's a project of AI. Yeah. Yeah.
40:07
Speaker A
To categorize people in a certain way that allows me to predict their behavior, but then also allows me to control their behavior. And this is what's called the AI surveillance state or the AI control grid. And that's what
40:19
Speaker A
AI is. Maybe some governments could also use AI in good way. For example, for public safety. What do you think about that? Is it possible?
40:30
Speaker A
It's absolutely possible. I live in China and we have an AI civilian state. There's digital ID and there's digital currency. There are cameras everywhere.
40:40
Speaker A
And you know when I first came to China 30 years ago, everyone would steal everything. So if you left your laptop Yeah. We can admit that here is very safety.
40:49
Speaker A
Exactly. Right. So like if you just left your laptop at Starbucks, went went to a washroom, it'd be gone like that. Now you can leave your laptop in public because there are cameras everywhere.
40:59
Speaker A
Yeah. And there facial recognition technology. So if you steal the laptop, the police know who you are. And it's really convenient because let's just say you go to supermarket, you don't have to use cash anymore. You can just scan your
41:10
Speaker A
face and then the machine will automatically deduct Yeah. money from your account. China is a testament to the power of AI surveillance.
41:23
Speaker A
But there are problems with this. The problem is that if you look at China for the past 20, 30 years, there's been very little creativity.
41:35
Speaker A
I've been in China for a long time and 1980s in 1990s, China was making producing great movies. You have Jung Mo, you have Changai uh and these were really interesting movies and it was producing really interesting ideas.
41:52
Speaker A
Yeah. And these past 10 years, China has not been able to produce that many great ideas. If you look at soft power, China is not that great in terms of soft power in that, you know, you have Japan and
42:06
Speaker A
everyone in the world loves anime. You have Korea, South Korea, and everyone in the world loves K-pop. China is not as vibrant and dynamic as a society as it used to be.
42:19
Speaker A
Um, and you can make the argument that people are much more unhappy than before.
42:29
Speaker A
So, for example, isn't it wonderful? You you can just use your phone and call a taxi driver and then he'll take you anywhere or app. Yeah.
42:42
Speaker A
Right. And it's really cheap, too. Yeah. Yeah. Right. But think about the emotional pressure on that taxi driver. His entire world, his entire life is controlled by the algorithm.
42:58
Speaker A
So if you get a bad review, they deduct your salary. Yeah. If you are late, they deduct your salary.
43:10
Speaker A
Because of that, I regular try to give five stars. Exactly. This is ruled by AI. It is heartless. It is about compassion. It is inhumane in many ways. So there are good things like cheap cheap, you know, cat rides
43:27
Speaker A
and um safe streets and con convenient purchasing, but there are bad things as well. For example, you lose your soul.
43:35
Speaker A
you know, on platforms like YouTube, if you do something wrong, you might stop being recommended. And let's just say that we do this YouTube video and for the reason YouTube accidentally labels it as politically inappropriate.
43:58
Speaker A
Well, you're completely screwed, right? Because good luck trying to find a person who to complain to. Good luck trying to plead your case. It's impossible. It's all controlled by algorithm. And the reason why is the company doesn't see us as humans
44:15
Speaker A
anymore. These people who do AI, their ambition is to make is not to make society much more vibrant, to make human life much more creative. That's what they say. Their entire purpose is to make everyone into a robot. Okay? So, let me
44:37
Speaker A
give you an example of this. For the past 10 years, they've been they've been trying to solve the self-driving car problem. So, a lot of these companies, Tesla, Google, they've been trying to introduce a fully automatized car.
44:53
Speaker A
Yeah. They can't solve the problem because there's an edge case. And the edge case is drivers who've lost their jobs, who intentionally get into an accident with the self-driving car. You can't solve that problem. It's impossible to map out
45:10
Speaker A
human intention. So, there's one solution to this problem. The solution is make every car robotic.
45:20
Speaker A
Make every car self-driving. Take away the steering wheel. and you solve the problem. When you buy a car, it's all electric.
45:30
Speaker A
It's all digitized. There are cameras everywhere and there's no steering wheel. So, you get in a car and where and you can tell the car where to go.
45:37
Speaker A
And it's great if you think about it because [snorts] you it's it'll be safer for everyone. There'll be no accidents, but you've lost all agency and you lost all autonomy. And that's the world we're moving towards where the thing that
45:52
Speaker A
they're most afraid of, the AI people are most afraid of is human agency. So the way to solve this problem is you take it away from people. You don't allow people to drive cars. You don't allow people to make choices. You don't
46:06
Speaker A
allow people to waste money. Right? If you are buying alcohol, they'll program a digital currency to prevent you from buying alcohol. There's nothing you can do about it because everyone's using digital currency.
46:20
Speaker A
Today you are a guest on shows like Tucker Carlson and many people talk about your predictions because they are often very accurate. I want to ask you did your education and life experience help you see things this way? How do you
46:38
Speaker A
make these predictions? Okay. So, um this fame is only recent, right? It's only been the past one year. So, let me talk about what happened after Yale.
46:52
Speaker A
So, I came to China as a high school teacher wanting to reform Chinese education. And my theory was very simple. China has 1.3 billion people.
47:04
Speaker A
They don't speak English. I speak English. Therefore, everyone should just obey me and they will learn English.
47:14
Speaker A
That was my theory, right? Um, so here in China, they speak ching English, Chinese English, and for them that's English. So, if you try to teach them like real English, they don't care. Um, so I learned that the hard way. So, I
47:30
Speaker A
floundered through uh school and I decided I can't become famous being an educator. Um, so I decided that I'll try to become a journalist and I was a journalist for a couple years, but that didn't work out either.
47:49
Speaker A
Then I tried be becoming a doctorate filmmaker. That didn't work out either. I tried working for United Nations in Afghanistan. Didn't work out. And by my late 20s, early 30s, I was a broken man because I had failed everything I tried. I felt
48:10
Speaker A
that um the world was hopeless. I basically for two years lived with my parents. I lived in a basement. and I played video games every single day until my parents got sick of me and threw me out. Okay, so
48:29
Speaker A
they threw me out and I'm forced to come to China because China is cheap and I speak the language [snorts] and every day I would get up at 12:00 2:00 in the afternoon and then in the evening I would go and I would get
48:47
Speaker A
drunk. In the middle of winter, I sleepwalk naked into a blizzard and I open the door, okay? And like there's this whiteness and the wind is whipping at me and I'm fing back and that's a sign from God which is like you better start
49:08
Speaker A
getting your act together. Um, and so I um commit to change [music] my life. I needed to reflect on how I got to this point because I I was a very student at Yale and 10 years later I'm a dismal
49:25
Speaker A
failure. And I reflect and I recognize that my Yale education was very very limiting.
49:37
Speaker A
And there are three reasons why. First of all, when you go to a place like Yale, what you're taught is that only IQ matters. If you're able to articulate idea, then you are smart. But all the forms of talent, whether it's musical
49:57
Speaker A
[snorts] or uh physical doesn't really matter. All that matters is uh IQ. Uh second thing is that failure is not an option. You must succeed at all costs.
50:11
Speaker A
If you don't succeed at Yale, sorry, if you graduate from Yale and you don't succeed, you might as well Okay, so there's a lot of pressure to succeed to prove you're worthy [snorts] of a Yale education. And the third thing is you
50:26
Speaker A
don't need to work with anyone. Just based on your talent, you'll be able to succeed on your own terms. And all three of these things were not true.
50:36
Speaker A
And so I committed myself to changing my programming. What I wanted to do was step outside of my body and then look look inside my mind and then reprogram it in a way that allows me to to be more free to be more in control of
50:57
Speaker A
my life. Now at this point in my life and this is like my early 30s I become interested in a theory called neuroplasticity which is to say that we can always rewire the synapses in our brain to be
51:08
Speaker A
whoever we wanted as long as you commit yourself to the right activities. So for one year I decide to do things I've never done before in my life including uh cinema comedy [snorts] because the one thing that in my life I was most afraid of was
51:30
Speaker A
being laughed at. And again for the longest time I took myself very very seriously. But the moment that I got on stage and I told jokes and people laughed at me, I felt they were laughing with me.
51:47
Speaker A
The feeling of being able to bring joy to the world made me feel extremely happy and edified.
51:57
Speaker A
I also tried um a lot of sports, for example, Brag jiu-jitsu. M so um I'm not sure if you practice Brazilian jiu-jitsu but the way they train is very very strange because I did Mu Thai and in Mu Thai they teach you
52:13
Speaker A
technique right and they make you practice but jitsu you go to the um place and for the entire time they beat you up there's this bigger guy and all he does is beat the crap out of you and
52:29
Speaker A
at the end of it your neck is sore you know you want to cry I'm I'm going home from the training and I think to myself, this is really stupid. I'm getting beat up in my 30s and you know when I was a
52:44
Speaker A
teenager in Toronto, I was also getting be beaten up. The difference is this though. The difference is now I'm paying for the privilege of getting beat up in my 30s. But what happened is that through this training, you start to lose
53:00
Speaker A
a lot of your fear. I also tried skydiving. Don't do that, by the way. [laughter] Complete waste of money. Um, but I did skydiving. I did parkour. I learned how to sing. Uh, I learned the piano. I I
53:20
Speaker A
did everything possible. And I also tried cooking. So when you go to cook cooking school, you're supposed to make two dishes and you're supposed to present your dish in front of the chef who will then give you a grade.
53:36
Speaker A
Yeah. And so uh we make our dishes and all my classmates, they line up and they're very proud of their accomplishment and the chef tastes the meal and smiles and says, "Great job." And then the students feel great. It's my turn to present the
53:53
Speaker A
dish. A chef looks at me and says, "I'm not touching this." [laughter] And I'm like, "Wait a minute here. Wait, wait, wait. This is strange. Are you failing me? Are you going to fail cooking school?" At Yale, the professors
54:10
Speaker A
don't do that. Okay? The professors tell you how great you are. Even when you suck, they say, "You're great. You're going to go conquer the world." And here in cooking school, they tell you the truth. And I thought that was illegal.
54:21
Speaker A
You're not supposed to do that as a teacher. And cooking school was a humiliation ritual for me. But then I started to observe my classmates. And there's this one girl in my class and she's 18 years old. She would get up at
54:36
Speaker A
4:00 in the morning to do two hours of CrossFit. Then she'd bike to her work and for like eight hours she would cut vegetables.
54:46
Speaker A
Okay, just cut vegetables. And then she'd come to cooking school and then she'd go home and do it again.
54:55
Speaker A
And I and I and I thought to myself, "Wow, she is so much more impressive than I am, right? Because here's a person who is dedicated, who's passionate, who's committed to her uh ambition, and why do I think I'm better
55:14
Speaker A
than her just because I went to Yale?" And so I recognized that um Yale is about making people arrogant.
55:24
Speaker A
It's not about making them educated. If you really want education, the best place to learn it is in life. So open your heart, open your eyes, and learn from others. And that one year really changed the way I perceived myself and
55:41
Speaker A
the way I perceived education. and I became much more determined to have an open mind and to look at the world much more objectively. These past four years um I've been uh teaching politics in the great books Plato Homer Dante and I
56:03
Speaker A
decide to upload my classes to YouTube u because I want to generate a international audience and my wife and I are very at first we're very optimistic.
56:17
Speaker A
We were like we think that we can hit 5,000 subscribers. That's our goal. 5,000 subscribers. [snorts] And maybe it'll take some time, maybe it'll take four years, but with 5,000 subscribers, I'll be able to help better per pro
56:32
Speaker A
promote education reform in the world. Today, my YouTube channel has 2.6 million subscribers. [laughter] Uh, so that sort of surprised us. Our our goal was 5,000. We hit 2.6 million. But that's how I came to today. Can we talk
56:52
Speaker A
about success? I know you've done some research on this topic. Can you share your conclusions with us? What makes people successful in our world? So if you look at all the studies of people who are successful, there are certain
57:07
Speaker A
trait habits that they have, they have certain habits that enable them to to succeed. Okay. The first major um habit is self-control or delay gratification.
57:22
Speaker A
So the idea is you you're willing to put away immediate pleasure for long-term gain. So the famous um example of this is something called a marshmallow experiment. Yeah.
57:34
Speaker A
By Wal Walter Mitchell. And Walter Mitchell at that time was working at UCLA. This is 1960s. and he asked children who are five and six to come to his laboratory to talk to just have a friendly conversation. And then Walter Mitchell
57:53
Speaker A
would say to them, "I'm sorry, but I need to go to a meeting for 5 minutes.
57:58
Speaker A
Could you please wait for me?" Mhm. I'm really sorry. So here, as an apology, I'm going to give you one marshmallow, but if you can wait for me to come back and you still have not eaten that marshmallow, I will give you two
58:12
Speaker A
marshmallows. So then he goes away and he comes back and he sees some kids have already eaten that first marshmallow and some kids who have not. Okay? And then what what what he will do is what he did
58:28
Speaker A
was he tracked them for 50 years. And what he found was that those who passed the marshmallow test were more likely to do better in school. They did better on test scores. They were more likely to graduate from university. They were more
58:45
Speaker A
likely to succeed in their work. They were more likely to get married and have happy marriages. and the group that didn't pass the test was a complete opposite. That's the idea of self-control. Okay. So, the first principle is self-control. Second
59:04
Speaker A
principle is something called resilience. So there's another Stanford psychologist uh named Carol Dwight and she did research into who succeeds and she came to the conclusion that those who succeed have growth mindset and those who fail have fixed mindset.
59:28
Speaker A
Growth mindset is whenever you encounter failure or difficulty, you see it as opportunity to grow. So you welcome failure.
59:38
Speaker A
Yeah. Those who have a fixed mindset see failure as the worst possible defeat. So they run away from failure. And so if you keep on accepting new challenges, you keep on growing and therefore you keep on succeeding. Okay? So that's the
59:57
Speaker A
idea of resilience. And the third principle is the idea of self-reflection. This is this was um intro introduced to us by a researcher named K. Anders Ericson. He spent decades looking at which students succeeded. So he was basically looking
60:14
Speaker A
at violinists. So uh he did a lot of research in the uh in Berlin.
60:19
Speaker A
He went to a music school there and kids at age five get into this music school.
60:24
Speaker A
And so he looked at uh these different groups and he and he what what he recognized is those who most succeeded practice something called deliberate practice. You can practice for as long as as long as you want but the most
60:37
Speaker A
important thing is to be objective in assessing your weaknesses. Okay. So these are the three basic ideas.
60:49
Speaker A
Self-control, resilience, and self-reflection. But if you go deeper, what you recognize is that a lot of this has to do with family. You come from a good family that's wealthy and well educated, you're much more likely to have self-control. You're much more
61:10
Speaker A
likely to be resilient, and you're much likely to engage in self-reflection. So, what's the difference?
61:20
Speaker A
The difference is that if you come from a good family, you are much more likely to receive unconditional love.
61:33
Speaker A
How deeply were you loved as a child by your parents? How much love did you receive?
61:40
Speaker A
Because if you receive a lot of love, you're much more likely to love yourself and to love others. And therefore, you're much more likely to engage in self-control, self-reflection, and resilience. But if you didn't receive any love as a child,
61:58
Speaker A
you hate yourself and you fear yourself, and so you're less likely to succeed. And uh do you think IQ score is important uh for success?
62:15
Speaker A
I think IQ is one of the greatest illusions out there. So, uh there's a very famous American writer named Neil Postman and he wrote a book called The End of Education and his argument is the only reason why we have tests is so
62:35
Speaker A
that adults can differentiate between smart kids and dumb kids. meaning that intelligence is something that we just made up in order to justify a hierarchy of power.
62:49
Speaker A
What would happen if all the adults in the world disappeared today? Can we imagine this world? Well, you everyone would be like, "Oh, well, it'd be Lord of the Flies. All the kids, the teenagers would start they would starve to because they're
63:07
Speaker A
incompetent." No. What happened is the kids would all start working together. The dumb kids, the smart kids, they would lose these distinctions and every kid would do what he or she could in order to build a better society.
63:31
Speaker A
If you just leave kids alone, if you just trust them, they'll go on and do great things. We know this because in the 19th century in Hawaii, all these different immigrant groups were brought in to work in plantations
63:46
Speaker A
on Hawaii. The plantation owners made a purpose of inviting different ethnic groups because they figured like if they're from different ethnic groups, they can't work together because they don't speak the same language.
63:57
Speaker A
Yeah. So, the parents are working in plantations and the kids are left alone. There's no school.
64:04
Speaker A
So what they do they create their own language they create their own society and they create their own games in order to teach each other when I think about country like Russia it's very large and it's hard to manage such a big territory
64:24
Speaker A
some people say there are about 140 million people there and it's difficult to organize work across such a space But if you use robots instead of people, you could use the whole territory more effectively, grow the economy and uh
64:43
Speaker A
change many things. Why do you think this view is wrong or do you think uh it is actually correct? Okay, to answer this question, we need to think about the fundamental nature of reality.
65:00
Speaker A
And if you look at how human society is created, the main pillar is the exploitation of labor. For the longest time, this concept was called slavery.
65:16
Speaker A
Right? So if you go back to the Greeks uh and you read Aristotle, he tells us that slavery is just a necessary part of life. Never before in human history have we had a society in which everyone had
65:34
Speaker A
time to be creative. And so Ella Mus and other tech uh utopian uh thinkers believe that robotics AI dization will give us this paradise.
65:51
Speaker A
Yeah. I don't think it's possible. So let me explain why using Plato's allegory of the cave. Okay. So in [snorts] Plato his book the republic he he uses a metaphor to describe human society. So imagine a cave underground.
66:11
Speaker A
It's dark. No light comes in. And there are prisoners about a million of them lined up together chained to the floor.
66:21
Speaker A
They can't move. They can't even turn around. They can only stare at a wall.
66:26
Speaker A
Behind them is great fire. Around this fire are people. What they do is they take puppets and they project these puppets onto the wall. So the prisoners are seeing shadows on a wall.
66:41
Speaker A
They believe that these shadows are real. So they start to create civilization around the shadows. They give it names. They create language.
66:48
Speaker A
They create religion. They even create a priesthood to celebrate these shadows as gods. They create schools in order to teach these shadows to their children of civilization arises from these shadows.
67:02
Speaker A
For whatever reason, a prisoner breaks free of his change. And so he goes outside and at first he's blinded by the light, but over time he adapts to this new world of light and his eyes feast on the beauty around him.
67:20
Speaker A
He thinks it's all divine and he thinks he's in heaven and he asks himself, why did I delude myself all this time?
67:33
Speaker A
So he wants to go back and convince everyone to break off the chains and go into light with him. And so he goes back [snorts] and the elite should want to, right? Because if the prisoners would break free, then
67:52
Speaker A
society collapses and nothing can function anymore. Instead, what happens is the prisoners him themselves.
68:03
Speaker A
Why? Because they're too wedded to this reality and they don't want to be told that this is all in uh illusion.
68:14
Speaker A
So to to go back to the Ellen Mus argument, yeah, you're going to have a lot of people first of all who will fight against the robots because they're afraid of losing their jobs. They're also afraid of losing their own reality.
68:31
Speaker A
Right now, what the elite is most afraid of are people sabotaging data centers because it's actually very easy to destroy a data center, right? It's all electricity. you can just rig a drone of explosives and go blow up a data center.
68:47
Speaker A
Um, so people are naturally resistant towards change. Do you think uh this trend will continue?
68:55
Speaker A
I think that if you have a society in which a lot of men are made redundant, they lose their livelihood, then they will take up arms. they will start to create violence in order to reclaim their livelihood.
69:14
Speaker A
But maybe by the time people understand the risks, it will be too late and uh they will not have enough power to change things. So being a truck driver is one of the most lucrative jobs that a high school dropout can have, right? You
69:34
Speaker A
don't need a college diploma. You don't need to be educated to be a truck driver.
69:40
Speaker A
Well, what happens if you make truck driving automated, robotic, these millions of truck drivers would lose their livelihood. Are they going to sit back and not do anything?
69:55
Speaker A
Of course not. Right? So, it's most likely that they will seek vengeance that they will try to destroy the robots. And the same thing happened during the industrial revolution when you had a lot of craftsmen who made beautiful products by hand.
70:14
Speaker A
They were proud of the work they did. They pro they also provided good livelihood to their families. And then you had factories come in. You had um a lot of work was being mass manufactured.
70:28
Speaker A
And so these people would start would go and destroy factories. So you could have a similar situation.
70:34
Speaker A
Yeah. With AI, right? There were people called Ludits, but in the end they lost their jobs and everything changed.
70:45
Speaker A
So the first problem is social resistance. Second problem is we don't actually know if it's possible to create a world of robots.
71:01
Speaker A
We just hope. Yeah, we're [laughter] just hoping. But there has not been enough evidence to suggest that this AI robotic vision is possible. The first was uh social social will something do with this problem because they will lose their jobs.
71:23
Speaker A
Yes. And you said here is something else. Yeah. So right now if you look at development of AI, it's very hard to move AI from the digital world into the real world. I'm just speaking as an industrialized, right? I'm using game theory. I'm asking
71:48
Speaker A
and so I need to mass manufacture robots. Yeah. To mass manufacture robots, I need a lot of crucial ingredients. silicon, rare earthbs, lithium, and right now there's a war going on. So, it's getting harder and harder for me to source a lot of
72:06
Speaker A
this material. I'm also unsure the profitability of robots. I'm not sure how how much it will cost to produce. I'm not sure if they'll work. I'm not sure people will buy them.
72:22
Speaker A
So, but now, is there another way to solve this problem? And a possibility which I think is much more cost- effective is to turn humans into robots.
72:36
Speaker A
So and all the ingredients are in place, right? So you have in the world something called the gig economy where people are U drivers where people are working part-time as janitors basically labor on demand. They're all controlled by the algorithm, right? We we just
72:58
Speaker A
discussed this. Yeah. You also have millions, hundreds of millions of immigrants who want to come into these Russian societies to work.
73:12
Speaker A
Because in the future, if you're in Africa, it's possible there's a famine. Famine. Yeah. In famine, you could have a famine in Africa next five years. Yes.
73:23
Speaker A
What people don't appreciate is that the earth itself, the planet itself can only sustain about two billion people. So the way we've solved this problem is by inventing fertilizer and about a third of the world's fertilizer is transported through the
73:38
Speaker A
shoo. Shoo has been closed down for the past 2 months. It's planting season right now. So a lot of places can't grow food. We don't know about the consequences now, but wait 6 months and you're going to hear lots of reports of
73:56
Speaker A
food shortages around the world, especially in Africa, which is dependent on fertilizer in order to grow grow grow crops. So, we are we are moving into a time of tremendous flux in of tremendous volatility. You're going to have a lot
74:12
Speaker A
of people who will be desperate just for food. So you can turn them into cheap labor, right? And then the last element is your mobile phone. Your mobile phone has become in many ways your best friend.
74:29
Speaker A
Yeah. Or your alter ego. You spend so much time on the mobile phone. Now let me ask you this question. Is there really a difference between a mobile phone and a microchip inside your brain?
74:42
Speaker A
You can drop out your phone microchip. [laughter] Well, here that's a good point. But you know, a lot of workers cannot leave behind the mobile phone. If you're a Uber driver, your mobile phone is attached to you because your your mobile
75:00
Speaker A
phone is you will know have a job and food. Exactly. You also have people working in the AI industry, right? Who who who um label training data around the world.
75:11
Speaker A
they're also married to their phones. So you have cheap labor um that's desperate for work. You have microchip technology that that you can implant into a person to control how this person behaves and then you have um mass demand in western aging
75:32
Speaker A
societies. So all the ingredients are in place. So why not just turn humans into robots which is cheaper than actually create robots to replace humans.
75:43
Speaker A
And it's true that uh some companies now reducing their use of AI because it is very expensive. They lose a lot of money sometimes millions of dollars and some companies even tell their workers uh not to use AI because of the cost. But
76:03
Speaker A
[snorts] maybe in the short term it could be come cheaper than [clears throat] it's now. Do you think uh that is possible? So um the reason why consumer good products have becoming cheaper over the past 20 years is
76:21
Speaker A
globalization, right? It is cheaper for you to source materials from around the world. But in a time of war, in a time of conflict, in a time of delization, in theory, the cost of robots can only go up, but the cost of humans can only
76:40
Speaker A
go down because you have hundreds of millions of refugees from Africa, from Asia, who are desperate for food. So, aren't you better off turning humans into robots than me mass manufacturing robots not knowing not being able to control the cost of
77:03
Speaker A
critical minerals? So now because of crisis, economic instability and wars, it may be difficult to make it cheaper in the short term.
77:15
Speaker A
Look at inflation, right? Look at how um energy prices are going up. Yeah. Right. So you look at for example data centers in America.
77:26
Speaker A
They consume a tremendous amount of energy. They consume a tremendous amount of fresh water and they don't really provide a tangible benefit to society.
77:38
Speaker A
So I I'm not sure how far you can take the AI dream. Okay. You said that it would be better to have about two billion people on earth. Do you think we will face demographic problems in the near future
77:56
Speaker A
will the population keep going down? I think over the next 50 years it is entirely possible that 90% of humanity dies off because we can imagine that these wars that are being fought around the world right now, they will only
78:11
Speaker A
expand. I don't see them stopping. I only see them expanding and increasing, but also because of these wars, it's harder to get resources to the rest of the world. Um, you're going to have a lot of famine throughout the world.
78:30
Speaker A
We're also seeing a lot of changes to the weather and it's possible that we will have some environmental catastrophes over the next 10 20 years that's going to put out a add a strain on global supply of food. Um and if that
78:48
Speaker A
were to happen then wars will break up everywhere because people are fighting for precious resources. Historically we humans have fought over resources.
78:57
Speaker A
Historically, we lived in a time of scarcity, in a time of war, in a time of conflict. And we believed that we have left all that behind. And unfortunately, what's going to happen is history is going to have its revenge. And it's
79:14
Speaker A
going to be brutal because the entire world right now is off balance. We are living too well, too prosperous, and we've borrowed, we've mortgaged the future. And so I see only tragedy and conflict for the next 50 years. I'm a
79:35
Speaker A
young guy. I'm 25 and I have many friends and family. I think about my future and their future. Honestly, I care about people and about humanity in general. So what advice would you give our viewers today and how can they stay
79:53
Speaker A
safe and succeed in life in today's world? So um I'll give you two pieces of advice. Okay. The first piece of piece of advice is reclaim your attention. The second advice is always trust your gut.
80:10
Speaker A
Always trust your intuition. The most valuable commodity in the world is attention. What the greatest act of rebellion that you can make is to say, I want to reclaim my attention. Meaning, I turn off the computer. Meaning, I take
80:28
Speaker A
long walks by myself and just think about who I am and what I want.
80:35
Speaker A
Read books, talk to friends, keep focused, be present. When you do that, you could forever transform the world.
80:46
Speaker A
Transform yourself, you transform the world. My second piece of advice is always trust your intuition.
80:57
Speaker A
We all came here for a purpose. We can only know our purpose by listening to our instincts, which tells us if you're happy or you're not happy.
81:10
Speaker A
We're all here to learn. We're all here to love. We're all here to grow. You have to ignore ignore the noise. You have to let go of your fear. You have to trust your instinct and do whatever you
81:27
Speaker A
think is right and know that whoever tells you not to do that, whether it's your parent or your teacher or your friend, they don't have your best interest at heart. 10 years ago, I was broke. I had no money. I didn't
81:48
Speaker A
have a job. I didn't have any money in my bank account. I didn't have a place to stay.
82:01
Speaker A
And at this at that at that time in my history, I've basically given up on life.
82:11
Speaker A
But there was a part of me that wanted love. I aspire to [music] love.
82:23
Speaker A
And magically, out of nowhere, an angel came into my life who is now my wife.
82:33
Speaker A
I told her, "If you want to be with me, it is possible that we'll be poor forever. [music] It's possible that we'll just have to struggle through life. we'll be in pain throughout um our life. And she said, "I don't care
82:52
Speaker A
because I love you." We had a child together now. We have three [music] children together.
82:59
Speaker A
[snorts] And so don't think with your brain. Don't plan. Don't say, "I need to do this job. I need to make this much this much money.
83:12
Speaker A
I need to be in this place." Dream [music] with your heart. Look for love and the universe will provide for you. Because when I met my wife and we married and we had our children, we didn't have a plan. I had
83:36
Speaker A
no idea at that time that I would have a YouTube channel and it would have over 2 million subscribers.
83:44
Speaker A
I didn't know this. If your heart is in the right place, if the true will and desire, then the universe or God, whatever entity you believe in will answer you and provide for you.
84:01
Speaker A
Have faith in yourself and [music] seek love, meaning, and purpose in your life.
Topics:Professor JianggeopoliticsUS Iran wargame theoryMcKinder theorymaritime choke pointsAI controlglobal conflictfuture predictionsSolomin Podcast

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the three predictions made by Professor Jiang in 2024?

Professor Jiang predicted that Trump would win the election, the US would go to war with Iran, and the US would lose that war. The first two predictions have already come true, and the third is currently unfolding.

How does Professor Jiang explain the US decline?

Jiang identifies three major reasons for America's decline, including geopolitical challenges and the rise of AI, which he believes will transform society by enabling prediction and control of human behavior rather than simply making life easier.

What is the significance of maritime choke points in Jiang's analysis?

Maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal are critical for controlling global trade and resources, especially oil. Control over these points is central to geopolitical power struggles, particularly between the US and Iran.

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