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The love child of Kondogbia and Bissouma, or the next Michael Essien, just how good is Carlos Believer?
In-depth analysis of Carlos Baleba's strengths and weaknesses, highlighting his physicality, passing, dribbling, and goal threat potential.
Key Takeaways
- Baleba is a physically dominant midfielder with elite sprinting and aerial ability.
- His passing and creativity need refinement to match his physical and dribbling talents.
- Shooting has declined but still holds potential for occasional goals.
- His dribbling and ability to escape pressure make him a valuable asset in midfield.
- Consistency and tactical awareness are crucial for his development into a top-level player.
What the video covers
- Carlos Baleba shows elite switch of play and strong physical attributes like acceleration, leap, and duel strength.
- His passing is inconsistent, with some elite pressured passing but average overall accuracy and creativity.
- Baleba's shooting has declined recently, with below-average stats but some power and finesse potential remain.
- He excels in aerial duels, winning nearly 60%, and uses his physicality effectively in midfield battles.
- Dribbling is a key strength, with high successful dribble rates and the ability to break lines using pace and power.
- Creativity through line-breaking passes is currently lacking, limiting his ability to dismantle opposition defenses.
- Baleba’s overall mobility off top speed needs improvement, as he covers less ground at lower intensities.
- He is two-footed and comfortable under pressure, aiding his ability to escape opponents and progress play.
- Despite raw mechanics and inconsistency, his ambition and physical tools suggest a high ceiling if developed.
- Baleba’s best value lies in ball-winning and progression rather than goal scoring, with a realistic target of around five goals per season.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Passing Analysis
- 00:55Wyscout Data and Possession Involvement
- 01:34Creativity and Passing Momentum
- 02:24Physical Profile and Mobility
- 03:08Acceleration and Physical Attributes
- 03:50Shooting Performance and Historical Context
- 04:27Finishing Style and Goal Threat
- 05:11Dribbling Strengths and Style
- 05:55Athleticism and Dribbling Ceiling
- 06:40Creative Passing Limitations and Decision-Making
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Premier League encounters with Manchester United, which is a remarkable record. Statistically, Believer's passing profile is a bit of a mixed bag. Now, from a numbers perspective, his switch of play is elite, but compared to Matías Fernández on every other metric,
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pressured passing, one-touch passing, over the top passing, it's largely in the average bracket. Now, that would be a concern if that was the whole picture.
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Now, if you go back two seasons, the profile looks very different. Pressured passing moves into near elite territory, over the top passing close to elite. So, there's evidence that Believer can operate at a much higher distribution level than the current data
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suggests. In terms of the Wyscout data, which is from this season, again, concerning, not hugely involved in possession, pass accuracy below 90%.
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Now, in terms of the eye test, again, he is capable of some ridiculously good passes, even with his weak foot he can hit some diagonals. But, overall, I think mechanically his striking the ball looks raw. There's a brutish quality to
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it. So, he's got big ideas, not elite execution. I like the intent, his possession game has some zip to it. He doesn't just take touches for the sake of it, and he's moving the game forward.
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Again, comfortable with both feet, which is a useful press resistance tool because it allows him to escape pressure. The issue is in terms of his medium-range progression.
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In terms of the creativity section, we'll touch upon his through passes can be good, but sometimes his passes kill the momentum on an attack, particularly with his long passing. I don't think the stats bear out the eye
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test. He's very inconsistent for me. So, overall, there's a passer there, range, two-footedness, ambition is good, but he needs to earn the right to play those ambitious passes. The ideas are ahead of the execution.
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Wow. Baleba. Statistically, Baleba's physical profile is one of his biggest strengths. Compared to Mateus Fernandes, he's superior in aerial duels, 50/50s, and max speed, and more significantly, sprint distance.
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His overall distance covered, however, is relatively low. And when you look at how often he gets subbed off in games, what this tells me is that he's a player who covers ground with serious intensity, but he needs to work on his
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general mobility when he's not at top speed. Now, the aerial data is very impressive. He competes regularly and wins close to 60% of his aerial duels, which is excellent for a midfielder. In terms of the eye test, we can see that
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Baleba has great leap, serious physical presence, and a real appetite for the battle. He's happy to put his body where the ball is going to land, even in awkward situations, crosses, set pieces, deep deliveries. He's a magnet for the
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ball, and he's even willing to attack those difficult balls just in front of the goalkeeper. That physical aggression means that United are going to win a lot of 50/50s and second balls with him in the midfield. In terms of his
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acceleration, Baleba can eat up the ground with the ball. Once he opens up those long strides, he can hit another gear and create separation from players trying to recover. We've seen him do this centrally and also out in wide
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areas. It takes multiple players working together to stop him once he gets momentum. So, he's obviously not the complete physical article yet, but power, acceleration, leap, duel strength, all hugely encouraging. If anything, I think the eye test tells us
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that the athleticism grade should be higher. The overall distance numbers are likely what's holding it back.
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I think I was here. Were you? Yeah. Here's Baleba. Good strike, great strike! Brighton level!
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Baleba's goal threat profile has taken a major hit. You compare that to players like Youri Tielemans. His current shooting grades are significantly lower, and when you dig into the data, all of his numbers fall into that below average
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bracket. Again, though, the historical context is important. Two seasons ago, shooting was one of his strengths. Open play, unpressured shooting rates close to elite, suggesting when he had time to set himself, there was genuine quality there. Last season, that completely
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disappeared, and the Wyscout data backs it with less than 20% of his shots hitting the target. Abysmal. But, the eye test tells me there is something to work with. He can generate serious power. He's capable of finesse finishes
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from distance. And he can use his weaker foot when required. But, the problem is consistency. He can snatch at chances, particularly around ball striking.
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Doesn't look particularly keen. There's a slightly awkward quality to his finishing, particularly inside the box.
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At times, he looks like a center-back who's decided to bump forward. I don't really see a midfielder here who's going to suddenly become a 10 goals a season player. But, that combination of power, his ability to finesse the ball when he's got time, tells me that
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five goals a season should be a realistic target. Ultimately, though, that's not where I want United maximizing his value. I think his biggest strengths are winning the ball and the ability to break up with the ball. If he ends up getting a handful of
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goals on top of that, that's a bonus. Your best players at Manchester City are with luxury, with De Bruyne.
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The results are going to. Statistically, Believer's dribbling profile is strong when you consider the context of his position. Willingness to take the ball under pressure is close to elite, while his ability to create danger through penetrative carries is
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comfortably above average. Now, bear in mind, these numbers are slightly down on the previous season, but not dramatically. Now, the Wyscout data is even more encouraging. Successful dribble percentage is high. Dribbles regularly for a deep midfielder, and he
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progresses the game with the carries. A profile closer to Declan Rice. Now, in terms of the eye test, the ceiling is interesting. At times, he can be clumsy, running into traffic. But, when he gets that first touch right and opens up, he
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can absolutely destroy midfield lines. Now, there's one particular quality I love, his ability to control awkward balls and immediately escape pressure.
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Pogba-esque in this sense, to be fair. Chest control, flicks, little touches over opponents. And when he hits the afterburners, he's gone. There's also a Matuidi-like quality to the way he bursts through midfield. Now, I wouldn't dismiss the fact that a lot of his
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quality with running the ball comes from pace and power. He's 22, so I think that athleticism, whilst it does help his dribbling now, later on it might be a problem. But for now, he's definitely going to be an asset and he'll have that
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physical tool for years. Now, technically, I wouldn't say he's a Mousa Dembélé type of player. He doesn't have that extraordinary close control, you know, balletic manipulation of the ball. I think he's more functional and powerful, but he is difficult to defend,
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and he's two-footed as well, so he's capable of going either way. What I would like to see is more variation in his tricks, because when he does showcase them, he looks electric. So, the ceiling is overall exciting. Give
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Beleke a runway and he can leave multiple players behind. Here he goes, Beleke, again.
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Straight through the middle for Minteh. Can he do it this time? No. Statistically, from a creative perspective, Beleke's profile is very concerning. Players like Lemina, Camara, Tchouaméni grade higher for through ball production. And when you dig into the
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numbers, you know, the biggest red flag is that multiple line-breaking passing. It's nonexistent, so that tells you something about his current level of decision-making. He's not really a midfielder who uses his passing to dismantle an opposition structure. So,
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this isn't Paul Pogba. He's not constantly scanning for that killer pass or manipul
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at a decent rate, you know, more so than Buendía, Rice, and Tchouaméni. But again, the end product isn't there. He's not generating many assists through his actions. And from the eye test, slightly more positive. Left-foot crossing when he drifts out to wide areas, pretty
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nice, good whip, particularly from that left side. Can generate good outswinging deliveries. Now, in terms of his through balls, when he's carrying the ball at a speed, he can slide passes into runners with good disguise and timing. It's not world
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class, but there is something there. Overall, the problem is consistency. He gives away the ball a lot when attempting progressive actions. So, overall, I'd say disappointing but intriguing. There is potential for him to be a bit more of a creative
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midfielder than what he is, but he's not someone who's going to become like a Regista type midfielder.
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Statistically, Beleke's defensive rate of 66 puts him in the average bracket this season. But, when you dig deeper, the picture is more encouraging.
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Positioning, carry defending, the ability to recover over distance all compare favorably with Mateus Fernandes.
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And the duel numbers are also solid. The weakness last season was the tackling and one-v-one defending. But, in terms of the historical data two seasons ago, his tackling was above average and his one-v-one defending was close to elite.
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So, I don't really have any concern about those numbers being a fundamental limitation. Now, in terms of the Wyscout data, it supports the idea that he's an active defender, produces good volume of defensive actions, wins around 60% of
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his duels, and generates plenty of interceptions. In terms of the eye test, he's a powerhouse to try and get past.
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He's strong enough to compete physically with some of the most explosive attacking midfielders, guys like Morgan Rogers. We've even heard players like Amadou Onana describe him as one of the strongest physical players he's ever encountered. Now, when Beleke is locked
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in, he can make himself incredibly difficult to beat one-v-one. He uses strength intelligently, rarely gets completely eliminated, and even when an opponent does get away from him, he's usually recovering and disrupting the attack and giving smart fouls away.
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There's also real ball-winning mentality here. He steps out, engages physically, and attacks the duel rather than just containing opponents. But, there is a concern, and that's his mobility off the ball and concentration. Now, when there's a clear target, when he has to
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track a specific runner, he's explosive. But, when he's required to recognize his out position and sprint back into the structure, there's moments when he just ambles. Now, I'm not questioning his football intelligence here. He can read things, position, he's he's good. It's
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the focus and the intensity when there's no one to mark. Anyway, there's raw ingredients here for him to become a genuinely formidable defensive midfielder. He just needs the consistency and the concentration to unlock it. Tactically, United have a lot
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of midfield combinations and Belieber gives them something they haven't really had, legs, power, aggression in every phase. And a 4-2-3-1, pairing him up with Santos would be interesting. Both can drop into the build-up, but they do it differently. Santos is the constantly
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offering for the ball, circulating, progressing through passing. Belieber is the disruptor, receiving under pressure and then using his power and dribbling to burst through the press. Different methods, but complementary. Now, if you pair him with Tielemans, you get
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something more aggressive. If that left-back tucks inside or can't provide the width, Belieber can drift into left channel and potentially become an additional crossing option as as that part of his game develops. And there's also serious goal threat in that
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pairing. Tielemans can shoot from distance while Belieber can also explode just outside the box. And against low blocks, that could be useful. Now, in terms of transition, United have lacked a genuine midfielder with the legs to lose the ball, sprint 30 yards
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backwards, win it again, and immediately drive the ball forward. Belieber can do that. And if United press in a 4-2-4, he's probably the midfielder I trust the most to jump aggressively onto the opposition. Pairing with someone like Santos who can sit, Belieber could
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become the hunter. But if I'm designing the midfield to maximize everyone's strengths, I would consider a 4-4-2 diamond or a 4-3-3 with Bruno as the false nine. Santos could become the deeper controller. Belieber gets to be the box-to-box destroyer. Mainoo or
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Tielemans could become the intelligent controller and Bruno gets the freedom to operate as the creative 10 and goal threat. The big problem, wing-backs. I don't think United currently have the elite wing-back profiles to make that system work consistently, but with the
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right personnel and players like Cunha and Belieber operating from wider, more fluid positions, I don't really think they're wingers, they're more wide strikers, it could become a fascinating 4-2-2-2 in possession. And Believer would be right at the heart of it.
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Runner ball-winner press-breaker and transition engine. In conclusion, as a United fan, I'm excited. I'm excited. And the reason why I'm excited is at that price, it's a no-brainer. It's a no-brainer signing because I think instantly he has the highest ceiling of any midfielder
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that Manchester United have. Now, that is based on the fact not on last season's numbers, which were terrible, but the season before that where he's having elite metrics across a number of different categories.
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But also the eye test was very, very impressive. So, I think if, you know, at his age, 22 years old, if he hits anywhere near the form that he hit, you know, a couple of seasons back, you've got a Champions League level midfielder
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knock out stadium, I'd say, in terms of floor level potentially. And in terms of his ceiling, he is one of those players, I think unlike an Ndombele, unlike a Koulibaly, these players I looked at and I thought, you guys are, you know,
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Champions League level players. I don't see you as world-class players. I think Believer in 3 to 4 years' time, if he was able to play like a couple of seasons back and that trajectory was to grow and he refines
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certain parts of his game, for example, the long passing, is more consistent with his shooting, um just his general football IQ just becomes more refined so he's less reliant on his physicality, you know, you're looking at potential world-class prospect there, for sure.
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Um But yeah, I think because the floor level and that price is good, it it's a it's an interesting signing for Manchester United. So, I think, you know, let me know in the comments below what you think that he could become,
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what you think his floor level is. Let me know if you want me to do next.
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Please like, share, and subscribe. I'll see you guys in the next time. Bye. Oh.
Topics:Carlos BalebaPremier Leaguemidfielder analysisfootball statspassing profiledribblingphysicalityshootingcreative midfielderplayer development
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