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Backtesting JJ Simon's NQ Strategy | Fair Value Theory

Backtesting JJ Simon's NQ 1-minute scalping strategy using fair value theory to validate its profitability and mechanics.

Key Takeaways

  • JJ Simon's NQ scalping strategy shows promise with a mechanical approach based on fair value theory and market structure.
  • Displacement candles with decisive closes and breaks in structure are key entry signals for the strategy.
  • The strategy performs best during specific trading windows, especially the first 90 minutes after New York open.
  • Risk management with defined stop loss and profit targets is essential for consistent results.
  • Independent backtesting is crucial to verify claims and adapt strategies to individual trading styles.

What the video covers

  • The video evaluates JJ Simon's NQ futures 1-minute scalping strategy, focusing on fair value theory and market structure breaks.
  • JJ Simon is a new trader claiming $1.2 million in payouts over 12-13 months, trading mainly the New York open and afternoon sessions.
  • The strategy centers on identifying displacement candles and breaks in market structure to trade mean reversion or continuation moves.
  • Displacement candles are defined mechanically by wick size and decisiveness of the candle close, with a focus on less than 20% counter wick.
  • The video tests the strategy without bias, aiming to verify if it is profitable and consistent over multiple trades and time periods.
  • Key trading windows include the first 90 minutes after New York open, a 2:00-3:00 p.m. afternoon session, and sometimes the Asia session.
  • Stop loss and profit targets are roughly 25 ticks stop loss and 38.5 ticks profit, with some discretionary elements in trade management.
  • The presenter discusses the importance of mechanical rules to improve consistency and reduce subjectivity in entries and exits.
  • Testing results show a roughly 52% win rate and 1.66 profit factor after filtering initial trades and adjusting parameters.
  • The video encourages viewers to validate strategies independently and not rely solely on bold claims or unverified proof.

Answers

Questions about this video

What is the core concept behind JJ Simon's NQ scalping strategy?

The strategy is based on fair value theory, using displacement candles and breaks in market structure to identify mean reversion or continuation trades on the 1-minute NQ futures chart.

During which time periods does JJ Simon primarily trade this strategy?

He mainly trades during the first 90 minutes after the New York open, an afternoon session starting around 2:00 p.m. to about 3:00 p.m., and sometimes during the Asia session.

How does the video presenter define a 'decisive' displacement candle for entries?

A decisive candle is one where the counter wick is less than 20% of the candle's range, indicating a strong close in the direction of the trade, with candle size being more discretionary.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00
Speaker A
I'm honestly going to say, like, this JJ guy might be legit. I hope he doesn't come out like in a week on JJ's a fraud.
00:06
Speaker A
But, we put his strategy to the test with no bias, no, um, expectations. Definitely a promising strategy that if you love 1-minute timeframe NQ scalping, um, could be a strategy for you.
00:22
Speaker A
New guy in town that's, uh, one of my trading friends shared with me, uh, JJ Simon, somebody you've probably never heard of before. He just started his YouTube channel like a couple of weeks ago, but pretty bold claims, uh, $1.2
00:33
Speaker A
million in payouts that he's claimed he's made over the last, um, 12-13 months or so. Obviously, you know, it's not fully verified on our end. I think he has done a decent job so far of showing like live logins. He showed like
00:45
Speaker A
a bunch of different bank accounts and different things like that. I hope he continues to show proof of the like actual live logins and not, you know, anything that can be edited or anything like that, but, um, but yeah, he claims
00:56
Speaker A
to have made tons of payouts from all kinds of different futures prop firms, Topstep, uh, E8, Funded Next was, um, that what that video he just recently shared. And he trades a NQ, uh, 1-minute scalping strategy. Uh, this guy's like
01:08
Speaker A
20 years old. I think he, uh, he said he studied quantitative finance in, uh, in in college and he's tried to, uh, apply some of the things he's learned from college to his trading. So, what is his his strategy? I'll kind of break it
01:21
Speaker A
down, um, as usual, and I've got a strategy PDF PDF for you guys that I shared in the chats, um, as well as, um, if you guys are watching the recording, you guys can always, um, access this from the link below. But, uh, yeah, I'm
01:33
Speaker A
going to go over his strategy. I obviously, like, you know, for most of these strategies we'll try to identify like if there's a couple little tweaks we can do to make it a little more mechanical so that it's easier for you
01:43
Speaker A
guys to more consistently identify and execute it. Um, you know, I'll I'll, you know, mention a few things like that.
01:48
Speaker A
But, very high level, uh, before we get into it, you know, just looking at his chart visually, um, fair value theory is his general strategy and he's identified a few points in time where you can kind of trade a early continuation away from
02:00
Speaker A
that price and expect to, you know, more often than not mean revert back to that price. And these references price can often be like New York open at 9:30. Uh, he also trades like a 2:00 p.m. like kind of afternoon open, which is
02:12
Speaker A
interesting. Um, he also trades Asia session, um, the open of Asia session. And I think he's, uh, based in the US, so he doesn't trade London. But, there's several, uh, you know, periods you can test. That's like that the basis of the
02:23
Speaker A
strategy and we'll get into like the actual specifics of it in a second. So, what is fair value theory? Let's, uh, break down a couple educational components first. Um, many of you should be familiar with what is a market
02:34
Speaker A
structure break, um, or a break in structure, um, but a couple demonstrations. So, market structure break is really if price is in a downtrend and you see a close above a previous, uh, kind of wick high. That's a bullish market structure break. It
02:46
Speaker A
indicates a potential reversal in the trend. Um, you might also hear a break in structure, BOS, which is more of like a trend continuation. So, like, whereas this is a market structure break to the upside, a break in structure would be
02:58
Speaker A
like the close below this low right here, or we're continuing to the downside, or a close below this low here, we're continuing to the downside.
03:04
Speaker A
So, breaks in structures and market structure breaks we use pretty interchangeably, but all you all you got to know is it's a kind of break of a previous level with a close, not just a wick past it.
03:14
Speaker A
Um, and so, uh, yeah, we'll get to you all your comments in a second. Um, we'll see if the strategy holds up. Obviously, with most of these videos, uh, especially these claims, like it's a pretty bold claim. Uh, at the end of the
03:24
Speaker A
day, it's really important to validate any of these strategies and see if it's actually legit instead of just trusting what everybody says, so that's exactly what we're going to do today and see if it's, um, actually profitable or, you
03:34
Speaker A
know, has promise or not. Um, the next thing is like, uh, this concept of a displacement candle. And in his, um, kind of video, he talks about it being like a large candle and kind of like a decisive candle. Um, how decisive a
03:47
Speaker A
candle closes is something you can't actually make a very mechanical definition around. So, we can use this like counter wick definition where basically for a bullish candle that top wick, if you measure from like the open to that kind of the high, how much of
03:59
Speaker A
that, um, kind of range does the wick make up? And like a decisive close you could say, "Okay, I don't want that counter wick to be more than 20% of that range." That can indicate that that's a really strong close. You're not seeing
04:10
Speaker A
much of a counter wick at all. Um, the size of the candle is a little more discretionary. That's something that's a little harder to make a mechanical rule set around. So, for my testing specifically, I've tried to focus mostly
04:21
Speaker A
on like the decisiveness of the candle. Um, obviously, if you tried to figure out a way to incorporate size, too, that could work. But, just to you show you visually, like, this green candle right here, this is a very decisive candle,
04:32
Speaker A
but it's not very strong. Uh, or sorry, it's not very large. Like, it's relatively small compared to these. This one right here is kind of the best where it's both decisive and large relative to kind of the previous candles. But,
04:42
Speaker A
again, that's a little discretionary, hard to, you know, make a rule around what large is or not. Um, same here. We have a a fairly large candle, um, that also closes decisively. So, these are kind of displacement candle definitions and then
04:54
Speaker A
vice versa for shorts. Um, this candle right here is a good example of a non, um, decisive candle where there was actually a pretty big counter wick, more than 20%. So, this would like not meet our criteria mechanical
05:06
Speaker A
criteria for like a decisive candle, um, closing in our direction. Whereas this one right here, um, did have a small counter wick. Same thing. This candle, this candle, like, very small counter wicks that are less than 20% and again,
05:18
Speaker A
I kind of have some commentary about, you know, this is a pretty big size, this is a relatively small size, but it's it's discretionary enough that I think it's better it's going to be better to focus on the decisiveness
05:26
Speaker A
versus the size, um, when testing. Um, so, few strategy details and then yeah, I'll get to you guys' questions.
05:33
Speaker A
If you guys have questions at any points, uh, feel free to, um, ask. I'll, you know, adjust everything I can.
05:39
Speaker A
Um but we'll talk about the general parameters. Obviously, this is NQ 1-minute timeframe. He's 20 years old. He's probably really good at first-person shooters, would be my guess. And he's trading 1-minute NQ timeframe, NQ futures. Um, so, this is obviously a
05:52
Speaker A
futures specific strategy. Um, he trades basically the market open, uh, through about 11 to about 90 minutes after New York open. And then for the the kind of afternoon window, he'll start straight charting at around 2:00 p.m. He didn't
06:05
Speaker A
he didn't specifically say how long he trades. From my testing, I think it's probably best to cut off around 3:00 if you're trading that afternoon window.
06:11
Speaker A
And then again, you could also test the first 90 minutes of Asia session, London open. Um, you could also test other assets to see if the same price theory works on others, but he specifically trades NQ, um, during a New York open,
06:24
Speaker A
New York p.m. And I think he does sometimes trade Asia Asia. We'll talk a little bit more that, uh, a little bit later. So, again, fair value theory, like I mentioned, um, his the whole concept is if there's no new information
06:34
Speaker A
for the market to price in, it's most likely like kind of already decided what's fa
06:45
Speaker A
afternoon often act as fair value for that. Um, in terms of timing, he generally looks for continuations kind of away from the fair value the first 10-15 minutes, um, after the open and then look for mean reversions, uh,
06:57
Speaker A
back to that fair value the rest of the trade window. In terms of the entry model, it's pretty sim- simple, um, not too complex.
07:03
Speaker A
Obviously, it's 1-minute timeframe, so it's fast, but overall, it's it's pretty simple. So, um, he says in his video he does he will trade, um, displacements only where like you're you only have that displacement candle, um, but he
07:16
Speaker A
said the best combination is when it's displacement plus a break in structure. Um, so, I don't know if there's a great example for the if you're upside here.
07:24
Speaker A
But, you can see the difference between these candles. We have, uh, kind of displacement that breaks structure here.
07:29
Speaker A
The second example is just the displacement candle, no real structure break. And the second one that worked had a displacement plus break. So, I decided to stick with the best. Okay?
07:37
Speaker A
So, we're going to use the break the, uh, break of structure and decisive candle for our kind of entry criteria, either for the continu- continuation away from the fair value price or coming back to it, the market structure break
07:50
Speaker A
after the fact. Um, and so, you can see kind of bullish and bearish examples right here.
07:55
Speaker A
Um, and then, yeah, somebody said they thought it was the 9:29 candle. It's basically market open. So, like, what what price, um, opens, um, at, uh, when you, you know, see the price. And he he usually hides it highlights like the
08:08
Speaker A
first candle. Um, so, it's basically that the what price opens, um, kind of at market open.
08:14
Speaker A
And then, um, in terms of the stop loss distance, this is another thing that, um, he didn't he he says he basically uses like most often a 25 tick stop loss and like a 38.5, um, tick tick profit for
08:26
Speaker A
1.5 R. Um, but he did mention there's like more of maybe if it's more volatile, then he'll do like a 50 tick stop loss and 75 ticks. So, to give you guys like a very mechanical way to adjust your stop loss distance based on
08:38
Speaker A
how volatile price is, you can use the average true range indicator, which is kind of a a volatility indicator, essentially. And, um, use that the level of the ATR to determine like how big of size your stop loss should be. So, if
08:51
Speaker A
it's over 20, like, price is really moving, um, 50 tick stop loss is going to be a good, um, stop loss distance.
08:57
Speaker A
And obviously, 1.5 R would be 75. 7 to 20 was kind of the range that I was, uh, testing and playing around with. Seems like a pretty good range, um, that happens in most of the time for that 25 tick stop loss, um, in the 38
09:10
Speaker A
and 1/2 tick tick profit. And then if it's below 7 ATR, this is most often in the New York p.m. session or probably Asia session sometimes, too, if you're trading that. Um, it's probably better to tighten it up a little further and
09:20
Speaker A
use like a 16 and 1/2 versus 24.75. And you might be wondering like where these numbers come from. And, um, the interesting way he obviously trades prop firms, uh, futures prop firms, and these, um, distances are specifically designed so that if you have, um,
09:35
Speaker A
a, let's look at this first example. If you have a pretty wide stop loss with 50 ticks, one contract on NQ is going to equate to a $1,000 risk per trade.
09:43
Speaker A
So, the these levels are almost like designed to work specifically with NQ contract amounts.
09:49
Speaker A
So, one contract with a 50 tick stop loss equates to $1,000 risk per trade.
09:53
Speaker A
Two contracts with a 25 tick equates to $1,000 risk per trade, or three contracts with a 16.5 tick stop loss.
10:00
Speaker A
1,000. So, like it's very easy to adjust the quantity based on the stop loss levels.
10:06
Speaker A
A few other rules we definitely need to go over and then we'll look at a few specific examples.
10:10
Speaker A
From my testing so far, and this is something you could validate as well, it may be best to avoid the first three minutes after the 9:30 open.
10:19
Speaker A
A lot of people get pretty scared trading market open anyways, but it may actually not be worth trading those first three minutes if you're getting chopped up too often and it's causing like too many losses.
10:29
Speaker A
Something you can test and validate yourself, but from my testing so far that seems like it may be best to wait like the first three minutes before taking these continuations.
10:38
Speaker A
Um, he didn't mention it specifically in his video, but looking at some some other examples that I found, he often will have like the VWAP on his chart as well, so that could potentially be another confluence to test and maybe find out
10:49
Speaker A
how he uses that to as a potential confluence or not. I [snorts] didn't personally test Asia session. I just focused on New York session for my testing so far, but if you're going to trade Asia, he says he really only likes
10:59
Speaker A
to trade it if there's like a surge in volume and volatility. Otherwise, he doesn't like to trade it cuz it's generally like pretty flat and choppy.
11:06
Speaker A
Same thing with second attempts. If you he he in his video, he showed second attempts pretty frequently. You know, I had a loss here, took another try, had a loss here, took another try. With FX Replay, the great thing is you can use
11:17
Speaker A
tags to see Sorry, let's come back to the PDF. You can use the tags to see like is it worth taking the second attempts or not. So, you can collect the data and confirm if you should try it or
11:26
Speaker A
not. Um, he also mentioned you can trade news with this strategy. The 8:30 a.m. red folder news. You could trade mean reversion back to the price before news.
11:35
Speaker A
Something else you could try again. I didn't specifically test those. It's something you guys can test with the FX Replay like go to news feature if you wanted.
11:43
Speaker A
Um, and then let's see a couple other things. Oh, yeah. In his video, he shows not in this specific example, it's probably a little earlier.
11:52
Speaker A
Let me see if I can find where it is. He shows like a few days of examples in here.
11:57
Speaker A
I'm going to try and find what I'm which one I want to reference. He'll trade like additional continuations after price comes back. Um, maybe this is a good one.
12:07
Speaker A
So, price has already moved away from the and already kind of reverted back and now he's taking subsequent continuations and mean reversion. So, in my testing, I tried to focus mostly on like kind of this first move, the
12:19
Speaker A
initial move away and the move back. But, you could also test and see if these like kind of second moves are also worth testing whether that's another continuation or maybe it comes back up to the other upside now and you can mean
12:30
Speaker A
revert back to it. So, you could also test with additional kind of trades after that initial move away and mean reversion, but I just try to focus on just that first move to keep it simple so far today. So, that's what that bullet
12:42
Speaker A
means. Timing wise again, this is an optimization opportunity I'm seeing from some of the data that I'm starting to test. It may be best to just stop trading that second hour after the window. So, maybe only the first 30
12:55
Speaker A
minutes of New York open and maybe only the first hour in that in the afternoon window. It's again an optimization. As you get large sample size of data, you can optimize and see like what the best times are to trade.
13:05
Speaker A
And then I'd already mentioned you could trade mean reversion either side of the fair value. So, pretty simple checklist.
13:11
Speaker A
We're waiting waiting for for continuations. We're waiting for either a break of structure or market structure break away from the fair value fair value price and looking for that combination of displacement candle plus that break for our entry. Or if price has already
13:25
Speaker A
moved away from fair value price, we're looking for the same entry model back to it essentially. Using the ATR to determine our stop loss and just going for a fixed 1.5 R no trade management.
13:34
Speaker A
So, couple examples and then we'll dive right into FX Replay. So, we have actually on this day both trades played out. So, 9:30 market open happened here and shortly after we had a really nice market structure break to
13:44
Speaker A
the upside. Price had previously been trending to the downside. Our ATR was between 7 and 20, so I was using a 25 tick stop loss here. Didn't really get close to it in this case, but moved up nicely to take profit after we
13:56
Speaker A
had a nice decisive candle plus the break. And then as price came up a little further, took a little while, we eventually had a nice decisive candle to the downside that also broke structure here. So, we got our kind of two two
14:06
Speaker A
checklists for the for the trade. Same stop loss, the ATR was still in in that zone. So, same 25 tick stop loss. The take profit was pretty much right back to the fair value price and caught two wins on this specific day.
14:20
Speaker A
Now we have an example from that afternoon session. Similar price action. Obviously, he's trading in the same concept in pretty much all of these situations. And again, we have a break in structure here. I think price was previously trending to the upside. So,
14:32
Speaker A
break of structure with that decisive candle gives us our entry. Stop loss calculated based on the ATR. Ended up catching a nice win and the same thing, wait for that market structure break with a decisive candle to return back
14:45
Speaker A
towards the fair value price. So, not that complicated of a entry model, but the timing of it and I think the optimizations and obviously like is it something realistic for you to execute is probably the bigger question that you need to ask. So, let's
14:58
Speaker A
have an FX Replay and do some validation. I've obviously been testing this on myself.
15:03
Speaker A
So, I want to get have someone from the chat give me a totally random point in time in the last three years or something. We're going to back test a totally random point today.
15:11
Speaker A
To do Simon at fair value theory stream. So, somebody in the chat give me like a random day in the last like three years.
15:20
Speaker A
I'll pick like a random point in time for this. I'm going to load one of my previous layouts.
15:29
Speaker A
Let's do this one. March 4th, 2025. All right. All right, March 4th. All right, and then we'll see how far we get.
15:39
Speaker A
We'll we'll at least get through like, you know, a few days. [clears throat] Nice, somebody shared their birthday.
15:46
Speaker A
All right. So, I've got this layout that I set up previously. I'm going to go ahead and make a copy of it like I usually do. So, I'll make a copy of this.
15:54
Speaker A
Make sure that I have a fresh layout. So, this is stream. Got to my layout named. I'll delete all my previous drawing tools so we have a totally fresh layout. And then indicators that I have on the chart is
16:06
Speaker A
pretty simple. In this lower section here, I have this ATR. Which I I think you can type ATR. Yeah, you just type ATR, average true range.
16:14
Speaker A
It's basically like kind of giving you an indication of how volatile the price action is or if it's smaller candles, so it's going to be a smaller so the value on the right kind of shows you the current ATR value which we'll use for
16:25
Speaker A
our stop loss distance. Then I also have like this volume overlay. We're not specifically using it again. If you're trading like Asia session, I think it's going to be more important to like watch for volume spike or something like that.
16:35
Speaker A
Otherwise, maybe pass on the session, but that's you know, also something you can play around with. So, I've got couple different sessions in here. I was testing some other stuff this weekend. So, let's make sure we update this specific for the
16:46
Speaker A
strategy. So, we want to be going to 9:30 for New York sessions. We don't care about London specifically today.
16:52
Speaker A
And then I think there's like a New York p.m. session that you can do 1400 down here. So, we can save both of those out to have access to both of them.
16:59
Speaker A
And we'll just jump right next to the next 9:30 open. And reset our chart.
17:06
Speaker A
So, 1-minute time frame NQ, we are good to go. And yeah, let's see what we have. So, you can mark out the reference price kind of at market open. He usually shades like the first candle, but you can just draw a line. Either one works.
17:17
Speaker A
And let's see if we can find um, some trades. So again, I'm going to I'm going to personally be waiting like for a couple minutes just cuz I'll show you that at the end after some testing I've done. It seems like it's best to wait.
17:28
Speaker A
So, I'm going to wait like a couple minutes and then look for that decisive candle to see if we can get a a break either side. It's a very large candle.
17:35
Speaker A
It's not super decisive yet. I use this fib retracement tool. Show you guys the settings specifically. So, you're using 0, 2, and 1 for the fib retracement. You can use one color. It's up to you if you want the
17:46
Speaker A
prices or not. I think it's easy, but yeah, you can apply this fib level from basically the open of the candle to the low and see like did it close decisively or not. So, in this case we had too large
17:57
Speaker A
of a candle wick. So, this doesn't meet our mechanical decisive candle definition. Trade could work out, but we're going to wait for a little more clear criteria. This actually might be might be one right here.
18:09
Speaker A
So, we do have a decisive candle now. However, we haven't really broken structure with this candle. You want to see the break of the candle and the decisive decisive candle in the same instance, whereas the break kind of
18:22
Speaker A
happened this first candle and now we're in a decisive candle. So, we may just need to wait for a market structure or sorry, mean reversion in this case.
18:29
Speaker A
Again, very strong decisive candle, but we do not have the structure to give us the break. So, we may just kind of miss this trade. The move happened like in a couple of candles there.
18:38
Speaker A
Unfortunately, it just didn't meet our specific criteria. Just for for kicks, let's see the ATR on this big candle we had down here was was like 26. This would have been a pretty large stop loss. And and a pro tip for
18:50
Speaker A
you guys, if you're if you're trading the strategy, I really recommend setting these um, thresholds on the on the long and short position tools and then save them as templates. So, I already have like some templates saved out. So, this 50 tick
19:02
Speaker A
stop loss, I can literally just right click it, apply the template, and then place the order. It's very quick to apply the different stop loss distances.
19:09
Speaker A
So, this this If you would have taken the less decisive break, this one would have been a loss. Didn't really go to our take profit.
19:16
Speaker A
This mean reversion might have might have worked out, but again, we want to wait for the highest probability setups that have both the break and the decisive candle on the same candle.
19:24
Speaker A
Okay, there's news. So, yeah. It has done what he expected. It's kind of pushed away, come back, pushed away, come back. So, really the only play left for this session, you know, if you wanted to trade the full, you know, 90 minutes after open is
19:37
Speaker A
a mean reversion back to this price. So, we could see if it if it pushes up, we could look for mean reversion, but looks like it's really just hanging around there. So, probably just better off going to the afternoon session now.
19:48
Speaker A
Let's go to New York session. And again, we'll mark out the opening price Kind of at the start of the session, look for a continuation away from it. Um the afternoon session from my testing didn't matter as much if you waited a
20:01
Speaker A
few candles or not. So this like New York market open is like crazy volatile.
20:05
Speaker A
Um but afternoon it seems like even if it's like the first candle of the PM session that seemed to was fine uh to take if it met the criteria. So I think we finally have a a trade here. So we
20:14
Speaker A
have a break in structure right here. We took out this high. We've been in an uptrend. We have formed a swing high here. We pushed through it.
20:21
Speaker A
Now we're just going to verify the decisive candle. Uh looks pretty decisive to me but we can apply our fib just to like double check.
20:28
Speaker A
So from the high to low it's very close and this is where the price levels might come into play. 2606.25 and it's literally right at that. So um I'll let you guys decide if we want to allow it to be exactly equal amount.
20:40
Speaker A
We'll go ahead and take it. Um I think in the PDF I said it it can't be more than. Um so we'll uh apply the and then our what's our ATR? ATR is 23. So this is also still pretty volatile. Um so
20:50
Speaker A
apply the 50 tick stop loss. Pretty big stop loss. Um but we'll we've got our uh levels applied. We'll place the order here.
20:57
Speaker A
I've been using entry trigger one for the continuations, entry trigger two for the uh meaner versions. So we'll do that and let me just let it play out. See what happens. Nice. Got a win.
21:08
Speaker A
Um I'm going to make sure there's no questions there. Somebody mentioned there's also like a candle strength indicator um that they've used in the past. Um me honestly you guys you guys could probably uh code now that we have
21:18
Speaker A
the custom indicators in FX Replay. Um you could probably code this logic into an indicator um and like I've I've in the past you know tried a little bit of coding and like you can sometimes use like you know if you want to distinguish
21:29
Speaker A
the decisive candles or not like make them have a white body or something like that um to make it easily visibly to see but for now with testing you can obviously just use the fib retracement uh tools and it's super easy. Um doesn't
21:39
Speaker A
take that long. You just just check it out when you're testing. Okay. Might have gone one too far.
21:44
Speaker A
So did we form a swing low here? That's the only thing. I'm not really seeing like a clear structural low. We've kind of just like slowly melted up. We didn't form like a decisive low here. Like if you were really getting cute you could
21:56
Speaker A
say like we did kind of go up come down. Um but I personally like visibly I'm not seeing like a clear wick low. Um so this probably doesn't quite meet the like eye test for me. Um I'd rather see like a
22:06
Speaker A
clear market structure break. And it might work out. It probably will work out. But I want to try and like visibly see. Okay. So this is like a better definition but now we're pretty we're already like pretty close to the
22:18
Speaker A
meaner version level. So in cases like this I I was was really like not trying to take the trade if we're already pretty much like at our target. Like if we're using um the 50 tick take profit 50 tick stop loss here like you'd have
22:29
Speaker A
to go all the way back through and it's just like a little lower probability than maybe if we were taking it up here.
22:34
Speaker A
Um So this trade you know would have been a little more in line with the fair value theory. Um and I guess like if the take profit level is like a little bit past the fair value price it's probably okay.
22:44
Speaker A
He definitely has some examples where he he does do that but if we're already like super close to it I think these trades are probably going to be a little lower probability. We'll go ahead and take it um just to see but I do think
22:55
Speaker A
like it's going to be better if you if you're already kind of away from the from the level a little bit. Um so we'll say this is entry trigger two for our meaner versions.
23:04
Speaker A
And I guess another way if if it comes back to the fair value price you could um go break even at that point.
23:10
Speaker A
Um yeah we got super close to our stop loss and yeah got a loss there. So yeah I do think um in my testing I probably wouldn't have taken this. I I took it today just to show you guys kind of what the trades
23:19
Speaker A
would look like but overall um kind of had the right idea didn't just didn't quite come back to our fair value theory. Um so very deci- very uh large candle to the downside but not decisive and it's also within that first kind of
23:31
Speaker A
3 minutes. Also pretty large candle. Um So waiting a little bit here. We are kind of coming back into the price. Um so we could potentially see a continue still see a continuation away.
23:44
Speaker A
Um we are kind of reverting around the level but not seeing any specific This is probably pretty close to decisive candle but I can already tell it wasn't quite. I've been testing this enough that I could see it wasn't quite um a
23:57
Speaker A
decisive candle. There's a little bit was a little bit too much of a counter wick.
24:01
Speaker A
Um so now we're looking for mostly just meaner versions. We want to see price pushing away um from the zone either either side and looking for a meaner version.
24:08
Speaker A
So see if we can get some sort of structure break with a decisive candle before our trading window ends. We've still got a little bit time.
24:18
Speaker A
Okay. We're continuing to push up. No strong candle. That's a very strong decisive candle. Hasn't quite cleared our structure yet. Um so again doesn't quite meet the combined criteria that we have um for the break plus the um this
24:31
Speaker A
decisive candle plus the break. Um but does look like the right kind of candle we want and we may just be after yeah we've already kind of 30 minutes into our I'm sorry we have 30 minutes left.
24:40
Speaker A
Um we could test. So we still have a little bit time we could look for a meaner version if it meets the criteria.
24:47
Speaker A
You can see here like even though we had the the kind of strong displacement candle since there wasn't a structure break it didn't work out. Um so that's why the combination of the two is going to be higher probability for sure. Uh so
24:57
Speaker A
this is probably good enough. Um it's definitely um not as good as like this strong candle here. Um but if we do have a really decisive candle here and it did form the break in structure. We have now
25:08
Speaker A
closed below this previous structure level. So I think this is probably good enough. Um our ATR at this point is still 26. Um so we're still going to stick with the 50 tick. Um we're probably going to be 50 ticks alive if
25:18
Speaker A
this is 2025. Um So we'll go for this one uh with entry trigger two for our meaner versions. Um again you could use additional tags for other confluences or anything else you want.
25:30
Speaker A
No trade management. Just simply letting it play out. Front ran our tick profit by two [laughter] couple ticks.
25:36
Speaker A
And eventually got TP. Nice. Um so that would have been a pretty emotional roller coaster if you were taking that one but eventually played out. He doesn't do any trade management as far as I know. He just lets it play out um
25:46
Speaker A
win or loss. Um somebody asked a specific question what about the large green candle on this uh this day? Uh large green candle at 10 to 10:05 I think they said. Um 10:05 right here.
25:58
Speaker A
Maybe right here. Um Okay. One of these times. So there's a large green candle right here and this is where um I'd mentioned in the PDF um specifically you could take additional continuations after price returns to fair value. Um
26:13
Speaker A
but you'd probably want to use a separate tag. So like when I've been testing he he said specifically in his video he really tries to look for um continuations the first like 10 minutes or so. Um so this is like you know
26:25
Speaker A
34 33 minutes after open. It's it's pretty you know it's it's a it's definitely after the period that he started. Um so you could you could test these and see like okay if it's come back to the zone and we see a
26:36
Speaker A
continuation maybe I use entry trigger three for those like kind of second move continuations or something like that.
26:42
Speaker A
And you can collect data to see like are those worth taking or is that first move really like the best thing to take? Same thing like we're taking it we took a meaner version short here but say you
26:52
Speaker A
were in the session we saw this meaner version short and you saw like uh an opportunity for a meaner version long like still in your session you could also take these kind of second move meaner versions and see if those are
27:02
Speaker A
worth taking too. So recommend using different tags um and see as we usually do we'll mark out the reference price so it's easy to see visually.
27:11
Speaker A
You could probably code an indicator to do that too but it's not that hard to just draw a line.
27:16
Speaker A
Um so nice decisive candle. Nice structure break. Let's see if it's decisive or not.
27:23
Speaker A
Yep. No the counter wick is less than 20% so we got everything we need here for a continuation.
27:28
Speaker A
What's our ATR? ATR is 22 still so still going with the 50 tick stop loss. Um so we'll take this one with entry trigger one.
27:39
Speaker A
Place the order. Let's see what we got here. Come chop around a bit. Getting closer to take profit. Nice win.
27:48
Speaker A
So now uh we can look for the meaner version back. Um we're looking for the same same price signature. The break with the strong decisive candle which we have right there.
27:56
Speaker A
Check our ATR quickly. It's 20.25 so it's just over the 20 threshold. If it's under 20 then we would drop it um to the 25 tick but we'll stick with our 50 tick. Um can try and look for a move
28:06
Speaker A
back to the level. Uh we'll say this is entry trigger two for our meaner versions.
28:12
Speaker A
And we'll see what we got in this case. Chopped around a little bit and nice win again. We're on a nice little win streak. I will say like um the thing that I like about this strategy that I
28:21
Speaker A
haven't seen in a lot of the strategies I test is it's it's not going for the most precision in terms of stop loss that other strategies have where you'll use the recent structural low or maybe even like to get a little more risk
28:33
Speaker A
reward you use like the body low. Um he's not as concerned about being so precise with getting the exact right entry or the exact right stop loss. He's just like trying to say okay I think in general price is going to go this way so
28:45
Speaker A
as long as I give myself enough wiggle room to to catch that move then I hopefully I'll be right more than I'm wrong. Um so that's like kind of the the thing I do like about these like um ATR
28:55
Speaker A
based stop losses. It's it's something you could play around with other strategies too if you keep getting barely stopped out on the move when you generally have the right idea. It may be better to use a little more general um
29:05
Speaker A
kind of numbers based um stop loss instead of always using structure or something like that.
29:10
Speaker A
Um And then yeah it's obviously going to be hard like hard to execute in a live market for sure. Um but again um outside of the like New York open trades where you do tend to have to be pretty quick.
29:21
Speaker A
Like price often you know does give you a little bit of time to execute this.
29:26
Speaker A
Like even though it entered here you had like seven whole minutes to enter at this price. Um obviously sometimes it's going to go immediately and you'll just like you might miss it. Um but even here you had a couple couple other tries. So
29:37
Speaker A
even if you know by the time you see it it's too late you could still see if you can catch like a limit order at the end at the same price before it takes profit. I bet you'd still they'll to
29:45
Speaker A
catch a good amount of the trades Even if you couldn't execute like a right at the exact um point that it triggers.
29:52
Speaker A
So this is again where you could potentially track a kind of second move continuation super strong candle.
30:00
Speaker A
Definitely broke a lot of of structure right here. Decent chance that it has continuation.
30:05
Speaker A
I'm not going to specifically record it because I haven't been recording these testing. So I just don't really have the data on them, but this is definitely something if you want to increase the trade frequency even more, you could also test
30:15
Speaker A
these kind of second move continuations and mean reversions. Does look like it would moved a little bit, but probably would have cut a loss off that one. The The candle is like already too large.
30:26
Speaker A
So it's probably good enough. Again, I don't want to trade past the you know first hour of the afternoon session. We kind of already got two wins. So probably you should probably be happy with that. So it is specific criteria that you need
30:37
Speaker A
the break and the decisive candle on the same candle. We didn't have the decisiveness on this candle. We don't technically have a break on this candle. So this move might work out, but you know also might not have worked out. So
30:51
Speaker A
waiting for those specific criteria to be met probably going to improve your probability over time. But yeah, the fair fair value theory played out.
30:59
Speaker A
It moved away, came back to it. Now we're moving back up. We can still look for a mean reversion for for a little while. It's a really good candle. Didn't quite break our structure yet though.
31:08
Speaker A
That doesn't quite meet our criteria. This one might be good enough. Let's see if it's decisive. Pretty sure it is.
31:13
Speaker A
20 at 152. Yeah, we're definitely below that level we needed for the decisiveness. So what's our ATR at? We are at 35 ATR man. This is super volatile.
31:24
Speaker A
This might be getting close to when the tariff stuff was happening last year. Can't remember. But yeah, definitely 50 tick stop loss kind of coincides with this candle high. And let's see if we can catch a mean reversion back to
31:36
Speaker A
our entry with entry trigger two. We got close to our take profits. Nice win. So yeah, the stop loss distances have been working great. There's been quite a few trades where we did come into a little bit of
31:50
Speaker A
drawdown, but because we were adjusting the stop appropriately for the volatility, we were able to kind of you know survive and and wait for a win.
31:59
Speaker A
So really happy with that. And now we can go to our PM session. New York PM session.
32:05
Speaker A
Okay, there we go. That's exactly what we want. Now let's just see if it's like too close to the level.
32:09
Speaker A
Our ATR is 24 still. So we're still using our 50 tick stop loss. And again, just to show you guys how you can adjust that.
32:17
Speaker A
I have this template for 50 ticks, but if I wanted to use 25, I have this template. I can easily like very quickly modify like the levels. It's super fast.
32:25
Speaker A
And if you have these templates saved, you just apply the template and then place the order. It's super quick to apply these different stop loss thresholds depending on what you need. So again, this is a example where like the take profit is
32:37
Speaker A
quite a bit of ways beyond the fair value level. So either you would probably want to pass on this or I don't know. Another option you have is if it taps if it taps the fair value price, maybe at least go break even at that
32:48
Speaker A
point. So maybe that's what we'll try this time to at least make sure it doesn't like come back on us if it cuz I think he said like it's pretty random after it comes back to the fair value
32:58
Speaker A
levels. This is entry trigger two for a mean reversion. We'll pull out our fair value price again just a little bit further.
33:05
Speaker A
So we did tap it like to the tick pretty much and came back. So like I said, maybe we'll go break even here. But yeah, the fact that our take profit was kind of beyond the fair value price just
33:14
Speaker A
made this one a little lower probability I think. So it's good to the next session. Again, this is why we're trying to avoid the first few minutes of New York open because it can be super volatile. Really nice
33:25
Speaker A
break candle here, but probably not decisive enough. We would need 830.5 and it's 820. Actually this is.
33:34
Speaker A
Yeah, it was decisive enough. I didn't think it was, but it did pass the level.
33:38
Speaker A
So we can use our short here for continuation. And we finally have an ATR below 20. Barely.
33:45
Speaker A
19.7. So this is where we could use the 25 tick stop loss. It looks a little tight like obviously compared to the candle.
33:52
Speaker A
This is maybe a little higher probability to stop us out. We'll see what happens this one.
33:57
Speaker A
Actually worked out. So I thought it was going to be 50/50 cuz we didn't have a lot of room for it to come back, but just going for that one and a half hour, we were able to catch it catch it for a
34:07
Speaker A
nice win. And then yeah, not probably not going to have a whole opportunity for mean reversion. It happened like very quick.
34:13
Speaker A
And again, this potentially could have been an entry for us, but at that point ATR is back over 20. So yeah, our take profit is like way on the other side now of the ATR.
34:26
Speaker A
So it's going to be probably a little lower probability. But we can see if it pushes away either side and see if we get a mean reversion after the fact.
34:34
Speaker A
So let's see if we can get a mean reversion that meets our criteria. Looking for a structural break plus the decisive candle.
34:41
Speaker A
Playing forward a little bit. I might have missed one. Let's see. So we had a little little baby swing high right here and a break above it. I don't know if this is decisive enough.
34:53
Speaker A
Let's measure it. So the level is 19732.5. So it did not quite. It was like one point off.
35:00
Speaker A
And so I'm basically like looking at the price level on the 0.2 to see like okay, price needed to close at or above this level. And then like for the current candle price, you can see what the price
35:12
Speaker A
is. So you can basically compare those and see pretty quickly if it's decisive or not.
35:16
Speaker A
Hopefully that's helpful. Or obviously make an indicator for it. So it didn't quite meet the criteria there. We're still continuing to wait for the specific criteria we need.
35:25
Speaker A
Strong candle not quite decisive enough I can tell. We may be getting We still got like 30 minutes I guess. So again, I was seeing a little lower probability after the first 30 minutes, but we can still trade through through 11
35:39
Speaker A
cuz he says he'll generally trade like the first 90 minutes after open. Still just kind of melting down.
35:46
Speaker A
We are pretty far away from our price theory. And I guess like other thing that I do want to mention too, I've simplified his strategy a lot, but like you'll see in his video like he's looking up like Trump tweets and things
35:55
Speaker A
like that to see like is there new information that validates this move? Like I don't know. Maybe something came out and the market does not like it. And you know, maybe we don't have it as like a standard red folder event or something
36:07
Speaker A
like that, but in real time maybe there was actually something that validated like okay, this is like a a reasonable move because of this new information the market didn't like.
36:15
Speaker A
So that's something that you have more access to when live trading and backtesting. I think it's something better to focus on the data that you do have consistently, which is obviously time and price and like expected news.
36:27
Speaker A
But but obviously like in a live environment with a little more discretion, I think he's able to have a little more context and draw additional like fair value levels beyond just these opening prices. He'll you'll often see in some of his videos where
36:41
Speaker A
he'll draw like kind of like what seem like almost like random consolidations where he'll like see okay, this is like where the market had now kind of agreed that the price fair value was kind of around this level.
36:52
Speaker A
So there are additional fair value levels you could trade as well, but you would probably need a little bit more insights on how exactly he does that. I think it's fine to just stick to these opens.
37:02
Speaker A
It's it works well enough it seems. Okay, maybe we're we're getting pretty close to the end of the hour. So far just no trades this day. So let's look at the analytics. Like I said, this is going to be above average. Like I will
37:12
Speaker A
show you guys the other sessions I tested. It is not this high of a win rate, but thank you for whoever suggested March of 2025 cuz yeah, this strategy crushed during the period we tested. But obviously it's only eight trades.
37:26
Speaker A
So this is like another important thing. Just as important as if you test a strategy for 10 trades and it sucks.
37:33
Speaker A
If you test a strategy for 10 trades and it's amazing, it doesn't guarantee that it's going to do well over a large sample size. You need to make sure to validate with a proper sample size. So I will show you guys some periods that
37:43
Speaker A
I've tested to give a little more context. So I tested 2020 February of this year cuz obviously he's been trading this pretty recently. So I wanted to see how it did earlier this year. So let's see if I can
37:55
Speaker A
filter on that. I think I tried to name it like February 2026 or something like that.
38:02
Speaker A
So I tested 43 trades over that period. And in the month of February I was able to get 19R.
38:08
Speaker A
Actually this is this is only like half of February. So this is very good. You know, 19R in You know, you're obviously you're trading a lot. There's quite a bit of chart time.
38:18
Speaker A
And obviously one minute charts like drive some people crazy. So you have to be have the aptitude and desire to do it. But higher frequency with a lower time frame. 58% win rate performed very very well during this period this recent period that I
38:31
Speaker A
tested. Let's jump around. What other periods I test? I tested this like pretty strict uptrend here from like April of 2025 like late April 2025 to like early May. So let's come back to the replay. Filter on that session.
38:49
Speaker A
If I grab it here, this would have been uptrend probably. Upholding market. Okay. And started out of definitely a little flatter.
39:01
Speaker A
For for a while we were having around like you know, plus or minus 5R with a little bit of drawdown. Eventually caught a little steam towards the the later half of it. And so also profitable. 56% win rate. I think it's a
39:13
Speaker A
much more reasonable compared to like 85% win rate or something like that. But that's a solid profit factor. Like 1.93 profit factor is really good.
39:20
Speaker A
And then last period I tested, I think I wanted to yeah, super super choppy market. So I tried to find like the rangiest conditions I could find. This is like April of 2023 through April yeah, basically April of 2023.
39:36
Speaker A
And I don't even know if he's tested this far back. I think he's most of his testing has been the last two years. So this would have been kind of ranging market conditions. So, I'll filter on those real quick.
39:46
Speaker A
Ranging markets. Not as good. Um, it was, you know, I I think most strategy Even with the mean reversion, you probably the mean reversions were okay here. Um, but overall, it was still a little bit worse in this condition. I
39:58
Speaker A
think most strategies are probably not going to trade well when you got barcode price action. Um, but uh to give you guys I've jumped around a few different market conditions and we have like a really good sample size for this. I want to show you guys.
40:10
Speaker A
So, now if we go to our recent session, I've created a strategy for this and all these sessions that I've traded, I'm going to link up to this specific strategy.
40:19
Speaker A
Um, so we can look at all the analytics together and get some really good insights. So, JJ Fair Value Theory.
40:24
Speaker A
If you tie your sessions to the strategy, then you can filter the strategy um itself either by going to the analytics and then filtering, you don't need the sessions anymore, but if you look for the specific strategy, you can filter it that way. Or often
40:39
Speaker A
what I'll do um is just go to the strategies page. I have to like search for it cuz I have so many of them now.
40:46
Speaker A
But you could also just click the analytics from the strategies page and get it a little quicker. Um, so overall, uh testing that we have, uh yeah, a lot of profit in two weeks, but also a lot of chart time and probably a lot of gray
40:56
Speaker A
hairs from trading one minute charts. So, if it's for you, then great, but it's definitely not for everyone. Um, but yeah, let's talk about what we have.
41:03
Speaker A
So, 158 trades. Um, you're welcome. I was curious and like I thought in specifically in his case since he is like such a new trader, um you know, even we've had other traders that I've tested, Trader Cain, um
41:17
Speaker A
Tom Trades, Scarface, who like have been like around a little bit longer and are making these claims. This guy like made his YouTube channel like two weeks ago.
41:24
Speaker A
So, I really wanted to spend some time and actually validate and help you guys like make sure you're not wasting your time. Um, so I was curious and it was it was fast enough to test. Um, but I, you
41:34
Speaker A
know, jumped down and did 158 trades for you guys, so you're welcome. Um, I still encourage you you to test this yourself obviously, but over all the period we tested, 54% win rates, 1.76 profit factor. Honestly very solid.
41:46
Speaker A
Um, we can look at the different um tags that we have and then see how they how they varied um by time frame. So, and the continuations have slightly higher win rate, which is very common.
41:56
Speaker A
Continuations generally tend to be a little higher probability over two profit factor. Max win streak of eight, max loss streak of five. Um, we had more buys than sells in the period.
42:09
Speaker A
Um, and then yeah, pretty similar results between the AM session and PM session. Probably slightly higher win rate in the PM session, it looks like, um but still profitable in in the performance session. Uh performance by day, um
42:23
Speaker A
Tuesdays, Wednesdays seems a little lower, but again, this is something that as you get, I mean, this is a pretty good sample size, but over 200 trades, you would probably going to say like definitively, okay, if I take out Tuesdays and Wednesdays, I'll
42:34
Speaker A
be able to pretty, you know, significantly improve my results. Um, and again, looking at performance by month, anywhere between um sorry.
42:42
Speaker A
Anywhere between like 2% uh sorry, 2R and 15R just trading the continuations. Um, we can also look at the risk reward simulator. I'll run that real quick before we pivot over to the mean reversions. And yeah, 1.5 is optimal um
42:56
Speaker A
for this strategy the the way we traded it. It doesn't say that any other risk reward level is going to drastically improve our results. I mean, we could get really granular if we wanted and see like, okay, what about 1.4R or what
43:07
Speaker A
about uh 1.6R? Really close and see, okay, there you go. 1.6R is slightly better. So, if you want to get a little bit more out of the edge, um you maybe you can go 1.6R instead of uh just 1.5. And then obviously, same
43:23
Speaker A
thing with other optimizations. I'm sure there were some trades where it was worth, you know, trying to trail if there's trend line liquidity or something like that. So, you could obviously play around with additional optimizations like that, too. But risk
43:33
Speaker A
reward simulator shows a little bit of insights. Maybe we can get a little bit more of the continuations by going for 1.6R instead of 1.5.
43:41
Speaker A
Um, and then now let's look at the entry trigger two. Um, cuz that's going to be the mean reversions and see what insights we can have from that. So, little lower win rate, 59 or 49% win rate. Still 15R over the period, 1.46
43:53
Speaker A
profit factor, still not quite as good, but I definitely think there's some good optimization opportunities with this.
43:58
Speaker A
Um, obviously we had a little bit of a larger loss streak with the lower win rates.
44:03
Speaker A
But um this is what I wanted to show you guys. So, from the testing that I've done, it seems like um you may not want to take mean reversions if they happen after the first 30 minutes of New York
44:15
Speaker A
open, which means basically only take mean reversions if they happen within that first 30 minutes of open. You know, you've you've taken the continuation or maybe there wasn't a continuation, but price has at least moved away um from
44:25
Speaker A
the level and you're taking kind of an earlier reversion back to the level cuz it seems like later on um they are a little lower probability. Again, I didn't personally take those like second mover versions. Um, so if you added
44:37
Speaker A
those to the mix, like um like this one for example, that's kind of the second mover version.
44:43
Speaker A
Maybe if you added more of these, it would maybe offset and improve that second hour window or whatever, but for my testing, I was mostly focused on kind of that first move.
44:54
Speaker A
So, just some context there. If you if you're testing it like I had, then you probably want to just stick to the first 30 minutes. And then same thing, it seems like the trades there's there's only eight trades, so not super
45:03
Speaker A
material, but you probably only only want to trade mean reversions the first hour of that PM window and just don't worry about trading the last um last like I guess 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. of New York session. Performance by day, maybe drop
45:16
Speaker A
Wednesdays. Um, seems like Wednesdays do not do well and maybe increase risk Fridays. Again, these are I have decent sample size here. This is 67 trades.
45:26
Speaker A
This would be better way better with like 2 300 trades. Um, but if you get large sample size, you can get some good insights to see, okay, I need to just drop Wednesdays and maybe I go I risk 2R instead of 1R um
45:36
Speaker A
for for Fridays if they're doing it in 90% win rates. Um, same thing with performance by month. A little lower on these. Definitely most of our returns came from the continuations.
45:47
Speaker A
Just looking at this these monthly performances, we got 15R here versus entry trigger one. Um, I think it was like 40R if I remember.
45:55
Speaker A
Um, I'm pretty sure it's like 40R. But I want to look at the risk reward simulator for these as well.
46:00
Speaker A
So, interesting. Um, if you are ex- if you can accept a 27% win rate, um it seems like holding the mean reversion a little better. Um, could improve your results a little bit.
46:12
Speaker A
Um, I usually don't recommend people go for a 27% win rate strategy, so I would say probably this probably gives you an idea that in certain occasions, there are reasons to like trail the stop loss.
46:25
Speaker A
Um, you know, if you have I'm trying to see if I can come up with a quick example right here. Um, like in this specific this is a is a good example. Like this trade right here kind of just melted
46:34
Speaker A
straight down. There weren't like there were there weren't highs. There wasn't trend line liquidity in the sense that um there weren't like additional levels that could propel price further very easily. Instead, you were kind of coming into these imbalances that could reject
46:45
Speaker A
down. So, like a trade like this, you probably wouldn't want to um to try and hold for longer, but let me see if I can find uh the same example. We'll go down here.
46:55
Speaker A
If you were trading a mean reversion down here, um you see here we have some kind of trend line liquidity from these kind of stacked highs along the way. So, it's maybe a little better um to to trail the stop. So, giving you guys some
47:05
Speaker A
ideas that your trailing stop loss application for optimizations doesn't have to be every trade. You could identify um specific conditions that are more con- you know, condoning on holding holding the trade longer and seeing it if you hold certain trades longer, you
47:18
Speaker A
could potentially improve results um based on this. Um, that's probably what I would try and do so that instead of just accepting 27% win rate, maybe you can get somewhere in between there, um but improve your your average risk
47:29
Speaker A
reward. Um, but I think even if we just excluded uh those um the times that we that we saw, um we'll see pretty good results. Like I in fact did that.
47:38
Speaker A
So, I took my FX Replay export, which you can do at the top here, and literally just dumped it into Excel real quick. I was looking at continuations first. And to show you guys um why I found like the first three minutes were
47:48
Speaker A
bad. So, you could filter these like by time. So, this is this is just the FX Replay export and then I added this um formula mod of the the time.
47:59
Speaker A
And then you just put a comma one. It just gives you like the time and you just format it as a time. So, you can get the specific time for the trades.
48:07
Speaker A
And then if I just literally filter on the first like three minutes, uh we made like 40R um across all these, I'm pretty sure. Where's the P&L right here? 36R.
48:16
Speaker A
Over these and then this is like the testing I did before. It doesn't include the most recent data.
48:21
Speaker A
But if we filter just the first three minutes, uh we've only made 2R um in that and there's there's like what it what is this like?
48:29
Speaker A
Uh am I I'm not seeing the count here. Let's see the count. 28 trades, you're only making 2R. Um, so it's going to be a super low win rates. Um, I don't know if I counted it, probably like 40 40%
48:38
Speaker A
win rate something like that. Um, all this to say like it it may be worth waiting like three minutes after open and not taking those first first few candle continuations cuz they do seem like they're a little lower probability
48:50
Speaker A
based on that. And then So, if we if we remove these trades and then if we take out those um kind of bad windows for our entry trigger two, which were basically the uh 10:00 to 11:00 window and the the 3:00
49:05
Speaker A
to 4:00 p.m. window. Um, so if you do a few simple optimizations just like kind of using the analytics, uh where is this? Right up here.
49:12
Speaker A
Um, which I've done here. I've kind of combined everything. We instead of having and I'll look at our I'll compare like our overall analytics without this new session. So, let me just I'll just do a little comparison for you guys.
49:25
Speaker A
So, this is all the testing I did before. Um, hunt still 150 trades, 46R, uh 52% win rate, 1.66 profit factor. And then after I removed a few of those um I removed those first three minutes. I removed the 10 and 11
49:39
Speaker A
hour versions. I removed the 3 to 4 p.m. hour versions. Now we have a 2.46 profit factor with a 62% win rate. So, very simple optimization. No new rules or whatsoever. Just literally like using the time.
49:50
Speaker A
Um, date your data um, from the analytics to optimize. So, um, I'm honestly going to say like this JJ guy might be legit. Um, I hope he doesn't come out like in a week on JJ's a fraud.
50:01
Speaker A
[laughter] Um, but we put his strategy to the test with no bias, no um, expectations. Um, made a little bit more of of mechanical rule set so you could consistently identify and execute it.
50:14
Speaker A
Um, so, you know, slightly different than maybe the video he showed. Um, being a little more specific with the combination of criteria that we had. But honestly, yeah, this is a super solid um, data set that we have so far. Definitely
50:26
Speaker A
a promising strategy that if you love 1-minute time frame NQ scalping, um, could be a strategy for you. And check it out.
50:35
Speaker A
Um, if you guys want more information about um, FX Replays uh, Discord. Um, it's also linked in all of the YouTube videos. Um, or I'll probably on the website if you scroll down to the bottom. Um, there's a Discord icon.
50:47
Speaker A
Um, so if you want to, you know, see if other people are checking uh, this strategy other strategies, feel free to hop in the Discord. Um, ask questions. I usually am answering answering questions and also other traders. Um, so you guys
50:58
Speaker A
can can hop in there. Totally free. And then obviously, um, FX Replays going to be the best way to for you guys to actually validate these strategies yourself instead of just trusting anybody, myself included, that um, that it does well. But yeah, the period we
51:10
Speaker A
tested today obviously crushed. But I'm sure there's also periods that you have 30% win rates. Um, so, um, yeah. We'll see if uh, he comes out with more content. But does seem like a promising NQ scalping strategy for those of you
51:21
Speaker A
that want to check that out. So, but with that, we'll wrap it up. Hope you guys have a great rest of your week and I'll see you later everyone. Bye.
Topics:JJ SimonNQ scalpingfair value theorymarket structure breakdisplacement candlefutures trading1-minute timeframebacktestingtrading strategymean reversion

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