Speaker A
I'm at $1,931,000 worth of prop firm payouts. Here, I'll just refresh. This is episode 13 of the series documenting the road to 2.5 million in payouts. So, I'm going to go over all the trades that I took this
JJ Simon shares his trading strategies and outcomes during a challenging week trading prop firms, highlighting risk management and trade execution.
Key Takeaways
- Successful prop firm trading requires adapting strategies to market conditions and managing multiple accounts.
- Understanding fair price and structural breaks is crucial for timing entries and exits.
- Risk management and mechanical trading rules help mitigate losses during choppy or unfavorable weeks.
- Aggressive layering of trades can increase potential payouts but also increases risk.
- Major market events like FOMC can significantly affect trading performance and require strategy adjustments.
What the video covers
- JJ Simon discusses his progress towards $2.5 million in prop firm payouts, currently at $1,931,000.
- He reviews all trades taken during a losing strategy week but still profitable due to the profit-specific environment.
- Explains his approach to trading gaps, reversions, and break of structure strategies using specific time frames like 6 p.m. and Asian session opens.
- Highlights the importance of managing multiple funded accounts and adjusting strategies based on market conditions.
- Shares detailed examples of trade entries, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, emphasizing mechanical and discretionary elements.
- Discusses challenges with choppy markets, especially on FTMO accounts with lower risk-reward ratios.
- Mentions the impact of major events like FOMC on market volatility and trading outcomes.
- Stresses the importance of fair price concepts and adjusting bias after structural breaks in price action.
- Provides insights into layering trades and managing multiple accounts aggressively but warns against replicating his approach without sufficient experience.
- Encourages viewers to follow his Instagram for daily updates on his largest prop firm accounts.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Current Payout Status
- 01:46Trading Strategy: Gap and Reversion Trades
- 03:27Aggressive Trading and Multiple Accounts Warning
- 05:09Adjusting Fair Price and Market Structure
- 06:42Continuation Trades and Risk Management
- 08:32Impact of FOMC and Market Conditions
- 12:05Trade Examples and Execution Details
- 14:40Summary of Results and Final Thoughts
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
week, how it was a losing week strategy-wise, but I still made money because of the profit-specific environment. Obviously, your eval fees versus your payouts are what really matters. So, as soon as this refreshes, I'll get into it. Uh, while this is
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loading, should be about 30K more this week. So, there's that. So E8 my funded futures more E8 funded seat 18K from the live which was nice blue sky E8. Then I also received Bulanox 1.8 Bulanox 36.
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This one I didn't record in the last video so just including it now. And then two from Topstep and then one from the trading pit which is cool. So we're at 1,931,000.
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Also for this week I have some pictures here just to show you my executions are real because people keep asking. Let's get into it. All right. So starting on Sunday, we have the huge gap above like 300 point gap and then we have opening
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candle green. So with Sunday, 6 p.m. is opening fairly and our high time frame bias is to fill the gap. Basically what that means is between 6 p.m. and Asia, I'm just looking for reversions to 6 p.m. and then after that I'm going to be
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trade for the gap to fill or if it starts trending long and then breaks structure and then just actually starts filling the gap, I'll just go with that trend. In this case, it didn't.
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Continuation longs on open are fine just because there is a gap. I would probably do a 7650 take-profit stop-loss and then after that just trade reversions. As soon as this one loses, I honestly would send something short. Just looking for
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reversions back to 6 p.m. Same as the strategy always says, reversion to six. Then you get another move away. Let's look for another reversion to six. There is a tiny little displacement here, which would be a fine entry there. Next
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displacement candle you get would be this one here, which is also break structure, which is nice. You would also be able to layer in multiple throughout this. Like you could send another one here off this displacement if you wanted
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to send another one. That's totally fine. Then I would send another one here. Huge break of a structure. This is a pretty high probability one. Just break a structure is always stronger.
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And then of course you can always add more as a break structure. This breaking this just more and more and more. When Asian opens though, Asian session opens green. So the continuation trade for Asia would be longs just cuz the opening
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candle is green. So you just take continuation 38.25 as always. Um you could exit this trade break even or you could just exit manually here and then send it the other direction. It's pretty much the same. After that, I would think
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Asian is fair because when Asian opened, boom, it went away from 6 PM. So 6 PM down here is no longer fair. Asian open is fair. Just trade a reversion. I don't even think you can enter here. There's
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not a displacement candle. Uh this is the first displacement and you're getting Oh, you're getting 30 points. So you can send it for 38. Remember, it's 30 plus. After that, as soon as it hit Asian, I sent an account long literally
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like it had to have been that candle. I sent an account long just for like 250 points just trying to fill the gap overnight. Uh which lost unfortunately.
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Nothing you can really do about that. So really good reversions in general. 6 p.m. was quite fair. Basically only a few layered losses and then obviously the funded loss. Now Monday 50/50 uh pretty much this is sort of what it
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looked like for me. I layer in quite aggressively on on trends up trends down. And then here were my specific prop firm eval outcomes. So on FTMO not the best um when it's pretty choppy. I don't really do well on these because
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they're like a one to4 ristor reward. So they kind of get cooked. um funded won $19,000 which is great and then I lost 1,500 trying to get a winning day of 270 almost at my first payout there which oh
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I guess you saw I did get the first payout later that week. Um and then I lost a funded account overnight obviously which I already told you about. Um but here are some executions you could take. Obviously don't trade
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the same as I do. Like this is quite a lot of trades and they're quite aggressive. Um if you don't have 50 accounts you should not trade the same way as I do. That is just how I did it
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and these were my results. Now, here's how you can do it or how you would do it following the most mechanical strategy possible. Opening candle is red, so you would short. That is it. 3825 as usual because the candle body is 25 points,
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less than 25 points. After that, 6 p.m. open is up here and Asian open is here as well. Um, so the higher time frame bias is towards that. Plus, there is the gap above all that above. So, there's a
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pretty strong higher time frame bias long. It's always possible it opens unfairly. So, if it was to break up towards Asian open, that is why I would take this. I usually don't trade away from like fair price or the open, but
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when it makes such a strong move like this, even here, like it's pretty confirmed as soon as it breaks structure long, um you're pretty sure it's going to go back towards 6 p.m., just assuming the move down overnight was unfair. Now,
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usually it does open fairly, but obviously not always. There's another example we'll talk about later on with FOMC and how the 6 p.m. opened unfairly there, but anyways, this is just to say that you can take reversions back to
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previous session fair price. It is a little bit discretionary. Unfortunately, I can't make it 100% mechanical exactly how to do it. Uh there's just a gap above 6 p.m. and Asian was also here and there was a really strong momentum shift
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and break of structure long failure to go short on open. So, it is fine to take breakup structure trade like this.
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That's what I did after that. I took I took two shorts. Um as soon as it wicked Asian open, I felt like a reversion of the move up was just the next likely thing to happen instead of a move
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farther up. So that's why I took shorts off this placement here and off this placement here, which unfortunately did not win. After this move up, though, I would readjust fair price to this consolidation. Definitely not looking back down to the open anymore. So just
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marked the hop in the bottom of the consolidation. There's the middle of it. Pretty easy, I hope. Um, not looking back to the open because it made this continuation up. So it broke structure and made a move up, moved away from the
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open. If the open was fair, this move up here would have been a move down. It would have came straight back down to the open, but it didn't. So I would now treat this as fair. And then there's
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just very standard break of structure trade back towards this. You could send it for a little bit more whatever your risk management says. But that was the idea on Monday specifically. And then I guess a few more tiny little reversions
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in there. I had the problem of why I performed so bad on this day is I kept shorting. You can see 1 2 3 4. Like I just kept shorting thinking the open was fair for whatever reason. Uh but
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obviously looking back at it, it's a lot easier to understand that after this move up, you would definitely want to classify this as fair. Trading to the open is obviously not the worst thing ever. It is the most likely direction
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for the next reversion, but it's at a fair price. So, it's basically forcing unnecessary trades. Um, I do find that I have to do that a lot just because I'm trading so many accounts. Like, this is just three of my props. These are like
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the biggest three that I trade, which is why I post those these three every day.
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You can also check my Instagram. I post these three every day because they're the biggest ones that I trade. Um, I also trade a bunch of smaller ones, which obviously can't fit into one picture
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2 p.m. if I finish all my accounts, but the bias is just short. um looks a little bit weird because the opening candle is green, but it's also rejecting longs. So, continuation shorts on the second candle would have been fine. Now,
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there is a contract rollover, so there wasn't actually a gap. You can kind of ignore that. Tuesday, I don't believe I was able to take any pictures, but we can just go into what the strategy looks like. It would have done most mechanical
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analysis possible. Continuation short. Why is it so large? continuation short on open or a 2538 and then most likely get out break even right here just because the initial unfair move doesn't seem to happen. So we get out break even
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and now assume 6 p.m. is fair. Asian open, you get a weird little green candle. You could probably buy at the top. It breaks structure. So it seems fine to buy back towards that.
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Unfortunately, barely get stopped out. And then I would re-enter just because Asian open was green and 6 p.m. is above. You just get a nice displacement instantly after losing with exactly 40 points back in your favor there. That'd
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be great. If you ever need smaller trades, the trend is really confirmed on its way back up here. So you can enter here, here, here, or here. if you ever need smaller trades as well just with the trend in the reversion after it goes
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back I would think looking for reversions possibly towards Asian uh but it's way too close for me to take anything there's basically no volume and then it comes back consolidates a lot exactly at the Asian open which is
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always good to confirm um that what we're looking for actually does occur then the morning of Tuesday it was not a very good day just not a lot of trades honestly like barely any trade opportunities so on the open you get a
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continuation short on the second candle opening candles it technically breaks this but wick this. It's a really weak one. I would definitely take it on the second candle instead. After that, looking for reversions to the open, which obviously we don't get any because
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it's too close to the open. So, need to move away. Now, in here, there's no entry signals. Now, you can probably tell that yourself. It has to displace this candle because it has to be a green displacing a red in just the way that I
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trade it. None of these are displacing this one because none of them closing above the wick. Like, there is no displacement in here. So, do not take a trade here. Then, you can take one here.
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Great displacement. Um, if you don't want to enter there, you could also enter off this one with a break of structure. It's pretty much the same thing. So, one entry losing out of these two candles is fine. This one I would
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not enter because it's not displacing that. Then you would need to wait even more for another move down. And if I zoom in really close, this is not displacing this because none of it's closing above. Neither's this. Neither
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is this. And you have this. This is the only option. I sent one on this, but I if I were you, I would not send one on this. This is a very unbiased candle.
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There's a huge wick rejecting longs and it barely even displaces the previous this like these three combined technically are displacing this uh or these two combined are technically breaking this structure but it's so weak that I wouldn't you shouldn't trade it
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but I trade it. Then it's been an hour into the session and literally there's only been three trade opportunities which is why I didn't post cuz I barely traded anything. Then there would be more opportunities off the next
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displacement which is this candle because it's body size is larger than the previous one and it closed above the wick. So it is a displacement and then that would be the first entry. This candle right here is breaking this
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structure because this wick is taller than the two next to it. This one breaks above that and then closes above. So there's a break of structure and I'm doing 2538 just for all examples. It changes based on the proper as you most
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likely saw. Then you could send another one off this displacement here. I probably wouldn't though cuz it's the exact same level as the first entry. So I would most likely do this one or this one when it's actually breaking
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structure and then unfortunately lose that one. So that's kind of what Tuesday looked like. Actually, there was definitely one more. I definitely sent this one cuz I remember losing one instantly. Definitely sent that. That was kind of what Tuesday looked like.
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After 11, you want to wait for the trend. So when it's chopping here, don't enter unless it starts actually trending long. So that's what Tuesday looked like. Barely any trades. Like seven trades and I have 50 accounts or so that
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I'm trying to trade. So basically nothing surprisingly, which was weird. So it happens every once in a while though. 6 p.m. in Asia. This one literally did not move more than 20 points away from anything. I'm just going to blame it on FOMC occurring
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later in the week at this point. I'm going to blame it on FOMC occurring later in the week. Uh as to why there were barely any movements. Like it's not even 20 points away at all. So there was
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like zero trades in that session. Blame it on FOMC. Now let's get to FOMC where things actually get fun, interesting, all that sort of stuff. Here was my AM session. Mostly losing as it was most of this week. Um but still got more in pays
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than I spent on evals, which is the entire goal really. and then growing my SIM funded capital now mostly losing just because of chart the bias technically the same as always here if I zoom in really close here's the FTMO
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again so really choppy day you can see here it did revert nicely a few times but it's it's too choppy to where my one to four trades that need like huge extensions are not really hitting very well and then like barely any trades
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honestly this is the trading pit one but barely any trades so let's go into what you could have taken so 8:30 a.m. there was news. Put this at the top of the pre-news candle. Continuation of news is fine. I usually only do I don't really
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do continuation of news anymore actually, unless it's a huge candle. So, I didn't take that. Uh, looks good though. I did not revert it. Should have though. I should have tried at least once or twice. Something like this for
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the first attempt and then you lose and then second attempt off this breaking this structure would be great. So, I should have but I was not trading for whatever reason. Then on the open huge green candle continuation longs are
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perfect back towards pre-news price and the opening candle is 29 points. So you need to do a 7650 which would eventually win. The interesting thing with this one is I got outbreak even just because it wasn't making that initial unfair move
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as expected. So I exited this one. Do what you want with that information. Um after that I thought the open was fair to be honest. I was thinking pre-news could be fair if these two candles were green instead. It would have just gone
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straight back to pre-news if pre-news was fair. That was my opinion on it. So when it started consolidating at the open and then making this low here, I was pretty sure with the volume to make this low, it could have gone back to
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pre-news price. So it would have gone up if pre-news was fair. So I thought the open was fair, which is why I took this pretty quick trade on one of my EVAs and then it of course lost pretty quickly.
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It went back to pre-news at this point. Now I'm like, okay, now I know pre-news is fair. It did make that volume spike move up towards pre-news and then even move farther above. If it consolidated like right here like it did and then
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possibly displace short, I'd still short. But since it displaces long now, we're very very confident in pre-news being fair. So looking for reversions to this red line, which is the open of the 8:30 a.m. news event, obviously displacement here. First entry seems
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fine. Breakup structure here. It's a little bit too close. Displacement here. Very close. Displacement here. This is just displacements. Like this is not me picking and choosing anything. And it's literally like yes or no. Did it displace? Is the candle larger? Yes. Did
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it close below the wick? Yes. Yes. And then yes. Like it's the only three times that happened. I'm not picking choosing anything breaker structure here and then your risk management obviously depends on your account specifically like I'm not going to put it above the previous
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high or put it above the candle entry or put it anywhere like that. I'm just doing exactly 12.5 points or whatever whatever my account needs based on the takerit. So send that one in there and then likely one more attempt here next
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displacement. So pretty weird day obviously cuz FOMC there was like what one two three four five six seven trades. when I'm trying to get through 50 accounts. Like I can copy trade for sure but just not a lot of action. Now
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FOMC things finally get very very interesting. The open was like there were actually no funded account trades for me just cuz my funded accounts are usually going for more than 30 points just cuz I like to risk risk heavy. Now
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not to spoil anything but I guess I will. Pretty good reversion. So here's FOMC. Um I took continuation and I took reversion here, reversion here which lost huge reversion there and lost funded there. Now, I made $20,000 on
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this reversion, which was great because I lost maybe like 2K in the morning at worst. Here, I'll zoom in and show you some proof. There's a 7K win on a funded account. There is a 3.7K win on a funded
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account. The evals I go for $2570. So, you can sort of tell when it's an EVA.
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And then on this live account down here with funded next, I made $10,577. So, let's get into analysis. Here is the pre FOMC price. All right. 2 p.m. FOMC comes out. The wick rejects long and it closes short as displacement. So yes,
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that is a continuation trade. The candle is 20 points and since it's less than 25, we would do a 2538. If you're taking continuation, which wins pretty quickly, then reversion was possible. However, it is very hard to get into this reversion.
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You would have to do it on sort of like the 5 or 15-second chart. for news reversions and the opening reversions.
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The way I like to think about it is when the market's going to open, there's going to be an initial unfair move which creates a continuation. As soon as the unfair move stops, then I'm looking for a reversion. Now, it is kind of hard to
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look for that on the 1 minute chart. Like, you can't really tell that the unfair move down stopped until it's printed this huge green candle and it's already back. But on a lower time frame, like 5 or 15 seconds, you you could
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catch the bottom of these continuation moves with some efficiency. up to you though. After that, I look for reversion. Uh this is an example of where you I personally had to enter before displacement. Uh this is my evals
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most likely my EA valves from the picture where I need 26 I need 26 points. So it just looks something like that. Technically it's not displacement. Uh there's a huge wick rejecting breaking structure long. And also the bias on these pre-news
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reversions are very strong. So I could consider something like that. U but obviously not according to the strategy.
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So, you shouldn't do that. What you should do is most likely buying this one. These two are displacing this red one, but it isn't very close. I need at least 30 points to do the 25 38. Uh, so
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if you have have an account that needs 24, this is a really strong trade to take. Then another move away. Definitely going to revert that. These two, one, two, work together to revert this because they're larger than the body and
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it closes above the wick. So, huge trade for 114 points in your favor. I sent two fundeds. this one for 7K and then this one for 10,000. I believe it was four contracts on this one and then three
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contracts on this one. Uh the entries were honestly it was one entry per candle. Um and a few midcand. So fund is I'm usually doing per candle since I like to wait for the close of a candle.
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Evals I'm doing mid candle just based on the bias. It doesn't really matter with the entry specifically on an eval especially in a reversion. So I send one funded here and then I send the second funded. This candle might have been the
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third or midway through, but I guess you get the idea. And then evals are literally just like one after the other.
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After the first one is halfway to take profit, boom, there goes the next one.
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So, I got through 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eight evals and three fundeds in just one move. Uh, which was pretty pretty insane. I took this one as well on one more account. This is just the next
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displacement that we get. Boom. Displacing this one. So, I sent this one on another account and this one ended up losing instantly, which is fine. Um, this is not a displacement cuz it didn't close above the wick. So, no need to
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take that. The only time I will be aggressive is when it is so close to fair price that you have to be aggressive like this. It's technically not a displacement. Obviously, it didn't close below the wick. If I wait for it
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to close below the wick, then shoot, I only have 15 points in my favor. If I enter here though, I'm getting 22 and I have a 26 point trade. So, in my opinion, it's a little bit better to do
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that. But these here, this one's not displacement because it didn't close above the wick. But it looks like a really nice huge green candle. But there's no need to enter here unless you literally need 190 points. Even if you
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need 180 points, just wait 10 more points for the next candle to form and then it'd be way more confirmed. So that's why I wouldn't get in on this one. But I would definitely get in on this one and lose, unfortunately. And
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then I was done. All my accounts were done. But if you wanted another reversion, well, what's the next displacement candle you get? Obviously not these two. Obviously not this, not this, and not this. This one. There you go. If you don't want to buy with the
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very first green candle you see, definitely that's fine. I wouldn't either. I would wait for this. Just wait for breakup structure, right? Like at the lowest fair price could be here. The most recent consolidation like at the lowest it's here. But like realistically
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it's the pref um all these moves from news are extremely unfair. So you can revert them. So definitely literally just send something like that like A+ trade and then send more here, more here, more here, here. So pre-news are
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the strongest reversions in general. That's how I won 20K. Now, here is what I was talking about where opens aren't always fair. This red line up here is going to be the pre FOMC price. I'm assuming this move down is unfair. And
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as you can see, it's starting to work its way back up. So, ignore everything to the right of 6 p.m. It's starting to work its way back up. Now, at 6 p.m., I usually say 6 p.m. opens fairly, which
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is a true statement probably 98% of the time, but obviously it can't open fairly or else we'd have an infinite money glitch just reverting to 6 p.m., right?
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So, what we assume is that 6 p.m. can open unfairly just because with these weekday 6 p.m. there's not enough volume for it to open high enough. What I mean by that is if FOMC PF FOMC was fair,
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there's not enough volume transacted between 5 and 6 for that hour when the market's in its downtime for it to open 207 points higher than where it is.
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There's not enough volume for that to happen. So, I would just be assuming 6 p.m. is going to open unfairly. Worst case though, worst case, this is a fair price. Worst case, lowest case, looking at all these numbers here on the right,
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what's the lowest possible fair value? I would say 6 p.m. like there's no chance fair value is down here in my opinion.
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Even if it is here, where is it likely to go next? Where's the next most likely fair value? Well, the long direction because the reversion would be reverting these shorts. So, even if it was fair, I would still assume the most likely next
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fair price would be in the long direction. So, I did take one of these trades on a funded and win like 8,000.
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I'll show you proof in a second, but you could also just basically assume for sake of discussion that 6 p.m. opened unfairly because there's not enough volume between five and six and it's still working its way back up towards
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the PF FOMC price. So, it is fine, definitely fine to take huge trade like that and also to not revert to six. It is a little bit discretionary.
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Unfortunately, there is no mechanical way for me to line that up for you, but hopefully that makes sense. If not, then you might have to join my program. Now, 8 p.m., same thing. Asian open, continuation long seems fine. You are
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buying at the absolute top of the past 6 hours, but it's still fine for just a continuation trade. After that, loses.
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The initial move from Asia is a little bit weird cuz it just started consolidating. So, I would likely drag this down a little bit and then just assume, okay, it's fair here instead of PFOMC, which we get lots of
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consolidation throughout the night, confirming that, which is great. Now, going into Friday, let's look at some results because the results were absolutely crazy. And then I'll talk about the trades that I took. All right, so let's look at this one first. Two
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huge trades on live accounts. Uh first one, oh, I can draw on them. 14.2K win on the live account. I withdrew the other entire one that I won. I won 10K on it with the FOMC. I just withdrew all
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of it that night. These are funded next live accounts, by the way. Um, so sent this thing for 8K during the FOMC event, which well, not during the event, like after like the 6 p.m. thing I was just
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talking about. Sent it for 8K there and then I sent it for like 6K here on this move down. Uh, I'll get into why in a second. And then after that, here's the open, which we'll get into in a second.
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And then just sort of standard reversion for another $10,000. And of course, I'm not only trading those live accounts.
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Like I have infinite SIM funded accounts basically, which I layer very aggressively. Uh, so if I zoom in even more, you can see my FTMO. Pretty good results on the FTMO. Um, you'll see why in a second, but pretty good results on
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the FTMO in general. Same risk management as always. Uh, trading pit. This one's the funded. The rest are just eval doing random random stuff. E8.
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These are eval. This one is a funded, but these ones are eval. Now, let's get into the trades, why you do them, all that sort of stuff. So, this red line here is going to be FC/Aian consolidation. coming into the open,
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there's this huge move up, which I thought was possibly unfair. So, I just shorted like right here off this break of this structure and I sent it all the way back. Now, the reason why I did this pre-open is first I honestly thought
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there was enough volume to make my reversion finish before the open. Like I thought it was just going to do like just come down here before the open and then open down here and then just deal with it from there. However, so it's
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fine to take a trade like that um pre-open, but you would also need to manage your trade based on the open. So just essentially obviously a market open is not 50/50 but for sake of discussion we'll assume it's nearing 50/50 like not
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exactly but if we assume that I'm at break even and maybe I'm risking I don't even remember how much I was risking maybe I'm risking 3k to win 6k.
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Obviously it's not a 50/50 that I win this one right because that'd be infinite money glitch. I would have a 50% chance at winning this which would be 3k. I'd have a 50/50 chance at losing 3k which would be minus 1.5k. So, it'd
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be an infinite money glitch, which is technically impossible. Like, it's not going to happen in that direction. Um, but if the break break even rate on a 3 to six trade is 33%.
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Then I would assume it gets slightly pushed towards 50/50. So, maybe I have a 34% edge or 35% chance of winning this specific trade on the open given that it's a SIM environment. So, I will hold trades through the open if I am decently
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confident in the direction of the open. You can also literally just check the imbalance on the open to see which direction it's going to open for yourself. U so I do hold trades through the open sometimes. Now on its move
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down, I'm also sending those EVAs in some funded accounts. Huge second candle. First candle read barely. I guess there isn't even a bias to the opening candle. It failed to go both ways just because there's a lot of
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overnight long orders. So it opened up originally and then it ended up closing down which is why I was more confident to short on consecutive accounts. I most likely send stuff in the candle, but you could wait for the candle to close, too.
Speaker A
It's the same thing. That works as well. Opening candle body is oh, half a point.
Speaker A
So, I guess technically you do 2538. Send one here. Send one here. Send one here. Send one here. Send one here. So, just keep shorting until the original unfair move is done. After the unfair move is done, look for reversion. I
Speaker A
personally sent it on. It was this one or this one. I can't remember. They look the exact same, but I sent that huge funded back towards the open. It was probably this one just cuz I needed a few more points. Uh but I sent a huge
Speaker A
funded live account technically live account with eight contracts. I think it was eight eight or four or five contracts back to the open uh just very confident in reversion obviously. So then layering accounts as always the first displacement long that you get
Speaker A
would be these two displacing this being larger than the body and closing above the wick. So first entry would be here and then maybe we can just assume you do 25 38 on all your evals funded accounts whatever. First one obviously here.
Speaker A
Second displacement is literally just this candle here. If I zoom in more third displacement would be this candle here. The these are very mechanical decisions like yes it displaced. No it did not. This one here this one broke
Speaker A
structure. This one displaced. These two broke structure of that red one. Then this one broke structure. This one broke structure. I guess it's too close to the open to take that one. But very winning day in general for Friday. So wait no
Speaker A
that's Thursday. Hold on. Video is not done. Friday bad day. No reversion at all. So I had a horrible day. You can see the trades here. Every time I was buying it was not going up. um 15% of
Speaker A
days don't revert. So, it's just going to be like that sometimes. There's nothing you can do about it. Here are the results though. So, trying to limit losses, like I said in this picture, limiting the worst possible days to
Speaker A
minus 10K when the winning days like yesterday and the FOMC day 20K plus. Very important. Plus, there's even more asymmetry on top of that. So, it's not just like your account dollars loss versus dollars won. It's also your bank
Speaker A
account spend on evals versus payouts. Uh so, I lost those two remaining funded next live accounts, unfortunate. And then I lost all of my E8. Two of these were fundeds and then the rest were eval because you can only have three funded.
Speaker A
So it's not like I lost all fundeds. I only lost two because I withdrew from the other one that won the other day and then five evals. Now think about it from a lens of expected value. Each live
Speaker A
account, even though they did lose 4.5K on each. So it was like a 9K loss on the screen. It's technically 6K in expected value because based on my win rate risk-to-reward and previous testing that I've done under this given rule set, I
Speaker A
am expecting exactly 3K in expected value, which is basically like my percentage chance of getting the payout that I'm assuming I'm going to get like a 50% chance of a 6k payout and then the account is gone is 3K in EV. So that's
Speaker A
just the assumption that I'm making for these accounts. So I lose 6K in EV.
Speaker A
Nothing you can do about it. E8 minus 1K because I just say that's how much those accounts cost. Usually I'll pass like one out of four evals, one out of three evals on E8 specifically because they have 40% consistency. So it takes
Speaker A
forever to pass those and so I lose 1K 1K because that's how much the funds cost. Then I lose 230 * 5 worth of evals. FTMO didn't even get the chance to trade the rest. Honestly just stopped. I'll show you in a second where
Speaker A
I stopped but stopped. Um thankfully there was a win. There was one win in this day which thankfully was on a funded account. So I got pretty lucky about that. So I won 2K on the funded and then lost one/ird of 10 EV vals
Speaker A
basically. So bad day in general, but important that you're staying net positive in terms of your EV. Now here's the trades that I made. Open very unbiased. I just took continuations right after. Same thing as yesterday. Uh but seemed fine to take that. And then
Speaker A
one more here off break of structure. Another fine continuation but much weaker. Looking back, don't take that because the original unfair move never happened. So there's like there's no reason you should ever take that. I would take it because I have a ton of
Speaker A
accounts to take. Uh so I do have to take a lot of trades. Now we're going to assume the open is fair after this move down. First reversion displacement here.
Speaker A
Send it back in for the open. Send it back in for 3825. Whatever you need.
Speaker A
There's the first one. And then you get a second one like right after displacement break of structure. Then you get another one displacement break structure. This is where my winning funded was losing funded losing. I think I lost live on one of these two and I
Speaker A
lost another live trying to continue. Uh don't do that. But anyways, this is likely my winning funded or it could have been this one. One of those two is my winning funded. But it doesn't matter. Layer in. Send another one there
Speaker A
for sure. Then don't layer in draw down. So like don't take this. You could take that one cuz the first one loses. But no, the second one loses but the first one is still in profit technically. So you could take that break of structure.
Speaker A
Then take this one. Then take this one break of structure. And then this one break of structure. It's kind of an L day. And then possibly this one. I can't remember if I did or not, but it's fine
Speaker A
to take that one, too. Now, after 11, I'm done trading cuz I only want to go with the trend. And then as soon as it came back to this stuff here and just started consolidating here, if you zoom
Speaker A
back out, yesterday's open was right here. Yesterday's 6 p.m. was right here. Keep going. And that is right here. So, yesterday 9:30 and 6 was here. So, I got so confused on this day. I was getting really confident that this was fair
Speaker A
price after all of my trades failed. Obviously, you can't know that here, which is why longing is really good, but I was so confident this was possibly not possibly. I was so confident that this was a fair price just based on what I
Speaker A
had seen from yesterday 6 and yesterday 9:30 also being at this exact value that when it made this huge candle I was like all right I'm done buying I like I wasn't buying here but I was like there's no way I'm looking back to the
Speaker A
open now it has to be fair here since it broke structure down and then of course it only went up literally from that exact minute on it only went up um forever so you can't always be right about the market that's just how things
Speaker A
are but most important thing I wanted to get take ways from this video and such is check your expected value on the profit environment. So just your payout times chance of a payout. You could even you could find it for yourself. Like if
Speaker A
you have 50 funded accounts and you get 50k in payouts, you know my expected value per funded account is $1,000. So you know your values. Don't ask me for them. You know it yourself. You could test it for yourself. Um so you can get
Speaker A
those values yourself and then you can know exactly how much your accounts are worth. And then throughout the day you can look at like how much EV am I losing. So, if I lose a new funded account, I had a 1k chance of a payout.
Speaker A
Like I had an expected value of $1,000, meaning like my average payout per funded is 1K. So, if I lose a new funded, well, I basically just lost $1,000 in EV instead of the actual $3,000 or $2,000 that it says on the sim
Speaker A
environment. So, you only lose 1K. Um, so try and look at it that way. And then look through your weeks and such um as more of payouts. That's really what I'm looking at. So, I'm mostly comparing payout to eval spend. And then inside of
Speaker A
that, I'm comparing expected value. I rarely ever I don't think I ever compare like dollars won versus dollars lost.
Speaker A
That is something you shouldn't really do on a prop. It doesn't really matter. There is some correlation between how much you win and how much you lose in terms of dollars on the sim accounts compared to like your payouts and such.
Speaker A
But it's more important to understand first like the actual payout versus eval fee ratio that you're getting and then also your actual expected value generation in the funded accounts if it's positive, if it's negative. So, in general, strategy had a pretty losing
Speaker A
week since it didn't revert on a few days, but huge wins on FOMC made up for it. Huge wins on Thursday made up for it. Um, and just expected value tracking in general. So, hopefully the video explains a little bit more about all
Speaker A
that stuff. Hope you enjoyed. If you'd like to learn directly from me, then that is the top link in the description.
Speaker A
You can apply, book a call, speak with my team, and then uh if we think we could help you, I'd love to have you on.
Speaker A
If not, I'll see you in the next
Topics:prop firm tradingJJ Simontrading strategyfunded accountsrisk managementgap tradingbreak of structuremarket volatilityFOMC impacttrading payouts
