JJ Simon argues trading psychology is overrated and that math and a solid trading plan are the real keys to consistent trading success.
Key Takeaways
- Trading psychology is often a cover for lacking a tested trading edge.
- Math and a solid, repeatable trading plan are more important than controlling emotions.
- Confidence comes from knowing your edge works over time, which improves trading mindset.
- Strict adherence to a well-defined plan prevents psychological deviations.
- Tracking psychology before trades shows little impact on win rates, debunking common beliefs.
What the video covers
- JJ Simon claims trading psychology is often used as a scapegoat for lack of a proper trading edge.
- He emphasizes that losses are usually due to poor math and strategy, not emotional problems.
- Confidence in a tested trading edge builds good trading psychology, not the other way around.
- Many traders blame emotions like anger or FOMO, but these are symptoms of lacking confidence in the system.
- Proper risk sizing and a strict, step-by-step trading plan can eliminate most psychological issues.
- Deviating from a trading plan is often due to not having a clear, mathematical understanding of the consequences.
- JJ challenges viewers to track their psychology before entering trades to see that win rates remain consistent regardless.
- Random or tilted trades tend to break even but increase risk, which can be managed with good account management.
- He is skeptical of the trading psychology industry, calling it mostly 'cope' and not the core problem.
- Ultimately, he credits his trading success to focusing on math and consistency rather than emotions.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Claim: Trading Psychology is Fake
- 00:48The Real Problem: Lack of a Tested Trading Edge
- 01:43Why Blaming Psychology is Misleading
- 02:48Importance of a Step-by-Step Trading Plan
- 03:49Testing Psychology Impact on Win Rates
- 04:51Math and Consistency Over Psychology
- 05:55Managing Risk and Account Size to Control Psychology
- 06:47Summary and Final Thoughts on Trading Psychology
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Trading psychology is fake, and I know how that sounds. You probably just clicked on this video, wondering, what is this guy telling me? But I made a million and a half dollars ignoring trading psychology. Now, here's what I actually mean. Every time a guru tells you, or you tell yourself, "I need to control my emotions. I lost that trade because of these feelings," it's just cope. Everything that you're telling yourself at the end of a failed trade is maybe I tilted, I got angry, I was revenge trading, anything like that. It's not actually an emotional problem.
Speaker A
You just blame it on emotions because you didn't get the result that you were looking for. It's actually a math problem. You didn't really have the math set up for your specific trade, and that's what really caused you to lose the trade. So, let me show you why your mindset is probably not the thing keeping you broke; it's actually the math behind trading. People telling you to fix your trading psychology is pretty much a cover for you not having an edge, and same with you telling yourself that. Like, if you don't have an edge that you're able to replicate over time, then the psychology is not really going to do anything good for you, and it's not going to do anything bad for you. You're just not consistent in the long run in terms of a trading edge with a strategy that's going to work over time. So, I don't want you to focus all of your attention on, "I need to fix my trading psychology. I need to get better at this." Because it's not your most—it's not your worst problem. Um, I know how that sounds. You're probably thinking, "I know trading psychology is my worst problem. I know I get so emotional when I trade." But the emotion behind your trading is lack of confidence. Confidence is really what builds up trading psychology. Confidence just means that you know your edge is going to work out over time. So, any bad trades, even if you do take them—you don't take bad trades, but any bad trades, any negative trades where you get angry at yourself, angry at the charts, you feel greed, FOMO, whatever, you know in the long run I'm going to make money trading, so it's not really a problem anymore. So, the main problem is most people blame their emotions when it's actually the system that has problems. There's lots of people who can backtest, they can do a month, they see positive returns over a month, and then they instantly want to go on to a prop firm or a live account with that capital. It's not always going to work because sometimes strategies have good periods and bad periods, and then you're going to blame your psychology just because it didn't work for a few weeks. That's not really going to get at the root of the problem, which is that you don't have a tested edge over time that's going to replicate in the real markets. Now, most traditional psychology problems are pretty much sizing problems in terms of trading. So, using too many contracts, too few contracts. Uh, you see a really good setup and you think, "Oh my god, I'm going to win this. I need to put lots of size on it because it's a really good setup." Then you over-risk and blow your account. Or, "I'm not too confident about this one. I'll just use one contract, maybe get a little bit of money." That's also not good. You need to have a standardized system. Sometimes you exit trades early, going to profit. "Oh, I'm up 400. I need that. Exit." Sometimes you're in drawdown. "Oh, I'm down 1,000. I can't lose another 1,000. Exit." And that's the sort of psychology that you can fix by having a step-by-step trading plan. And as long as you never deviate from your trading plan, then you'll never have psychology issues. Now, I know you're probably thinking, "Well, of course my psychology is what causes me to deviate from my plan." It's kind of arguable, but in reality, if your psychology can make you deviate from your trading plan, then you never really had a trading plan. You had sort of a trading suggestion that "Oh, I think I'm going to risk this much. I think I'm going to set my take profit here." In the long run, that's not going to work. You need it to be extremely step-by-step so that you know, if I ever deviate, I know the math behind deviating. I know how mathematically and statistically bad it is to deviate from my trading plan and therefore, you're not going to do it. I mean, it does—it sounds pretty easy when I say it, honestly, but as long as you go step-by-step doing the exact same thing every single day, you're eventually going to build such insane consistency where it's literally going to pain you to deviate from it. Like when I personally get tilted or angry, I'm still going to follow the exact same trading plan. I'm just going to be more mad if I don't win. And I know that there's a little bit of psychology in terms of deviating from that plan, but in general, what most people are telling you online is completely fake. Um, I know if you were to write down every single time you feel like you deviated from your psychology or psychology messed up, you note down these trades were bad psychology, these trades were good psychology, and then you think you're going to have a better win rate on the good ones. Well, I challenge you actually. Try that for a week or two. You'll see pretty much the exact same win rate across all of your trades if the instant you place your trade, you go right down: good psych, bad psych, no, medium, whatever. You're going to have the exact same win rates at the end of two weeks. Some people are going to have a better win rate on the worst ones, on the bad psychology trades. Some people are going to have better win rates on the good psychology trades. But on average, I promise you it is going to be in the middle as long as you note the psychology as soon as you enter your position. Now, on the other hand, if you're noting it down after you take your position, then I guarantee you you're going to write down bad psychology on most of your losses and then most of your wins, no matter what you were feeling like, you're going to write down good psychology. So, I challenge you for the next week or two, write it down before you enter or write as you enter. And then you can also grade the setup, that sort of thing. You have a pretty big grid on setup and psychology. But worst case, your trades are going to be break even. If you're tilting and you're placing completely random trades, that is literally break even. You're obviously going to have higher risk, higher reward conversely, but it's still that same break even expected value from a tilted trade. So, then again, you're not really getting into such psychological debt by placing incredibly bad trades because of bad psychology. Um, you're still at least break even if it's completely random. I feel like the results that I've been able to achieve personally through trading have been pretty much through the math set of mathematics is the only important thing going forward. And psychology is not something that you need to concern yourself with. Um, I'm honestly surprised people can run entire businesses based on teaching trading psychology since I feel like it is a very simple issue. At worst case, your random trades, your rageful tilting trades are completely break even. The only thing bad about tilting and psychology problems is the increased risk. And it should be pretty easy to dial that in in terms of account management. Um, for example, if I have a funded account that's $10,000 in profit and I'm going to get a $5,000 payout once I secure some winning days.
Speaker A
Versus if I have a new funded account that cost me four evals to pass. This one's worth $1,000 because I bought four evals for $250 each and that's a full account, right? A full 150K account with 4,500 drawdown. I spent $1,000 to get it. If I ever go on tilt, then if I ever go on tilt, I will take that entire account and I will full port the entire th...
Speaker A
You just blame it on emotions because you didn't get the result that you were looking for. It's actually a math problem. You didn't really have the math set up for your specific trade, and that's what really caused you to lose
Speaker A
the trade. So, let me show you why your mindset is probably not the thing keeping you broke, it's actually the math behind trading. People telling you to fix your trading psychology is pretty much a cover for you not having an edge,
Speaker A
and same with you telling yourself that. Like, if you don't have an edge that you're able to replicate over time, then the psychology is not really going to do anything good for you, and and it's not going to do anything bad for you. You're
Speaker A
just not consistent in the long run in terms of a trading edge with a strategy that's going to work over time. So, I don't want you to focus all of your attention on, "I need to fix my trading
Speaker A
psychology. I need to get better at this." Because it's not your most It's not your It's not your worst problem. Um I know how that sounds. You You're probably thinking, "I know trading psychology is my worst problem. I know I
Speaker A
get so emotional when I trade." But, the emotion behind your trading is lack of confidence. Confidence is really what builds up trading psychology. Confidence just means that you know your edge is going to work out over time. So, any bad
Speaker A
trades, even if you do take them You don't take bad trades, but any bad trades, any negative trades where you get angry at yourself, angry at the charts, you feel greed, FOMO, whatever, you know in the long run I'm going to
Speaker A
make money trading, so it's not really a problem anymore. So, the main problem is most people blame their emotions when it's actually the system that has problems. There's lots of people can back test, they can do a month, they see
Speaker A
positive returns over a month, and then they instantly want to go on to a prop firm or a live account with that capital. It's not always going to work cuz sometimes strategies have good periods and bad periods, and then you're
Speaker A
going to blame your psychology just because it didn't work for a few weeks. That's not really going to get at the root of the problem, which is that you don't have a tested edge over time that's going to replicate in the real
Speaker A
markets. Now, most traditional psychology problems are pretty much sizing problems in terms of trading. So, using too many contracts, too little contracts. Uh you see a really good setup and you think, "Oh my god, I'm going to win this. I need to put lots of
Speaker A
size on it cuz it's a really good setup." Then you over risk and blow your account. Or "I'm not too confident about this one. I'll just use one contract maybe get a little bit of money." That's That's also not good. You need to have a
Speaker A
standardized system. Sometimes you exit trades early, going to profit. "Oh, I'm up 400. I need that. Exit." Sometimes you're in drawdown. "Oh I'm down 1,000. I can't lose another 1,000.
Speaker A
Exit." And that's the sort of psychology that you can fix by having a step-by-step trading plan. And as long as you never deviate from your trading plan, then you'll never have psychology issues. Now, I know you're probably thinking, "Well, of course my psychology
Speaker A
is what causes me to deviate from my plan." It's kind of arguable, but in reality, if your psychology can make you deviate from your trading plan, then you never really had a trading plan. You had sort of a trading suggestion that "Oh, I
Speaker A
think I'm going to risk this much. I think I'm going to set my take profit here." In the long run, that's not going to work. You need it to be extremely step-by-step so that you know, if I ever
Speaker A
deviate, I know the math behind deviating. I know how mathematically and statistically bad it is to deviate from my trading plan and therefore, you're not going to do it. I mean, it does It sounds pretty easy when I say it,
Speaker A
honestly, but as long as you go step-by-step doing the exact same thing every single day, you're eventually going to build such insane consistency where it's literally going to pain you to deviate from it. Like when I personally get tilted or angry, I'm
Speaker A
still going to follow the exact same trading plan. I'm just going to be more mad if I don't win. And I know that there's a little bit of psychology in terms of deviating from that plan, but in general, what most people are telling
Speaker A
you online is completely fake. Um I know if you were to to write down every single time you feel like you deviated from your your psychology or psychology messed up, you note down these trades were bad psychology, these
Speaker A
trades were good psychology, and then you think you're going to have a better win rate on the good ones. Well, I challenge you actually. Try that for a week or two. You'll see pretty much the exact same win rate across all of your
Speaker A
trades if the instant you place your trade, you go right down. Good psych, bad psych, no, medium, whatever. You're going to have the exact same win rates at the end of 2 weeks. Some people are going to have a better win rate on the
Speaker A
worst ones, on the bad psychology trades. Some people are going to have better win rates on the good psychology trades. But, on average, I promise you it is going to be in the middle as long as you note the psychology as soon as
Speaker A
you enter your position. Now, on the other hand, if you're noting it down after you take your position, then I guarantee you you're going to write down bad psychology on most of your losses and then most of your wins, no matter
Speaker A
what you were feeling like, you're going to write down good psychology. So, I challenge you for the next week or two, write it down before you enter or write as you enter. And then you can also grade the setup, that sort of thing. You
Speaker A
have a a pretty big grid on setup and psychology. But, worst case, your trades are going to be break even. If you're tilting and you're placing completely random trades, that is literally break even. You're obviously going to have
Speaker A
higher risk, higher reward conversely, but it's still that same break even expected value from a tilted trade. So, then again, you're not really getting into such psychological debt by placing incredibly bad trades because of bad psychology. Um you're still at least
Speaker A
break even if it's completely random. I feel like the results that I've been able to achieve personally through trading have been pretty much through the math set of of mathematics is the only important thing going forward. And psychology is not something that you
Speaker A
need to concern yourself with. Um I'm honestly surprised people can run entire businesses based on teaching trading psychology since I feel like uh it is a very simple issue. At worst case, your random trades, your your rage rageful
Speaker A
tilting trades are completely break even. The only thing bad about tilting and and psychology problems is the increased risk. And it's it should be pretty easy to dial that in in terms of account management. Um for example, if I
Speaker A
have a funded account that's $10,000 in profit and I'm going to get a $5,000 payout once I secure some winning days.
Speaker A
Versus if I have a new funded account that cost me four evals to pass. This one's worth $1,000 because I bought four evals for $250 each and that's a full account, right? A full 150K account with 4,500 drawdown. I spent $1,000 to get
Speaker A
it. If I ever go on tilt, then if I ever go on tilt, I will take that entire account and I will full port the entire thing. Um the reason for that is it's only a thousand dollars worth of risk
Speaker A
because I paid a thousand dollars for it. Basically, I just had to buy four evals and pass one. So, I just tilted and risked a thousand dollars. So, whatever, it's break even, right?
Speaker A
Conversely, if I go on tilt and I have this 10K account that's about to take a payout, and then I blow that entire thing, that's like obviously 10 times as worse cuz I just blew 10 times as much
Speaker A
money. So, if you ever feel yourself going on tilt, you're going to revenge trade, you're going to FOMO, then at least send it in on an account that's worth incredibly less. Um another example of just how much expected value
Speaker A
changes across accounts is even if you have a funded account that's a thousand dollars in profit, maybe it was up 2K and you lost 1K. Now you're at 1K, you're you're tilted. What are you going to do? If you want to risk that whole
Speaker A
1K, do a one-to-one, I mean, you can go for it, but uh that's a thousand dollars worth of real risk.
Speaker A
If you go on to Lucid, you buy 10 evaluations for a hundred dollars each, you could full port 10 evaluations straight, get more fun out of it, and it's the exact same risk as doing that one-to-one plus or minus thousand dollar
Speaker A
trade. So, what I wanted to to sum up in this video is obviously that psychology is is mostly cope, at least in my opinion. I know everyone's going to have different opinions, but but I think that strong opinion is what has contributed a
Speaker A
lot to the success that I've had in trading. Um and if you ever do feel yourself going on any sort of trading tilt rage, then at least now you know you can risk on a bunch of evals. You
Speaker A
can literally gamble 10 evals. It's the same as one account. And then also there you're going to have way less variance, right? Because coin flipping a thousand bucks on a funded account is like really high variance. So, obviously win or
Speaker A
lose, randomly trading rageful on 10 evaluations, I mean, you're probably going to pass at least two, right? Like I said, worst case it's break even. If you're full porting, probably get two or three. So, you never lose variance for
Speaker A
sure if you ever feel yourself going into tilt, but I wanted to make that point where it's honestly mostly mostly cope. Like people are going to tell you if you traded bad, it's because of your psychology. Gurus are going to tell you
Speaker A
that, mentors are going to tell you that, you probably are going to tell yourself that. If I traded bad, it must be my psychology. And I want you to take away from this video that most of the time it's not.
Speaker A
It might sound weird, but I promise I'm not going to come on here and lie for no reason.
Speaker A
And I am not uninformed. I've taught probably over 500 people how to begin trading.
Speaker A
And honestly, it's the same problem in in most people. They blame, "I'm so tilted. It's the psychology." But worst case, it's break even with higher risk, right? There's not such thing as taking wrong trades if they're completely random. So, really just take into
Speaker A
account that it's most likely your strategy that is not working, especially over a long period of time. If you have a good strategy, then it might be a little bit more about your your risk management. But then again, psychology,
Speaker A
it's break even. Worst case, it's just bad risk management. So, if you can do what I said earlier, implement a trading plan, not a trading suggestion, where you go step by step, "If I ever tilt, I'm going to risk these accounts."
Speaker A
Something like that, maybe. Or just don't tilt because you know it's very step by step.
Speaker A
It's very step by step. You're just running a trading game plan. It's very simulated. Obviously, we're on prop firm, so it is pretty simulated in general. But I try and simulate it like a game, like a video game, like a trade
Speaker A
these accounts today, these accounts, these profit targets, these stop losses. Look for this in the market on this account. That sort of stuff. So, I feel like I've turned trading into a game, and it's created very strong psychology
Speaker A
or a a pretty strong risk management approach in general, because honestly, risk management is the most important thing on prop firms.
Speaker A
I know I keep saying it, but it is 100% true. And if you feel yourself going into the deep end of bad trading psychology, then just work on your risk management. That instantly is going to help you, because if you tilt, why not
Speaker A
follow optimal risk management? Why not trade the lower variance accounts, right? Like there's so much you can do for yourself if you ever feel yourself going into these bad places. You can still go into those bad places, but it's
Speaker A
100% not going to be as bad. If you gamble the evals instead of gambling your profit funded accounts, if you follow optimal risk even when you tilt.
Speaker A
Like it it should be pretty easy to follow optimal risk, even if you're tilting, right? Like just make sure you're risking exactly this much. I mean, might as well, cuz usually when I feel like I'm tilting or when I know
Speaker A
people are tilting or or like that, they're just looking to feel something. They're just looking to see numbers on their screen. They're looking to say, "I have $1,000 left. I don't care if I lose it. I just want to hit big and win
Speaker A
everything back." Well, I tell you Gambling Evals is is pretty fun and is much less risky than doing that with a funded account. And I mean, you might as well use optimal risk, right?
Speaker A
Uh you could even go play Blackjack if you want to risk a lot less, like $100 a hand on Blackjack.
Speaker A
It's probably more fun than randomizing on your funded account, at least for me. So, there's definitely a lot of things that you can do to improve your trading psychology. And uh yeah, that's why I think it's not a real thing and it's
Speaker A
mostly cope.
Topics:trading psychologytrading strategytrading edgerisk managementtrading planconfidence in tradingtrading mathprop firm tradingtrading mindsetJJ Simon











