🟢 Технический анализ для ТОЛПЫ. Читай рынок по Реальным Данным

Learn how to analyze crypto markets using real monetary data like volume and liquidations, avoiding common beginner mistakes in technical analysis.

Key Takeaways

Avoid buying dips or averaging down against the trend without real data confirmation.
Traditional technical analysis tools do not show real money flow and can mislead traders.
Analyze volume, open interest, liquidations, and delta to see market maker activity.
Market makers profit by trapping retail traders before triggering price reversals.
Stop relying on subjective chart drawings and focus on objective monetary indicators.

What the video covers

Many traders mistakenly buy coins after large drops, believing the bottom is reached, only to see prices fall further.
Common technical analysis tools like trendlines and indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands) are based on price data and do not reflect real monetary flows.
The video emphasizes analyzing real data such as volume, open interest, liquidations, and delta to understand market maker behavior.
Market makers absorb retail traders' positions, causing price moves that trap those buying dips or averaging down.
Traders often work against the trend by buying in falling markets or shorting rising ones, leading to losses.
Support and resistance zones drawn on charts are subjective and do not guarantee price reactions.
The video shows how market makers build positions and trigger price reversals only after retail traders are liquidated.
Understanding real monetary indicators helps traders avoid common pitfalls and better time entries and exits.
The presenter encourages abandoning traditional chart drawings and focusing on data-driven analysis.
The video aims to reveal the true market dynamics behind price movements, helping traders make informed decisions.

Chapters

Why do traders often lose money buying dips in crypto markets?

Traders lose money because they assume the price can't fall further after a big drop and buy the dip, but prices can continue dropping multiple times, leading to losses and liquidations.

What is wrong with traditional technical analysis tools like MACD and RSI?

These tools are based on price data from candlesticks and do not reflect real monetary flows or market maker activity, making them insufficient for understanding true market dynamics.

How can traders better analyze the crypto market according to this video?

Traders should focus on real data such as volume, open interest, liquidations, and delta to observe market maker behavior and crowd psychology, enabling more informed trading decisions.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

Friends, if you've ever bought a coin that dropped 50, 70, or 90% and told yourself: "That's it, this is definitely the bottom." "It can't get any cheaper, it has nowhere left to fall, it's the perfect time to buy," then this video is for you. Almost all

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beginners, and even worse, experienced traders, make this mistake. And I don't need to know you personally to know that you've done this too. Everyone's psychology is the same. A coin drops, you see a big drawdown of 80 or 90%,

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and you think: "Well, it can only fall to 99%." So, it's a huge discount. And you buy the dip. But the price keeps going lower, and you end up in the red.

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And what do you do then? You average down your position. The price drops another 50%, and you average down again. Has that happened? With every new averaging, it feels like it’s about to turn around any second. The price

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can't fall forever, which means you're buying the asset very profitably and very cheaply. Why do traders make these mistakes? Because they are analyzing the wrong data. That isn't even data at all. Most people in the market call support zones, trendlines, arrows,

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triangles, and rectangles on the chart "analysis." It's called technical analysis. But the market doesn't see your line. It doesn't exist. I could draw every geometric shape on a chart, I could even draw a cat, and the chart wouldn't react to it in any way.

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Indicators that people clutter their terminals with—MACD, stochastics, RSI, moving averages, Bollinger bands—are all based on the same Japanese candlesticks and show you the same thing you already see in the price, just in a different way. There are no

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real monetary indicators in these tools. It's just the open and the close. The high and the low of the candle. But in this video, friends, I will show you the market as it really is. Based on real data: volume, open interest,

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liquidations, delta, and who is actually buying or selling. We will analyze this data on the chart, and you will see the market maker with your own eyes, you will see the crowd, and you will see how it built positions, bought

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the bottom, and averaged down, while the market maker absorbed it all. And it will be impossible to refute.

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Because this won't be my opinion or some subjective assessment. This will be data, these will be numbers, these will be real monetary indicators. And then, at the very end of the video, you will see how the market maker, in two

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moves and two crashes, wipes out absolutely everyone who was catching the bottom and buying the dips. And after that, when not a single long remains, and when all the retail, all the novice traders are wiped out and their positions are closed at a loss or

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through liquidations, exactly from that moment the price will reverse, because it is in these zones that the market maker will fill their own positions and trigger the rebound you were waiting for, but which will be without you, because you will already be closed out.

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So watch this video to the end, because after it, you will no longer be able to look at all the standard indicators that 90% of people in the market use with the same eyes. There is a lot of value here, so let's get started.

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Let’s start, friends, with the fact that novice traders love to catch falling knives and buy the dip, because they are convinced that a coin can go up 1,000%, but can only fall 99%. And so, if something has fallen by 70, 80,

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or 90%, it's a magnificent, phenomenal investment opportunity. You need to buy faster. But they don't understand how the math works, because within those 99% drops there can be dozens of 50%, 30%, and 70% declines. That is, a coin can

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drop by 50%, then another 50%, another 50%, and so on, maybe 10 times over within those 99.99% drops. And the point is, what do people do when, let's say, they opened a long at the highs and the coin starts to correct? They average

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their position because they are in the red. And then the market maker drags the price even lower. What do they do?

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They average down again. And believe me, whether you are buying the dip hoping for a rebound and working against the trend, or you are averaging down a position against the trend, you won't need that 99% drop—you will be

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liquidated much faster. You will become those liquidations much sooner than the next 50% or another 50% drop happens. Do you understand? So, before we move on to analyzing the indicators, and before I show you how you can actually see the

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market maker on the chart, you won't be able to refute this. A clear picture will open up before you. You will be able to see through metrics, through data, through real data. The behavior of the crowd in the market and the

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behavior of the market maker in the market. Before we dive into all this, friends, just stop working against the trend. If a coin is being dumped on money and volume, you do not stand in front of that machine, in front of that

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train. This is diametrically the opposite mistake to when the price is rising on volume, when there is a strong move and you see huge, colossal volume, you get into the green candles and they drag you higher. It’s the

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most elementary mistake; how long can you keep repeating it? There are only two mistakes in the market. Buying a long position too late and riding a correction, or opening a short too early and getting caught in an uptrend.

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And this is always done the same way by all beginner traders. You go against the trend, shorting a strong market and longing a weak one. You try to buy up a market that is falling. And you try to

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sell, or short, a market that is rising. That is just wrong. And yet, everyone does it. What else does everyone do?

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What analysis methods do people use if they aren't analyzing real money, the way we do, if they aren't working with Dolph? People use basic support and resistance zones. I'm not denying that you can see support and resistance zones, but they are never automatically

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an entry point when someone sees one and thinks, "Oh, the coin dropped 50% into a nice little support zone." "The price bounced here, turned around, did a little retest, yes, and went up." "A nice little support zone, must be strong." "You don't actually know if

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it's strong or not." And you think: "Well, it will probably hold." "I'll open a long here for a bounce." "The coin has already fallen 50%." "That's a lot, it lost half its value." But nobody understands, right, that if a coin is

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worth 100 dollars and it lost 50% of its value, it's worth 50, and then it can be worth 25, then 10, then 5, then 2, then 1, and it can lose everything, do you understand? Not just 50% of its value, it can become completely

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worthless because we trade altcoins, they aren't worth anything. And people, working with basic support and resistance zones, believe that touching some line they drew on the chart is enough to open a position. Do you realize that the chart doesn't see your

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line, the market doesn't see your trend line or your support zone? They don't exist. It’s just a drawing on the chart. I could draw a whirlpool. I could draw, you know, a cat. And do you think the chart is going to somehow

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react to my cat—pardon the scribbles—but that’s just kindergarten, that’s just nonsense. Furthermore, one person will draw a trend like this, another like that, and a third one from somewhere completely different. You can have different trends, different zones,

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different support levels. You might not even be drawing what you’re supposed to. And the sooner you stop putting any drawings on the chart at all, the sooner you will find yourselves, friends, in the adult world of analysis. Because if you think that drawing on

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a chart means doing analysis, I hate to break it to you, but that’s not the case. And I realize that 90% of the people who come into trading know about technical analysis. And technical analysis means drawings on a chart, a

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trend, then some bull flag, breakouts, flags, rectangles, heads and shoulders, double tops, double bottoms, some bear triangles where the price is suppos...

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You’ve been zombified, drawing the same things over and over, and it's all wrong. After a while, I realize that for a small number of people, their consciousness awakens, and they realize : "Hmm, most likely, drawings on a chart really do sound like nonsense."

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And they start adding indicators to the chart, thinking that an indicator on the chart will also give them some kind of analysis. Every indicator available on TradingView is tied to the Japanese candlestick. All moving averages, MACD, stochastics, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and

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Ichimoku—everything you use is just five values: candle open, candle close, candle high, candle low, and volume.

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These are the five numbers all indicator formulas are built on; they just smooth out the past, divide the numerator by the denominator, multiply, subtract, and that’s it—they draw a line on your chart. There is no point in this because, in fact, I repeat, all

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indicators are just the candle itself. It's the same as if you read a book— that is, read the price—and then read that same book in different fonts. Or with pictures, or without. You're reading the same thing, but people get

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even that wrong. And naturally, market makers and informed market participants know how a beginner trader thinks and what they see. And they see: "Okay, the price is falling, it dropped 50%once, then another 50%, that's almost 80% together." The price has stabilized. We

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have a support zone there. There's a halt at the support zone. Wait, wait, wait. What else do we have? We have the MACD indicator. It turned from red to green. The decline is no longer as aggressive. Stabilization is slowly

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beginning. There is a support zone. The trend line is broken. The price has moved into a sideways range. This is accumulation. This will be a perfect opportunity to open a long. We're about to fly upward. You've drawn all of this

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out. Trend lines, support, added indicators, and the price went against you by another 50%. Do you think like that? Okay. It means these indicators aren't enough for me. I'll add the RSI, too. It's an overbought and oversold indicator, after all, and the coin is

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already incredibly oversold. We have, look, on the RSI indicator we have one bullish divergence, a second bullish divergence, a third bullish divergence, and a fourth bullish divergence. Our oscillator indicator is rising here.

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The trend is rising. Well, this time the trend is definitely broken. This time the price has definitely moved into a sideways range. Here we have bullish strength. Here we have bullish strength. Here our trend is already slowly starting to become bullish.

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Let's open long positions. Here, here, here. People see all of this. People read the chart like this. But isn't this you? Are you trying to say that you have never used these indicators?

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The moving averages crossed right here for the first time. That's it, the trend is no longer bearish, not here according to the moving averages, because they crossed, right, two lines on the chart intersected. You can open a long position here. And you will add

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a million other indicators here. And all of this will still be based on Japanese candlesticks. What is a candle ? Where in this candle do you see real money? Where do you see the difference between aggressive buyers and sellers?

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Where do you see the long-to-short ratio? Where in these indicators, which simply average prices over the fourteen previous openings or closings, where moving averages smooth out past movements from 14 hours or 14 days ago —where do you expect to see real open

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exchange positions, funding, who pays whom, the aggressor on the buyer or seller side, or trader liquidations?

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Where will you see that? Nowhere. But now we are going to move on to mature analysis. And we will examine this exact same movement from the perspective of what the monetary indicators show us. One by one, gradually. Starting from the very

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beginning of the correction. The first fundamental rule: you never go against the money. Trading volume is the most accurate, cleanest reflection of how much money is changing hands between buyers and sellers, how many positions are being transferred. If you see a

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powerful impulse movement down from market highs on colossal volumes— volumes that are tens of times higher than the volumes in the sideways range before it—you never stand against this money. The market will swallow you whole and won't even spit out the bones

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. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being traded here on a sharp downward move. This means that, on one side, these hundreds of millions of dollars are being sold. And as you can see from the order book, the selling power is

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greater since the price is going down, and if you stand against these sales thinking you will catch a buyback and a reversal, they will drag you even further down. Next, friends, how do you see the market maker's actions? How do

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you see how the two sides of the market interact with each other? That is open interest. These are positions that are accumulating and are not being closed.

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And we see open interest rising as the market falls. This means that as the market drops, new longs and new shorts are being opened in equal proportion.

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That is the only way open interest can grow. And we see this accumulation of open interest throughout the entire decline. This means that throughout this bearish trend, one side is shorting the market, while the other is going long. I always approach open

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interest with this question in mind. If it is growing, it means both longs and shorts are entering positions. Who is more likely to lose money? On which side is an uninformed beginner trader more likely to be? A person who sees

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the chart incorrectly, someone looking at a standard chart who doesn't see real percentages because they aren't using a logarithmic scale. Someone who doesn't study volume or look at other indicators. How does such a person think? Oh, the coin dropped 80%, great

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time to buy. Do you think a beginner is more interested in shorting a coin after an 80%drop, or longing it? Try to recall how you work. If a coin has already fallen by 80%and you think it can only fall by another 99%, it

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doesn't seem that interesting to short, yet you still want to trade. And you think: "Well, if the coin dropped 80%, it needs to grow 400%to get back.""I'll probably open a long." And, of course, beginners buy the dip after such

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massive drops. They go long, long, long , and buy on the spot market. They think: "Well, the coin was up 20x before this.""That means it was a good coin.""I'll buy the dip on the spot, and in a couple of months, it will

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recover." And the market maker absorbs all of this in the opposite direction for further decline. There have been hundreds of such charts for altcoins.

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And for all the beginners buying the bottom, averaging down their losses, or entering based on various indicators and opening longs, the market maker builds an equal number of short positions against them. Let's move on.

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Look at the next metric. This is the difference between aggressive buying and selling on the spot market. We are looking at the spot market now. And this histogram shows where and in what volume purchases are occurring via market orders. Market orders—when you

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open the exchange and simply hit the buy button, not with a limit order, but with a market order—are used primarily in 95%of cases by regular people. Institutions, large capital, whales, as you call them, never use market orders because they would pay

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three times the commission for it. Furthermore, a market order causes slippage. A whale always fills their position with limit orders at reversal points against the aggressive buying or selling of retail traders. And this metric can show us how, with great

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enthusiasm during this entire dip, a huge number of people were buying up bags on the spot market here. Right here, and here, and here. In other words, throughout the entire decline and all the sideways movements, the crowd was building positions here. We

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can see this for ourselves. Moving on, friends, let's adjust this to see it better. On the next metric, we can see how the number of longs in the market was growing. That is, as the price falls, we see an increase in the number

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of longs relative to shorts. And we can also see that as the price falls, as positions are accumulated, and as the crowd buys up the coin on the spot market, the number of long positions in the futures market increases as well.

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And when the market maker has accumulated the bulk of the longs, opened shorts, and sold into these purchases, it's time to move to the phase of killing off all those longs with the next aggressive dips. And we can see that all the positions

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accumulated here were wiped out by the next two sharp dips, each of which was 40%, 40%, and 50%. We are now going to see how all those longs that were buying the dip from the very beginning were exterminated. Look at the changes

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in the indicators that I will show you next. The price is falling down. The market maker, who opened their shorts beforehand, breaks through all supports and drags the price down by 40%on this decline. This is the first wave of

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capitulation for everyone who was buying. Look, there were impulsive purchases here, and they are closing at the market price, via stop-losses, in a panic sell-off. We see a sharp closing of positions at the market price. Next, look, friends, we see the difference

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between longs and shorts in the market. This shows us the Net Delta. Look at how aggressive and sharp the closing of long positions is. Long positions are effectively sells. We have market sells . We have sells in the futures market.

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And we have panic selling in the spot market. Look at how the market maker continues to buy up this dip here. We see an increase in open interest, we see colossal sales on futures. Look, it's many times greater than before.

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What are sales on futures? They are stop-losses, liquidations, and forced position closures. And we see a huge cluster of long liquidations right here . People who lost their money, who were averaging down, and averaging down again, face a colossal volume of

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futures sales, accompanied by a massive volume of liquidations, fully flushing all longs out of their positions. We see this here, with panic selling in the spot market. And this is repeated in two acts: on this decline and on

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this decline. Even more aggressive position accumulation, one more finishing blow to the longs, and even greater accumulation by the market maker. We can see it right here. Even more futures selling with liquidations.

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In two stages, you could say, in two acts. One. Two. The market maker completely knocks everyone out of the market who entered earlier and bought into this initial dip. All positions that entered the market earlier, all these buys, all these longs that were

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growing, all these new participants who opened long positions, they all lost money here. What does this mean? If such a large number of positions were closed on one side—large sales, huge liquidations—but on the other side, we see open interest rising. It means

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that all this massive, colossal market sell volume—because we see market sales on the spot, long position closures, and liquidations, which are sales. Sales in the futures market, sales in the spot market, but positions are accumulating. This means that all

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these sales were absorbed by the market maker on the other side. They opened their own long positions into these sales. In order for them to open millions and millions of dollars in long positions, they need a counter-volume of sales. How can they

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get this sell volume? Only through your liquidations and stop-losses. In one place. They place their limit order in advance where a huge volume of market sales will occur. These are stop-losses and liquidations. And that is where they fill their position, one. They

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place the order, fill their position, two. Filling, filling, accumulation, accumulation. And after everyone has been knocked out of the market, the price turns around and makes a 300% rebound. And all the people who wanted to catch the rebound before this and

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were averaging down would have gotten that rebound if they had entered from confirmed entry points instead of ahead of time, as everyone else does. All these metrics that we have analyzed together, friends, are part of my analysis method. And it is not based on

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lines and arrows on a chart, or triangles and squares, and definitely not on indicators that show the same thing as the price. All of this is based solely on things where changes measurable in money actually take place . These are volumes, open interest,

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delta, funding, liquidations, long-short ratios, imbalances between longs and shorts, liquidity clusters, footprints, and everything that shows the real movement of capital. But even this, friends, must be in line with context and common sense. I can openly show you everything I use and how I do

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it. I hide nothing from you, I show you everything. But how many times have I seen, friends, beginners watch my videos, pick things up, and go: "Right, what is Shchukin using here? This kind of indicator, these kinds of data."

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They add it to their charts and then trade haphazardly. They neglect risk management, work without a trading system, and lack a clear strategy built on mathematical expectation. And even using the same tools, the results will differ. I've been working with these

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metrics for 3 years, analyzed thousands of charts, opened 1,000 trades, while someone who entered the market 3 months ago, watched the video 3 days ago, added it to their chart, misunderstood the correlations, missed the point, made a mistake, and blew their account

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anyway. Some people ask me: "Dmitry, how is this possible? The coin is rising, but the open interest isn't.

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How can that be?" How is that possible? You said the move should be confirmed by new money, by new open positions.

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They don't understand all the interconnections, and then they get liquidated on some pump because they rushed to open a short, thinking that a certain metric must dictate the price.

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Therefore, my dear friends, remember: above any concept, above any method of market analysis, always stands the principle of managing your deposit.

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This is your risk management and money management. No indicator, even the most precise one that shows real cash flow, will protect your funds from yourself if you neglect the risks. That is why it is the most important thing. Analyze

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the right data, friends. It is advisable to get rid of all the indicators used by the crowd. And the sooner you stop drawing arrows and lines on your chart, the more likely you are to see positive changes in your

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trading statistics sooner. I hope this video was useful to you. If so, then as always, hit the fire button and let's move on. Yeah.

Topics:crypto tradingtechnical analysismarket makervolume analysisopen interestliquidationstrading psychologybuy the dipaveraging downreal data trading

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