Can Shipping Return to the Strait of Hormuz Before a US–Iran Deal?

Discussion on US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz shipping, and global diplomacy during the UN General Assembly week.

Key Takeaways

US-Iran tensions significantly affect global energy markets and inflation.
Dialogue between Azerbaijan and Iran remains complex amid regional security concerns.
Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz's safe passage could progress independently of broader conflict resolution.
Donald Trump's public statements are viewed as inconsistent and possibly bluster, with real negotiations happening behind the scenes.
The UN's effectiveness in managing global conflicts and crises is under scrutiny.

What the video covers

The video covers global diplomatic efforts during the UN General Assembly, focusing on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Tensions between the US and Iran, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are a central topic.
James Sharp, a former diplomat, discusses the economic impact of the US-Iran conflict on global oil prices and inflation.
The relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran is explored, highlighting regional tensions and accusations involving Israeli forces.
The potential for a US-Iran deal before the November midterm elections is analyzed, with skepticism about Donald Trump's statements.
The possibility of resolving safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz independently of wider conflict is discussed.
The role of the UN and international institutions in addressing these conflicts and global challenges like climate change is questioned.
Regional actors such as Oman and Gulf states are noted as facilitators in negotiations.
The video touches on broader geopolitical dynamics, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on Europe.
Calls for UN reform and the challenges in achieving it due to veto powers and council membership are briefly mentioned.

Chapters

Can shipping safely return to the Strait of Hormuz before a US-Iran deal is finalized?

Yes, it is possible. An earlier agreement allowed toll-free, unrestricted access for 60 days, but differing interpretations led to attacks. Resolving safe passage could be separate from broader conflict resolution.

What is the significance of Azerbaijan's dialogue with Iran during the UN week?

Azerbaijan and Iran have a complicated relationship, with tensions over accusations of Israeli forces in Azerbaijan and concerns about regional corridors. Dialogue aims to clarify positions amid wider regional tensions.

How do US midterm elections affect US-Iran negotiations?

Iranians may be waiting until after the November midterms to see if US leadership changes or becomes more constrained by Congress, impacting negotiation dynamics and timing of any potential deal.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

Hello, welcome to ID Talks here at A University. My name is Anastasia Labina. World leaders are addressing the UN General Assembly, aimed at the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the United States and Iran, and growing doubts about whether international institutions can respond effectively. In his opening address, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for stronger cooperation and warned that force is outpacing diplomacy. What do the speeches in New York tell us about the direction of global politics, and can the meetings behind the scenes produce more than declarations? Joining me now is a former diplomat, James Sharp. Warm welcome.

Speaker A

Always a pleasure. Mr. Sharp, thank you so much for your time. Aarajan's Foreign Minister, Jun Barramov, attended the official opening ceremony of the general debate of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. As it was stated on the official social media platform of the ministry, this week is a platform for dialogue on shared global priorities. How would you characterize this week for global diplomacy?

Speaker A

Well, I mean, under the United Nations General Assembly week, which takes place every year, of course, I think, to be frank, every year it's described as the platform for discussing all of these major international issues. One of the things, of course, still dominating the world is the US-Iran conflict and the damage that is now causing to other countries around the world. And that, of course, was a big feature of Trump's speech, and I think everyone is looking for signs about whether there will be some resolution to the conflict because that is causing a lot of countries around the world immense economic damage, including the United Kingdom, of course, and Western European countries, with very high oil prices leading to higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates, leading to problems for governments.

Speaker A

I mean, obviously, Azerbaijan is in a different position to that because higher oil prices are actually quite beneficial for a country like Azerbaijan, but nevertheless, that remains one of the biggest issues which the world does need to tackle at the moment, obviously, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. That, of course, has been going on much longer than the US-Iran conflict, but is still causing a huge amount of concern and damage to Europe in particular, but also just the damage it's causing to the whole international system. I think that's, for me, if you're having a UN week, then it clearly has to be looking at the UN itself as well, and what is the role of the UN in actually dealing with these conflicts, and where is it succeeding, where is it failing, what have you.

Speaker A

So, yeah, the question of climate change, I know, is being discussed as well, and that remains one of the biggest existential things for the world. To be frank, it's fallen down in terms of political salience in a lot of countries around the world in the last year. There's no doubt about it, with more people in Europe particularly concerned about energy prices, for example, coming back to what I was saying about the impact of the Iran conflict on energy prices and inflation. But these are all huge issues. It's a very difficult time for the world for all sorts of reasons: ongoing conflicts and major global issues such as climate change still will have to be resolved.

Speaker A

Minister Barramov has also met Iran's foreign minister during this United Nations week. What importance does dialogue between Azerbaijan and Iran have at a time of wider regional tension?

Speaker A

Well, I think Azerbaijan's relationship with Iran has always been quite tricky. Let's be honest and honest about it. They've never been the best of friends. I think at the moment the issues seem to revolve around accusations that Azerbaijan has been hosting Israeli forces to launch attacks on Iran, which of course has been totally denied by the Azerbaijani government, and the trip project as well, of course, and the Iranian views on the corridor that may link Azerbaijan proper with Nakhchivan, and so that wider being part of the wider middle corridor as well. So Iran has had a lot of views on that as well.

Speaker A

So I think there are some very specific issues which Azerbaijan and Iran do need to make sure they're on the same page about.

Speaker A

Mr. President Donald Trump has raised the prospect of an agreement with Iran while also warning of further escalation. How do you read that message, and what would indicate that the contacts in New York are making real progress?

Speaker A

I mean, to be honest, I think most of us have stopped listening to this sort of stuff from Donald Trump. I hate to say it, but he is the American president. But there's so much of this stuff that comes out of, you know, one hand is annihilation, the other hand it's all good negotiations and good meetings and what have you. So, you know, negotiations are clearly continuing.

Speaker A

And Trump himself suggested that the Iranians are waiting until after the November midterm elections in the US to see whether or not they get a president who is more constrained by Congress. So why not? I mean, the Iranians are very, very good negotiators. Make no mistake about this, some of the world's best negotiators. And I think that the American administration and Donald Trump are finding this out, and they found that actually the objectives they went into the conflict with, which is the new Iranian nuclear weapons, support for terrorism in the region, and also ballistic missile proliferation, now their focus has shifted almost entirely towards unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaker A

So it seems a radical change in the whole situation, and clearly the Americans aren't in control of the situation. I think what we saw was just more Donald Trump bluster, whereas behind the scenes, I think hopefully some sensible negotiations are going on. But when they will conclude, I don't know. It may well be that it'll be after the November midterms. It may well be that the Americans are very keen to do a deal before that because for them, what they're looking at is what the American electorate is voting on, what the big issues are for them, and one of them is the Iran war, where there is strong opposition to what's happening.

Speaker A

Affordability was one of Donald Trump's big promises as well, of course, with the price of petrol, or gas as they call it in America, up at record highs. That is also a big loser for a vote for him. Immigration was a big issue for him, one of the issues which helped win him the election, but now it's done very well in terms of reducing illegal immigration, but it's now turned into not so much of a positive because of the overreach by the ICE teams and the Department of Homeland Security in terms of arresting people.

Speaker A

So, yeah, I can see that he would want a big win before the November midterm election. So it may well be that he'll be looking to do a deal before then, but it just feels like more of the same, frankly, his speech yesterday.

Speaker A

Can the question of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz be resolved before the wider conflict is settled?

Speaker A

Yes, it can, because it was originally, I think, in June, wasn't it, an agreement was signed which said that you will have toll-free access to the Strait of Hormuz, unrestricted access through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. The Iranians then interpreted that agreement in a particular way, different from the Americans and Omanis, and Iranians then launched attacks on shipping going through.

Speaker A

foreign minister during this United Nations week. What importance does dialogue between Azarban and Iran have at a time of wider regional tension?

Speaker A

Well, I think I think that Aabaijan Aaban's relationship with Iran has always been quite quite tricky. Let's be honest and honest about it. They never been the best of friends. Um I think at the moment that the issues you seem to

Speaker A

re revolve around a accusations that Azaba has been hosting Israeli forces to launch attacks on Iran, which of course has been totally denied by the Aabai government. uh and the the trip project as well of course and the Iranian views

Speaker A

on the corridor that may link Asbaijan proper with with Nakjavan and so w that wider being part of the wider middle corridor as well. So Iran has had a lot of views on that as well. Um so I think

Speaker A

there are kind of some very very specific issues which Azabaijan and Iran do need to you know make sure they're on the same page about Mr.

Speaker A

President Donald Trump has raised the prospect of an agreement with Iran while also warning of further escalation. How do you read that message and what would indicate that the contacts in New York are making the real progress?

Speaker A

I mean to be honest I think we've most of us have stopped listening to this sort of stuff from Donald Trump. I hate to say it but he is American president.

Speaker A

But there's so much of this stuff that comes out of, you know, one hand is annihilation, the other hand it's all good good negotiations and good meetings and what have you. Um, so you know, negotiations are clearly continuing. Um,

Speaker A

and Trump himself suggested that the Iranians are waiting until after the November midterm elections in the US to see whether or not they get a a president who is more constrained by Congress. Um, you know, so why not? I

Speaker A

mean, the Iranians are very very very good negotiators. make no mistake about this that some of the world's best negotiators um and I think that you know the American administration and Donald Trump are finding this out and they

Speaker A

found that actually the objectives they went into the conflict with which is you know the new Iranian nuclear weapons uh support for terrorism in the region and also ballistic missile missile proliferation now their focus has shifted almost entirely towards you

Speaker A

unblocking the straight of Hormuz um so it seems a radical change in in the whole situation and clearly the Americans aren't in control of the situation and I think that you know what we saw was just you know more Donald

Speaker A

Trump bluster whereas behind the scenes I think hopefully some sensible negotiations are going on but you know when when they will conclude I I I don't know it may well be that it'll be after the November midterms it may well be

Speaker A

that the Americans are very keen to do a deal before that because you know for them you know what they're looking at is you know what is what are the American electorates voting on um what are the big issues for them and one of them is

Speaker A

the Iran war where the strong opposition to what's happening. Uh affordability was one of Donald Trump's big promises as well. Of course, with the price of petrol or gas as they call it in America up at record highs, that is also a big

Speaker A

big loser for a vote loser for him. Um uh immigration was a big issue for him.

Speaker A

one of the issues which helped win him the election, but now it's done very well in terms of reducing illegal immigration, but it's now turned into not so much of a positive because of the overreach by the ICE team's Department

Speaker A

of Homeland Security in terms of arresting people. So, yeah, I can see that he would want a big win before the November and midterm election. So, it may well be that he'll be looking to do a deal before then, but I don't. It just

Speaker A

feels like more of the same, frankly, his speech yesterday. Can the question of safe passage through the straight of Hormus be resolved before the wider conflict is settled?

Speaker A

Uh yes it can um because I mean it was I mean was originally I think it was in June wasn't anou signed which which said that you will have to tollfree access to threat of hummus unrestricted access and

Speaker A

through straight of Hummus for 60 days. Um you know the Iranians then interpreted that agreement in a particular way uh in different to the Americans and Omanis and Iranians then launched attacks on shipping going through the straight of Hammers. Um so

Speaker A

there is a precedent for actually coming to some sort of agreement on hummus prior to wider negotiations on the overall conflict. But you know as as you know in international diplomacy and texts textual negotiations the devil is in the detail and clearly um you know

Speaker A

the devil sprung out from the detail in terms of the theou and so it could happen again but we could have a sort of a temporary a temporary agreement on the trade of homes. And another question, could the countries neighboring Iran

Speaker A

play a useful diplomatic role in reducing the tensions even if they are not formal mediators between Washington and Tehran?

Speaker A

Yeah, Pakistan, Oman as well of course was heavily involved in um helping to facilitate talks and negotiations. Kata has been as well. Um you know, so yes, definitely. And I think that the the Gulf states in particular have a very

Speaker A

very strong interest in making sure there is some sort of peaceful resolution because you know I've talked about how western countries around the world have suffered from high energy prices. Um the Gulf countries have suffered even more in many ways. They've

Speaker A

had direct attacks upon civilian infrastructure um of deselination plants you name it and they've also then not been able to export their kind of primary export products. they're in big economic trouble. Um, and they they have a very very strong interest in finding a

Speaker A

solution. But on the same the same token, I think they just need to make sure they don't if you like capitulate and accept Iranian domination of the Gulf because that I think in long term that would be equally disastrous for

Speaker A

them. President of Turkey Reap Berdogan has again called for reform of the security council and an end to the veto privilege of its permanent members. How compelling is Turkeykey's argument? We shouldn't ignore that calls to reform the security

Speaker A

council are growing louder. What change would actually make it more effective? Um I I don't know is the answer to that last question. Um you know it's there's been there have been calls for UN reform for many many years and the United

Speaker A

Kingdom government when I was a diplomat was supporting these calls for reform. Uh the United Kingdom approach was to broaden the broaden the the number of permanent members and we were looking at countries like India for example and

Speaker A

some country in Africa and country in South America to join just to make him more globally representative. Um but the question of the veto is you very very complicated as you can imagine. Um, and I see the French, the United Kingdom has

Speaker A

just joined a French Mexican uh initiative to to call for the removal of the veto in cases of genocide or crimes against humanity or s mass mass um mass killings. Um, you know, uh, that's France and UK signed up to that. Will

Speaker A

Russia sign up to that? No, of course not. Will China sign up to that? No, of course not. Will the US sign up to that?

Speaker A

No, of course not. And you'll always find, you know, at least one of the permanent members will not want to lose a veto. uh you will not want to lose their seat on the council will not want to expand membership. And even amongst

Speaker A

those potential new candidates, you'll find like the Brazilians and the Mexicans, the Argentinians arguing amongst themselves who should be the Latin American representatives. You have Nigerians, Kenyans and South Africans arguing who should be the African representative and then Pakistan of

Speaker A

course wouldn't want India as a permanent as a permanent member. Um, so it's it's just it's just one of these kind of problems which is just so complicated and I I just think it's not it can't be resolved quite frankly is my

Speaker A

personal view of this even though there's a lot of well-meaning attempts to try to to make the council more representative, more effective. Um, but it's just very difficult to see how how that can happen personally. Sorry, sorry to sound quite negative about that, but

Speaker A

it's this this these questions have been raised for years and years and years and got nowhere whatsoever.

Speaker A

Mr. Sharp, thank you. Thank you for your time. Thank you for joining Kite Talks today.

Speaker A

Always a pleasure. Thank you so much.

Topics:US-Iran relationsStrait of HormuzUN General AssemblyAzerbaijan-Iran relationsglobal diplomacyoil pricesMiddle East conflictRussia-Ukraine warinternational institutionsclimate change

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