Speaker A
As a Polish grandmother used to say, it's never too late to hand over your money and kiss someone's ass, right?
Insights on real estate buying, living beyond means, and the Anti-Mortgage project for smarter property investment.
Key Takeaways
- Holding cash provides leverage in real estate negotiations.
- Mortgages carry significant risks and can lead to financial loss.
- The Anti-Mortgage project offers a structured, conservative investment approach.
- Developers should adapt to buyers' financial models, not vice versa.
- Informed decision-making and realistic expectations are crucial in property investment.
What the video covers
- The video discusses the concept of living beyond one's means and the current real estate market conditions.
- It highlights the power of holding cash when negotiating property deals and the risks of mortgages.
- The speaker critiques developers' claims about high demand and price hikes, revealing varied realtor offers.
- Introduces the Anti-Mortgage project, a model designed to fit specific financial and real estate needs.
- The project emphasizes conservative asset investment, strict rules, and realistic returns (30-40%).
- The ecosystem includes calculators, analysis tools, and community support for property investment.
- The speaker shares personal experiences from past economic crises to illustrate market dynamics.
- Warnings about the instability of long-term mortgages and the importance of understanding terms.
- Encourages buyers to demand developers adjust to their financial models rather than the reverse.
- The video stresses knowledge and caution in real estate investments to avoid financial pitfalls.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction and Market Overview
- 02:53Power of Cash in Real Estate Deals
- 05:48Historical Market Experience and Strategy
- 08:31Current Market Opportunities and Challenges
- 11:36Anti-Mortgage Project and Investment Models
- 20:20Risks of Mortgages and Developer Dynamics
- 24:01Investment Caution and Final Thoughts
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
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And this applies to literally everything in this life. Especially to buying property or anything else, first and foremost, right now. I mean, perhaps only when there's some mega, I don't know, discount, mega sale, or some mega conditions. Well, probably
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yes. Probably yes. What will this be about? As always, about what is called living beyond your means, or conversely, living better than you could ever imagine. About real estate, and the kind of terms they are already starting
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to offer. A video about this came out just recently. I tasked several realtors across multiple areas, and offers are pouring in from all sides.
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And it seems to me that developers are ultimately in the same deep, right? And it’s just that they veiledly claim that no, everything is being swept up, everything is in demand, and some bold guy hikes up the prices,
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raises everything, you know. I say, "Oh, you guys, what are you talking about?
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None of you even have anyone selling anything via assignment anymore." Well, I mean, I’m really surprised that if a person has a lot of money, or if he's, I don't know, some dumb official or a crooked traffic cop, surely that
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doesn't exist anymore, right? I remember when I was in the car business, we also had those services for vehicle registration at the traffic police. That is, 20-25 years ago, by the way, I was the first in Russia to
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legalize it, pushed it through the central traffic office—that was a separate story—and effectively legalized that service. But at first, it was all run by "street rules," right? And I remember one traffic cop who worked with us was trying to explain
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something: "I’m a traffic cop, I don’t know how to talk." Is that who this is all aimed at, or what? What the developers are saying, offering these schemes, like, "Well, you have the money, just buy this." They say, "Buy
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it." Oh, alright then. So. Well, yeah. But if you’re a little bit smarter, you start asking questions, comparing, and saying, "Guys, your place costs this much, hello?" Right? I mean, they’re already starting to send me offers, and I’m telling you,
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different realtors offer completely different terms for the same properties. Even now, there are options with a 1% down payment, and when it comes to repayment or installment plans, they are ready to talk. Here is another point I mentioned; yesterday I was
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talking to one of my associates who is involved in the same real estate project, the Anti-Mortgage project. He asks, "How do you manage to stand your ground and dictate terms so firmly to these developers?" I say, "You have to
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understand." As long as you have the money, as long as you hold the cash, you have the power. Once you’ve handed it over to them, that’s it—a client who has already paid is of no further interest. That’s it, you’ve
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taken out the mortgage, you owe the bank, you’re tied up in escrow, repayment issues, and so on—well, theoretically you can still get money back from escrow, right? You’re already in the position of a debtor. As long as they need to sell to you, they
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have to offer you the best terms. What we are building now with the Anti-Mortgage is essentially a model that fits your specific task—meaning, you have certain finances, you have specific real estate needs, and there are market opportunities and all our
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services that we’ve developed, and we look at how well it all fits into the models. If someone comes and says they want to buy a 100-million-ruble apartment with just 100,000, we’ll say, "That’s great, but go into crypto—they’ll tell you how to do
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it there, or there are prop firms that claim you can turn 10,000 into something out of this world." No, I won’t say that. Therefore, if we are looking at conservative assets, we already have all the schemes in place,
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and on Monday I will be holding the first webinar on the Anti-Mortgage where there are already strict rules.
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Positions are monitored, shorting is only for hedging, and we define exactly which instruments can be used and which cannot. Yes, we understand that a return of, say, 30-40% is already a great yield, right? So, there are no 100, 200, 300, or 500 percent returns.
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If a person, well, needs to make a movie, then they need to go into trading. Yes, I'm not saying it's impossible, but it will be a different story. We will also incorporate this into the model, but we will immediately
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say: "This is a full-blown business or job if you have such a model." But we need to understand if it’s compatible with life, right? Therefore, I repeat, all the schemes, all the calculators, everything we are doing, we are
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creating an ecosystem. This is not a course, not a program, it is a separate project with a community, with a full ecosystem, where from the analysis of, let's say, properties and feasibility, and so on, to how to bring it to life,
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with all the resources we have already created during this time. And I repeat, it should be like a template, where I take a certain model, here is how much money I am ready to invest, here is how much I am ready to contribute, how much
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it costs, what about the mortgage, will I rent it out or not. Well, if someone needs to rent it out, yes. And then, accordingly, we fit into a certain financial model. And we need the developer to adjust to this financial
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model, you understand, so that everything adds up. Not us adjusting to them, but them adjusting to us. And as I said two years ago, MR Group eventually adjusted. And I heard it as always, just like back in '98, remember
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I told you, when I was building my first house, I was also buying up building materials right when the dollar spiked after that GKO crisis. I would come to the market and say, "Here is my offer." They would say: "Are you
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crazy? Are you out of your mind? We were just selling them recently." I say: "Here is my phone number." You'll need to call. As I say, everyone called, because they needed money. At first, there was this initial shock: "Are you
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serious? That's impossible." I say: "Guys, guys, I have the money, and you have the goods, and soon you will need the money." Real estate is just like money. There is a lot of it, an awful lot of it. And I am now going to show
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you some specific points and cases that I am currently analyzing. So remember the formula: it's never too late to part with your money or kiss someone's backside. And as long as you have the money, you are, as they say, on top of
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the world. Once you’ve given it away, that's it, that's everything. And people who take out a mortgage, I like how sometimes acquaintances, someone tells me they bought an apartment. I ask if they paid for it in cash, just
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like that. No, a 25-year mortgage. I say, they took a mortgage, as they call it abroad. They took out a 25-year mortgage. That’s another question, what the terms are and so on. And there were a bunch of stories in 2009-2014,
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when people lost everything, to hell with it, both the down payment and everything they paid over the period, in 2 or 3 years. I saw that. They needed money. Uh-huh. They needed money. So, when a person takes a mortgage
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and thinks it’s incredibly reliable and stable, especially with these rates, it’s terribly unreliable and unstable. I just watch a lot of episodes that realtors record. You just have to look; if it's Vanya, Vanya Ivanov, or Anya, Anna, or anyone else,
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and it says "real estate agent," of course they're going to push that everything is great. Well, some do admit, "It's not great," but then they say, "We'll make it great." Well, obviously. It’s clear to a hedgehog, as they say. What's that? See, we have
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a hedgehog now. I need to put a hedgehog there. I need a hedgehog. Give me that one from up there, I have this one, I need this character. It’s a trendy character, isn't it? Yes, put it here. Oh, here I am. It’s clear to
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him, yes. Who is that? Who is it? A raccoon. I don't know who that is.
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It’s clear to him. Oh, I have
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head like this. You know, I bought this a long time ago in Nice, I liked this piggy bank. And sometimes you look at all this and think, "Oh my God." You think, "Oh my God," all this, this is
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half a life. Like this. Oh my God, yes. So, I repeat, let’s return to the fact that, um, there are always opportunities in the market, like yesterday I had a story where people were asking about businesses, consultations, and so on. I have a book
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, "Business Without Illusions." They ask, "Can I open a business? Can't open one right now." I say, "At every moment in time, there are opportunities." And the methodology is always the same. I don't know, take books from 12-15 years
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ago; the curriculum hasn't changed, but the question of finding a niche remains the same. In other words, don't just jump into anything. It’s the same, I don't know, with choosing real estate or an apartment. You don't need to buy
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just anything. Why? You shouldn't get into just any venture, like, thinking everything will just grow later. Look at how things have grown. Again, there have always been moments of growth, decline, and stagnation in any market.
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Whether it's gold or any other instrument, you have to seize the right moment. No, like when I recorded a video before, I said: "A correction is coming, and this is where we'll buy." At the masterclass we held last Monday,
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I said: "Yes, I bought a decent amount of palladium, gold had a correction, sure, I got out, goodbye." Yes, so it’s always a question of the entry point. Sometimes it’s better to wait and spend some energy, maybe a little
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bit of money, to figure things out, rather than get into some garbage that will cost you a fortune and take forever to fix. And you'll remain in a high-risk zone. Again, when they are pushing this stuff now, saying, "Oh,
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mortgage rates will drop, guys." Well, I heard that 3 years ago. Okay, right now it is, I don't know, if you have a super credit rating, 17.7%, if you don't take a subsidized loan, and they are canceling those anyway, and even
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with subsidies, let me tell you, they stuff whatever they want into those properties too. It’s limited anyway, right, and they’re going to scrap that subsidy. Sure, some specific groups will remain, obviously. But if we are talking about the general market
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mortgage, 17.7%is the minimum, going up to 24%. Even at 17.7%, just do the math , and you won't like the result. Plus, there will be insurance, commissions, and all that stuff added on, everything will be just fine, right. So, I repeat,
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getting into a deal like that is actually exposing yourself to massive risk. Massive risk, because even if the rate gradually drops over 3 years, and, I don't know, the mortgage rate falls to 15%or even 13%eventually. Even if the average rate is 15%, let's say,
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you'll still be paying a hell of a lot of money, a massive pile of money to the banks. You'll pay a cosmic amount of money. The mortgage rate starts working at around 11.5, give or take.
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It starts to make more or less sense. It’s more interesting, of course, when it drops down to nine. Yeah, five or six, that stuff they were handing out for free or just everything. Yeah, that’s how they sent real estate into
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outer space. Listen, the Central Bank and Nabiullina did it all. Well, how else? Is it not obvious? You gave out money for free first? And, I’m telling you, you let everyone take everything. Affordable housing. Yeah, it became incredibly unaffordable. And
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that’s a mortgage bubble. It’s a mortgage bubble, you understand? Well, then they raised the rate to twenty, stoked the money again, and devalued it again. Mind-blowing, of course. I also think, of course, some are drawn to the unknown, but we are all in this unknown
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too. Alright, our task is to bring order to it and somehow try to extract huge benefits, or at least some, from any chaos. Therefore, I repeat, this whole mortgage story, where everyone is being pushed, "take it at any price,
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then restructure," I told them, "Guys, no-no-no, don't do it." Now I say, I repeat, it’s still a buyer’s and a renter’s market, no matter what they tell you, and I’ve been saying this for two or three years now. Back at the
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end of twenty-one, I had a run-in with, god, Zubarevich. I said: "What will happen when all this enters one bottleneck?" All of this, right? "Oh, you're wrong, everything will be great.
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" I say: "It won’t be great, it won’t." The only thing I said then was: "You should have shorted Samolyot and all the other developers and made money on that." Let’s return to the truth of life, so to speak. Look, first
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of all, as I said, they are sending stuff in, I will post some screenshots later, and I will, of course, do further reviews. I repeat, we are launching a project now where it will all be within the system, we will
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discuss everything. Moreover, it doesn’t matter, because this model is universal. You just apply this template , I don't know, Moscow, Kostroma, Yaroslavl, or maybe Krasnodar. What difference does it make where? There is absolutely no difference, yes. But if
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you are just an investor, then for you it's just money. And plus, different approaches. You specifically need to buy real estate. That's one scenario.
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Even if you have the money, it will be one type of scheme. If you want to use a mortgage with a rental component, so you can live there—well, quality of life, living there right away—and execute the project, that's another
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story. If this is a new build for investment purposes, so to speak, to get the property in the future with a significant discount, that is yet another story. If, for example, you need additional returns or extra leverage, that's another story, where
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we might even consider if it makes sense to take out loans or not. That is a separate issue entirely, in terms of how to structure their repayment. Well, everything will depend on your goals and objectives. But I would say that,
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first and foremost, this is financial engineering. Financial engineering, where you say: I have goals, tasks, needs, and capabilities, and I want the market to adapt to me. In this case, the developers. So, I'm already saying they're sending options where the down
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payment is...I was already sent, you know, a down payment option of, say, 260,000. 263. Well, it was, "make a down payment of 263," and the payment is 923—not small, right, with an increase in the down payment. "We will
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adapt to you," and so on. Let's go. Oh, that's a dialogue now, because, well, why would I just rush to hand over my money, guys? No, and this is where I will start structuring the scheme.
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That’s why I say we make these 3D calculators, you know, depending on the situation and the task. How to build a plan so you can bring it to the developer and say: "Look, the payments here should be like this.""Here,
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accordingly, maybe a bit more.""And here, at the end of the period." Based on this, we immediately adjust which instruments, say, government bonds, should be used. These can be completely different approaches; they can be radically different depending on the
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strategy you’ve chosen. Radically different. Whether you just chose option fifty-four or thirty-eight, or are rebalancing, or, say, what your timeline is to potentially get a tax deduction, and so on and so forth. And when we get this big picture, you know,
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it’s like a roadmap for action, just a roadmap for action. Well, it's just that when it's, say, a community project, it's easier to do. And I'm interested in it. It's clear that we’ve been dealing with real estate for years. I find it interesting, I
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understand it very well, yes, but just head-on like that. We were talking about this yesterday too, like I say, here's 100 million, buy and sell real estate, give it a try. How much time would it take you? A hell of a lot. OFZ
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bonds. Well, if the market is illiquid, a day. If it's a normal, liquid day, five minutes. That’s the question.
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And what difference does it make to me? You know, it's like moving from one property to another. It’s the same sometimes with those OFZs, with all of them. Well, it's just that, I repeat, we have this ecosystem, systems, robots
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working, screeners tracking things, and so on. Because the main task now, and of course we're attaching AI to this too, is to maximize efficiency on risk-free instruments. So the question is, how does anti-mortgage, for instance, differ from basic trading?
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Well, in trading, you participate a lot , you trade, you can make money somewhere, or even on a trading account . There's an investment account, mine is very conservative. There's a trading one. The investment one, by the way, is
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outperforming the trading one. My trading account is on the NeuroInsider financial analyst, you can get access for 24 hours, or, well, thousands of people use it. In our news section, there's daily analysis on the trading account. Yes. Yes. There were some
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mishaps, whether on gas or something else. It fluctuates, yes, but my goals there are higher, you see? Well, whether I achieve them or not, that’s , you know, as it goes. As it goes, yes . So I say, we'll see at the end of the
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year. Last year there were fluctuations too, it wasn't simple either. It's clear, not just OFZs, but US stocks, futures, what don't we have there, right? And the investment one is very simple. There are simple rules, no leverage, long only, simple instruments
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, as I said, OFZs, currency, and palladium, that's it. Nothing else at all. Sometimes, as we joked, it popped out, when I said finally, it fell, now I re-entered, well, it might just stay there for the next future. Oh, so the
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movements there are very sluggish. Well , and you don't really want high returns anyway. So, look, anti-mortgage is a story that disciplines you very strictly. You can't do anything there that might offer, perhaps, even higher returns, but would come with greater
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risks. You cannot do that. I mean, you have to balance the system so that it remains very close to reality. That is, some micro-fluctuations, I would say, the only question will be how much you earn, but there definitely shouldn't be
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a question of how much you lose in trading or, well, say, in active investments. That is possible. There can be losses, there can be drawdowns, there can be various things. But when we tie ourselves to an anti-mortgage, that cannot be the case. It cannot be.
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There must be a strict calculation and a rigid system that you effectively follow over that time, right? Well, if you need, say, to buy an apartment, I don't know, twice as cheap or, like, for free entirely. That is also, in
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principle, possible, yes. Well, it's a question of what the starting capital is and so on. Everything is calculated, right? It is strict mathematics, rigorous calculation, discipline, choosing tools, algorithms, setting up robots. So, there can be no such free-for-all here, right? Well, let's
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go back, yes. Therefore, when they offer, say, some base payment, as I said, the initial installment here is great, I like the payment, I already ran it through calculators yesterday.
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Then the next question arises: aha, what is the down payment, what does this tie into, what does it not, what capital are you willing to commit to this, and what are you not. If the apartment price is, say, 30 million,
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yes, that's what they mention. Well, yes, if you use, say, 30 for this project, it's profitable. 30 right away . I mean, you have the money, let's say , but you don't want to give it away immediately, so you sort of pass it
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through the scheme. Well, yes, the discounting will be colossal. While the house is being built. Why pay it all at once? What is the point? Yes, yes, yes.
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Well, if it's less, 10 or five, yes, it also needs to be balanced. That's where everything needs to be set up and looked at. Aha. So, you also need to incorporate the anti-mortgage here, so to speak. And how will you pay yourself
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back? How will you pay yourself off, what kind of payment schedule is needed , and so on, right? But the very fact that interesting, cool offers are coming in from all sides, well, it's pouring in. I’ll also be traveling
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periodically, so we’ll record some reports on this topic there. I will study everything. You see, you don't need to—the main thing is, don't rush , you understand? No need to fuss or rush. Okay, I’ll repeat it for the
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thousandth time. Remember, what’s our project rule, what is it? Remember, it’s better to have money than a position. You understand? It’s the same here. As long as you have the money, everything is fine. The moment you get into this construction,
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that’s it, it’s over. And I repeat, some of our people have been using mortgages for a long time, renting, and doing it all. This is a story that a huge number of people have already been through. But we have 1,200 people in
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the bond project. I repeat, the point is that you might not even need this apartment at all. You’ll just take this model, stay in the bond project, and just add a mortgage to it to get what’s called a more complete scheme.
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Maybe someone else will need it, you understand? So there are truly many very subtle, very interesting points here. Yes. Yes. And one more point, as an example. Ah, well, there’s a calculator there already, it’s this thing, you know, it runs all the
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calculations, it counts everything— the difference with mortgages, non-mortgages, and all the payments, so everything is aligned in this account.
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We’ll tweak the UI, right, so there are reminders, everything, you know, from start to finish. And if we talk further about the project history, you know, about this real estate, I just started looking, well, I’m being sent different properties, and there’s
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also the secondary market. And, for example, there’s an expensive secondary market property, say, at Poklonnaya Gora in Moscow. It says right here: "Assignment from an individual, 10 million cheaper than from the developer." And you know, indeed, the property costs 10 million,
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they aren't cheap, it’s a premium story. The developer asks for 47, but here it’s 37. And the funniest thing is, see, here the down payment is, say, 12 million, and then, say, a payment of 200. But that’s a question of money,
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you understand? If someone needs it for that amount, such options exist too, you see? You buy it 10 million cheaper, and you have, relatively speaking, a completely different down payment, because you would have paid the same bank exactly that same down payment. So
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, you already have the initial setup with Onga and the installment plan. And there’s this second option, it’s a good location, I won’t argue with that, everything is beautiful, Poklonnaya Hill, and so on. I mean, I’m considering completely different
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options. I find it extremely interesting. I love it, especially, as I say, while you haven't handed over the money yet. There’s another one where you need to make a down payment of 7.5, monthly payments of 600,000, and it’s the same story, also a
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discount of about ten. So it’s priced at 34, I don't want to show the phone here. 34, while the developer has it at 44. And the terms are transferred to you. And you also, in principle, pay a 20%down payment as an option, but you
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also get a huge discount from the market. I repeat, guys, you must clearly understand that if you have knowledge that you need—not abstract knowledge, but concrete knowledge— abstract knowledge is useless, like people who hoard a bunch of books and
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such; I never did that. I always dive into a topic and then try to become an expert in it as much as possible, because that’s when I need the knowledge and skills today. I might start taking action tomorrow. I
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mentioned that back in 2008, when I had to have all those huge talks and negotiations with banks, and so on. We were talking about millions of dollars in restructuring, various legal matters . Late 2008. Because I understood that
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it would be a disaster. I talked about it once, how I flew in from America. I said: "That's it, this is going to be a total collapse." Even though Medvedev spoke and said, "We’ll get through it , we’ll manage." I said: "It’s
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going to be a total cluster." I started proactively with all the banks right then. They hadn't even—I mean, nobody had realized what was happening yet. I was the first one to start, the first of those guys. Here we cut, here we do
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this, how, what, where? Well, that’s exactly why I kind of slid through. So, what is the point? That when you need it—like that story back then—I got this, figuratively speaking, legal education in one day, everything concerning banking activities, how all
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those settlements, restructurings, and so on work. I had 12 so-called calls and meetings in a single day with lawyers, attorneys, legal experts, and bankers to understand how it all works.
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When I went to a meeting with one of the bank chairmen, I did have two lawyers waiting downstairs, just in case. But I told them: "Guys, stay put, because the moment you unleash the, so to speak, warriors, there will be
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lawyers on the other side too, and that will be a different story." It will be a different story. But for now, we had seemingly found some common contacts, so I was brought to the bank chairman, and we were sitting there talking. I
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once told this story. By the way, sometimes when they tell stories on videos they record, these, well, amateur bloggers, you know why they're amateurs? Because they talk about why you need to be poor, to look poor, they talk about wealth without having the
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slightest clue what it is. So, that was the example, that's why I remembered. So I'm sitting there, he's sitting there, I'm wearing a Breguet watch, and he's wearing a Breguet watch. Well, I saw it just by the edge, you know, from
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under the watch, imagine, from under the shirt sleeve, the cuff, that little notch on the Breguet. I said: "Is that a Breguet you've got?" He goes: "Well, yeah." And then it just becomes, you know, that guy-to-guy stuff. Oh,
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everyone takes theirs off to show them. Mine turned out to be even cooler, yeah . He says: "Where did you buy yours?"" And where did I buy mine?""Oh, and then it's all about who you know there." Well, these are funny stories, right,
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because there's no point in acting aggressive right from the start. And further, since I already understood the whole procedure a day in advance, what I could do, what they could do against me, and so on, and so on, and so on. By
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the way, I later recorded a course on bank procedures, yeah? Oh, that was such an interesting story. I mean, when you know what to do, you have a greater degree of freedom, you aren't afraid. I tell him: "Listen, look, right now I do
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this, you do that, then I do this, you do that.""Listen, in a year and a half we're meeting here again, is that right , and starting everything from scratch?
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" He says: "Well, generally, yes." I say: "Consider that it's already passed , let's reach an agreement." Yeah, there was a long story after that, of course. Even after reaching an agreement with the management board, they later explained to me that I still
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needed the credit officers to approve it, and others to approve it, and so on —there were a bunch of other schemes.
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But in the end, I got my terms, although the whole formal process took another six months; yet I got my terms, and the difference was huge in monetary terms, just gigantic, you wouldn’t believe it, almost double. Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying:
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when there is a need, your knowledge becomes practical experience, and it takes on something quite material and concrete. Abstract things have no meaning. Therefore, if I said something , he says, "Well, I don't know, I took this property for renovation, I built
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it from scratch," and I know exactly how much it brought me, when, and how much. I know everything down to the last decimal point. I know it down to the decimal. Do you understand? It’s the same here. Why do I enter into
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these specific projects myself? I want to carry out a couple of them. For me, this knowledge is concrete. It has a concrete material expression. It will be exactly the same for you. Concrete, not abstract, absolutely not abstract.
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And that is precisely why I calculate the specific money here. I say: "Hello, it’s 44 here, and you’re telling me something else." I’ll just go to Ivan , who probably bought it from you cheaper at some point. He needs money
Speaker A
right now. I’ll buy it 10 million cheaper, if I need to, with the same terms you had initially. So what? There are plenty of mortgage holders who got loans at 6 or 7%. And you can just as easily take over that deal right now.
Speaker A
There are tons of options. But if you don't have that knowledge and understanding, then you're just like, " Well, what can I do?""Well, they told me this and that, where else can I go?" "I guess I have to go and buy it."
Speaker A
Everyone says you have to buy it, otherwise they’ll take it away. This whole scheme is built on fear. There was a question in the comments: " Sergeevich, why do you think everything will collapse when the SVO ends?" Because it is all built solely on fear.
Speaker A
Solely on fear. That’s it. Nothing else. Nothing at all. It’s based on the inflation of money caused by the Central Bank; it’s some kind of counter-revolutionary activity. I can't call it anything else at this point. No one will convince me otherwise. At
Speaker A
first, I behaved more politely, so to speak, but the more I delve into it, the more I realize. I understand, well, well, well, it's, well, well, how should I put it, some things are highly contradictory, well, contradicting sound economic and financial logic.
Speaker A
That's it. Nobody is, well, really ready at any level to just ask three or four questions and say, what is the point. After all, I was a top manager, including in high-ranking government positions, and I have an economic
Speaker A
education. Tell me, what is the point? How were we able to defeat inflation with these actions, or, I don’t know, stabilize it? How? No way. No way. And without administrative influence, what they call macroprudential measures. I said 3 years ago that this situation
Speaker A
couldn't be resolved. Now they are trying to resolve it. Was it not clear before that? What, was it not clear? It was clear at the end of 2021. It was clear when they set those interest rates and started ramping everything up
Speaker A
. So, it's a scheme. So, so, no need to be offended. It’s just, you know, maybe envy is speaking in me, that I didn't participate in these schemes.
Speaker A
Well, maybe yes, envy is speaking, but if you look at it from an economic perspective, then it's, of course, complete nonsense. Therefore, when there is stability, that’s it, the hype is over, so the situation is stabilized, and so what? Where are you
Speaker A
running to? But why? What’s the rush? But why? If you don't create a rush, you won't overstimulate the limbic system. so that everyone. Are you also buying? Oh, yes, somewhere it’s already necessary. Oh, I wrote an article on this topic back in 2006 or
Speaker A
2007. Nothing has changed. Yes. Did you scoop everything up? Ah, well yes, okay . It's one thing, I say, if they were really handing out free money or some kind of handout, but now there's nothing. Neither the prices are a
Speaker A
bargain, nor is the mortgage a bargain, there's nothing, just fear. So, as a counterweight, I repeat, who said that by not just buying gold coins there, you won't end up in a better position?
Speaker A
As an example. If we need to preserve, yes, I don't even know how paradoxical it is, yes, I don't know, how they take those '38 bonds, where the coupon is higher, redemption is still at 100%, well, they will lower the rate even if
Speaker A
it's in 3 years. So, you see, what's the question? That you need to have a certain inner degree of freedom. One.
Speaker A
And the second is knowledge, from which this level of freedom, so to speak, is born. Because knowledge is power, right ? That is why I am simply showing as an example that there are a mass of options even here. Meaning, the option
Speaker A
is not just to take secondary housing, let's say, although there are some options where there might be a large discount, so that taking it even with a 17.7%mortgage, but with a good discount , and then paying off the second
Speaker A
mortgage yourself, you will still come out ahead. That is also possible. But again, with all the schemes that I am just showing now, it could be even more profitable, and then, if necessary, when rates drop, switch the mortgage,
Speaker A
having a large amount of equity that still earns a high rate. This is financial engineering. This should be very interesting for you. Personally, I find this very interesting, honestly speaking, yes. Therefore, these are some very basic, extremely simple
Speaker A
things. Extremely simple things. Again, I'm not even talking about, say, secondary housing, where I also have a mass of all these screenshots, where, well, everything is just much, much, much cheaper. Just much cheaper. But look, the thing is that...our task, uh,
Speaker A
naturally, is to make a screener, what is called, of the market, yes. To then show ready-made models. This is how an anti-mortgage differs, for example, from a project just for bonds. For bonds, there is a huge number of
Speaker A
participants, 1,200 people, we are concentrated on bonds. What a person will then do with this income, with the coupon, with everything else? That is everyone's choice. Everyone's choice.
Speaker A
Yes. If we are talking about an anti-mortgage, then this is a story that has specific investments.
Speaker A
Therefore, in principle, we say that this is an anti-mortgage. This is a project unto itself. The bank, specific investments, they are concrete, so you calculate exactly. This is what is called money for a specific goal, not just abstractly, right? Well, that is,
Speaker A
it could be a pension. A person says: " I need a pension, this much money." Okay, then a bond project, or, well, something else additional, hedging or metals. That's it, the person came up with it themselves, saying: "Well, just
Speaker A
some kind of money mass, a monetary model." Here we are tying ourselves to something very concrete and tangible, where, I repeat, we have, as it were, two opposing flows. One flow we create ourselves, the second is what we, so to
Speaker A
speak, want to take from there, from the developers, to squeeze out of them. Even a simple story. Let’s say it’s under construction for 3 or 4 years, for example. If you had taken a finished property, you would rent it
Speaker A
out at 4%per annum. Well, the average yield is 4%per annum. In this case, taking into account all these factors of using money, we get, well, about 15-16 percent. So then the question even arises: can you keep renting it
Speaker A
out like that? You see, it turns out we are getting rent from a property that doesn't even exist yet, just because we don't pay for it all at once. We are essentially securing its availability.
Speaker A
For us, it's an option or a futures contract that it will be handed over to us in the future once it's built. At this fixed price. Yes, it might go down or up in value, but you are effectively
Speaker A
renting it out right now through other financial instruments. Imagine how interesting it is to rent out an apartment that doesn't exist yet, that hasn't been built. How is that possible ? But when you suddenly learn and understand this, imagine how different
Speaker A
you become compared to everyone else. Beating the banks is just a total thrill. Just a total thrill. Getting that rush, that inner understanding that by using money, you are essentially already earning income, so to speak. Even from something that
Speaker A
isn't built yet; people rarely calculate like that. They just keep paying, paying, paying, overpaying a hell of a lot of money, just to get a tiny bit of money back later. We made an investment calculator and compared investment strategies seven years ago,
Speaker A
and it was already clear that it’s a mediocre idea if you just use mortgages —even with other rates, at these rates, I don’t even know what would have to happen, right? So even here, simple math shows that this is more
Speaker A
profitable. It’s simply more profitable. What to do with this property next? That’s for later, that will be the next story. It can also serve as collateral. You need it for life. Just for life. You have it left over, super. You simply implemented it
Speaker A
through a specific, what is called, financial mechanism. And furthermore, no one cancels the fact that it is the same property, the same unit, so to speak, that can serve as the same collateral. But again, very reliable financial instruments are needed here,
Speaker A
so this whole scheme is, of course, built 99%on OFZ (federal loan bonds). I repeat, everything else—stocks, bonds —all of that can be present. I mean, stocks, well, corporate ones, I don't touch them at all, I don't buy high-yield bonds because, maybe they
Speaker A
pay well, maybe it's fine, but I don't want to. And, by the way, write in the comments who is ready, I don't know, to build something using risky instruments . So, some kind of conservative portfolio like this. This is a
Speaker A
conservative story. I repeat, about the aggressive one. Well, I could throw a ton of topics at you now where you might be able to double your money in a month. Or lose it? Even in a month, or in a day. What difference does it make?
Speaker A
There’s leverage, whatever you want, you can do it in a day. And you nailed it, thank God. Or, you know, didn’t get lucky, right? Are you prepared to go that way? No. Well, that shouldn't be the case, really. Sure, many people
Speaker A
do, but the Jester archetype and the Caregiver archetype don't live well together. They still need to be linked with the Magician. Everything everyone is talking about now, yeah, linked with the Warrior, with discipline too.
Speaker A
Relying purely on the Jester, like, " we’ll just slide by." Well, some thousandth of a percent of people do slide by, and they get held up as an example, but the other 999 and so on.
Speaker A
That’s why all these endless pyramids , all these financial schemes, where people take out loans and are told: " You’ll get infinite returns here, multiply your money, without doing anything." That’s pure Jester.
Speaker A
They’re just getting scammed, pushed out of their Caregiver role, and that’s it. By the way, we are launching a separate project on financial archetypes, psychology, and investments to make it clear how this works. In this scheme here, what is
Speaker A
called "anti-mortgage," or "be your own bank," or specific investments, all archetypes are involved, because besides some financial or tangible result, you also need inner fulfillment . It should be interesting and enjoyable for you. Not from a position of "I must,""I am forced to,""I am
Speaker A
obligated." That’s just awful. That means you’re dragging it with you all the time. No. But when you say: "I am free, I can, I have the right." Do you understand? This is a story of possibilities, do you see? A story of
Speaker A
possibilities, not obligations. Therefore, you can use this scheme, or that scheme, or another. It will change you internally as well, besides helping you understand all these mechanisms.
Speaker A
Alright, my friends, I’m just, so to speak, continuing the topic, both of bonds and, accordingly, of the anti-mortgage. I just showed some options that are more or less okay. I repeat, I will go and take a look. Not
Speaker A
a lot is being sent over in parallel. One property, a second, a third, everywhere they say they're ready to talk here, ready to talk there, and those will be ready too. Well, believe me, there's just no need to rush. I
Speaker A
mean, you need to understand that, well , okay, if you've started this mechanism that I mentioned, this "be your own bank" thing, well, you say, " So what? My money is working, and that's it." By the way, it was exactly
Speaker A
like that many years ago, only in reverse, when I had already done a full renovation on my Basmannaya property.
Speaker A
By the way, we'll attach photos so it's clear what condition it was in for me.
Speaker A
I mean, I tore everything down right to the walls. There. Then you fix it up; I kept some for myself and rented some out. There. And I had Russian Railways offices all around me here. They came to me, well, I mean, since I was
Speaker A
dealing with real estate, I was testing the market, placing ads, and, well, setting some kind of top-tier figure.
Speaker A
People would come over to me. There was a moment when, two or three times, the Russian Railways people came to me after a year, yes, with lawyers, and they tried to pressure me for a discount. And there was also the issue
Speaker A
that the three-year holding period hadn't passed, and I didn't want to get hit with personal income tax. Well, you understand me, right? I was weighing all of this, looking at how things were , you know. And they say, "Well, you
Speaker A
keep posting it, like, you're not dropping the price, you're not selling. " I say, "Guys, understand me, look." At that time, well, I took the renovation head-on. It cost me about 32 million, probably. The exchange rate was still 23.5 at the beginning when I
Speaker A
got into it, right? And the dollar, yes , well, 1. 300, 1.4 million dollars, let's say, by those standards. That's including the renovation and everything . I say, it brings in about 500 a month in rent. Well, by those standards, yes,
Speaker A
there were dollars there. It was a good story, so to speak. I say, "Look, I'm averaging 18 percent per annum on my money." The annual growth averages 5-10 %. Tell me, is there any point for me to fuss? I remember talking to them
Speaker A
back then. I said, this isn't some country house, some damn country house, where you just spend money on it and so on. This is an asset. No, I love my house very much, but it's a cost center . A house is a cost center. You can't
Speaker A
consider it a financial asset, but it is definitely an asset for quality of life. Definitely. Yes. Yes. And I say, "Well, it's kind of a cost center." That's why back in the day, I say, certain residential-type properties. I
Speaker A
offloaded them during the crisis, even gave some to the banks. I understood that, well, it's a cost center. Meaning , in this case, as an asset, if you're not living in it, it's a questionable asset; the rent is only like two or
Speaker A
three percent, pennies, both then and now. I say, "This is an asset that yields well. It has its own growth potential. I'm definitely in no rush." You see? I'm definitely in no rush. As I joked back then, I said that, in the
Speaker A
end, commercial real estate would build me up again, I'm actually living it. Yes, yes, that worked. Rates were high, taxes were low, everything was great.
Speaker A
Yes, now it's the exact opposite story. Tell me to buy some commercial property to rent it out? I say, "Have you lost your minds?" Lost your minds. What? Oh, you've gone crazy. You'll just be exhausted here, simply exhausted. And
Speaker A
as for the warehouses and everything else they were talking about, the competition is growing so fast that, believe me, I study the entire market constantly at all these closed meetings and participate in various fund presentations. I look at it, and
Speaker A
sometimes I think, my God, all that just to get that 10-12 percent they talk about—the growth, revaluation, interest, all that nonsense. I say, federal loan bonds have probably spoiled me too much. Uh-huh. If not for them, well, I don't know, maybe I'd be
Speaker A
doing something too. So, I repeat, that was a story where I said, "Why should I rush? Consider it a life path, 18 years have passed, and I'm still not rushing.
Speaker A
" Believe me, this all dates back even before any of those educational programs, before everything. So, effectively, I did choose it for a real estate agency after all, right? So, there was no need to rush here either; it made sense. Now, it's the opposite
Speaker A
story. I mean, there are instruments that provide a good return. And someone asks, "Well, will this real estate, I don't know, stay at the same price, while the dollar rises, or gold rises?" Let's look at all the previous episodes
Speaker A
. I say, "Who is stopping you from hedging with gold or currency?" We have always talked about it, and we always do it. One doesn't contradict the other ; it actually complements it, you see?
Speaker A
It even adds to it. And this is a fundamental point: when you are in a community and you have certain frameworks of understanding—having changed your mindset—you will feel much more confident in this financial chaos of ours. Alright, my friends, for
Speaker A
those who find this interesting and useful, please let me know. Is it useful to you, yes? Or is it like, " what's the point?" Well, if it's " what's the point," you don't even need to watch it. Well, you can write, "
Speaker A
What's the point?" Is it the sea, where is that sea? Well, there are those kinds of comments too, right? Then I'll just be like this. Oh. Yes. If anyone finds this useful or interesting, write your ideas, comments, needs, and
Speaker A
suggestions. I'm very interested. This project is launching now; it interests me, and I'm living it too. Because, well, real estate is still a serious base asset, and it's interesting. It has always been interesting. Again, I'm not even talking about trades,
Speaker A
bankruptcies, or auctions, where there are also some properties. I was just looking at a property in the center on Ordynka, it was 50 million, and now I see the auction price is already down to 37. That’s a whole other story. So
Speaker A
, when you have cash or a mechanism, you will always find something. I’m not even mentioning rent; I’ll record that separately. Where are you? I still haven't made it there yet. Stoleshnikov Lane, right behind TSUM, the Bolshoi Theatre is there too. Well, the center,
Speaker A
I don't know, Detsky Mir, all of that. That's it. Well, the center of Moscow.
Speaker A
I mean, it's just a 2-minute walk to the Kremlin, right? Just the center. The center, a 200-square-meter apartment, or 140 meters for 200,000 rubles. An attic apartment. And when you realize you would need about 15 million in OFZs to get that, but it’s
Speaker A
being sold for 120 million, you also get a very interesting sense of aesthetic and financial satisfaction.
Speaker A
Because when a person rents out something that is worth 100 or 120 million for 200,000, that’s, damn, like 2%annual return. You think: "Oh boy," that really stepped on the sore spot of a huge number of owners of expensive properties right now. Yes, I
Speaker A
perfectly understand that if I were renting out my house, relatively speaking, I’d be getting, based on its current value, I don’t even know.
Speaker A
Well, also probably just a couple of percent, it seems to me, yeah, plus or minus, probably 2.5, right? Meaning, the more expensive the property is, the less you get of what is called capital return. But when you have it and you
Speaker A
understand the scheme, yeah, that’s a different story, which is why I mentioned two parallel projects. One is just primary market, just money into money, money into money, right? The second is a real story where you can actually both rent it out and launch a
Speaker A
project there at the same time, yeah. I mean, technically you can use this scheme indefinitely and build up capital in parallel. After all, our goal is simply to have capital that provides us with what is called passive income, this life. That is the goal.
Speaker A
And the actual asset value, what you trade it for, that’s a secondary question. So, once again, if it’s interesting. Go ahead and put two or three likes, write your comments there.
Speaker A
I mean, as I always say, if it’s interesting, go ahead and subscribe. If it’s absolutely not interesting, you’re in the wrong place, just unsubscribe. You say: "I actually came here for cattle farming, livestock, but here the math is different, it turns
Speaker A
out bulls and bears are about something else." Goodbye. Well, it just means you’re in the wrong place. Just go to the hunters or livestock farmers or somewhere else. I don’t know, maybe reindeer herders, yeah, where when they talk about elk, it means stop-loss, you
Speaker A
understand? You say: "Damn, and I thought, I’m generally about Chukotka here, right." Well, I’m joking, but the fact remains: if it’s totally not your thing and you disagree, saying: " No, I don’t like this unshaven Zmeev, just goodbye right away." Why watch and
Speaker A
waste your time? But if, on the contrary, you like everything, everything is good, then subscribe, do subscribe. Well, finally, just subscribe. Come on, let those numbers grow a bit more. If it continues to be really interesting, I’ll repeat it.
Speaker A
To start with, you can join our Telegram Open Chat, Max's open chat, if you're really interested. Connect to our specific project communities, like the bond group with 1,200 people, or the anti-mortgage project, which will be a large separate community. That's
Speaker A
it. There will be an in-person meeting in early October, where everything I'm telling you now will likely have already been implemented to some extent , and we'll be analyzing it. There will be participants and case studies there.
Speaker A
Well, it's real life, not something virtual. Should you look poor? Damn it, if you are poor, you look poor. Do you understand? It just bugs me sometimes when these videos tell you that since you grew up around people who are now
Speaker A
billionaires, you should look the part. I'll record a video on this topic sometime. If I take the commuter train, it's convenient for me. I’m not going to ride in a Bentley, wearing Brioni, or shoes like Testoni, Arteoli, or
Speaker A
Castangia. I mean, they say these strange words, telling you to wear Patek Philippes, Audemars Piguet, or something else. Why the hell would I even wear a watch, anyway? But if you go to the right place, you’ll have a
Speaker A
suit, a tie, proper shoes, and, well, a watch too. Everything will be right because it's appropriate. There's just no point, metaphorically speaking, in wearing a sheepskin coat to the beach.
Speaker A
And at the same time, walking around in swim trunks in the winter isn't a good idea either. So this whole thing about "looking poor" or "saving money" or " not saving money"—That’s all a bunch of, let me tell you,
Speaker A
guys. It's just, well, just total , yeah. Had to get that off my chest. Anyway, for those who are interested, I'll repeat: like and subscribe. Let's move on to the channels. Good luck and until our next bright meetings. M.
Topics:real estateproperty investmentmortgage risksAnti-Mortgage projectfinancial modelsdeveloper negotiationsinvestment strategycash leveragemarket conditionshousing market
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