Altcoins… We’ve Seen This Setup Before

Lark Davis analyzes altcoin market cycles, comparing current trends to historical bubbles and predicts potential gains ahead.

Key Takeaways

Current altcoin market shows signs of a significant breakout similar to past major cycles.
Accumulation phases offer better opportunities for life-changing gains than euphoric market tops.
Automated investing and regulated platforms can help manage risk and capitalize on market trends.
Historical cycles suggest a major market peak around 2028 with a subsequent bear market and final bull run.
Investors should continuously reassess their portfolios and be prepared for volatility.

What the video covers

Comparison of the current altcoin market setup to the .com bubble and 1990s rate hiking cycles.
Historical NASDAQ surge from 1250 to 4750 during aggressive rate hikes in late 1990s.
Prediction of a major market move around 2028 followed by a bear market and a final bull run before 2034.
Altcoin dominance is breaking out of a five-year downtrend, signaling potential growth.
Encouragement to evaluate altcoin portfolios and consider accumulation phases for better risk-reward.
Highlighting the importance of automated recurring buys and regulated platforms like Kraken for accumulation.
Noting the first green momentum bar in altcoin Bitcoin monthly charts since 2022 as a breakout signal.
Historical context of previous altcoin seasons, especially 2021 as the greatest altcoin season.
Warning that market conditions can change abruptly due to unforeseen events.
Speculation on upcoming aggressive uptrends in altcoins and the importance of cautious capital deployment.

Chapters

What historical market cycles does Lark Davis compare the current altcoin market to?

Lark Davis compares the current altcoin market setup to the .com bubble and the 1990s rate hiking cycles, highlighting similar patterns in market behavior during periods of rising interest rates.

What is the significance of the altcoin dominance breakout mentioned in the video?

The breakout from a five-year downtrend in altcoin dominance suggests a potential shift in market momentum, indicating that altcoins may experience significant price appreciation similar to previous peak periods like 2021.

What investment advice does Lark Davis provide regarding altcoins?

He advises investors to focus on accumulation phases rather than euphoric market tops, use automated recurring buys on regulated platforms like Kraken, and continuously reassess their portfolios to optimize risk-reward.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

Matthew Highland posted this. The .com bubble rates four and a half to 6 and a half percent. US 10-year 4 to 6.7 percent inflation 1.6 to 3.6 percent. Very interesting. The NASDAQ, this is from mid-98 based on this sort of idea, 2028 top right about two years left from

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the time that these things start moving around. The yields absolutely went nuts. Okay, yields started around 4 percent and they surged all the way up to 6.7 percent.

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It was the end of the world and yet the market just kept going up. The rates in the 90s were a very interesting picture because we had a huge rate hiking cycle, right, and market nominally went up during that. So as the 94 to 95 market

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went up very, very slightly during that period. Then we got some rate cuts. Market absolutely ripped. We had rates go sideways. Does this sound familiar?

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Because this is kind of what's happened recently. This was times a circle, guys. Anyway, okay. We had the final rate cuts here. The market absolutely exploded and then they started hiking rates again. In fact, they had an aggressive rate hiking

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cycle where we went from about 4 percent to six and a half percent rates in a very short amount of time in just two years. From mid-98 until 2000, about two years.

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During that time, the NASDAQ absolutely went effing nuts. It went from, uh, what do we have here, about let's just say 1250 up to 4750. What? It was a crazy time, man. It was a crazy time. An absolute blowoff for the 25-year cycle

Speaker A

after which we had an eight to nine year bear market and the new cycle began.

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Guess what? If we go back and look at those 25-year cycles, 25-year cycle followed by an 8 to 10 year bear market, that puts a final peak around 2034 actually, which is very interesting.

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But 2028 could be a major, major move where we see everybody literally thinks it over. We get a bear market but not the bear market that lasts 10 years but a kind of standard run-of-the-mill bear market. AI fears would ever start to

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dominate. And then we have one final glorious bull market before the 2034 10-year reckoning, the new great depression. AI takes over, millions and millions of people lose their jobs, pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth, all that fun kind of stuff. Okay. But the

Speaker A

current situation would dictate that perhaps we have two nice years ahead of us based on those charts right there.

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Okay. Got some other here share for you. Drew Drew, I like, I like the vibes, man.

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2020 was a test run. Altcoin season lock in. Yes. Yes. Those are the vibes we need. We need more vibes like that.

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Cryptoloica posted this. This is altcoin dominance. Said you waited 5 years for alt seas. You might miss it waiting for confirmation. 2021 altcoin dominance peak 2024. All the excitement at the end of 2024 and that was the best that

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altcoin dominance did. Pathetic. Now what? We are breaking out of a five-year downtrend. Breaking out. It's not going to be immediate, but if we get back up to those kind of 2021-like peaks, this is the others chart. This is all the

Speaker A

coins outside the top 10. If we get back up to the kind of peak that we had in 2021, oh man, so much money is going to be made in altcoins. In fact, so much money made even Cardano holders going to

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make money. They won't sell because they've got charitable investments in the future of the world, whatever.

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But even those guys will see their coins go up in price. Jokes. I just, you know, I can't help myself, guys. I got to do it. But this is a very, very important chart I think to keep an eye on because

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what this is showing is that for the first time in five years we have an actual shift in the tide underway.

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Doesn't mean that it holds. Is it a guarantee? Nothing's ever guaranteed in investing, man. That's just the simple reality. But it is very constructive. And again, if you're allocating capital into the markets now, you still have a lot of

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upside potential ahead of you. Things could always be derailed, you never know, right? That's the way the world works. Nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody can see if, you know, I don't know, someone's gonna drop a nuke somewhere.

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That's, that's be bad for markets, let me tell you that. But who knows, right? If the charts, which we try to look at the data in front of us. If the charts give us any indication, then we have a lot of

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upside left for altcoins in particular. So, buying today or for the next, let's say, two or three months probably are going to be very good times. If you bought over the last six months, you're going to be doing, you're probably

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already doing okay depending on what you bought. Some coins have barely moved and you're sitting in these coins that barely moved despite the fact that over the last 6 months we've had or last three months particularly we've had a

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lot of coins move in a very, very significant way. Zcash and Near and many others. If your coin's not up significantly in the last 3 months, like what the hell are you holding, man? Re-evaluate yourself perhaps, right? Not

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financial advice but honestly have a hard look at your portfolio and say why am I still holding this coin and if I could buy this coin today would I or am I just bag holding anyway there will come a time when the risk-reward of

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buying these coins is going to be terrible. I think the risk reward of buying these coins right now is still very attractive, personally, which is why I've allocated capital to some of these things. Look, life-changing money isn't made during the euphoric market

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tops. It's made right now during the accumulation phases. By the time retail's panic buying green candles, the real gains are gone. Smart money, what do they do? They automate their buys today.

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And Kraken is the ultimate US regulated home base to do it. Available in the UK, Australia, Canada, really most major jurisdictions. You get spot crypto, over 11,000 commission-free US stocks and ETFs, and automated recurring buys, all under one single roof, plus options

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trading and prop trading, all that fun kind of stuff. You can set up an automatic weekly DCA, let it accumulate in the background, and earn yield on your idle balances while you sleep. No casino BS, no half-baked app, pure

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institutional grade execution right now. Sign up exclusively with the link down below. And when you trade $100 or more, which is super easy to do, you get $10 in free Bitcoin deposited straight into your account. That's pretty cool. The

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accumulation window is closing. It won't last forever. So, click the link, claim your free Bitcoin and turn on your wealth engine today. Rand Crypto posted this. Everyone wants to buy altcoins when the trend is confirmed. Well, guess what? The altcoin Bitcoin monthly chart,

Speaker A

the first green momentum bar since 2022, man. And by the way, the 2022 bar was the end of the cycle. So if we talk about the first breakout bar, we haven't had a breakout bar since 2020. Again, a

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time of historical downturn in the altcoin markets in the ISM PMI for manufacturing, copper gold ratio, all that kind of stuff. But all this stuff's turning around at the exact same time.

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So if we go back to the last time we had an actual breakout on the others BTC one month charts, guess what? You got to go all the way back to 2020, mid-2020, and things didn't immediately go to the

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moon. We had some nice impulses. We had some big drawbacks. That's normal. But eventually, it was one of the greatest altcoin seasons in history. In fact, the greatest altcoin season in history. 2017 was great, too. But nothing like 2021.

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Not saying we have to have an exact repeat of that situation. We had very unique financial conditions and global conditions. They're very stuck in their houses getting stimulus checks and gambling on dog coins. But okay, we have

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a situation now where we have the first green candle in years, first breakout on this chart in six years. I don't feel like fading that personally. Just going to throw that out there. Psychedelic posted this one. Absolutely massive moves

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are building for altcoins. It won't happen overnight, but the path is towards it is no.

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bottom. Three months ago, I said he was aggressively positioning the mob. We're only focused on low. We're not saying all this to mate to rub myself off.

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Oh boy. The altcoin market is one of the biggest clues that we were mid signal.

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They've not run properly since 21. The others BTC is about to break off of its bottom zone and begin its next major extremely aggressive uptrend. The moves we're seeing from alts here is literally nothing compared to what's coming over

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the next 12 to 18 months. Again, if history is any indicator and look, past performance does not equate to future results. Just because something happened before doesn't mean it has to happen again. But we have crypto today is 10

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times better than it was in 2020 and 2021. That's straight up, man. It's never been easier to buy crypto. We have stuff like the FOMO app. We have regulations. You know, you can now trade perpetual swaps legally in America, you

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know, with Koshi or someone like that. It's great. It's happening. We have real world assets coming on chain. Even NFTs are starting to get attention to gigs.

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We're doing new things with them. Meme coins are getting new attention because we're doing new things with them and so on so forth. We have new financial primitives being launched. We have DeFi protocols that are stronger than ever.

Speaker A

Things are looking generally pretty positive. Hopefully we don't get fooled again. Black Rockck's just sitting there watching this video like, "Yes, Lark.

Speaker A

Yes, yes, yes, yes. Deploy the rest of your capital. Buy more and then rug it all. Rug it all, man. Everything to zero. Zero." That's always possibility, of course. But I, as a speculator in these markets, as an allocator of

Speaker A

capital to these markets, think that it's a very good time to be paying attention to all coins. There you go.

Topics:altcoinscryptocurrencymarket cyclesNASDAQrate hikesaltcoin dominanceinvestment strategycrypto accumulationLark Daviscrypto market analysis

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