Speaker A
He is back. This is Matio Kanti. He's a former market maker of seven years and chief investment officer at SQR Capital, a quantitative hedge fund. Last time, he showed the world a VWAP strategy he called the golden ticket because
Matteo Conti reveals three institutional-grade algorithmic strategies to pass prop firm challenges with high success rates, live on chart.
Key Takeaways
- Using multiple low-correlation strategies simultaneously increases chances of passing prop firm challenges.
- Algorithmic and automated trading provide significant advantages over discretionary manual trading in prop firm environments.
- Each strategy is designed around the core objective of reaching profit targets before hitting drawdown limits.
- Institutional-grade trading knowledge can be adapted and shared to benefit retail traders aiming for prop firm funding.
- Passing the challenge and managing the funded phase require different strategic approaches.
What the video covers
- Matteo Conti, ex-market maker and hedge fund CIO, presents three algorithmic trading strategies designed specifically to pass prop firm challenges.
- These strategies aim to hit profit targets before maximum drawdown and have low correlation to diversify risk.
- Running all three strategies simultaneously improves the probability of passing compared to relying on a single strategy.
- The video includes detailed step-by-step explanations of each strategy’s hypothesis, entry and exit rules, and position sizing.
- Conti demonstrates the strategies live on chart with historical trades and equity curves to validate out-of-sample performance.
- He discusses the advantage of automation and algorithmic execution over manual trading for these complex strategies.
- The strategies are designed for the challenge phase; adapting them for the funded phase requires different optimization.
- Conti shares his motivation for helping retail traders by providing institutional-grade knowledge and approaches.
- The video covers practical aspects like optimal contract sizing, average time to pass challenges, and risk management.
- A discussion on the limitations and resistance from prop firms towards automated trading is also included.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction to Matteo Conti and previous VWAP strategy
- 03:59Motivation and background on prop firm trading
- 08:09Overview of three new strategies and automation benefits
- 12:42Detailed explanation of Vault Break strategy
- 17:51Entry and exit rules with position sizing
- 22:20Live chart demonstration and historical performance
- 27:50Discussion on manual vs automated trading complexities
- 32:17Combining strategies and final thoughts on prop firm challenges
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
historically, running it produced up to a 93.6% probability of passing a prop firm challenge. Now, months later, Matio is back. And this time, he didn't bring just a better strategy. He brought three of them. Last time I showed you one
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strategy. Today, I want to bring it to the next level, bringing you three strategies that have been designed specifically for prop firm challenges to maximize the probabilities of passing a prop firm challenge.
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Okay. And one thing that we noticed is that having three strategies running simultaneously rather than just relying on one
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does improve the probabilities of passing a prop firm challenge rather than just running one. And once you have it encoded, obviously, all you need to do is just connect it to your prop, just press one button, and now these
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strategies are trading live. But Matio went much further. He reverse engineered the prop firm challenge itself, designing each strategy around one objective: hit the profit target before the maximum drawdown hits. But what surprises me most is these strategies have less than 0.25
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correlation between them, meaning all three strategies can attack the same challenge with separate edges.
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Like the optimal sizing for these strategies is around five micro for each one of them.
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So, with an average time to pass of approximately five trading days. So basically, you set them up if you only run one challenge and for five trading days just let them trade.
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Yeah, that's it. In this episode, Matio gives away all three strategies step by step, including the exact entries, exits, risk rules, and logic behind each one. Then he pulls up the code, historical trades, and equity curves live on the chart to show
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us whether they actually held up out of sample. And by the end, he reveals exactly how he'd combine and even automate all three to attack a prop firm challenge himself. Nothing in this video is financial advice. We're here to study
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how one of the most sophisticated traders we've ever interviewed actually executes. Now, let's see if the golden ticket has competition.
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Matio, you're an ex-market maker of seven years, currently a hedge fund manager, and not an influencer. There's no conceivable reason that you would have to be here today. You don't have a brand to promote as far as I know. So, why
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exactly did you want to meet me here for this interview?
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Thank you so much, Brenda. I have many enemies in this industry but very few prop firms that would be willing to give me a platform to talk
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about trading in general and prop firm trading specifically, given the fact that now it's so popular among retail traders. And after our first interview, seeing the response of the people, seeing how
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the people were welcoming a new perspective towards trading, as I had the chance to fly over here in Dubai to meet you and have this goal, I was like, let's do it.
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Mhm. So you say prop firms don't give you a voice then, like you said.
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Yeah, there are many prop firms that are very much against what I'm doing, especially online, because I do promote a lot of algorithmic and automated trading, and every single one of the prop firms I talk with tries to
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block traders from trading with that methodology and always hide it on the back of "because we want to have real traders that trade discretionary or manually because it's the person that is behind." But that's a
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I always see it's a little bit of an excuse because clearly we all know that the vast majority of traders, if they automate their execution, they do get an advantage against or over prop firms. And after I got invited by you for
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the first talk, we had a talk where you were so open with me, and we started discussing as a potential follow-up, it was like, yeah, let's meet again and let's talk more about this.
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Yeah. So why do you create algorithmic strategies that work exclusively for prop traders?
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Yeah, this journey of being open towards retail traders about an institutional-grade approach towards trading obviously started around one year ago, and over this year, so many
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of the people that I follow, they've been asking me questions. They were over and over asking, "But how would you trade a prop firm as an institutional trader?" So I received that question so often that I started creating some
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studies, some business cases around what is the approach that I, me personally, would use to pass these specific challenges to get funded and eventually get payouts out of it.
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And why do you want to help these retail traders? You already have your own thing going with ex-market making, hedge fund managing. So what in you wants to help retail traders and why?
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Yeah, because I think I'm in an extremely privileged position to get the knowledge that I have today. I had to go to university for five years, working my ass off to get inside that trading floor, working on a trading floor
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for many years, and not every single person has this privilege. So everything I bring on the table online, since I started talking about it, was around what I wish I knew when I was 17 about real trading, how
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institutional traders actually operate, what is the mentality, the approach behind it. So what do you plan exactly to show me today?
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Well, last time I showed you one strategy. Today, I want to bring it to the next level, bringing you three strategies that have been designed specifically for prop firm challenges to maximize the probabilities of passing a prop firm
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challenge. Okay. What is interesting about this approach is that you might be able to trade one strategy even manually if you just follow the rule set. But we will see that as we pile up three strategies
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together, trying to trade it manually is getting quite complex, and we can see how we can leverage the computing power of our machine to take advantage of that and how that can give an advantage to the trader.
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Okay. Excellent. And then do these also carry over to the funded phase, these strategies?
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That's a whole different conversation because obviously when we design strategies for maximizing the probabilities of passing, we are solving one specific problem: how
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do we reach the target before touching the maximal drawdown? On the other end, in the funded phase,
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we need to design the strategies or adapt these strategies to maximize the amount that we can get paid out from the single funded account.
Speaker A
Okay. Excellent. Well, then I'm excited to get started. If you're ready to show me the first strategy, Matio, let's go.
Speaker A
Excellent. So, Matio, walk me through step by step the three strategies you specifically created to pass prop firm challenges, trade prop firms at an institutional-grade level.
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So, the first one that I want to talk about is what I call the vault break.
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So, number one, vault break. And for every single one of the strategies, we're going through the three most important points that every single institutional-grade strategy needs to have.
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The first thing is a reason why, the hypothesis on why this strategy is supposed to make us money. Then we will move to which are the entry conditions and finally the exits.
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So all the exit conditions, when do we close our position? For all of them, there is another element that is extremely important when we go live trading it, which is position sizing, but for explanation purposes, we will always keep all of them with a fixed
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position size of one contract. The vault break is designed specifically on ENQ, so NASDAQ 100 mini futures. We're going to use a time frame of 30 minutes, and specifically, this one is a long strategy. The reason why I created
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this strategy was because I wanted to take advantage.
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So 1987 is the first paper that is discussing this noise area and it is a very simple concept because at midnight central time we're going to check where the session open. So, what is the price of NQ at
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midnight central time? And then we're going to take the average true range over the past 15 sessions.
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15. Okay. 15 bars on the 30 minute. No, no, no. Of the past 15 sessions. So we look back over the past 15 days and we estimate what is the average true range of all these sessions. So the
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average of the ATR for the past 15 sessions. The average the average ATR itself.
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Exactly. Exactly. So like a moving average of ATR. Exactly. And this one is important because give us an estimate of the volatility of the market over the recent period. these uh past uh uh 15 days which is around three trading
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weeks. Okay. Then we only take the 30% of it and we add to the opening session price.
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Let's call it opening session price. So why specifically 30% Matia? because this one has been optimized in sample over more than three years and this 30% was was optimally uh worked both in sample and out of sample. We tried we need to find
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a compromise between um the level of the ATR that you keep in consideration and the trade frequency because obviously the larger you use like if you use a full ATR you're going to have less trades in on the trend
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using a 30% we found that was the optimal level tool for this specific uh strategy and this one is giving us what I for the noise up barrier.
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Then from obviously midnight we just track the price and from 10 central time. So 10:00 a.m. Central time if the price breaks this range. So, closes above the uh noise up.
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Mhm. We're going to open a long position. Mhm. If the price is both above the noise up and above the VWOP of the instrument.
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So basically like the noise up. So this noise barrier tries to filter out if there is a true directional push of the instrument and the VWOP justifies the clear direction. So like the clear trading activity underneath of of the
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movement of the instrument. Got it. So if we put them all down in our entry note, we need to have one the price above the noise up barrier. We need to have the price above the VWOP of that session and we can open this
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position only between 10 central time. So time is between 10 central time and 1430 central time. So this one is only when we can open the position. So 14 30 central target.
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So 4 and a half hour window. Exactly. Okay. If we get this uh confirmation where the price is above the noise uh barrier and above the VWOP, we can open up to three trades in the same session. So we take
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advantage of the fact that we got a clear signal and we take try to maximize the profitability of this drift.
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Mhm. Okay. So max three trace. And to be clear the trigger is on this candle that closes above the noise up.
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Yeah. Okay. At the close. at the close like we open the position at the next uh at the open of the following bar that closed above the noise and above the VWOP price where the VWOP we discussed in the
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previous uh um conversation that we had is the weighted volume weighted average price so it's a reference price where the largest amount of money exchanged hands right so then uh one quick question Matio this level will stay static.
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Correct. ATR 30%. Yeah. Uh this would actually change throughout the day, but you're saying to mark the level at the open and just leave it, right?
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100%. We mark it at midnight. We have a look of which was the ATR of the past 15 sessions from midnight to the end of the of the trading day. Mhm. So, um 5 um 5:00 p.m. And at that point, 5:00 p.m.
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Eastern time, so 400 p.m. Central time. And at that point, we get the average of that ATR of those past 15. So, basically, we have this level set already at midnight as it starts. Uh and and you said three trades per
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session. Per session inside of this 10 to 14. Exactly. So are you saying if price comes back under and then closes above again that's another trade after like we have like our exit conditions is going to be classic take
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profit. Ah yes. Okay. So take profit we're going to have it at $800. So it's going to be fixed if we're trading. Thank you. Stop loss $1,500.
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And if we don't hit the tick profit nor the stop loss, we're going to exit at 14:30 central time. So when the window closes, we close the position. Let's say we hit a takerit, but the con conditions are
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still in place. We're still above the noise barrier. Price is still above the VWOP. We trigger another trade.
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Got it. That one hits stop loss, but we are still above the um noise barrier and we are still above the VWOP, we trigger an additional trade. Got it.
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And maximum we do it three times a day. No more than that. And all these parameters have been uh developed in sample, validated in sample, optimized in sample. So like trying to understand which was like uh the optimum maximum
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amount of trades and this one is the result of it and Matio then so for someone who trades this strategy this strategy it looks like they could expect a higher win rate because the RR is about 1 to.5 correct
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correct okay so what win rate does this usually look like yeah this is one of the key points uh for propform trading The key is having a high win rate. And that's why this one is a consequence of this goal. Like
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having strategies with a lower reward to risk ratio maximize the win rate of that strategy.
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Got it. That's why it is specifically designed for this purpose or the ge the geometry of this strategy.
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as this particular shape for this specific reason. We want to have a high win rate if we're applying this on a proirm environment. Got it. And is there anything then that would completely invalidate this setup outside of the
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rules that you have here? What do you mean? Such as don't trade this when the Fed is speaking or you know what I mean?
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No, no. All the rules have been laid out here. Yeah. So like if this one like it's not that it trades every day because again we added this noise filter for this specific reason. We want that we have a clear drift that goes beyond
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this uh this uh barrier and needs to be supported by the trading activity of that specific session and we use the VW for that one. If we do see that there is buying activity which is pushing the price and is going to trigger a heavy
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drift of the of the instrument then we take advantage of that no matter which are the reasons or or behind of that specific drift.
Speaker A
Excellent. And you'll show tests and stuff later. 100%. Later we're going to take all of these seeing how it looks like on the laptop and we can have a look at the historical results as well that we have.
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Excellent. Let's move to the second one. Okay. Any other question on this? No, I don't think so. Position size is one contract. Correct.
Speaker A
Yeah, I think it's crystal clear. Second strategy. This one is very similar to the first strategy that we discussed together in our course. It is like still call VWOP pullback but in this case we have an ADX gate trend filter.
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Yes sir. Yeah. ADX stands for average directional uh index. Mhm. And they they actually like the creator of the ADX is the same creator of the RSI.
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Um Jesus, he I love this guy. Wells Wilder Jr. is his name. Wells Wilder Jr.
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He did RSI, ADX, and ATR. And ATR. Correct. You start him, of course. Yeah.
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Yeah. Yeah. It's like it's like which by the way, even the RSI is like one of the indicators that I like. Obviously ATR is a very valuable indicator like to estimate the volatility just like we used in the previous way. Yeah, the the
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same ADX is great because the ADX what it does it helps you to identifying the magnitude of the trend doesn't tell you anything about the direction of the trend but like it tells you how strong is the is the is the trend currently
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everything he developed during his time RSI ADX ATR was extremely you could almost think of it like a layman's take like it it it was sophisticated for the time and then obviously over the next 40 years now you know in academia they
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won't look at ADX to measure a trend absolutely not they'll look at autocorrelation and other% but at the time he was a pioneer for this stuff and still like on a practical side like the usage of this uh this uh uh
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let's call them technical indicators like is it's widely used like people when people think about technical analysis they still think about charts drawing. Yeah.
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Okay. And but now like today in 2026 is a completely different game in a way that you get you can get all even this sort of indicator like I know I have friends once for major hedge funds that
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what they do is taking this type of tech indicators feed it to the blackbox and the blackbox models trading strategy on the back of it.
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Yeah. So still like is simple concept they still apply in practice. Obviously the way you apply it is can differ from case to case but like are so intuitive and when you find something that actually you can use and you can use it even on a
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retail level. Yeah. And uh just like we did it with strategy number one, we need a reason why. So the hypothesis on why this strategy works we have the entry entry conditions and exit conditions just like before position sizing we will
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use one contract. This one specifically again in Q we're going to use a one minute time frame and still it is a long structure on the one minute.
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Yeah. Mhm. This is this is uh very granular. Okay. Let's say like that. What we want to take advantage with this one is taking advantage of the micro structure of the market. And just like we discussed in the in our first talk,
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right, the VWOP is uh um obviously volume weighted average price and all the institutional traders or the vast majority of the institutional trades are executed using VWOP algorithms. So try in trying to benchmark your trades to the VWOP of the instrument.
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So when the price approaches around the VWOP, there is going to be an intense trading activity across all these algos interacting. And if there is a pull back towards the VWAP price, there can be like if there is a positive drift in the
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market could be a very good entry point to take advantage of the push that these algorithms are going to um apply to the instrument. Let's have a look how can look on a on a chart.
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The very first thing that we keep an eye on in this strategy is an opening range.
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So from 8:30 central time, market opens at 9:30 Eastern time. That's why 8:30 central time and 9 we record the opening range.
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say like this. So we have our opening range right here. Mhm. Then let's say that the price decreases and then touches back or breaks the opening range.
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We don't open the trade as it breaks the opening range, but we wait for the price to touch back the VWOP.
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Okay. Okay. So to pull back to VW. Exactly. This one is the pullback component.
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Okay. If the price closes back above or one minute bar closes back above the VWOP.
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Mhm. And at that point in time, ADX exactly the ADX is above 20 classic and and is not increasing. Let's say it's either flat or decreasing meaning that we are losing the moment.
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So really it can't be increasing. Yeah, cannot be increasing meaning we are losing the momentum on the on the um on the trend at that point we open the long position.
Speaker A
I see. So this one is a little more sophisticated then. So you had mentioned just so we go step by step for the audience you had mentioned this pullback at the beginning but I don't think this really matters right it's more so we're
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looking for price to close above the opening range high right no we just want we just the the the close above the opening range high is some sort of confirmation that might be buying activity that is driving the
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price towards that direction. Okay. Then you wait for the pull back towards the VWOP.
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Mhm. And if there is the pullback but the price the buying activity of this alos start pushing the price back above the VWOP. So we have the close above the VWOP and the ADX. Usually when you have something like this, you have the
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pullback that is uh the negative trend of the pullback, let's call it like that, is decreasing and that's why you have the ADX losing ground.
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So it's either unchanged or decreasing. At that point, you open the long position. Got it. So then let me know if I understand it clearly, Matio.
Speaker A
Yes, sir. Close above opening range high. Yeah, that's step one. Step one, close below VWOP.
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Touches the VWOP. Just can touch it. That's all. Let's Let's write them down. Yeah. Okay.
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So, we have one bar that close above the opening range. Okay. This one is our gate number one. It like arms the strategy.
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Okay. The second one is the price touches the VWOP. Third, the price closes above the VWOP.
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and fourth ADX is above 20 and not increasing. Got it. So then my question would be from the previous bar from from the previous bar. So all that needs to happen then for ADX is it is not higher than the previous bar's
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measurement. Correct. That's all. But what if if it was increasing then flat for a bar and now you know what I mean how it's just starting it slope downward that's still fine that like that's still fine like let's say at this very same bar the
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reason like the ADX is increasing we wait for the ATX to be either unchanged or decreasing and then we open. So basically once we reach the point that we close above the VWOP Mhm.
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if the only conditions missing is the DX, we wait for the condition to the DX to be satisfied to open the position.
Speaker A
Okay, that's important to unpack before we do though. Here on condition two and three, this could technically happen in one candle. Is that right? Where one candle could wick below VWOP to touch it but then close above it. Right. Yes,
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sir. And if this condition is also met ADX it's going to open at the opening of the following bar.
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Yeah. So yeah. So then one, two, and three could all happen on one candle.
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Okay. Got it. Yes, sir. Got it. And um and if all three of these are true, but ADX is increasing and above 20, we wait till it's not increasing.
Speaker A
Correct. And then can take the trade. Yes, sir. And or let's say all these three are true but ADX is less than 20. If it becomes greater than 20 greater than 20 then stops increasing. Do you still take
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that? Yes sir. Okay. Got it. Yeah. and exit conditions to complete the strategy is going to be the takerit at the high of the past five bars.
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Mhm. And stop loss at the low of the past 20. That's it. We we exit if neither of the two get satisfied, we exit at 3:55.
Speaker A
Got it. Central time. So then, Matio, this this is definitely an interesting exit because in theory it this should still produce a higher win rate in most in instances since you're looking at the closer, more immediate five bar high and a 20 bar
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low. But um you know for example the actual candle that you enter on at the close so the open of the next bar that could have also produced the highest high over five bars.
Speaker A
Yeah. So you're actually taking profit at the high of the candle that gave you the entry condition.
Speaker A
Yeah. Got it. 100%. like and that one is like something that you need to keep in consideration but like by design it's very hard that that one takes place like I think we look at the statistics it only takes place like less than 5% of
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the times very so like yeah it doesn't uh doesn't u break the strategy let's say like that should you move to the number three I would love to this one's really interesting I want to see the test for
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this when we get So let's jump straight into the last one. Yep. So strategy number three.
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This one is what I call the overnight bias opening range breakout. So we're going to use a time frame of 15 minutes again. Thank you.
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And this one has been designed because the previous one or the past two strategies are long only. This one is a long short strategy. Okay.
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As always, we need hypothesis on why should work. Entry exit position sizing. Still one contract. The beauty of this one is that the why is related with the overnight drift or better during the night you might have this price discovery which we
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start recording the range or overnight from like 11 p.m. Central time to 8:30 central time when market open. And why these times specifically?
Speaker A
It is to monitor where is like the price going like what is like the discover the price of participants that have access to the market before actually opens.
Speaker A
Got it. But needs to be purely on during the overnight session in US. Got it. After the market opens, we're going to track the opening range of the f first 15 minutes bar. So from 8:30 to 8:45 central time.
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This one is going to be our let's say it's right here. Let's mark it with a red.
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This one is going to be our opening range. The particular part of this strategy is that if the price at 8:30 when it opens is on the top/3.
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So one/3. So the top one/ird we're going to have a bias long. So in a way that like the price ended up when the market open on the top um 33% of the range.
Speaker A
Okay. So the overnight range if the open is in the top third of the overnight range we are going to have only long positions. Got it. We're going to open purely long positions. If it's going to be on the bottom
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one/ird. So let's say the this is let's assume that the price from here you know like reach up there then like close down in the bottom one/3 at that point is going to be our let's call it the short bias. Got it? So up here we
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have a long bias and in the bottom uh 33% of the range is going to be a short if it's in the middle 33 no trade.
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No trade. Got it. You you are so so on point. I love it. And uh yes no trade because means that the price didn't really we try to use it as a gate to understand like uh where like the buying or selling activity is
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really pushing the price. Got it. Before we we actually start trading in regular trading hours.
Speaker A
Got it. after like we have the range all we are waiting for is that the price breaks this range. So if we have a break of the opening range we're going to be long. Got it?
Speaker A
Similarly down here it's going to be exactly the opposite. Let's say we have this price activity. This one is going to be opening range if the price breaks lower than the just beneath.
Speaker A
Yeah, it's a short. It's a short. Got a couple questions. Shoot. So price could open in the top third, but let's say during this opening range 15 minutes, it dips beneath or even closes back within the middle third.
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Is this still an eligible long? Yeah, we keep it as allegible like uh once once we have the bias let's go if it breaks the upper bound of the opening range long uh breaks lower bound of the opening range short however we still
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need to have an ADX base above 20 really so ADX above 20 on that candle that breaks above the opening range high and closes above. So you get in at the open of the next candle.
Speaker A
Yes, sir. Same with short then. Yes sir. Above 20 increasing flat, decreasing, doesn't matter.
Speaker A
Above 20. Above 20. That's it. This is just purely like we want to have a trend.
Speaker A
Mhm. That again we don't have direction on the ADX but the direction is given by the side where we are in.
Speaker A
Got it. So if it breaks and it's above 20, most likely there is a negative trend and then we take advantage of that. If it's below 20, we don't open it.
Speaker A
To be clear, this is all automated. 100% automated. Then for anyone that goes in with discretion, just to be clear, if price closes right, let's say at the upper boundary, Yeah. No, take a take away from that top 33%.
Speaker A
Yeah. We don't open. We don't open. Yeah. Just so they know the discretionary needs to be needs to be within the top third or bottom third.
Speaker A
Otherwise, we don't have um bias. And is this one trade per day? It is one trade per day.
Speaker A
Got it. So again, let's formalize it as we did before. Why price discovery overnight gives direction? If we have the break, that's just to strengthen our case. We go long or short.
Speaker A
Entry conditions again. If it's top one/3, we have long, bottom one/3, we have short. If it breaks opening range and ADX above 20, we either go long or short based based on the conditions.
Speaker A
So then if somebody tried to and what targets exits actually first so stop loss is going to be 30% of the ATR of the past 15 sessions.
Speaker A
So the daily Yes sir. So so almost so the same calculation that was used in the first strategy.
Speaker A
Yes sir. Okay. Yeah. And uh take profit this one is interesting is going to be uh three times this range. So like reward to risk ratio on this specific strategy is actually a 3x really now. Now the just to be clear then
Speaker A
30% of ATR over the last 15 sessions but is this a moving average of the ATR or is it just the actual ATR value?
Speaker A
Moving average. So a moving average of this session. So a 15 period moving average of ATR.
Speaker A
Yes sir. Got it. Not an ATR with a look back of 15. Traditional ATR.
Speaker A
Yeah. Okay. Uh understood. That's very important point. Thank you for pointing it out. Yeah. No, no, no, no problem. So then this could be a huge uh Okay.
Speaker A
And this one is like uh it's a strategy that's obviously versus the other ones.
Speaker A
it um obviously does have a huge upside. It doesn't trade as often as the others.
Speaker A
Indeed, still have a very high win rate even though the high reward to risk ratio.
Speaker A
So, so then this could absolutely be held overnight if left untouched. Can this be held overnight?
Speaker A
Absolutely not because there is profand allow overnight. Most we do just so everyone knows.
Speaker A
That's That's Do you We do it with the swap fee. Yeah. Wow. Okay. That's incredible.
Speaker A
So you could swing trade for real. Yeah. Most transparent prop firm. That's why you're here in the first place.
Speaker A
And that opens a whole new door of opportunities. All right. All right. Let's talk about that. Uh ever thought about getting into prop trading. Perfect timing. Right now we have the perfect offer for you. You can grab a futures challenge or crypto
Speaker A
challenge for just 9 bucks. Links in the description below. Now, back to the video.
Speaker A
Uh, next interview. Next interview, 100%. And because yeah, the exit if we don't eat neither the stop loss or the take profit, we're going to exit at 4:30 um, sorry, 2:30 central time.
Speaker A
2:30. Yeah. Interesting. So, this trade has to be taken then. This trade could technically be entered at 2 PM if it stays inside the opening range the whole time.
Speaker A
Now, hold on. What if price we have our long side setup, price breaks below the opening range low and then later takes out the opening range high.
Speaker A
Yeah. Yeah. We still valid. Still valid. Yeah. We don't invalidate it like uh you you you can um but this one has already a trading frequency that is very little.
Speaker A
So if we start adding additional conditions that limits the strategy was just hardening the statistics that's why uh we don't invalidate it. There is no need like still we do have the direction overnight. Yeah. If there is something
Speaker A
that happens that breaks the conditions of the fact that there is trading activity before the market opens that is giving you the direction is not going to break the range in any case.
Speaker A
I would imagine most positions are closed based on this time rather than the actual target or stop getting hit.
Speaker A
Yeah. Okay. 100%. Obviously like in many pro firms there is like a daily stop limit.
Speaker A
Mhm. that doesn't allow us to reach the actual stop loss. Yeah. But it limits to let's say 1,000 uh dollars maximum allowed loss for the day. But in any case, this one is very good strategy that the other two can be
Speaker A
used heavily on evaluation phase. Mhm. This one given the nature of the GE geometry is very good for the funded account.
Speaker A
Got it. Because uh takes advantage a lot of the of the direction that the strategy might be in.
Speaker A
Mhm. And um this is it on showing on the uh whiteboard. So we could take all of them and move to the chart. And one last question though. So let's say someone is trying to trade this and isn't finding
Speaker A
success. What do you think would be the problem with all of the strategies? I think you could maybe even answer that.
Speaker A
Yes sir. Like um it could be that if you these are purely designed to trade them systematically.
Speaker A
So obviously if you only start trading it when starts a draw down phase you only have three trades. Yeah. you don't enjoy the benefit of uh um yeah the underneath value of this strategy on the other end like if you apply them
Speaker A
long enough Mhm. if the strategy doesn't break because like there is a structural change underneath that really have the edge decaying.
Speaker A
Mhm. still like you can take advantage of it and in particular like it's not that these edges are very strong like they do have positive expectancy however it's not that this strategy is great for profirm given the strong edge
Speaker A
but they are great given how they are designed their trading frequency the advantage that they're taking the uh geometry with which they've been designed that's the true um pro or advantage that they have and that why they work within a proform
Speaker A
environment. Got it. And for anyone who says as soon as you expose the strategy the edge decays what do you have to say to that?
Speaker A
is is passing prop firm challenges and uh even getting payouts is not about your edge or how strong your strategy is but is purely how you develop the strategy and how you apply it.
Speaker A
Mhm. Because like the execution phase is extremely important as well like taking all the trades, understanding which are the strategies that you should have live because if a strategy this is a little bit of a spoiler but we have seen like in my community
Speaker A
with the guys that I'm working with that if you have a strategy that is in a current draw down it's more likely that your proirm challenge will keep failing over that period of time because like losing streaks cluster
Speaker A
just like winning streaks. So if you have a strategy which equity curve is reaching new eyes new watermarks that strategy is going to be very strong for that specific period of time to allow you to pass challenges. If you
Speaker A
have a strategy in draw down you should bench it for a while until yeah doesn't reach a new high water mark.
Speaker A
Got it. And we'll go to the chart. A more primitive way they used to do that I believe was actually using a moving average on the equity curve of the strategy and only trading it when the equity curve is above the moving
Speaker A
average. You doing that? No, no, no. This is something I read that they did a long time ago. I'm like traders just want to throw moving averages on everything.
Speaker A
100%. 100%. Well, let's go to the chart that let's jump. Matio, this appears to be multi- charts and looks like we have three strategies here as well. I want to see what everything you just discussed actually looks like
Speaker A
as it takes place on a chart 100%. like uh the first of all like we have seen how many moving parts in AK there is across all the strategies and it is quite difficult if you want to keep track of every single one of them
Speaker A
just relying on your eyes and your brain and what uh this piece of software whatever piece of software you want to use for trading allows you to do is taking all a set of rules and translating it into a piece of code.
Speaker A
Got it? And this is a huge advantage over what we're doing because once we have it in a piece of code, all we need to do just taking the strategy applying to our data and in this specific case I
Speaker A
open three specific three charts having all of them NASDAQ 100 futures and applied to each one of them these three strategies that we just discussed.
Speaker A
Got it? For example, let's start with uh the volt break. Here I created I coded the indicators as well to see our rule set that we just discussed in a way that here you can see the orange crosses are the noise up level.
Speaker A
Yeah. The blue one is the VWOP. Mhm. So here is an examples of an historical trade.
Speaker A
So we have uh our price that breaks and closes above the noise up barrier.
Speaker A
The price is above the VWOP line. So it opens a long position. Right. So right here then orange noise barrier. Correct. And this is calculated with 30% of a 15 daily moving average of ATR daily.
Speaker A
Yes sir. Right. And then from the session open which is gray the gray one. Yes.
Speaker A
Add that. Exactly. Okay. And then VWOP is just calculated from the start of the cache session is calculated from midnight as well.
Speaker A
Midnight as well. Okay. Yes sir. And then it looks like we ran into that scenario where Okay. So we are above VWAP.
Speaker A
Yeah. We closed above the noise gate. Yeah. And we open. This one is the scenario where like we hit the takerit.
Speaker A
Yeah. And then it opens another position again because reminder that this strategy can open up to three trades in a single day. We are trying to take advantage of uh this drift and right here exits because the time expires.
Speaker A
So then obviously there is a trade right here. Oh this was outside of the time window.
Speaker A
Yes sir. And the time window was from half past 10 10 to 14:30, right?
Speaker A
Yes sir. Okay. These were in the time window obviously. Exactly. And it looks like you have a trade here this white candle like we exited but the condition was true.
Speaker A
Yeah. where um price can zoom in. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Okay. So, just a candle close above the Yeah, that's it.
Speaker A
Yeah. Yes, sir. This one was the still like you exit but closes Yeah. above the the noise barrier price still above the VWOP. We open the following trade.
Speaker A
And and this has been tested and running and validated for how long now? This one has been validated using since 2018 data but uh here I loaded since uh 2022 just to give a feeling of uh the the strategy
Speaker A
what matters like we used out of sample from 2023. So from 2023 to 2022 today is fully out of sample. And what is important about the coding your strategy is that you don't have to back test it manually, right? You just apply the
Speaker A
piece of code to your data and then you can check what was the performance. Y one thing that I mentioned for example we want to have strategies that are not in draw down. Yeah.
Speaker A
Uh or not in a heavy draw down. This one is reaching new watermarks. So this one is a very valid candidate to run with it a prop firm.
Speaker A
So you would use this at my prop firm to pass challenges. Yes sir. Okay.
Speaker A
I would use actually the three of them like uh given the fact that they fulfill different needs and they take advantage of different scenarios. Mhm.
Speaker A
I these three together can work well for passing proper challenges. Excellent. Obviously, if we have a look at the trade geometry or like the trade statistics, we knew that the average winning trade it is uh uh lower than the average
Speaker A
losing trade. Yeah. Remember that the tick profit is at $800, stop loss is at $1,500.
Speaker A
But net, they still have an average trade win that is positive and fairly strong to be to be on ENQ, so $112.
Speaker A
And to be clear, the average winning trade, even though you have a static stop and target of 800 to,500, obviously the average winning and losing will be a bit lower because you have that condition to exit at the time.
Speaker A
Yeah. Yeah. Correct. Correct. And this one like the most important statistic is this one.
Speaker A
So we have a of 60 67 with a 6 to1. Yeah. Of uh profitable trades. that this one is the key that allows this strategy to be good candidate for for prop firms trading right and um and as we can see like if we
Speaker A
start having a look at the other strategies as well where we did exactly the same like let's take the BWOP ADX strategy so here the logic was we create the opening range high and low starting from 8:30 central time
Speaker A
and uh we monitor the VWOP right so after then if the price goes high up touches the um high of the opening range we arm the trade if it pulls back towards the VWOP and closes back above the VWOP we would open a long position
Speaker A
if the ATR is above 20. This one, sorry, not ATR, ADX. Uh, this one is the DX uh down here. And if it's above 20 and is not increasing, yeah, then we open a position. We can have a
Speaker A
look at a recent trade. Yeah. Yes. Up here. Yeah, this one worked. Yes, sir. This one is exactly what happened. So after 10 touches the high of the range then there is a pullback right breaks back above as the ADX is
Speaker A
not decreasing. Th this is very important. So it looks like your condition was satisfied earlier.
Speaker A
Yes sir. But ADX wasn't decreasing yet. Yeah. So as soon as it started decreasing that entry was taken.
Speaker A
Yeah it's correct. And then we have the tick profit at the high right of the past five bars.
Speaker A
Yes. Yes. Yes. If you could draw that. Is that possible? The take profit of the We can I didn't code it. So like but so it's Yeah.
Speaker A
Just we can draw the charts have drawing tools. Yeah it does. This is how much I draw on the chart.
Speaker A
Yeah I've don't think I've drawn anything in couple years now. Let me see. So we have it right here more or less. So, one, two, three, four, five.
Speaker A
Okay. Awesome. Right there. Yep. So, and that's obviously every target and stop for all these strategies is limit order TP.
Speaker A
Correct. And then the stop is just a traditional um stop-loss, market order. Yes, sir.
Speaker A
Okay. So here down here obviously we had uh uh the past 20 bars which most likely was around here. So it it did get close to get stopped out.
Speaker A
Luckily it didn't and just went to target and just like uh the other one obviously here we have it encoded in a piece of code means that we can take it apply to the data and check the statistic. So
Speaker A
this one's even has better statistics. I believe the average trade on the last one was about 121, right?
Speaker A
Yeah. But this one has a lower trading frequency. Okay. So a lower number of trades. Uh that's why the average trade is uh is higher. Um but again, but it's 7 RR with around the same win rate.
Speaker A
Yes sir. Yes sir. And um still just like for every or like the vast majority of strategies that are appropriate for prop firms trading um right reward to risk ratio under one and very high trading frequency and just to be clear was there a time
Speaker A
condition or not trading frequency sorry very high win rate yes was there a time condition for this one again yeah this one as well is going to exit before the market close. I put that one on top of every single strategy that
Speaker A
we develop for um professionally because I didn't know until today that you can do overnight at IQ best prop firm but um yeah and um lastly we have the overnight bias where just like we did it before let's
Speaker A
take one with a trade it's just like uh quite lucky that the most recent trades are just all of them in the morning working out well. Could we see the equity curve on that strategy number two? I don't think we looked at it.
Speaker A
Yes, sir. You're right. Let's have a look. EDX. Ah, very nice. This as well like U.
Speaker A
So, where's your split? Uh, this one is just all of them have have a out of sample from 2023 developed from 2018. So all from here is purely out of sample.
Speaker A
This is all out of sample data for the most part. Exactly. And uh this one as well recently touching new highs. That's what we like. That's what is appropriate for a profirm um environment.
Speaker A
Mhm. Overnight bias again this one as well obviously translated into a piece of code here. I created like even with indicators like the beauty of uh knowing how to ask AI how to develop for you is that you can create your own
Speaker A
custom indicators for every single one of your strategies. And this one like I created purely for this uh talk because I think it's important to visualize it when while we're talking rather than just seeing position open or close.
Speaker A
Well, I was a strategy indicator developer and then AI came and well now I do this.
Speaker A
So and um but yeah it's um yeah this one as well we can see like all the conditions that we have seen in the whiteboard before.
Speaker A
Obviously, we have uh the uh overnight range that starts at midnight central time. We have the top and the bottom and the gray one in between is the top one/3 bottom 1/3.
Speaker A
Got it. And as you can see here, when it did open at uh uh this was almost beautiful. So we we opened in the top oneird.
Speaker A
Yeah. Right. And I believe here on almost the first bar this one. Yeah. Like the first one always creates the opening range, right?
Speaker A
Yes. So like we have the opening range which is the orange one. Yeah. And then like the following one already closed basically above the the opening range because Yeah. We wait like the first one after 9 central time,
Speaker A
right? So as it open broke like so we had the long bias because was on the top one/3 it uh breaks the opening range of the first 15 minutes.
Speaker A
Mhm. Open long and this one is one of them at uh with a very high reward to risk ratio.
Speaker A
Yeah. Just just to be clear here though. So ADX was over 20. That's it. That's the only condition.
Speaker A
Right. Right. But we entered here what looks to be not on the candle that broke the opening range high because it's after um after 9:30. Yeah, got it. Okay.
Speaker A
So, it's like but still and the ADX the only condition of the ADX in this one just needs to be above above 20.
Speaker A
ADX is actually extremely high during this whole period. Yeah. Yeah. 100%. But this one is like it's a very strong trend in this like you see that it's just like increasing.
Speaker A
Mhm. Again the ADX doesn't tell you the direction purely the strength of the trend and uh this one is the equity curve of this uh current strategy. Got it.
Speaker A
Uh again after 2023 purely out of sample uh we are not in draw down.
Speaker A
Mhm. We want strategies that are not in draw down. This is so important. If we apply them trading like So then obviously I have to beg the question. What do you do when a strategy is in draw down?
Speaker A
We bench them. Yeah. For how long? Yeah. Until they don't come back. Uh so then we have what exactly how do you identify a strategy as being in an untradeable draw down? That one is related with like uh the frequency of
Speaker A
failure okay of the challenge applying the strategy because as you have like two challenges failed uh one after another it's already time to run some reconsideration like it doesn't make sense applying this strategy because all of these strategies
Speaker A
they have around 40% pass probability if you run them alone. Mh. So if you have two strategies that fail one after another.
Speaker A
So so if you use a strategy and it fails two challenges sequentially. Yeah. You're saying to bench it.
Speaker A
Yeah. What I would say like let's investigate if it's the case about benching it. Let's have a look at the draw down.
Speaker A
Um what is the current draw down versus historical draw down? Which percentile falls in? You can run many different tests and it's um 100% up to up to you like how severe you want to be against the strategy. But this is one thing that is
Speaker A
so important, one of the reason why it's so important to don't just rely on one strategy like you need to rely at least on a three strategies because as one of them breaks Yeah. You need to have a substitute
Speaker A
potentially. So, so then would you say these three strategies are uncorrelated with one another?
Speaker A
Yeah, we did run tests like in everything we do like we always take all our strategies and we put them under a series of tests. One of them is studying the correlation across the strategies.
Speaker A
Let me take no before you do though. So the draw down right you say if we fail two challenges it could be conditional where you know check out the return structure recently in the of the strategies equity curves it's most recent trades etc
Speaker A
but assuming you do bench a system when do you know to bring it back if it reaches a new high in the equity curve in the equity curve would be a good sign that you can start trading it again
Speaker A
okay and then How do you define a new all-time high in the equity curve?
Speaker A
A new alltime high alltime high and assuming it goes flat for three, four weeks and moves substantially away from the all-time high in the equity curve. Do you still apply that same logic?
Speaker A
Yeah, you just wait until you don't touch a new high. You don't try to force it into live trading. Yeah.
Speaker A
It makes just no sense. like it's like uh I don't want to say that like that but like when you know that with your uh ex-girlfriend didn't work out but you still want to be together. No, it didn't
Speaker A
work out like you move on, right? Story of my life. But but that's it. Like don't get too attached with the strategies. Even on the trading floor we say we don't marry a trading strategy. Like if this training strategy stops working, we just
Speaker A
bench it. If it starts working again, we might reconsider putting it in place. But if uh it doesn't work, it doesn't work.
Speaker A
Now you you said two failed challenges sequentially. But what about the actual equity curve in the strategy itself?
Speaker A
Will this make you bench? it. For instance, if the if there is a draw down in the strategy, regardless of the two challenge failed rule that you put, would this still make you bench?
Speaker A
If I didn't trade the strategy, but I just Yeah, let's Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Let's say that. How do you How does someone Let's say someone picked a strategy up and the equity the current return structure, the immediate one was in a
Speaker A
draw down, but they haven't failed any challenges. Yeah. Yeah. You just wait. But but how do we but it depend it really depends like it could be that let's say you run multiple strategies simultaneously on one single challenge because like they do work
Speaker A
together across them they have a very low correlation like these strategies together they have a correlation that is lower than 0.25 25.
Speaker A
Mhm. But that and that's great. But um what is how do we how can someone new watching this distinguish between normal variance in the equity curve in the most recent returns in the system and an actual draw down period. You know what I
Speaker A
mean? Yeah. And to to bench, you know. Yeah. 100%. like uh the way I do it is obviously like running a simple Monte Carlo simulation and that one like gives you a distribution of possible draw down.
Speaker A
Yeah. And then like you can say if the draw down is above the 75th percentile.
Speaker A
Mhm. That's time to bench it. Mhm. You can do this on multi charts. You you cannot do it on multi charts.
Speaker A
The way I do it what you can do on multi charts is downloading all the historical trades. Mhm.
Speaker A
And then you just can write a very simple piece of code with Python. Usually we use like among the people they ask me how can you do that. I suggest to use a collab or on Google that is 100% free. Just upload the
Speaker A
trades. If you ask JPT to write you a simple code to run a Monte Carlo analysis and to get the distribution of the draw downs and then you can see let's say that the result of the Monte Car is
Speaker A
saying that your strategy shouldn't have a draw down larger than $20,000 and in the or like above the $20,000 you are above the 75th percentile. Mhm.
Speaker A
So if your current draw down is larger than $20,000, you can put that one as a yard stick of saying bench it.
Speaker A
Bench it. But then you wait for the new equity curve high. Correct. To start.
Speaker A
Sorry. Got it. Yeah. No, absolutely. Okay. Understood. I I don't remember if we looked at the performance measures here.
Speaker A
Um, no we didn't. So the average trade is phenomenal. The average trade is very high.
Speaker A
Obviously, it's on the back of the very high reward to risk ratio that this strategy has.
Speaker A
And this one, we actually didn't look at the exit, but this one uses that 15 period moving average of the daily ATR.
Speaker A
Correct. We do have a time exit on this one. There is a time exit that's mostly hit.
Speaker A
100%. Right. Okay. 100%. And obviously the trading frequency in this one is very low.
Speaker A
Yep. So both the trading frequency and the high reward to risk ratio give a boost on the um average.
Speaker A
I mean it's 1.4 with a 53% um that would be considered quite yeah and the beauty of this one is that look how symmetrical it is. The average trade between both the long side and short side. Obviously the long side
Speaker A
is a bit higher on the win rate because the market does drift. So like uh uh that one is the different and advantage that the long leg have over a short leg.
Speaker A
But once considering how strong the drift has been in these markets over the past five years once you find a strategy that has a strong short leg. Well, I mean, the short side is extremely impressive because obviously beta can bail you out
Speaker A
on the long side a lot, but not on the short side as much. So, 50% win rate with a 1.6 on the short side.
Speaker A
Yeah, that is extremely strong. It is 200 trades, but that is still very important. It's quite symmetrical as well still like though between uh uh long number of trades and short number of trades. Um and again consider this one doesn't
Speaker A
consider the full period that we used. Mhm. Uh but uh is mainly out of sample and an out of sample performance like this is very good. um percentage of profitable is not the best for like um challenges challenge but still like this one is
Speaker A
very good like once you get funded yeah this could be definitely more applicable in funded yeah so it's like u that's why I wanted to bring like a little bit of a high forward like okay you have a set of strategies that
Speaker A
increase substantially the probability of busing once you passed the focus changes a little bit like even the risk geometry of the strategies needs to be adapted a bit and this one could be a good starting point just to be clear here so what is the
Speaker A
total P&L I don't see the number uh this one in this specific period is saying like using one contract on NQ 200 200,000 200,000 and then if you could go back to trade analysis there was a great statistic there so outliers. So outliers
Speaker A
contributed 88,000 with 53 total. And obviously I would suspect outliers would contribute a lot to this system given that it's mostly going to close 100%. 100%.
Speaker A
Mhm. But yeah, it's it is a strategy that like could be a very good starting point uh for funed especially because like if when you trade a single strategy even like on a pro firm challenge, one thing that you really need to pay
Speaker A
attention to or keep in mind is that you only have 21 trading days to pass.
Speaker A
Mhm. Um something like this that doesn't trade as often. No. if run alone like you would have so many challenges that just expire without hitting a take profit or a stop loss if you size them properly. Y that's a complete different conversation
Speaker A
for another time. But uh on the same time like on a funded account you might have some rules that require that you have some trading activity going on. But this one could be a great strategy to have in your arsenal
Speaker A
to take advantage of large movements. Absolutely. Yeah. And um yeah, and the way like I I I would apply this, the way like uh the guys uh uh in my community are pushed to apply it is have them encoded obviously
Speaker A
have them in a software like multi charts and you don't trade them manually. But what you do, you just connect your proirm challenge to this account and you automate it because at that point you don't need to I think actually I have one panel and
Speaker A
and once you have it like encoded obviously like all you need to do is just connecting it to your prof just pressing one button and now these strategies are trading live like these strategies are connected to a proirm challenge. They're
Speaker A
monitoring at every single moment in time if the three condition or if the conditions of the three trading strategies are satisfied. And if they are satisfied, they're going to open a position for me. Like it's not that you
Speaker A
need to be there like waiting and checking if you um are in a all your conditions across three strategies are going to be open or not.
Speaker A
And one thing that we notice is that like having three strategies running simultaneously rather than just relying on one.
Speaker A
Mhm. It does improve the probabilities of passing a perform challenge rather than just uh running one.
Speaker A
So then rate from 1 to 10, how set and forget are these strategies? Well, it really depends like uh how aggressive you want to be in a way that you can decide like the optimal sizing for these strategies is around five
Speaker A
micro for each one of them. So like u with an average time to pass of approximately five trading days. Mhm.
Speaker A
So basically you set them up if you only run one challenge and for five trading days just let them trading.
Speaker A
Yeah, that's it. So it's quite sit and forget if you if you ask me because like you do all the work beforehand then like the moment of trading or better like trading itself is not about clicking the buttons
Speaker A
anymore. It's the development process behind it to understand to study what is the right thing to do then trading is just matter of clicking these buttons and then the computer is going to do it for you. It's bit
Speaker A
unfortunate today or at this moment in time there is no conditions satisfied like even if we analyzed each one of them this one is the volt break we need to have a break of the noise zone so like this price should go up here
Speaker A
looks like it's likely the overnight bias we do have there. Let me check. So 8:30 is right here. So was in the middle one/3.
Speaker A
So it's not going to trade. Yeah. Right. Because we need to be either in the top 1/3 or bottom one/3. So this one is not going to trade today. This one is the only one that potentially can open a
Speaker A
trade because right now we are after 10. If the price goes back touching the top part of the opening range.
Speaker A
Yeah. Pull back to the view then it would open a trade. Got it. Excellent. Well, Matio, is there anything else you wanted to show me?
Speaker A
Not really. I think we covered quite a lot. I think so as well. So, man, there's so many questions I still want to ask you.
Speaker A
We'll have to save them for next interview. Let's see. Like whenever you want. Like we this time I flew to Dubai to meet you and do this one.
Speaker A
Next time we fly to San California. No, San Diego. Not San Diego. San Diego, guys. I'm out there.
Speaker A
Well, Matio, thank you so much. Thank you so much. Genuinely appreciate it. I'm Brandon from IQ Capital. You can start your first challenge for as little as $9. Terms and conditions apply. Check the link in the description below and
Speaker A
try not to use his strategies. Okay.
Topics:prop firm challengealgorithmic tradingquantitative hedge fundMatteo ContiVWAP strategyprop trading strategiesautomated tradingrisk managementfunded traderinstitutional trading
