Speaker A
Ladies and gentlemen, hello everyone. My name is Ashkan. You are on my YouTube channel "A Bird in the Hand," dedicated to football predictions, sports analytics, and the gambling industry. If you are interested in this topic, subscribing to this channel will definitely be useful for you. I also want to remind you about an application that I use myself and have started using actively this season. It is BET IQ. For convenience, you can download the mobile version on iPhone, or rather, what is called the web version of the app. Just go to the site bet.kz and you can immediately add it to your home screen as an app. For those who find the bot convenient, you can use the bot or just the website. I will leave all the links somewhere in the description and the pinned comment. Again, I only recommend what I use myself. The sections there are also being updated. And it is also important to understand that this is a free application at the moment. And it will be free not only in September, but until the end of October you will have full premium access via the links you can see below. When you log in via Telegram, in your personal cabinet, or rather in your profile, it will say "full access" at the top. This means you are granted absolutely full free access to the entire application. And you can view analyses of all matches using artificial intelligence, look at average total stats, track odds drops or changes, and see where the money is being bet. In short, all of this is in one app. Use it while it's free, while it's helpful. Now, let's move on to the predictions. Italy against Turkey. Actually, I am surprised by the odds. At the moment, they are giving 1.5 for Italy, and around six for Turkey. Yes, such is the state of affairs, folks. In short, the Italians played great against Turkey away. They won 4-1. But what about the facts of the game? 6-2 in corners for Turkey, 15-14 in shots. 3-3 in goal-scoring opportunities, 54 to 46 in favor of Turkey. Again, here possession and everything else is in their favor, except shots on target. Shots on target favor Italy. In terms of shots on target, the Italians did everything precisely and exactly as needed. But even in xG, Turkey played almost to 2.88. That is, Turkey has zero problems creating moments and attacking. But converting them, that's where there are some questions. And considering how heavily the Turks have been underestimated, I think the bet I gave you for the first match is still appropriate. Turkey's individual total over one. By the way, over time, the odds may drop. That is, in principle, a natural process. But why is Turkey so heavily underestimated right now? Yes, the Italians, again, are still looking for their lineup. They’re experimenting; they lose 2-0 at home to Belgium, then they crush Turkey, so it’s unclear what to expect from them. But I think shutting out the Turks completely will be difficult. The Turks, again, remember from the World Cup, they’d go and lose 1-0 or lose 1-0 to Paraguay, 2-0 to Australia, but then score three goals against the USA because they create chances, they attack, but things don’t always go as planned. In general, I think at odds of 1.7, it’s quite justifiable to take an individual total over one for Turkey. That’s it. I don’t even want to think about corners or yellow cards. It feels like looking for trouble where you don't need to. Moving on. France against Belgium. The French, beautiful football, everything seems good, everything is cool. There shouldn't be any big problems with anything. They can do whatever they want in the Nations League. One of the main favorites. Actually, no, they are the main favorites under any circumstances. Turkey has regressed, and Belgium and Italy have their own problems to solve. But right now, beating Belgium shouldn't be a problem for the French. When I gave the prediction for Spain, I told you that there are main contenders for the Golden Ball right now. That includes Yamal, Mbappe, and, by the way, Harry Kane belongs there too. Well, not quite as bright now, of course, because Yamal won the World Cup there, and the MVP is based on general merits or some individual records. But there is a race going on, it will continue, and young bright stars will be given the opportunity to shine in all tournaments that will be taken into account. And the Nations League is also taken into account for all statistics of goals scored, assists, and so on and so forth. Therefore, I think this match will turn out to be brighter than the previous one, because the French will be playing at home here. I simply expect the French to dominate. Will Belgium score? Well, it’s quite possible. The situation there is somewhere around 50/50. Actually, I really like the individual total for Belgium under one, because since a goal is around 50/50, what more is there to say? The Belgians played the French at home and couldn't score. They didn't even reach 1.0 xG. They only had two shots on target, and now the Belgians will be playing away. That’s how things are. I expect France to dominate in every metric. And, of course, goals; I really like a France win with a -1 handicap. I was looking at other matches as well, like Montenegro versus Romania, and here Ukraine versus Hungary. Let’s talk about Ukraine versus Hungary after all. In short, the reason I assumed that in the Ukraine-Hungary match—and there is a video on YouTube, by the way, you can refresh your memory—was that I expected fouls, yellow cards, a gritty game, a battle, nerves, and emotions, because the political situation in these countries is very, very tense. People are starting to hate each other there. And now it’s spilling over into football. In the first video, I didn’t want to analyze this because, well, I don’t really want to comment on or talk about politicized sporting events; I want to treat sports as sports, analyze as an analyst, and that’s it. But I did tell you about the fouls and the yellow cards. My god, there were an abnormally high number of them. Did you see how many yellow cards there were at the end? A fight. First of all, it started with the Hungarians getting a yellow card right in the fifth minute. The Ukrainians didn't lag behind, getting one in the twenty-first minute. In the second half, they started flying right from the beginning: a yellow in the forty-ninth minute, then in the middle of the half at the seventy-first, then towards the end at the eighty-second, and in the ninety-third minute, four yellow cards at once. Actually, five. One just turned into a red because it was a second yellow. Well, in general, the situation is that people hate each other. They are fighting, they are playing football, and they will do their absolute best to put spokes in each other's wheels. Perhaps the coaching staff or the management will have some disciplinary talks, and the match will take place in the Czech Republic. Perhaps, well, I don’t know right now to what extent the stadiums support Ukraine in terms of football or not. I just know that some do more, some less, and I don't want to get into politics. But, considering that Ukraine managed to claw out a victory against the Hungarians and did it, in principle, worthily and fairly, I think the same result will happen on a neutral field. At the very least, when they give you a chance to take a zero handicap on Ukraine for odds higher than—no, when the odds for a win are over 2.0, then the zero handicap will be around 1.65. And that is, in general, okay for us. Well, Hungarians, you had a chance to win at home against Ukraine or at least get a draw, but no, you didn't manage it. And on a neutral field in the Czech Republic, it’s unlikely to be any easier, so my priority is Ukraine, just purely logically. How many fouls and yellow cards will there be? You can watch the first half, pay attention to what's happening, if things are really heating up. And you also need to check the referee, see what he gives for yellows and fouls. By th
