Speaker A
This week's trades, market movers, and technical levels that count, wrapped up with clarity and precision. This is a weekly wrap-up with Verified Investing.
Weekly market wrap-up covering AI trade collapse, tech sell-off, S&P and NASDAQ technical levels, and oil price surge.
Key Takeaways
- AI trade panic is driving a major sell-off in tech and semiconductor stocks.
- Critical technical support levels on S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 will determine market direction next week.
- Swing trading beaten-down AI and semiconductor stocks at key levels can offer opportunities amid volatility.
- Debt and leverage concerns are exacerbating the market sell-off in AI-related companies.
- Oil price strength is a contrasting positive factor supporting energy stocks.
What the video covers
- Significant tech sector collapse driven by AI trade panic, with major semiconductor and AI-related stocks dropping sharply.
- S&P 500 fell 1.1% but remains above neutral zone; key support level at 3750 to watch for potential bearish shift.
- NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) dropped 2.5%, approaching critical support at 700; a break could lead to a further 7% decline.
- Micron peaked in June 2023 and is now in freefall, with major support at the July low of 73.6.
- Selective nibbling on beaten-down tech stocks like OKLO, IonQ, ASTS, and Cerebras (CBRS) at key technical levels.
- Coreweave shows short-term support but may drop to 51.50 if current levels break, presenting swing trade opportunities.
- Concerns over excessive debt and leverage in AI companies are fueling market panic, likened to a financial crisis or bubble burst.
- Nvidia remains in an uptrend but critical support at 210 must hold to avoid negative technical outlook.
- Broadcom (AVGO) approaching attractive technical support levels, potential swing trade candidate.
- Oil prices continue to surge near $100/barrel, benefiting oil stocks despite tech sector weakness.
Chapters
- 00:00Weekly Market Wrap-Up Introduction
- 01:06S&P 500 Analysis and Key Levels
- 02:18NASDAQ 100 and Tech Sector Decline
- 03:05Micron and Semiconductor Stocks Overview
- 04:05Selective Buying and Swing Trading Opportunities
- 05:06Coreweave and Debt Concerns in AI Companies
- 06:03Nvidia and Broadcom Technical Levels
- 08:15AI Trade Fear Impact and Market Sentiment
- 10:15Oil Price Surge and Energy Stocks
- 11:10Summary and Final Market Outlook
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Massive tech collapse, folks. We saw it today after yesterday's gap down and bounce. The NASDAQ took a beating. We're going to get into all the charts here.
Speaker A
We're going to get into the trading setups going into the weekend and for next week. But before we do that, my name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com.
Speaker A
And as always, all charts and data, no BS. All right, so we saw the S&P falling today, the NASDAQ getting hit even harder. The AI panic trade actually escalated today. Coreweave down over 13%. We saw basically every semiconductor stock taking a beating.
Speaker A
And really, it spread beyond that, right? It went to anything related to AI. Even Palantir got smoked today to the downside. I'm going to take a look at that chart in just a minute, but first let's go into the S&P 500. So,
Speaker A
here's the S&P 500 on the day, and you can see it was a nasty day, down 1.1% or 85 points. Now, overall, is this a broken chart? And that's number one. We have to look at it logically. And the
Speaker A
answer is, as of now, it is not. We are still above the neutral zone. Here's your neutral zone right here. Yes, we're coming down. So, we must pay attention to this 3750 level on the S&P next week.
Speaker A
If that gets punctured and broken, then all of a sudden, you have to go from being on the S&P bullish to more neutral. If that gets broken, if the neutral zone gets broken, we need to switch to a more bearish bias as you
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could see a bigger drop down to 3500 or 3,000 on the S&P 500. So, right now on the S&P, and I'm stressing the S&P here because the NASDAQ I've been bearish on, right, we saw the peak, I believe,
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already in the NASDAQ, and my guess is there's going to be more pain to come on the S&P. It's diversified enough with alternate plays that there may still be a little bit of upside, albeit just to 4,000 before we see a major top
Speaker A
in that. All right, so let's keep our eyes on that. Speaking of the NASDAQ, let's go to the NASDAQ 100 chart. The QQQ down 2.5% today. This is a big drop.
Speaker A
Now, we are coming into its neutral zone pivot line. So, here it is right here.
Speaker A
And you can very clearly see gap fill pivot low, pivot low, pivot low. This is the level to watch next week. It's right at 700 on the QQQ. So watch that like a hawk, folks. That's going to be the one
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to watch. It's about 10 points away from the current price on the NASDAQ 100 QQQ.
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All right. If that breaks, that opens the trap door down to this pivot low, which takes us back to the July low, and that would be at 661.
Speaker A
So, we're talking about another 7% sell-off or so below that trend line. Now, again, as I mentioned, I think, if you ask me, the tech stocks have already topped. And I'm mainly talking about AI.
Speaker A
And the answer is Micron put in the top earlier this year. And if we flip over to the Micron chart here and take a look, Micron peaked back in June, right?
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Right here, June of 2023. From that, it corrected bare flagged, right? So, you have all this sideways chop with slight upside, but it never was able to take out that peak. That's a bearish sign after all of this time that it couldn't
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do it. Now, it's broken down and we are now in freefall. Now, where's your first major support on Micron? You got to go back to that July low at 73.6. That's going to be the level to watch over the
Speaker A
next couple weeks. Now, is it possible that we're due for a bounce in some of these stocks and we could see a retrace to the scene of the crime before it rolls back down? Yes. In fact, I did do
Speaker A
some little nibbling today on certain names in the tech sector. So, names that again have been beaten up. OKLO, IonQ, ASTS, very small positions, but beginning to nibble. And I'll tell you, I did buy one semiconductor at the end
Speaker A
of the day because of the chart, and that chart was CBRS, right? Cerebras. And again, let me put that in RS here.
Speaker A
The reason I picked this up, it's at all-time lows from the IPO day, which was just absolutely ridiculous. But look at this descending trend line here, right through here, and we basically kissed it today on the downside. So,
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just going back to September 25th, 3 weeks ago, this was a $212 stock. It's now $126.
Speaker A
What a fall from grace. And speaking of which, Coreweave had a great reversal after a gap down yesterday, right back down today. It is at short-term support, but if this breaks, here's your next level to watch on Coreweave. I might
Speaker A
actually nibble here at around 51.50. This gap fill, I know it's hard to see for some of you, but there's a gap fill right here where the price, let me just zoom in on it for you guys. Price closed
Speaker A
here. It opened the next day right there. That's your level there. And in addition, you stretch it out over here, and you can see this pivot area right there on Coreweave. So, that's my expectation. If we break this current
Speaker A
level of around 61 or so on Coreweave, you likely see a move down to 51, which then gets me in as a swing trader. And again, what is going on here? Let's talk a little bit about this, right? I
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explained this in my trading game plan yesterday. You basically have all of these companies have accumulated massive amounts of debt. Massive amounts of debt. And now when you're looking out on the curve like four, five, six years
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out, the cost to insure that debt is skyrocketing. In other words, the insurance companies don't believe some of these companies are going to pay back the massive borrowing that they've done.
Speaker A
And that is sending a frenzy into the system of is the AI trade overdone? Is there too much leverage? Right? I mean, is this the financial crisis of the AI?
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Is this the dot bubble bursting? And in many ways, I think it is. I still think there's lots of demand for AI, but at the same time things have gotten way out of hand, way out of hand for this
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buildout and ultimately there will be a few winners like Nvidia most likely and then there will be a lot of losers out there. So that's why I maintain a swing trade mentality of I don't know who's going to be the winners and losers, right?
Speaker A
I'm not going to pretend to know, but can I swing trade these things when they get to key levels for bounces? Absolutely I can. All right, so that's where we are on that. If we flip through a couple of
Speaker A
these other stocks. Nvidia today, taking a look here, Nvidia down about 1 and a half percent. Reliably, Nvidia actually held up better than many of the other stocks. I mean, one and a half percent is not a horrendous day for Nvidia. And even Nvidia is still in
Speaker A
an uptrend, right? You do have this technical support zone here, but I will have to watch this 210-ish area. If it breaks 210, that would be a very negative thing in the charts. That would be extremely negative to see if it were
Speaker A
to break that. All right, so again, keep an eye on this 210 level next week on Nvidia. Then you look at Broadcom, right? AVGO. This is actually into a very enticing level. I didn't buy it today, but it is on my radar for Monday
Speaker A
for a potential swing trade long. Beautiful descending trend line coming into a lot of gaps here. In fact, I'll draw a couple in. There's a major gap fill here, right? There's we just filled this one here and then you got this area
Speaker A
right through there. So I would say anywhere from this 325 down to about 315 level you start to get some major technical support on some of these chip stocks. Now I spent a lot of time on chips but really what you have here look
Speaker A
at this Palantir down 7% today. That is an absolute crushing day. So, we saw the tech selling. I mean, it wasn't it was the fear came from the AI trade, but the fear is that it's like a virus that
Speaker A
it's going to spread and it's going to engulf spending on all of these areas, right? All of these areas like Palantir and some of these others. Now, again, I'm a big fan of buying into fear.
Speaker A
That's how I've made so much money in my trading career is timing things. And I
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or so, that starts to get my attention on this big fear push. Now again, long-term investment, no, no, no, no, no. Tech for me has topped until proven otherwise. So bounces will ultimately roll over, but that doesn't mean there
Speaker A
can't be five or 10% gains very easily had in a few days in the right chart setups. And that's obviously what we do here at verifiedinvesting.com.
Speaker A
All right, couple other charts to go over here. We looked at Nvidia, Coreweave, Cerebrus, all of these others. I did mention OKLO. I mean, this again has just absolutely been annihilated. But that's where I start to like them. Like these I'm starting to
Speaker A
like. You're getting back to levels really. We're talking about levels down around $25 here where this starts to look very interesting as as low as 18 before the big runup. And I think that's so incredible to see these things having
Speaker A
come down so much. Or I NQ, right? Oo NQ. I played this yesterday with members of Smart Money Stocks and ETFs. We bought it down here. We sold it yesterday. Thank goodness we did. And we rebought in towards the lows today
Speaker A
because of this exact trend line setup gap fill with a de ascending trend line coming into it. And let's be fair, if you had to be, at least for me, and I can only speak for myself, but if I have
Speaker A
to be in something that's longer term, I'm going to look for the future technology. What is that? It's supercomputers, right? And so again, doesn't mean it can't go lower and I'll swing trade it, but these also I like
Speaker A
where they're going in the future and that gives me that extra confidence to pick up small. And I stress small because this is a market that especially in techland is in a precarious spot.
Speaker A
Now, I didn't even cover oil yet, but oil is adding insult to injury. Absolutely. What are we seeing? Oil up again getting close to $100 a barrel.
Speaker A
And when you talk about the AI trade collapsing, you can't really say it's on its own here. There's absolutely an influence with oil. Why oil? I mean, why why would oil influence this trade?
Speaker A
Because if oil the longer it stays up here, the the more hurt it puts on the economy. The more hurt it puts on the economy and the consumer. it does have ripple effects that at some point people are going to have to cancel their Gemini
Speaker A
which is Google, right? They're going to have to cancel some of these things and then you have an issue where they've raised all this debt and they possibly can't pay it all back as easily even names like Google slash again with
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Gemini. So again, you look at GL big down day and it's at risk of breaking a major trend line here, major trend line.
Speaker A
So, we've got to watch very closely next week on this one because if this breaks, this starts the mega cap potential collapse. Now, it's funny because this morning in the game plan, I came in, markets were neutral to positive AI
Speaker A
trade was kind of iffy. It was down a little bit, but it didn't look that bad.
Speaker A
And the highlight of the day was, oh my goodness, flying cars, right? Tesla, flying cars. And Tesla opened up and it just sold straight down. Even in this market, even in this market, it could not hold up. So, taking a quick look at
Speaker A
Tesla, then we'll get into some of the commodities and Bitcoin. But look at this drop today on Tesla. Tesla opened sharply higher, couldn't even hold, broke this key technical line here. It's not a huge line, but basically, again,
Speaker A
it just shows you how weak the markets were that even something that unveiled a flying car could not even hold its gains. And granted, the flying car is not going to be something that any of us are going to be getting in the next 5
Speaker A
years, right? If full self-driving has been promised for basically 5 to 10 years and we don't still don't have it, then flying cars, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it's more than 5 years out. Although, I'm very excited to
Speaker A
have one when they become available. Okay, let's move on to other things here. Gold today, flattish. The positive for gold is that it was able to hold above the orange trend line, right? So, we've seen a couple pierces and closes.
Speaker A
Never confirmed a breakdown. Gold is continuing to hang in there. Maybe a little bit of a safe haven play here.
Speaker A
Now, silver has an industrial component. Bounced yesterday, but it did go down today a little bit. Not a huge drop, though. So, that's the positive at least is that it didn't collapse too much here. It still needs to hold 55 bucks.
Speaker A
If it breaks 55, basically, I'll be putting some orders at 50 bucks and be looking to buy myself on a pierce of that level. All right. Now, by the way, I want to be clear on this. There are
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stock winners out there, and I was screaming about this. I look like a total fool a couple months ago. Total fool. And listen, I look at like a fool a lot of times, but that's that's neither here nor there. The point is,
Speaker A
you look at names like CocaCola. You look at names like Walmart. You look the the old trustees are winning it out. I mean, these are names that were beaten down. And again, I know I went into silver, but I just thought about that.
Speaker A
Look at the chart on on Coke. I mean, look at that. Incredible. That's an incredible move. Notice that it has ripped higher as this the NASDAQ has collapsed. What that is called is money flow. Money flow is not being taken out
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of the market per se, at least not by institutional money. It's being rotated. And you can go to almost any of these. I mean, ABBV, right? Take a look at this one, guys. This is actually one that I
Speaker A
actually like as a short now. ABBV. It's up into major. But look at this chart.
Speaker A
Incredible. Again, remarkable. And by the way, oil stocks, same thing. Oil has done very well because oil's been staying up. So like Valero had I think Valero was down today, but Marathon Petroleum, Sutton Core, some of those other ones did very very well today. Uh
Speaker A
let's take a look at Valero. Valero by the way, amazing shortable opportunity here in my opinion. So actually I'm actually very bearish on the refiners at these upper levels. Um but if you look at for instance uh SU here, let's take a
Speaker A
look at SU here and we'll go to the one that's on the New York Stock Exchange. I mean, look at the run here recently.
Speaker A
Run, absolutely remarkable run to the upside. Uh, we'll see where it ultimately goes, but but incredible run.
Speaker A
So, there are stocks that are performing, but you had to kind of be ready for these. And again, I was I wasn't I was really not in the the refiners because I don't trust at some point there there could be a deal and
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then all of these, you know, the refiners could drop 20% in a day if that were to happen. But was I in Clorox? Was I in some of these others? Heck yeah, I was. Absolutely. When you have dividend
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paying stocks that are beaten up like they were, how do you not have some exposure with the ridiculousness that we were seeing in the AI stocks? All right, let's continue on here, guys. Get back to some of the commodities. Natural gas
Speaker A
today down again broke back below its key level. It never confirmed the breakout. It's been struggling to break out for some time. Keeps getting closer and closer, but still has not broken out. And oil again, oil just continues
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to go up now trading at $99 a barrel, folks. 99 with literally three weeks until the midterms. Remarkable. If you you asked me, and I said this flat out, and I was dead wrong on this, is that I said I said when we were trading
Speaker A
back at 100 bucks a few months ago, I said, "Oh, I'm bearish on oil because I got to believe that they're going to do everything in their power to bring oil in by the midterms." And granted, we still have 3 weeks to go, but time is
Speaker A
running out and it doesn't seem like there's an offramp. Frankly, it does not seem like there's any simple answer here. Um otherwise, it would have been done already. So, again, incredible. Um we'll see what happens. Uh I don't have
Speaker A
a lot of shorts. I do have a short on Valero I'm still holding. We're basically break even on that with smart money stocks and ETF members. But, um but I do think at some point it comes in, but certainly it has been resilient
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like crazy and it has not been good for inflation. And if you saw those PPI numbers this week and CPI, the consumer and producer price indexes, holy cow, those were hot numbers. And what's crazy is yield still fell because the collapse
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of the AI trade is making everyone think we're going right into a recession. They might be right. We'll have to watch and see. All right. Um, couple other charts here to go over. Bitcoin, we got to look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to hold
Speaker A
the 81,000 level. As long as it does that, it's technically okay. In other words, this is your break point, right?
Speaker A
So, you can see this was resistance and then it broke out. It now has become support. Resistance flipping to support is one of the oldest things in the book of technical analysis and it's proving itself out again here. If we break this,
Speaker A
you go to 755. If we can come up here and retest 87,000 and change, maybe we got a shot for a breakout on this front.
Speaker A
Speaking of which, guys, I got to mention the Rumble wallet. They sponsor us. They enable us to do what we do here. So, really give them some props, right? I know no one likes likes hearing from sponsors, but at the same time, we
Speaker A
wouldn't honestly I wouldn't do this show if it wasn't for a sponsor, right? I got too many people to pay, too many too many things to cover, too many things to do. But ultimately, Rumble Wallet, you use that QR code, download
Speaker A
it. I trade my crypto right here on it. And even gold. I've I've done swing trading on gold via this as well as via the app. Easy to use. Big company, billion-dollar company, SE SEC regulated, which gives me confidence.
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and they give $10 in free stable coins when you download it. Granted, they want you to use it to tip um content makers on their platform, which makes a lot of sense. I think that's great. Good quality should be rewarded. But
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ultimately, use that QR code, guys. Download it. Show them support. Give them the credit that they are due for helping us out here um at Verified Investing and being a wonderful sponsor.
Speaker A
All right, you guys have a great one. I got to get to my weekend. It is an wild week, that's for sure. Monday morning though, don't forget Monday morning 9:00 a.m. right here live. I'll be back giving you the latest trades and setups
Speaker A
and analysis on verifiedinvesting.com. Take care.
Topics:AI trade collapsetech sell-offS&P 500 supportNASDAQ 100 QQQsemiconductor stocksMicron stockCoreweaveNvidia technical analysisBroadcom stockoil price surge
