⚠️ Опасно ли сейчас в России? Трезвый разбор

I believe it's better not to be friends with the state, but rather to keep a very smart distance from it. In the regions, there are no doctors, and in all likelihood, there won't be enough of them. If you meddle in politics, the state will absolutely crack down on you. In Russia, and especially in Moscow, there is the best delivery and the best services in the world. Nature in Russia is completely safe for humans. The active troublemakers have left, but they still need someone to catch and put away. Life in Russia is, all in all, not bad. Multichal. Multichal channel. This is the topic, greetings.

Multichal. Greetings. Is it dangerous in Russia? Yes, that is the topic of this episode. And I want to continue this unusual title, yes, to make it even more unusual. Is it dangerous in Russia, or is it pot odds? Ah, the expression "pot odds" comes from poker. And I will now explain what that means in simple terms. I assume you will like it. My firm opinion at my age is that poker, specifically classic Texas Hold'em—that is, what most of us mean by the word "poker"—very strongly reflects what happens in life. I always cite two games that help in life: chess and poker, but chess is logical, and a three-year-old child won't beat me. A twenty-year-old guy who plays chess poorly won't beat me, under no circumstances whatsoever. Well, perhaps only if I were drunk and couldn't think at all. Chess is logical, and a person who doesn't know how to play or plays poorly will undoubtedly lose. Even if a good player is just taking it easy.

Logic, mathematics. Poker, however, is a bit different. Poker is a game where, theoretically, a lot depends on the player, but a huge number of other circumstances plus luck also affect the outcome. That is, whether a person ends up with money or ends up a loser. Well, so poker is more like our typical life with all its surprises, both positive and negative. And I will tell you about it now. In any situation, clarity is important. Someone writes from an empty account, an unknown number calls. Who could it be? Don't guess, just check. Sherlock is a quick way to understand who you are dealing with. Send a number, a social media link, or even a photo, and you can see who it is and where they're from. Information: Plenty of it. Use it. The link is in the description.

Poker is the skill of playing. Poker is calculation. Meaning, uh, the player's preparation in a mathematical sense, that is, knowing the probabilities. Meaning, if there are so many cards left in the deck, these specific cards have been dealt, the probability that the opponent has this or that, and what will come out next. So the person is calculating it instantly. It's like a spreadsheet in their head. And poker. Many attribute a third to luck, but I can't provide an exact percentage here. I'll just agree for now with the opinion that poker is one-third luck. Meaning when very little depends on the player. Well, they can do everything right but still lose a specific hand. Let's assume. For example, that same three-year-old child who lost to me in chess sat down to play poker, not understanding absolutely anything. They got two cards and put all their available chips and money against me. I was dealt the best possible starting cards, but I was, as they say, "run over." So I did everything right, saw good cards, and moved all my money forward too. But in the showdown, their bad cards unexpectedly turned out to be the best because the dealer dealt three other cards that completely changed the situation. So you did everything right, you did everything correctly, but you lost that particular hand. The probability of this is small. Well, say, about one or two percent in this specific situation, when everything is done blindly. But it exists. Therefore, in order for me to talk about the main topic, whether it is dangerous to live in Russia, and to draw analogies from the game of poker, I will briefly give the basic rules of poker for the viewers. Just the basics for those who have never played. At the start of the game, two cards are dealt. Each player is given two cards. There can be two players. Well, this game is called Heads-up, it's one-on-one, but there could be three or five. A classic poker table holds up to 11 people. Yes, there are usually 10 marked boxes, but dealers, at least in my establishment, would seat up to 11 people at a table.

But there can be several tables. Accordingly, there can be three, four, or five tables in the room. So there can be 50 players. Poker games differ from one another; there are two types. There is a cash game, where players at the table play against each other for a specific amount of money. And there is tournament poker, where they play for a certain number of hours, and then the so-called blinds, or mandatory bets, keep rising and rising. The chips that the players bought are, as it were, slowly devalued, forcing players to play more actively and knock each other out. And if, for example, 50 people entered a tournament, they start knocking each other out. Meaning a player runs out of chips, and according to tournament rules, they cannot buy any more. And eventually, a final table is formed, and then at the final table, a winner emerges who takes the prize pool. I mean, for example, 50 people joined, each chipping in 1,000 rubles. That's 50,000, where 10,000 goes to the house as a so-called rake, and the initial 40,000 goes into the prize pool. They play, and they play, and they play. A person loses another 1,000 rubles. They buy more chips. It's usually assumed that a person paid 1,000 to enter, bought chips once or twice, and can buy more during the break. So, statistically, an average player in such a tournament, after entering for 1,000, ends up spending three. Some of them spend 10, some spend just one, but on average it comes out to three. So the prize pool ends up being 150,000 to 200,000. The establishment takes about 20% for itself. That covers the dealers' wages. It covers the servers who bring the free tea. And it’s also profit. But, of course, the goal of the house—whether you call it an illegal or legal one, like in Sochi, in poker clubs, in Montenegro, or anywhere else—is for people to stay and play cash games after the tournament, meaning for real money. Not a tournament that lasts a long distance of 3-5 hours, but playing for cash. What does that mean? It means that a person who lost 10,000 in the tournament wants to win it back in a cash game. And the person who took first place in the tournament and got the main prize, the second place also a nice chunk, third, sometimes fifth or seventh—there are several prize places. They sit down to play cash games with their winnings to try and increase them. Well, and quite often they end up losing it. So, to continue, there are offline poker venues where up to a few dozen, or sometimes up to 100 players, can gather. And then there’s the internet, where 10,000 people, or even more than 10,000, can take part in a tournament on poker sites. And many such tournaments can run simultaneously. So poker is multifaceted and very diverse. But the rules are the same everywhere: first, you are dealt two cards. Those are your two cards. And then, during the game, three more cards are dealt to what is called the table, or the flop, which are considered common to all players at that table.

And based on the two cards you have and the three cards that are slowly dealt onto the table, various combinations are formed. Depending on how many people are at the table—2, 5, 10—or if it’s a long game or a strategic tournament, a person builds their tactics, just like in real life. You were born in a Siberian village and want to make your way in the world. One tactic of behavior, starting from kindergarten, school, going to the draft board, choosing a university, tutors, selling the last cow so you are taught something that gets you admitted for free. Let's say you sold the cow and lost 100,000 rubles.

circumstances whatsoever. Well, perhaps only if I were drunk and couldn't think at all. Chess is logical, and a person who doesn't know how to play or plays poorly will undoubtedly lose. Even if a good player is just taking it easy.

Logic, mathematics. Poker, however, is a bit different. Poker is a game where, theoretically, a lot depends on the player, but a huge number of other circumstances plus luck also affect the outcome. That is, whether a person ends up with money or ends up a loser. Well,

so poker is more like our typical life with all its surprises, both positive and negative. And I will tell you about it now. In any situation, clarity is important. Someone writes from an empty account, an unknown number calls. Who

could it be? Don't guess, just check. Sherlock is a quick way to understand who you are dealing with. Send a number , a social media link, or even a photo, and you can see who it is and where

they're from. Information: Plenty of it . Use it. The link is in the description. Poker is the skill of playing. Poker is calculation. Meaning, uh, the player's preparation in a mathematical sense, that is, knowing the probabilities. Meaning, if there

are so many cards left in the deck, these specific cards have been dealt, the probability that the opponent has this or that, and what will come out next. So the person is calculating it instantly. It's like a spreadsheet in

their head. And poker. Many attribute a third to luck, but I can't provide an exact percentage here. I'll just agree for now with the opinion that poker is one-third luck. Meaning when very little depends on the player. Well,

they can do everything right but still lose a specific hand. Let's assume. For example, that same three-year-old child who lost to me in chess sat down to play poker, not understanding absolutely anything. They got two cards and put all their available chips and

money against me. I was dealt the best possible starting cards, but I was, as they say, "run over." So I did everything right, saw good cards, and moved all my money forward too. But in the showdown, their bad cards

unexpectedly turned out to be the best because the dealer dealt three other cards that completely changed the situation. So you did everything right, you did everything correctly, but you lost that particular hand. The probability of this is small. Well, say

, about one or two percent in this specific situation, when everything is done blindly. But it exists. Therefore, in order for me to talk about the main topic, whether it is dangerous to live in Russia, and to draw analogies from

the game of poker, I will briefly give the basic rules of poker for the viewers. Just the basics for those who have never played. At the start of the game, two cards are dealt. Each player is given two cards. There can be two

players. Well, this game is called Heads-up, it's one-on-one, but there could be three or five. A classic poker table holds up to 11 people. Yes, there are usually 10 marked boxes, but dealers, at least in my establishment, would seat up to 11 people at a table.

But there can be several tables. Accordingly, there can be three, four, or five tables in the room. So there can be 50 players. Poker games differ from one another; there are two types.

There is a cash game, where players at the table play against each other for a specific amount of money. And there is tournament poker, where they play for a certain number of hours, and then the so-called blinds, or mandatory bets,

keep rising and rising. The chips that the players bought are, as it were, slowly devalued, forcing players to play more actively and knock each other out. And if, for example, 50 people entered a tournament, they start knocking each other out. Meaning a

player runs out of chips, and according to tournament rules, they cannot buy any more. And eventually, a final table is formed, and then at the final table, a winner emerges who takes the prize pool. I mean, for example, 50 people

joined, each chipping in 1,000 rubles. That's 50,000, where 10,000 goes to the house as a so-called rake, and the initial 40,000 goes into the prize pool . They play, and they play, and they play. A person loses another 1,000

rubles. They buy more chips. It's usually assumed that a person paid 1,000 to enter, bought chips once or twice, and can buy more during the break. So, statistically, an average player in such a tournament, after entering for 1,000, ends up spending

three. Some of them spend 10, some spend just one, but on average it comes out to three. So the prize pool ends up being 150,000 to 200,000. The establishment takes about 20%for itself . That covers the dealers 'wages. It

covers the servers who bring the free tea. And it’s also profit. But, of course, the goal of the house—whether you call it an illegal or legal one, like in Sochi, in poker clubs, in Montenegro, or anywhere else—is for

people to stay and play cash games after the tournament, meaning for real money. Not a tournament that lasts a long distance of 3-5 hours, but playing for cash. What does that mean? It means that a person who lost 10,000 in the

tournament wants to win it back in a cash game. And the person who took first place in the tournament and got the main prize, the second place also a nice chunk, third, sometimes fifth or seventh—there are several prize

places. They sit down to play cash games with their winnings to try and increase them. Well, and quite often they end up losing it. So, to continue, there are offline poker venues where up to a few dozen, or sometimes up to 100

players, can gather. And then there’s the internet, where 10,000 people, or even more than 10,000, can take part in a tournament on poker sites. And many such tournaments can run simultaneously . So poker is multifaceted and very diverse. But the rules are the same

everywhere: first, you are dealt two cards. Those are your two cards. And then, during the game, three more cards are dealt to what is called the table, or the flop, which are considered common to all players at that table.

And based on the two cards you have and the three cards that are slowly dealt onto the table, various combinations are formed. Depending on how many people are at the table—2, 5, 10—or if it’s a long game or a strategic

tournament, a person builds their tactics, just like in real life. You were born in a Siberian village and want to make your way in the world. One tactic of behavior, starting from kindergarten, school, going to the draft board, choosing a university,

tutors, selling the last cow so you are taught something that gets you admitted for free. Let's say you sold the cow and lost 100,000 rubles. You got into a free university in, say, Krasnoyarsk and saved a million on your total

education. So, it's choosing a tactic depending on the conditions, because all of this, as I said, poker, it mimics life very well, there's constant adjustment. And an important point, in poker there are always so-called blinds for two players. This is a mandatory

bet. It moves in turns from one player to another. Whether it's in a tournament where you first play for plastic money that you bought—on one hand, plastic chips, but in reality, it's just plastic for now. Once you win

the tournament, they'll exchange it for money. Or playing for real money in a cash game. So, it is a mandatory bet.

Well, for example, if you enter the game with, say, 5,000 rubles. Then the blinds would be, for example, 50-100.

So, each time you put up 100 rubles. Then 50, then you wait for your turn until the round of players passes. And again, you usually have a stack, that is, the number of chips, for example, 10,000 or 5,000, and the blinds are 100

. So, they are small, but it is a bet; if you don't enter the game with it, you lose it. So, it's a loss.

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And now let's go. Analogies in life. If you want to be a successful player, you learn poker math, meaning you prepare well theoretically—let's call that education—and you get some practice; sitting at the table, you watch how different players behave. This is like

life skills: knowing how to communicate , being part of a group, and solving various issues and problems. If you are a slightly prepared person, you already know that to sit down and play poker with your knowledge and the right

approach, you need to have the right bankroll. Well, that is, you should have 101 to 100. I mean, you enter the game by putting in 1,000 rubles. You need to have 99 in your pocket right here. What does all this mean? If

you're playing live and a beautiful lady is sitting in front of you dealing cards, she's called a dealer. No matter how much she looks or acts like a robot , dealing quickly: "your turn,""your turn,""your turn," dealing again, "your

turn,""your fold," and so on, she still cannot do one hand in less than 3 minutes. She is a professional. That is , she performs a maximum of 20 hands per hour. You are not limitless. And, accordingly, you might sit at a poker

table for, say, 5 hours. So, in fact, you will have 100 hands in 5 hours of play. 5 hours of play. Sit for 10 hours of play, and you'll have 200 hands. If you play online, you have several poker

tables open at once, the hands go much faster, and accordingly, in that same hour, you have many more opportunities to enter the pot, not enter, or win.

Well, that is, there won't be 20, but, for example, 50, 100, or even 200, depending on your professionalism. The number of hands per hour. Accordingly, if you play correctly and enter with the necessary bankroll, in real life, it might not be enough. There are too

few hands. Over the long run on the internet, where there are many hands and you play at many tables, proper behavior ultimately yields a profit.

Simply because of the huge number of correct and incorrect decisions that other players make. And if you, in principle, do everything correctly according to theory, you will definitely be left with a small profit, a percent or two, and this will all

grow, grow, and grow. Life is like poker. There just aren't enough hands. That is, theoretically you are prepared , well-prepared, say, in school, you learned somewhere, you seem to be doing everything right and you entered with a bankroll, but the actual actions and

events surrounding you will still be too few. And that is why the word "luck " starts to play a big role. Just specific luck and specifically the circumstances that surround you. I repeat, if there are many hands on the

internet and you do everything correctly, you will most likely be in the black. I had a dealer friend who didn't win, well, he didn't win specifically in online poker. He was an average-quality player, he didn't win, but he didn't lose either. What does

that mean? that by participating in a large number of hands, win or lose, the online establishment takes what is called a rake, that is, the house's profit, where it’s a percent, two, three, or five, it doesn't matter.

Meaning, from every hand, the house takes its share, and takes, and takes, and this dealer neither wins nor loses.

But the house needs such a person to exist, to ensure they are always playing. And, accordingly, they would return what is called rakeback to him.

Well, basically, a significant portion of those bets placed, those percentages given to the house, were returned to him. I don’t remember the percentage, maybe 50, maybe even 90, I don't remember. But it was quite enough for him to earn, let's say, 100,000 rubles

in our money from dealing. And another 100,000 to 200,000 would come to him at night, in his free time, from the game, from the non-winning game, just from the playing itself. Once again, analogies with life. Poker, which I’ve observed in real life, very

often correlates with life situations that are happening in general. And now, based on what I’m sharing about poker , luck, and dangers in Russia, I will give you a few more numbers to understand how the world actually looks

. The absolute best cards in poker at the start of the game. Two aces, so-called two bullets. When you have two aces in the deck, how many cards do we have? 52. So, accordingly, out of 52 cards, four of them are aces. And the

probability that you get one ace is one out of four, which is out of 4 and 52.

That is, 4 out of 52. You need at least one of the four to appear out of these 52 cards. That probability is 4 to 52.

So, your first ace has arrived. And for the second ace to arrive, accordingly, we calculate 3 to 51. Well, the percentage that you will be dealt two aces out of 52 cards is 0.45%, a little less than half a percent. And this

means that in one hand, since they deal 20 hands per hour, in one hand out of 220, you will get two aces before the flop, that is, before the game. Meaning the initially best combination. If your YouTube loads every other time. And

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for about 11 hours on average to get two aces. Now let's talk about luck. So , you finally get two aces. But your opponent gets a weak hand, like a 2-7 or 2-8. Which is considered trash, and any decent player would fold

immediately. Meaning the player doesn't enter the pot. That’s why there are situations where you have great cards —two aces, ace-king, two kings—but your opponent has nothing. Consequently , just because you get something good once every 222 hands, you haven't won

anything at all. So the essence of luck is that you need not only for the hand to come but also for the opportunity to capitalize on it. And most importantly: if you put on a crown, or as they say,

get full of yourself, and decide that with two aces you are the king, and you let a situation in poker develop where you're sitting with 10 people and you let everyone into the pot—meaning everyone has two cards, so 20 cards are

dealt, and the three cards are laid out . The probability of combinations that can beat two aces is very high. So, what was strong before, due to your poor play, or because bad luck is following you, or because some players

brazenly decided to enter with weak cards and got lucky while you didn't. Meaning you got beaten, or you even realize that others are stronger, see what's happening on the board, on the flop, and just fold those cards. So

luck in this regard is multifaceted. On one hand, you need someone else to have something to win money or chips, but on the other hand, if you let people into the pot or they decided to enter on their own and caught something—you

sat there for 10-11 hours waiting for that hand, and it was all for nothing.

So it is indeed, as I say, a third down to luck. I want to say that in movies featuring card games, like poker—for example, the scene from Casino Royale —the probability of such a scene is 1 in a million. I use the term "1 in a

million" as a figure of speech. I mean the combinations that people show are the absolute maximum. Yes, I have seen in my life that this guy has a great, super hand. He does, but to see something like that, I spent, say, 100

or 200 days at the table, right? I mean , what they show in the movies, where one person has some total garbage and the other has some total garbage, and they go all in—it’s unbelievable.

Money is won on the most basic, standard cards. It comes down precisely to the ability to understand what the opponent has and what the pot odds are.

I’m wrapping up the poker theme because it’s in my title. If there are 10 people at the table, you have 100,000 in cash, and you started with a thousand. So, you’re being totally correct, totally right. I mean, you’re doing everything right. And

the only thing working against you is time. That is, if you realize you’ll be sitting for 5 hours and there are 100 hands ahead, that’s one thing. If you realize that you’ll come back tomorrow, the players will gather the

day after, and then again, and again, so there will be many hands, then what I’m saying now really works. And this is very applicable to life. So, what are pot odds? You have bad cards, but it so happens that you are in a

position at the table where you’ve been given either a chance to see the flop or to figure out roughly what cards the other players have. Even though the players' cards are face down , you can tell by their behavior. A guy

looks, sits there, thinking, and you realize he’s what’s called "tight," meaning he’s careful. He throws away all kinds of garbage. If he’s thinking, he has something; he bluffs, for example, once every 100 days, meaning he’s a careful player. And so

, when you analyze all the players— again, just like in life, analyzing all the people—you roughly understand that the dealer has dealt everyone some hands or potential hands right now, and the others have strong ones, while you have absolute junk. But you have

100,000, and you will definitely come back again, and again, and again. And you realize that if you enter the pot with some garbage right now, your probability of winning, for example, based on your estimates—say, 13%—is minuscule. But assuming you see that in

ten hands where your probability of winning is 13%, you always make the exact same move, and there are 10 people at the table, then in the long run, you’ll still end up with a certain percentage of profit. You’ll

lose today, you’ll lose tomorrow, and the next day. But if you mathematically see that you have an advantage, you enter the pot. That is exactly the expression "pot odds." You might be weaker, but the probability of winning over the long run, if life keeps going

this way, and tomorrow there's poker, and players arrive, and you have 100,000, and you make the same move.

After participating in 10 hands, your bankroll will no longer be 100,000 rubles. At first it will drop, say, to 95, to 90, but then you will have 103 or 104. You acted correctly. If you are a lucky player in that specific moment,

you won't have a drop to 90. You will win on the first or second hand, causing anger among the people next to you who entered with good cards, and you beat them like that. But that, I repeat, is called pot odds. And I apply

this expression to our Russian reality, specifically to myself. When you analyze the surrounding reality, considering the pros, cons, and what the consequences of any action will be.

Meaning, sometimes I can win, sometimes lose, and sometimes they might kill me. I'm speaking figuratively. So you calculate, and I believe it is right to calculate, once again using this expression unusual for most of you: pot odds. When people write to me in the

comments—I had one instance when I was analyzing a situation and used the term "pot odds"—one person writes: " I've never seen someone explain it so competently: 'I am a poker player myself.'" And a second one writes right away: "I'm a poker player, what kind of

nonsense did he spew?" Two people, two opinions. Well, as the great poet said, accept praise and slander with indifference and do not dispute the fool. So I don't react to it. I want to say that they often write in the

comments: "Take off the mask, what are you afraid of? Invite a Ukrainian soldier for an interview, tell us about such and such events." It's just that those people who have already talked about this are now agents and terrorists, and they are often abroad.

You don't do something like that based on pot odds. That is called suicide, honestly, in the long run. So, if today I talk about an event, say, from the spring of '22 in certain cities. some view of my own, even though I wasn't

there, but in principle I'll express some guesses, by next spring I'll get hit for it. So that is called suicide, not pot odds. Pot odds means calculating a situation sensibly based on some reasonable numbers. So, when a significant number of people in the

comments suggest committing a suicidal, impractical act, well, even if 100 people tell me: "Hero, well done, you've realized we were right or wrong about something," it doesn't make any difference to me. That leads to handcuffs, prison, and thousands spent

on a lawyer in half a year. And those people who praised me will already be watching another speaker, egging him on to do something else. As I said, it doesn't make any difference to me.

I’m the one who will specifically suffer if I do something obviously stupid. So, here we are in Russia, autumn of '26, and based on the odds— what I see as "player one"—nature; as "another" player—the people around me ; the next player—services; the next

—the state; and then the state with all its dangers, plus healthcare and all those people. I mentally process the people, the facts, and everything I see to assess the situation right now, in autumn 2026. What is the right way

to act or not to act? Let’s start from the beginning. Nature in Russia is absolutely safe for humans. Trouble comes in the form of ticks. Trouble comes in the form of bears showing up once every 10 years, or a small number

of snakes. I mean, if you go into the woods for mushrooms, you put on boots, and that’s often your only safety measure. For some reason, it seems to me that if you go into the jungle, you look around a lot more at where

you’re stepping. And if you’ve landed in Australia, that’s just a wonderful continent. I mean, all the most poisonous things on Earth have, for some reason, gathered on that huge island. Russia has nature that is quite good for humans. There are no tornadoes

, no constant flooding, rockfalls, or earthquakes. Everything is calm and predictable—let’s note down these observations. Moving on to people. I observe people in Siberia. I observe people in the European part. I observe people in Moscow. Ladies and gentlemen,

people are predictable. They look like Europeans. The majority are predictable . Their actions are understandable, and their motivations are clear. The chance that someone will run up behind me on the street and stab me with a knife, a

rock, or something else. It’s practically zero. So you walk out onto the street relaxed; you get on a bus, the subway, or drive a car, all relaxed . Well, if you've grown up in the country, right, specifically you, then

the people are familiar to you. Next are the services, a significant part of commercial services—commercial ones.

Well, for example, delivery. People who stayed with me from abroad, relatives, very close relatives, sincerely believe that in Russia, and especially in Moscow, there is the best delivery in the world, the best services, taxis, delivery, and everything else. Before

the war, this also included the internet. It did, and maybe it will again. Well, in fact, the situation is that the services are good. Services that have no commercial component, for example, housing or state services, are tolerable. In a significant number of

cities, you can come to a multifunctional center and solve a bunch of paperwork problems without bureaucracy. That is what it is. I don’t love the state, but there are some pluses to Gosuslugi; today I broke a rule and 3 hours later. I’m lying,

9 hours later. Just recently, a car fine came through. At 8:00 AM, I violated the speed limit. At 5:00 PM, the fine came through. Gosuslugi, email , paid, forgot. Well, in fact, I did violate it. So it’s instantaneous.

Services, you know the language, the SIM card is linked to you, the performance of many services is good.

Many, many, not all, but in principle, it's tolerable. The state. I believe it's better not to be friends with the state. It is best to distance yourself from it very skillfully, look at it indifferently from above, and perceive

it like a bear that you should stay away from, but at the same time know its habits as well as possible. Do you know the habits of a bear in the taiga?

There is this neighbor living there. He is dangerous. If you turn your back, he might attack. So, you don’t want to be constantly tense. This means you take certain measures so that he doesn’t attack when your back is

turned. I don’t know what kind. I’m just saying, in aggregate. So, this dangerous neighbor is living there. The state, it is a bear. Adapt, observe, know its habits, understand that for half a year, let's say, it sleeps.

That's it, do whatever you want. If you want, dance over the den, it’s sleeping. Well, for example, it’s busy with something else and doesn’t pay attention to the citizens. But right now, for example, it has.

Accordingly, you walk around, and you have some kind of sound and light gadget to scare the bear away. Moving on to smaller, private matters. In Siberia, one family had a minor misfortune that could grow into something more serious. A teenage child

was diagnosed with an incurable disease . A simple, elementary operation was performed, and afterward, the person didn’t get better, and it just wouldn't go away. Back to the hospital, not knowing what it was. Discharged from the hospital, it’s not going

away, it’s not going away. As a result, they were sent to Moscow. This is realistic in our country. Any sick person can undergo an examination in Moscow for free, yes, you spend money on tickets to Moscow. Within, I am not

afraid to use the word, 30 minutes they gave a diagnosis that this young man had not been able to get for several months in Siberia—they simply couldn't diagnose him. What he was suffering from was unclear. Sending this young man off, his parents

anticipated a bad outcome, expecting that this bad diagnosis would be announced. As a result, what is an incurable disease? For most of you, this means a person is just fading away , fading away. In this case, with an

incurable disease, doctors currently don't know how to stop it completely, but with medication, you can trick it.

Meaning, you can live with it for a long time. Well, maybe not 80 years, but you'll live to be 60. And by then, God willing, Western doctors will come up with some kind of thing that will cure it. But in fact, you have the

situation in your region right before your eyes. First, they didn't diagnose you, and second. The doctors there end up being poor, there are problems with drug funding, you'll have to buy them at your own expense. And fundamentally, you have no trust. This all means that,

again, if you want to live a higher quality of life, if you want your child who has this condition to also live a decent life, you need to make a decision. The decision is simple. You need to move to where there is medical

care. High-quality care. That is Moscow . Leave everything there and move. What does "leave everything" mean? If you are sick right now and you have a week to live. Yes, leaving when you have a week and the person dies is one thing.

Here, you can slowly, calmly, and methodically prepare for the move and relocate. Medical care is better in Moscow. Life has shown that there are no doctors in the regions, and there likely won't be enough of them. Those young specialists who arrive for, say,

a house in the country or the "rural doctor for a million" program—that, generally speaking, is not the case here. So, I repeat, salvation is the responsibility of those who need to be saved. You must look at the situation

sensibly. If you are a healthy person, live wherever you want. If you have some kind of ailment, it is better to stay near Moscow. If you have an illness that requires paying a lot every month for medication or a certain

lifestyle. You are, without a doubt, going to Moscow. If you are a fool and delay the situation, moving, for example, after a few years, well, you will live less; it is not worth dragging it out. So, once again, it is

like in poker. Assess the situation, count your cards, and go. That's how things turned out. On one hand, you were unlucky to have a sick child, but on the other hand, look at it from another perspective: you are lucky. You

didn't want it, but you end up in Moscow, you have some other chance to live your life differently. What if the Siberian hinterlands aren't for you?

What if life gave you an opportunity to try? Everywhere you look, you have to look for other pluses.

About a year and a half ago, a close, good friend of mine was practically dying on a football field. He had gained a little weight and had been traveling all day before that. I mean, he came to play like a weary little

bear. His heart seized up. I had some medical training, but that was more about blood, and here his heart was the problem. We didn't know what to do.

Naturally, what does a normal person do ? Calls an ambulance. The result is, on one hand, calling an ambulance. Second, nobody wants to take the independent decision to load him into a car and drive to the ER. Which is 5 minutes

away. Well, because you know that the word "emergency" means emergency. And third, you pour water on the person as he asks. So you douse him with bottles, you pour, and after 10-15 minutes he revived, stopped that kind of breathing

, and came to. I mean, he practically came back from the other side. Call to the ambulance. What about the call? No ambulance has been assigned yet. How can you, you stinking jerks, tell a person to wait when they are doing

better? And it just became interesting. How will it end? The man revived. That was it, unfortunately, the game was over, but when a person is dying, what game? We are already standing there, chatting, like, lose some weight. I

mean, come on, it's still too early, you need to live. An hour. Call the ambulance. Where is the ambulance? No ambulance has been assigned, they are on other calls. That's it. Now look, in the place where I was, the situation

with the ambulance service is perfectly clear to me. When I called, at my request, a younger age was initially stated for, uh, let’s call him the patient. To an old woman who is 80, and to a young eighteen-year-old guy, there

is still an opinion that the ambulance response time is different. An 80- year-old grandma has lived her life, an eighteen-year-old guy, you have to save him urgently. I don’t know if it’s related to humanity or reporting, but such an opinion exists. So, the result.

I know that in the city where it all happened, the ambulance never came. Accordingly, it won't come at all. What does it mean that the ambulance didn't come? It means the head of that institution is either incompetent, or

people don't want to work there, and most likely both. The question is: is it safe to be in that region? Do you have a minimal amount of risks, good health—I mean, what's the probability that something will fall on you, cut

you, or you’ll get poisoned? That's one conversation. If you realize that you have three or four critical situations ahead of you in life—for you or your relatives—there’s no reason for you to be in that region.

Will the situation be fixed? Hm, and why would it be? And for what earthly reason? And who was punished because a very good person almost died? No one.

Accordingly, based on the pot odds, a normal person who knows this situation shouldn't see any prospects for staying in that region. There’s nothing to do there. Again, I’m saying you need to go to Moscow. Well, it’s an obvious

thing. The same goes for the police. Many people for a very, very long time don’t bother calling 112 to report a hooligan who is beating them or something else. And when they do try to contact them, they suddenly realize

they can’t get through. This is a widespread issue, but I assure you, it’s easier to get through in Moscow.

Accordingly, if you live in situations where you need to call the police three or four times in your life, and it’s not critical and doesn't threaten your life. Or maybe it happened that you got punched, there’s no major damage, and

the hooligan has already left. So, should you call the police? Go there yourself, I don't know, file a report if you want. But the point is, if there’s nothing critical, you also have to calculate that. Does it make

sense for you to move to a region where law enforcement is fine, or should you live in this one and assume that three or four times in your life, maybe five, or if you're unlucky, ten, you will suffer. Well, the main thing is not to

get killed. You calculate all of that too. Many people now assume that some former fighters will come—some of whom will return from the front, and before that from prisons—and they’ll show us who’s boss. Few such fighters will return to Moscow,

but many such fighters will return to Abakan. If you see danger, think. If you see danger but it’s exaggerated, think as well. Again, like in poker, you calculate everything and come to an opinion on whether it’s dangerous to

live in Russia and in a specific city or not. I was recently in Nizhny Novgorod, stopped by for a few days.

What did I see? Four poker establishments are operating openly. My acquaintances in Nizhny Novgorod went there. I mean, there are four establishments, and as far as I understand, they’ve picked up on the experience from Moscow, where such places operate. And they decided that

if they make everything look clean on paper, like, "we don't take money, no, no, no, we just play poker for chips." Here are the contracts, every player is informed. On the other hand, you have to rent space, pay the dealers, and buy

equipment. I mean, you’re not an altruist. Imagine you’re a poker altruist. Your wife will kick you out of the house; bring home the money.

You’re a man, you need to earn; your mom will kick you out for eating her food. Why live on your mom’s pension?

Accordingly, poker is a commercial project. You can try to convince the cops all you want that this is just poker, no money involved, show them your papers and agreements—it’s all nonsense to them. They’re just not focused on you yet. Have fun while you

can, keep growing. There isn't any big money there. Right now, there are actually four such establishments in a city of a million people. To my surprise, I think these people are just fearless. In the long run, under the

current state, they will eventually get busted. Most likely, one establishment will get busted first. If the other three are smart enough, they’ll manage to close down in time. So, someone will get lucky, and someone won’t. In Moscow, they don’t touch

places like that. Apparently, for some reason, either there are enough other slot machine halls, or the local police chief is just like that. But Moscow is a separate state, a different story. I wouldn't use it as a benchmark. I mean,

taking the Moscow experience and applying it to the regions. While I was in Nizhny Novgorod, I saw a line for gas. I was driving, it happens. I thought, "Wow, let me count them." I started counting. But you can’t

exactly drive carefully and count at the same time. One, two, three. You just count in tens, like, 10, 20. I counted 190 cars in one place. That’s a hell of a lot, right? Well, let’s assume 3 to 5 minutes per car. You pull

up, put the nozzle in, wait in line, pay, and so on. Seems like a lot. I pull up to the station and see there are, let's see, eight pumps. You can pull up from both sides, so 16. 190

divided by 16. So it turns out that, on average, each car in line has about 10, 11, or 12 cars ahead of it. So, most likely, they’ll get refueled within an hour. But whether there’s enough gas to go around is another

conversation. How do you look at it and how do you count it? It depends on where you look, which gas station, and under what circumstances the cars are lined up. In Nizhny Novgorod, regarding the situation at the end of September:

what I saw was, on one hand, a nightmare, but even though I had three jerrycans with me, they were empty in my trunk, so I just drove up and filled up at a station—let’s call it a commercial one—not for 70 rubles. But

for 159. There were only five cars ahead of me. In most cases, there is an alternative. If you want to, you can just wait. I have a friend from Nizhny Novgorod, I'm in contact with him, he waited in line for 14 hours. What for?

Well, he didn't mind doing it. Or you can pay a premium, let's do the math.

On average, you drive to work, to your summer house, back and forth, about 1,000 to 1,500 km. Agreed. On average, if you take the highway, there was and is gas on the highways. So let's take strictly the city, 1,000 km. Let's

assume your car consumes 10 liters. City driving cycle. Not seven, but ten. Total 1,000 km, 10 liters, 100 liters.

And so you stand in line to fill up for 7,000 rubles. per month. Or you don't stand in line and you fill up for 16,000 rubles. per month. A 9,000 difference. You're standing in line, there are 100-200 cars in front of you,

you're saving fuel, you pull up, turn the engine off, the ones in front move, you start the engine, drive 3-5 meters, hit the brakes. In total, you have about 50-100 starts and stops. Meaning when you need to start the car, whether

it's Chinese or something else, it has a limited ignition switch lifespan. Basically, any part will eventually break. Once it breaks, you'll have to pay for the repairs. Consequently, if you stand in line 5-6 times a month, because many don't fill up with 20-30

liters, you're just wearing out your car. You wear it out by starting it, you wear it out by braking, on the braking system. The difference is 9,000 rubles. Approximately. Is it worth it?

I'm not even talking about the time. Moving on. I just, that was a comment that one can live differently. I mean, relate to life differently. On one hand , everything is lost, there's no gas, on the other hand, you paid a little

extra and there is gas. And who is right? Since you mentioned cars, the situation on the roads, we have relatively few traffic fatalities.

Driving here is safe. Well, ultimately, in terms of the ratio of cars to the population. So in that regard, the country is safe. There are just very few drunk drivers on the roads in big cities. There are just a lot of drunk

drivers in a place like Khakassia. Consequently, in Moscow, you can have a relatively small car, even though the speeds are high. In Khakassia, the car must be safe, because a drunk local might be driving, or a cow might wander

onto the road and not move. And things like that. So, depending on the region, you also have to weigh all these things . Dangerous or not dangerous. If you move on to criminal cases and look at what you're facing, essentially in

Russia you're facing two things. First, you're not accounting for criminal charges; for instance, some woman you slighted could report you, saying you messaged or wrote something, and people could file complaints against you.

Basically, you're threatened by things you don't even consider crimes. And second, you’re threatened by politics . That is, if you get into politics, the state will undoubtedly clobber you.

The experience of all those so-called foreign agents, terrorists, and extremists shows: you commit a sin today, and usually, in a month or two, things start stirring around you— there’s interest in you—and in six months they open a case and can give

you more time than for murder. The situation with Yuri D. is roughly the same, right? He does an interview in April, and by September, they brand him the ultimate scoundrel. If you are on the territory of Russia, the rules are

pretty much the same. If you speak out against the authorities somewhere. If some movement starts, the authorities give you a chance to leave from the sidelines. I mean, the rules of the game are, in general, quite clear. If

you don't pick up on the vague commotion swirling around you, in 3-4 months you'll get, uh, an arrest first, and then a year later, you'll get 8-11 years. Yet, if you killed someone, you'd get 8 years. If you said

something wrong somewhere, you'll get 8-11. Those are the rules of the game as they are understood now. If you want to have illusions, go ahead.

Accordingly, as far as I'm concerned, everything is obvious here. That's why when people ask, during an interview with someone: "Why didn't you ask that tough question?" That's exactly why I didn't. I don't want to sit in emigration with Yuri D., because maybe

he'll interview me once—I don't know in what capacity he'd take it, right? And then what? That's why you don't wake the beast while it's quiet. Before the start of the so-called SMO. The probability of getting into trouble for

nothing—that is, falling into the gears of the system and ending up in prison for some trumped-up pedophilia or a crime you didn't commit, finding yourself in citizen Kukushkin's shoes.

This Kukushkin case is very well known. They are assembling a jury for the fourth time now. Three separate juries acquitted him, but the system has latched onto him; I used to rate the odds of ending up in such a situation

at 1%. That was my opinion. Now, since everything is going to get tougher, and because a significant portion of the rebellious people have already left the country, law enforcement agencies need to meet quotas, to score points, so they are digging into even the most

dubious cases. So, the probability, uh, that they will come for you for something, it is increasing. The active troublemakers have left, but they still need to catch and imprison someone. So, accordingly, I now rate the probability of getting into a bad situation for

myself. At about three percent. And then there’s the added factor of so-called possible mobilization. I am speaking for myself and my family right now. Here, I would estimate the odds of something bad happening at about 5%. So , regarding the situation from 2021 to

the autumn of 2026, I believe that the situation in terms of danger to life in Russia has worsened by a factor of five , but in terms of the bank's odds, in my case, for my family, being here,

living here, and planning here is still much more advantageous. So, most likely , most of my relatives, well, any problems could only be due to chance.

Purely in terms of everyday life, nature, people, business opportunities, education, medical care, the odds still prevail that it's better here. So, to the direct question: is it dangerous to live in Russia? When they interview a bunch of foreign athletes playing for

football or hockey clubs, they all say in unison: "Are you kidding me? This country is a miracle." It’s magnificent. All of them as one. Find me just one out of hundreds who said anything nasty. Another thing is that

these 1-5%will never touch them. And that is why I only apply all of this to myself and my family. Therefore, I proceed from the fact that you only live once. And so that these little chances of the state grabbing hold of

you, so that these 1-5%don't work against you, you do banal, elementary things. The COVID train. They hand everyone a piece of paper where you have to write where you are coming from , where you are going, and where you

will sit in self-isolation. There were cases where people who indicated they were self-isolating at 10 Lenin Street, and then their smartphone, which they indicated on the same paper, popped up somewhere else, and those people received fines. It’s true. They were

being tracked, they were entered into the database. So, on the train, they hand out these papers, and half the people fill them out. The other half is me. Well, not the whole train, but me.

In what sense? I didn't fill it out at all. I just know how everything is set up in Russia. But in terms of control and how they would react to me just giving the cop at the entrance who is

collecting these papers a blank one. That’s it, do what you want, I didn't fill it out. And other people wrote nonsense, the wrong phone number, the wrong address. Why would they want the state to track them? I mean, I traveled

by train often during COVID, and accordingly, time after time, I would hand the cop a blank paper without filling it out. There’s a stream of people, one cop. He can’t stop the whole stream. A grim, angry look at me,

some remark. Go on through. That’s it . Those who filled everything out scrupulously, some of them suffered.

They were summoned somewhere for some reason, they could have been fined. That is, with their own hands, they gave the state info for no reason. Why am I saying this? The kids have grown up, are growing up. One was recently at

the draft board, and there’s a very detailed questionnaire there now. I tell him: "Listen, you're a smart guy, but you need to play the fool. Mom and dad's phone numbers will be listed incorrectly. Yes, he nods, right? Email

is wrong. Workplaces? I don't know. And most of your answers will be: I don't know. An imbecile, you have to give the minimum amount of info about yourself, talk about this with the friends you’re going with, and know that the

others, say 50 boys who came with you, will write it all out with their tongues sticking out. Everything correct. Well, how can they not answer if they’re asked? And by doing so, they will fully expose themselves to the draft board, and in case of any

upheavals, they’ll be the ones targeted. Here’s the phone number, parents live here, in case you’re not there. They’ll arrive at that address , there, there. To lower the 1-5%of embedded troubles, you need to try to analyze as much as possible, behave

wisely, and accordingly, nudge your loved ones toward this as well. If you’re hanging out with eighteen-year-old guys, well, say, when the kids grow up, and you’re driving a new car or even racing around town without a license, if you sit in the

back seat, you’ll most likely survive . Because when this young reckless driver wraps the car around a pole, the person sitting in the front passenger seat will most likely die. If you, my son or my daughter, haven't listened,

keep in mind that I have invested time and money in you. Are you not listening to me? Are you out of your mind? I’m speaking hypothetically. I’ve invested in you. I have the right to nag. Yes, it’s your right to sit on

the right and crash into a pole with some young jerk, but I’m doing everything necessary, like in poker.

You won't get away. A three-year-old child could be run over. I mean, this bad luck can happen, but if you do everything right, then based on the pot odds over the long run, you’ll most likely be fine; life in Russia is, in

general, not bad from the start. Moreover, it’s not bad even now. To summarize, what do you need to do to reduce the possibility of negative interference in the affairs of your social circle and yourself personally?

First, keep an eye on politics; you have to, it’s a matter of survival. Most of you have not been affected by the war. Say what you want, you haven’t been affected. Most of your loved ones haven’t been affected

either. Most of them. Moreover, for the majority of you, the war hasn’t touched you at all. Well, prices have risen, but that’s not being affected, that’s just expenses. So, keeping track of politics—take mobilization, for example. Second, keep an eye on the

enemies. Currently, Ukraine has been chosen as the enemy. What is happening over there? What countermeasures are they taking, how are they surviving, learning from others 'experiences in case things get worse here, just watching and understanding what things might be like. When people in the

comments—well, they’re trying to get likes, and I don’t mind—write:" Well, I bought canisters, a power bank, and all that stuff. There’s no mobilization there, Ukraine isn't bombing, so what am I supposed to do with all this? "" You bought peace of

mind; by spending a few tens of thousands of rubles, you bought things that, for the most part, don't spoil.

They really don't spoil, do they? And you bought peace of mind. But you can keep writing comments. I’m all for it . We’re just talking about different things. For residents of Moscow, I personally don't see any significant danger in almost anything right now.

For residents of the regions, you need to keep your ears pricked. Concluding with the last point. I categorically disagree with the remarks in my comments that in rural areas or some town, someone will definitely turn you in. Nobody gives a damn about you. Any

typical local police officer is buried up to their ears in paperwork. He will only find out that some unknown young man has settled in his territory if that young man starts acting out, lying around drunk, fighting, harassing people, or causing some kind of

incident. Otherwise, absolutely nobody cares. Accordingly, if you are no longer in a "chill" state and you don’t have 2,000–3,000 euros a month to move to, say, Serbia. Or to move to Kazakhstan, and you don’t have those 80,000 rubles that you would

need to sustain yourself in Kazakhstan. Again, I see another option. Are you feeling anxious? Well, head out to nature. The town of Abaza in Khakassia, the Abakan River flows nearby, 14,000 residents. Rent for an apartment is 10,000–12,000. Cheryomushki, a

settlement of hydro-builders in the same Khakassia. Rent for an apartment for a month is 12,000. Mountains, the Yenisei, gorgeous nature. There are hydro-builders nearby. That means the town has cafes, a coffee shop, and some sort of public. Rent is 12,000. If

there is anxiety, you can relieve that anxiety very inexpensively. My final main summary. Is it dangerous to live in Russia? No. If you watch YouTube with certain speakers who stir up fear, in a fairly short time, you’ll say: "

Yes, it's a nightmare, a real nightmare ." Well, as one person at the top once said, it's not a nightmare, a nightmare , it's just a nightmare. Therefore, I believe it is not dangerous to live in Russia, but in principle, the failure

of running into the state's meat grinder has grown from about 1%in 2021 to 5%now. And I assume escalation is possible, perhaps even up to 10%, meaning mobilization and a possible strike on the Baltics are possible. I assume that personally, in my circle

and my family, we would really consider it a danger to ourselves, probably starting from 20-25%. So there is a safety margin. Bye everyone. Risks of making quick money on the black market.

Life bets, experience taught me to be brief. I can distinguish the horse of truth. Making quick money on the black market, life bets, experience taught me to be brief, I distinguish the catch, this is a multi-channel, this is a

multi-channel, this is a multi-channel, this is a multi-channel, this is a multi-channel, this is a multi-channel, this is M-channel.