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Bitcoin Hit Resistance. Nothing Has Broken Yet.

Bitcoin faces resistance near $84K with no clear breakout yet; monthly and weekly technical levels analyzed in detail.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin is consolidating near a key resistance zone around $84K with no breakout yet.
  • Price gains have been concentrated in a few large daily moves, typical of market behavior.
  • A monthly close above 76.3K supports bullish structure, but resistance at 82.5-84.3K remains significant.
  • Time spent near resistance affects the strength of higher targets like 90K and 95K.
  • Traders should consider flexible trade management strategies and focus on higher time frame confirmations.

What the video covers

  • Bitcoin has experienced an unprecedented three-month upward climb but is currently facing resistance around the $84K level.
  • Most of Bitcoin's recent price gains are attributed to a few key days with large price movements, highlighting market volatility.
  • The monthly close above 76.3K is seen as a retest and support level, while resistance is identified between 82.5K and 84.3K.
  • Volatility has slowed down recently, causing consolidation near resistance rather than a decisive breakout.
  • The longer Bitcoin remains near current resistance, the less convincing the higher resistance levels (90K+) become.
  • A breakout above current resistance could lead to a significant rally, while a failure might see support tested at 76K.
  • Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, with some favoring riding big moves and updating invalidation levels rather than fixed targets.
  • The video emphasizes patience and the importance of higher time frame analysis in understanding Bitcoin's price action.
  • Technical analysis community rituals like monthly closes are considered important markers for trend validation.
  • The discussion includes a comparison of monthly and weekly time frames to frame potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Answers

Questions about this video

What is the current resistance level Bitcoin is facing?

Bitcoin is currently facing resistance between approximately $82.5K and $84.3K, with the market consolidating near this zone.

Why is the monthly close important in Bitcoin technical analysis?

The monthly close is considered a key event in technical analysis as it validates support or resistance levels and helps confirm the trend direction.

What trading approach is recommended given the current Bitcoin price action?

A flexible approach is recommended, where traders ride big moves and update invalidation levels rather than setting fixed targets, emphasizing patience and higher time frame analysis.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00
Speaker A
Hello and welcome to another episode of Casual Friday. I'm here with Cred: the Duck. As always, the show is brought to you by Kraken Pro.
00:07
Speaker A
Kraken is one of the longest running exchanges in crypto. They have spot, futures, perps, xStocks, all sorts of fun products.
00:17
Speaker A
So if you'd like to support the show, please sign up via the link in the description, and we'd appreciate it.
00:23
Speaker A
So, Don, we've had the monthly close. It closed above some stuff and below some other stuff, depending on where you draw your imaginary, arbitrary, hallucinated lines. Generally speaking, it's been three months of going up, which is unprecedented in Bitcoin history. I mean, obviously not the
00:42
Speaker A
case, right? But we have been climbing. I think is a fair term to use if you look at how we sort of got here and the market's trading
00:58
Speaker A
at sort of 84.5k at the moment. There have been maybe five
01:08
Speaker A
days that are responsible for all of the price action or the disproportionate
01:26
Speaker A
share of it. And this is a common thing in markets. Have you seen that study
01:35
Speaker A
that people post where it's like, "Oh, if you miss out..." Like, yeah, it's
01:47
Speaker A
crazy, right? It's along the lines of, if you miss out n number of the best
01:57
Speaker A
performing days in the market, you miss out on sort of n large percentage of
02:16
Speaker A
returns. And I think the implicit point there is that,
02:20
Speaker A
you know, don't trade, I mean, okay, that's not implicit point. But I mean, for
02:30
Speaker A
index investors, that's basically what they're saying, right? Don't try to
02:43
Speaker A
time the market, and even for more tactical traders, the idea is that,
02:56
Speaker A
like most of the time, the market does nothing. By definition, even when
03:05
Speaker A
you're in a position, most of the time, the market's going to do nothing.
03:20
Speaker A
And the small number of days are disproportionately responsible for the
03:32
Speaker A
majority of returns. And I think the daily time frame on BTC sort of shows that
03:38
Speaker A
best, right? You have the three huge days: the sort of teleport move
03:51
Speaker A
from 65 to 78, you have a range that made everyone, including
04:05
Speaker A
present company, sort of lose their minds. And then there are sort of two more
04:09
Speaker A
big impulse days off the back of that as well. Arguably one, because one
04:19
Speaker A
of them was just like the survival candle, that the range didn't break down.
04:33
Speaker A
And then there's the Monday 21st impulse that took us towards 90k,
04:46
Speaker A
but that's really it and so it's easy to get lost in, like, the...
05:00
Speaker A
The higher time frames don't show this as well in terms of how narrowly,
05:10
Speaker A
in terms of time, are the returns distributed. But the daily is always nice
05:29
Speaker A
to look at, to see, to sort of ground you. But even even if you catch,
05:32
Speaker A
let's say, a bullish rotation, what does your P&L look like day to day, and
05:39
Speaker A
like, how is that distributed? And it's a test in patience, that's for sure,
05:54
Speaker A
but here we are now, 84.5-ish K.
06:08
Speaker A
If we start from the monthly, we did have the monthly close
06:22
Speaker A
a few days ago. Again, very important religious
06:39
Speaker A
festival in the technical analysis community.
06:58
Speaker A
Indeed.
07:11
Speaker A
So the close was above 71.6, as we know, because that happened
07:31
Speaker A
even on the previous monthly close. But now that we have the full candle,
07:42
Speaker A
it sort of looks like a retest and close above, right?
07:58
Speaker A
which is nice. Because that 76.3 level is
08:14
Speaker A
sort of the last lower high swing and the top of the range,
08:19
Speaker A
and it's that weekly swing high. And there's a lot of stuff going on there and
08:33
Speaker A
we had a close above it on the impulse. But then the question was like,
08:45
Speaker A
you know, you remember all the lower high deviation stuff we sort of discussed?
08:58
Speaker A
and that is very threatened now and just doesn't seem right. After
09:14
Speaker A
we had another monthly close above, that even sort of retested the level in
09:20
Speaker A
terms of, so that's what's below us. I think you can call it 76.3, you can call
09:33
Speaker A
it 73.5 if you want to cluster out like the red candle as the structure. All
09:44
Speaker A
of that is fair game, I think, and then in terms of what's above us, it's I
09:54
Speaker A
still think it's like 80-ish K round number, and the way I've sort of shown
10:06
Speaker A
it here is the monthly. I think this is how you've done it as well.
10:14
Speaker A
It's the lowest close monthly candle, between 82.5 and
10:27
Speaker A
84.3-ish. So if you take the lower boundary, we've sort of closed above it,
10:38
Speaker A
not in a super convincing fashion, but technically we closed above it. And
10:54
Speaker A
then if you take the upper boundary, we're at resistance, basically, I
11:03
Speaker A
thought we would accelerate through this a bit quicker than we have here.
11:13
Speaker A
It is proving to be a bit of a pain in the butt. And volatility did sort
11:21
Speaker A
of slow down a bit on the daily time frame. Like this is where we're spending
11:40
Speaker A
our time, you know? We overshot it on the impulse, we dipped back down.
11:49
Speaker A
The last like week of price action, where thankfully I've
12:00
Speaker A
been absent and busy with Breakout stuff. I basically caught up
12:09
Speaker A
last night when I was back from the club, obviously, as with
12:13
Speaker A
all the Friday episodes. And I was like, Bro, where are the candle bodies?
12:21
Speaker A
So I guess with that super long, technical intro that the
12:25
Speaker A
viewers are going to get mad at me for taking over all the time. As always,
12:42
Speaker A
that's the best way to frame the question, Where are the candle bodies?
12:51
Speaker A
Don? And do you agree with the monthly time frame framing?
13:08
Speaker A
Yeah, I agree, I generally. I mean, we've
13:22
Speaker A
kind of been stuck at this monthly level a little bit, the 82 level,
13:33
Speaker A
which gives it a bit more importance than it had
13:46
Speaker A
priorly. Like, we ran into it and I was like, Oh, yeah, that's resistance.
13:54
Speaker A
We're going to struggle for a second. But, like you said, we were
14:03
Speaker A
struggling with it a little bit longer than I would have thought.
14:14
Speaker A
Which I think makes the 90k level worse.
14:26
Speaker A
Like, the longer we spend here, the more time we spend here,
14:45
Speaker A
the worse the 90 level gets, and the more important this breakout gets.
14:58
Speaker A
As in, like, if we break this level next
15:07
Speaker A
month, for example, like if we spend another 30 days here. I'm not
15:20
Speaker A
entirely convinced 90, 94k, like the level above it's gonna do anything.
15:41
Speaker A
If we just rally from here
15:47
Speaker A
94, 95 is gonna be an important level again. So kind of like,
15:59
Speaker A
it's not the end of the world that we're spending time here.
16:18
Speaker A
The more time we spend here, the less convincing
16:27
Speaker A
the resistance above us gets to me. Just because it's
16:44
Speaker A
on a high enough time frame, it's relatively close, and it just means
17:05
Speaker A
like we're consolidating here. And that breakout is going to basically be
17:21
Speaker A
the direction of the next move. As in, like, if we lose
17:36
Speaker A
84,
17:49
Speaker A
then, I mean, that would just kind of suck, and we'd kind of, like, have
18:03
Speaker A
to hope that 76 holds. And if it doesn't, then what?
18:10
Speaker A
Probably nothing good.
18:20
Speaker A
But yeah, if we, if we break out to the upside
18:37
Speaker A
then there's not really anything for me left. If we spend some time
18:51
Speaker A
here, if we don't, like, I said, if we go up this month just in a straight
19:05
Speaker A
candle, I will consider 95 as strong resistance.
19:17
Speaker A
Like that whole block, that whole December block of 2024
19:31
Speaker A
that's kind of like the resistance that I have above it. That's gonna
19:41
Speaker A
become important later down the line, depending on how we get there.
19:59
Speaker A
Yeah, I was going to ask, so yeah, it's the highest close before the
20:09
Speaker A
breakdown, essentially, right as sort of 92–94. And the argument
20:21
Speaker A
is like, if we're slowing down here, plus this is monthly versus that is
20:26
Speaker A
weekly. The breakout here will likely cascade or snowball into
20:38
Speaker A
crashing through 92–94, or at the very least, like this seems more like
20:54
Speaker A
the real test, as opposed to 92–94, or at the very least
21:09
Speaker A
Yeah, it's.
21:14
Speaker A
Cred: and then the most hands-off version is that you set Cred: those and then you just like, disappear into a tomb Cred: and then you come back at some point to see the outcome of the trade.
21:24
Speaker A
Cred: and I think that logic is sort of spilled over to other trading systems Cred: that don't presuppose that type of trade management, like a fixed, static Cred: target. And there are a lot of very legitimate trading systems, and in fact,
21:35
Speaker A
Cred: in fact, they only work because they don't have a fixed target. The idea here Cred: is like, I want big moves, I'm going to ride these moves for as long as I can.
21:42
Speaker A
Cred: And instead of like, choosing when to close. As Cred: the market's going up or the level of resistance, I'm just going to update my Cred: invalidation and the market's going to take me out. And so again, there's no
21:53
Speaker A
Cred: free lunch. So the pros of that approach is that, if you're right, Cred: you're actually holding through resistance levels as opposed to closing.
22:01
Speaker A
Cred: So they actually unlock the larger magnitude moves. But the cons are, Cred: sometimes you will have a level of resistance. You're like, Well, Cred: my system told me, you know, I'm trailed, I'm good, let's see what Cred: happens. It does look a bit fishy, but hey, the system's a system and then
22:15
Speaker A
Cred: it turns around and you feel like an absolute arsehole for not managing it.
22:19
Speaker A
Cred: But that's part of the game, to be honest. DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: so I kind of take that approach to this chart. I think, like this is a level Cred: of resistance, it's. clearly causing some slowdown and being a pain in the ass.
22:31
Speaker A
Cred: But given the shape of the setup, that is high time frame, sort of monthly Cred: to bigger monthly. This is one where I'd rather get sort of trailed out, and Cred: at this point there's, even with my shitty entry, there's a decent amount of
22:44
Speaker A
Cred: trailing to be done. Like, I'd rather get trailed out than, you know, sit DonAlt: I.
22:48
Speaker A
Cred: here and look at these daily candles and lose my mind over them. But your Cred: mileage may vary, so that that's the long and short of it there, yeah.
22:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: Generally think, and this is just my personal opinion, DonAlt: but. But I think the trading style of setting DonAlt: your stop loss, taking your entry, having a target and DonAlt: just sticking with it is probably better than the one that over-manages.
23:12
Speaker A
DonAlt: If you have to pick one or the other, DonAlt: as in, someone that constantly manages it and just constantly gets DonAlt: in and out of the trade because of this and that, I think that's worse.
23:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: That's going to cost you more just because the fees are going to basically DonAlt: take you out worse. On the other side, like, the DonAlt: fees are not going to be as big of a problem, but you're losing a little bit
23:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: of agency. But obviously something in the middle, DonAlt: as always, is the best way to go about it, in my opinion.
23:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: but that is something that everyone has to kind of figure DonAlt: out themselves. I've seen people be successful with kind of taking entries DonAlt: and then bailing on the position 10 minutes after DonAlt: and vice versa, so depends, yeah.
24:05
Speaker A
Cred: For sure especially if you're just starting out, like, I Cred: think a useful way to think about it is: trade management is taking trades as Cred: dumb as that sounds, and then should you be trading more within a single
24:20
Speaker A
Cred: trade? I mean, maybe, but maybe not. I'd rather people take, take more Cred: individual, smaller trades on lower time frames when they're learning, rather Cred: than taking sort of one trade and trying to manage it. Like at every single
24:33
Speaker A
Cred: turn, those sound the same, but they are quite different. Like, there's Cred: the whole thing of like, you need to learn the market, right? Which is true to Cred: a large extent, but like, there's a difference between. I'm going
24:45
Speaker A
Cred: to take multiple distinct trades on lower time frames. Just sort of learn some Cred: shit and see how the market acts and and feels. And you Cred: know how, how quickly and nimbly can I enter and exit, and what does market
24:57
Speaker A
Cred: impact look like? If anything, etc? Versus Hey, I'm in a swing trade, but I'm Cred: going to take like 20 intermediate trades on that same idea. Like opening, Cred: closing and every resistance, Oh my god, the resistance got flipped. Oh no, it
25:08
Speaker A
Cred: was a failed breakout. I've closed it again, never mind, we've reclaimed it, Cred: I'm long again. It's like, Bro, if you've done nothing, you'd be better off.
25:15
Speaker A
Cred: and you know, trading obviously comes with fees as well, and then that's Cred: a that's a part that's generally underappreciated. Like if you have a very Cred: aggressive method of trade management, that actually becomes Cred: quite expensive, You need to have like, sort of by definition, more edge and
25:32
Speaker A
Cred: or alpha to constantly be managing trades as opposed to Cred: letting them run, or just sort of trailing and so on, and so forth.
25:40
Speaker A
Cred: In any case, long story short, that's BTC. We've hit some stuff, Cred: it hasn't broken out yet, but it hasn't broken any support yet either.
25:49
Speaker A
Cred: So this is a bit of a churny zone, Cred: not the best for fresh positioning, I think the only way in which case it's Cred: defensible for fresh positioning is if you're just like, actually bearish, Cred: right? Like, if you're high time frame bearish and you see this whole thing
26:04
Speaker A
Cred: as like a big sham, then this is the setup. Essentially, essentially that, Cred: you know, we came into 80K. We've overshot that, but Cred: that overshoot is just to test the sort of real high time frame resistance.
26:18
Speaker A
Cred: And then the way it's going to unfold is we end up falling below the high Cred: time frame breakout point of 82K. This is basically the deviation Cred: or the failed breakout portion, and then collapse below that,
26:33
Speaker A
Cred: back inside the range and breakdown. Even saying that out loud, I think there's Cred: a similar theme here to last week that if you're high time frame bearish.
26:42
Speaker A
Cred: For those reasons, I still think the better entry is actually, once the Cred: breakdown fails, below 80K. Your risk at that point isn't that you're Cred: like above a bunch of supports, it's that you're above one support, which is
26:56
Speaker A
Cred: the monthly. But at least you've got other factors on your side. That the high Cred: time frame resistance did something, and it caused the move back inside Cred: the weekly and daily breakout. I think if you're bearish, like if you're
27:08
Speaker A
Cred: already bearish and looking for an entry, I think that entry is better than Cred: just selling into the resistance level. Even though from a price Cred: perspective, that's a better entry, obviously selling higher. But Cred: I think in terms of probability, waiting for the failed breakdown below
27:24
Speaker A
Cred: 82k is the better trigger. I don't know if you agree with that or even with Cred: the framing, but like, you know, know if you think this shit is an inflated Cred: ponzi and it's going to go down. This is a more reasonable spot to start
27:35
Speaker A
Cred: looking than most other spots we've had in this run-up. Yeah. DonAlt: I mean, it is. I still struggle, like, with the idea of like, DonAlt: I still kind of look at this. I'm like, why would you like? why would you
27:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: short this thing? I think there's probably better ways to spend your DonAlt: time like I. There's nothing that screams at me, like, hey, and it always, DonAlt: like, whenever we're at the extremes, I have something screaming at
28:00
Speaker A
DonAlt: me. like, hey, this is like, this is DonAlt: bad. I look at this. I'm like, this kind of looks fine, like, could it DonAlt: look better? Yeah, but does it scream like, Hey, I need to risk my money
28:13
Speaker A
DonAlt: shorting something that generally tends to go up, probably not like it's not DonAlt: done anything crazy, it's not crazy high, it's, it's not particularly DonAlt: bearish, it just made a new high. Like I struggle with it.
28:30
Speaker A
DonAlt: I can see, like profit taking into a level DonAlt: like this. I struggle with the short side of it.
28:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: but people can prove me wrong. Short this thing down DonAlt: I'm down to see it, but yeah, generally generally. I think the Bulls DonAlt: have still like the better setup, and I think like, even even though this is
28:51
Speaker A
DonAlt: the first proper bearish setup that you could take. I'm, I'm just not on DonAlt: board. I love being bearish, like, like, I straight up like, it's, it's one DonAlt: of my like, it's. It's more fun than most other things like being bearish.
29:06
Speaker A
DonAlt: so I like to be bearish, but I DonAlt: just don't. I just don't see it. So I'm, I'm staying away.
29:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: and like, you can, obviously, Cred: Yeah. DonAlt: and I'm not telling people not. to. Like you said it's, DonAlt: it's. It's a setup, and it's it's a multi-time frame setup too. Like we are DonAlt: technically at monthly resistance, technically at weekly resistance
29:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: the daily... Like if I was a bear, right? DonAlt: like if I was a bear and I had to set up what I would kind of wait for, DonAlt: and I think, like that's the only way I could justify it is if we push
29:46
Speaker A
DonAlt: higher again into 89–90K and then get violently smacked down. DonAlt: as in, like, we walk up this wick that we set in yesterday on the daily DonAlt: chart, walk it up. Spend some time, maybe even like two, three, four
30:02
Speaker A
DonAlt: days at 89–90K and then just reverse DonAlt: that, like full Bart that back down those three, four days, like up in DonAlt: a straight line, sideways for three days, and then down in a straight DonAlt: line. And then I could see this thing kind of like, put in, like a bigger
30:21
Speaker A
DonAlt: pullback until then. I mean, yeah, it's a setup. It's just like DonAlt: you're at the risk of just getting stopped out by a move like that. Which DonAlt: typically would happen if this was like an intermediate top, not always, but
30:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: more likely than not, if it is the top, that's kind of how it would play out.
30:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: and then I'd be I'd be happy to kind of jump on DonAlt: board. I don't know if I'm gonna gonna, if it plays out like that. But just DonAlt: past me, that's the setup that I would have looked for. like, active me to
30:56
Speaker A
DonAlt: short this thing, short the ponzi. Until then. Yeah, it's like, DonAlt: it's it's too risky for me, it would also be too risky for past me, yeah.
31:07
Speaker A
Cred: That makes sense like basically a daily time frame failed breakout Cred: on a retest of resistance, and I've drawn that out here. I use the highest DonAlt: Yeah.
31:15
Speaker A
Cred: close, but it's basically the same thing, sort of 86.6. if you use the wick, Cred: obviously it's higher. But the idea there would be another push into Cred: resistance, failed breakout, and then you're back inside the Cred: daily range in the context of a higher time frame resistance.
31:31
Speaker A
Cred: And, you know, that's a bunch of confluence, but I also agree. You make a DonAlt: Yeah.
31:34
Speaker A
Cred: very good point there, and this is part of what makes trading hard. Cred: Among many other things, is that there's a difference between sort Cred: of profit taking setups versus flip the book setups.
31:48
Speaker A
Cred: And that depends on a bunch of factors, like how much risk do you have Cred: on, where is your entry, do you have like a dominant Cred: view, etc. Have you taken any profit already? and so on, and so forth. And
31:59
Speaker A
Cred: that's what makes these decisions quite tricky, because they all interact. Cred: but I agree that in the context of a sort of multi-time Cred: frame setup, depending on how you're positioned, you don't immediately Cred: have to. Like. You know, the issue is this is framed, as you know, on
32:18
Speaker A
Cred: Twitter, as, like the way to trade. You're like, always churning and flipping Cred: your book long, short. Oh, it's a failed breakout, flip short, never mind Cred: reclaimed long, like in that earlier example. But like a lot of the time, you
32:27
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: don't have to do that, like, even if you're long and you get a better setup, Cred: you can like, reduce or rebalance your exposure, or take some profit, Cred: or do whatever else. It's not always this binary of Max long, Max short, never
32:40
Speaker A
Cred: mind Max long. And also, and I know this is like a really boring point, but Cred: it's one of the most powerful ones. Trading that way is very, very expensive, Cred: like purely from a cost of trading perspective,
32:52
Speaker A
Cred: it is very expensive to constantly churn and flip your book. Cred: And so the signals and the Cred: requirements to do so should be pretty high.
33:02
Speaker A
DonAlt: I generally like, like I, and people do ridicule, ridicule me DonAlt: for this. But like when, when the market goes up, like, I tend to just take DonAlt: profits into the move up. And then at some point I'm like, quite scaled out,
33:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: and then I'm still like, not doing anything like I'm like, okay, fair DonAlt: enough, like it's going higher, that's fine, and then it does something DonAlt: absolutely ridiculous. I'm like, Okay, this is stupid. Like at this point,
33:31
Speaker A
DonAlt: I'm happy to step in on the other side. So there's like, this kind of like I DonAlt: have my full position. The market keeps going up, going up, going up, and DonAlt: then it gets to like a almost ridiculous point where it starts selling
33:42
Speaker A
DonAlt: and then gets fully ridiculous. Where, like, I've, I'm probably like, DonAlt: mostly, if not out, all out of the market already. And then there's DonAlt: a couple, like there's a week or two or three or four where there's just no
33:56
Speaker A
DonAlt: positioning for me. But the market hasn't, like, hasn't gone down yet. DonAlt: And then I'm like, okay, at this point, like this is like we are. We are DonAlt: kind of like losing all reason here and I'm happy to kind of like,
34:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: step in and take the other side. So there's usually between my positioning, DonAlt: there's like quite a bit of time, time. And there's like, I wouldn't DonAlt: necessarily be like, hey, okay, I'm Max long and then it goes up up, up,
34:24
Speaker A
DonAlt: up up. And then I'm like, Okay, I sell everything and I'm Max short now, DonAlt: and then it just nukes. I think that's probably unlikely to happen. One DonAlt: and two probably going to put you in the wrong head space. Generally. Like,
34:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: if you, if you try to nail the absolute pico top every DonAlt: single time. Like, what happens if you miss it? Like, how do you trade then?
34:46
Speaker A
DonAlt: Because then you're like, Oh, I'm gonna do like, sell the pico top. The next DonAlt: time it pushes higher and makes like a higher high and then just it just DonAlt: doesn't and you're just sitting there, doing nothing. Watching your
34:59
Speaker A
DonAlt: entire thing, like your entire positioning reverse fully doesn't really DonAlt: make much sense. Like, I think it can happen. And and it's really nice, like DonAlt: it feels really nice, and people will call you like, God-like, and it's to
35:11
Speaker A
DonAlt: give you clout. But from a trading perspective, it: one, it's rare, and DonAlt: two, super risky going for that. It's much better to just like you buy DonAlt: something, it goes up in value and then you kind of start scaling out.
35:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: and then at some point, maybe like, way down the line DonAlt: maybe much higher than where you sold. You're like, okay, now it's actually DonAlt: just like overpriced, and people are are kind of frantic about it. And
35:40
Speaker A
DonAlt: I'm more than happy to take the other side. So I don't think those should DonAlt: necessarily be too close together. Like flipping the book. As you said, DonAlt: just I think that's dangerous, thinking it's going DonAlt: to get you in trouble in the long run. Like if you try to nail every
35:55
Speaker A
DonAlt: single top, every single bottom, like, Nah, not worth. Cred: Yeah, I agree. It kind of comes across as Twitter fairy tale trading and DonAlt: Yeah.
36:04
Speaker A
Cred: you know this: Like, if you've actually nailed a long and you think it's Cred: time to close, like all of your men— like, that's a pretty exhausting process.
36:14
Speaker A
Cred: and like, all of your mental bandwidth goes towards exiting DonAlt: Yeah, yeah. Cred: or rebalancing and then it's like a completely separate thing to be like, Cred: you know what? That same conviction that I've had for like weeks, and I've sat
36:26
Speaker A
Cred: in this position for days and weeks or whatever. Let me, just, like, casually, Cred: flip the book and run this process all over again, back to back. Essentially, Cred: it's not super realistic without, exactly without a reset. And I think you
36:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: Without a reset in between. Cred: raised a really good point along this show's favorite paradigm of no free Cred: lunch. What happens if you're wrong? You just made a ton of profit on your long Cred: trade, you've then flipped short. And then, let's say you get it wrong. Like
36:51
Speaker A
Cred: half your P&L gets erased. What within the same day, or like, within a Cred: short time frame of this big win that's gonna mentally absolutely wreck Cred: you. Like, if you trust yourself to trade, manage, and size intelligently
37:03
Speaker A
Cred: in those conditions you, you have a lot of faith in yourself. And at least Cred: I can't do that. Maybe it's a human limitation on my end, the skill issue, as Cred: some would say. But we also know, you know, the old trading adage of
37:16
Speaker A
Cred: your biggest losses often come after your biggest wins. And I think Cred: that's part of the mechanism and part of what's going on there. You've just Cred: hit a home run, you're high on your own supply, you probably think you know
37:29
Speaker A
Cred: more about the market than you do. And you're arguably justified in feeling Cred: that way because you've just nailed it. It's actually a really good time to Cred: step away, like you've done the hard part, you've realized the profit. Probably
37:39
Speaker A
Cred: the last thing you need to do is to put on more risk and trade more.
37:45
Speaker A
Cred: so I agree with that. Okay, so that's BTC. I think the DonAlt: Yeah, nah.
37:48
Speaker A
Cred: TLDR is the monthly looks good, but it's at some resistance Cred: that's kind of neither here nor there, and generally speaking, Cred: you bet in the direction of the impulse. Unless Cred: you hit like a mega resistance on a super extended move I don't
38:04
Speaker A
Cred: think we're at the mega resistance on the super extended move. personally. Cred: so I think some slowdown is [unclear].
38:09
Speaker A
DonAlt: I would say this is like, right now we're DonAlt: just like, mean, reverting, right? Like, that's all this is: like, we've had DonAlt: a massive move to the downside, we mean, reverted like almost half of it.
38:22
Speaker A
DonAlt: That's it. And like, it's not like a crazy extended move by any means.
38:28
Speaker A
DonAlt: It's literally just like we went down a lot without any sort of bounce DonAlt: and now we bounce. And then kind of the next, like the DonAlt: next move is basically gonna gonna show like, Okay, is this actually
38:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: like a full-blown reversal? But like, it's. And this is why I'm saying, DonAlt: like, hey, I don't really see the short side of things because we're not in DonAlt: a crazy spot. If you're shorting here, I think you'd probably be
38:53
Speaker A
DonAlt: like, Hey, the bear market is only halfway underway and we're gonna go to DonAlt: 40. That's kind of your mindset. Otherwise, like, I just don't get it.
39:02
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, and that larger time frame context makes makes a lot of sense, Cred: like, where do you think we are? Big picture type of thing zooming out DonAlt: Yeah, yeah.
39:11
Speaker A
Cred: sufficiently, but that's sort of the monthly the close was good, it was above Cred: 76.3, last month and sort of retested it. And now we've sort of Cred: hit the first, arguably, speed bump. And then on the weekly time frame, very
39:26
Speaker A
Cred: similar story, we've pushed into effectively the underside retest. Like the Cred: floor of the breakdown at 86k, but then at the same time, the weekly Cred: did close above 82k. This big, scary lower, high level Cred: But if you sort of look at it closely enough, nothing has happened yet,
39:43
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: right? Like we haven't had a violent rejection of 86k, we haven't fallen below Cred: the breakout point at 82k, and, at least for me, most importantly, we Cred: haven't lost the cluster at 76 to 80k. On the weekly, which
40:06
Speaker A
Cred: helpfully captures both the monthly cluster on the underside of it and Cred: the weekly breakout on the top side of it. So it's, it's one of those where Cred: the slowdown is understandable. The hesitation or even profit taking is
40:20
Speaker A
Cred: understandable because the move has been big and it's finally hit something. Cred: but nothing has broken yet. And it doesn't smell of exhaustion or Cred: overextension, at least in my view. And then Cred: the daily time frame is the daily time frame, you know, like at this point
40:35
Speaker A
Cred: with those with those candle bodies, so yeah. DonAlt: I actually don't hate it. Like the daily time frame, basically, what's DonAlt: happened on the daily time frame is like. We had this like push DonAlt: up that rescued that whole like consolidation before it.
40:49
Speaker A
DonAlt: pulled back a little and then kind DonAlt: of, like, had a breakdown on the 28th of September. Like that DonAlt: red candle where I think a few people kind of got scared.
41:01
Speaker A
DonAlt: Consolidated down there and then just full reverse DonAlt: that breakdown, and now we're kind of consolidating above the prior DonAlt: consolidation, like generally even low time frame. I look at this and we're DonAlt: kind of like, that doesn't look too bad, it's like, could look much
41:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: worse. Like, I don't really see a good reason for the daily to go down.
41:22
Speaker A
DonAlt: But yeah, if it, if it does push higher, comes DonAlt: back lower, then maybe maybe that comes around. And then we DonAlt: have like a nice, nice, bearish setup. But until then, nah, just yeah.
41:37
Speaker A
Cred: I agree, even the that's the almost odd part, right? Even the Daily hasn't Cred: reached the hypothetical, bearish stage yet in terms of actually forming Cred: a setup. And I agree with your diagnosis. I started off with the failed
41:50
Speaker A
Cred: breakouts. If you just had the daily time frame or a chart with no time frame Cred: when you were looking at this. At least what I would do is I'd probably map Cred: out 82k and I'm like, Oh, there's a lot of stuff happening at that 82k
42:01
Speaker A
Cred: level. It was the former high, we tested it. If you extend it to the left, Cred: there are some wicks there, the last low, pre-break, etc. And we're above it, Cred: like, that's it, we're above it. Cool so where would the bearish argument
42:14
Speaker A
Cred: start to take force at? Like, in a vacuum one time frame, forgetting all Cred: the high time frame context? Just in the simplest terms? It would be if this Cred: breakout fails, which would mean Dailies back below 82k. Or, as you
42:25
Speaker A
Cred: mentioned, given that we are sort of in an area of resistance, it would be Cred: another failed breakout So a push towards 86 to 87.
42:36
Speaker A
Cred: impulse that gets, as you affectionately Cred: said, violently Barted down. That would be another one Cred: where it's like, Oh, the resistance, you know, resistance is showing signs Cred: of resisting. And even then, you'd still need to contend with
42:48
Speaker A
Cred: 82k. Because you could just look at that and be like, Oh, we're just Cred: like in another consolidation, right? Which is completely possible.
42:55
Speaker A
Cred: that's basically what happened on the daily time frame. Before we went up Cred: we sort of approached the technical level. It showed some resistance. We Cred: formed the consolidation. The consolidation had a stab to the upside, Cred: stab to the downside, like it was very choppy but then it ultimately broke
43:09
Speaker A
Cred: up. So I think the bar for turning bearish on Cred: daily consolidations is higher. Because the last one we Cred: had was a trap, even though it had very similar markings Cred: to this one. As far as, Oh, we stopped accelerating, we're at resistance.
43:25
Speaker A
Cred: the breakout failed. Like it's got the same ingredients, but ultimately, on Cred: the back of news, plus the range low holding, it broke up. So Cred: I think if your argument is just the daily time frame consolidation, you should
43:35
Speaker A
Cred: sort of be strict with it in terms of what it means. Cred: And that's in a vacuum, ignoring all the other high time frame context.
43:43
Speaker A
Cred: Cool cool, cool cool Ethereum, digital gold. Cred: ETH/BTC is not a chart that I take seriously. Still, Cred: there's usually like one week every three months. I'm like, Oh my God, should Cred: I be taking ETH/BTC seriously? What's wrong with me? And then I forget it
43:57
Speaker A
Cred: and it and it drifts away. But ETH/USD is an interesting one. DonAlt: Yes.
44:01
Speaker A
Cred: funnily enough, it's got my drawings from our last episode and Cred: it's the 2.7 midpoint on the weekly time frame is basically where we're at.
44:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, yeah. Cred: and even if you don't have the 2.7 midpoint, weekly basically looks identical Cred: to BTC insofar as we've pushed into the last Cred: level before the breakdown at 2.8 flat, if you want to call it that
44:25
Speaker A
DonAlt: It, I Cred: is your thinking any different on ETH? DonAlt: mean, it just looks a little bit better than Bitcoin, like it doesn't look DonAlt: look much better to me, but I kind of like this chart a little bit better.
44:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's the same kind of setup, it's the same like you can, like, DonAlt: you can draw like some sort of resistances on the lower DonAlt: time frames here and there. But if you, if you zoom out a little bit on
44:52
Speaker A
DonAlt: ETH and go to the monthly time frame, it's kind of like, broken DonAlt: most of the things that it needed to break, like, it's it's kind of just DonAlt: above monthly resistance. And as in, like, I DonAlt: would argue, like you could box out September 24 October 24.
45:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: we're trading above that, like, no DonAlt: matter like you can. You can draw a bunch of levels DonAlt: if you want, but the cleanest ones we've kind of been trading above.
45:20
Speaker A
DonAlt: same story. In the weekly time frame, you can draw DonAlt: a bunch of levels. Like you said, the midpoint's not too bad, DonAlt: but just like it's, it's quite a constructive DonAlt: chart. Generally. Like, just like it went up a little bit, then
45:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: pumped massively retested support, walked upwards DonAlt: to resistance. Like, that's nice, and I think there is a world in which DonAlt: this just has another push. Like it did in the the DonAlt: 17th of August. Kind of candle, like that big candle that took us all the
45:55
Speaker A
DonAlt: way. from 1,880 to 2,460. DonAlt: Like that kind of move. I think DonAlt: there's a world in which you just get like a repeat.
46:09
Speaker A
DonAlt: But yeah, it's just like it's in the same spot as Bitcoin is just a little DonAlt: bit better. They are going to play out the same way anyway. Like Bitcoin goes DonAlt: up, this is gonna go up Bitcoin goes down, this is gonna go down,
46:24
Speaker A
DonAlt: ETH goes up, vice versa. Also, I think if ETH just starts breaking out DonAlt: based off of like an ETH/BTC move, it's gonna pull Bitcoin along as well.
46:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: at least short term. And so it's kind of like you can DonAlt: look at this and it's gonna make you a little bit happier than looking at DonAlt: the Bitcoin chart. I think. But it's realistically DonAlt: the same thing, like, I don't think there's much of a difference.
46:51
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, you know, I still have a lot of contempt for Cred: this mid to high 2K area, just looking at it, DonAlt: Yeah.
46:59
Speaker A
Cred: but I agree that. Certainly on the monthly, as you mentioned, if you take Cred: that cluster, view those two candles, we closed above it. Generally Cred: speaking, the impulse that we had also just looks like a break and retest.
47:13
Speaker A
Cred: and on the weekly time frame, because I hate the mid 2000s Cred: the mid to high 2000s, so much. I still think the best anchor we have Cred: is the one we spoke about the most, which is 2.3 to 2.4k. Essentially
47:27
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, yeah. Cred: that weekly high we broke above it. We spend basically a month. Consolidating Cred: there, we retested it, we pushed up. I think... I think that's Cred: the best invalidation available. Personally, I would love to...
47:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: It keeps getting better, too. I think, Cred: because we have more space. Go.
47:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: like in the yeah, like, if it, like, DonAlt: when we're trading down there. It was kind of like, that's probably DonAlt: like, not the best invalidation. But now that we have more space DonAlt: like, imagine, like a red candle that takes us to 2.2.
47:58
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, okay, that should probably not happen if this is a bullish market. DonAlt: so, like, with how it's traded now. I like 2.3 as DonAlt: an invalidation even better than I liked it last week or the week before it.
48:12
Speaker A
DonAlt: so yeah, 2.3, go-to, yeah. Cred: It's really nice when you get sort of validation of a level in that way.
48:21
Speaker A
Cred: like, when the market's dancing on it, you're like, Dude, can you just put?
48:24
Speaker A
Cred: can you just give me an impulse? So we have some breathing room here, please, Cred: for the love of God, like you know you stop the tug of war between support, DonAlt: Yeah.
48:32
Speaker A
Cred: retest and failed breakout. And at least now you have a bit of a cushion.
48:36
Speaker A
Cred: that if the market pulls back, it doesn't like, break the entire picture. Cred: And I think that's worth taking seriously. And I really think that's the Cred: only sort of clear level on this thing. We could probably spend the whole
48:46
Speaker A
Cred: day litigating. Is it exactly 2.7? where is the midpoint? should we use the Cred: sort of last lowest close pre-break at 2.8 as the resistor, etc? But, like, Cred: again, looking at this chart, that discussion is where you go to lose money.
49:00
Speaker A
Cred: so it's much better to use what the market Cred: gives you in, sort of with more confidence and something that's a bit Cred: clearer. And I think 2.3, whatever 2.4, does a pretty good job there.
49:11
Speaker A
Cred: Everything else for me personally, I'm like, much less convinced by. Cred: you know, anything between like, 2.5 to 2.9, if that ends up Cred: being the, you know, even 3K, right, 2.5 to 3K? If that ends up being like
49:24
Speaker A
Cred: some resistance inflection point, it's going to be one of those hindsight Cred: commentary. Things be like, bro, it was obvious like that was the resistance Cred: on ETH. And then I will probably scream. Because because you can draw 10
49:34
Speaker A
Cred: other levels in that same $500 price range, that are the supposed Cred: inflection point. But you have one good one and 10 shit ones, you know, like, Cred: I'll go for the one good one. And leave the rest to figure itself out.
49:45
Speaker A
DonAlt: I generally think like, if you go in the weekly. Time frame DonAlt: and zoom out a bit. Like literally you can justify drawing any level in, like DonAlt: in between, like 2.4 and 3.4-ish DonAlt: K, like, you can like any level. Yeah, any level you want to draw,
50:01
Speaker A
Cred: That's even wider, isn't it? DonAlt: you're gonna find an anchor point, you're gonna find some justification DonAlt: to draw it. Which is why I think your hate, DonAlt: like this way, your hate comes from. And I totally understand. Like, I
50:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: think you have to zoom quite a bit now and ignore all the stuff on the left.
50:23
Speaker A
DonAlt: and it kind of works out. Like with mapping, DonAlt: the prior low of the consolidation, which is DonAlt: 2.8-ish from the first sell-off, where, like, DonAlt: where we made the last high, sold off, like the midpoint of that sell-off
50:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: the low, the low of that consolidation. You map that out, ignore DonAlt: everything else, and you have that. At 2.7, the high DonAlt: 2.7 slash 2.8 k. and that's kind of what we're struggling with DonAlt: anyway, which does align with your 2.7 level, like it's close enough.
51:03
Speaker A
DonAlt: and I'm just choosing to ignore every single other level DonAlt: and just focus on the on the recent move, which has been like, as DonAlt: basically anything that happened before mid-2025, I would just ignore.
51:20
Speaker A
DonAlt: And I think that's probably going to do better than just DonAlt: trying to draw any level because there's so many.
51:28
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, if they're all levels, then none of them are levels. DonAlt: Yeah, exactly.
51:32
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, 2.7s are good. Like, out of all the Cred: shit ones, I think that's the only semi-defensible one. Essentially, DonAlt: Yeah.
51:39
Speaker A
Cred: it's the midpoint on the high time frame range, on Cred: the daily time frame without getting into left-hand chart psychosis, Cred: it is like the daily structure. As you mentioned, the bottom of the Cred: range pre-breakdown and the market. Probably the best validation is the market
51:56
Speaker A
Cred: seems to be giving a shit about it too, which is where we've slowed down.
52:00
Speaker A
Cred: But I also think this falls into the similar to the BTC bucket, where Cred: like nothing has broken yet, right? There's been no mega violent rejection Cred: from 2.7, even if there were a violent rejection from 2.7. We have
52:13
Speaker A
Cred: enough space now for the chart not to totally collapse and look like a piece Cred: of shit, given the weekly gap we've created from the 2.3k push Cred: away. And then I think if you really wanted to get fancy with it, you can use
52:26
Speaker A
Cred: the top of the consolidation at like 2.5. Where we spent a bit of time and Cred: had a failed breakout, etc. And then we broke through that since the last show.
52:36
Speaker A
Cred: so you could like, box out, you know, even Cred: without drawing levels, you could like box out that whole consolidation.
52:41
Speaker A
Cred: And say that the nearest support is the most recent range at, you Cred: know, between 2.4 and 2.5, that's your support, and the nearest resistance Cred: is basically the same. But like the old range, Cred: sorry, yeah, there's resistance is the old range at 2.7. That was broken,
52:58
Speaker A
Cred: and that's it. That's your ETH chart without getting into, you know which Cred: monthly two candles do I use without getting into? The weekly like there are 50 DonAlt: Yeah.
53:06
Speaker A
Cred: levels here and like, one of them is defensible. I think this is one of those Cred: where you can rationally justify taking a lower time frame view, trusting Cred: that it sufficiently reflects the high time frames. And you're essentially
53:17
Speaker A
Cred: left with 2.3–2.4 on the downside, 2.7 to the upside. And generally speaking, Cred: the market's been walking up and nothing is, nothing is broken yet, oh.
53:27
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, well said, and I mean, I hate to say it, but kind of like, DonAlt: everything's in the same spot. What? Like? We just talked about ETH being DonAlt: at that like, pivotal 2.7 level Bitcoin being at the
53:43
Speaker A
DonAlt: monthly and the weekly level that it needs to break. And you go to Solana, DonAlt: which is the next on the list, and you go on the monthly time frame, and DonAlt: you're like, Oh, it's at 120, the level we talked. Talked about, Yep.
53:54
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, I've still got that level, I should probably keep these levels, dude Cred: like I've. Got them from from last week's episode. That's exactly where it is Cred: right. It's that monthly highest close from March 2022, arguably, but it
54:03
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yep. Cred: goes all the way to the recent range low. But yeah. You're right, look, another Cred: theme has emerged for this week, but yeah, in AI psychosis terms, DonAlt: Yeah.
54:15
Speaker A
Cred: you're. Absolutely right, Don The market's just been pushing up. It Cred: broke the first level of resistance, and now, for the first time, it's hit Cred: larger time frame, bigger inflection points. It hasn't fucking totally Cred: collapsed, hasn't Barted, and even if it were to pull back, the luxury
54:33
Speaker A
Cred: of walking up in the first place is that you have some reasonable room before Cred: the entire picture collapses. That's the. Sort of TLDR market wide, it seems.
54:39
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like? Cred: And in sole terms, I don't know if you have anything below, like, like, Yeah, Cred: above, sorry. 100 as that sort of support structure where, hey, this Cred: pullback's pretty big, but nothing's really broken yet, and admittedly, that's
54:56
Speaker A
Cred: a pretty big move. But I think the 120 side is definitely clear. Cred: As far as monthly and weekly, do you have anything between those where you'd Cred: feel somewhat confident that this is a defensible, modest pullback?
55:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: I don't really like it, like, I look at this thing generally. DonAlt: I look at this thing, and I'm kind of like, why? Why is DonAlt: it even retesting this resistance in the first place? Like if it's bearish
55:21
Speaker A
DonAlt: which makes me think this probably gonna go up, like the DonAlt: fact that we kind of retested this very obvious resistance.
55:29
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's kind of like it's very rare that happens DonAlt: in high time frames and doesn't just fully melt up. In crypto DonAlt: it's more likely in altcoins than than than in Bitcoin. But DonAlt: anyway, like, that's that gives me like a bullish leaning bias
55:46
Speaker A
DonAlt: but even having that bullish leaning bias, like DonAlt: anything like I don't really like any support.
55:53
Speaker A
DonAlt: besides 100, that's a monthly level, that's a weekly level, that's kind DonAlt: of where we're coming from and that's kind of ish a daily level as DonAlt: well. Like, I like 100, anything else I don't, but I like it generally
56:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: as in like, like I like. If I had DonAlt: a position and I don't I, I showed a position at the bottom, but I don't DonAlt: have one. But if I had a position, I wouldn't want to sell this resistance.
56:23
Speaker A
DonAlt: I would want to stick with that play until invalidated. I think DonAlt: the risk, same story as with Bitcoin, as with ETH, as with other DonAlt: things, the risk is in missing out rather than in giving back some profits.
56:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: And I think like 100 is a really nice level, we could start DonAlt: losing 100, and like on the weekly time frame, you have like a really nice DonAlt: level. At 96, 97, we start losing that.
56:53
Speaker A
DonAlt: we come back into that old range, starts looking like shit. And then I'd be, DonAlt: then I'd be kind of reconsidering but given, given. I showed this at 74 DonAlt: and I'm guessing some people that listened to it took the took the trade.
57:10
Speaker A
DonAlt: and my original target was 120. DonAlt: I was like, good, like, that's the reasonable kind of move DonAlt: But I probably want to stick with that position and see where it goes.
57:22
Speaker A
DonAlt: and kind of invalidation. If it crosses back below DonAlt: 96 on a closing basis, that would not be not be DonAlt: nice. And then I'd probably have to reconsider, but until then, kind of, DonAlt: like, I don't really see a good reason to be bearish. Even though we are
57:40
Speaker A
DonAlt: at the like, at the most obvious resistance level on the planet. DonAlt: and that could be me being stupid. But just generally, this never works out DonAlt: for me in crypto. And I've, like, we've been in this
57:54
Speaker A
DonAlt: situation a bunch of times before and it's very, very rarely works out. DonAlt: on the short side of things. So I think more DonAlt: realistically, we probably break 120, 120 and then I don't really DonAlt: have a resistance until range high again, which is 200.
58:11
Speaker A
Cred: Dude, my chart looks very similar to that. It's quite funny. The analogy I was Cred: thinking of is, is anything above 120? On Solana? Is like the Cred: 2.5 to 3K section on ETH, where if you look at it on the weekly,
58:26
Speaker A
Cred: it's like, What am I supposed to use here? This is hideous, right? DonAlt: Yep, yeah, yeah.
58:30
Speaker A
Cred: It's awful, like 120 is super clear, Cred: 250 is also super clear, everything else is just dog shit.
58:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: So I guess we could do the ethereum sort of coping exercise of just go high to Cred: low and split the baby again. And that gives you like, 180 ish.
58:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: which which is kind of neither here nor there not completely. Terrible, Cred: but like, look at how clustered and sort of compressed Cred: this stuff is on the monthly time frame, and I'm not sure the
59:00
Speaker A
Cred: daily is even better. Like, if you break 120, where do you go, I mean?
59:00
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: Maybe you use the top of the daily range at Cred: 140, but like, you're really getting into it. At that point, Cred: you know, you've taken a monthly resistance and you're like, Where's the DonAlt: Yeah, nah.
59:13
Speaker A
Cred: daily? Resistance $20 above It's just not good practice. DonAlt: I generally think this is a ginormous range, right? Right, the 120 to Cred: Yeah, dude.
59:22
Speaker A
DonAlt: 210, that's the range we stuck in that range. both you and I DonAlt: shit-talked. 120 as support for the longest time. It finally broke down.
59:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: Now if we reclaim it, we are back in that old range. And the one thing DonAlt: that I've talked about a bunch and you talked about a bunch as well. It's DonAlt: generally something that works quite well in cryptos, you reclaim an
59:46
Speaker A
DonAlt: old range. Like, what's your target? like, range high, like that's DonAlt: the first target that you have and then you can start talking about. Maybe DonAlt: I ignored the range high and aim for higher, but like, when you
60:01
Speaker A
DonAlt: have, like a range that is lost, that you reclaim. I think any target DonAlt: below range high is probably probably DonAlt: too low. And now obviously you can start losing that range again, like we DonAlt: could go to 140, 150 and then lose the range again. And then obviously, like,
60:21
Speaker A
DonAlt: fuck that looks horrendous at that point. But like, if I had to make the DonAlt: choice, like, I would not want to, kind of be like, Oh yeah, let me sell 140.
60:30
Speaker A
DonAlt: After we've reclaimed that range, I'd feel like a massive idiot. If it then DonAlt: runs to the range high or even breaks out higher. Like, just like that DonAlt: just seems silly to me and I understand that these kind
60:44
Speaker A
DonAlt: of targets are really high. But like, just from a technical perspective. DonAlt: This is a monthly chart, it could be a daily chart and be the same story, DonAlt: right? Like you have a massive daily range, you reclaim the bottom of the
60:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: range, like, where do you? Where is it gonna go? And I would would always DonAlt: say range high. Whether that move is like a hundred dollars, like or like, DonAlt: whether that move is like 10%, or if it's in this case,
61:09
Speaker A
DonAlt: a 2x like a hundred dollar move. For Solana, like, it's the DonAlt: same, it's the same kind of setup, whether it's daily or monthly level.
61:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's just this one just would seem really high, but DonAlt: realistically, I think that's the only thing that makes makes sense.
61:28
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, I think it's the only technically defensible option. Because, as Cred: a matter of principle, I refuse to engage in the mid 100s on a TA level DonAlt: Yeah, yeah.
61:37
Speaker A
Cred: after 120. I'm just too old to put myself through that. Cred: But also you're. Right, there's a better argument for not doing that.
61:47
Speaker A
Cred: Which is, if you're right about the 120 reclaim, why on earth are you Cred: looking $10, $20, $30 higher? Like, it's either gonna full send or Cred: you've been giga scammed, that's it, there's, there's no middle ground here.
61:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yep, yeah. Cred: are there other? alts You've looked at which sort Cred: of either meet this definition or you think reflect the broader theme Cred: of the market being stuck. Ish, Zcash is actually pulled back Cred: on the like. This is this support, Don. Maybe a one-liner there,
62:11
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, DonAlt: Dude, you know, Cred: like, there's something here on the daily time time frame. Does this count?
62:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: you cannot, you cannot ask me anymore. DonAlt: Like, I went on, like I opened it on the monthly. I'm like, I don't DonAlt: know, man. I don't see support forward here. And the thing is like DonAlt: This has been one of the stronger on this. I think like part of
62:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: the reason why this has been struggling. Like one of the most prolific DonAlt: biggest Zcash traders that has been bullish from quite lower.
62:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: sold their position and that DonAlt: led to quite quite a few people just closing out with that person.
62:56
Speaker A
DonAlt: doesn't have to mean much. And generally we are like DonAlt: in no man's land, right? Given we've, we've kind of made new all-time DonAlt: highs. But, like, I am the wrong person to ask where you DonAlt: should be buying this. It's way too far gone from any support
63:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: levels where I'd be comfortable shilling people into a position like this. DonAlt: I generally think it's obviously still strong, even though, like DonAlt: we've had like a little bit of underperformance. But I'm not the guy to DonAlt: ask for these kind of trades like. This is like a runner that has run so far.
63:31
Speaker A
DonAlt: That it's just so far from support DonAlt: or anything that I where I'd be comfortable with buying it that I'm just DonAlt: like, you guys, do you like you buy it? Because it's strong? Like you can DonAlt: argue, like, Hey, it's near daily support and it is. But like,
63:49
Speaker A
DonAlt: I don't trade just off of that one time frame, I usually need more than that.
63:54
Speaker A
DonAlt: and that means that I usually miss out, like some of of the biggest runners.
63:59
Speaker A
DonAlt: but given I cannot really justify, like, like, a risk profile for DonAlt: this, like, it's just. It's just not my style of trading. So I'll put that DonAlt: back on you and be like, Yeah, Cred, Cred, what do we do? Because I...
64:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: fuck if I know, yep. Cred: Yeah, dude, this stuff gets sort of exponentially more difficult, Cred: I think. The simplest answer I can give is if you want to participate Cred: in something like this with a defensible sort of risk profile
64:31
Speaker A
Cred: or anchoring the trade. Then you're forced to do it on lower time frames.
64:36
Speaker A
Cred: And that comes with the cost of just getting chopped out. Or potentially DonAlt: Yeah.
64:40
Speaker A
Cred: eating a bigger loss if there's a larger time frame reversion because Cred: it's up so much, et cetera. But you kind of have to do it on low time frames Cred: at this point and I would be using like the four hour and daily.
64:51
Speaker A
Cred: Like, if the argument is this was one price insensitive Cred: big size seller, caused a bit of a cascade. But if you think the market's Cred: gonna keep going up and that Zcash will continue to participate, then. You
65:02
Speaker A
Cred: just have to jump to the lower time frames and be like, what is like something Cred: semi-defensible, which I can use as an anchor for this?
65:08
Speaker A
DonAlt: Literally daily time frame. We're close enough on that, yeah. Cred: Daily or four hour, right? and if you Cred: want to, like, really zoom out. We had a consolidation here.
65:17
Speaker A
Cred: before we pushed up and now we're retesting that consolidation, the Donald Cred: School of Thought would argue that. Well, why are we retesting it in the first Cred: place, right? Like, if you look at the entire walk up, the consolidations
65:30
Speaker A
Cred: just broke without looking back. certainly, the big one in the 800s, like Cred: we had a mega impulse consolidated, and then we just doubled, right?
65:40
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: There was. There was no pullback to speak of, whereas this one is pulling Cred: back. But I think. Despite all those caveats and provisos, like if you want to Cred: make that bet, that consolidation is the only way to frame that bet.
65:53
Speaker A
Cred: you don't have to be too precise about it. You can probably just box out Cred: the whole thing. Which is actually in itself quite wide Cred: from high to low because of how volatile this thing has been. But
66:02
Speaker A
Cred: if you look on the four hour, you're basically trying to capture that range, Cred: the most recent range before the breakout. And then the idea is this is the Cred: only support structure that we have. The market has shaved off,
66:14
Speaker A
Cred: how much is that? From high to low? That's a 30% pullback into an intraday Cred: range. And if you have the broader context that you think crypto is going Cred: to go up, plus Zcash will continue to be strong, that's got to be it.
66:26
Speaker A
Cred: because the alternative is what, like, Oh? the clearest high Cred: time frame level on the monthly is 558 dollars.
66:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, no, it doesn't work. Cred: which would leave you in a position to wait for, like, a 60 percent pullback Cred: and then your? So-called entry, I mean, at that point, that that's Cred: completely different asset. Be a different trade. Even on the weekly. If
66:46
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, dude. Cred: you want, like a clean level, your best bet is again 700 bucks and Cred: that is 45. Percent away. So none of these are defensible. So even on Cred: the weekly time frame, and you know, this is like a peak sort of bull market
67:00
Speaker A
Cred: exercise. I know we've both done it, but you look at it and you're like, Okay, Cred: listen, there are no levels here. But where is the nearest red candle?
67:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: Like, where is the nearest red candle? That's how you do support on Cred: these types of assets in the the year of Our Lord 2026. And the nearest red Cred: candle is 1.2k to 1k. And then you look at that on the daily and you're like,
67:20
Speaker A
Cred: Okay, that's the consolidation. You look at it on the four hour and it's like, Cred: Yeah, that's the pre-breakout range and that's all you got, that's all you Cred: get. Like, you can't have your cake and eat it. Which is to say, miss like a
67:29
Speaker A
Cred: 10x and then be like, Okay, now I want a perfect inflection point, really Cred: convenient, high time frame level. It's like you can't, it's like because Cred: it has moved so much. Your best bets are either to like, delete it from your
67:41
Speaker A
Cred: watch list and pretend it's not real. Or, instead of anchoring on high Cred: time frames, sort of 60 80 away, you go on the lower time frames and Cred: fight for scraps, essentially scraps that will come with lower confidence, sort
67:57
Speaker A
Cred: of higher variance, etc. Just more difficult as a whole. But if you want it, Cred: you're going to pay for it, and the way you pay for it is with uncertainty.
68:04
Speaker A
Cred: by using these lower time frame structures. So, like, the 1–1.2K is the Cred: nearest one gun to my head. But this whole pre the the weekly red Cred: candle is the only answer I can give.
68:14
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. DonAlt: Dude, did you know that? Like, if you look at where this bottomed out was DonAlt: $15, something it actually just completed 100x from the bottom.
68:28
Speaker A
Cred: 100x, That's disgusting, dude. And that wasn't that long ago. That was, yeah, DonAlt: Yeah, it's 100x up.
68:33
Speaker A
DonAlt: No, no, no, that's 2024, yep. Cred: I mean, it was at 30 bucks. No, yes, true, but I mean. Like, the recent Cred: bottom isn't that much higher, it's like 30 bucks in August DonAlt: Yeah.
68:43
Speaker A
Cred: of 25, just over a. A year ago. Insane, insane, yeah. DonAlt: Yeah, so basically, like, like a 50x since then, 100x DonAlt: since since the bottom, but it's a clean 100x from bottom to top.
68:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: which also might explain some some profit taking like, that's wild DonAlt: but yeah, like, I agree with what you said. I generally like, whenever you DonAlt: get these retests what happens is like, when DonAlt: you get that retest. It usually turns into like a like a chop fest.
69:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: rather than like the strength like strength DonAlt: in a chart like this is basically you don't get DonAlt: retests and you will see this like you zoom out DonAlt: and you just check the move. From like 50 to 700,
69:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: almost 800, there was not really any retests. DonAlt: All the way up, right, like there was everything was front and ran the DonAlt: entire way up on the daily time frame. And then you got like a retest
69:45
Speaker A
DonAlt: that led to bounce, but ultimately like a like, DonAlt: a lower, lower low from that point on. And then it started chopping again DonAlt: and going up again, like whenever you get these retests, like during, like a
69:59
Speaker A
DonAlt: strong move. What usually happens is like you get a bounce that then DonAlt: fails and then it chops and either it goes up or just goes to zero.
70:11
Speaker A
DonAlt: so like, I'm, I'm always like you like, especially DonAlt: on the daily time frame, you need to be a little bit careful.
70:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: given like if you just buy the retest, you might you might just DonAlt: get completely screwed over and it just mega nukes. yeah.
70:26
Speaker A
Cred: These aren't like V reversal immediate gratification Cred: type of setups for the most part.
70:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, when you get the retest, it like, that's dangerous, dangerous trade. DonAlt: it's not free. It obviously like, DonAlt: sometimes you just have to bite that bullet. And but I'm just DonAlt: generally like, that's why, like, I can obviously throw up the daily chart
70:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: and be like, Okay, yeah, we are kind of like, at 1,250 DonAlt: like, that's an obvious retest level, DonAlt: let me just slam it and then take it higher.
70:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: it. The reason why I'm not necessarily advocating for that, DonAlt: I'm not saying that's not going to play out, it could easily play out, but DonAlt: it's because I've seen this. Like a bunch of times where you get like that
71:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: perfect retest, you bounce a little bit and then you nuke, everyone DonAlt: get rinsed and then it chops a bunch. And then maybe it goes higher, DonAlt: maybe it goes lower, but just generally, usually how it goes.
71:19
Speaker A
DonAlt: which is why, like I? And it sounds stupid when you say it, but like, DonAlt: that perfect retest is like worse of a setup than the one that doesn't.
71:29
Speaker A
DonAlt: and I think that, like that CCASH chart here DonAlt: tells that story really well. But it's like, you just didn't get.
71:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, when you don't get an entry, it probably keeps going higher. If you get DonAlt: an entry, you might have to actually cut that position, yeah.
71:42
Speaker A
Cred: It's like, why did I get an entry who's adversely Cred: selecting against me? Yeah, I mean, it's one of those I Cred: think this. We've sort of definitely spoken about this before, but it applies Cred: to crypto as a whole, that, you know, strong markets don't retest.
71:58
Speaker A
Cred: and yes. DonAlt: It's not even crypto, it's also just like trad markets when they DonAlt: go crazy we talked about. Before, do you remember which Cred: That's true, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's just a flow thing, DonAlt: did the exact same thing? Yeah, yeah.
72:07
Speaker A
Cred: right? Yeah, it's like, the strongest markets don't retest, Cred: and I think that's one of, and also like, the strongest breakouts don't come Cred: back. Like, it's all of these things that are very easy to understand once you
72:21
Speaker A
Cred: understand them, but they're deeply unintuitive. If you've learned to trade Cred: the ta way, right, because you'll remember, especially in like, 2017. There Cred: was this massive. It sounds like a sociology lecture, but I'm like, like, Cred: there was this massive movement, Don, there was a social movement where
72:39
Speaker A
Cred: it's like people were inherent. And this is going to sound insane to anyone Cred: listening, and certainly maybe those who listen to the show for a while.
72:47
Speaker A
Cred: But a breakout that didn't retest was actually considered bearish. DonAlt: Yeah, yeah, yep, this.
72:52
Speaker A
Cred: Do you remember this brainworm period in like mainstream Cred: technical analysis, where the idea was that if you get a breakout, Cred: it is only a real breakout out? If it, like, confirms and confirms, Cred: means comes back, I'm not making this up, right, like the entire. Paradigm
73:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: Is so stupid. Yeah, yeah. Cred: was that like, okay, a breakout is just a thing and it's only if it Cred: comes back to retest the breakout at the same level. Then it becomes Cred: that it becomes confirmed, and then you are justified in, like, taking a long
73:25
Speaker A
Cred: position. I remember this, Oh dude, this might be just a complete brain worm.
73:29
Speaker A
Cred: Do remember this guy had like a P&L card of him being short from like 20k.
73:35
Speaker A
Cred: and the price at the time was at like 40 something. DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: he just lost all his money. And like, there was this conversation. Like, Cred: "What the fuck are you doing?" This guy: "But, like, 20K hasn't been confirmed
73:46
Speaker A
Cred: yet." Insane, like, insane. Stuff, but like that was a DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: real thing. And if you look at a lot of technical analysis, resources, sources Cred: to this day. The whole idea is like, if you have a breakout, it not only does
73:58
Speaker A
Cred: it become actionable upon retesting it, but it only becomes a valid Cred: breakout upon retesting it. Which is like, completely backwards to how it Cred: actually works, which is like, the breakout is a breakout until it isn't. And
74:12
Speaker A
Cred: an immediate retest is actually a sign of weakness, especially if DonAlt: No. Cred: there hasn't been. A bunch of time and space between the break and Cred: when it comes back. So if you follow that model, which is a popular one, then
74:26
Speaker A
Cred: the perfect breakout is one that barely breaks out and then immediately Cred: comes back to the level. And like, that is a I don't want to trade those Cred: don. certainly not, not on the long side. So that's an interesting case where
74:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: reality tends to diverge from how. Something is popularly taught, Cred: and then when you get a situation like this where something breaks. Out like DonAlt: Yeah.
74:49
Speaker A
Cred: the Zcash one, but there are plenty of others, right? It's like, breakout, Cred: Teleport, breakout, Teleport, breakout, Teleport, breakout, retest.
74:55
Speaker A
Cred: There are only two explanations, not only two, but like, there are two dominant Cred: explanations for that. The first is that this is the first sort of Cred: real sign of weakness. And momentum is starting to fade. Because
75:07
Speaker A
Cred: the previous breakouts didn't give an opportunity for a retest because the Cred: flow was different, the positioning was different, etc. But now something has Cred: changed in the market to allow it to come back to the level.
75:18
Speaker A
Cred: That's the first explanation, and the second one, which is obviously more Cred: compelling to answer the question of, like, why is this thing retesting now?
75:25
Speaker A
Cred: Simply, God loves me, I am his son, and he wants me to have Cred: an entry that is the only alternative to the first one.
75:35
Speaker A
DonAlt: I mean, like, just like, because I mentioned it earlier, just just DonAlt: throw up SanDisk for a second. Because we talk about this on the show and DonAlt: it's exactly the same thing where you have, like, infinite
75:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: up move. And we talked about this retest while it was happening. DonAlt: like there was this one red candle like we had this.
75:56
Speaker A
Cred: Oh yeah, this is where I had to remortgage the house when Cred: it overshot. I remember this now. The.
76:01
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, so like, it went up a bunch. DonAlt: Like, went to all-time high and had these two red candles and DonAlt: retested, kind of the red candle before the all-time high breakout.
76:12
Speaker A
DonAlt: And we talked about this on the show and we were like, is this the retest DonAlt: that you buy? and I was like, why the fuck is it retesting? It shouldn't DonAlt: look to the left, what happens? It just should go up and it didn't.
76:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: So I was like, I'm not feeling comfortable about that and then see what DonAlt: happens afterwards. That thing just nuked beyond belief. Leave might DonAlt: not look like much, but that's a 44 percent drawdown. And then it chopped
76:41
Speaker A
DonAlt: back up right, and then it's like, now it's exactly at that level. But that's DonAlt: kind of what I'm talking about. Like, whenever you get these kind of like DonAlt: retests, more often than not, you just get completely wiped out. And
76:53
Speaker A
DonAlt: then maybe maybe it goes your way or it doesn't. yeah. Cred: Chop Fest example is really clear on this one, right?
77:00
Speaker A
Cred: where? Even if it ultimately resolves in your favor, there's DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: no guaranteed v. Reversal on these and I Cred: think this one, I mean, I know this one personally. Again, like the, you know, Cred: the bailiffs have been to my house. The TV is gone.
77:12
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: it's a developing situation, but. But basically, zero Cred: retests the entire way up. I think the arguable one is the Cred: when was the yeah? Like, early in 2026? We have those two weekly red Cred: candles around the all-time high. And those got retested and resolved pretty
77:31
Speaker A
Cred: quickly. Sort of in February, at the start of the year, the top side of that, Cred: but after that, it's just, I mean, that was fairly early on. It what 4x'd DonAlt: Yeah.
77:41
Speaker A
Cred: after that, or like 5x, depending on how you count. And then DonAlt: Yeah.
77:46
Speaker A
Cred: you got a retest after a 5x and that thing was it was a shit show. Like it Cred: blasted through the obvious level, it even closed through the more, Cred: the so-called conservative level at 1.4K. Just just completely
77:59
Speaker A
Cred: obliterated that, and even then, it hasn't fully recovered at this point. Cred: Like, it just turned into something that, you know, you can literally draw DonAlt: Yeah.
78:06
Speaker A
Cred: like a diagonal line. On the trend for this thing on the weekly. And now, Cred: for the first time, it's just like, Well, yeah, you, you've got to retest. And Cred: now it's a chop fest and far less attractive to trade. I think that's a
78:16
Speaker A
Cred: really good pull from your hat as far as how these things can evolve and Cred: the cost of trading those things. But hey, the guys who were waiting for Cred: confirmation finally got it, Don, so you know, we. Should be happy for them.
78:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: And I mean, that's. Also DonAlt: up like almost 100x so. Cred: Yeah, isn't that crazy Cred: Sandisk dude? Pretty sure I've got some sandisk around my house somewhere.
78:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: I. DonAlt: Do have it in my computer or in my computers? I think so.
78:42
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, I mean good tech, we should just Cred: invest in companies we use like normal people.
78:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, but like, that's why. The Cred: It's fine, I'm gonna top blast the Anthropic IPO and like, lose all of DonAlt: same.
78:54
Speaker A
Cred: my money, dude, the financials. Are absolutely terrible, but I'm just gonna DonAlt: Yeah.
78:58
Speaker A
Cred: cope and sort of do what I always do, which is. pseudo-intellectualise and Cred: rationalise to make myself feel better, like I give into my impulses. Like Cred: a poorly behaved animal, or just like an animal doesn't need to be poorly
79:09
Speaker A
Cred: behaved, right? It's just it's just animal-like behavior. And then the monk, Cred: the evolved monkey brain, will kick in and say, find a way to make this sound Cred: defensible and clever. So you can go to sleep at night. So the argument I will
79:21
Speaker A
Cred: make for top-blasting and losing all my money on Anthropic will be something Cred: along the lines of. Of course, the economics are bad because we are in the Cred: scaling up and transition and transformational and diffusion state
79:32
Speaker A
Cred: of this technology. But I see so far ahead of what these models Cred: can be and how they will evolve into the physical space with robotics. And all Cred: this rosy-eyed future stuff that I, you know, the risk
79:44
Speaker A
Cred: premium is to buy shitty economics now, understanding the impact Cred: later. And that will be in my suicide diary before Cred: I top blast and the thing disappears 80% and the government, Cred: like, takes over Anthropic and shoots Dario or something. I mean, they're
80:00
Speaker A
Cred: beefing with the Pope now. I don't know if you're reading the news, right?
80:02
Speaker A
DonAlt: They are, Yeah, I did. Cred: They're beefing with the. Pope This is, these are not the good guys. Although Cred: historically the Catholic Church, you could also make arguments on that side DonAlt: Yeah, it's not entirely clear, yeah.
80:11
Speaker A
Cred: of the equation. It's not entirely clear. These, yeah, it's interesting. Cred: Parties going on, but they're going up to the Pope and be like, Hey bro, so Cred: you know this stuff about like souls and morality and stuff give it
80:22
Speaker A
Cred: to our clanker. Because we can't be sure that it hasn't got consciousness, and Cred: if it does, and then it becomes extremely powerful and misaligned. We're Cred: kind of fucked, so can you just like hedge for us using your heavenly
80:34
Speaker A
Cred: authority? And he's like, Lol, No, so that that's a fun development I was.
80:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: He was like, You guys are on crack, DonAlt: dude. It's hilarious. But yeah, I mean, we had this whole DonAlt: situation before with SpaceX. I remember where we talked about DonAlt: it and then it immediately went up a bunch.
80:53
Speaker A
Cred: Completely vindicated. Look at it now. DonAlt: Yeah, it went up a bunch and it went to zero, and DonAlt: then no, no, no, it's back to where it was.
80:59
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, yeah, but hey, it's climbing, it's climbing. Cred: Do you remember the what was it? the IPO support level? at Cred: what was it? 140, the listing support level? Some meme like that?
81:09
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, it's it. Cred: then it died, but it went. To 100, I mean, this trade, this trades like a meme, Cred: right? It sort of holds its, it holds its listing. Level for a little bit DonAlt: Does? Yeah, yeah.
81:20
Speaker A
Cred: dies, but dies to a round number and then starts walking up, dude. DonAlt: I mean, I'm not biggest fan, but yeah.
81:29
Speaker A
Cred: I do think like, Cred: I don't know what you think about this, but on a more sort of meta Cred: perspective, part of me. And I haven't done anything towards this yet Cred: because I am a lazy, unreliable piece of shit. And I'm constantly getting
81:42
Speaker A
Cred: 800 Slack pings from Breakout. And I've. I've just become a corporate drone. Cred: But part of me wants to sort of zoom out and think Cred: about portfolio allocation generally speaking. And I've flagged this before.
81:54
Speaker A
Cred: But it's like, should I kind of want to, at some point, structure Cred: a very reckless small percentage of portfolio?
82:04
Speaker A
Cred: sort of singularity bucket, right? Where it's like, if the future is Cred: going to look mega different and the pace, you know, pacing the frontier is a Cred: meme, and the capabilities continue to evolve, etc. And we live in some weird,
82:18
Speaker A
Cred: dystopian pseudo future where there's a tech, I mean, we're arguably Cred: there already with, like, a tech oligarchy and neo-feudalism DonAlt: Yep, yep.
82:26
Speaker A
Cred: etc. It's like, Do I want? A basket of, like all these at the moment, dog shit Cred: companies, right? Like on Economics alone, SpaceX. Anthropic, OpenAI.
82:38
Speaker A
Cred: I don't want to get into, like the data center debt side of things like.
82:43
Speaker A
Cred: You know, all the CoreWeave and all these neoclouds. I don't want to do that Cred: big, so it's I. Think it's a bit of a. it's a bit of a dud. But in terms of, Cred: like the big frontier labs companies, who. Were just like building
82:56
Speaker A
Cred: out mind-blowing levels of compute, and it just all the money in the Cred: world. As going towards them to just basically get better and unlock things.
83:06
Speaker A
Cred: Part of me is like, I should have a singularity portfolio. Cred: Which is very lazily put together. It's like SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, Cred: if they're ever IPO. I don't want to do the neo cloud slops. It's just like
83:17
Speaker A
Cred: sort of big companies, big labs. And then just hold it and Cred: see, you know, expect, basically. Treat it like an ICO, where you expect to Cred: go to zero. Or eat like an 80% drawdown. But if you're right, you're,
83:28
Speaker A
Cred: I mean, you're not early. Because of the way these valuations work, right, I Cred: think that's the big difference here is by the. Time these things hit public DonAlt: Yeah.
83:37
Speaker A
Cred: markets, a lot of this sort of value has already been extracted. Cred: And the valuations are super fucking high, but then the argument would be like, Cred: they're not singularity high. So it's like an obvious AI psych
83:50
Speaker A
Cred: like AI psychosis bet. Like my core case, isn't that within Cred: five years? It's all fucking robots and machines, etc. I think like Cred: the economy is actually actually going to be pretty, you know, all the job
84:01
Speaker A
Cred: loss stuff, just, you know, you're going to. Wake up and no jobs exist.
84:03
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: That's not my base case. Cred: I think people are going to be slow to adjust. And the Cred: form factor on these tools is kind of shitty for most people to use.
84:15
Speaker A
Cred: There's a bit of sort of resilience and it Cred: takes a while to diffuse through the economy, etc.
84:22
Speaker A
Cred: So that psycho case isn't my base case. But I still think I should have Cred: some sort of fucking exposure to it if I'm wrong, basically.
84:29
Speaker A
Cred: And it's like a transformational, one-shot, modern society type Cred: of thing. So even if it's like a one to three percent or whatever, it is Cred: expected to go to zero, five percent doesn't matter. Type of bucket. Just
84:40
Speaker A
Cred: slam some fucking overpriced dog shit with bad economics frontier labs Cred: and see if they can invent God in a box. What do you think of that?
84:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: I mean, I think it's fair, it's just like these valuations are so DonAlt: high. Like you're gonna make a 5X. If they invent God, you're DonAlt: like, you know what I mean? Like, they're already so absurd. There's like
85:01
Speaker A
Cred: That's so good, dude, yeah. DonAlt: they they would need to, they would actually need to invent. God to get DonAlt: to price levels where it actually makes a marginal like, a like a proper DonAlt: difference. But I'm not like, I'm not hating. Yeah, I
85:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: think it's probably like a wise decision. You have some exposure, but DonAlt: I think, like, legit think these valuations are fucking crazy.
85:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: like, there's a good chunk of okay, DonAlt: this is gonna shape the future already baked into it.
85:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: but yeah, if it's like, I like, I'm DonAlt: kind of in two minds about it. I generally think that's gonna be like DonAlt: changing the future. And we are like, we are DonAlt: gonna have, like, AIS are gonna be like a big part, part of the future.
85:49
Speaker A
DonAlt: I hope these companies don't just do what you just said, basically. DonAlt: And I I think I probably kind of invest with my, with my DonAlt: hopes and dreams in this case, rather than with like, with DonAlt: just being like, capitalistic. But that might just be like the
86:08
Speaker A
DonAlt: unreasonable, like, non-investor DonAlt: side of me, where I'm like, Yeah, I don't. I don't know if I want DonAlt: to live in the future like that, so I'd rather not put my money there.
86:19
Speaker A
DonAlt: but it's probably not bad. But DonAlt: generally it's just like one that I'm not willing to make.
86:28
Speaker A
DonAlt: I think, but I'm not entirely sure yet. But DonAlt: I just I look at these valuations and I look at my conscience, and DonAlt: I'm like, I don't like these for both of these reasons.
86:39
Speaker A
DonAlt: so I'm just, I'm just gonna let other people run away DonAlt: with that and do my trusty old crypto stuff. And DonAlt: then, like, make a new decision in a year or two or three and go from there.
86:52
Speaker A
Cred: No, it makes sense. I just think the Cred: risk profile, as I mentioned on Cred: another show, is quite attractive. Because if I'm right, Cred: there's like a, you know, a singularity. 5x. Like, as you mentioned, Cred: like, God is real. And you know, I've made less than Zcash
87:13
Speaker A
Cred: but if I'm wrong, this is the important part. Yes, I lose money. DonAlt: Fair.
87:18
Speaker A
Cred: But maybe I'll get, like some government ubi and a robot girlfriend Cred: to, like, finger me on the sofa while I eat cheetos. And like, losing Cred: money on Bitcoin. Can't give me the latter, you know whereas robot
87:29
Speaker A
DonAlt: Enough? Cred: companionship UBI being a serf to the data Cred: center feudal lords, that I mean, I. I was going to say it's better than zero, Cred: but now that I think of it, maybe it's not, maybe it's not.
87:43
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, I mean, but maybe the robots go really DonAlt: horny for crypto and then what? You don't hold Cred: Yes, yes, this is.
87:51
Speaker A
DonAlt: enough and then, and you don't get fingered by the robot on your sofa.
87:55
Speaker A
Cred: Listen, a robot that doesn't finger me on my sofa is misaligned. Okay, Cred: I'm reporting that directly to the labs if that's the case.
88:04
Speaker A
DonAlt: Fair enough. Cred: Oh, Jesus, okay, great. I Cred: don't know if there are any other Alts you want to talk about.
88:12
Speaker A
Cred: Lighter has pulled back a fair chunk. That that's off. DonAlt: Yeah. DonAlt: Lighter, there's news, yeah.
88:18
Speaker A
Cred: Oh, is it cuz Robinhood was gonna use Bitstamp for Cred: perps instead of Lighter? Is that it?
88:22
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, basically, like, yeah, there's a bunch of kind of like, Oh shit. DonAlt: Lighter is not going to be used by Robin Hood as much as anticipated, Cred: Okay.
88:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: basically. Basically that's where, like that big down candle comes DonAlt: from, and yeah, I generally like.
88:38
Speaker A
Cred: Yeah, that's it, that's a big boy dude. DonAlt: I want to see how that kind of like plays out. I DonAlt: like, I don't want to be like bearish on the first good DonAlt: pullback. But that goes above my pay grade, basically, like I'd
88:53
Speaker A
Cred: Mm-hmm. DonAlt: have to read into like, because. Because I'd have to read into how that DonAlt: whole relationship works and how kind of close the teams are.
89:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: And I just don't want to do that, so I'm just not going to make DonAlt: much of a comment. But it's an aggressive DonAlt: pullback. It has already broken the first kind of weekly level.
89:21
Speaker A
Cred: Is there a daily time frame? knife catch here? Don DonAlt: And. Cred: cuz like if you look at the daily. This is again we're back in the red candle DonAlt: Yeah.
89:28
Speaker A
Cred: psychosis territory. Well, this is like the first little. DonAlt: I'd. Cred: Consolidation, that's somewhere in the area, because the next one is Cred: all the way down at two and a half, right, right? 2.6.
89:38
Speaker A
Cred: You like two and a half, so you want the deeper pullback before you even.
89:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, two and a half, DonAlt: yeah, like, like, I don't, I don't like it when you have, like, yeah, Cred: That's 50%, dude, yeah.
89:45
Speaker A
DonAlt: I don't like it when you have, like. An impulse that gets fully retraced DonAlt: and then buying that like it, just like, usually doesn't go well for me. As DonAlt: in, like the pullback, like the impulse from 3.5 all the way up to like
89:59
Speaker A
DonAlt: five. Like that was the impulse, you took that out, like the DonAlt: high was taken out above, and then we fully retrace DonAlt: that impulse, like on a daily time frame. I don't like that much. That DonAlt: could obviously, given it's news related, it can always retrace it. And
90:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: then we sound like, Oh, I sound like an absolute being, like, not bullish DonAlt: at the bottom, but like, I don't like it. When impulses get fully retraced DonAlt: so I kind of be like, given that impulse fully retraced, I
90:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: kind of look at 2.7 to 2.5 and be like. Cred: The classic 50 haircut there or.
90:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, I like that a little bit better, but generally this is neutral. Cred: You can read the news, right? That's the other thing you mentioned. You just Cred: don't want to do it, which is understandable, but you basically say.
90:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: And then? Cred: We're at local support of some sort. It's news driven. Is it an overreaction?
90:53
Speaker A
Cred: Essentially yes, exactly exactly. DonAlt: You have to figure out whether it is or not. Because I'm not DonAlt: going to do your homework for you, yeah.
91:01
Speaker A
Cred: Yes, correct. Cred: I think that's fair. What about hype? Cred: I haven't looked at hype in. I mean, that's just not done anything.
91:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: It's awesome, Cred: Not in a bad way, I think. That's pretty impressive in DonAlt: yeah.
91:12
Speaker A
Cred: the grand scheme, given sort of where it is and how it got there.
91:16
Speaker A
DonAlt: The leaders have been a little bit weaker. Lately, lately, Cred: they have yeah.
91:19
Speaker A
DonAlt: like Zcash has been weaker, HYPE's been weaker, Lighter's been weaker. Cred: What about pump?
91:26
Speaker A
Cred: Pump's been all right. DonAlt: But yeah, but Pump's been shilled by, like, like Ansem's been shilling it DonAlt: a bunch, as far as I understand. And like, the bigger, bigger influencers.
91:37
Speaker A
DonAlt: There's like an unlock coming up or was, I don't remember, DonAlt: but basically like, there's a bunch of shilling going on, which doesn't DonAlt: have to be a bad thing. Generally, but yeah, pump, pump looks, looks all
91:45
Speaker A
Cred: Sure. DonAlt: right. So like, do you remember us talking about pump? When it was trading at DonAlt: like nothing? And we were like, we were getting Cred: Oh, we were getting shit, for that opinion, that's.
91:56
Speaker A
DonAlt: so much shit we were. Like, we were, like, we hate to say DonAlt: it, but like, that's one of the better bets. And that was at the bottom, DonAlt: I'm pretty sure, like a pico bottom, or like a little bit above it.
92:06
Speaker A
DonAlt: we're like, that's probably one of the better bet going into the next cycle.
92:11
Speaker A
DonAlt: and now it's up like 4x from there. Almost, yeah, Cred: I should have, I should start buying my own and your Cred: altcoin shills rather than I.
92:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: yeah, especially if people, people in the YouTube comments are DonAlt: like, Fuck you. Like, Okay, fair enough, like it's funny, because.
92:24
Speaker A
Cred: Mean, to be fair, every week of YouTube comments is like, Fuck you cred, Cred: stop talking, we're here for Don. I'm like getting Cred: mentally affected by it, messaging you on WhatsApp Cred: at like 4am your time being like, Bro, why do people hate me? I'm gonna
92:37
Speaker A
Cred: fix myself and shut the fuck up the next show and lo and behold, the next Cred: show comes along. And I ignore that completely and talk for like 80% Cred: of the time, and then the cycle viciously repeats itself. And.
92:48
Speaker A
DonAlt: No, people are just cunts, just how it is like. There's DonAlt: always like, when you have enough people in a crowd, there's always DonAlt: going to be like one or two people that are assholes. I've learned that,
92:58
Speaker A
DonAlt: like on Twitter, like there's always, like every single DonAlt: post I make, there's going to be one person in the comments. Shit DonAlt: talking me. Somehow, no matter what the post is.
93:08
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's just how it is, like, there's always gonna be someone. Cred: Then the correct mature thing to do is to disregard every single DonAlt: yeah.
93:16
Speaker A
Cred: wonderful comment that we get from our audience, saying nice things Cred: and sharing their thoughts. And to hyper fixate on the one negative one Cred: and treat it like it's the only comment that is mental health 101.
93:26
Speaker A
DonAlt: That DonAlt: is, that is being a human. Sadly, Cred: That is being a human, we're not supposed to talk to so many DonAlt: that's just kind of. How our brains work, which is, yeah, Cred: people, don. On Yes, I.
93:38
Speaker A
DonAlt: especially not people that we don't know, like this just doesn't. Make DonAlt: much sense, like, imagine you live in a village and DonAlt: some. Some cunt just knocks on your doors like, you fucking suck DonAlt: and then turns around and you're like, that guy's a fucking weirdo. Like no
93:53
Speaker A
DonAlt: one wants to be friends with him. Because, like, who the fuck does that?
93:58
Speaker A
DonAlt: but on the internet, that's kind of like what people do, and you're like, DonAlt: yeah, like you would never do that to someone in real life. But it's just how DonAlt: kind of how the internet shapes out. But
94:07
Speaker A
Cred: Love it, we're so well adjusted to it. yes. DonAlt: yeah, I mean, I think. Like, after, like DonAlt: the last 10 years being being active on Twitter, like, I've kind of DonAlt: managed to to beat it in a way. But you still like,
94:23
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's still like a like thing where you sometimes get stuck up on something, DonAlt: like, stuck on something. You're like, fucking hell, man, fuck you.
94:30
Speaker A
Cred: But you also have a wife and kids and things away from the screen, Cred: right? Whereas for me, the screen Cred: is where all my friends live, Don. This is all there is.
94:42
Speaker A
Cred: so it's a lot more difficult in that regard. speaking of a lot more difficult Cred: in that regard. You also periodically get asked about Monad Cred: normally when the candles are red. More so than more so than not, do you
94:51
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yes, DonAlt: yeah, yes. Cred: still have that spot or additional position beyond your investment?
94:59
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, I've just been like, people have been hating Cred: VC Slop? And what are you thinking of this chart there?
95:04
Speaker A
DonAlt: so much that my conviction has just been sky high. Don't ask, like, don't DonAlt: ask me why. That like, works in my brain. But every time someone's like, DonAlt: shit, talking, something that I'm doing, like, Okay, I must be right on that
95:16
Speaker A
DonAlt: one. And. And I got so much shit for that one that I've just like, decided DonAlt: to just hodl and that's worked out all right.
95:24
Speaker A
DonAlt: It's not like, and it's funny because like yesterday or the day before, DonAlt: like three days ago or whatever. It went up a bunch and people DonAlt: were like, Don is so right, and it just basically like, went back to being
95:39
Speaker A
DonAlt: like, performing. As well as Bitcoin has, like, it's not really been an DonAlt: outperformer, but given it was on that day, was one of the only coins going DonAlt: up. People are like, "Oh, Don is such... Don's such a genius." It's like,
95:51
Speaker A
DonAlt: eh? Arguable, it's still doing exactly what Bitcoin has been doing, like DonAlt: if you charted against Bitcoin, it's just been going sideways mainly.
96:01
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's been one of the better ones given other altcoins just went to zero, DonAlt: but it's not really super outperformed from Bitcoin. But yeah, I'm DonAlt: still still holding, still think that it probably goes higher. There's DonAlt: unlocks coming in like a month ish time, maybe two,
96:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: something like that so I always have to be aware DonAlt: of that. But I think that, like unlocks generally DonAlt: are, tend to be like it. Like they get priced in like a month or two before DonAlt: the unlock hits, so like the next month or two of price
96:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: action is going to be interesting. Like, if you, if you're bearish DonAlt: going directly into the unlock, I think that's probably dumb. if anything, DonAlt: you want to be bearish before. But I think like the last couple days of
96:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: outperformance have probably already kind of like, fucked a few people DonAlt: that were trying to time the unlocks.
96:57
Speaker A
DonAlt: that is probably where, like, a bunch of DonAlt: that that move comes from. We had like, a what is it?
97:04
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, 20% daily candle, DonAlt: probably a few people shorting getting blown up, DonAlt: but I generally like it still, if you go on the monthly time frame.
97:16
Speaker A
DonAlt: Depending on the exchange you use. But that's DonAlt: just a really nice consolidation that just broke out last month DonAlt: and now we're in the next month, which still looks quite good to me.
97:29
Speaker A
Cred: You go, we'll revisit this. When it's very red or DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: green, this is the only time this asset comes up.
97:36
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, I like it's funny because like I've, I've really liked Cred: oh. DonAlt: like setups on this like a couple times. But I like, I've refrained from DonAlt: tweeting because I kind of feel odd. Given given we're. Gonna
97:47
Speaker A
Cred: Sure, yeah. DonAlt: go into unlocks of basically what I have, so I'm like, I don't want DonAlt: to shill this like that seems wrong, given it's heading into unlocks DonAlt: and that's basically like parts of it is my unlock block. Which
98:03
Speaker A
DonAlt: has kind of made me refrain from talking about a good setup that's DonAlt: come up, but it's just kind of how it is. It's the same story here.
98:12
Speaker A
DonAlt: If I think about it rationally, I think this is in a really good spot.
98:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: We had every single cycle. DonAlt: There's a bunch of layer ones that do well, DonAlt: and I think if I had to pick one for this cycle, if that repeats, DonAlt: I probably pick Monad. Like it's one of the ones that I'd pick at least.
98:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: so I think it's like, well positioned, but I just don't talk about it DonAlt: much because I'm an early investor. So like, I feel like DonAlt: that feels wrong, so I just, I'm just like cheering it on
98:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: but more quietly than otherwise would, just because it feels wrong. Cred: I don't know, know, dude, your moral compass in the age of Fomo.app Cred: is becoming increasingly distant. Yeah.
99:00
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, it's, it's. DonAlt: Yeah, but I like it, like for me, like nothing's really changed.
99:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like just because everyone goes down the dark path, doesn't like DonAlt: the path of like, low morality, whatever doesn't really change my view.
99:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: Like, it's something you could obviously like. You see a bunch of people DonAlt: scamming and you're like, Oh yeah, everyone's scamming, so I should be, too.
99:23
Speaker A
Cred: I mean, that is definitionally what's happened, right? DonAlt: like, that's not, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
99:26
Speaker A
Cred: it's a for most participants, I think you. Could sort of Cred: classify it as a the sort of moral relativists when it comes to Cred: shilling and tokens, etc. You kind of follow the crowd and what's Cred: deemed acceptable and play around those boundaries. But yeah, if you're a
99:44
Speaker A
Cred: bit more more of an absolutist, then you don't care, by definition. DonAlt: No, yeah, like I like, DonAlt: if everyone, if everyone shits in the corner, I'm still gonna go to the DonAlt: toilet. Like this is not sorry. Like, I
99:58
Speaker A
DonAlt: like whatever like you guys, do you like? There's. There's bigger things Cred: Yeah.
100:04
Speaker A
DonAlt: than money in this life. I think and... Cred: What about NEAR? Is that one of those things Cred: that's bigger than money in this life?
100:13
Speaker A
Cred: it? Absolutely ripped face, NEAR Intents, NEAR AI, all DonAlt: Oh. Cred: that good stuff, ripped face. They got like like they had Cred: a small exploit, relatively small, which you can't even see on the chart. And DonAlt: Yeah, the three, three million, three million bridge hack, whatever, yeah.
100:27
Speaker A
Cred: then? Yeah, they found the dude, he returned the funds. Cred: this is one of those where, like, you can't ignore the strength, Cred: especially in the last two weeks. But then, if you want like a TA based
100:39
Speaker A
Cred: entry, I think you're gonna have a really bad time. Because the chart Cred: is so hideous and very sort. Of what?
100:43
Speaker A
DonAlt: We're exactly we're actually exactly like it. Keeps making DonAlt: lower highs, right, and it's at the last spot where it can make it a new DonAlt: lower high. Like we. It went to 20, then it went to 7–8,
100:58
Speaker A
DonAlt: it tried again 7–8 and now it's at like DonAlt: 5.50. Like, you can literally draw like a trend line there if you want to.
101:07
Speaker A
DonAlt: it's not super accurate, but it's like that you can draw a DonAlt: line through that. And it's kind of like, at this point where it's DonAlt: either going to break out or just continue this pattern, it DonAlt: kind of looks like it might break out. Like that. Doesn't look too bad.
101:23
Speaker A
DonAlt: but you, what Cred: Price Do you have this thing at the? DonAlt: do you mean, the trend line or like?
101:29
Speaker A
Cred: Asset price? Yeah, DonAlt: And NEAR's at 4.68. Yeah, yeah, Cred: I should make sure we're looking at the. Same thing Jesus.
101:35
Speaker A
DonAlt: yeah, I was like, what, no, it's like, basically, like. You have this DonAlt: like, if you zoom out a bit from 2022, you have like the high at DonAlt: 20, and then it keeps like, it keeps making lower highs as you go along.
101:50
Speaker A
Cred: Is that how far it went? Where's which price Cred: feed are you using? I was on, Oh.
101:54
Speaker A
DonAlt: Binance, like it's. It, has a long, long history, yeah. Cred: It does, yeah, yeah, oh wow. Okay, there's more going on here.
102:02
Speaker A
Cred: Do you remember FOAN in 2021? It was like Fantom. DonAlt: Oh, yes, yes.
102:09
Speaker A
Cred: something, NEAR that was like the absolute top blast Cred: basket, because it went from basically. It was SOL, LUNA, AVAX, right?
102:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, when they. Yeah, DonAlt: yeah. Cred: and then it went to FOAN, and then we all died, and.
102:24
Speaker A
DonAlt: When people make derivatives of, like, whatever DonAlt: the fuck is. Always a good, good time to get get away, but.
102:28
Speaker A
Cred: This was a Barry Silbert special as well. Pretty Cred: sure at the time anyway, no?
102:34
Speaker A
DonAlt: But yeah, just going back to it doesn't like that's actually DonAlt: like, quite decent. It's just like you said, I don't think there's ta that's DonAlt: gonna help you get an entry. You like the, you like the narrative.
102:47
Speaker A
DonAlt: and you can stomach a bunch of risk. And like, having this be DonAlt: a lower high again, I'm go for it. Like this is not something I would DonAlt: ever trade in. That way. Like this is obviously like, narrative driven
103:01
Speaker A
DonAlt: and if you don't get in on the narrative, like DonAlt: TA wise, there's not an entry there. So I'm, I wouldn't just DonAlt: like I just stay away from these. But that's probably why, like, during bull DonAlt: markets, people outperform me by like, stupid amounts and I have to
103:19
Speaker A
DonAlt: kind of be smart about it and then rectify that during the bear market.
103:24
Speaker A
DonAlt: so, like, there's ups and downsides to trading styles, but I always DonAlt: struggle with these. I don't know how you feel about it, but like, there's Cred: Same.
103:32
Speaker A
DonAlt: something that I would never trade well. It's not my trading style, yeah. Cred: Never in my life, dude, unless I managed to luck out into a good entry Cred: when the chart was just a lot quieter and technical based. Or
103:43
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah. Cred: when you're early to the breakout, I think then I'm better at. Navigating the Cred: sort of shitty uncertainty because I'll just start trailing based on, like, Cred: trend or something, or find a new level, essentially.
103:55
Speaker A
Cred: But on this type of stuff where it's already ripped. And it's now in an area Cred: where the TA sucks and the chart is ugly. I just don't have the bandwidth for Cred: it nowadays. Dude I should, but I mean, I don't, I agree with that.
104:09
Speaker A
Cred: cool, man. I think. I think that's a pretty decent overview. I think the TLDR Cred: is for a lot of these instruments, certainly for BTC and ETH. We've hit like Cred: a pretty decent level of resistance for the first time during the course
104:24
Speaker A
Cred: of this rally. Like I thought. And we argued that the, you know, 80K Cred: lower high argument was a bit bit junky, and throughout the argument Cred: was that. Like. These three impulse moves are setting the trend, as opposed to
104:39
Speaker A
Cred: kicking off a local mean reversion. And the market has Cred: continued to push up since then. Now we're up against weekly and monthly. But I Cred: don't think in a way that nullifies the entire bullish argument. And the
104:52
Speaker A
Cred: reaction so far hasn't stuffed it either. You can get low time frame bearish Cred: signals, for example, on BTC. As you mentioned, a push into 90 resistance and a Cred: failed breakout, or, as I mentioned, a failed break out going back below 82.
105:07
Speaker A
Cred: All of those are available, but they are still hypothetical. And the monthly Cred: close was pretty decent, and even on the weekly time frame. You Cred: know, we had a consolidation, we pushed up, we pushed up, and now this is
105:19
Speaker A
Cred: an inside week. You know, there's just nothing particularly crazy going on Cred: for the time being. So if you're in the mindset of I want to give the market a Cred: shot, then that hasn't been threatened yet. And same for ETH
105:33
Speaker A
Cred: trading around the mid to high 2000s 2.7K. You can use as a Cred: resistance level. It's also sort of slowing down because it's pushed into the Cred: first somewhat clear and defensible area. The weekly 2.7, or, if
105:45
Speaker A
Cred: you don't like that, the daily range low, which is also at 2.7, that's fine.
105:49
Speaker A
Cred: But the same caveat applies, which is to say, big, big picture. Cred: Nothing has been sort of nullified or invalidated yet, and the clearer view Cred: is that the market is above 2.4. So, really, the only shift has been that
106:01
Speaker A
Cred: we've created a bit of a cushion and buffer from the inflection points. Cred: That looked pretty threatening a few weeks ago that, okay, we really need to Cred: push through here or things look bad. We've now got a bit of a, we've got
106:12
Speaker A
Cred: some breathing room for pullbacks if they do happen, not to completely collapse Cred: the market. So I still think the bullish view is intact for that reason.
106:21
Speaker A
Cred: And then, on the Altcoin front, depending on where you look, I would Cred: personally filter by inflection point, essentially. And if the argument is Cred: acceleration, then your options are either Solana style, where you find Cred: a mega inflection point, and if it accelerates through there, you get to take
106:39
Speaker A
Cred: a stab at a larger magnitude move, or Zcash style, where it's not as Cred: clean, there isn't a mega inflection point. It's already been leading and your Cred: best bet, if you think things will continue, is to get low time frame
106:53
Speaker A
Cred: psychosis and pay the piper for not being early enough. But generally Cred: speaking, bit of chop, bit slowdown so far, it looks like a speed bump and Cred: nothing crazy. And if that changes, we'll lie and delete
107:08
Speaker A
Cred: this video. Or use some sort of AI remix to perfectly align with the market.
107:13
Speaker A
Cred: speaking of, the show, we mentioned last week that this will Cred: be. We're coming up to a break in the Casual Friday schedule.
107:22
Speaker A
Cred: the TLDR there is. Don is incredibly money Cred: greedy. So when Kraken, whom it's been a pleasure working with, Cred: didn't renew the show, Don was like, Well, listen. I'm just gonna go to every Cred: single competitor and prostitute myself for cash payment. And I said,
107:39
Speaker A
Cred: But don I? Because I'm technically well, I am part of Breakout, Cred: which has Kraken as their parent company. I can't participate in Cred: every single deal you do. Surely we should just continue the show and give the
107:52
Speaker A
Cred: people what they want, and it's also nice. I thought you were my friend and I Cred: want to catch up and talk to you every Friday. And you were like, No, I am Cred: money first. This means nothing to me, our audience means nothing to me, so I
108:04
Speaker A
Cred: will go and monetize of my own accord while keeping you out of it.
108:08
Speaker A
Cred: So that's the basic summary of the facts on that front. I don't know if you Cred: want to respond or correct the record in any anyway.
108:18
Speaker A
DonAlt: That's exactly correct. Cred: I. DonAlt: So I was like, Nah, man, this is not, this is not how we're gonna run it Cred: Think your exact quote was something along the lines of, How Cred: dare you think I would? Ever talk to you if I'm not getting paid for it?
108:35
Speaker A
DonAlt: Yeah, how could I stomach it ever if Cred: Yeah, it's awful. DonAlt: I wasn't being being paid for it exactly.
108:41
Speaker A
Cred: Exactly, but that's the TLDR. Cred: I think we'll probably pop in to do some ad hoc, Cred: unsponsored, Casual Friday shows, which would be really cool, but yeah, Cred: there's. It's just transparently, a bit of a weird situation. Because of my
108:58
Speaker A
Cred: technically professional affiliation, that limits the type of Cred: content that I can participate in. And Kraken's not renewing, and because I Cred: really can't touch a lot of stuff, that's Kraken, that's not Kraken Cred: aligned. It makes life difficult but Don has like eight kids and lives in a
109:15
Speaker A
Cred: mansion. So money is important. And also he's been lying to you about his BTC.
109:18
Speaker A
Cred: Longs the the whole time. So whatever sponsorship money he can get, he Cred: absolutely needs. Because it's it's dire straits. Otherwise, he's one medical Cred: emergency away from being evicted, so it's tough. Out here, I hope DonAlt: Yeah.
109:31
Speaker A
Cred: you all understand and can share your sympathies in the comment section. DonAlt: No, but all all trolling aside, like we DonAlt: don't, we don't, we don't have anyone lined up.
109:42
Speaker A
DonAlt: so it's kind of like we are just kind of like DonAlt: sitting here. Being cognizant of the fact that we've barely managed to keep DonAlt: a schedule. As is with being forced to do it.
109:54
Speaker A
DonAlt: and now it's kind, like, probably DonAlt: probably gonna be like a little bit of like, on off, DonAlt: on off. Like we have been for the last, what?
110:06
Speaker A
DonAlt: Two years, almost now right now, one year, two years, I don't remember. DonAlt: but yeah, it's basically back to going, going the old way.
110:15
Speaker A
DonAlt: Where, like, we sometimes show up, sometimes don't. and DonAlt: then maybe we get like a partner again. And DonAlt: then, like, technically, CRED couldn't do it.
110:29
Speaker A
DonAlt: which is like a little bit of a of a silly situation to be in. So until DonAlt: further notice, it's just gonna be like, every now and then we're gonna, DonAlt: we're gonna do a show and we'll see what happens in the future.
110:44
Speaker A
Cred: Agree, which is all the more reason to subscribe to the channel to not miss Cred: any more episodes like this video if you haven't already. We do appreciate Cred: all your comments, so thank you for those. Feel free, free to leave one. We
110:55
Speaker A
Cred: do read the positive ones as well, I promise. The negative part is only like, Cred: half true. We appreciate you guys for pitching in. Thank you to Cred: Kraken for supporting the show. It's been wonderful working with them. Our link
111:05
Speaker A
Cred: is still active and available if you want to join one of the longest running Cred: exchanges in crypto with a ton of product offerings. That's all from us.
111:12
Speaker A
Cred: Hope you all have a wonderful weekend and we'll see you at some point.
111:17
Speaker A
DonAlt: Bye-bye.
Topics:BitcoinBTCcryptocurrencytechnical analysiscrypto tradingmonthly closeresistanceprice actionmarket volatilityKraken Pro

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