稀土战争：中美贸易战全面升级的博弈 — Transcript

Hello everyone. This is Erye's story. Just today, the Sino-US trade war, which had originally died down, has undergone a major change. Trump posted two posts in a row, announcing all tariffs except for restrictions. From November 1st, imposing a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods.

And Trump also said I was supposed to meet with President Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in South Korea in two weeks.

And Trump also said, I was supposed to meet with President Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in South Korea in two weeks.

After Trump's post The US stock market plummeted It can be said that everyone is not optimistic about the trade prospects of the two major countries, China and the United States.

But now there seems to be no reason to do so. In fact, the meeting with Xi Jinping at the end of this month was cancelled.

A truce was reached Why are we suddenly playing house like kids now? Both sides fell out at the same time.

After Trump's post, the US stock market plummeted. It can be said that everyone is not optimistic about the trade prospects of the two major countries, China and the United States.

The first is the rare earth export control announcement issued by the Ministry of Commerce on October 9th.

Now you might find it strange. Clearly, we had already taken a step back a few months ago.

All included in the control scope The second notice was issued by the Ministry of Transport on October 10th.

A truce was reached. Why are we suddenly playing house like kids now? Both sides fell out at the same time.

A port fee of 400 yuan per ton is charged. And the price is adjusted every six months.

Has the trade war reached a stage of full escalation? The escalation of the trade war stems from two official notices issued by the Chinese Communist Party.

What caused Trump to be so furious? Because October 14th This is the starting time when the United States will impose port fees on Chinese ships.

The first is the rare earth export control announcement issued by the Ministry of Commerce on October 9th.

US$50 per ton The ships built in China The price is USD 18 per ton or USD 120 per container.

On the basis of the original rare earth export control, further expanded the scope. Rare earth related technical equipment, raw materials and auxiliary materials, as well as heavy rare earth oxides, compounds, permanent magnetic materials, etc.

A Chinese 10,000-ton trade cargo ship arrived in the United States The minimum port docking fee is US$500,000.

All included in the control scope. The second notice was issued by the Ministry of Transport on October 10th.

How big an impact will this move by the United States have on China? Very large According to data from research by Clarkson, the world's largest shipbroker Ranking by tonnage China is currently the sixth largest flag state in the world

Announcement on the collection of special port fees for US vessels. This announcement says, from October 14th, U.S.-owned, operated, registered, built, or flagged vessels will be subject to collection of special port fees. That is, in the future, American commercial ships will only need to dock at Chinese ports.

What's even more terrible is... China is also the world's largest shipbuilding country. Only built in China in 2024 Ships account for 53% of the global shipbuilding industry More than half Currently, nearly a quarter of the world's total water trade ships are made in China.

A port fee of 400 yuan per ton is charged. And the price is adjusted every six months.

This is not a small amount. The trade between China and the United States has been in the trade war for the past few years.

Price increases year by year. In everyone's impression, in the past Sino-US trade war, the CCP is always acting passively. So why did they take the initiative at this point in time?

I can't make much money anyway. Your shipping fee has increased so much. So what to do?

What caused Trump to be so furious? Because October 14th is the starting time when the United States will impose port fees on Chinese ships.

Is that what Trump said? Is it to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry? It's well known The US shipbuilding industry was once extremely prosperous It is the world's number one But in modern times That is 2024.

On October 3rd, U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a notice. He announced that starting from October 14th, Chinese ships entering U.S. ports, including vessels in operation and construction and all foreign-built car carriers, will be imposing additional fees. Among them, ships owned by Chinese entities,

1941 After the Pearl Harbor incident The US government launched a massive shipbuilding mobilization program Through federal grants and temporary mobilization mechanisms In just a few years, the United States' shipbuilding capacity has become the world's first By 1943 The total tonnage of ships produced by US shipyards is 19.4 million tons per year.

US$50 per ton. The ships built in China, the price is USD 18 per ton or USD 120 per container.

How terrifying was the US's shipbuilding capabilities at that time? At its peak in 1943 The United States launches an average of three Liberty ships of 7,000 tons or more every day The fastest time from construction to launching is only four days

In short, this announcement by the U.S. Customs is for all Chinese registered or a Chinese-built ship. When you arrive at a US port, all charges are based on tonnage. This is also known as plucking feathers from a passing goose.

By the end of World War II The total tonnage of various transport ships and warships built by the United States exceeds 50 million tons Accounting for more than 70% of the world's total shipbuilding volume The absolute overlord But after the end of World War II

A Chinese 10,000-ton trade cargo ship arrived in the United States. The minimum port docking fee is US$500,000.

Not so many anymore America's surplus shipyards have nowhere to go He had no choice but to close down a large number of shipyards.

This amount is extremely exaggerated. Your shipping cost has increased so much. That will inevitably affect the cost and price of terminal products.

After the economic recovery in the 1960s Especially after the demand for ships in Europe has picked up again The US shipbuilding industry has not caught up with this trend.

How big an impact will this move by the United States have on China? Very large. According to data from research by Clarkson, the world's largest shipbroker, ranking by tonnage, China is currently the sixth largest flag state in the world.

During this period Japan and South Korea through government support and technological innovation The shipbuilding industry in both countries has grown rapidly The result In the 1970s Shipbuilding costs in the United States are 30% to 50% higher than in Japan

That is, the total tonnage of trading ships registered in China is as high as 92 million tons.

Japan and South Korea have replaced the United States as the two pillars of the world's shipbuilding industry.

What's even more terrible is... China is also the world's largest shipbuilding country. Only built in China in 2024, ships account for 53% of the global shipbuilding industry. More than half. Currently, nearly a quarter of the world's total water trade ships are made in China.

Completely lost control To make matters worse, Since the 1990s After the reform and opening up, China also joined the competition in the shipbuilding industry And with cheaper labor and materials And the Chinese people's consistent spirit of hard work and perseverance

According to estimates by British maritime intelligence companies, according to the data of Chinese ships docking in the United States in 2024, the costs of China's trade with the United States will increase in the future between $17 billion and $23 billion.

2006 China's shipbuilding completion volume surpasses Japan's for the first time Ranked second in the world Second only to South Korea Only four years later That is, in 2010 China's shipbuilding completion volume, order volume and backlog of orders are comprehensive.

This is not a small amount. The trade between China and the United States has been in the trade war for the past few years.

Watching others make money in the manufacturing field where they are good at It's not that the United States doesn't want to They are trapped in the hole they dug themselves.

Already very fragile. This suddenly increased the cost so much. Then the impact on the entire trade industry chain is very big. Look at the small commodities sold in Yiwu, Zhejiang to the United States.

It has had a fatal impact on the industry During the decline of the American shipbuilding industry The Jones Act plays this complex role.

I can't make much money anyway. Your shipping fee has increased so much. So what to do?

Commonly known as the Jones Act Because at that time, the old European countries such as Britain, France and Germany were shipbuilding It is also the leader in the shipping industry America still can't drink soup Therefore, in order to protect the local shipbuilding and transportation industries

The CCP has introduced countermeasures based on this structural principle. That's understandable. So, why does the United States take such a heavy hand on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries?

These four conditions In fact, it completely excludes the possibility of other countries competing in the shipbuilding industry in the United States.

Is that what Trump said? Is it to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry? It's well known. The US shipbuilding industry was once extremely prosperous. It is the world's number one. But in modern times, that is 2024,

Not to mention improving production efficiency Reduce manufacturing costs The glory of the American shipbuilding industry during World War II That's because under the wartime system The whole country worked together to unleash the strength of American industry But in peacetime

the US's shipbuilding tonnage is less than one percent of the world's shipbuilding industry. Falling at the speed of light. So how was this big pit dug?

So after the Jones Act came out counterproductive After World War II Severely restricting the development of the US shipbuilding industry Around this bill A huge vested interest group has been formed Including shipyards, trade unions, industrial workers, etc.

1941, after the Pearl Harbor incident, the US government launched a massive shipbuilding mobilization program. Through federal grants and temporary mobilization mechanisms, in just a few years, the United States' shipbuilding capacity has become the world's first. By 1943, the total tonnage of ships produced by US shipyards is 19.4 million tons per year.

The drive for greater efficiency This has led to increasingly high shipbuilding costs in the United States.

It was almost equivalent to the total shipbuilding capacity of other countries in the world at that time.

A standard product tanker at the time If the construction cost in Japan and South Korea is 50 million US dollars Then in the United States This cost as much as $150 million.

How terrifying was the US's shipbuilding capabilities at that time? At its peak in 1943, the United States launches an average of three Liberty ships of 7,000 tons or more every day. The fastest time from construction to launching is only four days.

What about subsidies and support for traditional heavy industries? It is relatively reduced The already weak American shipbuilding industry is in decline.

This kind of ship, in just a few years, the United States built 2,710 ships.

There are no more shipyards available to build civilian ships. By 2024 The US shipbuilding industry accounts for less than 0.04% of the world's total.

By the end of World War II, the total tonnage of various transport ships and warships built by the United States exceeds 50 million tons, accounting for more than 70% of the world's total shipbuilding volume. The absolute overlord. But after the end of World War II,

48 million tons One hundred times that of the United States In such a stark contrast Trump wants to bring shipbuilding back to the U.S. by charging port fees How is that possible?

most countries are in the stage of economic recovery. The demand for new shipbuilding has plummeted.

How can I return to the expensive US mainland? And ah Let's say without contempt Given the current size of the U.S. shipbuilding industry I gave you an order.

Not so many anymore. America's surplus shipyards have nowhere to go. He had no choice but to close down a large number of shipyards.

No respect for Trump at all Countermeasures were introduced at an extremely fast speed But in the two punches delivered by the CCP Only rare earth's punch is the most deadly Charging docking fees for American ships is just a symbolic counterattack.

Many skilled industrial workers and engineers were also forced to change careers. But the shipbuilding industry is a highly cyclical industry.

That is, ships registered in the United States The total tonnage is approximately 11.7 million tons Ranked 20th in the world and Due to the long-term trade deficit between the United States and China In fact, there are not many American merchant ships docking in China.

After the economic recovery in the 1960s, especially after the demand for ships in Europe has picked up again, the US shipbuilding industry has not caught up with this trend.

The CCP's real trump card is rare earths Since the trade war started this year The CCP is well prepared.

Shipbuilding is a mixed industry that is both labor-intensive and technology-intensive. Labor and material costs are the biggest. The United States entered an era of high welfare and high wages after the war. This has resulted in high labor and material costs in the United States.

How did China become the world's monopoly supplier? The so-called rare earth Rare earth metals It contains seventeen metal elements including scandium, yttrium and lanthanide metals.

During this period, Japan and South Korea, through government support and technological innovation, the shipbuilding industry in both countries has grown rapidly. The result: in the 1970s, shipbuilding costs in the United States are 30% to 50% higher than in Japan,

For example, the three metals neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium They are the core materials for making rare earth permanent magnets It is the driving motor of new energy vehicles, wind turbines and high-end robots, etc.

60% to 80% higher than South Korea. Such a big cost gap. This directly caused the US shipbuilding industry to lose its price competitiveness.

For example, the core components of a missile As well as some core components of radar systems and advanced fighter jets, etc.

Japan and South Korea have replaced the United States as the two pillars of the world's shipbuilding industry.

Rare earths are the salt of industry It is not used much Just a little bit for each product But you're missing this You can't open the pan or cook.

By 1980, the US shipbuilding industry's share of the world's total has fallen to less than 5%.

The world's proven rare earth reserves are as high as 130 million tons. According to the current annual output of 390,000 tons It has been mined for more than 300 years.

Completely lost control. To make matters worse, since the 1990s, after the reform and opening up, China also joined the competition in the shipbuilding industry. And with cheaper labor and materials,

This rare earth element It is very active due to its chemical properties It cannot exist independently in nature.

and the Chinese people's consistent spirit of hard work and perseverance,

It will also cause great environmental pollution Actually Most countries do not use much rare earths.

soon became a heavyweight player in the shipbuilding industry. In just over a decade, it surpassed Japan and South Korea.

It's not worth it. It may not be possible to do it So why did China start doing this?

2006, China's shipbuilding completion volume surpasses Japan's for the first time, ranked second in the world, second only to South Korea. Only four years later, that is, in 2010, China's shipbuilding completion vol...

It also caused a lot of environmental pollution But after the reform and opening up As the global demand for rare earths increases China's rare earth mining and separation technology has also developed rapidly Environmental protection measures are gradually being implemented

By the 1990s China has gradually become the world's largest producer and exporter of rare earths Rare earth production accounts for more than 90% of the world's total But at that time, China's rare earth industry They are all small businesses

In a state of fighting alone The state of disorderly mining and low-price export Rare earths are like coal It was sold at almost bargain price.

Until 2010 The CCP began to realize the strategic value of rare earths. Then what?

Start shutting down and turning Large-scale mergers of rare earth companies Four state-owned enterprises were established to monopolize China Rare Earth Group, Northern Rare Earth Group, Southern Rare Earth Group and Guangsheng Rare Earth Group This moment It forms a monopoly advantage

These state-owned enterprises have upgraded their technology and extended their industrial chains. Gained dominance in global rare earth refining and processing Became the leader in global rare earth supply and high-end applications Then you might find it strange.

Since rare earths are so important Why don't other countries come and share a piece of the pie?

Speaking truthfully Technologies like rare earth extraction It's not really a high-tech But it requires large-scale production to form a complete industrial chain This will make the price competitive It is not just a question of whether to pay attention to environmental protection

Even less environmentally friendly than China There are many countries with rich rare earth reserves.

For example, Vietnam Why can't it work? Because rare earth metals are not used in laboratories It is used in the manufacture of industrial products You don’t have a large market or application It is impossible to establish a long-term sustainable production chain

There is no corresponding technological progress In this regard It is difficult for any country in the world to compete with China Let me give you an example For example, the phased array radar of a fighter jet It was not very popular before

It can only be used in fighter jets, missiles, and warships. Because it's too expensive.

The gallium nitride devices are made based on rare earth elements. In the 1990s Each one costs hundreds of thousands of dollars.

But Nowadays, even China's weather station radars use phased arrays. Why? This is because China has relied on the advantages of the rare earth industry chain in the past two years.

Achieved a technological breakthrough The cost of gallium nitride devices has been reduced to a bargain price.

The cost has now dropped to a few thousand or even a few hundred dollars.

This price Other countries in the world Even the United States can't do it. Of course you can't compete.

What's even more terrible is... rare earth elements If you want to obtain high purity products It needs to be refined This rare earth refining technology Because the threshold and cost are very high Currently, only China has achieved industrialization

90% of the world's production capacity is in China I'm going to tell you a little-known fact that you may find hard to believe.

The United States actually developed its own rare earth mines a long time ago In the mountain pass of California However, there is no way to refine rare earth minerals in the United States domestically.

So these rare earth minerals mined in California He also wants to send it to China for refining Then shipped back to the U.S.

Because of China's monopoly in the industry in recent years Already surpassing other competitors in the world All done.

So even if the United States is unwilling He can only send it to China for processing Because other countries cannot process it Of course With the technological strength of the United States If he wants to pursue this Of course, we can catch up with China

But how much will it cost? You need to know China has gone through seventy years This has formed technological advantages and industry monopoly Even if you are chasing the United States It will be hard to catch up in ten years.

I have said so much about the background of rare earth Maybe everyone will understand better Why did the CCP frequently use rare earths as a trump card in this trade war?

Because it actually works In this field Other countries in the world have no countermeasures at all And now the high-tech industry It has become a pillar industry in developed countries.

You can't use it yet Facing the CCP’s rare earth control The pain is very intense.

and Since the start of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, He has consciously reduced the proportion of Sino-US trade.

Trade volume with the United States has been declining year by year What about trade dependence on the United States?

It has also been greatly reduced so When Trump once again played the trade war card this year You can see it The CCP has been prepared for this.

And almost every time he strikes back immediately I won't bargain with you at all.

Because they do have more cards than other countries. I think What everyone is most concerned about now is The comprehensive escalation of the Sino-US trade war Will it be like the previous times where there was much thunder but little rain?

Let's end it by compromising with each other Or will you tear your face off and fight to the end?

Before answering this question Let me first talk about Trump's fundamental purpose in launching a trade war.

The biggest move Trump made in the country this year was tax cuts. Big and Beautiful Act You cut taxes This means a reduction in government revenue Increased debt How much has it increased?

A full $5 trillion The U.S. government's revenue has decreased But the expenses are not reduced at all.

This is not The U.S. government has been shut down for the past few days due to budget issues.

It hasn't recovered yet. Government shutdown So, to put it bluntly, it's all about money?

So Trump can only get money through other channels So which channel is the fastest?

tariff What did Trump say about bringing industries back to the United States? Those are just excuses.

He started a trade war The most direct and fundamental purpose is to use tariffs to fill the fiscal gap.

This also led to him often choosing dishes based on the food he was eating.

If you are facing a weak country Then the tariffs will be added. But if you encounter a tough guy like China Encountering resistance Then bargain Changing orders every day I don't know if you have noticed This comprehensive escalation of the trade war

China's sanctions against the United States will take effect immediately after being announced. It's quite resolute.

But the tariffs announced by Trump will not take effect until November 1st. There are still twenty days left It doesn't take effect immediately Is it that Trump himself lacks confidence?

Leaving room for negotiation? After all Just a few months ago When Trump announced the 125% tariff on China The CCP has not compromised either.

In the end, both sides made concessions. This time the CCP came prepared I guess it's even more impossible to compromise.

It is more likely that both sides will repeat the old routine. Sit down and negotiate again Why do I think the CCP is unlikely to compromise?

You may have noticed In recent days Iron ore trade between China and Australia Made a big news China halts iron ore imports from Australia The reason is that Australia is required to settle in RMB.

Otherwise, they will turn to importing iron ore from South America and Africa. In the past, both parties settled their accounts in US dollars.

And Australia has the right to set prices But now the CCP has tied up the domestic steel companies Bargaining with Australia as a whole No longer like before Each steel company negotiates the price on its own compete with each other

Lowering prices Do it yourself Since Chinese companies are the largest customers of Australian iron ore This also led to Australia's BHP Billiton finally giving in.

For the first time, it was agreed to settle in RMB This person is very, very profitable to the CCP.

Because it also means He can bypass the US dollar payment system So we can say During the first Sino-US trade war in 2018 The CCP was caught off guard Overall disadvantage I can only bite the bullet and seek peace

But times change This time the Sino-US trade war The situation has completely changed The United States no longer has an advantage.

Frankly speaking For great countries like China and the United States that are considerate Fighting a trade war It's a lose-lose situation after all.

It's just a matter of who is more seriously injured. I said this a few months ago on the show about the trade war.

Totalitarian systems don't have to worry about the reaction of the domestic people. In the confrontation between countries Often more patient and resistant If the American people face the same economic difficulties Then maybe the mood will not be so calm.

Trump's cards will only get fewer and fewer So it is foreseeable Although the Sino-US trade war has been fully escalated The situation is already tense, but There is still a possibility of sitting down for negotiations And this possibility is very high

In today's multipolar world Whether it is China, which is facing downward economic pressure Or the United States, which has lost its allies?

It is impossible to completely suppress the other party But for us ordinary people In such an environment of great power games We still need to strengthen our awareness of financial risks Because the overall financial environment may get worse

If the industry you are engaged in is related to foreign trade finance Then you still need to prepare more Keep more options for retreat good Thank you for watching today's Erye Story See you next time