Game Theory #4: The Immigration Trap — Transcript

Today we will look at immigration. Who wins the game of immigration and who loses? Why do they win? Why do they lose?

technical institutes and then after college they go United States to do graduate work. Then they go on to Silicon Valley to become uh engineers, some become doctors. But Indians as a demographic are very successful. Then um you have the other Asian groups. So, Japanese, Korean, Filipino, Chinese also do very well. Uh, East Asians do very well in school and East Asians are known for being very hard workers. The white people are the majority and they are the average, okay? And they

Okay, so let's look at the United States, which is where most immigrants go. And as you can see from this chart, there are certain ethnic groups that do better than other ethnic groups.

other ethnic groups specifically Latinos and blacks who do not do well economically. Okay. So the traditional explanation is that it's just that certain cultures prize education more than other cultures. In fact, some extremists will go on to say that genetically East Asians are just smarter than everyone else. Okay, so this is the PISA rankings. This is from 2018. the pieces is um the program for international student assessment. So every three years the OECD which is which is international

So, the Indian people make the most money in America. And this makes sense because India has a very competitive college system where only the best and brightest get into their technical institutes. Then after college, they go to the United States to do graduate work.

nations that are below average, meaning that they will suffer economically. Now, as you can see, the nations that do really well are actually based primarily in East Asia and they are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, China. That's why a lot of people believe that in the future, East Asia will come to dominate the world economically. In fact, there are many who believe that already East Asia dominates the world economically, especially China. Then you have these

Then they go on to Silicon Valley to become engineers; some become doctors. But Indians as a demographic are very successful. Then you have the other Asian groups.

They don't have the infrastructure, the logistics to actually have students take tests. And so what you can see about the nations in red is first of all they're primarily based in a region okay Latin and South America but also you can actually group them also by religion okay Islam okay Muslims don't do well on the pizza and that's why there's great fear that uh Islamic countries will fall behind economically also So another concern is immigration. So what's been happening is that um

So, Japanese, Korean, Filipino, Chinese also do very well. East Asians do very well in school, and East Asians are known for being very hard workers. The white people are the majority, and they are the average, okay?

don't do well economically. Um, on the other hand, they're moving to these very wealthy nations and that's causing a lot of conflict. So, what's driving this conflict? Okay, so again, from the pizza rankings, it seems as though East Asians will come to dominate the world. The problem is that when you actually look at American society and you look at who succeeds, it turns out East Asians don't do as well as you think they do. Well, if East Asians are the best students in school

And they make about 70,000 US dollars a year. This is just average income. But then what's troubling is that as you go lower, you find that there are certain ethnic groups that don't do well economically.

diversify the leadership of American corporations. And it turns out that white women, okay, have done the best, white women have been the most successful in climbing the corporate ladder in America. Um, what's interesting now then is that Latino and African-American men, okay, they do okay. Not great, but they do okay. And who is underperforming are East Asian men. Okay, you can see this from this map where the growth in East Asian man it's pretty steady. Now there

They include, of course, Mexicans, Latinos, as well as Black Americans who traditionally have been slaves in America. So the question for us today is why is it that there are certain ethnic groups, specifically East Asian groups, that do well economically, and then you have other ethnic groups, specifically Latinos and Blacks, who do not do well economically?

against because historically people believe that East Asian men have not been discriminated against even though that's not that's not correct. Okay. So you can argue it's really DEI but another way of understanding this is figure out who succeeds in corporate America. And the answer is if you look at the qualities of successful uh CEOs well first of all they tend to be aggressive okay or assertive

Okay. So the traditional explanation is that it's just that certain cultures prize education more than other cultures. In fact, some extremists will go on to say that genetically East Asians are just smarter than everyone else.

They're they tend to be um more cautious and they tend not to speak a lot. Okay. Um, so East Asian men are not known for being articulate, which is something that you need in order to do well in a corporate boardroom where there's a lot of debate, where there's a lot of argumentation, where where you have to present your view, your opinion very coherently. Okay. So, what's interesting is that the skills that you need to do well in the corporate boardroom, um, East Asian men don't have. And you

Okay, so this is the PISA rankings. This is from 2018. The PISA is the Program for International Student Assessment. So every three years the OECD, which is an international organization around the world, organizes tests for 14-year-olds in three subjects: math, science, and reading.

their status, okay, status in America is not as great as their income would suggest. In fact, you could make the argument that East Asian men are among um the groups that have the lowest status in America, which makes no sense. But again, unfortunately, the evidence bears us out, especially okay, the dating market. Okay. So again, remember what is it that men want to do? Well, they want to obtain status so that they can find the most attractive mate. Okay. So, um we're going to now look at statistics from

Based on these results, the OECD, which is primarily concerned with economic development, forecasts a nation's ability to do well economically in the next 10, 20, 30 years. As you can see from this map, there are certain countries that do outstanding on the PISA.

then there's more interest. 29%. That's a pretty significant difference. Okay. So, this is just a first reply. Now, what's interesting is that um if you're an Asian uh male, okay, what's interesting is that people are less likely to respond to you. Okay. So, this is another map that shows us stat statistics from the uh dating website. Okay. So, this is um white woman. Okay. Let's look at white woman and there and how interested they are in other ethnicities. If you are

The nations in green do really well. The nations in yellow are average, and then there are these red nations that are below average, meaning that they will suffer economically. Now, as you can see, the nations that do really well are actually based primarily in East Asia, and they are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, China.

that in the dating market, one group that is most discriminated against are ease Asian men. Okay. Another group um that's also discriminated against heavily are black women. Okay. All right. Okay. So if you if you look at marriage patterns, there's also discriminate discrimination against East Asian men. Okay. So 20% of East Asian women will marry white guys. Okay? So, if you are an East Asian woman, you are attracted to white guys and you're attracted to East Asian guys primarily.

That's why a lot of people believe that in the future, East Asia will come to dominate the world economically. In fact, there are many who believe that already East Asia dominates the world economically, especially China. Then you have these other nations in red that will suffer economically.

reality is that if you're an East Asian man in America, people don't find you that attractive. Okay? So, they did a lot of studies about the East uh about the dating market in America. And the radical conclusion that they have is that is this. Okay. A white woman okay is more attracted to a white man than an Asian man. And how do we know this statistically? A if a white man makes $62,000 a year, for the Asian man to be as attractive to her, the man, the Asian man needs to make

You have Latin and South America, which traditionally have not done very well on the PISA. You also have Africa and the Middle East that suffer on the PISA, and then you have Indonesia, Malaysia, these countries that don't do well on the PISA.

white woman, not even the the most attractive white woman. So, this is actually a pretty stark situation for Asian men. And so, you have a really strange situation where Asian men, East Asian men, did everything right. They they did exactly what they were supposed to do. They went to school, worked hard in school, got the best grades, then worked hard at their jobs and got and did very well in their jobs. But now two things have happened because they follow the rules

The nations in gray, by the way, are nations that don't have the development in order to actually have students take tests. Okay? They don't have the infrastructure, the logistics to actually have students take tests.

social economic standing in America. All right. All right. So, this leads us to a very very stark uh disparity, right? So, let's look at this guys. You have East Asian men and here's how they play the game of immigration. Uh they do well in school. Okay. They have good jobs, employment. Yes, they have uh they're not on welfare. Okay, they don't go to jail. Okay, and then you look at um other minorities. Okay, specifically Hispanic, black, and um Muslim. Okay.

And so what you can see about the nations in red is, first of all, they're primarily based in a region, okay, Latin and South America, but also you can actually group them by religion, okay? Islam. Muslims don't do well on the PISA, and that's why there's great fear that Islamic countries will fall behind economically also.

they are much more likely to win the game. Okay. So, how can we explain this? And the explanation is actually pretty straightforward, but it's actually very disconcerting or very disturbing. The the answer is if someone invites you to play his game, don't agree to play by the rules because the game is out so that you will lose. Otherwise, why would he invite you? Think of a casino, right? A casino is like please come in and play our game. Do you think a casino is fair? If the

So another concern is immigration. So what's been happening is that immigrants from Latin South America have been moving to the United States, and Islamic nations, the people have been moving to Europe.

married off to white men. The most attractive of all Asian women will be married off to white guys, whereas East Asian guys will make their money and then stay at home and play video games all the time. Okay, the game is rigged. So the only logical strategy according to game theory to this situation is to break the game, cheat. Okay? And that's what the other minorities are doing. And how do you do that? Well, you don't play the game. You don't go to you don't go to school and obey the teacher.

Okay. Now a lot of this immigration is driven by war. So nations like Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq have seen themselves destroyed because of America's war on terror, forcing millions of refugees to seek better opportunities in Europe.

sense, guys? All right. All right. So okay. So again immigration is very important because all in the world poor people are going to rich countries to seek better opportunities right so it's really um North America primarily United States Canada the United States then you have um Australia um New Zealand and Europe. Okay. And countries that are going to these place places are China, East Asia basically, um and you have the um Latinos, the Africans, uh Middle East. Okay.

Okay. And so this is causing a lot of conflict because on one hand, these immigrants don't do well economically. On the other hand, they're moving to these very wealthy nations, and that's causing a lot of conflict.

Okay. In Europe, they have a huge Muslim problem. These Muslims are less likely to integrate. Uh, they don't do very well in school, but they will claim welfare. they will have lots and lots of babies which is a drain on the uh economy of these nations and what this means is that in the year uh 2050 okay in the year 2050 this is what's going to happen in Sweden of the population will be Muslim in the UK 17% in France 17% in Germany 11% the in Italy it'll be 12%. Okay, so it

So, what's driving this conflict? Okay, so again, from the PISA rankings, it seems as though East Asians will come to dominate the world. The problem is that when you actually look at American society and you look at who succeeds, it turns out East Asians don't do as well as you think they do.

money but look at their advantages. Okay. First of all they are cohesive. Okay. Because of their religion. Okay. They are energetic because you're young. Okay? And they're united because quite honestly uh the Europeans don't really like them. They're they are an outcast. They're considered an enemy by the Europeans. So if trends continue then it is most likely that Muslims will will control Europe in 25 years time. Okay? Does it make sense? But not only that, but you look at

Well, if East Asians are the best students in school and they go on to the most prestigious colleges and they are the smartest with the highest IQ, you would think they would come to dominate American society. But that's not true, actually.

All right. So, the white population is declining. Okay. Right now, it's a majority, but by 2050 it will no longer be the majority. Um, Asians are increasing by a bit, but not that much. Okay. But the real growth is in Hispanics. In Hispanics. Okay. And not only are they going in absolute numbers, but again they're are much more young, much more energetic uh group who are more likely to have children. Okay? And they are united because they are Catholics. So they have a common religion, they

So this is a chart of new CEOs, and what this means is that from about 2000 American corporations, they tried their best to bring in more diversity into the corporate boardroom.

the nation. Okay? Does that make sense, guys? Any questions before I move on? Okay. The problem with this is that there is no way that the majority, the white people will just sit back and let this happen. Okay? You're going to have a lot of violence, a lot of conflict because from the white perspective, this is population replacement. Okay? If we just let demographic trends continue, if these outsiders just have a lot of kids and we don't have the kids, then eventually our culture will be

Okay. Traditionally, CEOs of American corporations have been white, middle-aged men. So they're trying to diversify the leadership of American corporations.

Okay. So remember that after the ice age, hunter gatherers spread around. Okay. Okay. You have hund gatherers around. But then because as the uh earth was warming this allowed for agriculture and so a new group came into being that focused on agriculture. Okay, these are the farmers. These are farmers and they arrived primarily in Anatolia and the Leavant and Mesopotamia because that was the warmest part of the globe that was most amendable to agriculture. But then if

And it turns out that white women have done the best. White women have been the most successful in climbing the corporate ladder in America.

the steps, but remember from last semester we discussed the steps and how because it's grassland, you can't actually farm there or it's very hard to farm there. So they develop a new economy called uh nomadic pasturalism which is to say that they raised sheep, goat and cows and they migrated from one area of the grassland to the next. Okay. And as a result they became very strong very aggressive people and again because of overpopulation because of climate change these people are now forced to migrate to Europe. Okay they migrate to Europe and what happened now? Well, now there's a war that lasts 100 years, 20 years in which the pneumatic pastoralists, the Annayia or the Puerto

What's interesting now then is that Latino and African-American men, okay, they do okay. Not great, but they do okay. And who is underperforming are East Asian men.

were extremely violent and chaotic. And this forces groups to constantly migrate to other places in search of safety. And in each time there is population replacement. Okay. Primarily in the elite. Okay. So we so there are very few instances of um situ where groups come together and they are peaceful. No because you you only have one elite and and one elite must replace the other elite. Okay? Does doesn't make sense guys? All right. So if this is historically the situation,

Okay, you can see this from this map where the growth in East Asian men is pretty steady. Now there are different reasons for this.

All right. Okay. So this is Europe. This is South America. Uh USA Canada, um Australia New Zealand. Okay. All right. So you have Spain and Spain because of the Ottoman Empire, Spain could not access the uh East Indies trade. Okay. So it had to figure out new ways to access uh East Asia, China. Uh China India because that was where a lot of spices were. Okay. And there's huge demand for spices. So they started to chart new new areas. Okay. Spain and Portugal primarily. And what they discovered was

Okay, one reason is just that there's something called DEI. DEI in America stands for diversity, equity, inclusion. And the idea of DEI is to redress historical wrongs.

England start to play this game as well. Okay. And they also sent colonists. But the problem was that there was no large population to enslave also there were a lot especially United States there were a lot of aggressive uh Indians. Okay. Natives. And so the solution was the United States after one independence from Britain, it welcomed immigrants from Europe specifically um Ireland, uh Germany, Poland, these places. The reason why is they needed to displace the natives. Okay?

And one historical wrong is the fact that women and minorities have been discriminated against in American society, and therefore they should be given better opportunities, more opportunities to succeed.

where you could go to a new place and become a citizen. Okay? Usually if you went to a new place, you went because you were a slave. You were conquered in war and you went as cheap labor. Okay? So in so America they welcome you as um citizens if you're willing to contribute and they allow you to get rich if you worked hard. Okay. Now fast forward and America becomes an empire because it's allowing all this energy to concentrate in America. You have World War II. Okay? You have World War II

Okay. So you can argue that because of DEI, East Asian men have been discriminated against because historically people believe that East Asian men have not been discriminated against, even though that's not correct.

people to get rich and be happy. And so Europe, if you want to be like us, if we want to prevent World War II, then you have to become an open society as well and welcome immigrants just like we do. Okay? And that's why we have the situation that where we have where now uh Muslims are going to Europe and others are going to America. Okay. And what um we need to recognize is that immigration it's a new game developed because of certain historical circumstances but it's not sustainable

Okay. So you can argue it's really DEI, but another way of understanding this is to figure out who succeeds in corporate America.

have access to the best looking woman which is ultimately what every um man is looking for. Okay. Status, attractive woman power money. All right. Does that make sense, guys? All right. Any questions?

And the answer is if you look at the qualities of successful CEOs, well, first of all, they tend to be aggressive or assertive.

Okay. Um, that's a great question and I'm sure everyone's everyone's feeling with this question which is like what can we do about this situation? Well, I mean the problem is, and I hate to say this, but immigration is not natural. Okay? And what I mean by that is that if you're born into a community, what is natural is for you to want to help this community grow and develop. You want to

Another way of saying this is that they have high risk tolerance or they take chances. Also, to navigate corporations you need high EQ, emotional intelligence, empathy, or collaboration skills.

they're not going they're not going to be able to conform to the community. Okay. And historically these people have been killed by the communities and so it's natural for them to get up and leave. Okay. So uh but that's only a small group of people. So what's what is natural is for people to want to just stay where they are because they love their neighbors because they love their family and they want to help the community get stronger and stronger. And unfortunately because because of

Okay. So these are the skills you need in order to do well in American corporations. And unfortunately, these certain skills, the stereotype is that East Asian men don't actually have these skills.

company, get rich and all that. And you know, some people have success of doing that. But if you think about it, this is not good for China, right? as a nation, why would you encourage your best and brightest to take their skills, move somewhere else, and contri contribute to that economy rather than to your own economy? And so, we're in a very strange situation. And we are in this situation because for the longest time, America was a global hedgeimon and could write the rules of the game. And I

East Asian men tend to be much more individualistic. They tend to be more cautious, and they tend not to speak a lot.

rising as well. And so nations now are much more interested in being able to maintain their best and brightest, their talent, their human capital. And this is the way it should be. If you're born in China, then your priority ought to be like how to make China a better place. It shouldn't be like I'm work really hard in school so that I can get a visa to go study United States. That makes no sense. Okay? So, um, and look, the reality is that, um, if you states, you can make a lot of

Okay. East Asian men are not known for being articulate, which is something that you need in order to do well in a corporate boardroom where there's a lot of debate, where there's a lot of argumentation, where you have to present your view, your opinion very coherently.

status. You know, that's why I chose to come to China because I thought there were more opportunities to obtain higher status in China than in United States where I'm not white. I'm East Asian and there's going to be a lot of stereotypes and prejudice against me because I'm East Asian. Okay. And quite honestly, I was right in my assessment. All right. So I So yeah, you're you're saying what can East Asians America do about this? Right. And unfortunately, according to game

Okay. So what's interesting is that the skills that you need to do well in the corporate boardroom, East Asian men don't have.

getting by, uh, making good money, and they really don't worry about status. Okay? But the problem is that their children and grandchildren are kind of screwed over because it's going be very hard for them to uh marry. Okay? And again, there's there's a lot of East Asian men who are single and they have very and they have problems on the dating market. Okay. All right. Any more questions, guys? Is that clear?

And you can also argue that it's because East Asian men don't have these skills, they have other skills that allow them to do well in school. For example, East Asian men are more focused. They're more unitarian. They're grade obsessed.