Wall Street’s Bitcoin Move Is MUCH Bigger Than You Think!

Okay, another weekend of chop, but I think now the chop is getting to a point where it is chopping a lot of people out. Look at this. Look at this lack of volatility in Bitcoin. Now, $63,410. We are now in day 76, 76 of the chop. The good thing is that this tells me that we are going to get towards the end of the bear market. This is like really the last part of the bear market where instead of the market trying to chop you up with price, what the market is trying to do is chop, is trying to chop you up with absolute boredom. And it is no different to the other bear markets. If I look at some of the other bear markets, what we did in the other bear markets was we tested the 200-week moving average. So if you look at this metric over here, which is a 200-week moving average on the weekly, you can see we have been flirting with the 200-week moving average for a couple of weeks. This week we actually closed below the 200-week moving average, which is not unusual. It is not unusual. It happened in the last bear market as well. We broke below the 200-week moving average. We stayed there for quite a while last time. In fact, I think last time we went about 30% below the 200-week moving average. Was it 30% below the 200-week moving average before we then bounced in the bear market before the bull market, before the 2017-2018? We bounced off the 200-week moving average. We are near the end of the bear market. Now, one thing that I saw which was making me pretty bullish is what you can see is that there has not been a real move in Bitcoin. The move in Bitcoin was from what was on the weekend, $62,800 to $63,500, which is in Bitcoin language, it is not even a move. You cannot even call that a move. That is like, it is like nothing, right? But you can see that the altcoins want to move. So as soon as we get anything to do with Bitcoin moving, the altcoins actually want to move. And I want to spend some time talking about that because I think it shows you what is going to happen in the next cycle. We are at the end of this cycle. You can see every bear market is the same. The end basically kills you by boredom. Right now I want to show you. You see these bear flags. So this is the first bear flag that we had. In the first bear flag, what you will notice is we went to this level over here and then the market tried to suck us back in and gave us an increase in prices of 21% before it crashed again. If you look at the next part of the bear market, which was here, we went here and then the market gave us 35% before it actually crashed again. If you look at the last part of this, there is pretty much no move. Pretty much no move. Now, that is very similar to what actually happened in the last couple of bear markets. The first bounce quite high. The second bounce slightly less and then it is basically chop, chop, chop, chop, chop sideways. The good thing is that we are getting to the end of the cycle. The other good thing is that the altcoins are starting to respond. The altcoins are basically telling you as soon as Bitcoin gets a bid, even if it is just from 63 to 70, then the altcoins are going to start moving. So like you think about pump.fun, Bitcoin has not been moving. The trenches are getting pretty wild. And if you look at pump.fun, you can see that in the last month, pump.fun has basically gone from 16, doubled in the last month. Not the only one that has doubled. There has been a whole lot of others that have actually doubled. I will show you one or two others while we are here. So let us look at Tibber. Tibber is another one that we follow. Here we go. Also doubled pretty much in the last month. So it is saying to you that when the market, when Bitcoin actually starts moving, the market will actually start moving and we will actually start getting good returns, but the market is waiting for this cycle to end and for the next cycle to wake up. That is exactly what is happening right now. The old cycle, the one that got us here, and we must thank all the fallen soldiers that actually got us here, but the old cycle that got us here was, I want to say, the Saylor cycle. So it is like Michael Saylor buying every week. If you were to characterize the old cycle, it is that cycle over there. It is Michael Saylor tweeting about the dots, about the, the, they need more colors, they need more dots, etc., etc. That is for me indicative of the old cycle. And the things that are indicative of the old cycle are, I think, going to be a little less relevant in the new cycle. The last cycle was Saylor buying, Saylor driving the market. If you think about who brought money into the market cycle, it was Saylor. Saylor buying $50 billion or $54 billion worth of Bitcoin. But that cycle is ending. And you can see it is ending because yesterday Saylor did not even tweet. Saylor actually has not bought Bitcoin since June. So June, July, August, Saylor basically has not bought a single Bitcoin. In fact, Saylor has been a net seller of Bitcoin. He was a net seller again this week. So what did he do? I do not think he actually did anything with Bitcoin. They bought no Bitcoin this week. They increased their USD reserves by $150 million, which means that they sold MSTR at an MNAV of one. They sold MSTR and they bought STRC. He purchased another $132 million in STRC. I think that Saylor has already spent about a billion dollars or so trying to prop up STRC. STRC still is trading at $95. So, not at the $100 yet. Saylor has now spent a billion or so propping up MSTRC. You may say now, well, he has not actually bought a billion dollars worth of STRC, but he has actually sold Bitcoin to fund STRC, actual purchase of STRC. He has also sold Bitcoin to increase his cash reserves so that the market will feel more comfortable with his cash reserves so that STRC will go back to $100. And so right now you could say Saylor is in the hole for a billion dollars and when it gets to 100 the question is will he be able to buy more than a billion dollars? That is the big question. How much is he going to spend to get STRC back to $100? And then what is going to happen? If he is selling a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin to fund to get STRC to 100 and then when STRC goes to 100, he cannot buy a billion dollars, then it is a net losing game. And I suspect that you know in the old cycle Saylor powered the cycle. I suspect in the new cycle he is not the guy that is powering the new cycle. That is the bad news because, as I say, we must, we must respect all our fallen soldiers. All the people that actually got us here. Saylor actually did get us here. Maximum respect for what Saylor did. But I do not think that that model is the model that we want taking us into the new, into the new, the new cycle. The new cycle is, is, it has already been defined and the money for the new cycle is already starting to flow in. If you know where to look, you will find that money. That is what I am going to show you in the show. The old cycle is the Saylor cycle. And I will show you another thing around Saylor. We were the first ones to actually make a show about this. But you remember that when 10/10 happened, it was because the MSCI, we uncovered that as well. We uncovered the fact that when 10/10 happened, it was because the MSCI, which is one of the largest indexing agencies, index agencies in the world, they published or they were going to exclude MicroStrategy from the MSCI indices because they said, "Look, we do not want passive companies that just hold assets as part of our indices. We want companies that are actually operating companies to be in the index." Now, you remember there was a whole consultation period and eventually in January they postponed it and now this thing has reared its ugly head again. And what they are threatening to do now, we have made a whole show about this, but I will recap it for those who missed the show. Basically, what they are saying is

to get towards the end of the bear market. This is like really the last part of the bear market where instead of the market trying to chop you up with price, what the market is trying to do is chop,

is trying to chop you up with absolute boredom. And it is no different to the other bear markets. If I look at some of the other bear markets, what we did in the other bear markets was we tested the 200-week moving average. So if you look at this metric over here, which

is a 200-week moving average on the weekly, you can see we have been flirting with the 200-week moving average for a couple of weeks. This week we actually closed below the 200-week moving average, which is not unusual. It is not unusual. It happened in the last bear market as well.

We broke below the 200-week moving average. We stayed there for quite a while last time. In fact, I think last time we went about 30% below the 200-week moving average. Was it 30% below the 200-week moving average before we then bounced in the bear market before the bull market, before

the 2017-2018? We bounced off the 200-week moving average. We are near the end of the bear market.

Now, one thing that I saw which was making me pretty bullish is what you can see is that there has not been a real move in Bitcoin. The move in Bitcoin was from what was on the weekend, $62,800 to $63,500, which is in Bitcoin language, it is not even a move. You cannot even call that

a move. That is like, it is like nothing, right? But you can see that the altcoins want to move. So as soon as we get anything to do with Bitcoin moving, the altcoins actually want to move.

And I want to spend some time talking about that because I think it shows you what is going to happen in the next cycle. We are at the end of this cycle. You can see every bear market is

the same. The end basically kills you by boredom. Right now I want to show you. You see these bear flags. So this is the first bear flag that we had. In the first bear flag, what you will notice is we

went to this level over here and then the market tried to suck us back in and gave us an increase in prices of 21% before it crashed again. If you look at the next part of the bear market,

which was here, we went here and then the market gave us 35% before it actually crashed again.

If you look at the last part of this, there is pretty much no move. Pretty much no move. Now, that is very similar to what actually happened in the last couple of bear markets. The first bounce quite high. The second bounce slightly less and then it is basically chop, chop, chop, chop, chop

sideways. The good thing is that we are getting to the end of the cycle. The other good thing is that the altcoins are starting to respond. The altcoins are basically telling you as soon as Bitcoin gets a bid, even if it is just from 63 to 70, then the altcoins are going to start moving.

So like you think about pump.fun, Bitcoin has not been moving. The trenches are getting pretty wild.

And if you look at pump.fun, you can see that in the last month, pump.fun has basically gone from 16, doubled in the last month. Not the only one that has doubled. There has been a whole lot of others that have actually doubled. I will show you one or two others while we are here. So let

us look at Tibber. Tibber is another one that we follow. Here we go. Also doubled pretty much in the last month. So it is saying to you that when the market, when Bitcoin actually starts moving, the market will actually start moving and we will actually start getting good returns,

but the market is waiting for this cycle to end and for the next cycle to wake up. That is exactly what is happening right now. The old cycle, the one that got us here, and we must thank all the

fallen soldiers that actually got us here, but the old cycle that got us here was, I want to say, the Saylor cycle. So it is like Michael Saylor buying every week. If you were to characterize the old cycle, it is that cycle over there. It is Michael Saylor tweeting about the dots,

about the, the, they need more colors, they need more dots, etc., etc. That is for me indicative of the old cycle. And the things that are indicative of the old cycle are, I think, going to be a little less relevant in the new cycle. The last cycle was Saylor buying,

Saylor driving the market. If you think about who brought money into the market cycle, it was Saylor. Saylor buying $50 billion or $54 billion worth of Bitcoin. But that cycle is ending. And you can see it is ending because yesterday Saylor did not even tweet. Saylor actually

has not bought Bitcoin since June. So June, July, August, Saylor basically has not bought a single Bitcoin. In fact, Saylor has been a net seller of Bitcoin. He was a net seller again this week.

So what did he do? I do not think he actually did anything with Bitcoin. They bought no Bitcoin this week. They increased their USD reserves by $150 million, which means that they sold MSTR at an MNAV of one. They sold MSTR and they bought STRC. He purchased another $132 million in STRC.

I think that Saylor has already spent about a billion dollars or so trying to prop up STRC.

STRC still is trading at $95. So, not at the $100 yet. Saylor has now spent a billion or so propping up MSTRC. You may say now, well, he has not actually bought a billion dollars worth of STRC, but he has actually sold Bitcoin to fund STRC, actual purchase of STRC. He has also sold Bitcoin

to increase his cash reserves so that the market will feel more comfortable with his cash reserves so that STRC will go back to $100. And so right now you could say Saylor is in the hole for a billion dollars and when it gets to 100 the question is will he be able to buy more

than a billion dollars? That is the big question. How much is he going to spend to get STRC back to $100? And then what is going to happen? If he is selling a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin to fund to get STRC to 100 and then when STRC goes to 100, he cannot buy a billion dollars,

then it is a net losing game. And I suspect that you know in the old cycle Saylor powered the cycle. I suspect in the new cycle he is not the guy that is powering the new cycle. That is

the bad news because, as I say, we must, we must respect all our fallen soldiers. All the people that actually got us here. Saylor actually did get us here. Maximum respect for what Saylor did. But I do not think that that model is the model that we want taking us into the new,

into the new, the new cycle. The new cycle is, is, it has already been defined and the money for the new cycle is already starting to flow in. If you know where to look, you will find that money. That is what I am going to show you in the show. The old cycle is the Saylor cycle.

And I will show you another thing around Saylor. We were the first ones to actually make a show about this. But you remember that when 10/10 happened, it was because the MSCI, we uncovered that as well. We uncovered the fact that when 10/10 happened, it was because the MSCI,

which is one of the largest indexing agencies, index agencies in the world, they published or they were going to exclude MicroStrategy from the MSCI indices because they said, "Look, we do not want passive companies that just hold assets as part of our indices. We want companies that are

actually operating companies to be in the index." Now, you remember there was a whole consultation period and eventually in January they postponed it and now this thing has reared its ugly head again. And what they are threatening to do now, we have made a whole show about this, but I will

recap it for those who missed the show. Basically, what they are saying is that they want to exclude non-operating companies that fail new eligibility screening criteria. They want to exclude them from MSCI indices. So they are basically saying, "Look, if we deem you to be a non-operating company,

you will be excluded from MSCI indices." The problem with being excluded from MSCI indices is because fund managers need to, or fund managers that track indices, basically they have to hold whatever is in the index. So if you are in the index, they have to buy those shares and

if they are not in the index, you do not buy those shares. That is basically how it works.

By excluding MicroStrategy effectively from the MSCI indices, it would mean that any index that tracks the MSCI index basically removes MicroStrategy and MicroStrategy does not make their criteria right now. So, it would be one of the ones that is definitely removed. That is what

happened on October 10th. That is what we think caused the October 10th collapse. It is happening again. It has reared its ugly head again. And Saylor is actually now responding to it.

Now, here is the response from Saylor. It says, "Digital assets are assets. Index providers should measure markets, not decide which asset companies are allowed to own. MSCI's proposal puts it out of step with the regulators, with markets, and with its own customers. Bitcoin does not need MSCI,

neither does MicroStrategy." I want to dig into that a little bit. So the first part of it, I think Saylor is right. Digital assets are assets. Index providers should measure markets, not decide which assets companies are allowed to own. 100% I agree. MSCI's proposal puts it

out of step with regulators, markets, and its own customers. I think I agree. Here is the part I do not agree with. Bitcoin does not need MSCI. Neither does MicroStrategy. That is the part that I am having a problem with. I would have rather that Saylor attacked in a more logical,

structured way than basically say, "We do not need MSCI." Because you actually kind of do need MSCI. And I will explain to you why you need MSCI. If you look at who MSCI is, MSCI, I ran this on ChatGPT, because that is what you do these days. So MSCI has $17

trillion of $41.5 trillion worth in equities. Okay, you understand like $17 trillion, 41%. So I would not say MSCI controls 41% of all global equity investment because the denominator excludes things like sovereign wealth funds, pensions which are separately managed. But it is big, at least

10 to 15% of assets are indexed to MSCI indices. And if you are, I mean, you cannot say that we do not need you when 10 to 15% of investable assets are in MSCI indices. Now unfortunately, I think

that this one might actually pass. That is the unfortunate part. The fortunate part is I do not think it actually really makes a difference. Why? Because I think, as I said before, I think Saylor was great for the last cycle. And I think what we actually want is we want him to become less

relevant in the next cycle. You do not want Saylor or any entity holding 5% of the Bitcoin supply or 6% of the Bitcoin supply operating or being in the market. I think when an entity owns 5 or 6%,

that is enough Bitcoin. You do not want them to keep increasing their Bitcoin until eventually they own 8, 9, 10%. That was great for what got us here, but now we need to look forward. Now we need to look at the next part of the crypto bull market. Now for me, the next part of the

crypto bull market looks something like this. I listened to this interview with Matt Hogan.

He was on our show recently, but I want you guys to hear this because this is the important part.

Some of the biggest catalysts are in places that crypto Twitter is not looking. If you talk about Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Merrill Lynch, the four sort of largest wealth management platforms, they control about $20 trillion in assets. The kind of catalyst that

I think will be a big part of the next cycle for the majors at least are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets being added to the model portfolios on those platforms. You have already seen it on a small scale at places like Wells. I think you are going to see it at many other of

those providers over the next 6 months. Again, $20 trillion of assets there. If you are starting to get model allocations of 1 or 2%, that is a huge amount of inflows. So, I think a lot of crypto thinks about the Fed, they think about the Clarity Act, they think about Red Crypto. All of those

are really important, but many of the biggest catalysts are actually internal to these wealth management platforms that are going to be the marginal buyer of the large cap assets, I think, over the next few years. And I would watch for those sort of small news stories that actually

trigger tens of billions of dollars of flows on a persistent basis for years in the future.

Okay. So let us talk about what he is actually saying there. He is saying, look, the big flow of money will actually come from Wall Street increasing their asset allocation to Bitcoin. Now they do this, or one big part of this is when they increase what they call model

portfolio allocation to an asset. So what do they mean by model portfolio allocation to an asset? If they say for example that a model portfolio should have 1 to 2% in Bitcoin and then they say, okay, well, look at the total investable assets. Let us say it is $50 trillion. You say 1 to 2% of

that must be invested in Bitcoin and then that gives you a, basically that basically gives you a multiplier. Right? Now you are already starting to see it happening. So if you look at the asset, the starting point is that right now individuals own about 57% of all the Bitcoin in circulation.

If you take the ones that are lost, there is 16.7% of Bitcoin that are lost. Then you take those that are held by miners, which is 1.9%. Then you have Satoshi's wallet, which we think is going to be frozen forever, 6%. 4% or 5% is still to be minted, has not been mined yet. Governments

seized and hold 2.6%. The ETFs hold 5.8% and the treasuries own 6%. So we can assume that the majority of the Bitcoin, 50 to 60% of the Bitcoin is still held by individual holders. And what we can also assume is that Wall Street will start increasing the allocation towards Bitcoin.

You are starting to see it in the headlines. So Paul Tudor Jones, who is one of the most prolific investors I think of all time, he increased his BlackRock ETF stake. He has increased it from 500 and something to 688,529 shares. That is an increase from 579,083. He is not the only one.

There is Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto bets. There is, if you look at the headlines, there are multiple headlines all the time of companies or allocators increasing their exposure to Bitcoin. And that is the writing, that is the writing on the wall. The minute we get the model

portfolio allocation increasing from say 1% to 2% and 2% to 3% and 4%, that is where the real money will come into crypto because that is not us chasing retail money. It is not us chasing an individual investor, etcetera, etcetera. It is us getting a share of the total investable asset. So

just have a look at this. This is BlackRock. BlackRock was saying, "We believe that a 1 to 2% allocation for Bitcoin is a reasonable range for multiple asset portfolio investors." If you look at it here, Morgan Stanley 0 to 4%. Schwab 0.5 to 5.6%. Fidelity 0 to 7.5%. Bank of

America 1 to 4% of assets. If you take those and you basically say, okay, let us average them. What is the number that we basically get? We get probably between 2.5 and 4% of all investable assets that should be in crypto. Now, let us look at what that actually means. The 15 largest asset

managers, BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, State Street, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, UBS, control $64 trillion of assets. If they go to 2% of those $64 trillion worth of assets, that is $1.28 trillion flowing into the asset class. The only thing is,

if you look at the market cap of the asset class, it is under $2 trillion. So that just, that would bring in 50% more money into crypto than the entire market cap. Now, if that happens, that would 5.6x to 11.1x the price of Bitcoin. And that is the math that you need to be looking at.

The math that says, the math that says if the big capital allocators, the real capital allocators start, they actually do not even need to increase. They just need to get to the number that they said that they were going to invest. They said they were going to invest between 1% and 4%

into these assets. If that happens, that is a $1.2 trillion inflow. If we get a $1.2 trillion inflow, the multiplier effect on that gives us between a 5.6 and 11.1 increase into Bitcoin. Then you may ask yourself, well, why has not this happened yet? And I will tell you, and when does it actually

happen? So, I will let you in on a little secret. We always look at these capital allocators as if they are the smart guys in the room. The truth is that they are not the smart guys in the room.

The truth is that they buy when the markets start going up. They do not buy the dip when the market is low. They buy when the market starts going up. The biggest advertisement for an asset class is the fact that the asset class is actually going up. So if you look now at stocks, everyone wants

in on stocks. Everyone wants in on internet stocks. Everyone, everyone wants in. Okay, I get it. But let us, we could just go to the S&P 500. What happened to you the last time you bought a market that looked like that? Like what happened to your portfolio the last time that you bought a

market there literally at all-time highs after a breakout of the channel? I am not saying you are not going to make money, but I am saying that that is what these guys are chasing at the moment instead of going to chase the bargains and the discounts. So when will they come? They will come

when the price starts moving. So, as soon as we get one or two green candles and we go from 65 and we go to 75 and we go from 75 to 85, then that is when they will start coming in. When that happens,

they will start saying, "Oh, you see, you are underallocated to Bitcoin. You should be more allocated to Bitcoin. You are underallocated to Bitcoin." And then they will all start going between 1 and 2 and 2 and 4%. And when that happens, the entire market will shift.

The first thing that will happen is a lot of money will go into Bitcoin and ETH and maybe a little bit into Solana because of the ETFs. Then another thing will happen. So the first thing that happens is Bitcoin goes up, Solana goes up, ETH goes up. But then another thing happens and the

other thing that happens actually relates back to the altcoins. What do I mean? I mean there will be a class of altcoins that will actually start running. What is the class of altcoins that will actually start running? I think it is a class of altcoins that actually have earnings or revenue

and have a buyback mechanism. Why? Because that is something that Wall Street can pretty easily understand. So, Wall Street can pretty easily say, "Look, you know, I understand Hyperliquid.

It makes X amount in fees. It uses those fees to go back and buy tokens on the open market, then it burns the tokens. That is something that I can understand." They may not really understand the layer ones because the layer ones are pretty complicated but they will understand

app revenue. They will understand usage revenue. They will understand all those metrics. So what do I think happens? How do I think this whole thing basically plays out? Let me explain it to you.

So the first, the first thing that happens is that the price of Bitcoin actually starts to move. We have got to break out of this sideways chop. When an asset is moving sideways like this, no one wants into the asset. Even like us crypto people, we do not want into asset

anymore. Why? Because it is boring. It is boring as hell. I would rather go and I do not know, play on-chain or play stocks than sit here and wait for this asset to basically chop sideways forever and a day. When it actually does start moving, and it will happen, I think

maybe there is one more leg down. If not, there is maybe a couple of months of sideways chop.

But I think soon we are going to get some kind of movement in Bitcoin. When we get that movement, you know what happens? When we get that movement, all the money starts to flow into Bitcoin. When the money starts to flow into Bitcoin, the genius capital allocators say, "Hold on a second. You

are underallocated. Everybody is underallocated. What happened to the 1, 2, 3, 4%?" People get, as the price runs, people get more and more and more and more aggressive. When that happens, Bitcoin goes up because of that momentum. But at the same time a new class of altcoin basically

starts to emerge and that is the altcoin that has clear revenue and on top of getting clear revenue they also have a clear way of dispersing that revenue with their token holders and those are the tokens that actually are going to win. So look at pump.fun at almost $0.033. You know what I mean.

And a whole lot of other ones. All the ones that actually end up with good tokenomics actually start ending up making money. So that is what I think is going to happen. And again, when does it happen? I cannot give you an actual date, but I can tell you exactly how it happens.

It happens when people start allocating. And there is always a lag. If you go back to gold, if you look at gold, portfolio managers actually put how much they actually put in in a portfolio.

BlackRock puts between 2 and 4% of portfolios into gold. JP Morgan 5%, Goldman Sachs 5% into gold. Now remember that is after a gold run. And what you can see is that when the gold ETF was launched, they also had a couple of years of like sideways, sideways, sideways chop and then

only gold actually started to catch a bid. And so it takes time for this model portfolio thing to actually catch on. But once the model portfolio thing actually catches on, then you get to these, you get to this all-time high thing. So it is just right now a patience game. I think I have

told you exactly how it is going to play out. It is going to play out exactly like I said it would. Mark my words here. That is exactly what is going to happen. I mean, here is a list of the revenue generating protocols. One of the layer ones is Canton. All fees collected

by Canton are buy and burn. I do not know if you guys know that, but all fees collected by Canton are buy and burn. Yeah. What else is there? Couple of things. Number one, who is coming to Token2049 in Singapore? Happening, happening. What else is there? Couple of things. Number one,

it is happening in October. Happening in October. If you want to come, there is a link for you over there. There is a link there. You see the link over there. Sign up on that link. We are going

to have a party there. If you buy your ticket using our link, we will also invite you to our party. I think that is fair, right? So, if you are thinking of going to Singapore, wow, you better hurry up because these things just keep going up. If you are going, buy it now. There is

a link below. Use that link. If you buy a link on our ticket, we will give you a free ticket to the Crypto Banter party which happens in Singapore. We have it every time. It is the biggest party ever.

What else is there? I think that is it for today. Yeah, that is it for today. All right, my friends.

I will see you guys again tomorrow. Hopefully when we wake up tomorrow, a $10,000 candle on Bitcoin.

But if not, then at least we are one day closer to the end of the bear market. Right, right, right. All right, let us go. See you guys again tomorrow. Until then, trade well, my friends.