This is the Most Powerful Swing Trading Setup - The Hight Tight Flag

Learn the powerful High Tight Flag swing trading setup with insights on pattern buying, market signals, and leader identification from TraderLion.

Ask about this video. Answers come from its transcript only — with the timestamp, so you can check them.

Generated from the transcript and can be wrong — check the timestamp.

Key Takeaways

High Tight Flag is a strong swing trading pattern when combined with other technical factors.
Always use risk management with hard stops and adjust based on market signals.
Identify and trade market leaders, especially in challenging market environments.
Think beyond just the pattern by layering indicators like ATR and RS line.
Studying bear market sequences helps prepare for future market downturns and opportunities.

What the video covers

The video explains the High Tight Flag pattern as a powerful swing trading setup.
Emphasizes thinking beyond just pattern buying to improve trading performance.
Discusses the importance of tight price action and rising relative strength (RS) line at buy points.
Highlights the use of average true range (ATR) to identify tightening and decline phases.
Stresses the significance of identifying market leaders and trading them even in difficult tape conditions.
Shares risk management techniques including hard stops and adjusting stops based on market signals.
Analyzes recent bear market lows and how to capitalize on leader setups during such times.
Mentions alternative entry methods and the importance of liquid stocks over small caps in current markets.
Includes case studies and examples from stocks like Olo, Tesla, and others to illustrate concepts.
Focuses on layering multiple technical factors for better trade entries and avoiding average performance.

Chapters

What is the High Tight Flag pattern?

The High Tight Flag is a swing trading setup characterized by a tight price consolidation with a rising relative strength line, often signaling a strong breakout opportunity.

How does TraderLion suggest managing risk when trading this pattern?

TraderLion recommends always using a hard stop loss immediately after buying and adjusting stops based on market signals to protect capital and manage risk effectively.

Why is it important to think beyond just the pattern in trading?

Relying solely on pattern buying can lead to average performance; layering additional factors like average true range, relative strength, and market context improves trade success.

Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

Speaker A

Things look good for a lot of leaders, and it's hard to buy. Then the next day, boom, everything's up and all those leaders are moving. If the leaders are setting up in a difficult tape, that's when I typically go in a little harder than most people.

Speaker A

than most people. So one of the things I always say is think beyond the pattern and really pattern buying alone. I mean I hate to say it but it's just kind of like can lead to average performance.

Speaker A

So one of the things I always say is think beyond the pattern and really pattern buying alone. I mean, I hate to say it, but it's just kind of like can lead to average performance.

Speaker A

average true range. We use that to see that decline. It's not always the case.

Speaker A

You just buy this pattern or that pattern, and you know it's a tight area, and you're not putting a lot of thought into it. So when to buy a high tight flag, obviously you want tight action.

Speaker A

And you want to see that rising RS line right into the buy point and layer all these things on. Uh the fun thing we had a low and this is uh I think it popped a little bit the next bar here, but just

Speaker A

Average true range. We use that to see that decline. It's not always the case.

Speaker A

down to 20 they're completely out of the trade or they're going to hold forever.

Speaker A

The look is probably most important, but you know, if you're scanning, you want to see some kind of tightening. And you can do that with regular bases, too. You want to see the average true range tighten on the right side of every base.

Speaker A

So in a tough environment you've got a you know the Middle East conflict and then we're buying Alo in a high tight flag and that's really the key skill that I think everyone needs to identify is finding the leader is is really the

Speaker A

And you want to see that rising RS line right into the buy point and layer all these things on. The fun thing, we had a low, and this is, I think it popped a little bit the next bar here, but just sold most of it into strength there.

Speaker A

hard stop as soon as I buy something. Of course, you can move your stop depending on your signal. Always work on your market signal. I just think studying this bare market sequence is really the key takeaway. There'll be a bare market

Speaker A

And the fun thing about this was we sort of discounted the previous overhead supply, just very deep based here. But we just looked at this as everybody that bought at 70 and held down to 20, they're completely out of the trade or they're going to hold forever.

Speaker A

All right, welcome back everyone for the next presentation of the Trailine Conference. It's my honor to introduce Leif Sera. Uh he is the USMsing champion of 2019, the founder of champion team trading and the uh host of the high

Speaker A

So the theme got so hot, you know, we found an inside day and just played it.

Speaker A

love learning price and volume action from you. I think you're you have a great way of explaining things. So, looking forward to to diving into today.

Speaker A

So in a tough environment, you've got the Middle East conflict, and then we're buying Olo in a high tight flag, and that's really the key skill that I think everyone needs to identify is finding the leader is really the most important thing.

Speaker A

beyond the pattern is is sort of what we try to do. Uh, you know, pattern buying alone. Sometimes the patterns want the ones that work are they they change and you have to adjust a little bit. Uh I

Speaker A

This slide just shows that I always use a stop. So anything I say, if I'm interested in the stock and I bought it and it's down 10%, you could assume I'm already out for 5% higher. That's, I always have a hard stop as soon as I buy something.

Speaker A

where you can make just, you know, huge amounts of money getting very loaded off near the lows. You're not going to exactly buy the low, of course. Uh but that's really what I think is key. We're going to talk about alternative entry

Speaker A

Of course, you can move your stop depending on your signal. Always work on your market signal. I just think studying this bear market sequence is really the key takeaway. There'll be a bear market again. I mean, there's always one around the corner.

Speaker A

They're not buying the the thing stuff and small caps aren't haven't been performing very well anyway. So the more liquid leaders are more obvious and that's where the the money likes to run.

Speaker A

Then you got to be ready to capitalize off that low, and people wait for too much confirmation.

Speaker A

Something a little update to your master class there. Uh I think something for from Olo specifically which I think is interesting and and basic basic stock placement techniques and such. So of course I have to you know a little bit

Speaker A

All right, welcome back everyone for the next presentation of the Trailine Conference. It's my honor to introduce Leif Sera. He is the USMSing champion of 2019, the founder of Champion Team Trading, and the host of the High Tight Flag Masterclass, his specialty.

Speaker A

1996. I finally maybe 2008 I was trading seven figure account. We've made many millions since I'm an entrepreneur MBA in finance.

Speaker A

And today he's going to be discussing some excellent key concepts on thinking beyond the pattern and presenting some excellent case studies off the recent bear market low. Leif, thanks as always for being a part of this.

Speaker A

But my favorite favorite pattern is a hight tight flag obviously. uh your trading influences. Obviously, William O'Neal, it's all sort of based around that and everybody below there sort of uh you know puts the fine points on that. Mike Webster, David Ryan, uh you

Speaker A

I love learning price and volume action from you. I think you have a great way of explaining things. So, looking forward to diving into today.

Speaker A

have a service also. So it's kind of inspiring to see these people actually kind of showcase it and compete in that way anyway, which is a lot of fun. So we do that, too. So So we want to define our stock universe.

Speaker A

Thanks for your time. Yeah, thanks for having me. You know, I'm more than just a one-trick pony on the high tight flags, but we prefer those, right? That's the thing. But this is things that move, right?

Speaker A

themsel even if it's out of trend. I don't know if you know what that is, Richard. I take a Yeah, I do. Yeah. Right. So that's that's Tesla. Everybody's always breaking the rules for Tesla, but I'd rather not break the rules. There there

Speaker A

So, this kind of has a think beyond the pattern is sort of what we try to do. You know, pattern buying alone, sometimes the patterns want the ones that work are they change and you have to adjust a little bit.

Speaker A

number and the count actually matter. You know, with the the moving averages actually over each other, the 50 over the 150 or starting with the 200 and then the 150 over the 200, then the 50 over the 150. That sort of sets your

Speaker A

I think the real great thing about this presentation is we're going to talk about what was leading off the bear market lows, what that looked like so you can spot it next time, right?

Speaker A

overhead supply. Uh and and Tesla did sort of bounce from this uh slide here.

Speaker A

Next time there's a bear market, and that's where you can make just huge amounts of money getting very loaded off near the lows. You're not going to exactly buy the low, of course.

Speaker A

It's really only when you break your rules or do something foolish like you only this time or whatever. I'm just going I'm just going to trade Tesla right here. Uh, I mean, I get why people do it, but I'm just very very specific

Speaker A

But that's really what I think is key. We're going to talk about alternative entry methods. So little tease of some high tight flags, maybe one just bought another one today actually.

Speaker A

stocks are entering or leaving our universe is kind of the key indicator that we came up with a couple years back and we sort of plot that on a histogram against uh, you know, different indices, especially small caps. Uh, they they

Speaker A

You know, focusing on liquid stocks, you know, that's something we've sort of moved more to that over the years. They're not buying the thin stuff, and small caps haven't been performing very well anyway.

Speaker A

trend for me. Uh just this slide just shows that I always use a stop. So anything I say if it's if I'm interested in the stock and and I bought it and it's down 10%, you could assume I'm

Speaker A

So the more liquid leaders are more obvious, and that's where the money likes to run. We're going to look at that. We're talking about the quality of overhead supply and the high tight flag.

Speaker A

round tripped I got out got back in and then once that breakout candle is there you know you're adjusting to even just sort of like I did before for the most part if you're pressing more risk and and pushing your luck and sometimes

Speaker A

Something a little update to your master class there. I think something from Olo specifically, which I think is interesting, and basic stock placement techniques and such.

Speaker A

something we're going to talk about post earnings pullbacks and something we did with Rocket Lab recently. I don't have it on the slide deck, but that's that's a good one. Um, got to find what entry works best for

Speaker A

So of course I have to, you know, say a little bit about me if you don't know who I am. I won the US Investment Championship as it came out of retirement after so many years in 2019.

Speaker A

ahead of that because when once you get the highs you can bounce around your 5% stop. It could kind of easily lift it especially in a choppy environment. So you got to have that situational awareness. Uh and breakouts are sort of

Speaker A

I won that contest, and I've been training since 1996. I finally, maybe 2008, I was trading a seven-figure account. We've made many millions since. I'm an entrepreneur, MBA in finance.

Speaker A

handle. Uh, one of the things I like to do is sort of fish a low in a handle.

Speaker A

This is like a dating profile. It's my except I've got the kids already. So sorry everybody.

Speaker A

Uh, imagining this this cup and this one here, Cory went to about 19 from there, but we're already even in way earlier.

Speaker A

But my favorite pattern is a high tight flag, obviously. Your trading influences, obviously William O'Neal, it's all sort of based around that, and everybody below there sort of puts the fine points on that.

Speaker A

in a turn from there using the daily highs is what we do. So uh high tight flag definition. This is in the master class. I recommend that. It's a pretty fair price. I don't know what it is.

Speaker A

Mike Webster, David Ryan, you can watch them on IBD Live a lot. That's a lot of fun. Stan Weinstein stage analysis and mining is the early entries, and VCP, you know, tightening up patterns and such is, and actually having a service, and I have a service also.

Speaker A

times. So it's you know it's kind of interesting and hey if if that's what it takes you got to burn it in the brain uh you know get all the examples. So when you do see it an environment has to be

Speaker A

So it's kind of inspiring to see these people actually kind of showcase it and compete in that way anyway, which is a lot of fun. So we do that, too.

Speaker A

So um once again it's they're all in the can it's the cans slim background is key but for high tight flags the N and can slim and I think the N really in growth stocks is kind of key uh it just in general so

Speaker A

So we want to define our stock universe. This is something I do very seriously. We keep the count. We're going to show that on a histogram. How many stocks are in trend?

Speaker A

probably a lot easier actually uh but your your stats are probably going to about the same and I think the high tight flags uh go farther. So, and that's the class is here. This is just a screenshot of your website, I guess. So,

Speaker A

There's a chart on the left that everybody always has to trade, right? That everybody can't help themselves even if it's out of trend. I don't know if you know what that is, Richard. I take a—Yeah, I do. Yeah.

Speaker A

You don't want it back to to recent highs necessarily, but sometimes on these ones that that are just uh small small nukes and stuff. They the power comes and goes, everybody's eliminated. So, you can kind of discount some of that overhead supply there. Uh

Speaker A

Right. So that's Tesla. Everybody's always breaking the rules for Tesla, but I'd rather not break the rules. There are stocks that were trending from this bear market low. You see the S&P 500 above that on the chart.

Speaker A

easier just to hold and you had to decide what type of trader you are there. So, you want to trade around that 100% rise. So, uh we also have we call rocket bases, right? So it's did it pull

Speaker A

So I wouldn't trade that. I stick to what I stick to my universe, and the number and the count actually matter. You know, with the moving averages actually over each other, the 50 over the 150 or starting with the 200 and then the 150 over the 200, then the 50 over the 150.

Speaker A

six to 10 weeks instead of three to five. Uh then we have something called low tight flag for the special situations that are not quite the high tight flag but look like it but they're even tighter. Hopefully like 15% or less

Speaker A

That sort of sets your bases correctly, right? So you have to right sides and develop bases and right sides. It could be tightening up there without so much overhead supply.

Speaker A

do. And here's a scan. This is from deep view. And you can use this for uh stockcharts.com and get that syntax. And we're going to get through this because the fun thing I'm going to do is show a bunch of

Speaker A

That kind of solves a lot of that problem like this chart has a lot of heavy overhead supply. And Tesla did sort of bounce from this slide here.

Speaker A

You see, you see see how far these hight tight flags can go and uh this one was rare situation a long time ago where there's three in a row and uh it's actually a pretty great stock recently too. Axon taser. So, uh this had the N

Speaker A

This is from the past here, but it kind of chopped around the 200 while other stuff performed a lot better. So, and the reason, one thing I say is never be mad at yourself when you're trading when you get something wrong.

Speaker A

to be. You want you want it to look good. You want inside days and such. You know, quality. You want to move up the quality. You want probably want $10 plus. I start at five five and up. But

Speaker A

It's really only when you break your rules or do something foolish like you only this time or whatever. I'm just going, I'm just going to trade Tesla right here.

Speaker A

you can see if you can get get a look at it and take a manageable stop if you're wrong. So uh of course the group is important sometimes. Uh biotech can you know they can have news that cause these

Speaker A

I mean, I get why people do it, but I'm just very, very specific about it's got to be in our wheelhouse. And we do have some different rules for IPO bases, liquidity requirements, and such.

Speaker A

one but we we came close once or twice. something something last year was down like 30% in the pre-market and just snapped back to even uh just some just some crazy stuff. So, we sort of moved on from a lot of those for the most part

Speaker A

I try to trade 90 plus RS ratings for market surge. That's what I prefer. So, in the count of how many stocks are entering or leaving our universe is kind of the key indicator that we came up with a couple years back, and we sort of plot that on a histogram against different indices, especially small caps.

Speaker A

probably most important but you know if you're scanning you want to see some kind of tightening and you can do that with regular basis too. You want to see the average true range titan on the right side of every base. Um, and you

Speaker A

They tend to kind of mimic, you know, what kind of performance you can... you c

Speaker A

indicators that that are going to improve your odds. Uh that's that's something to uh uh you know then you want to target that stock basically, right? So, hey everyone. Just want to jump in here real quick and let you know

Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

or visit dv.com/mpodcast. That's dv.com/mpodcast. And with that, let's get back to the interview. Uh the fun thing we had a low and this is uh I think it popped a little bit uh the next bar here but uh just sold this most of it into

Speaker A

strength there and the fun thing about this was we sort of discounted the previous overhead supply just very deep based here but we just looked at this is everybody that bought at 70 and held down to 20 is uh

Speaker A

wasted right they're uh they're completely out of the trade or they're going to hold forever so I think that you know we didn't we tend to look back a year or two, but this one this special case where the theme got so hot, you

Speaker A

know, we found an inside day and just played it. So, uh, in a tough environment, you've got, you know, the Middle East conflict and then we're buying Alo in a high tight flag. So, uh, there's definitely a lot of power in the

Speaker A

group there. So, we're playing with that one. And, uh, you know, shakeouts, you can do a lot of re-entries up to three.

Speaker A

You know, if you don't get it right the first time or second time, I I tend to back off. off and this is what I've been doing with MSTR actually in this the recent handle um the recent handle in June just was

Speaker A

not really working out here so we switched to IBIT and that's just a little bit better. So uh if it's not working out for you there's you know you won't be surprised when it tanks later.

Speaker A

So uh and then you pause these slides and take a look at you know when to sell uh you know first targets depending on the signal. If you're on a great signal where everything's working for you, you maybe want to take more than two risk

Speaker A

multiples before you take anything. Um, if if you're a total chopfest, you're probably taking something very quickly like we did with Aqua. We took like a like a 20% scale and then moved the stop to even. It never hit it and then we're

Speaker A

we're selling when we get that 30% rip for the most part and keeping a trailer.

Speaker A

So, uh, like I said, Celsius did about 900% from that that example there. And um we're not really looking so much at at China names anymore, but uh the lower quality names tend to move in those interesting environments and they sort

Speaker A

of all around trip. So you you really need to sell those to the strength and uh kind of be smart about your risk management. So all right. So earnings pivots here. This is something you want me to go over. It's a really interesting

Speaker A

thing to dis I think we not really discovered it but it's you get a moment where you you discover that earnings are creating the pattern. A lot of the times it's a drifting into earnings and it's waiting for that confirmation and then

Speaker A

you get this tight area or pivot that people tend to try a day or two before and I I tend not to do that because you're sort of just gambling. Maybe you get up 3%. Maybe you just go take a stop

Speaker A

right ahead of it. So I tend to wait for earnings and then trade it after that.

Speaker A

In fact, I'm in. So this went into earnings here and and shook down and then and then went through the buy point and we're a little more aggressive with the IPO bases. We have some different rules for that. So uh that was an ad

Speaker A

point and it's very on theme and you know this IPO looks like it's a successful IPO. So you want you want to try that and we don't chase gaps on these more than 1 to 2%. Some people do

Speaker A

those earnings gaps. I don't do that unless it's at the the correct buy point. So we can get out 1% maybe I'll try that. So you know especially if it's a larger base this IPO base is interesting because it's a little

Speaker A

shorter. Um so great earnings at an ideal buy point or at a great buy point is ideal. So um you know standard buy points are really best when it when the price drags into that. So that's what we've been working on there. And another

Speaker A

example here we'll take a look at carame. We have uh CPNG. This is one that I took here and just sold that into strength because this larger base I've been playing with. I I tried it back in here and had a I think it was

Speaker A

profitable. I had to get out. Uh got back in, sold it into strength and and retry the uh sort of the the high handle turn there. Uh but you get these larger bases. You want to get the earnings

Speaker A

pivots on the right side of the base. And the price, I think, sort of is waiting for confirmation that you're getting that beat and raise. That's what I typically want to hear.

Speaker A

uh a great environment. It's just kind of more of a binary move. Um you're sort of right right away if it if it's pushing through the buy point or not, right? It's a a lot can happen. It can

Speaker A

fly all over the place, but for the most part, uh it's sort of binary. It's kind of one or zero, just straight out or straight down. So, uh this one was interesting because it had this bigger weekly base and you want to see that.

Speaker A

So, I'll try to target those earnings pivots with a larger basis on the right side. And that one worked. And here we're re-entered on this little mini handle turn there and just kind of floating around for now. But it's a DR

Speaker A

and Miller name. And we, you know, online retail is something we're interested in here. So, and just just to clarify for folks, the the the buy point for the earnings pivots is through a recent short-term resistance level, either through the

Speaker A

prior day high or here in this case, there's a little range that forms there.

Speaker A

Yeah. Anything you want to add on that? Yeah. Well, yeah, it's just a a little pivot.

Speaker A

I mean, going back to this, even 20 247, you draw a line across. So, you know, it's it's a little bit low in the base there over the 200s. Maybe not trending, but uh I think this thing was ready to

Speaker A

to jump out of the base finally. You know, that's that that's what I was I was betting on. So, a little different rules if you find any tight area. Uh it's definitely over the 200 day moving average. So some of these moving this

Speaker A

moving average down there was it has to catch up with it now. But uh so we sold that and and rebought it as just a regular swing trade after that. So all right so one of the things I always

Speaker A

say is think beyond the pattern and really pattern buying alone I mean I hate to say it but it's just kind of like can lead to average performance.

Speaker A

You just buy this pattern or that pattern. Uh you know it's a tight area and you're not putting a lot of thought into it, right? to you really can't kiss all the babies. I mean, today was a pretty good day overall and there's

Speaker A

there's too many stocks to trade. So, we sort of had to focus on what we thought was uh you know, the best themes and groups of where the money was going and uh just random random pattern buying.

Speaker A

Sometimes it can help diversify your different groups as such, but you sort of want to be concentrated in the stuff that's working. You got to know what's working, bigger liquid leaders, uh, you know, is growth versus value working.

Speaker A

Um, you know, sometimes you got to get back into your leaders. I mean, I've been doing a lot more of that recently, sort of selling the strength and adding back, uh, keeping the same stocks. Uh, and there's a lot of traders that that I

Speaker A

trade with that are going to be more long-term, and that's maybe more what they're looking for. They just want good entries or something like that, and they're going to hold for the long term using, you know, moving averages. uh

Speaker A

we're we're always checking for upgrades like upgrade at a buy point and it's something you've been looking at. Uh and one of the things too is just if you if if you haven't been looking at this stock that you're just about to buy and

Speaker A

you just look at it on the day and you want to buy it. Uh where was it 3 days ago, right? It's like this is something you you're not ready. Um you got to be doing your homework. Lone wolf trades

Speaker A

are kind of lower odds typically. You got to match it to the group or the theme. Um typically, right? anything could happen. You know, that Tesla could go to the moon like I I showed in the first the first chart, but I won't be

Speaker A

mad at myself for missing it because I don't trade that. Uh that's what I was saying about, you know, don't have a lot of anger at yourself ever. Always talk positive about yourself, but stay in your stay in your lane, do what you do,

Speaker A

and and uh you know, this is not a casino, right? So, got to run it like a business.

Speaker A

Uh so this is the fund histogram off to the bare market lows and we we we track the IWM uh pretty close. IWO is IWN plus IWM is IWO plus IWN is a Nancy. So the value and the growth component are both

Speaker A

in this. IWM is the more liquid one. So we're sort of focused on that. And this had this perfect I wouldn't say perfect but pretty close to sort of like ABC move. Uh, and we thought really everyone was overreacting to the the Trump trade

Speaker A

deals. If you look up what he did last time is kind of very minimal overall tariffs and such. Um, versus this time he put some very big numbers to to it.

Speaker A

You know, 100% tariff on China and then took it off and we figured he would do it. So, this didn't have much more legs to the downside we thought. But you look down here, there's nothing to trade. So,

Speaker A

you don't have to do anything. That's there's there's no pressure when the stocks in trend and it kind of fakes you out. You sort of take a signal change and roll back down. So you your signal can be false too, right? When you start

Speaker A

to get some stuff working and sell out again and start uh you know you realize there's nothing to trade and then that starts picking up and that couch starts picking up and then you're buying a leaders as as the signal changes and

Speaker A

getting that right and then going to green signal as quickly as you can once you realize that that's the bare market low and I think the April 7th was. So yeah, and for everybody the the histogram on the bottom is mapping the

Speaker A

number of stocks that meet your particular trend filters. So we're we're seeing basically breath expand and confirm off the bottom low.

Speaker A

Yeah, this is TC2000 with special data package that uh you have your daily count of everything that meets, you know, all the stocks that are in trend and the liquidity requirements.

Speaker A

uh the $5 plus and all that stuff. You can you you can change it to match what what you're looking for. Maybe you want $10 plus. That's probably where it should be, but we just we've been consistent that it's $5 minimum cuz

Speaker A

maybe we'll try a $9 one that sets up absolutely perfect, right? So, want to have a little bit wider net, but that's what happened at the lows. There's nothing to trade. So, once that starts building again and and shorts aren't

Speaker A

working. I mean, I'm in here poking at some shorts. Uh we're we're trying to get a feel for what's going on and that's the way I do it. I'm a little more active. Uh but the sizing when things aren't working great, you're

Speaker A

you're small. You're on red signal. There's not going to be a lot of damage.

Speaker A

Okay. You're you're 25% or less invested uh for the most part or maybe just catch. I mean, you you realize we're sort of in a downtrend going into a bear here. So uh and and there's a lot of

Speaker A

lessons to learn from the recent bear. see uh the the the chart there what it looked like kind of undercut all the way back to to to a year prior there. Uh but there was several leaders that really

Speaker A

never touched the 200 day moving average. Uh and so there was really no need to catch that April 7th low and just index by. I think we did better buying the leaders coming out of there.

Speaker A

Uh because leaders are going to lead, right? They're going to kind of outperform it. We want that outperformance.

Speaker A

uh you know one of the things I would do maybe I have some different rules and one of them is in com combination with other things is the VIX hits 80 I I'll mark it by uh the index basically so but

Speaker A

we didn't get there and there's no need to do that anyway you you'd probably rather have the stronger stocks coming out of it but um you you got this great undercut and what I think the best way to do is to to learn how to trade from

Speaker A

this is I'll walk through the trades we did in order off the lows and it started with spot Spotify and uh we we were pretty accurate with what leaders were we were buying and you'll see the reasons yourself and understand how we

Speaker A

came about these. It's not like we're reading uh you know Baronss or watching CNBC trying to figure out what leaders are. It's just how they were acting and you know some of them ended up being more sluggish than others. And that's

Speaker A

going to be the difference in a contest winner versus a contest like decent place or just you know beating the market. um managing these properly, you'll probably beat the market, but if you want to win a contest, you sort of

Speaker A

need to be concentrated in in just a handful, you know, three to four stocks or something like that. Uh but but you know, I I tend to you only have to get rich once. So, you you know, it's better

Speaker A

for me to spread it out a little bit and kind of get that same performance off the lows when you're when you're getting, you know, three stocks very quickly that go up 30%.

Speaker A

uh one that maybe you take a stop on, right? You take your whole account in that. So, I'm just I'd rather spread out a little bit myself. Uh obviously not in the contest and we have a lot of contest

Speaker A

players, you know, on champion team and uh somebody was up 100% the other month and uh you know, we had Leo almost had the the record last year. So, it's fun to see what they're looking at and and

Speaker A

how far the leaders go and how how how good they you know are at finding the leader. So, and that's really the key skill that I think everyone needs to uh identify is finding the leader is is really the most important thing. And

Speaker A

we're going to go over that right here. We're going to talk about I sort of did a talk with Arouchia once. It was sort of came up with it on the fly. It's called it careful concentration. And it

Speaker A

was like, you know, how do you get 40% invested very quickly in something, right, with without just buying one stock and and putting a 40% size on it?

Speaker A

and you sort of identify a group, maybe it's semis and they're all looking good, breaking out one after the other and you go 10% four times, I got 40%. as you're moving up stops and taking profits or something like that. Uh so that's sort

Speaker A

of the way I run the service is sort of the champion team trading a little more active but uh very quickly kind of getting into a few and obviously you got to do your own trading and the the

Speaker A

contest traders are going to pick what they think are the leaders and and stick with those with size. Obviously you got to use margin if you want real outperformance. You have to get comfortable with that. But that's not

Speaker A

for new traders. I'd say give it a couple years before you start messing with that. Um, and like I said, I've been doing it since 96. I was very bad when I started 1996. I was 16 and uh,

Speaker A

you know, blew out almost uh, within a few weeks and haven't blown out since.

Speaker A

So, that's good. Uh, you got to be careful with with contest trading and margin. But, you know, I we tend to showcase those ideas. So, um, so yeah, one stock up 30% or a few up 30, it's a little bit more riskaverse to go

Speaker A

one after the other, maybe one or two in a day every, you know, and continuing up as you can see the market's holding, too. You don't know the market's really going to hold either. So, you want that confirmation as as you're you're adding

Speaker A

your risk and moving up the stop kind of derisks a lot of it. you know, obviously pending gap risk, anything can happen, of course, but uh just some thoughts there. So, something interesting to think about for so the technicals really

Speaker A

gave the clues that, you know, which stocks were leaders off the low. So, if the bear is quick, you sort of looked to the same leaders really very little change, you know, some tariff news, some inflation, kind of all the same story.

Speaker A

So, whatever stayed in trend, that's your leader and they're probably going to snap back. So, uh, we looked at something like SE. So, I traded that back in September for pretty good money, uh, as it as it sort of touched the 200

Speaker A

and tightened up against the higher low in the market. You see the S&P 500, this market sur chart behind it. Uh, we're we're trying to use that as a like a little cheat there. And the patterns weren't exactly perfect, but off a bare

Speaker A

market low, I just think that getting into the leaders is more important than patterns. So, you want to use the uh sort of the spirit of a pivot or something. And I borrow that from Mike Webster. He always says spirit of

Speaker A

something. And that sort of uh sticks with me because we're we're we're getting a horizontal pivot that you know you're you're coming off a bare market low. Things are going to be volatile.

Speaker A

So, you're just you're just trying to get exposure as things are turning up and the market if that snaps back and it did as it got that higher low, we're starting to uh you know hit some of these stocks. there was a lot of runway

Speaker A

in the market to push these up. Um, so besides looking at the same leaders, um, you want to look for sort of like a lot of double bottom patterns we're going to show. Uh, like I said, you're not going to get

Speaker A

perfect pivots necessarily. If you're waiting for the perfect textbook thing off the bare low, you're you're going to be waiting till there's the next bare market probably. So that's uh not the way to do it in in my view. If you think

Speaker A

you've identified it and we're testing a few, we're not going all in. you get one right, then you try another one and say, "Okay, is this aggression worth it? Is it working?" Otherwise, we're we're dialing it back. So, it's not like we're

Speaker A

we got some crystal ball. It's a call. We start buying and then we get a confirmation and that's telling us we're right. We don't know we're right until the stocks start going up.

Speaker A

So, that's a little look at SE there. So, this is at the exact bare market low of April 7th. all these charts. Uh you have Spotify in the top right, Netflix, uh Take Two, and Palanteer. And I remember reviewing these constantly and

Speaker A

just thinking, I don't think we have too much more downside. It's just getting these kind of undercuts on that low day.

Speaker A

And these didn't even touch the 200 day moving average. So, I wasn't I mean, it doesn't mean they they was going to balance them for sure going to go up.

Speaker A

But I'm thinking I don't think we're going to depression. They didn't whack these. you you're in your bare market measurements 20% plus off the highs in the indices and uh these they really couldn't take these down. So somebody

Speaker A

was supporting them and was telling me that the power is probably going to come back at some point and you want to target these. So this is just a little review of that's what it looked like at the barrel low with these were my key

Speaker A

stocks that I was looking at and I was also messing with some shorts in there and I wasn't getting any results like I said. So it's like we're we're playing around with a we're testing some long and short but really the stocks and

Speaker A

trend were disappearing. So the short side was the only side that really made sense. You look at Palunteer sort of a key leader almost looks like a big head and shoulders but then undercut and then it tightened up from there. We'll we'll

Speaker A

we'll show the buy we did there later. All right. So the first buy we did was was Spotify and I've traded this in the past. um you know till actually the start of the year you know we're trying to get this kind

Speaker A

of early entry the spirit of achieve things coming off the low sold some of the strength and stopped even so we're not getting great feedback but then we see that okay it it it bounced back up and we we targeted it later. Uh so

Speaker A

making any kind of profit on it was kind of a clue that okay we're we're able to you know sort of get some stocks moving here and uh it's an early clue that okay we're going to start looking more long.

Speaker A

Uh and you can see the market what it looked like here. You get this higher low and then it shook out and we had MSTR on the left side the double bottom base right on the 200 day moving

Speaker A

average. So you go into a bare market and all it could do is tap the 200.

Speaker A

It'll stay in trend and on the entire chart you you really can't even find a tight area except where where we bought it there. Uh, so we're selling some into strength and getting out there. And I did try to re-engage it in this handle

Speaker A

uh for an even stop and a 1% stop and just kind of getting messed up in this like and switching to IBIT today, which is uh actually nicely on the on the moves and uh I I think was trading a

Speaker A

little bit better than MSTR. So, Ebony, uh, so yeah, take two was another double bottom base where the the the second bottom sort of undercut the first and that was right at the bare market low.

Speaker A

It snapped right back. So, we're looking for some kind of a turn off the 50 and we got it and started getting up double digits. Sold a little bit into strike and we thought we had it. So, things are

Speaker A

looking pretty good, but then they kind of move the game back. the uh Grand Theft Auto 6, they delayed that. So, I caught a bounce off the open and sold into that. So, didn't make a lot on that

Speaker A

one on on the last sale there, but it's a sign that things are firming up and then from here it improved a little bit more. So, you know, one thing about a game delay, somebody else has the opportunity to come in and put out maybe

Speaker A

the the free version without some much of a story or something and uh kind of uh compete with you there. So, it kind of got a little riskier in my view. So, we just said goodbye to it, but uh you

Speaker A

know, sort of had the the spirit of a tight area like like I said, like Mike Webster would say as we sort of tightening up and very little was tight, but some stuff started to move. So, we just going to we're going to test our

Speaker A

luck there basically. So, uh there's some re-entry opportunities, but we we got other stocks here. So, Uber once again, we're just trying to buy this breaking out here. So, we looked for a a spot. We sold into strength there. Uh

Speaker A

tried it again and stopped out. So, um, you know, once again, just a big base and the whole bare market just kept it within its base. So, there was something there that I'm I'm thinking, okay, they couldn't knock this one out of this base

Speaker A

finally. So, I think it's maybe ready to go to the next one. Uh, but we, you know, this one was um is well managed, I suppose, but maybe a little sluggish, you know, after the fact. So, take a look at that. Just sort of buying

Speaker A

that coming out of there. and what the what the palanteer looked like which is our our key stock the key market leader uh you had that double bottom base and that shake out at the bare market low and then tightened up and I I tend to

Speaker A

use the the horizontal the spirit of one right so you have that horizontal pivot and it kind of broke the 100 level so we're using this uh buy there and selling and adding so we're still in this trade even even adding up here uh

Speaker A

taking some taking it off though on this this liquidation bar here I think it had something to do with the Musk feud. So, couldn't get a real read on that. It's a little bit of a violation. Uh but, you

Speaker A

know, turning back up, you could could reattack it. So, uh the other ones are was Carvana and Carvana once again, you just draw that the horizontal pivot had the spirit of one. Uh it it just barely shook out. It

Speaker A

didn't really live below the 200. That's that's what I don't like. Uh we're we're just talking about stocks like NOW and other ones, you know, the ones that were below the the 200 day moving average at the bare market low. I don't think are

Speaker A

the stronger stocks, but of course anything they can change and they can they can really rip, but we're trying to stick with the ones that are in trend, the trend of the best that are going to continue to trend. Uh so we're we're

Speaker A

adding we're adding this long here uh you know, April 23rd. So we're sort of buying a few on that day as things really start taking off and just kind of this Livermore idea where I think it's in that in his book there. We figured

Speaker A

when it crossed 300 ought ought to keep going and probably touch 340 in a jiffy.

Speaker A

That that's exactly where we sold out and then uh I think it got worse from here and just kind of tanked. So, uh but once once you do the the reby on the handle, I'm expecting less on the next

Speaker A

one. So, you're getting maybe 30% from here to there, a little bit more up there. So, um it's about 50% gains from the from the buy point, the original one. And that's good. And something with Rocket Lab. I I had Rocket Lab and I you

Speaker A

don't want to let perfect be the enemy of good. I I was trying to sell Rocket Lab up 50% and I got like within 3% of that and then it just uh kind of tanked like you know 30% back down. So uh that

Speaker A

that was uh you want to be selling it as strength and choppy environment. So uh but this this one was acting like a leader all the way and I I think we were right to say okay that's going to lead

Speaker A

off the lows. So we picked that one off too. Um, and these are all in a row on champion team trading. These are all the buys here actually. So, and we did we did hit 340 there and got

Speaker A

out. So, you take a look at that and very much the spirit of like a high handle pullback on top of this little base here and aggressive off the lows and you know, not a perfect pivot, right? You'd say that's not a textbook

Speaker A

thing. Same with Crowd Strike. Draw the line across it. Uh, just we're trying to grab these leaders. We think this is the cyber security leader. Uh so we're adding as we go and uh we're trying to ride these. This is just just the next

Speaker A

day as stocks are confirming and they're all breaking out. Uh you know the leadership I think is more important than the perfect pivot off the bare low.

Speaker A

But once again we're using the spirit of a pivot there something that makes sense that's horizontal. Uh so that's that's what we're looking at in the uh we we're sort of using this 400 level break. I say it's the four liver more. It's the

Speaker A

four $400. Round numbers are key. You want to see stocks moving through those round numbers and sometimes they can be resistance if you're extended into them.

Speaker A

Uh so that's that's something that I put more emphasis on over the years. It's this kind of obvious round numbers and the psychology behind that.

Speaker A

We can see that 400 break up there and then little mini handle. So there's almost a shake out in this handle.

Speaker A

That's why we're adding to it. Then we're adding up here. So we're trying to keep size and what we what we think is a cyber security leader and a lot of these had this kind of earnings amnesia. This

Speaker A

this had earnings that kind of dropped out but they snapped back. So that's an interesting thing about the group during this time P&W uh FT&T and others uh Cyber CBR they they kind of sold off on her and just

Speaker A

snapped back because I think in the future you know they're look the market's looking forward to that group as leadership. uh SE we went over this one before uh as the example where they looked like this just barely touched the

Speaker A

200. So we had this great run before. You t I tend to want to go back to stocks that I've traded well. Right. So I got SE right uh back in maybe September. Uh so I think it's a leader.

Speaker A

It's it's it's performed well. It was trending well. Uh just barely touched the 200 and tightening up off the bare market low. So uh yeah we what did I say here? Adding hold on a second. But we got to fix this.

Speaker A

Adding back can be wrong. What? Okay. So, what I'm saying here is adding back can be wrong when you're you're adding back at the at the highs here.

Speaker A

And this this broke out and failed, but this might this will probably still turn up is my guess and that's what we're betting on down there. Uh but you know, sometimes your your adbacks can raise your cost basis and start messing things

Speaker A

up unless you have sold it and you rebought almost at the same place. So, you don't want to mess up your cost basis too much when you're adding on and trying to keep size. Um, if you've taken scales, you know, if you add extended,

Speaker A

you're you're putting yourself in more difficult position to hold. So, that's what we're looking at there. That's the ad spot. Just add Yeah. through that high.

Speaker A

Yeah. Through that that little turn and then it it really didn't hold there. It kind of just threw back. uh you have the chance to take it off I suppose but you know starting down here with size uh

Speaker A

helps the situation and uh it's always good to sort of you don't really want to lose your position in a leader it's uh I think David Ryan says that a lot and yeah anyway so this the pattern buying

Speaker A

right so it's like eBay I think eBay is like a pattern buy to me but you know you got some stuff working lately like Cisco and eBay and I I don't know that eBay is the future of of online retail

Speaker A

or thing, but uh it it had this pretty decent shake out of the 200. Snapped right back out really tight. So, this is more of a textbook area, but I mean right right away it it ded me out. So,

Speaker A

this was this was a quick stop at like the previous low uh as it as it just pulled in there and then actually took off later. So, uh lately anything I stopped on or took off early just continues higher. That's real sign of a

Speaker A

good market, right? So, um, you're going to get that volatility where you're you're trying to do a a prior low stop.

Speaker A

They tend to fish it when things are a little bit bumpy, but um, you get this kind of old tech. I think that's the pattern buy, but sometimes they're great, right? So, you're going to get pattern buy out of that. Uh, and then

Speaker A

that really took off. So, you're going from, you know, somewhere around uh, below below 70 and you're up to 80 there. So, so Mellie is one that I just got back in actually on this on this turn off the

Speaker A

50. It had a pretty good turn today. It was like up three% or something. Uh but it one of the things I I do too is we look for huge earnings jumps which we had uh I think in February and the bare

Speaker A

market pulled it back. Uh not anything else really. I just think okay there's our news that says they're they're fumbling their business. They they did great great earnings reaction and then just market selling took it back in. Uh

Speaker A

but the next time it it rose back to that level, we're getting in closing most of it into earnings here and then lucky earnings gap getting out on this drop here.

Speaker A

So that's that's what we're doing now. We're sizing it back up on the turn. So it's a lot of adbacks and when you identify a leader and this sort of pull back on top of this base, it's the other

Speaker A

thing with the 50 supporting it. And then you got, you know, ARGT. We're sort of comparing it to that ETF, which is this is about 21% I think the top folding there. Uh so you do want to see

Speaker A

the stocks that had the great earnings reactions and then revisit those after the bare market because the bare market pulls those back in. Uh and recently there was a selloff over free shipping.

Speaker A

They're offering free shipping to beat their competition. Sometimes that's a good thing. Maybe they keep their competition out for a while and they bust out and then they're they're back to charging like Prime or whatever, right? Like Amazon does get those fees

Speaker A

finally. So, little look at the chart here. Once again, not the perfect pivot, but I wouldn't buy this this pattern right now really. I mean, I I' I'd buy more textbook stuff uh as we as we extend, but just racing into the leaders

Speaker A

was is carefully as concentrated as I could get uh and getting on margin very quickly.

Speaker A

Can you go back to that one just uh the spot near 2100 is a little bit cleaner maybe uh through that reversal high.

Speaker A

Yeah, right. Right through that spot. Yeah. Yeah, I like that spot too. I just was late so I'm just, you know, looking for the next spot really. you know, that's a better spot actually, you know, coming down there. Uh 2100. Yeah, absolutely.

Speaker A

So, uh but then you realize we're waiting for that confirmation, right? So, it's like we're buying other leaders there, the ones we just mentioned. You sort of just can't I I really couldn't bring myself to just keep adding and

Speaker A

adding and adding and adding, but I am, right? It's just sort of like one one to three a day and you're doing like 10% size or something, 10 to 15, and try to ramp it up. and uh your your recent

Speaker A

gains off the bare market low. This is something also you got to understand. Off the bare low, you're you're going to have made a bunch of mistakes and you don't have like a bunch of recent gains to spend. That's a tough thing for

Speaker A

people to trade off the bare market low. Nobody has the gains basically unless you're an expert short. And my shorts actually were weren't getting it done either. But you sort of have to go very quickly with very quick risk management

Speaker A

like you saw Spotify that threw back. I'm out. like I I'm I don't have the recent gains to spend. Doesn't matter what I made last year or anything else.

Speaker A

Um you know, you're you're worried about the what you have what you have to work with right on the spot, right? That's that's the key. So, and uh you're taking this off because it kind of it had that

Speaker A

second close below the 21 EMA and then kind of confirming down. Uh is that that was the sell rule for this one? Yeah, we just moved it up and we didn't like the the the news driven spike with the on

Speaker A

volume through the 21 EMA. So, we moved it up to I don't know exactly where somewhere in there and then yeah, we're reattacking it here as it pulls back on top of support and uh it turned up today. Uh it

Speaker A

was you know I don't know what I don't know where it turned up too but it was up three.

Speaker A

It's right near the 21 again. Right. Right. Yeah. Oh yeah. And then popped back up to that. Right. What's the level? Where's it at now? Uh it's at uh 2450 right on right. Okay. So we we bought the turn at

Speaker A

like over this prior high there. So for 50 bucks or something was a good start.

Speaker A

Uh and we'll put a stop below that and the 50 there. So then you get you know we're pressing and pressing and maybe put all your money in LTH because it's got the ants on this on the left side.

Speaker A

Uh you really like this double bottom base which we did and it's sort of getting on everybody's radar. I think it's sort of a not really an IPO base, but it's it's kind of a I looked at it as almost a new

Speaker A

thing. I mean, I had even heard about it. We tried it back in here and and got stopped out on an earnings drop after taking off most of it. Uh but now we're we're on the right side of this and it

Speaker A

just blew out and then it spiked and rolled. And in hindsight, these ants during that the ants on the chart is up 20% and 15 out of 15 days up. Uh there's a lot of insiders selling there. So no

Speaker A

surprise this sort of rolled down anyway, but they're not all going to work. So this one was just a bust, you know, trying to buy that turn. And this this base is starting to get better, right? So it's like now it's starting to

Speaker A

look like uh double bottom base is tightening up throughout the pattern. And uh this acted like a leader during the bare market low. It didn't touch the 200. Now it is for some reason. So I don't know where it is today, but um

Speaker A

that's that was the case. So this is what it looked like. Get the ants. When you see the ants on the chart, I typically want to consider the right side of of the of the base, the same base.

Speaker A

So once again, this KRN was is our earnings pivot example, but once again, it's sort of double bottom IPO. So if you can IPO in a bare market and and really tighten up on the right side and act like a normal base, there's uh

Speaker A

something very positive going on there. And I think this is even up more from this. So this was one I got real heavy.

Speaker A

Um, and you can you can uh tweet at me if it if it crashes or something. But, uh, we're moving up the stop as we go and we're adding to it. Uh, but you're one of the things I I've discovered too

Speaker A

that I you negating the the head and shoulders pattern. You negate that right shoulder, you kind of tighten up and break out there. And it didn't go right away, but the stop held. I think just a standard 5% stop or so held. Uh, and we

Speaker A

had to give it a little bit of room. It's volatile off the off the bare market low. So, we held that in earnings. Uh, it was a good ad spot. So, you might want to take some off before

Speaker A

earnings and add it back. And that would have been uh kind of ideal there. Uh, cuz you don't really know the options volatility there. I don't know the options were really trading much. So, you just got to assume, you know, 10% or

Speaker A

so. Uh, is what you're going to get beating beating or the mansion or trailer, right? So, you see what happens. Uh, carame you we're adding on this this high handle as this IPO is starting to look successful uh getting

Speaker A

out there. So I try to try to instead of having you know chasing a bunch of cats around trying to have a fewer positions and we were having a lot of them but nothing nothing crazy like a mutual

Speaker A

fund. So trying to stick with the ads on something like this uh makes sense. And once again the bottom is the same thing.

Speaker A

The double bottom base and getting the right shoulder IPO rules we we the time frames we cut in half generally. So if you allow 8week base we'll allow four for IPO base. So, a little more aggressive with these and you get a

Speaker A

better look there. So, now it's got a 96 RS rating. Um, and it's trading pretty well. So, so from from this one, we went to cyber.

Speaker A

So, we this one threw back basically. So, we entered on May 1st, May 9th. It was just barely in the money and we closed it into earnings uh just because we didn't want to roll the dice and it

Speaker A

really didn't do anything on earnings. you he could have done this kind of post earnings pullback buy. So that's part of the earnings pivot strategy too is kind of fishing the turn after earnings because that's meaningful. It did well it didn't crash. They're

Speaker A

accepting it. Someone's still reading the the paperwork. They're reading the conference calls and then if it turns back up that's your spot and then uh that's where you you could have re reattacked it. So we closed it uh a

Speaker A

slight gain right into earnings. just basically even and then and then turning it up. So, we're getting a look at a lot of different ones here. Uh and trying to go in a group that we thought was going

Speaker A

to lead and that was cyber security and Schwab. We we bought this one once again just breaking this range. I think there was an upgrade. So, you know, at the buy point, sort of breaking that range there, double bottom. Uh so, it's just a

Speaker A

little bit of different trading for us off the lows that the patterns were very loose, but they're sort of just so much power. We're we're throwing the the risk on as they're all coming out there. Uh using the the spirit of the horizontal

Speaker A

pivot, you know, five four five day pivot there at highs. Uh trying that coming out. Um you know, and then this handle shook out and today it snapped back. So could probably just reattack it, but it was just a quick little trade

Speaker A

there. Um it's sort of at this point it's like one big ball of momentum. So you want to sort of adjust to a financial or something, right? You just don't want to have everything palenteer or curvana sort of they're all trade the

Speaker A

same hood we have hood we go over that later about that later uh sort of all the same stock for the most part uh you're going to get similar performance so you want to sort of spread out in

Speaker A

some different groups once those groups start to make sense uh there's a group that I'll show that that I tried that I realized I didn't want any part of and maybe it's starting to get ready now but it was was not good recently so

Speaker A

um let's So, this is the day we switched to green signals. I was heavily invested or on margin already as we're we're trying to push these out and getting pretty decent feedback except for the one or two um that were that we're

Speaker A

sizing off here. So, BSX, I think this is like it's a quality stock that we we traded pretty well before um but we entered May 1st and closed at May 12th.

Speaker A

So, this one really didn't go anywhere. Um and we sort of closed it even because we we didn't like the way the sector was acting. XBI even though it's kind of it's just the same sector, not really the same group or industry group. You

Speaker A

have UNH and VRTX and others. U you know ISRG sort of after this kind of blew out. Uh so you sort of want to diversify into some some other ones. You know, you you think our leaders got real earnings,

Speaker A

but we started to see that. So that's where I'm going to say, look, you know, this is something's wrong with this one, the whole group, so we're just going to move on to something else. And it turns out that was right to just close it even

Speaker A

even though it went up another $5 before before it dropped. So you take a look at that. And once again, it just barely, you know, tickled the 200 and and reset.

Speaker A

And that's what you want to see as a sign of strength in the bare market.

Speaker A

That's all it can do. That's leadership qualities there. All right. So Chewy, this is the other fun one here. The the pet one. I know Richard, you have some. You have a pet, I take it. Yeah. if you want to share.

Speaker A

I got we got that pet hiding under somewhere there. You want to bring them out?

Speaker A

No, she's sleeping in the sun right now. We've we've got the patio. There's finally some sun in Seattle, so she's enjoying it. But yeah, I'm part of the revenue of uh Chewy. They're they're they're nice, but um they throw in some

Speaker A

nice toys sometimes, daughters, which is cool. Nice. So yeah, I mean it looked good. So this is a nice little base and you know just kind of pull back and we we try to get like a early entry on a pullback

Speaker A

sort of inside day pullback in turn and that helped from the highs and what I've been saying about these highs is they throw back right so you're going to you want a 5% stop at highs everybody there was eliminated for sure our stop held so

Speaker A

you know we are it was like the low of the day or something and or right below it and it didn't even get there and I wasn't even looking at this and just snapped right back. Uh, so you know, and

Speaker A

then and then once again, it did get uh 20% out there. I felt dumb closing it early, but like I said, you have to start to book some of these, right?

Speaker A

That's the other thing. Um, I guess we'll look at Rubric there. You see this? It's just this is the pattern starting to get better as you get further away from the low. So, this is just your mini little pullback and a

Speaker A

little cheat there. Selling it up there. and then up here you feel dumb and then earnings dropped out there. So, um it it was okay to sell there in hindsight.

Speaker A

Whereas I did this with Roblox and then that went for like another 20%. So, sometimes it's like a blend of them.

Speaker A

You're you just sort you're never going to get the exact top. You're never going to well sometimes you're going to get picked off with your exact low too on your stops. It happens a lot, right?

Speaker A

Then just fish your stops and run it up. Uh you can see uh Chewy there.

Speaker A

There's a nice little run there. So, that will hold on to that. Uh maybe that'll reset. We'll take a look. But Octa, so we're just trying to get back in. So, Cyber looked okay for a minute, but I don't think we're going to hold

Speaker A

it. So, we look at Octa, and that group is strengthening. And we look like this this base is ready to go off the bare low. We get this tight area is a little too aggressive. So, I have a very small

Speaker A

size on something that's, you know, not really setting up like this. It's not setting up a very developed pivot. So, we're just kind of throwing that on.

Speaker A

Um, it did have a bad earnings reaction and I did have some left. So, uh, not not that bad of a loss. Just you going you want to take your first price at the open on a earnings selloff because that

Speaker A

got that got much worse anyway. Uh, and everybody asks like, you know, what's the trick to trying to keep it and all that, you know, everyone's just trying to be right, like you're wrong. The earnings are bad and you're wrong, so

Speaker A

you have to sell, right? I mean, of course, it could just bounce back, but the the reaction everybody says this this one shouldn't have been up there and now you're wrong. You just have to take your whip in there and get out. So,

Speaker A

that's what we did there after selling some in the strength and you get double digits up in the money and you go into earnings. It's it is definitely good to take some off in my view. Make sure you

Speaker A

you get something out of it in case this happens. And I don't think we got that bad of a fill either. just not even too far from our entry, but uh you know they could have kept that profitable. Uh

Speaker A

hood. So this one was a really great trade. It's still kind of trending higher there. I think it's like 77 or something. Um May 7th, you know, pull back by post earnings, right? So this is part of the I'd say this is like the

Speaker A

earnings pivot, but we do like earnings pullback. So maybe I need some better names for it or something, but we just call it earnings pullback or earnings pivot. Uh so that's what we're looking at here is it as it pulled back and

Speaker A

turned. We're just loading up there and really straight in the money. So that was pretty good and even adding back uh up there and maybe more ad spots along the way. But this was a real leader and you can see that the the top of the

Speaker A

market there right before the bears S&P 500 is on the chart there. Uh and we got that 50% jump. So we sold some and added back. But it was leading. I mean this is this is the the look. I don't have this

Speaker A

one jumping out, I guess. But you you have this up to, you know, 6 67 at the at the highs there of the market and then drop down just to the 200, then tighten up. Uh, you know, that's this

Speaker A

one looks like a really strong and it was likely just pulled back by the market. So, we're looking for some kind of an entry on the right side of that.

Speaker A

And earnings didn't shoot it up, but it was tight. Like I said, they maybe they were reading some of the conference calls and people started to get behind it and that turn looked good to me. So that was one of our better trades

Speaker A

recently and still still holding it. Um Spotify still holding this one. Uh really since 200 sub 200 been trading this one. Some of them are uh you go back look at your markings like what was I doing there? Uh in hindsight some

Speaker A

sometimes it's going to look bad but a lot of these really ripped pretty good here. So, this this one's been trending uh really nice. You got the double bottom with the with the the the bare market low there. You know, like I said,

Speaker A

you get in step with the leader, you dance till the music stops. So, just keep playing it or hold it, right? I mean, if you want to do it that way, too. Uh so, this is sort of like the

Speaker A

handle low fish that we were talking about. So, I looked at this as sort of the handle on the right side. So, we're, you know, kind of dropped in, got an inside day or two and then turned there.

Speaker A

So that's where we're checking that and probably little ad spots along the way and this I think this even got a little more today. So uh this this this was a a re-entry like we this was our first

Speaker A

and then we got back in then the first one got obviously threw back and we we got out and and and reattacked it. So um just not taking that personally. Stocks can act up right. So uh Roblox did this

Speaker A

look like at the bare low. I mean, you just have to train the eye. Obviously, just bang, right on the 200 there. There was buyers there and this has gone to 100 now. So, I closed it in the 80s and

Speaker A

this is like to what I was saying about Chewy. Um, you know, you get your 20% rips. Some of them are going to tank, some of them are going to continue. Uh, but you sort of want to target where you

Speaker A

think you're you're going to be profitable. And like I said, you're holding one big ball of momentum. You got Hood, Carvana, Robux. It's sort of like being Arc Invest or something at one point, right? Except maybe more quality. I think they kind of uh some of

Speaker A

the stuff they buy, I don't understand, but and they're living below the moving averages. Uh but, you know, they they have their own style, which is which is cool. So, uh I have my style. It's going to be stocks and uptrends that are high

Speaker A

growth, right? If it's it's in a downtrend and it's high growth or or is under the moving averages, I don't even look at it. So, uh but this is very on theme with the video games. We're looking at take two digital

Speaker A

subscriptions are seem to be uh popular and tariffs probably unaffected by that. Maybe unaffected by recessions and all that. I mean, maybe you're not going to cancel your Spotify uh or Netflix, right? So, they're not that expensive. Uh

Speaker A

so, yeah, this this was like a little bit of a handle low fish there. Once again, a little creative buy as we're coming off the lows. one snapped right to highs and then did this little pullback and tightened up and turn

Speaker A

there. So, that's that's where we're looking at that using some daily high in the inside day or two. Uh you're looking for some low volume or shake out. We got a little shake out there and that's sort of it gives you that stop protection in

Speaker A

the handle. I look at I look at that as a little bit of if your stop is below that, you're you're probably safer than usual, right? Like the low of the day. I mean, that that's where you're really

Speaker A

wrong. now after the the shakeout low. So anyway, that's that's it for now. That's that's what I got for the conference. But you know, thanks thanks for having me and this is uh you can trade with me on Champion Team Trading.

Speaker A

This is uh my little ad here if you want to check that out. We love to have everybody that kind understands what I'm doing and it's word of mouth only. So stop by, check it out.

Speaker A

Perfect. Le uh could you run back to that uh Roblox chart real quick? Uh it's funny. You know, I noticed this. This is one of the names I had in my list as holding the 200 SMA, but I I was just

Speaker A

watching other stuff when it when it's set up. But this has been one of like the unsung Nobody's really talking about this on Twitter, but it's been one of the best runners uh and movers.

Speaker A

Everybody's watching Hood and Palunteer, but this has really performed well. Um I want to highlight something that you mentioned about, you know, the tight days on low volume. That's really the signature that you're looking for to set up the entry point, right? is that tight

Speaker A

range tight days. Yeah. For the pullbacks. Do you want to expand on that a little bit?

Speaker A

Company's pulling back on low volume. I look at it as okay and maybe there's a little shake out. It's low volume. Uh the sellers just just the final sellers got out. That creates the handle. It's like the the people that are back to

Speaker A

even, right? So, say you buy your house at a million, you want to sell it, but it goes to 800. Goes back to a million.

Speaker A

Now you're even. That's where you're selling and depressing the price. And then maybe your house is on the way to 2 million though, right? But that's the little handle before that. So the sellers are they're praying every night

Speaker A

that if only I get back to even, that's where it gets back to the high. Then they they create the handle. And you want to see them not too excited. You want to see low volume puking the stocks

Speaker A

out there, making that handle and tightening up. Uh and then you want to see the volume pushing it out, taking out one of those highs there. And I tend to get ahead of the highs even though you probably could have bought this high

Speaker A

in hindsight, but I that's not the way I typically do it. You can add to it there too and you can add as you go.

Speaker A

Uh but this got a little extended for me from the 200. So sort of like from where this 75 was to the 200. I thought this spot was about as far away as that. So I said, well, it it's very similar in

Speaker A

distance and it's the risk multiples I'm looking for. Uh let's close it down there and uh maybe let it set up a new base or whatever and then now it's over a hundred. So um I'm never going to get

Speaker A

the exact top. I I've done it once or twice actually with within a few pennies, but uh not it's very unusual.

Speaker A

Yeah. And then um by the way, it's awesome to see all the case studies because I think people can really study the entry points that you're talking about and encourage them to mark it up on their own charts, take a look at what

Speaker A

it looks like and see the commonalities. Um in terms of what you said earlier about, you know, after a correction really just trying to, you know, work your way in in terms of instead of trying to find and wait for a perfect

Speaker A

handle to set up. Can you expand on that because I think that's a really important concept. Identifying the names that have the potential and just trying to find a way in versus wait for, you know, the ideal setup that isn't going

Speaker A

to come until it's already moved, you know, well off the lows. Yeah. I mean, the the leaders the the the way they pulled back, they kind of all gave it away in my view. Some of them, like I said, they're, you know,

Speaker A

LTH just blew out or whatever, but for the most part, the other ones held. They they gave you the clues that there was support during the pullback. There was buyers during the pullback. Uh that's why I'm not looking at, you know, I'm

Speaker A

thinking of like now NO or something. It was like below the 200. Okay. During the during this pullback, everything I looked at really held quite well with maybe a there was a few maybe Carvana or something a couple days below it. Uh but

Speaker A

for the most part, we're we're looking at stocks that maintain the trend. So I'd say I'm also a trend follower as I'm sort of working around that idea that we're we're trying to get something in a trend. And as this is trending, this

Speaker A

sets up a base. And there's even a better entry if you want to go aggressive around 60. You get a couple days tight there on the 50. Uh coming off the bare low. I wasn't ready to try this one yet. I was a little unsure

Speaker A

about this one. And then you're going into earnings and uh it was the earnings pullback. You know, it kind of shot up on earnings and pulled back once again.

Speaker A

So we're we're using all the all these methods. And then, you know, obviously the practice is how you get to see that and get good at it. And I've never seen anybody run through a bare market low with the leaders like this. So, I think

Speaker A

this is a good presentation. I'll give myself an A. Yeah, there you go. No, I think um this is the way to build the pattern recognition, right? Is to to see how you would do it or somebody else does it.

Speaker A

The buy the buy points that they're pointing out. Uh, and then with all of these, as you're going through them, what you want to think about is, all right, that's my entry point. Where is the tight and logical spot to manage

Speaker A

risk? You know, is it the the low of the range? Is it the low of the day on the when would I move up that stop? That's the type of me mental exercise that can really help you out until you've traded

Speaker A

your own way through a few, you know, a few cycles. And even then, it's uh it's great practice. And to build, you know, to build the skills that you need in real time, you have to go back and

Speaker A

study, you know, how how you would have done in the past. So, I think this is awesome. Um, in terms of key takeaways that you'd like people to have from, uh, this session today, uh, we've already touched on a few, you know, the the

Speaker A

tight tight bias spots. Um, you know, uh, finding the leaders early and building into them. Anything else that you really want people to walk away from today, uh, you know, you know, remembering going into the future this the leaders present themselves at

Speaker A

the lows in in this manner for the most part. Okay. and and yeah, is it going to be a perfect pattern coming off of it one of the most volatile, you know, messes at a bare market? No, it's going

Speaker A

to be a little bit messy. Is the the spirit of the pattern? Uh the overall the combining all the ideas to say that this is a supported stock. They're going to go back to it when the market joins

Speaker A

the party, right? The market runs up and moves everybody back in this stock and they were already buying it when it was was going down. That's the whole point of this presentation really is is is getting a look at the lows. Um, you

Speaker A

know, Spotify during a whole bare market didn't do anything. Like you got to go back and look at all these and you know, even Octa didn't touch the moving averages. Uh, what are we looking at here? Chewy just scraped it, you know,

Speaker A

trended nicely. So as soon as the market comes back and that the right side of that starts to look okay, these are the ones that the market's going to run up and it's trying to force your way in

Speaker A

them makes sense. But then now when it's very clear that the market's uh you know this strong again or sort of rolling out of the bear then you sort of want to go more pattern buying in these leaders

Speaker A

right and add on and try to stay with them. Uh you got Roblox just keeps extending. So, um, and really Chewy would have been okay if it wasn't for earnings. Maybe just I tend to, that's why I focus on the earnings pivots,

Speaker A

earnings pullbacks because there's a lot of runway once you, you know, you get through earnings and then you can let that trend happen and not say, "Oh, what do I have to do here?" Like my Melly trade, where's this?

Speaker A

Yeah, it was right there. Yeah. So Melly, I mean, it was looking good and then going into earnings, I got to pull it off because I'm only up a little bit on it. I'm not going to just roll the dice on this one. Um, you know,

Speaker A

so so we took it down to like a quarter size and you know, just trading a little bit trying to get back in now. Uh, but you know, if if this was post earnings and you got this move, you could keep

Speaker A

going. There's just a lot of runway unless there was news. There was some shipping news or something, but you want the runway. Roblox definitely had runway. It was post earnings.

Speaker A

Let's take a look at that if we can find Roblox here. Yeah. And as you're doing that, I think another key takeaway that people should have is be thinking about the themes.

Speaker A

Again, thinking beyond the pattern, grouping different themes. What is the market rewarding? You tried the biotech names, they didn't quite work. You focused elsewhere on the names that were working. So, I think that's another key takeaway to to to focus on for folks.

Speaker A

Yeah. Here's Robux. Yeah. Yes. You had runway after after earnings, right? Right. So, so this went through earnings and just it's got plenty of runway. There's nothing nothing to knock it down. There's no there's no news.

Speaker A

There's no nothing. So, the problem with Chewy was it had earnings and that it shot it down. I mean, you you want that runway and that's why I focus on earnings pivots, earnings pullback. So, uh I should have put Rocket Lab on that.

Speaker A

Look at the last earnings for Rocket Lab. this little turn. Almost got 50% out of that from there. Same thing. It's a powerful stock. They digest earnings and it turns like this little handle here somewhere. Uh then you've got

Speaker A

plenty of runway. You know, they they didn't mess up. They they're digesting the earnings like Hood. Uh we got to take a look at Hood.

Speaker A

Hood was a little bit of the same. I don't have the popup here, but you know, you had earnings. It was a day tight and then it turned. That's plenty of runway and it's still going. It's like 77 now

Speaker A

or something I think. So that's that's what you want that earnings behind you. At least I do. I just trade better that way. You know, I get get it behind me and then I have a chance for it to trend

Speaker A

and the money just, you know, continuously buys it and the sellers are not there as much because they're not nervous about the next earnings. Um they're happy with the the last earnings and you know it's the can slim method.

Speaker A

It's the earnings are there. So, and behind you, right, you got to have good earnings. I want to see beat and raise and that's where the the earnings pullbacks the same thing. Sometimes it's just unsure bare market. They're not

Speaker A

going to launch it a couple days tight. You could try the turn. If if you think it's a leader, this acted great. Uh it treaded great. I think the market pulled it back. And that's what you want to

Speaker A

see. You want to see great earnings like this one here. February earnings shot it out. And what took it down? I think the market, the bare market pulled it back.

Speaker A

So once the bear is over, you got to look to reattack this one. There's something going on there just like Melly. And is the entry going to be perfect off the bare market low?

Speaker A

Probably not. But as long as the spirit of your entry is there, I think you're all right. Yeah, get GEV was another one that had uh earnings pretty early on on the higher low. Uh I think April 24th

Speaker A

that had a nice spot right after earnings were reconfirmed higher through a pivot. And that that's been one of the the energy nuclear theme ones that's been acting really nicely.

Speaker A

That that was a okay earnings pivot. The problem is I think it opened high and then dropped. So it just yeah it didn't have the technical move that I needed and I just sort of missed that spot. But

Speaker A

I've traded that uh in the past pretty well. That's like your blue chip nuclear name which is great. We have from here I'm trading VST nuclear names and you know like I showed Ollo uh we're still hitting that theme and taking scales and

Speaker A

trying to stick with some of these leaders as as there's still runway and I think there's still runway in some of these but now they're getting very extended right so you see how far it can go from the 200 that's you know you get

Speaker A

up to 80 okay now you're very extended off the 200 again you're up in the nose please probably want to take you down a little bit the you depending on your style. Uh so that's that's what I did

Speaker A

with Chewy and I was right after Ernie, right? Because Ernie, we're going to get Ernie again, but not for a while on Hood. So, we'll see.

Speaker A

Yep. Perfect. Uh Lle, this is this has been amazing. Uh any other um key messages that you want to leave everybody with watching today? Uh regarding either trading after market market corrections or um you know uh you know any any general advice with

Speaker A

interpreting charts too would be would be awesome. Uh general advice I don't know but interpreting charts let me think or or just studying case studies like this. What what what should people do to make the most out of

Speaker A

Okay. From this present from this presentation, I think the best thing to do would be sort of review what the leaders looked like at the lows and that's what I did on the slide. So, you're you're not going to typically be

Speaker A

at a depression if you have a lot of your leaders not even touching the 200 day moving average. So, you start to get some confidence. Uh but they have to build some kind of a tight area as the

Speaker A

you get the higher lows in the market and you're not buying right off the lows. It's really the bare market sequence. So, I just think studying this bare market sequence is really the key takeaway. Uh because there there'll be a

Speaker A

bare market again. I mean, there's there's always one around the corner. Uh then you got to be ready to capitalize off that low. And people wait for too much confirmation. This is the thinking beyond the pattern. By the time it's

Speaker A

obvious that we're back to highs in the index, yeah, it's easy to shoot it down with some news. They start shooting some missiles at each other. Uh you're you're going to sell off. And now you're you're getting your lowrisk entries, you know,

Speaker A

hit because the market did this Vshape. It's almost like a COVID snapback. A very quick, you know, V-shaped snapback.

Speaker A

Uh but once you get back to highs, that's where maybe you need the handle, right? So everybody gets back to highs.

Speaker A

It I I I swear I'll behave myself. Just let me get back to highs. And people pray for that. And you get you get the handle. Sometimes it's just the news, the excuse to to put that handle in for

Speaker A

the digestion. and now you're late. So, the other thing is uh sort of buying when things are the hardest. And I actually tweeted this uh the on the 15th I think of June uh that things look good for a lot of

Speaker A

leaders and it's hard to buy. And then the next day, boom, everything's off and all those leaders are moving. But did you see that they were all set up? They're not setting up cuz you're about to blow up, right? If the leaders are setting up

Speaker A

in a difficult tape, that's when I typically go in a little harder than most people because you're it's also like a little bit of a game of poker, right? It's like you're sitting there and and most people aren't willing to do

Speaker A

this because they're all nervous about the news, but the stocks are telling you it's okay, right? You got everything at a buy point, all the leaders you're looking at. Uh, and then on a day like today, which is not anything on the

Speaker A

slides here, uh, everything starts. There's so many setups. I couldn't have bought them all. They all moved too fast off the open. Uh, but I had the ones I wanted. So, yep. Buying when it's difficult, when stocks are setting up equals improving

Speaker A

your odds. And that's sort of what this presentation shows. Also, it was not easy to buy all these. I think a lot of people thought I was nuts, but it's the confirmation I got as I went, right?

Speaker A

It's not some com like I'm on the news and I'm saying I'm bullish, you know, for random reasons. The stocks are proving it and the gains are proving it.

Speaker A

One, yeah, one or two mess up and it's always going to be the case. Uh but you know you get 50% or more on hood and these kind of moves here with carvana and stuff that that's where you make

Speaker A

some some really good gains and it's not going to be that easy when the market snaps a V to the highs and you maybe you need that shake out where things aren't easy right everyone's got you're waiting for too much confirmation you're waiting

Speaker A

for too much perfect pattern we are using the patterns though and uh I definitely respect pattern lying but we're we're using the spirit of one to try to force our way in leaders in this case.

Speaker A

Yep. Excellent. Well, Leif, thank you again for for your time. You're watching. Hope you're enjoyed. Make sure to leave a like down below if you are and we'll be right back. Take care.

Topics:High Tight FlagSwing TradingTraderLionPattern BuyingAverage True RangeRelative StrengthMarket LeadersRisk ManagementBear MarketStock Trading Setup

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