Pradeep Bonde reveals his Episodic Pivot strategy focusing on magnitude moves, situational awareness, and catalyst-driven trades for high returns.
Ask about this video. Answers come from its transcript only — with the timestamp, so you can check them.
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Key Takeaways
- Focus on magnitude moves with clear catalysts for higher probability trades.
- Maintain situational awareness daily to decide if market conditions favor breakouts or breakdowns.
- Enter trades early on breakout days to reduce risk and secure a free trade.
- Use tight consolidation patterns to identify explosive breakout candidates.
- Always identify the next buyer to ensure liquidity and the ability to exit profitably.
What the video covers
- Pradeep Bonde emphasizes trading magnitude moves of 80-200% within days or weeks rather than long duration trades.
- He highlights the importance of situational awareness to determine if breakouts or breakdowns are likely to work on any given day.
- Bonde advocates for buying early on breakout days to minimize stop loss and maximize trade efficiency.
- He stresses the need for tight price action before breakouts to allow for closer stops and better risk management.
- Catalysts, whether major or minor, are crucial to justify a stock’s move and improve win rates.
- The strategy involves identifying the 'greater fool' or next buyer to sell to, leveraging market psychology.
- Bonde uses scans like EP9 million and reversal bullish scans to identify high-probability setups.
- He prefers institutional-quality stocks for larger positions and limits exposure on lower quality stocks.
- Trades are designed to last 3-5 days, focusing on quick, aggressive moves rather than holding long-term.
- The talk includes practical insights on trade management, stop placement, and avoiding stale or extended setups.
Chapters
- 00:00Introduction to Magnitude Moves and T2108 Indicator
- 06:38Importance of Catalyst in Breakouts
- 14:10Home Runs and Mini Home Runs Trade Setups
- 21:22Trade Example Using ETF CRCA for Magnified Returns
- 28:28Research Process and Volume Analysis
- 35:52Reversal Bullish Scans and Trade Identification
- 49:11Tracking Market Sentiment and Next Buyer Identification
- 55:51Stop Placement and Trade Management
- 61:59Trade Duration and Position Sizing Principles
- 76:04Situational Awareness and Market Conditions Assessment
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
So if anybody likes T2108, I always tell people, right, if T2108 goes below 20, start getting bullish. If it goes below 10, you should be extremely bullish. And if at all it goes into single digits, sell your wife, kids, donkey, horses, whatever it is, and buy the market. You're likely to make money, guaranteed. So, [snorts] magnitude moves are these moves which are very, very aggressive, 80, 100%, 200%. They happen in a few days or weeks.
Speaker A
These are like meteors which shine brightly for a short period of time, and then they might just kill themselves or whatever might happen. EP, [snorts] is what people know most about, but, uh, in reality, EP is the least important setup for me today. EP, 9 million, and D, which is delayed reaction EP, these are the two main setups. What is an age? Age is just like three ways to make money in the market. Either be first, or be smart, or cheat. When you buy at 358, you are first, you are also smart, and you're also cheating compared to people who do it in the nights. The goal is to remove every in-the-moment decision, standardize like a factory, have a process flow, have a conveyor belt of ideas coming. I'm not going to chase it. No matter how good the idea, I'm not going to chase. Right?
Speaker A
And I'm James Bond. Have you seen in a Bond movie Bond chasing girls or girls chase Bond? I don't chase. I'm going to wait. If I lose, fine, there is always the next trade. Right now, this talk on this particular day, there was no news. Uh, even if I had seen the news, it was not gapping up. There was no reason for me to even look at it pre-market or things like that because it wasn't even gapping.
Speaker A
But this stock traded around 10 million shares. That is when I started researching it. So I bought it on that day based on this thing and this thing. Based on that information, I thought it would make like a 30, 40% move. It ended up making that in seven bars. [music]
Speaker A
All right, welcome back everybody. It's my pleasure to introduce the next speaker of the Trailine conference, Praep Bond. He's the founder of Stockby and the mentor to market wizards. And today he's going to be discussing quite a few concepts, his key trade setups, and how to create a trade factory, and a lot of the nuances that I think most people don't understand about episodic pivots, momentum bursts, and his way of trading. So Praep, uh, first of all, thank you so much for being a part of this once again. I appreciate you taking the time and, uh, looking forward to this.
Speaker A
Welcome. Yeah, sure. Welcome. Thank you. Yeah, let's dive in. Yes. Uh, so let's start by looking at some of the core things which I look for and, uh, what I am, uh, looking for when I am doing my personal trading is I have a clearly defined thing that I want to focus on: magnitude moves and not duration moves. So magnitude moves are these moves which are very, very aggressive, 80, 100%, 200%. They happen in a few days or weeks, and like these are like meteors which shine brightly for a short period of time, and then they might just kill themselves or whatever might happen. I'm not looking for duration moves of weeks and months and all, and I have nothing against people who trade that, but that's not my cup of tea.
Speaker A
Okay. Uh, the next thing which is like a very, uh, key to my, uh, looking at this, uh, whatever I'm doing every day, I'm looking for situational awareness. That's like an absolute must, in fact, and I have like, uh, some, uh, things which, uh, somebody has made for me and, uh, which is like basically a quote on situational awareness which says that look, if you're hitting on girls at a funeral, do we have situational awareness? Okay. So it's like every day morning I'm trying to answer some of these questions.
Speaker A
Are breakouts likely to work? Uh, are breakdowns likely to work? And that's the starting point. So if I don't know whether breakouts are going to work, then nothing is going to happen. Right? And that's the, uh, thing which is so situational awareness, extremely important. The more I trade, the more I understand that the key really is situational awareness once you are set up because the moment you lose situational awareness, drawdowns, uh, breakouts stop working, you get into a very frustrated phase. So I only trade with situational awareness. That means there are times when I'm not going to put a trade or I'm just going to put some few hundred shares or some position just to check the water, and I'm not going to be really excited.
Speaker A
Uh, there are some absolutes which I have created for myself which are like, always buy on the first day of a breakout and as early as possible because if you're going to be buying breakouts, the earlier the entry, the better it is because if you enter early, by the end of the day you have a buffer, you can move your stop to break even and the trade is free. If you enter late, your stop is going to be wider. So everything when I talk about my trade factory is based on these principles. These are like the foundations for everything. So I really, really focus on the first half an hour or one hour of the market open because if I can get in there, then it's all easy.
Speaker A
Uh, whenever I'm buying breakouts or anything which I'm doing, like, and if I'm going to buy any stock, I must always look for tightness. I want to see two tight days or three tight days or four tight days. And that's like one of the ways in which you can get a closer stop because if a stock is having a very tight action, then the explosion makes sense, buying breakout makes sense. So, uh, that's one or a negative day. Uh, I always look for young setups and moves which is like, uh, one of the problems which I see in trading, uh, when I see outside traders and even some of the Stockby members, they're buying moves which are late, they're buying setups which are stale, they're buying setups extended. Uh, so the more you buy extended setups, it's like you're going to be just not so, uh, we actually have a saying on Stockby: be a cougar and go for young things and not like on a date older things, right? And basically, uh, always look for catalyst. This is a new thing which I added more and more now. Uh, even if I'm buying a regular breakout, I always want to find what is the catalyst, meaning like is there a reason why this should go up? Right? There are a lot of pretty looking breakouts which happen and you buy and nothing happens because there's no reason why the stock should go up, right? And so always look for some catalyst. It may not be a major catalyst. It might be a minor catalyst.
Speaker A
It might be a sector. It might be a theme. It might be some recent news. Uh, it might be government policy. But something has to be there for this thing to move. That's one thing which I have really added in recent years to improve the win rate. The second thing which I added also, which is related to this, is whenever I'm buying, I'm always thinking, okay, who is the fool or the next person to whom I can sell this?
Speaker A
Right? If I can articulate, look, there are these people who will be buying this because it is going to reach this resistance level or they are going to re-buy this because they are, like, you know, looking at some sort of a level to buy or things like that, then I can sell to somebody, right? If I cannot articulate and figure out who's going to be the next set of buyers for this, then I'm the only fool who's buying, right? And this is a greater fool theory, right? We buy, make money by selling to somebody who doesn't understand or who buys on the third day or fourth day or who follows a newsletter or, uh, who is like kind of believes in some, uh, buy points which are like above your entry points. So that's another thing which I'm always, and this is why I track some of these things on Twitter and all other traders, and I look at where are they going to buy, where are they going to get excited about, and then the game is to try and buy before them and sometimes sell it to them or, uh, they come in and the move gets magnified. So that's another thing which I always look at. I always ask this question, okay, look.
Speaker A
Ok.
Speaker A
clearly defined thing that I want to focus on magnitude moves and not duration moves. So magnitude moves are these moves which are like very very aggressive 80 100% 200% they happen in a few days or weeks and like these are
Speaker A
like meteors which bright shine brightly for a short period of time and then they might like just kill themselves or whatever might happen. I'm not looking for duration moves of weeks and months and all and I have nothing against
Speaker A
people who trade that but that's not my cup of tea. Okay. uh the next thing which is like a very uh key to my uh looking at this uh whatever I'm doing every day I'm looking for situational awareness that's like
Speaker A
absolute must in fact and I have like uh some uh things which uh somebody has made for me and uh which is like basically a quote on situational awareness which says that look if you're hitting on girls at a funeral do we have
Speaker A
situational awareness Okay. So it's like every day morning I'm trying to answer some of these question.
Speaker A
Are breakouts likely to work? Uh are breakdowns likely to work? And that's the starting point. So if I don't know whether breakouts are going to work then nothing is going to happen. Right? And that's the uh thing which is so
Speaker A
situational awareness extremely important. The more I trade, the more I understand that the key really is situational awareness once you are set up because the moment you you lose situational awareness, draw downs, uh breakouts stop working, you get into
Speaker A
very frustrated phase. So I only trade with situational awareness. That means there are times when I'm not going to put a trade or I'm just going to put some few 100 shares or some position just to check the water and I'm not
Speaker A
going to be really excited. uh there are some absolutes which I have created for myself which are like a always buy a first day of a breakout and as early as possible because if you're going to be buying breakouts the earlier
Speaker A
the entry the better it is because if you enter early by the end of the day you have a buffer you can move your stop to break even and the trade is free if you enter late your stop is going to be
Speaker A
wider so everything when I talk about my trade factory is based on these principles these are like the foundations for everything. So I like really really focus on the first half an hour or 1 hour of the market open
Speaker A
because if I can get in there then it's all easy. Uh whenever I'm buying breakouts or anything which I'm doing like and if I'm going to buy any stock uh I must I always look for tightness. I want to see
Speaker A
two tight days or three tight days or four tight days. And that's like in a one of the ways in which you can get closer stop because if a stop is having a very tight action then the explosion
Speaker A
makes sense buying breakout makes sense. So uh that's one or a negative day. uh I always look for young setups and moves which is like uh one of the problems which I see in trading uh when I see
Speaker A
outside traders and even some of the stock be members they're buying moves which are like in a late they're buying setups which are like stale they're buying setups extended uh so the more you buy extended setup it's like in a
Speaker A
you're going to be just not so uh we actually have a saying on stock beside be a cougar and go for young things and not like in a date older things right and basically uh always look for catalyst this is a
Speaker A
new thing which I added more and more now uh even if I'm buying a regular breakout I always want to find what is the catalyst mean like is there a reason why this should go up right there are a
Speaker A
lot of prettyl looking breakouts which happen and you buy and nothing happens because there's no reason why the stock should go up right and I so always look for some catalyst it may not be a major catalyst it It might be minor catalyst.
Speaker A
It might be a sector. It might be a theme. It might be some recent news. Uh it might be government policy. But something has to be there for this thing to move. That's one thing which I have like really added in the recent years to
Speaker A
improve the win rate. The second thing which I added also which is related to this is whenever I'm buying I'm always thinking okay who is the fool or the next person to whom I can sell this to?
Speaker A
Right? If I can articulate look at a there are these people who will be buying this because it is going to reach this resistance level or they are going to re buy this because they are like you know looking at some sort of a level to
Speaker A
buy or things like that then I can sell to somebody right if I cannot articulate and figure out who's be the next set of buyers for this uh then I'm I'm the only fool who's buying right and this is a
Speaker A
greater fool theory right uh we buy make money by selling to somebody who doesn't understand or who buys on third day or fourth day or who follows a newsletter or uh who is like kind of believes in some uh buy points which are like above
Speaker A
your entry points. So that's another thing which I'm always and this is why I track some of these things on Twitter and all other traders and I look at what where are they going to buy where are they going to get excited about and then
Speaker A
the game is to try and buy before them and sometimes sell it to them or uh they come in and the move gets magnified so that's another thing which I always look at I always ask this question okay look
Speaker A
okay if I buy this whom am I going to sell this to right and then always look for opportunity to size up and this is uh like you know one of the key nowadays which is like the more funds I have to
Speaker A
trade uh it becomes more difficult to trade this small $3 $5 or some of the other moves they are very very attractive and they look very attractive but I can't size them so I exclusively focus on more fund quality stocks and
Speaker A
fund quality I define it as something which is owned by buy 100 plus funds or thousand plus funds. So that way you're buying something and there are enough opportunities in a fund quality place that I don't have to go into the lower
Speaker A
quality. I don't mind like there is a lot of money in this low uh lower capitalization nano cap, micro cap and small caps. But the problem is you cannot size up and if I cannot size up uh then you cannot larger amount of sums
Speaker A
of money uh by doing those kind of trading. that yes for somebody else who has a smaller capital base that's a very nice opportunity I also built my capital to where it is by doing those kind of things but the game has changed for me
Speaker A
things have changed life is different now so I'm looking for fun quality thing and also sizing up uh the really this thing is once you age is how much can you size up and where are the opportunity to size up and that's every
Speaker A
day I look for opportunity where can I size up where can put big position uh always develop new agents and variations. Uh expand your playbook. Uh most people outside of stock B and all they know they think that I am trading
Speaker A
EP. EP is the least important setup for me nowadays. Right? And I have a variation of EP which I trade and it gives me more opportunities than EP because I know the age on EP is less and less and gaps are too high. So I created
Speaker A
a variations and there is no end to creating variations uh because you cannot depend on one age. Ages deteriorated, deteriorate, ages evolve, ages become too popular. Uh they make entries difficult. So I have an variations of EP which is delayed
Speaker A
reaction EP or EP9 million or some other wages which are not yet in public domain because we don't want the ages to deteriorate and uh the one of the things always study 20% and 50% moves. This is like an
Speaker A
absolute rule as far as I'm concerned because I make money by buying moves which will make 20 or 50% move in a short period of time. So I want to study them obsessively to see how they move and get so every day I study 20% plus
Speaker A
every day I study 50 stocks which go up 50% plus in a short period of time and uh this I learned from my previous uh career where I used to I worked for advertising for uni liver uni liver is a
Speaker A
market leader in the world in detergent underarms deodorants and all still today every day they like in a catch hold of some 500 people and study how they put where did how much deodorant they did they put in what happened uh and things
Speaker A
they're obsessed and the reason uni liver tells you when you join uni liver that the day they stop obsessing about understanding consumer the game is over because somebody is going to outsmart them so same way 20% 50% that's like
Speaker A
golden standard as for that and all my learnings all setup ideas entries exit Everything comes from that study. And then age turnaround and rotation. Uh I believe that real money is in how frequently you can turn around your age.
Speaker A
The more frequently you can turn around your age, uh the more better it is rather than looking for longer luration ages. So that's the core part of the philosophy for whatever I'm going to go through in terms of my trade factory.
Speaker A
Okay. So using the principles which I discussed with you and those foundation ideas or that is my uh really my business defined as what I'm trying to do and what are things important to me. What I operate on a daily basis is a trade factory
Speaker A
which is like a daily process flow which takes all things into consideration. It's a continuous loop. Uh there are things which I do pre-market. There are things do I do at the opening. There are things I do at 1:30. There are things I
Speaker A
do at 3:00, 3:30, 3:58 and so on and so forth. It's a wellthoughtout trade factory to trade the kind of setups which I want to trade and the ideas which I want to trade.
Speaker A
So it's a defined process and setup tools run on a continuous loop designed to consistently find trades. The goal is to remove every in the- moment decision standardize like a factory have a process flow have a conveyor belt of
Speaker A
ideas coming when the ideas come in. uh there is some quality control process context there is a set of rules or set of like criteria a stock needs to meet and everything is uh then pre-planned there is nothing which I'm doing which
Speaker A
is like on the fly basically right trade the tools execute the plan and you just follow the trade factory uh anything which is outside trade factory I don't even care about I don't even take a trade so the trade factory has two
Speaker A
conveyor belts or two sections. One is which is home runs and mini home runs. These are the setups which I trade which can move my account in one trade to 20% or more uh or sometimes like even more uh in terms
Speaker A
of it can even move uh more than 100% in one trade. So these are different quality of ideas or they have a magnitude which is greater than a normal kind of a magnitude which is going to be uh possible. So for this like I say uh I
Speaker A
trade a set of setups and not just one setup. EP is what people know most about but uh in reality EP is least important setup for me today. EP 9 million and D which is delayed reaction EP. These are
Speaker A
the two main setups. out of that like really uh EP9 million produces the most returns for me and D which is a variation of EP9 million which produces most setups basically and I'll go into detail as to what those setups are but
Speaker A
uh so for these I run scans so the scans are EP9 million and DAP so EP9 million is a scan where I look for a stock which has made more than 9 million volume traded for that particular day is a scan
Speaker A
which I run to find stocks which have done that in last one month and then I look for uh lowrisk entry on them and I'll get into details on explaining this whole thinking behind why I'm doing this what what is the logic behind this setup
Speaker A
once I'll go through this particular slide now but I'm not dependent on mini home runs and home runs only because there is like an whenever you're doing this kind of a trading uh because of the kind of stocks which are in the way the
Speaker A
kind of moves they make you need wider stop you need 8 10 20% kind of a stop sometime in order to trade these kind of moves so I also trade something which I call as singles or base heat which are
Speaker A
like pattern based this is all catalyst based this is pattern based okay in this I'm just looking for a trade which is like going to move my account half a percent or 5% uh in one trade so if I
Speaker A
like say buy a breakout and if it was like say 20% of my account and it goes up 25%. It's going to move overall capital by 5%. Or I bought a stock 20% and it just went like in a 10% I'm going
Speaker A
to make 2% but I'm happy taking those trades because those singles add up and they give me the buffer to take a trade with a size here. If I don't do single I'll never be able to do size. So it's a
Speaker A
combination of these two approaches and they are same thing essentially all of this is breakouts or anticipation it's just different kind of opportunities or expansion of the age into different kind of it's like and I always tell people on
Speaker A
the side saying look uh coke diet coke zero coke orange coke lemon coke and if you go worldwide there are 70 different varieties of coke but at the end of the day it is just water, some flavor, some
Speaker A
caffeine and some uh coloring, right? And same way these setup ideas are variation but they appeal to different kind of market environment or they give you a different kind of an opportunity to make money. So for these I have a
Speaker A
scans like combination bullish and bearish which I run during the morning sessions. Then I have scans for anticipation which I run during the afternoon and I have a reversal bullish as a setup which is like a setup idea
Speaker A
where I look for something which is going to be a reversal. So these this is the essence of the trade factory. Trades can come from here trade can come from here and then I take those trade. So let's go and look at basically the idea
Speaker A
of EP9 million because that's like the main thing. Uh I'll start with EP and then I'll go into EB9 million because there's a lot of confusion. People don't understand or they have their own view about this. I just want to clarify
Speaker A
things. Okay. Any questions before I go? No, not yet. I think it's good. Okay.
Speaker A
Hey everyone, just want to jump in here real quick and let you know that this episode is brought to you by DFW, which is the platform I use every single day to find new trading ideas, monitor existing positions, identify new leading
Speaker A
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Speaker A
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Speaker A
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Speaker A
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Speaker A
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Speaker A
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Speaker A
below in the description or visit dv.com/mpodcast. That's dv.com/mpodcast. And with that, let's get back to the interview. So let's go back to this uh what I like to do use here, right? And so let's like kind of create a slide and
Speaker A
let let's try and do this uh this way, right? And so there is EP uh there is EP 9 million and then there is the delayed reaction EP right and basically and then I have some other variation which I don't want to get into because
Speaker A
the age might erode so we don't want to talk about it but but EP is a catalyst based trade and unneglected stock and by definition it is a gap.
Speaker A
So let me give you an example of an EP which I readed uh this year at the beginning of the year and that was uh let's go to this okay CRCL okay so here circle IPOed it went into a
Speaker A
long period of neglect nothing was happening and this is the day when there was a catalyst and from this catalyst which was a earnings as a catalyst and all and then the stock made a move up around 7
Speaker A
81% and it made that move in just 15 bars right I didn't rate circle itself I used the uh ETF which is CRCA to magnify my returns on this particular trade so CRCA which is like an so that made 70%
Speaker A
this made 206% so I use nowadays if there is an substitute I use that particular now in this particular Okay, there was a clearly identifiable catalyst which was earnings. Earnings was blowout. The stock mets of EP which is like it should be neglected. There
Speaker A
should be a massive earning acceleration or some catalyst and then the stock exploded in this particular case because I had identified EPS as a trade are identified pre-market right because they are based on gap they are based on catalyst. I knew this
Speaker A
pre-market that this is stock is gapping up and what is the catalyst right so this particular stock made a big like because I took circa I made like a lot more and so here I entered early first thing in the morning as an what is
Speaker A
called as an opening guarantee price OPG order and then subsequently like an it kept on going up kind of a thing so this is a kind of a trade where I research a stock pre-market I go through a certain
Speaker A
criterias which I have which is like it should have a massive catalyst acceleration in sales or acceleration in earnings or some theme or something like that but it's very clear before I enter this that this is a gap and there is a
Speaker A
catalyst and this is like okay fine this is like something which is uh I can identify the information is there to identify this particular thing and I can enter based on that that's EP that's why can I say something where there's a
Speaker A
clearly identified and it's a gap. Now EP9 million is a very different idea and in order to understand this so if anybody if you have any questions on this the way I do it is like there is this set of criterias which I have which
Speaker A
is magna 53 cap 10x 10 which is like a qualifying criteria uh which I use to qualify an idea. So in the morning if I get an idea I look at whether it has a massive acceleration or a massive
Speaker A
catalyst that is m g whether it is gapping up n whether it is neglected and neglect can be in various forms. It can be a price neglect. It can be analyst neglect. It can be a earnings neglect fund neglect uh blah blah blah news
Speaker A
neglect and all and five is it should have five days plus kind of a short interest but this is not essential. This is good to have because it makes the move more explosive. And three is three plus analyst raising their price target.
Speaker A
And then capitalization below 10 billion and IPO below 10. If that is there that adds more to the explosiveness of this thing. When I go through this and I research and nowadays research has become very easy because I use Gemini, I
Speaker A
use Gro or one of the AI kind of a tools. So I try and figure out for every EP which I buy I figure out what is likely move it it is going to make. So when I looked at this I said like based
Speaker A
on the all the information which is in front of me this is going to make 50 to 100% more right and that is based on years of experience studying things like this and all and that stock ended up making that kind of
Speaker A
a move uh in pretty fast right and this is what is a magnitude move is all about right and it made that move of like in a 70% in just like in a 14 15 days and this is what I call magnitude moves
Speaker A
which are like an they are not designed for duration if I kept holding this trade I would be like in a not be even making money on that right so this is just per magnitude now so this is uh the
Speaker A
thing with this kind of a catalyst based kind of a trade is the frequency with which this happens is very low you get one trade and after that the next trade might come in after like 1 month 2
Speaker A
months 3 months. In a year, you're likely to find only 3 to 10 trades like this.
Speaker A
Unfortunately, I can't run my life and my uh thing with three to 10 trades. Even though they are very explosive, I made good money on s uh this trade really like it was banger came out in the beginning of the year,
Speaker A
first month of like it was in January or something, right? And so it uh just like an hour in the beginning first quarter.
Speaker A
So it made like a good uh this thing but I cannot depend on this because the next trade comes in very infrequently. So frequency is an issue. So this is why I trade this if it happens like just
Speaker A
yesterday there was another EP which happened which was BFL uh butterfly network you see uh it had this catalyst AI mid journey and it like show showed up gapped up uh had some sort of a thematic catalyst or catalyst
Speaker A
theme AI which is a big theme nowadays right so but it doesn't happen frequently so how do you solve that problem of frequency so I created this set of idea called EP9 million and when people hear about EP9 million they are
Speaker A
like and they dismiss it and which is very good because I 100% agree with them that there is nothing in it and they should not pay attention to it and this is just stupidity because that's exactly what it is okay uh it's very good if
Speaker A
people don't understand ideas and they don't get excited with it because that's where the age is right and basically but here is my logic and thinking This idea started by reverse engineering when I looked at uh EPS and when I looked at
Speaker A
50% plus moves there are lot of stocks which are making this 50 100 200 300% move but you could not identify them by just EP or catalyst because this was not apparent.
Speaker A
So to me AP 9 million is a scanbased setup while APA is a news-based setup while this is scan based and most of the time non-gap setup and I'll show you an example and you'll understand much better. Right now here
Speaker A
is what trade which I did couple of months ago or a couple of weeks ago sweet green.
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right now this talk on this particular day is there was no news uh even if I had seen the news it was not gapping up there was no reason for me to get even look at it pre-market or things like
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that because it wasn't even gapping up but this stock traded around 10 million shares that is when I went started researching it and I found out that there is they have a new product new rap new CEO and as a result of that like on
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social media and all people are growing crazy about this thing. So I bought it on that day based on this thing and this thing based on that information I thought it will make like a 30 40% move and uh the trade it ended up making that
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in seven bars. Another trade which I did which is again example of EP9 million which I would have never found using my framework of EP was this NFS couple of weeks ago like again this was gapping up like not even like a 1% or 2%. So it's
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not even something which I even noticed in pre-market. Even though I saw some news item about NFAS, it wasn't gapping up 5 10% for me to get excited. Then I saw it here in my scan. Then I started
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researching. They had a new product, right? I said like okay researched that new product has something to do with like AI and the data centers and things like that. So I said like this makes sense and now you may this trade this
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stock went up 88%. in some 10 bars. I would have never found this trade using the EP logic but my different set of idea finds this trade and that is exactly what so as a result what I would
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find 3 to 10 opportunities I am able to find 300 to 500 opportunity most of the time it's my limitation in terms of capital or like you know how many ideas can I take in a day kind of a thing uh
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which limits the number of ideas which I can get it through so let's see the logic of EP9 million which is like derived from uh doing some back uh like going through hundreds of examples of stock which made big moves like this NFS
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kind of a thing. Uh currently in the US market there are uh uh so say how many stocks are trading in the US market? There are 6,500 stocks trading in the US market. Okay, there are 6,000 ATFs which are trading in the US
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approximately. I just rounded up, right? And there are around say around 400. So let's round it up to 500 ADRs which are trading in the US market. So added together you're looking at total of around 13,000 stocks or ETFs or ADR
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which are trading in the market on any given day. Right? out of these 13,000 which are trading uh when I look for the my scan condition which is looking for stock which have traded volume of more than 9 million
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shares on any given day you get only around 200 to 250 or that is like out of this 1300 2% of the stocks and most of the days it's not even 250 it's less than 250 so less than 2% % of the stocks trade
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this kind of a volume. Now okay there are stocks which trade that kind of a volume every day but NFS never trades that kind of or what I'm saying is that these are the stocks which for whatever reason on that day traded in terms of
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total volume traded in the top 2% of all the stocks trading in that particular or ETF trading in that thing. So I want to know if a stock is trading that much why is it doing that there must be some
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reason I don't know right there must be like an there is always something there or like there must be a thing and then all that I do is then I investigate and if I find a good enough reason I go into
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that particular trade and it finds you so many trades which make 20% 40% 50% sometimes 300% move which you would ever find by using this framework.
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So what it does is it expands your age into like an and then the theory of age rotation and things like that comes into place. So this is able to find things which I would never find using like I will give another
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example and I have hundreds of example because this happens so frequently and I don't even depend on this nowadays. If it comes in, good. If it doesn't come in, I'm not worried. If I don't trade a EP ever again in my life, I'm perfectly
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okay. There is no problem. There is still so much opportunity in the market. Right? On that day, a couple of weeks ago, I saw all these stocks having EP9 million, right? And a Dal is showing up in my scan, right? And that day, all
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these airlines were showing up. So, there was information here, right? and a DAL UL all of them are trading they don't trade that kind of a volume right and then they are trading in the 2% all that I
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did is like and I bought every single airline stock which was meeting my criteria that day I bought like AL ul because I just wanted was not sure which one uh love right all of the love didn't had EP 9 million it had like almost like
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you know 7.9 million it missed by that all of them so it was very clear and I have seen this multiple times when a sector is about to start a move or a new theme is about to show up uh it shows up
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with volume and the other question one has to ask is if something is attracting this kind of a volume who's buying it because most people don't even pay attention but this is institutional footprint right this is very clear on
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that day institutions were getting into these airlines and so like if you see JetBlue every one of them was having um this EP9 million and I just like I ran my scan I saw them yeah and all of them
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went on and made 20% in three to five days and that's how this EP9 million as an idea so there is a variation which I created of EP9 million now because lot of time by the time I research and identify
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sometimes they have ran up too much or sometimes there is a stock which is a a catalyst but it gaps up too much and I don't want to chase gaps like and I I did that in early in my career when I
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was an idiot or when I didn't had enough information or I didn't understand so I was taking gaps of 30 40%. I don't want to chase gaps now. Right? So if there is something which has a EP and it gaps up
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too much, I just like wait for it to set up as a DP. Here this stock gaps up and it gaps up like some 53%. I'm not going to chase a 53% gap. I'm done chasing that. At some stage I used to chase these things.
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I waited and then this is showing up in my uh scan EP9 million also. I know what is the catalyst. I know there is a genuine catalyst and I waited and I entered on this day and then the stock
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still made 87%. And I would have got stopped out if I had bought on this day, right? Which is what happened to many people. Or there is another stock which is a very good trade and I could do it
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with size because it was institutional quality stock which I did which is a DAP. Here GLW comes out with earnings.
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Earnings is blowout right and it gaps up. Uh and then I looked at like it showed up in my EP9 million scan. I looked at the volume. volume was one of the uh two years three year high volume
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and things like it's a institutional quality stock owned by thousands of mutual fund and all so and then it had this kind of a thing so this is where like I was so for a D which is just a
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variation of that EP 9 million I wait for some sort of a orderly pullback I wait for some sort of a thing like this so this is where I was like and I put it in a watch list next
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day morning when it started breaking out I was there within like the first five minutes as soon as it started breaking out because I had done research I knew this I'm going to buy and I had like and
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don't even ask how much size I had uh because the stop was so close right because you're you literally like sitting there like a hawk watching this and this is uh you get in the first 1% 2% of a move you just like loaded and
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then the stock made a move of around 43% in 10 days or 15 days or 18 cars right basically so this is the framework for EP9 million and D which is basically I'm sc looking at the non- gap or the things
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which I could not find EP and there are more these kind of opportunities in the market in my uh studies and in reality than this opportunities so this has become my primary setup and this Basic D is just a variation of that or
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for a D what I look for is something which did EP9 million in last one month and then I wait for a better entry very low risk entry on it like just to give you an example from yesterday uh this
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octa which had a here okay this is where like yesterday is when I bought it like because it was in my watch list. I was watching it after a pullback and again this was like EP9 million. So I can qualify it and do
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things uh like this. Right? So that is the logic behind this particular setup idea which is to focus on stocks which trade in the top 2% volume on that particular day and find out why what is the reason and especially if they're are
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non- gap kind of a thing and then use that information to make a trade and then go into it. So that's the thing basically right and so uh even though people say oh there there's no magic is you're just quick scanning for yeah okay
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I want people to be continue to believe that way because the less people understand the setup will continue to work right so that's the thing which is uh on EP9 million and uh this thing so let's go back to our trade factory and
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see so this is so this is to find home runs and mini home runs and I have some variation of these which I don't want to talk about because uh we don't want to give out all the hes right and basically
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now on this side it is a very different thing this is just a pattern based and everything here is catalyst based so I researched on that day what was the catalyst for sweet green or I researched what was the catalyst for NFAS or uh
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anything which shows up there I'm going to go and research and if there is a valid reason and that goes back to the original first slide which I showed you always find a reason for a trade and when I find a reason like on that day
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when those airlines there was an apparent reason right the Iran thing was getting sorted or there was a rumor of Iran getting sorted so you always when you look when that volume happens I'm always looking at what is the reason and
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if there is a good enough reason then I go into it and many times it allows you to do a large size that's the advantage of doing this and then singles is just a pattern based trade uh something shows
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up and it's a very good like in a lowrisk entry point or something which is like in a this This is a brainless activity. You just need to learn the pattern and do this day in and day out.
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I'll show you an example of this also as uh something which is called a momentum burst which is 3 to 5 days move in which stocks make 8 to 20% if they're lower price they'll make even 40 50% move. uh
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is like very simple kind of a trading this is so here you look at this particular thing right and here so on this particular day um I run anticipation scan also which is looking for this kind of patterns so this was
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like showing up like this and next day it breaks out like this I don't even know what this company mean I do know what this company does but just a continuation momentum burst that there is a momentum the first like but I do
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have a qualifier uh everything has a qualifier and context so for this particular setup which is what we call as a momentum burst my qualifiers are the if I'm going to be buying this as a continuation setup which this was the
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first leg should be 15% plus right the first leg should be linear orderly uh the pullback or the consolidation should be less than 10 days uh ideally between 3 to 7 days works test. So in this particular case this was a six day
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consolidation and during the consolidation you should see series of tight bars which is like three tight bars or two tight bars at least minimum two three is better and sometimes four and then the stock should break out and
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then volume and it should close near high. Now these are trades which are just go up for 3 to 5 days. So in this kind of a trade I buy it on this day I sell it by third or fourth day 80% I'll
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sell I'll just keep a runner 20% move my stop to like and just like you know here and in case it makes more it's okay if it doesn't I am fine right and I made my money and this might look like a small
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uh move to people but like in 3 days the stock made 18%. So it still moves your account right and 18% in 4 days if I can do this 100 times in a year 300 times hey like and I don't need to find one long move
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right let others chase long so this is an example of this this is also an example of what is called as continuation setup or thing uh which is like anticipation setup so I scan for this and then I look for this. So if I
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find something like this, I'll put it either in a watch list or I enter this uh on at around mark before market close. I do this work at around 3:00 and I enter this at around 350. So that's an
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anticipation setup. Now uh let's look at an example of a reversal bullish right and I think an no might be an example here.
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So uh this is like an this is what is reversal bullish kind of a thing. Uh so I have a scan which looks for reversal bullish. So on this particular day if you see it showed up in my scan these
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are all scan based right and there is not much of a brain involved just a qualifier. So uh this showed up in a scan on that day. It's reversal bullish setup right and I which is just an exhaustion. So there was a selling and
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selling exhausted so it closed near high right and it's an exhaustion setup I call it like and minor exhaustion there can be major exhaustion minor exhaustion in the context of where this stock is it has some catalyst and all this was a
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pullback and then so you buy this just before the close I run this scan at around 3:00 3:30 and then whatever shows up I buy and this is what happened next day right stocks make 11% in one day
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just what is my risk hardly anything because I bought it at 358 put a stop at half of this day and next day it just gaps uh it just goes and makes 13 14%.
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you sell them in two or three in fact I sold 80% on that day because 13% more there is no way I'm going to let it like and go like that right and that's way beyond what I was expecting on that kind
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of a trade and that's the end of the uh thing these are just pattern based uh singles you move your account half a percent 1% but thousands of trades add up kind of a thing basically right so is that typical for your um sorry to
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jump in is it typical to put your yeah sorry is it typical to place your stop at the the half day point that's your typical thing for anticipation reversal bullish setup uh for anticipation I might have a slightly uh like an stop might be like
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an essay but the anticipation setup which I focus on are they are like up or down less than 1% and most of the one which I select are like even up or down less than 4%. So my stop is around 1%.
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So even [clears throat] though the stock stop stock is not so if they just like you know explode sometimes if it is a high price stock and I have had cases where the stock is priced at $300 and it
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is up or down 20 cents and then I buy it and put a $1 stock and next day it goes up $18 $19. So it's just uh very short-term uh free money kind of a trade, right?
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basically and I have reversal which I'll show you later [clears throat] of these kind of things.
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Yep. Yep. So for but for the reversal bullish where it's a little bit more of a wash out there you typically do like some setup. So there should has there has to be some sort of a wash out. There
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has to be some sort of a uh selling cascade two or three day selling cascade and then there is a reversal bar. that reversal bar in Noacur NVCR looked very clear and all sometimes like and it is uh I can show
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you another example Costco and this is the beauty of these kind of trades right and basically that uh this trade which I did uh on this particular day was you know when you look at it at this stage
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it looks like this was a failed trade or like it didn't even make money kind of a thing but uh this is what I saw Right? This was the reversal bullish uh on that particular day because this is
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what I scan for. So I entered just before close 358. Now my stop was very close. Right. And I was just like going with like uh this is a,000 uh this is $860 kind of a stop and then what
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happened is next day it started going up right from the word go and it went up 11 or 12 before.
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I had already moved my stop because it went like you take that kind of a trade last night and you get that first thing in the morning just and then it faded.
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Yeah, didn't work out like if you look at in retrospect but still made money.
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So yeah, it means it's all really pattern based. There's no real uh this thing but I there is a background to this. I don't do this on a random stock.
Speaker A
Okay, this is done only on institutional quality stock. This is not on a random stock. It is only on a institutional quality stock. Can you see here there's a reversal bullish. This is the scan signal if it is uh so here you see and
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this one just like an event went and exploded. But it only works on a institutional quality stock because institutional quality stocks have buyers at uh support levels or at like these kind of uh things, right? So I'd only
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trade it on uh select stocks which have a certain characteristic in terms of institutional quality or uh I scan for stocks as reversal bullish only on stocks which have thousand plus mutual fund owning there.
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Okay. So not on any random stock. If you try it on random stock you're going to get killed. it only works on these in I if you study that on an institutional quality stock uh it happens all the time
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right and it just uh that's the way the market operates if uh something uh on institutional quality pulls back uh there are buyers so that's reversal bullish as far as I'm concerned so so this is the totality of the trade
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factory out of this this is the focus in the morning because the breakout kind of trades show up in the morning.
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Anticipation I do this work at 3:00, 3:30 and then buy them just before the close. I don't buy them next day. Okay?
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Cuz uh again this is based on what I told you. I'm always asking who is going to be buying, right? Whom am I going to sell to? So I have studied these uh newsletter writers and most of the
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newsletter writers what are they doing? They're looking at stocks with momentum and uh they are looking for these tight areas and then they're telling people buy when it goes up this is the buy point they draw a line or something like
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that or they will uh so I track some I have studied some thousand newsletters right of the like this out of them 300 to 400 are exog members running them so I know what they are going to do next
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day morning right uh they're going to buy that when it breaks out I just want to be buying before they buy. Same thing on reversal bullish. They do this work in the night and they identify this and they say, "Oh, this is like an uh dogee
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or some thing like that and reversal and they buy it next day." So all that you're doing is buying before they buying. It's always buy before people can find out. Right?
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That's what is an age. Age is just like a three ways to make money in the market. either be first or be smart or cheat. Uh when you buy at 358, you are first, you are also smart and you're
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also cheating compared to people who do it in the likes. So, so that's like this uh totality of this trade factory in one slide which explains what is the daily process or where the trades come from, right? Some
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trades come in the morning, some trade come in in the afternoon and this anticipation reversal bullish comes in uh clear near the close.
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So there is a time processing in terms of I don't work after uh 4:00. I have stopped working after 4:00. I just like I work from morning till 4:00. After 4:00 I do my personal things. So this process which is called NT MT which is
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night time is right time to find EP which is to go through stocks which are gapped up which are catalyst and all. I don't do it in the night. I do all of this in the morning combination of this.
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So in the morning I'll start with what is gapping up pre-market scan look at this is where you find EP uh like in the morning right and in the morning I also do other things which is to create a
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situational awareness to create a watch list of D stocks which is delayed reaction EP watch list I create in the morning review 20% 50% study and identify an EP so that what happens in the morning if there is something which
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is showing up then I'll do a OPG entry or I will just do a stop adjustment uh on the things which I bought last night uh anticipation reversal bullish and things like that. Now 9:30 to 10:30 is where most of my trades are found and
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most of them are in fact found by 10:00 because I'm a breakout trader. So I run EP9 million momentum bus scan and EP9 million will start showing you 20 30 candidates in the morning. And the one which show up are the one which most of
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the time went go on to make a bigger moves also. So immediately as I show I will research I will see find out and then keep on entry enter trade as they show up adjust stop and exit trades
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which you are carrying from yesterday or 3 days ago or 4 days. So it's a loop it's a cycle right and basically so then I 10:30 uh like I stopped like I run I just like a move away physically from my trading
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this thing because I have seen that when I sit there when you sit at the computer and when you're running scan even if there are no opportunities if you make a monkey sit in front of a keyboard he's
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going to press buttons right so I end up taking unnecess neessary trades are like in a you know the momentum or the bulk of buying comes in in the first 1 hour after that buying slows so you buy a
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breakout it doesn't work the same way as what happens in the first hour or first 20 minutes so I just decided that the best way is to physically intervene in this thing uh I just go to the gym at
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11:00 okay so 11:00 is my gym session so I go to the gym 11 to 12 I work out I come eat lunch 1:30 I run again the same fat Same setup, same scan. If I find some other EP9 million momentum, waste
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continuation setup, I buy them. Enter trad stop exit trade. Then at 3:45 4:00 I again come back and just run the ants and reversal scan because that has to be done at that stage if you want to get a very good
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entry. Right? So I do my anticipation reversal scan at this stage. 3:30 around after 3:30 and then I wait till the last 2 minutes 358 is when I'm going to enter the trade if there is an anticipation or
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a reverse. I don't do this process. This is just what I used to do but like and I do this all in free market. Whatever I used to do in the night I do it and after 4:00 I do my other things. Okay.
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So this is a loop. The process repeats continuously through each trading day. All the stands are set up. Whatever I'm going to use for making analysis is set up. Uh everything is exactly the same every day. There is no change. This is
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like running a Macdonald franchise. Right. Uh then position sizing. It's a dynamic position sizing. It's not always fixed.
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based on like how close the stop I'm going to be getting then I'm going to determine uh if I can on I always come with the intention if there is a catalyst based and if I can answer the
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question if it has a clear catalyst how much it is going to run if I can increase the size right because if you can increase the size on a trade which was like a year you could have taken 20% and it to run 40% you would
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make 8% and if you can bump up the size same trade will make you 15 16%. So I'm looking for this. So uh then for stop-loss there is a universal stop-loss kind of a thinking which I use and which is if I'm buying a
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breakout or very early in the morning then I put a stop at low of the day.
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Okay. If I'm buying it later than half of the day and especially some I don't like buying breakouts in the later half of the day at all. But sometimes you end up buying because you are coming in fully invested or you had like a
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positions and then during the day you sold or you got stopped out and then there is capital and then you pay something. So in that case I'm going to look at half of the low of the day half
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of half of the day like and I have that uh made uh like in this uh thing itself right and so if you see here uh in TC 2000 and let's see like say something like an A I'm just taking an
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example from yesterday I don't know what stock so let's take octa let's say which is a bad example because it has a long tail but uh So here I have these things put in. What is the stop? Stop. This is
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a low of the bar. So if I was putting a stop, it 107 is the low of that day.
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Right? And stop half is finding out how much is the half of this thing. So stop halfop in this case will be 115.20.
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Correct? So this is all uh pre uh uh put into the system so that when I take a trade, I don't have to go and calculate.
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I can just quickly say okay this is 115.20 20 I'm going to put stop not exactly at 115 but near about that 115 or something I can put it so I can find my ideas or s trades very easily like
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that so that's as far as stops is concerned and I never move my stops down I always move my stops up never ever move the stops down always move them up right and there is just no the moment
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you make one exception and move your stops down game is over. Uh I don't use this previous support resist. This is like nowadays this AI fancy thing. I put in all these ideas and it just generated this for me. Okay, so it puts in support
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resistance. I don't really care about support resistance. I just put it at half of the day or low of the day. Okay, same formula every trade. Never eyeball it. It's the same thing for any trade.
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Either it is going to be low of the day or half of the day kind of a thing. uh for a order execution I'm looking for a limit order. If it is a must buy kind of a thing I need to get in then I'll use a
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market order and if it is something which is like pre-identified in the morning I did my research and I want to get in I will do an OPG. Sometimes when I do an OPG I get stopped out but if I
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am convinced about the setup then I go back into that particular thing later uh during the day after like and it got me stopped out or shaken out.
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Uh if a stock triggers and it meets my condition I'm going to take it. Uh there is no debate like and it doesn't take much of a time. This is all procedural memory. You see it you buy kind of a
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thing. If I miss a trade, okay, if I didn't get in early, I'm not going to chase it. There is no way I'm going to chase it. It is gone. It is gone. I want my stops to be for uh like between 5% to
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6% or less than 2.5% if I'm just going to be doing the just momentum ban. I'm not going to chase it. No matter how good the idea, I'm not going to chase, right? And I'm James Bond.
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Have you seen in a Bond movie Bond chasing girls or girl chase Bond? Right?
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So I don't chase. I'm going to wait. If I get lose, fine. There is always next trade, right? Stop loss set immediately on fill. So as soon as there is nothing which is mental stop, uh there is everything goes into the immediately and
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if a trade moves in my direction after I enter within like half an hour it goes like say four 5%, I'm going to always look to increase my stop. My first objective is to great my stop to break
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even or break even plus because then the trade is free right and sometimes I move my stop because it you enter and some some of these breakouts are very explosive they immediately go up 8 10% after entry you just I just move my stop
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because many times they just uh then end up giving up the gains also right away so stop loss immediately on film then profit taking again I have like any EP or EP 9 million if I'm going to be
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entering I still have this framework which is these trades are going to be either in duration term between 3 days to at best 20 days because I studied 100% 200% 300% moves and if they are going to be magnitude moves they can
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make that 200 300% move in just 3 days 5 days or 8 days or 10 days or 15 days so my thing is I always look at like an doing Now if I'm going to doing an EP 9
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million or a DP I always have a target in mind saying based on this like say when I got into love which was like uh one of the turnaround kind of a play the Southwest airline uh and I looked at it
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and it is a turnaround so I thought like the guaranteed move and this is 20%. And because turnaround tend to last for a longer period of time, it can keep on going. This can end up into a multi-
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week runner kind of a thing. Uh but I moved my stop on 20%. When it reached 20%, I really moved my stop to protect 20% and it so happened this whole Iran thing and all started and the thing
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collapsed. Right? So even though I had a profit which would have been higher, I just ended up making 10% uh 20% on that.
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Uh I always scale out right and I scale out trades. So if I buy a pure momentum burst like uh say something like this H A if I buy I'm going to be definitely selling it by third day or fourth day. Right? by third
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day I would sell 60 like in a 40% or 20% I'll move my stop like just not even half of this day because this is already a 5% kind of a move I'm not going to do I will move my stop just like in a
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one/ird of this move kind of a thing next day start going then I start moving I stop aggressively if I'm there in the office if I'm going to be walking out of the office I just trail and the trailing
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rule which I use is once it has gone this much right and this trade If let's assume that I didn't enter at the end of the day. I entered earlier but like once I have like what I expect 10 12% kind of
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a stop I'm going to like start trailing very aggressively or just sell 80% and keep a 20% in case it runs the trades all exited on third fourth or fifth day basic depending on how they uh run.
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Basically there is nothing which I'm going to hold beyond that. If there is something which runs and once I exited it runs it's okay. I am not worried about that. 3 to 5 days, right? That's the unit of moves. All these stocks move
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in 3 to 5 days. So that's as far as this is concerned. Uh the uh so profit taking sell into so everything is sell into strength. Uh don't I don't sell everything together at one time.
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I'll sell 20% of my position. to see sell another 20% sale another and sell another. So this is why uh what I do is uh I have uh bought one of those cheap pillar uh which you get on Amazon and I
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keep it on my trading desk uh to remind that to peel your position because I have seen many positions which are 20% profit if I didn't sell them they just end up giving up that gain. So I sell
Speaker A
80%, keep 20%, within that 20%, I'll sell another 40, 50%, keep small. Sometimes I have a very small runner which goes for 5 6 7 days. But nothing like that kind of a thing. If I'm taking EP 9 million or something, I always have
Speaker A
a target in mind 30 40%, if it makes I'm going to be more aggressive. The rule of my stops is that if something runs faster, I should move my stop more aggressively.
Speaker A
If something runs slower, I should move my stop slower. So if something starts running faster, I will go. And if I was trailing with 3%, I drop my trailing to 2%. If it starts even running much faster, I drop my trailing to half a
Speaker A
percent. Sometimes I drop my trailing to.5%, you get stopped out. But in the meanwhile, it can go. So the higher the speed of the move, u the lesser the drilling you use. That is the general principle which I use. Most of the time
Speaker A
I get stopped out on trails basically hard stops only no mental stops. Uh then I have also a rule which is like an if there is some certain percentage loss for a day or three trades in a row uh
Speaker A
which I bought breakout and they hit my stop loss. I just stop trading because I know something is wrong. And this is what happened couple of days ago. I had like an a Nvidia I had uh I think what
Speaker A
else I had like CR CL or something uh two or three trade I had B I think I three trades I had and all of them got hit first thing in the morning by 10:00 I said like there is something wrong in
Speaker A
the market I don't know my best option is to just like and I walk away and protect my capital and good that I did that because next day the whole market collapsed and everything all the open profit would have been wiped out. I just
Speaker A
have that rule. Uh I know because I keep track of situational awareness. So I was not expecting something like this. Three trades in a row doesn't work for me.
Speaker A
Means I have a problem. So that's and I don't mind closing. I can reopen position. I don't have this whole thing.
Speaker A
Oh, you keep on holding and all. No, just like an egg protect capital at any time. You can always find opportunity.
Speaker A
So everything is like same routine. So this is a muscle memory. I can do this in my sleep. I don't need to worry about like magna 53 cap 10 by 10. If I explain I'm saying this this this but when I
Speaker A
look at like I can do this in seconds right and if I had to calculate stop I know where to move. So all this is this uh the broker platform which I use is I have multiple brok brokers nowadays
Speaker A
because there there are some different kind of accounts I have personally. So I have Fidelity and Interactive Broker as the main brokers but I also have Schwab and some other brokers for some other accounts. Uh charting I exclusively use
Speaker A
TC2000 and market search for like uh the financial data. Uh news sites I use briefing.com uh Finn and nowadays I found that the best way to find news is to just like go into some AI platform and just put in
Speaker A
the ticker and I have some scripts written. So they just like can you go and find out from some sources which I said like can I find out on Twitter Reddit and this reliable news site WHJ this Bloomberg this this and then they
Speaker A
give me what is the news on this particular thing kind of a thing. So that's the goal is make execution mechanical every action predefined and repeated until it's a muscle. That's the idea basically.
Speaker A
A quick question before we move on pretty deep. Sorry. Um, going back to position sizing, how much of your account are you willing to commit to the home run type trades versus the single type trades or is there a difference?
Speaker A
Basically, you know, a single kind of a thing, I'll do 20 to 25% of my account, right? But if I'm doing an anticipation where I'm taking an overnight risk, then I'll reduce it to around 10%.
Speaker A
Uh, to account for sometime like it can go against you. So I cannot go like in a crazy kind of a thing and if I my situational awareness is like say look kind of it's like a really uh the market
Speaker A
is likely to run like a couple of weeks ago or couple of months ago when the T2 and 08 which is one of the things which I'm going to discuss later which I use which is what an indicator was below 20
Speaker A
I was expecting the market to explode. So that time I just went crazy because I knew even on a normal trade if I found I was just trying to get in because the idea is when the sun is shining
Speaker A
capture as much as possible. Now currently when we are talking currently when we are doing this particular thing my situational awareness is this is choppy market rangebound very very difficult market for breakout I'm not even 5 10% invested in this market
Speaker A
but even if I find a breakout I buy it just for like a testing out an idea uh but if the market is at times if the market is good I will even on a normal just single hit I will go 607 70% also
Speaker A
because it just quality of setup and your confidence in the market at that stage but for something like EP 9 million and EP I'm trying to get mean like for GLW I had like a really big position even for CRCL which I bought
Speaker A
through CRCA I had a big position even uh for some of the other institutional quality uh thing which like for Nvidia the day I got stopped out I had a position which was like in a huge position uh basically in terms terms of
Speaker A
unm margin on that day between the three positions which I had opened. So I want to put as much as possible on the institutional quality stock. I will not do a large position on non-institutional quality stocks especially stocks like uh
Speaker A
Google or like an Nvidia or Oracle which I traded multiple times in the last quarter. uh mean I don't want to even say because people start getting scared to write another signal but that's the game right so if you can't do size I
Speaker A
made a video also right and you must have seen where I said size matters right and that's really what it this game is once you have age right and obviously if you don't have age then it doesn't matter and plus situational
Speaker A
right obviously everything is situational awareness specific so this I can skip because I explained this Okay, go ahead. Whatever.
Speaker A
No, no, that's all good. I think it was a great summary. This is just uh what I explained to you like EP classic neglected nails game changing but doesn't happen. Uh this is what I really like and looking at the
Speaker A
volume is the footprints of institution. That's the hypothesis. Then you go and find why this stock is trading this kind of a volume. It's like trading in the top 2% volume. Most of the days it is not even 1.5% of the and sometimes you
Speaker A
get like they are trading in the top why are they trading that kind of volume then just to find is the catalyst worth finding filter for noise I don't go into these low price like there are a lot of
Speaker A
these low price stocks which will do that kind of a volume like if you see CRC or quarts or something which did like a huge volume or I research them always because uh if I can research a catalyst and I know the catalyst later
Speaker A
when they become higher priced and when they offer opportunities I can get into them but I'm not going to trade things which are $3 $5 sometimes I do just but the size uh doesn't really is big like I'm not going to buy 100,000 shares of a
Speaker A
$5 stock no never okay and then DP is something which is like let me get into a little bit into this D because this is another one of these things which I use a lot nowadays so DP is again I'm only
Speaker A
focused on D on a certain uh kind of stocks not on everything in general. So what I do is I just focus on two types of stock. One which is owned by thousand plus funds. This list I put from market
Speaker A
search. So these are stocks the which are owned by and on them I'm looking for a EP 9 million which has happened in the last one month.
Speaker A
So DP is essentially a setup on a institutional quality stock or a stock which has a genuine catalyst and which had after the earnings or say whatever the catalyst which happened or EP9 million happened. I'm looking for a
Speaker A
lowest risk entry point after a shakeout or a small pullback which happens within the 25 days of the catalyst. Octa is a classic example. It has a catalyst. uh it made a EP9 million and then it still has a valid catalyst and now this is a
Speaker A
what is a DAP? It was on my watch list like yesterday coming into yesterday I had uh this this is how it looked yesterday before this right and I so it was setting up probably for potential I had slow
Speaker A
those are the two stocks which I had on a D because again there is a catalyst and orderly pullback after that um and this particular stock while we are on it three times I entered this stock I have a rule on D that I because if I'm
Speaker A
convinced that there is a genuine catalyst I give it three tries but my stops are so close my entries are so good three times on this day it looked like it's breaking out I entered I got stopped out this day I entered I got
Speaker A
stopped out and third time I tried I think on this day and then are this it's just there there are some stocks which are just like that so if three times I try and it doesn't work then I just wait
Speaker A
for a confirmed breakout to buy and I just don't do any more harm to myself right I see Yeah. Question on snow actually here.
Speaker A
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Question on this. Can a can a chart get too tight because it was just tight for so long here at you know is it more prone to a shakeout in your experience. You kind of like you
Speaker A
said you kind of wait for the actual confirmation of the breakout in in that situation.
Speaker A
Uh when I see chart going sideways for too long especially beyond like the one which really have a going to work they break out in three to five days. I will show you example like TX broke out in 3
Speaker A
to 5 days. So, GLW 3 days and it broke out. So that what this tells me is there's no urgency on part of the institution on this particular stock or they are not convinced that this catalyst one earnings uh quarter is
Speaker A
sufficient for them to get involved in this particular thing. So there is a clue and uh I was very bullish initially I thought like this is good. I'm less bullish. uh sizing terms in terms of what I expect now
Speaker A
it's so so the one which break out look at this right GLW on earnings 3 days yep right uh TXN which is like another GP like 3 days 4 days it just goes right and there is urgency so this octa
Speaker A
uh there is the that I think do or something digital ocean or something also but there's nobody is really believes in this catalyst according to me right or they're waiting for the next quarter or something like that right
Speaker A
right makes sense yeah this is another stock which I tracked entered nothing happens entered again so I have these three rules look if you go on a date three times and nothing happens you just like and move on right
Speaker A
yep you're married so doesn't matter fiancé but not yet but yeah okay I okay I thought you married okay so let's go back and look at this so this is just a summary of what I discussed DP I'm looking and the
Speaker A
difference between P9 million and DP is DP trade is always from a watch list and it is like I only have three or four stocks which will meet my DP criteria which I'm walking watching like a hawk I
Speaker A
will put everything into my interactive broker I'll even create a market order or a limit order ready and I'm just watching if I see a live a sign of life I press it button. So sometimes I enter and I but then this is where you can do
Speaker A
size because you are like in a watching like on that GLW I could do the size which was like in a crazy size because I was just like in a watching as soon as entered stop was less than 1% right
Speaker A
and it just went after that free money so this is watch list based uh all the work which I do and now this also in terms of working on this I don't do anymore this the EP work in the night
Speaker A
which I used to do or in the morning I move this process to 3:00 because then it also allows me sometimes if everything is setting up so I just like enter in anticipation uh gives you a better entry and then you can add more
Speaker A
next day if it really breaks out if it doesn't you take a small cut and blame somebody and it's always better to blame Trump right So, so we went through this momentum burst is just 3 to five days. I within
Speaker A
momentum burst, I'm more focused on the higher price stocks. So, I'm not really looking at these lower price stocks 8 to 40% kind of thing. I focus more on 50 to 300 plus one of the rules which I done
Speaker A
uh uh uh especially since this year is I really don't even trade momentum worst which don't trade a million shares on an average right now because liquidity is becoming so important I need liquidity so I don't even trade an higher price
Speaker A
stock and if you look at the mathematics of higher price stocks mathematic uh returns are higher in terms of ours on higher price stock than on uh because you can like get stocks which are very close. I can get into a high price
Speaker A
stocks with just like 2% stop. So small moves can also pay off. So this is all based on structural tendency of market where the market moves in 3 to 5 days. I'm just looking at start of a swing. The signal is large
Speaker A
expansion bar. That's all there is to it. So this is all hitting singles looking one trade is not going to make your year but hundreds of trade make your year and in case something doesn't work out on the other side you still have continuous
Speaker A
set of money coming in. uh then for everything there is a criteria if I'm doing going to do uh or there is a classification of breakout because not all breakouts are should be traded same way after uh lot of uh years of
Speaker A
experience I know uh a breakout which is a continuation which is like where it had only less than 10 days or 3 to 7 days is a different quality from something which is a consolidation like we saw digital ocean and a digital ocean
Speaker A
kind of a thing if you just get a breakout And you get in very excited saying oh this is a long base and then it's going to most of the time when you buy a breakout on something which is having
Speaker A
more than 3 to four weeks of consolidation uh more longer consolidation of months and all unless there is a catalyst clear catalyst for the next leg you buy a breakout which looks perfect it will have a cup with
Speaker A
handle VCP pattern whatever pattern you draw on it and you buy it and invariably that thing is going to go squat and go back into the range.
Speaker A
So I have a qualifier for buying a consolidation record. I only buy a consolidation breakout if there is a catalyst and a volume surge. But while for a continuation setup, I don't need volume because the volume has come in in
Speaker A
the first leg. There is already aggressive W. So here the criter which is like the stock should not be up two days in a row linearity young narrow negative day consolidation quality high.
Speaker A
Here I have I say like and I always tell people like you if there is a consolidation breakout and if you just buy it because it is a consolidation breakout you're going to spend lot of time in hardbreak hotel because most
Speaker A
consolidation breakout don't follow through unless there is a catalyst or a volume. So then the qualifiers what I call qualifier for a consolidation setup I'm going to qualify using catalyst and volume and then bottom bounce I showed you like NV core and all I'm just
Speaker A
looking for some sort of one exhaustion I'm looking for whether the market itself is going down and there's a turn in market so because when the market turns you're not going to get continuation and consolidation setup you get these bottom bounds kind of a thing
Speaker A
let me show you an example of this uh when the market turned after uh the Google this was a bottom box right and it was like a stock was going down everything was going down on this day the spy also
Speaker A
turned a Google turned and every single stock mean you could have just like in a that day if you ran a scan you were feeling like you're Saudi shake in a haram kind of a thing right and every
Speaker A
stock was looking like this but this was a bottom bounce so this particular day this was the start of a swing EP 9 million But it was coming in from bottom. But I was perfectly okay buying it because the context was T2108
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was below 20 and the overall market itself was also going to be turning around. So this setup I only trade when the context is right for this particular and that day every single stock uh large stock look like that. You could have
Speaker A
bought any one of these stocks. Nvidia, AM I think Amazon, AMD uh bunch of them like all even the thing. So that is the context always like a uh always look for a context and a criteria what is the context for this particular
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stock. So then we structure short which is a short setup which I trade not such an important setup because you get enough in nowadays the I get so much opportunities in EP9 million that uh I don't even have money to do most of
Speaker A
the time some of the other things but this is a short weak structure short kind of a setup where I look for a stock which is very weak which sells off three days in a row and just has two or three
Speaker A
days of pause and then it starts selling off. So I have a criteras for that also.
Speaker A
This is all singles all like you know just pays the bill keeps the cash flow going creates cash flow for putting in larger size if you find some idea like GLW or CRCL or something and you need to
Speaker A
take a larger risk. Uh so this is but I'm not going to stop doing this because this is very good. It gives you practice. It keeps the register ringing right. I like my register to keep ringing.
Speaker A
What else is there after this? Yeah, reversal bullish. I talked about reversal bullish anticipation setups where I look for two tight bars or three tight bars decreasing volume net change less than 1% or something like that. And uh
Speaker A
uh this is a situational awareness. So every day morning first thing when I get up I'm asking and this is why I got these things done uh this kind of like anything are breakouts likely to work.
Speaker A
So if the breakouts are likely to work I keep this wooden thing on the right hand side. So if I put it on the right hand side I know to buy breakouts. If I put it on the left hand side that means just
Speaker A
tie your hand and sit on your hand. Okay. So are breakouts likely to work?
Speaker A
Yeah. Okay. So then you go early you try and find breakout as early you do large door sizing then there is market environment where like some breakouts are working so you have to be very selective trim size do lower size have a
Speaker A
lower profit expectation so I go in with a very low profit expectation I drop size I like and very very careful in terms of taking a breakout and when breakouts are failing I don't even trade right and basically so this is a
Speaker A
framework for situational awareness And the input for this comes in from 20% study which I do daily market monitor my own trading how how have the last two or three breakouts work what am I seeing uh in uh other breakouts so this is just a
Speaker A
framework but this is very important this is the key to success in breakout breakouts have a inherently very small edge right most of the time buying breakouts is a terrible business. You're not going to make money just blindly
Speaker A
buying breakouts every day, right? But there are times when it is a very good business where like every single breakout you buy like on that day when the T210 it was very low and the market itself turned and all everything you buy
Speaker A
worked right and it's like and I literally everything you could randomly throw a stone and buy any breakout and it worked. And then there are times like now people are getting frustrated and I told them I did a video on my site uh
Speaker A
last week warning them that saying look this is going to be a London weather you're going to get fog dark dy clouds don't go and uh wait but people don't have patience right they want to trade because they see setup and the other
Speaker A
thing is that when the market is when breakouts are failing and when things are not working. A good breakout is still going to look exactly same like a good breakout looks in this market condition. If the market is selective
Speaker A
currently and everything is not working, terrible things are happening, right? And you run a scan and you see a breakout like H, it is still going to look exactly like HIV, it is going to look perfectly fine, but the situation
Speaker A
is not going to allow that particular thing to work. There a lot of people are so frustrated. Some of the people bought like you know yesterday Marvel and then it sold off and some days ago they bought like and they're just
Speaker A
complaining. I keep telling them hey I like operate with situational awareness. That's your best strategy in life.
Speaker A
So this is as far as this is. So let's go and look at some examples before I take some questions from you and then we'll look at some examples.
Speaker A
Mhm. Whatever questions you have like you can ask. So these are just random examples of some of the trades which I did.
Speaker A
Yeah. Could you actually show your market monitor and kind of walk through how you look at it day-to-day and and what what things you're considering?
Speaker A
So here u this is just mean lot of these columns is bloatware right and initially I had only these two or three columns.
Speaker A
So now people say why don't you track this why don't you track this why don't you track so it's literally only thing which I look at is how many is it buying coming or selling coming into the market
Speaker A
right and basically here there's a bunch of buying or like let's look at when the turn happened on that particular day uh when there was a big buying came in right and buying came in and buying came in and buying came in so breakouts
Speaker A
worked buying came in buying came in everything was working at this time everything was melting up selling came in selling came in big selling came in 97 72 and then selling and now in the last couple of days again little bit of
Speaker A
a buying came in which is typical of a rangebound kind of a um action action right and basically uh so that's how uh this is like and basically now uh these ratios and all stock B members are added
Speaker A
I don't even pay attention to those ratios there is no value in those ratios according to me they're just a ratio of 5 days of this buying to selling kind of and 10 days so I don't But this is
Speaker A
important in general as a thumb rule when the primary indicator or the percentage of stock number of stocks of 25% in a quarter is green that means like you know more stocks are going up than going down. It's a good environment for
Speaker A
breakout trading but this particular thing is not the only thing which I'm going to use. In fact and I rely less and less on market monitor than another indicator which I have created which is again market only.
Speaker A
But uh while we are at it look at it like this. The T2108 is a very good indicator. It's an extremely good indicator. It is the percentage of stocks which are trading over their quotient moving average and it only
Speaker A
looks at NYC stock. It doesn't look at the other stock. So it's like an looks at. So here you see this this is why I was like and I screaming saying look the market is going to turn market is going to turn. When it goes
Speaker A
below 20 it stays below 20 for a very short period of time. Every time it goes below 20 if you bought socksel or if you bought TKQ you are going to make money because when the market gets so oversold
Speaker A
buying just comes in and this is exactly what happened. So this T210 I have to pay attention to. There is another indicator which I pay attention to because everywhere if you go on Twitter everywhere everybody is saying oh there
Speaker A
is a bubble there is a bubble there is a bubble right uh I know what a bubble is or what is the indicator which will tell you there is a bubble the one indicator which tells you there is a bubble is the
Speaker A
absolute number of stocks trading in the market if it increases by 800 to,000 in a year there is a bubble and you can go back and check this indicator when number of IPOs increase by 800 to,000 in a
Speaker A
then typically that is a bubble. So I I watch this I mean it doesn't move on a day-to-day basis but if you go back and look at this during the covid-19 time if you see 2023 or somewhere around that
Speaker A
time it jumped by around 1200 because those 1200 spaxs came into the market. Before that there are only 4,000 stocks trading in the market and then that's when the market corrected right and that's when all everybody got into
Speaker A
trading because they come in only at the bubble. So these are some of the things small nuances. Now this is converted into some sort of a uh green light red light kind of a thing.
Speaker A
If the green light is a buy card but it's not as simple as that uh because I also look at the context of the market and the context of the market which I look at is driven by this particular
Speaker A
thing 20% study. uh this is uh spy versus the number of stocks even common stocks which are up five day in a five days 20%.
Speaker A
So this is like looking at stocks if you go to the scan you'll see that it's looking at a stock which is priced above $5 uh no above $3 and which are up 20% in last 5 days. So this is like a
Speaker A
oscillator right? What I have seen is that when it goes to this extreme 200 and all not immediately next day selling comes in but invariably when it goes like this you get some pullback you know next 5 to
Speaker A
10 days. So it's like a warning signal telling you like this is why on the stock B side we were like in a very cautious I said like you know no matter what people say this time is different
Speaker A
it is never diff time is different because market is already made like some 20 30% move which is historical and this indicator is screaming it's 200 right and we are ready uh can look in case like there is selling and I had like
Speaker A
almost like you know put stops very aggressively and all and this is what happened now this indicator also needs to be interpreted in context when T2108 is low and when it goes above I don't really pay attention because I expect
Speaker A
that to happen because market was oversold so it's going to come in so I'm not going to sell at this first side but third time when it reaches this and especially about 100 and the good thing about this is like you can see it it's
Speaker A
here this is mean like you'll see this on the thing like every time it goes in a small period of time at 3 to 5 days after that there is either a minor dip or a major dip after that right the it
Speaker A
works the same way reverse way if it goes below 20 like on this particular day uh uh I was like in a bullish and I said I'm bullish and I even posted on the timeline on my site saying because
Speaker A
this is below 20 20 the number of stocks which are up or down was 17 so when it like reaches extreme low level they'll buy so this is like a mean reversion kind of a thing So this is one thing. So
Speaker A
this is another situational awareness and this is the main tool which I use nowadays like in a market monitor again.
Speaker A
Yes. But this is the main 20% plus study. This is something which uh you can only do this in the highest uh uh package of TC2000. You can't do it in a regular package. So you need the whatever earlier it was called platinum.
Speaker A
Uh now it is it is called some premium plus or whatever. Right? And so it's done. It charts the number of stocks which are up or down and this is just a combination of them. This is one thing.
Speaker A
In addition to this uh I have this framework in terms of thinking which I call it like uh T3A and T30A which is think 3 days ahead and think 30 days ahead.
Speaker A
So when the market is coming out of something like T2108 is extreme and all I'm not even worried about a market correction because I know for at least 30 days it is going to go up right that's not when you need to get worried
Speaker A
that even minor pullback is going to get so if this reading get higher I'm not really worried and all but once it cross that 30 level kind of 30 days kind of a thing and all then I said like an okay
Speaker A
never say never anything crazy can happen the market can go and make another move like this as somebody keeps saying you look can I can a marathon or run another marathon back to back in theory yes but in reality unlikely so it
Speaker A
will transition into a chop so I have been saying this for some time saying this market has transitioned into a chop so that's my T3A now thinking 30 days ahead this is going to be a period which is likely going to be like this or going
Speaker A
to be a period likely because that's what happens after a big move going back historically or this will be a period like this. So now if this is my thinking uh it is reflected in my trading. I was
Speaker A
very aggressive buying things here. I bought bunch of stocks 150% invested uh on this day when there were breakouts uh and they all like work for 3 to 5 days and then I am out of most of them. So
Speaker A
just a framework for thinking and decision making for situational awareness. what what goes into the T3 ahead the the three days ahead uh it's always determined by where we are in the phase of the market right and uh where you are like and I say this uh
Speaker A
there are lot of these small things like market is down three four days in a row right and you know that it's going to bounce back right and say you don't get people got very aggressive shorting on this day
Speaker A
uh it's like a No, you don't get aggressive. You want to get aggressive go on the first day or like you know something like that, right? So now after it went up 3 days uh I was and in fact I
Speaker A
can show you on my site I said like on this day uh in the morning when I do the morning meetings I said like look this is another day I will give it and I'm very cautious. I'm not really bullish
Speaker A
here because I think this move is happened 3 days. Most of these stocks already made 20 10 20% move in 3 to 5 days. They're not going to keep on going. So I'm very cautious and everybody is saying that you're a CC.
Speaker A
You're a You don't like no stocks keep going forever. I said like I'll rather be a than risk my money. So I reduce my exposure. I had a very little exposure and then it so if you start this at first I didn't had all
Speaker A
this knowledge or understanding of market when I started I wish I had right but more you do it you can see this is over this game is over this party is over right uh this is going to transition into mean I have seen this
Speaker A
for 26 years this is my not my first rodeo I know that this is likely to go into this kind of a thing yeah I'm ready in case it goes And I will put in money because I have set up a trade factory.
Speaker A
But I think you know this will transition into some job and death by thousand cut uh and invariably new traders enter the market because everything has been working and then everybody tells them you just put a stop at 10day moving average 20day you should
Speaker A
not trade for magnitude you should trade for duration. Everybody gets sold on duration. At this stage everybody was telling everybody and their cousin that you should be a duration trader right seen this for 26 years man this for 26
Speaker A
years so uh this is going to be job according to me obviously I'm willing to change my mind I can change my mind on a dime I just don't see how it will like transition into some uh unless there is
Speaker A
a time which goes sideways so I'm trading accordingly right I buy inventory big inventory I bought sold third day fourth Right.
Speaker A
Sitting in cash. Welcome the cash. Waiting for another opportunity. Right. Could we go? Um, did you have something else to show or uh Yeah, you can ask anything. I just wanted to show T2108 like and I see this
Speaker A
goes below 20 I'm telling you every time it goes below 20 if you just like and I start getting bullish and not getting bearish and not believe all the end of the world scenarios you'll make so much money. When this was coming out, I
Speaker A
bought Sockil, right? And because I was like just waiting on Sakil and then that Sockil made this crazy move, right? I bought TKQ when it started turning that day when the bread thing happened. This thing made a crazy move, right? I was
Speaker A
watching Kuru and I like and because the Koru was going crazy, right? And so like koru and that the thing where so if anybody like T2108 I always tell people right and if T2108 goes below 20 start getting bullish if it goes below
Speaker A
10 you should be extremely bullish and if at all it goes into single digit sell your wife kids donkey horses whatever it is and buy the market you're likely to make money guaranteed.
Speaker A
Great. Could we dive deeper into the glow trade because it seems like a little bit of a standout trade for you.
Speaker A
I'd love to also talk about the Yeah. GLW. Um and I'd love to Yeah.
Speaker A
Yep. And if you could talk about like point out your exits too. Yeah, that would be great.
Speaker A
Okay. So, what happened in this particular case is like and this stock was going sideways, right? And this is this is I I had looked at this stock every time EP9 million happens. I always look at it. So I had like and it looked
Speaker A
at it but it is not a very fastmoving stock or it is not something which is like gots me excited and all but on this day when the earnings came in right and there was also a news that they have a
Speaker A
meta or somebody has signed up with them. So I researched it on that day I looked at it and then I realized you look this is no more that corning company which I had seen sometime I had gone to upstate New York and I have seen
Speaker A
this past this factory and all this is not that same old glass company. it is actually getting a lot of business from this AI kind of a thing. So I looked at the earnings sales I looked at all the
Speaker A
things which were showing up there and I said like and this particular thing and if you see the earnings somewhere I should be having market search where are my things right I looked at all the things and I said okay uh this is
Speaker A
something which is likely to make a uh around 40% kind of a move because it was like it had a earnings accel sales and I I am a sucker for sales acceleration but like it's not kind of a company it's too large right
Speaker A
and so but for the kind of business it is 17 14 15% it was projecting it had like this uh it was growing hardly growing 14 15 and it had started acceleration and not only the acceleration in earnings but also they
Speaker A
were getting this orders and also I said okay uh based on this based on all the information which is in front of me this is likely to make around 40% more kind of a educated guess kind And then like and I bought it and I like
Speaker A
and when it started going around 40% and all I started tightening my stop I started tightening my stop and then on this day I had sold like 80% I was holding a runner and then this happened and I got stopped out.
Speaker A
So one of the things which I look for is like an typically on this kind of plays is the first range expansion to the downside after my entry. So this is the first range expansion that G told me
Speaker A
that there is no point in just sitting in this probably this is over and then then I tried again but here is the other thing also the catalyst have lifespan this catalyst again didn't work so that's another thing
Speaker A
did you take a partial uh the first few days of this as well or for no I didn't take a partial I was like very bullish because uh I was and that's why I put in a larger position even in
Speaker A
the case of the CR CL which I expected a 50% move when I looked at it I said at least 50% move is going to happen on this particular so when it started approaching that kind of and I was not playing with sir uh
Speaker A
mean after the first day's move I was expecting another 50%. So now I was playing with the CRCA not this one but I was tracking this for my targeting and I said like and look man this is like a
Speaker A
good right and this is reached my target so I sold 80% and I said like and 20% if it keeps going I'll keep it and I had a stop at like an here half of the day and then I got stopped out on remaining and
Speaker A
just lucky also like an after means there is no point in holding these moves are not mean all my trading is designed for this kind of moves. If I had to do something and hold it for 3 years, 6
Speaker A
years or 3 months or 6 months, I will completely redesign my trade factory and do a different way of doing this, right?
Speaker A
Is it? Excellent. Um, I'm sure you get this question all the time and people are probably asking it right now. Um, what what really separates just a normal gap from something that can be an APA? Um, again, I'm sure you get asked this all
Speaker A
the time, but it'd be just good to clear that up. uh you need to see something which is like a stares at you which tells you that hey there is a massive acceleration this is why the first thing
Speaker A
which I look for whenever there's a thing is ma which is massive it has to be something massive right and like something which is a gamecher something which is out of ordinary right and something either a massive theme or a
Speaker A
massive acceleration in sales uh earnings or massive order or something big which is like a CFO leaving the company or something which is big right and basically massive now here look at like this CRCL right there's a people had very low expect and this
Speaker A
works only if there is a low expectation right and basically uh people have high expectation then it doesn't really work very low expectation people had this is like IPOed after that it is like you know in the dustbin of the market and
Speaker A
then it comes and surprises the market then it happens like that Or there is a government policy change right and here MP uh this was like a stock which was like an many years ago it had made a
Speaker A
move it was in the dumpster of the market and then there is a catalyst was comes in and suddenly one day you see that government is taking a stake that was a big shock that was like and also
Speaker A
the volume told you that also right even in this particular case I didn't buy it on the first day I bought it as a D on this particular thing So uh it's the massive cat it's a gamechanging catalyst
Speaker A
something which is like let's look at like recent example which like people called it an EP and I mean people call everything an EP nowadays that is because they just like an this CBRL and I saw like everybody saying this is a EP
Speaker A
this is an EP this is an EP yeah means like I look at CBRL which is grant thing right and which is that thing I looked at its earnings and sales Yeah, big deal man. Like they have to
Speaker A
what? Like this is like minus 5% 3% 5%. It's like okay they might be turning around business but that's not how a turnaround looks. What does a turnaround looks like? I'll show you an example of a turnaround and everybody is scratching
Speaker A
each other's back and kissing their cousin and telling this is a turnaround. This is what a turnaround real turnaround looks like. Here there is a real turnaround right? company comes out and declares earnings says we are having 244% profitability and we are projecting
Speaker A
for next few quarters our sales growth is going to be 18 2021 for the sign of size and the abbercomian which is a very old company and before that it was doing nothing it was doing minus 7% 4% 1%. So
Speaker A
context was that okay this is like an acceleration right. So that was a massive turnaround and that's why the stock went and kept on going up. uh and there was I saw some of the things which Twitter people were asking you asked
Speaker A
them what question to ask and they said we want to trade duration moves right and if you want to trade a duration moves you want to find genuine turnaround because genuine turnarounds if a company does a genuine turn around
Speaker A
which is what happened in the case of Aberian pitch where like there are lot of factors right CEO had affair with some guy and uh wrong products and that preppy look Boston looks went out of fashion and things like that and then
Speaker A
they managed to turn around right now when they do that kind of a turnaround this is not going to be one quarter right it's going to last for because they fix something in their business so it's going to last or very recent
Speaker A
example if you want to see it here love okay uh which is southwest airline if you remember the history of Southwest Airlines Southwest Airlines in last two or three years had terrible problems one time their software froze they couldn't
Speaker A
like any run flights everything was a mess competition from all the other airlines you name and they had problems right and then they did something right and and you see now they're projecting sales growth of 1819 uh 440% profitability so
Speaker A
they really turned a corner in terms of getting things right obviously this happened because of the uh Iran if the Iran war would not have happened I'm sure this stock has made a real turnaround in business right and this is
Speaker A
this is why it is a turnaround now when there is a turnaround you pee if the company has done a genuine turnaround that is going to stick and it's going to last for a long period of time but you
Speaker A
have to understand and this is why I recommended a book and unfortunately I was just like you know responding to somebody and the moment I recommended that book there was a run on that book and the book is no more available but uh
Speaker A
there's a book called stock market blueprint right and it's a very old book it's like I think an 40 50 year old book but in that that person gives you a good framework to think what is likely to
Speaker A
make 500% move and turn around cyclical turnarounds are going to last for one or two there's a cyc like here is an example of a cyclical turner and in cyclical turnaround there is not going to be necessarily immediate earnings uh
Speaker A
going to reflect that but here if you see dowo chemicals right going down down down was in the dumpster at the beginning of the year this was the worst performing stock in S&P 500 right right and Then uh all kinds of
Speaker A
problem chemical industry has this problem. Chinese are getting their lunch this is that and all and then now there is a turnaround in this cyclical turnaround right and this is a cyclical turnaround. This is not it's like you
Speaker A
know the cycle has turned because of all these problem chemical industry shrank they reduce cost they did all this and now that turnaround has happened and this stock has made 91% more. So you need to have a framework for thinking
Speaker A
for anything which you do like that. So massive is relative what is massive for do is not massive for SNDK in a technology kind of a sector. Uh what is massive is going to be what you see in a
Speaker A
SNDK earning which is four digit or something like that right or move earnings which is very different uh than what you see in a retail. If there is a retail play, you don't expect turnaround is going to be 20% growth rate.
Speaker A
Excellent. Um, perfect. So, I I think that was most of the questions I had.
Speaker A
Did you have a few other examples that you wanted to run through? We've already covered um a lot, but I'm just going to run through some examples to that gives you visually a lot of like ideas to people, right? And this this is like a
Speaker A
momentum typical momentum burst, right? And this is just a pattern based kind of a thing. And then it makes like this 8 9% sometimes like in a koru I discussed koru already h this is like a example of
Speaker A
the kind of trade I always look for if something like this comes in I am just going to buy it I don't need anybody's permission to buy it right this is circa which I told you for the uh whenever
Speaker A
there is a triple ETF I find and there are like a this is what I look for in a continuation setup right tightness three tight days and then it coming out three or four days is tightness and then
Speaker A
sudden range expansion. So tightness is very important tight tight tight and that's what my mantra is again like this is a momentum burst first leg and continuation setup kind of a thing uh this is like an instead of trading AMD I
Speaker A
trade AMDL so if you see this hut now this is an example on this particular day there was some catalyst and I researched it I said like you know I am not going to chase it because I didn't
Speaker A
get and I didn't know even realize this catalyst is important right this is the other advantage of EP9 million but when I researched it I knew this catalyst is good so I was waiting and this is where I got in and I got u as a delayed
Speaker A
reaction so this is also example of a delayed reaction EPA uh this is power which is an IPO again AI theme earnings so earnings acceleration so here like an 8 made a move as a EP9 million so this and this
Speaker A
is like example of another like in a non-gap kind of a P9 million kind of a setup right sweet green which happened recently no cure which is just a reversal bullish kind of a setup this is something which I'm watching as a
Speaker A
delayed reaction EP now because there's this government takes stake and after that it is setting up so this can be like example of that best buy this is an example of a reversal bullish again you see this uh it's a institutional fund
Speaker A
kind of a things prints reversal bullish next You see, so again this is a pattern based kind of a trade. Lulu this is an example of a short where there's a clear catalyst and I waited and like you and
Speaker A
then started so highly on this is even if it is a low price stock I don't get into but if it shows up in 9 million I do a research so on that day when it showed up now when it breaks out I can
Speaker A
get into it as it comes into my price points and things like that. So that's what ul as I told you all the airlines were going up. This is low again this day in the morning. I didn't really realize
Speaker A
the catalyst and all earnings was there but like and then here it showed up on uh reversal bullish also. So reversal bullish 53% in 4 days right and again second this day like I didn't get in uh like I was I had a dental appointment
Speaker A
and I really wish I had didn't have that dental appointment. I missed 57% move because of that. Uh so octa these are just examples some of the example like here again I got into this uh he got shaken out right and it
Speaker A
stopped out enter again and then the stock made 45% move in couple of days so you get sometimes you just you get stopped out and then you find another point love I discuss love with you SNDK this is like an one of the best stock uh
Speaker A
but you're not going to get these kind of stocks every day right and is a so this is like a normal momentum burst normal momentum burst riot there are some stocks which continuously give you 30 40% in each swing so I just have
Speaker A
found a way to find those stocks and trade them continuously again this is the example of EP9 million where I only bought this because it should have been EP9 million I'm at 71% right basically Dale Lunar uh lunar again on the day of
Speaker A
uh rocket lab earnings. I said like this is uh this I first bought Rocket Lab and then I bought Lunar. It was showing up in the EP9 million scan.
Speaker A
Oh wait, this is again like multiple times traded. So yeah, National Lab just had AP9 million but it has EP9 million multiple times giving you ability to get in GLW. I discussed this this on this day I researched this. Okay. So they had
Speaker A
missed earnings. They said like their margins are under pressure and all. So I was waiting that look and if it gives me an entry, it never gave me a DAP entry just went straight. So when you look for
Speaker A
DP, sometimes you're going to mistrade because uh it just doesn't give you an opportunity. So that's for this is that that hyperlid this thing. I didn't know anything about it. Uh I researched this on this day and then EP9 million it
Speaker A
showed up. The gap was very minor. These are the kind of trade which are never going to show up in your EP scan because they are not going to meet that threshold of 10% gap and then look at
Speaker A
this and then again second time look at this. So yeah so there are a lot of like oracle I traded three times in this move first second time each time it was like an a million.
Speaker A
Great. No thank you so much uh Praep this has been fantastic. Thank you so much for sharing all your process and also the thinking behind the process and how to evolve as a trader. I think that's what's really important. Um and
Speaker A
you put out a tweet, I don't know if it was um uh today or in recent days about how to get lucky trading and like you know get get luck on your favor. Um would you mind kind of giving some
Speaker A
advice around that and maybe just advice for traders in general who are watching this who want to improve, learn these setups and evolve? Yeah.
Speaker A
Uh so there is a very uh he died a couple of years ago. So there's a psychologist called Albert Bandura and he is considered among the top four psychologist of all time in the world.
Speaker A
He was a professor of psychology in Stanford I think university and this guy studied human achievement and he has this theory of like what makes people successful and that's the most widely acceptable theory about human achievement or what makes people
Speaker A
successful and he says that there are two elements to people's success in life. One of them is the self-efficacy beliefs that is their own belief about their ability to perform a particular task or do something right and basically
Speaker A
but there is a second thing which is equally important and the second thing is a chance events which is something which can which is a fork or something which you didn't plan for which is not like something completely random thing and he gives his
Speaker A
own life example that he was a Canadian right and he came to us to do accounting He was in accounting class, second year or something. He was like in a second year of accounting class and his friend invited him to go to
Speaker A
bullying. So the friend had invited other people. So there was one girl he met there. He he got smitten by that girl and that girl was doing psychology.
Speaker A
So in order to spend more time with her, he changed his major from accounting to psychology and he went on to become the greatest psychologist of all time kind of a thing. So there are these chance events or lucky events uh which
Speaker A
so he went on to study luck and he came out this chance events or it's called a psychology it's a very well-known psychological like I have some background in psychology so I know this uh it's one of the seinal paper in
Speaker A
psychology which is like people's life change through some lucky event some random this thing right and some uh like And a person joins stock besides and he sees the setup and he takes that and he goes on to make 100
Speaker A
million that is like lucky event right and it's not like a planned thing kind of a thing. So then the question is how do we become lucky and in order to become lucky there is this theory called surface area of luck or the more
Speaker A
interaction you have random interaction the more the chance that you're going to get lucky. If you're going to be socializing and with only a set of people or a lot of people tell I see on Twitter people say oh just go and sit in
Speaker A
a cave and you'll become a successful trader for some one person it might happen but it is not the way you can you have to get lucky by talking interacting with lot of traders talking to as many traders like you and I just uh I will
Speaker A
give you an example of like really this is real life which has happened in the last couple of years DP which I discussed with is a setup is not my original idea. Okay. And this is completely how luck happens and how
Speaker A
serendipity or complete luck things happen. I was in Costco in the fruit aisle and one woman comes running and says are you stop me? I said yeah mean other people are looking this guy celebrity. She says can I take a selfie
Speaker A
with you? I said uh okay like and I was so embarrassed right because other every other other people are all looking at me who's this guy like who's celebrity and who's come to Costco she says I've been watching your video this and that and so
Speaker A
I started talking to her she said like I've been trying to do this for 3 years 4 years I'm not successful this is what blah blah blah so I said like okay you're local come to my office and we'll
Speaker A
talk so she came to the office and talked now she has two young kids and things like that and all so she can only trade during a time period and all. So I said like in a you have to find
Speaker A
something which will work for you and because she's local she just stays like few miles from my house. Multiple times she and her husband they both trade together now. Uh they came and met me and we had lot of discussions and things
Speaker A
like that and then we came to this conclusion saying that they can't really do this as a EP or something so they should look for watch list and operate from a watch list. They went and came back to me after 3 months and said hey
Speaker A
EJ we have created this process called delayed reaction EP. We go through in the night create a watch list watch like this we only have three stocks and we keep like very close stop and we made some 100% in last 3 months
Speaker A
and I like blown apart right and they gave me this whole idea now that became my setup now what is the probability that you go to buy bananas and you meet some random person who wants to drink selfie with you and it ends up into an
Speaker A
idea and those that couple have done very well this happened three years ago they are like their performance is one of the best I have seen like they have done like so good that if there's a next market wizard book I will definitely
Speaker A
recommend it then what is the probability of this is chance event right uh but if you have a surface area of lurka because I'm visible I have YouTube channel random person meets me and changes things so people should participate go to uh
Speaker A
talk to other traders like and I go and attend some I attended that conference in last I met all these most of these people who are in the market wizard book. I personally met them right and I saw could interact with them. So you
Speaker A
learn so much by personal interaction right and somebody has solution to your trading problem.
Speaker A
Yep. Excellent. Well Praep uh like I said uh it's always a pleasure talking with you and and learning from you. So thank you so much for for all you share both both here on Twitter on your site.
Speaker A
Uh we all appreciate it. Um so thank you so much for your time to everybody watching. I hope you guys uh enjoyed immensely. Leave a like down below if you did. Subscribe if you're new to the channel. And uh Praep, thanks again. And
Speaker A
and we'll be right back. Cheers. [music]
Topics:Episodic PivotPradeep Bondemomentum tradingcatalyst tradestrade setupssituational awarenessbreakout strategystock tradingmomentum burststrade factory











