Speaker A
Heat. [music] Uh-oh. Are we live? What is happening? I need to get this stream up. Connie has for sure locked us in. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, I suppose.
Analysis of SK Hynix's 16% drop after Nasdaq ADR debut and market insights on stock valuation and trading strategies.
Key Takeaways
- SK Hynix's stock price drop post-IPO does not necessarily indicate it is cheaper than competitors.
- Market capitalization and forward PE ratio are better indicators of company value than share price alone.
- Retail investors often misunderstand stock valuation by focusing on price per share.
- Semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix and Micron have cyclical characteristics affecting their market multiples.
- Educating oneself on valuation metrics and market dynamics is crucial for informed trading decisions.
Summary
- The video discusses SK Hynix's significant 16% drop following its Nasdaq ADR debut and compares its valuation to competitors like Micron and SanDisk.
- The host explains common misconceptions about stock price versus market capitalization and emphasizes the importance of metrics like forward PE ratio for valuation.
- There is a focus on retail investors' tendency to judge stocks by share price rather than overall company value.
- The video covers the cyclical nature of semiconductor stocks and debates whether SK Hynix should trade at a discount or market multiple.
- The host shares personal reactions to texts about SK Hynix's IPO and valuation, highlighting confusion around stock pricing.
- Viewers are encouraged to use resources like Finviz to analyze market cap and valuation metrics rather than just share price.
- The video includes general market commentary, trading strategies, and mentions of other stocks and sectors.
- The host thanks viewers for support and encourages engagement through likes, subscriptions, and notifications.
- The discussion touches on the forward-looking nature of markets and the importance of understanding company fundamentals.
- Overall, the video aims to educate viewers on stock valuation nuances and market behavior following IPO events.
Chapters
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Good evening. And if you're, uh, who knows. Whoa. Look at, look at what Connie did.
Speaker A
Oh my goodness. You guys seen this? Like, can you see what I'm seeing? You probably cannot. I'm looking at this. Is this the ticker sheet? What a rockstar.
Speaker A
I'm on view-only mode. This is pinned here. I can't believe it. I mean, that's pretty, that's pretty hot. So, anyways, Connie rocks and it's Monday today.
Speaker A
Is Q still bullish? I mean, it's not bearish yet. Not yet. Look at this. These guys, Nick, what is up? My G, hola ra. If I would have gone to, if I would have gone to Singapore, it legit would have
Speaker A
just been to hang out with you. That's it. It's all I know. I don't know anybody else that's in Singapore for sure.
Speaker A
But hopefully you got to hang out with the crew. My guys are in the house. Appreciate this.
Speaker A
Can I please take a look at this? I've never heard of this ticker. Maybe, maybe morning. Look at, look at this guys. Can we do so for sure? W Connie [clears throat] the pain.
Speaker A
Dude, you know what was it? Ryan. All right. Well, GG, Ryan, if he did do that.
Speaker A
Is this what you want to hear? I don't know. I couldn't tell you. You know what I'll say?
Speaker A
I think that it's a load of crap. [laughter] How's that? I think I definitely don't want to trade right now.
Speaker A
Very close, but you know, hard truth is we haven't really gone anywhere yet and yeah, there are some, there are some tickers, companies that I like that are, man, looking really good. My guy, appreciate you with the super
Speaker A
chat. He's going, he's reaching for extra credit with the multiple shots on goal. I got you.
Speaker A
But, uh, yeah, I'm aware there's a lot of stuff going on. So, first of all, appreciate everyone supporting. Oh my goodness, I forgot.
Speaker A
Can someone, can someone please send out... You know what I didn't do? I didn't post this.
Speaker A
Shoot. I didn't post this yet. That's my fault. Let me get that out. Whoops.
Speaker A
Shout out to you guys. So, as I do that, one thing I will say, thank you for supporting the show.
Speaker A
Definitely, thank you. Up on your gold shorts. Nice. If you're new here, welcome. First of all, like the stream. Click the little bell thing. I hear it's good for us. My guy in the house. Red line.
Speaker A
Now they're coming in. Appreciate it. Appreciate it. Look at that. Subscribe to the channel. If you like this kind of stuff, if you don't know what this kind of stuff is, well, we're going to try and figure out if we have
Speaker A
any money to make this week. That's what we're going to do. We're going to try and see if there's some money to be made in the market. So, if you like making money, give the show a like, subscribe,
Speaker A
whatever. That's about it. That's all I got. That's all I got. All right. Great show, everyone. We'll see you on the next one.
Speaker A
I kid. I kid. I kid. But this is where we're at. Listen, I saw some texts.
Speaker A
I have a question. My buddy sent me these texts of his friend texting him.
Speaker A
And if you, if you have ever been, if you ever got these kind of texts, I got a text from my buddy who will not be named.
Speaker A
Actually, I'm actually going to pull this up because it was, uh, unfathomable to me.
Speaker A
So, a buddy of mine texts me a screenshot of his buddy texting him about this SKH High IPO and he goes, "I bought a large amount of shares at the time.
Speaker A
It looks like H SKHYV shares. FYI, SKH Highix competes directly with Micron and Sandisk, Korean company. And here's the kicker.
Speaker A
And he goes, "It costs lower than Micron. Micron is four digits per share. SK Highex is dirt cheap." Is this a normal thing?
Speaker A
I was shocked to compare like the price of the stock. This is cheap or that's cheap.
Speaker A
And then I replied, I'm like, "What the actual f, homie?" [laughter] And I go, I put in, I just go off and I'm like, "SKHY 1.19 trillion, 22.93 forward or PE.
Speaker A
Micron 1.1 trillion, 6.4 forward PE, 22 PE currently. SanDisk 283 billion, 66 PE. Seagate 204 billion, 86 PE. Western Dig 200 billion at 34 price earnings is literally the most expensive fact. I don't know what he's talking about. Is
Speaker A
this a thing? It's got to be a thing. I'm sure, I'm positive it's a thing. So I, I just, I'm just concerned.
Speaker A
I'm not lying. I think it's normal. I, I, I legit think it's normal, guys. I think it's totally normal. And I'm like, hold on.
Speaker A
I think this is the thing, AMD. Yeah. Okay. So, I think that's how most retail is. They look at the price of stock and I'm like, "Guys, so by the way, this is the price of ES in the Korean one."
Speaker A
1 1 8 million one. I don't know what that is, but, uh, Andy giving face value a whole new meaning, my dude. Absolutely.
Speaker A
Okay. So, I, I honestly think it's normal. I think that our chat here is probably a little above average knowledge base. I'm going to give you guys a lot of credit. So, just so everybody knows and because I
Speaker A
don't think, um, that text was abnormal, I think people actually look at this and they think that like, oh, I want a cheaper price per share.
Speaker A
Just as an aside, if you guys ever want that kind of stuff, there is a free website. Just go to Finviz. But you want to look at market cap, total market cap. That is, uh, yeah, I think it is
Speaker A
normal. I think it's totally normal. And I don't think it's sad. I think that it's our job. I think it's our job to make it right. I don't think it's sad because you never get taught that in school.
Speaker A
You don't get taught any of this stuff in school. SK Highix forward PE is seven. Uh oh yeah, it did. I, I pulled the numbers yesterday. Sorry. So I didn't have it because yesterday they had a different ticker. Um today it's SKHY.
Speaker A
Micron forward PE is 6.4 before, but the current PE I think it's trailing 12 is 66 something on, um, Micron. [laughter] Rage. I don't know about this.
Speaker A
Yeah. So, because I think it's normal, but I think that and I'll just cap this off because there wasn't really much more to the conversation. It's a new stock.
Speaker A
It IPOed, it released like an IPO. This SKH Highinex, it is not cheaper than Micron just to be crystal clear. It's actually more expensive. And you measure cheap versus expensive. Cheap versus expensive.
Speaker A
Multiple ways. Bigger versus smaller. Multiple ways. First of all, those are two different things.
Speaker A
Big versus small is not dollars per share because I could have a million-dollar company and have a hundred shares available of this million-dollar company and those shares would all trade at, uh, what, a hundred thousand if I had 10
Speaker A
shares, $100,000 a share. If I had a hundred shares then it would be, I don't know, what, $10,000 per share, something like that. I probably messed up that math but whatever. If I had a million shares available of my
Speaker A
million-dollar company, they would be $1 per share. Whether I had $10 per share out in the ether at $100,000 each or a million shares out in the ether at $1 each, the company is still worth the same amount. And that is called the
Speaker A
market cap. That's big or small. Uh, expensive or cheap, typically something called price to earnings or forward price earnings, things like that. That is, uh, basically my revenue, how much the market is valuing the revenue that I generate.
Speaker A
Let's just call it that and there's, it's a multiple of my revenue but it is not decidedly the dollar per share. So anyways, enough of my rant. Ex is expensive, is it good, probably. Do you guys see Bur's comment on, uh, I
Speaker A
forgot who it was. We will not, we will not, he quote tweeted somebody and it was like we will not buy cyclicals at a market multiple calling them cheap or something like that. I was like, "Oh, wow." Right. So, normally there's these
Speaker A
these are these trade at a discount normally because it's quote unquote cyclical. At this point, I think it is at a market multiple.
Speaker A
So, we'll [clears throat] have to see. We will have to see. And now the debate begins. Is it cyclical or, or is it, um, or is it not exactly?
Speaker A
Exactly. But so the market is a forward-looking vehicle, right? So it's always two years ahead in time. And that's, that I think becomes the issue.
Speaker A
No question. But how many years forward? So if this is the top for the next two years, supply locked up, whatever. You know what's the two years after that?
Speaker A
Years three and four, that's about years three and four are what the market's going to move the stock on right now.
Speaker A
But net result somehow today was actually I believe I believe I heard it. I don't know if it's accurate.
Speaker A
Actually, no joke, I believe today was actually SK Heinex's worst day ever on day two of the debut. Like, that's wild. It reminds me It rem and I'm not saying anything, but it reminds me of like, do you guys remember Coinbase?
Speaker A
No, I'm just I'm just showing the thumbnail right now. Uh, Coinbase IPOed at like 400 something and it was like it was like the top of Bitcoin. I'm like, "Oh my goodness.
Speaker A
Oh my goodness." You guys want to see a chart? Coinbase. All right, we can find a chart.
Speaker A
Here you go. Yeah, Coinbase IPO way over here like this. $420. This is like May 2021, April 2021.
Speaker A
It reminded me of this June, May, April. It was that candle. Boom. Right there.
Speaker A
This guy. Coinbase IPOed. called the top. From then it goes from what is that 60 65K 65K to under 30 following Coinbase IPO and you're like whoa good job.
Speaker A
Anyways, no big deal. No big deal. So, let's get on with the show. So, what we're going to do here is do a little quick recap.
Speaker A
We're gonna we will get to your ticket request in a little bit, but um before we do, we got to know what's what's in store, right? You got to assess assess the battlefield, if you will, before you send your your soldiers out to war is
Speaker A
what we would say. So, [clears throat] what's what's driving the market, right? So, AI demand for sure still driving the market. I think um meta. Do you guys remember last week I believe it was meta? Uhhuh. I actually I think I have the uh
Speaker A
if I were to go in and and edit the Anyways, it doesn't matter. I'm not going to do it. But Meta last week it was like, "Oh, they have excess AI demand." And then over the weekend, hello.
Speaker A
What's this about? We're going to spend another 50 billion to build more yet. Wait a second. I thought they were sold out or they had not sold out. They had excess out of control. Um, we know like here's the flow. There's flows. So, SKHX
Speaker A
record drop hits Micron the broad AI theme. Some start to bounce, but we'll have to see, right?
Speaker A
Uh, [clears throat] and the question really is, well, you know, is there a wall that we have to get through? And and there is. There's a wall. It's pretty straightforward. TSMC meantime actually reports believe um June sales up 67.9%
Speaker A
year-over-year firm AI demand counter signal I you know there's not a question on whether or not there's currently demand that's not I don't believe that's what what the market's questioning right now the only thing that the market cares about is can
Speaker A
I make money on these stocks moving forward so it's about forecast um moving forward. And I didn't actually pick I didn't pull TSMC's forecast, but um but I think you can get it.
Speaker A
[clears throat] The other thing that's right in front of us is uh kind of big. So tomorrow we actually get CPI biggest market moving event from a macro perspective. Market loves this data point. It's not my favorite. It's the
Speaker A
most backwards looking data point that I have. But uh but the market absolutely reacts on it. So we got to be careful and I think a little bit of that is showing up right now. We got Wars yapping also
Speaker A
almost all week. He wasn't supposed to say anything today. Apparently he just released a quote. Um there's this thing uh it's down here. Wor's semiannual testimony. Uh what's this called?
Speaker A
Humphrey Hawkins. Humphrey Hawkins. This is called Humphrey Hawkins. You can look it up. But it's it's a backtoback. Uh he goes in front of the House tomorrow and then the Senate on Wednesday and they basically grill him on his policy and
Speaker A
all that kind of stuff. It happens twice a year. Uh it is it is not typically a market moving event, but it's it stalls the market just a little bit because people don't really know what he's going to say.
Speaker A
That said, what usually happens is that all the senators and all the representatives end up grilling them on whatever topics that they care about, you know, whether it's like feeding the homeless or that kind of stuff. I don't
Speaker A
know. Not super political dude, but um but the questions he's going to get very likely comedy, very likely comedy. Uh that's that's usually what happens. and it it ends up being a political testimony, not so much about monetary
Speaker A
policy or any of that kind of stuff. So, I wouldn't really worry that too much about that. I would I would be paused for tomorrow's number and I think I think that we will see that in the charts today. After tomorrow, we get PPI
Speaker A
on Wednesday. We get retail claims and things like that. But these two numbers probably going to be the biggest thing.
Speaker A
And then we start to get some actual earnings. So between all these things, you know, there's actually stuff. That's what I'm talking about. They're all yapping right now. They're all yapping all over the place. It's like they just
Speaker A
were on a blackout period or something. I don't know. I actually don't know. Um but the Fed is out to play. the governors are governors are yapping and all of a sudden there's a ton of commentary and it's mostly focused
Speaker A
around CPI which we will get tomorrow. Russell, I appreciate you the super chat. Uh do I have do I share the Tomley thesis?
Speaker A
We'll get to that. It's a good question. I did I I do and I did to an extent. Um what I will say is that coming into this year, Tomsley's thesis, let's just be crystal clear on this, ain't special.
Speaker A
Not special at all. It's like the most basic of basics, which I've been talking about for I don't know, better part of nine months. Uh this is our slide. We're actually not here.
Speaker A
We're more like over here. This is a four-year presidential cycle and this is like a near hundred years. So midterm year is this year.
Speaker A
Historically the worst year within a four-year cycle and the market does tend to trade on a four-year cycle. Now, you could probably put this into AI if you were to screen clip this and say, "How are we tracking
Speaker A
on this presidential cycle? Can you overlay the S&P 500 on top of this?" And I believe one of my one of my guys did that. It's it's it's tracking, but it's it's overly exaggerated. Meaning, like this first move kind of went up like
Speaker A
this, and then we're kind of like this right now. So, it's tracking. This first year went pretty hot. Do we actually get the the typical dip like this which started usually starts in like end of March, April, April um into summer. This is the summer
Speaker A
swoon we would call it, which is kind of like the defining factor of the midterm year versus every other year. So meaning if I were just to say okay if I take June to September time frame September is universally bad but um let's say June
Speaker A
June to September time frame here June to September time frame here and then June September time frame here. Do you guys notice the difference?
Speaker A
It's a big difference, right? The difference the difference is uh in all the other ones.
Speaker A
Let me get a different color change. We are up. We are up. We are big up.
Speaker A
And this is your one, two, three, and four of the four-ear cycle in the midyear in the midterm election year.
Speaker A
this summer the summer months not up. So, so far it is tracking so far. Uh does it mean it has to be a down year? No. Because also of the four-year cycle and here's what I've been saying for like nine months.
Speaker A
First of all, I've been saying this for like 9 months with a big caveat that no shot did I think that we were going to rip like this before we went back down.
Speaker A
I didn't have that in the cards. So, you know, we're already higher than I could have ever thought. But what I what I always said have been saying and what I usually say is that first of all, I
Speaker A
always say the eating season is the time to buy, which is like late September, late October, maybe even November.
Speaker A
That's that stands. But of the four-year cycle, the dip that you want to load the boat on is year two, midterm election year, eating season. So late October, I say eating season. Does that make sense to people? You know, eating season is like
Speaker A
uh what is it? It's like uh you know Halloween comes around, there's a bunch of candy and then immediately you go into Thanksgiving and whole families meeting up and there's all kinds of food everywhere and then you go into December
Speaker A
and you get like Christmas and you're like oh my god and then you get New Year's and and it kind of like trickles on to like I don't know uh Valentine's Day, St. Patrick's Day, Easter, that's the easing like the eating season
Speaker A
begins. um feasting [clears throat] season. Not so much in the summer. So, we're not fat in the summer, but that's that's why I call it that. It's just my kind of thing. Um but it's usually late October between late October, late November,
Speaker A
somewhere in there. Of all the dips that we get in a four-year cycle, this year's dip should be the dip to like really really sink your teeth into. So, you know, I've been waiting for that. Uh to me, we we blew
Speaker A
past all the highs. So, I'm like, ah, I was hoping to get a bigger dip, but the the thesis doesn't change. Uh and what Tom is talking about, again, he's not special. Let's just be crystal clear. He's using typical seasonality,
Speaker A
which by the way is based on a a hundredyear statistic that everybody and like not everybody that most professional traders know. Um, so myself and now you guys included that there's a dip and it is uh it is to be bought
Speaker A
specifically in the midterm election year, but not yet. Not yet. That is the thing. If you if if you uh do your allocations by calendar, I'll just say that. Um that said, you're never going to pick it exactly. This is what Tom Lee is talking
Speaker A
about. I'll just say there are like three times a year or so that you can buy that are usually good. One we already passed like February, March, something like that. You get a small March, April, sorry. get a little
Speaker A
allocation. Um, and then in the middle of the summer months, small allocation and then biggest allocation at that October, November time frame. Just spread it out couple times a year, three times a year, something like that. And honestly,
Speaker A
you'll be perfectly perfectly fine. So, anyways, that's what we got. So, CPI here, that's seasonal headwinds. We'll just call it that.
Speaker A
We have banks [clears throat] kicking off earning season and we got straight of horm shenanigans happening all at the same time. So we got like potential US charging I think it's fees now. Uh I didn't catch the latest headline but
Speaker A
it's a little wild. Um I'm looking at Oracle down 4% again. Who would have thought? I don't know. Um and the AI trade kind of losing a little bit of steam. So this is where we're at today. Really nothing. We got a handful
Speaker A
of speeches. I think we get the budget released, but because tomorrow is the biggest market moving event um between CPI and the kickoff of Wars' testimony, which I don't think that we're going to get anything new from Wars. He's really
Speaker A
good about holding holding his cards tight to his chest, but um I'm sure they will they will pushing him around push him around. I think it's like all day. I feel for the guy. Could you imagine having to be in front of Congress and
Speaker A
like the House and and the Senate for basically two days on end just getting like hammered by their political questions. Like dude, I don't envy that. No thank you. And then PPI on Wednesday. So after CPI and and uh through Wednesday morning, I
Speaker A
think we'll probably be in the clear and then we start to look forward to towards earnings. But PPI comes out early morning. So I would say best case scenario, we bottom out tomorrow and then we start to recover through the
Speaker A
rest of the week. But I don't know if that means that we close the week higher. We'll have to see. So that's the biggest that's the biggest tell after Wednesday morning. How how the market moves. I guess basically the
Speaker A
direction of the market after Wednesday morning. That's the one that's actually going to have legs.
Speaker A
Different way to say the same thing. Um and here we go. So earnings this week getting pretty hot, right? So tomorrow we kick it off. This is the official beginnings of earnings season for any OGs out there.
Speaker A
Earning season used to start with a little company named Alcoa. It's funny fun fact because they used to do it by alphabetical order and so AA was the first one. Um not so much anymore. Now it's done by groups which probably makes
Speaker A
a lot more sense and the financials are always up first. So these guys have already run quite a bit. Uh if they sell off I think generally speaking this looks good from a sector perspective. We got air test systems tomorrow.
Speaker A
So this is probably the two two two twofold. Fastenol under the radar stock. These two stocks are probably a big tell. Um fastenol is important in general for like home builders stuff like that, but air test systems is is
Speaker A
the first on deck. I didn't realize this. These guys, even if you don't care about this ticker, that's what's going on. We have CPI tomorrow in the morning.
Speaker A
I figured it out. Figured it out, guys. So, we have CPI and then right after we have PPI first thing in the morning before the open.
Speaker A
[sighs] [clears throat] CPI before the open. Then after the close, we have air test systems. So boom, boom, boom. This is a pretty heavy hitter. 24 to 36 24 hours. Air test systems, huge highf flyier test and measurement. I think that moves the
Speaker A
entire AI trade. As weird as that sounds, extremely small little micro cap small cap, not micro anymore. Uh if this thing doesn't increase their contracts after being up, I don't know, a thousand% this year, uh yeah, that's going to read through the rest of
Speaker A
the market. And if you don't know what air test system is, here's a here's a nice little chart for you.
Speaker A
I'll just pull this up. This is one of those picks and shovels kind of situations. We're talking about a stock that um let's see in April of 2025 was what is that $6.30 30 cents uh and in one year's time went up 2,000% to $125
Speaker A
or more. Almost $130 on about one, two, three, four earnings uh increasing their market cap essentially total addressable market. So, this is very much about their deals that they're, you know, pivot. They've pivoted the business. Yeah, it's down
Speaker A
quite a bit from the highs, but look at that. Is it really? I think put it in perspective. Zoom out. Look left. Um 66 down to 48 on this guy. But, you know, [clears throat] I mean, I guess the good thing is this
Speaker A
has come down quite a bit already. If it rips face, even though it's down 50%.
Speaker A
I think this thing is just it's just so high beta and because of the first one to go, however the market reads that, it's going to be a big one. Then and then we have ASML right behind it, which is
Speaker A
again, these are not normal things. ASML, another stock that's just had a huge run.
Speaker A
So, a little bit of nerves coming in here. So after one, two, three, four earnings a year, we're talking about a, you know, it doesn't feel like the AI trade has been it's it's doesn't feel like the AI trade's a year old.
Speaker A
Apparently, it's a year old. Um, yeah, up 250% in the last, call it year. Uh, yeah, I mean, some of these are high coming in hot. So ASML I don't think historically doesn't do that great but it's different
Speaker A
now. Oh my god. And then we have TSM right behind it. Like dude dude dude dude dude what's happening?
Speaker A
Yeah this is a big week. So a lot of a lot of fear, a lot of profit taking is what I'm seeing before the you know before the actual reports because these things have run significantly. Like if I just look
Speaker A
at ASML from Wow. If I just go from the last earnings report that was over here.
Speaker A
So this is their last earnings report. They went up 40%. Currently sitting at about 20% increase.
Speaker A
That's kind of wild. This is this is what they usually that's that's last earnings reaction.
Speaker A
They don't usually do that great on earnings. So again, what I'm talking about insta pop and fade.
Speaker A
Not a big mover on earnings. Look at this fade. Fade big pop, medium fade, and then bigger fade later.
Speaker A
Big fade. Like this. I'm not seeing a lot of uh good reactions here. Big fade.
Speaker A
Biggest fade. Yeah, this is not very inspiring, guys. one gap and go circa [laughter] January 2024.
Speaker A
So I think for those reasons we see what we see in the market. How's that?
Speaker A
Yeah. Yeah. But I don't but but I don't think the stocks themselves move. Um it's a lot of pull forward and that's I think that's the that's the question.
Speaker A
Even if they say that what they would need to say is like there's an entire I guess that's the question. What would they have to say? They'd have to say there's an entire new industry that's happening right now that we're capturing
Speaker A
that is decidedly the edge. That's what they're going to have to say. But I don't know. We're spetting a lot.
Speaker A
You know what? You know what they do say though? When you start guessing and things like that, you could get worried pretty I've been muted.
Speaker A
Who pushed the button? Who pushed the button? It's because I don't have this mic locked in.
Speaker A
I have this mic that has a button. I got to find the uh Oh, I found it.
Speaker A
It's on the ground. No, it was me. And while I was talking, I gave away the secret pick.
Speaker A
No, I kid. I have no idea what I said. All I know is that I was talking about speculating and that the best kind of speculation we call in the charts male astrology.
Speaker A
And that comes not from me but from our friend Miss Cleo which is not astronomy.
Speaker A
Astrology not to be confused with astronomy. Astronomy is science. Astrology is not. Connie absolutely gets a beer.
Speaker A
But for those of you in the know, this section, and for those of you not in the know, this section is for comedic relief. And we check in with our good friend Miss Cleo. And she gives us the
Speaker A
real astrology in the charts, which of course is the T in TA, which stands for tarot.
Speaker A
So without further ado, Miss Cleo. [music] All right, boys and girls. There you have it. I have not yet even glanced at these.
Speaker A
So this is the way it works. She gives us the prediction. [clears throat] The neighbor says she's real to him. I think Miss Cleo kind of I think she didn't do well last week. Pretty sure she fumbled the ball hardcore last week.
Speaker A
I think I don't know. I think um and I think I I I trumped Miss Trump is Anyways, I think I inverse Miss Cleo anyways. So, let's see what she has to say. Maybe she can redeem herself, but I don't know, you know. So, the way
Speaker A
it works here is that she gives us a uh what are we going to call this? I need to go into purple. A theme card for the week. You know, that is uh it's encouraging strength.
Speaker A
She's got Clifford. I've been uh shout out to anyone with with young children. Clifford the Big Red Dog is not uh he's still on YouTube if you ever want if you're ever curious, but he's still around. The boy the boy found him the
Speaker A
other day. Seems to like him. Uh and then we get a theme card for every day of the week down hither.
Speaker A
Let's see. So, Monday we get what is this? You know, I'll just say so this is today. This this feels appropriate so far. It looks like we're leaving our treasures behind us and we're walking away to hopefully greener pastures. I don't know. But but
Speaker A
it seems to me even the moon is a little uh sad. But the guy is clearly walking away, guys. He's clearly leaving uh his treasure behind.
Speaker A
So this maybe means stop loss. Stops are your friend. I don't know. And then the high priestess comes. I have no idea what she says.
Speaker A
I have no idea what she means. So they got the And then we got the king right behind him.
Speaker A
I guys, I have no idea. I got no read on zero. And then we got a what seems to look like a joker.
Speaker A
I don't know a page. He's a joker. Although he's only got one cup. We had one, two, three, four, five. We had a ton of cups before and now I only got one. And this dude is taunting me with a fish.
Speaker A
Yeah, I got nothing here, guys. I got absolutely nothing. I have no idea. Then is the emperor. So like um he doesn't look nice. This guy's got like demons on his throne. Is that what this is? What's up with this?
Speaker A
I honestly I don't like it. Honestly, it reads like what dude? Okay, so like where's the strength? Have strength because it's about to go down. Is that the is that what's what's going on? Because like I just left all my treasure behind.
Speaker A
I walked off the battlefield, if you will. And then the king and the queen approach and and then it's all about the jester who who might be me. I'm feeling like I get the royal treatment literally. They entertain me for a while maybe with the
Speaker A
jester and then and then this dude shows up with these demons on his throne. I'm not I'm not feeling it, guys. I don't know. Let's see. I I don't I don't want to All right. I'm just going to read
Speaker A
what she has to say because I don't I have no idea what's going on.
Speaker A
Um, theme card of strength is okay is not the greatest daily card to draw, but it has merit as a theme card when following a red week. Unfortunately, this isn't the case as last week kept us out of danger and
Speaker A
on the green side of the road. Okay, so expect frequent bouts of weakness and daily closes not far from the opening mark. Kind of what I'm feeling. A red inside week would not surprise.
Speaker A
That means sideways but closing towards the lows and uh I think that's what we're seeing right now. We'll see. So today, eight of cups. This serves as a transition card to market change in strategy. Oh.
Speaker A
Oh god. Uh and future routes taken. I'm pretty sure she's saying the flipping is here. Typically, this results in a red day, especially when following another minor arcana below it. Uh, I do not expect a trend day, but there may be
Speaker A
enough blood to bring out the perma bears. Oh, man. All right. Well, they were out last week in force. So, anyways, Tuesday is the High Priestess. The High Priestess brings more power than she lets on. She tells you to trust your gut and follow
Speaker A
with your hand. Okay, do what you feel. She is a green bias, especially when following a red day.
Speaker A
Trend is likely possible. You can chase it should it emerge. So, we get a turnaround Tuesday. Is that what is that what the cards are saying here? I don't really know. Uh, that was very cluji unpre imprecise. Wednesday, King of
Speaker A
Wands. One thing is for certain, we can expect h certain we can expect higher energy and impulsive price action continuation likely and trend is very possible. I mean if we just trend down I don't know what to say. Don't try to get
Speaker A
cute here. Mind the swings but don't go all in hoping for a trend. Wait for a pullback after a large move.
Speaker A
Okay. Thursday is the jester guy. Page page of cups. This day likely rides on pre-market news. A moderate gap open is likely. Unlike most pages, continuation is likely. We got trend trend trend.
Speaker A
Medium to strong trend is also I wonder if they're all in the same direction.
Speaker A
Friday is the emperor continuation again. Another trend. So we either I guess that's it. Do we trend down all week or is this the lows? Time will tell.
Speaker A
It's very possible this is we lock the high and we just go down all week.
Speaker A
It's possibly in the charts. Uh continuation is also likely we either close flat or ride a strong trend rarely anything in between. The play is simple.
Speaker A
Thursday trend brings higher chance of a trend on Friday. Chop Thursday brings chop. So this all sums up a big week of energy cards, which means big strides are possible. Remember to honor the suits for what they are. I don't know what
Speaker A
they are. So what are they? Cups are emotions. Wands are impulsive. Swords are ferocity and cunning.
Speaker A
Interesting. Well, you know, where did she go? There you have it. You know, I don't have much more to say about that.
Speaker A
That's all we got. What am I looking at here? What is this coin? Why do I have coin up here? You know, that's kind of a bummer.
Speaker A
We're kind of hoping for something a little bit better, but that's okay. Apple had a good day today. I'm getting set up here. Does Apple continue? That's the question.
Speaker A
All right, Connie, I need help here. I'm not sure I'm reading this right. Oh, there it is.
Speaker A
It's updating now. Okay, here we go. It's updating. I think I'm going to refresh it.
Speaker A
But [clears throat] you know what I need to do before we go there? Usually just before we actually go in here, this is my view. So typically SPY, typically 30-inut chart, SPY, Q's, DIA, IWM, I got oil down here.
Speaker A
So on the top on the top four, we have the major I don't know what that's there for. Um major indices.
Speaker A
We'll just clean this up a little bit. How's that? That's fine. That's probably better.
Speaker A
And just a quick little check it. Right. So, I'm looking at NFP data. Honestly, right now, uh what I could say is that Friday's close. Sh anybody was anybody here in the uh webinar last week? I think it was Thursday night.
Speaker A
We actually walked through this situation. Um I'd venture to say perfectly. I don't really want to say perfectly, but it was pretty damn exacting. Uh yeah. Yep.
Speaker A
Yep. Yep. Yep. All yeses. Yes. Appreciate you guys showing up. I got an 88%.
Speaker A
So, what do we say? What did we say? If this were to happen, if this were to happen, yes, we open above this NFP level here.
Speaker A
We're like sure even if we open above we very we for sure said this is your upside target.
Speaker A
But the question is what did we say was going to happen after that? Was it likely to continue? I think I even posted this and the answer was no. So the answer was no because in order to get
Speaker A
continuation I actually need to see a full day's trading above 754 and a half and there was no is there ads it shouldn't have ads shouldn't have like midstream ads uh but there was no full days trading that where you
Speaker A
couldn't have known I would have needed to see Monday open above of 755. So, we had to wait. We had to wait and see for Monday, which meant no expecting continuation. Sure enough, this is this is the this is the deal. And at this
Speaker A
point, we kind of know. So, I don't really care what Miss Cleo says, you guys, right? It it's we don't know that that's happening yet because if you listen very carefully to the webinar, replays are available, by the way.
Speaker A
The reason you know this opens above 755 which means that I go to 7 751 which means that I go up here right now even if this were to close over which it did.
Speaker A
It's the very next day. Flip that in reverse here. Where do we open today? Well, we open over 751.
Speaker A
I don't have a continuation day today, guys. I actually don't. I do not have a continuation day today. Not yet. It's not how this works because to get this full continuation, I need to have it open below 75124,
Speaker A
right? And if that happens, then yeah, we're and we can't we can't get over within the first few minutes, we're probably going to dump like 10 points that day.
Speaker A
That said, does that mean that we open here, do that tomorrow, and then that's the rest of the week?
Speaker A
That's possible. That's very possible. But if we open over 751 tomorrow, this is that red scenario. That's not happening. It's not happening. Um, and all the upside still still holds this setup right now. I'll just tell you right now for any of my credit spread
Speaker A
companions or the credit spread credit spread people selling stuff up here today. Probably your best trade if you wanted to do if you wanted to do like some kind of condor sell upside calls and sell downside puts and
Speaker A
create yourself a giant range to make money in probably your best play. In fact, you can do that very tight on Q's, right? So, here's QQQ. There's the range.
Speaker A
So, [clears throat] we open again. I don't actually have continuation. I don't So, between SPY and QQQ, I show zero continuation downside like I show anything can happen intraday. But after today, do I think does my system say
Speaker A
that we should actually extend? It actually doesn't. Um, it does not because again open above even if even if I close below here it's not a big deal.
Speaker A
[clears throat] If I if I open below 7-Eleven well that same day we're going to go to 707 and I have many many levels down here. This goes down to basically just under 700 which is right over here. We already
Speaker A
tagged that. So, um it's it's just as easy for us to say do a little something something like that today uh or throughout the rest of the week.
Speaker A
So, we got to be careful. Um no no trade here, no nothing. Uh this is very much sit on your hands. Uh, I think what I'm looking at after looking at the calendar, selling upside calls and probably downside puts is the the name
Speaker A
of the game right now. So, um, if you're a directional trader, I would say this is not going to be the week. Uh, this is more of a day trading setup, not a swing trading setup across the board.
Speaker A
Um, so anyways, that's where we are again. diamonds. Do I have a do I have a downside trigger? Absolutely not. Do I have a we're going to go sideways for a while? I absolutely do. Uh even IWM, who
Speaker A
is the redheaded stepchild of the market, also opening above, even if this closes deep below, I don't have anything. And even if it does continue down, I'm very near my first downside target, which has essentially hit anyways. Uh on IWM,
Speaker A
I need this kind of opening over 295. Over 295. That's gonna be great. Uh but there you have it. The dollar. We'll just check in. Bullish.
Speaker A
That's not That's not good for dollar denominated assets. That's not bullish rather. Um Biddy coming in hot.
Speaker A
Something's happening in the market. I don't know what it is. This one again not able to continue through, but 61 uh or so is your next downside target. We'll see.
Speaker A
All of this is like h we can go to support, but it's not actual continuation. Oil is ripping right now.
Speaker A
There's got to be some kind of headlines. The Trumpster is talking for sure. Uh so yeah this this leans more towards risk off for the day especially with what what we have in store from a news flow perspective a macro perspective we are
Speaker A
not continuing higher intraday can this get as wild as it wants to it sure can um but I don't want to assume that it's going to continue after today but today can go actually I'll tell Let's go. This an average daily range on
Speaker A
spy brings it all the way down. Oh man. All the way down to the to the 20-day simple 734 761 on the average weekly range up or average daily range upside. And the average weekly range is this entire box.
Speaker A
On average, SPY can move through this entire range up to seven. Is that 775?
Speaker A
775 nearly as low as 730. That's how much SPY has been moving. Chop chop. So, holy shamoly. There you have it.
Speaker A
[clears throat] Basically smack in the middle right now. We'll see how this goes. I don't have a good read. Uh I have a neutral read. I have a I have a good neutral read is what I have.
Speaker A
And I like that. So, I think you chill right now. So, with that said, let's go ahead and pick some of your Let's get some of your picks out.
Speaker A
Let's do this. I'm going to switch to a 30. I know I [clears throat] had some um Swatty had a couple requests, so we'll go a I remember is one. Um, falling knife decidedly. Decidedly falling knife.
Speaker A
The guy's not going to like me. Don't know what to tell you. Um, but let me show you. How's that? So, this is a is a consolidation area essentially from here to here. And what we do is you
Speaker A
kind of measure like where you want to know where the bears are, right? And so from uh again incept from peak high to extreme low on that consolidation literally I'm going to do this in red right here is that kind of
Speaker A
like golden pocket golden zone if you will for where the bears live. This is called a bearish retracement. Um and the absolute peak of that area right here is the golden pocket. And so literally right here that's that's peak bare zone and then
Speaker A
this rejection right there it was a short actually in this moment. We teach [clears throat] this stuff in the school but if you're not in the school then you wouldn't know. Um and so from here no it's it's it's uh it's it's not going
Speaker A
up. It's just not going up. You're going to you're going to have to retest essentially this this lower end. Um, and I at that point I'm going to have to go all the way back.
Speaker A
Yeah. So 392. So it can retest basically where it came. I'm just grabbing like ex extreme lows right now. So from like all-time low to all-time high. Oddly enough, 737 is that 50% mark right there. That's a 50% retracement
Speaker A
all-time low to all-time high. Interesting. Uh where where your edge would be is around 290 to 270 down in here. But that does not come into play unless you're below 377. For now, support remains 377 and [clears throat] you're coming in
Speaker A
there. I don't I would not worry about a channel or any of that kind of stuff.
Speaker A
Like yes, it's the bottom of this channel, but if you see something like this kind of it's not technically speaking, it's not ready. How's that? It is not ready. It needs to get over 610.
Speaker A
And I know there was uh something's happening with the sheet where I'm not getting It's glitching from my arm.
Speaker A
Very same thing. Super similar. I This This spot right here is actually the first level resistance. It can do this. I had this already charted.
Speaker A
I I don't know how good this I I don't know how how I like this. I actually don't particularly care for this. I think that it's not going to go down right now, this moment, but this is another thing where this is
Speaker A
not a swing setup. This is a more like if you're if you're swinging as in like if you're going to hold this for longer than overnight, uh you don't uh from a trading perspective, if you're invested, you're you're
Speaker A
invested. I don't tell you. Um it's on support. Is it strong support? No. So you have this this here at 29750.
Speaker A
If it loses that, it does go to 250 or sub 250. That's what's happening. It will happen. Um if you get an open below 297 and a half, we're not opening below.
Speaker A
So it it can do this, but if you get that kind of situation tomorrow, it's the same thing as SPY and it's the same thing as KKQ. Um, and so the low end here is 250. It is what it is.
Speaker A
I'll just do it another way. See if I get the same See if I get the same number. Yeah. So, even if I go this route from extreme low to extreme high, that halfway point is right in here.
Speaker A
270 to 228 with the real edge being about 215. That's like a lot lower.
Speaker A
Another 27%. Yeah. Is it no touch? Again, I this is this is how the whole week looks across the board. Sell upside calls probably the best play. Can you get a bounce? Yeah, for sure. But the problem is if you get that, you're going
Speaker A
to have to deal with that and and your overhead resistance is here. So for those reasons, sell upside calls. You could totally sell downside puts at the same time. You could probably slap a big one on this guy for sure. I think at
Speaker A
Tesla also Tessy sub415 not going higher. Um you're on support again. If you like Tesla long term, you don't buy it over 415. So, I mean that said, sure. Um, I think at this point, these are not looking good right now. Um,
Speaker A
I had like 318 around 300 as like big support. if we get like a big um pullback.
Speaker A
Again, the problem I'm getting right now is that this area here and here, that's that it's similar to app where that's the resistance area.
Speaker A
And so between now and then, it it does kind of look like it's coming in here.
Speaker A
At best, maybe it comes and does that, but it's essentially this range that we're having to deal with, which which means you you could take it even a step further and just say, "All right, what's this look like?"
Speaker A
Even more like microscopic. Look, we got earnings. No, no, no. Earnings are on the like in in a couple weeks. So 380 is this support area down to 395.
Speaker A
395 down to 380 here. Again, this is a a day tradable setup. Like you could totally day trade this this way and or this way and or that way.
Speaker A
[clears throat] But um if you're holding more than intraday, one more time, this is neutral. It's a super neutral to neutral to bearish in general.
Speaker A
Who did a super chat on DG? DGX. What is this? DGXX, I will look at you. Appreciate you, Bobby. I mean, mostly because of Bobby, but um DG power. No idea what this does six days ago.
Speaker A
This is uh there's some kind of project here. So phase one of a multi-phase project, you got to look into the multiple phases. A identator remains on track. Uh December 2026 secured commitment uh B200 B300 GPOS.
Speaker A
It's light on cash. No debt. It's just small. supposedly NeoClouds with the Z is that's their that's their their service. I don't know this company. Um but it's a Neocloud power grab a crypto crypto conversion. There it is. That's
Speaker A
what I was looking for. So, you're going to have no debt, but you're going to have to deal with capital raises.
Speaker A
And if they have a cerebrous deal, that's weird to have a cerebrous deal. I don't see it in the I didn't see anything about cerebras anyway. Oh, this is old. May [clears throat] [snorts] talk to uh Nvidia 40 megawatts.
Speaker A
Cerebras offers long-term revenue opportunities. Uh, no. I don't think I'm buying this. Uh, you'd have to you'd have to look all that up. But, um, there you have it.
Speaker A
It doesn't look like it's for me just because it's a a power grab. No debt is great but there's too much risk of delilution right now. Like look at I mean the cloud players in general.
Speaker A
I don't know that I don't know who they were. So you'd have to look into that.
Speaker A
Just your own call. This has to. So from a chart perspective, even this more recent situation from here to here, this is what's the market gap on this guy?
Speaker A
$180 million. I probably get in trouble just for bringing it up. Um probably extremely low float. If it's under four, it's over 578. Cool. 568 likely. um resistance is up here 750 to 682. So this is this is a stock where
Speaker A
it's not out of the weeds unless it's over call it $8, which is literally a double from here. Um, I mean, yeah, it's it's interesting.
Speaker A
If it's over 430, okay, then I can see it go into that into that area and then whatever that other area was. You have you got to get over 430. I'm not looking at this unless it's over 430. I would I
Speaker A
would give you that. Okay. Lab of Rockets. We got a ton of requests for this guy. Lab of Rockets has failed.
Speaker A
[clears throat] You're not going to like me. Not going to like me. Yeah, she failed. That's all I can tell you right now.
Speaker A
I think we have all of these kind of like lined out as is. Um, so it's 66. It's the low 60s, mid to low 60s again. Um, unless this is over 85.
Speaker A
That was the that was the last shot, right? So, this needed to get over 85 and then it would have to get back over 99. We kind of path this out I think about a week or so ago. I'm gonna speed
Speaker A
up here after this. But it at at the moment where this was losing 99 and 58 which came back over here. You're like okay there's there's some kind of support in this area right here. Today you're breaching through support. One
Speaker A
day doesn't make a trend. Um it if it can't get back over 77 78.
Speaker A
Here's me zooming in. It's like this moment. Um I mean you opened above it.
Speaker A
That's fine. But that means that this has to trigger again later, which I would say is going to be a trigger over 80. Over uh 80 is a nice round number. I I quite frankly I would probably call it
Speaker A
over 85 for me to want to be playing with this again unless I'm sniping it in the low 60s. So in this box it's another one just like the rest of the markets like I don't want to ddle in the middle. You're
Speaker A
literally diddling in the middle. Downside is is down to the low 60s. Resistance is 85s.
Speaker A
If I got a bounce like that, I would be really concerned that um this is just going to do that on me. So, it's uh it's a sell premium kind of moment. I would sell it over 100, sell premium over 100,
Speaker A
sell premium below 60s. Uh I think for like three weeks out or something like that. I that that looks like a layup to me. But meaning that this is going to at least best case scenario go into a
Speaker A
little consolidation with a little bit more downside to go. So I maybe wait a little bit on this guy [clears throat] why they do as right behind it. I don't know. Um, I don't I don't even I This one's not um
Speaker A
No, this one's failed. Like no does not look good. If if the if the whole group, including SpaceX, just decides to take a nose dive. I mean it is what it is but s so now I just took
Speaker A
this from like the low lows to the extreme highs. Uh since this more recent one is just a no. Meaning like like look look any retracement of a recent move is invalidated already. So when that happens I have to go all the way back to
Speaker A
all-time lows and then take the full measurement from alltime low to alltime high. That's going to get me 65 95 which you know in fact is where it bounced before but it takes me all the way down to mid40s mid to high
Speaker A
40s as well. You just don't want to see that this is support. You don't want to see this 65 lose.
Speaker A
Like, you don't want to see it lose that range because if it does, then it's likely coming back in to low 40s, mid to low 40s, which quite frankly is going to be a way better buy. And this line here
Speaker A
is me just taking the basic downside support. Like if this was a big, you know, upward trend, which technically it is on a extremely high time frame, uh that support of the trend is all the way down at low 40s, mid to low 40s also. So
Speaker A
yeah, another one where it's wait and see. another one where it's probably safer to sell some upside calls like this.
Speaker A
And if you wanted to sell some downside puts like that against it because if it gets stuck in this chop zone, that's honestly what this looks like right now. Um, too many tests at this low. Uh, it's not I I I can't
Speaker A
I can't say anything different at this time frame. It's at least going to hit 65 94. It hasn't even hit that yet. So, best case scenario, you get this. But like I was saying before, it it's it's gone too far. Um,
Speaker A
it's gone too far to think that this is going to have a Vshape recovery at this point. It can go up to 98. I mean possibly, but realistically you got resistance at 80s and now you got resistance at one
Speaker A
just under 110. So big time resistance up here just underneath 100, small time resistance around 80, just underneath 80. So, this sets up for choppy trade like that. And I don't want to see that.
Speaker A
That that's that's what I don't want to see. But if you get that, that's a process. Um, again, selling upside and downside premium looks like a layup.
Speaker A
It just it just is what it is right now. Lastly, looking good. Thank God. Somebody give me a good looking a better looking chart. CDN's space crew had a shot. Not doing the deal.
Speaker A
Oh, Fastly. Oh, Fastly, are you going to take my money fastly or are you going to give me money fastly? I don't know.
Speaker A
I joke. I kid. I kid. Over the 20, over the 50. It's a bit squeezy today. These guys have earnings I believe coming up first. Yeah. Um, of all the cloud names or the AI names, AICcloud names, I feel
Speaker A
like the CDN's in specifically Okami, specifically Fastly, um, are the best trade location right now.
Speaker A
Um, coming into earnings, specifically these two, not not Cloudflare, different story. I I mean, I like these. I I I like them. I think the market is being dumb. There are probably a lot of companies where, you know, you could
Speaker A
look at the market and be like, "Oh, you're you're being dumb right now." For better or for worse, it is. It's what the market's doing right now. So, we'll have to see. Um, around that $17 level was that that that bigger
Speaker A
retracement from that low to this low. I like that. Uh, I have to be cautious of resistance here. So, next level this needs to get through is 2134.
Speaker A
If it's not through, call it 21 and a half. We're not actually continuing just yet. If it is, my resistance is right into that 27 um 25 to 28 area just like this right over here. So, upside resistance around 25
Speaker A
and a quarter up to 28 and change. If it's if it's over 28 and change, this got some serious legs. I I like the setup here. Uh I like these models generally speaking. That's about a 40% increase alone. Uh models in terms of
Speaker A
business model, you know, usagebased models I believe is going to continue to be a theme. Um this is seen as software.
Speaker A
It's it's a little software and hardware. Um takes me to Okami. a little sideways action. This is again one where I probably This is probably being kind of dumb, but yeah, but right in that I mean I had this area as support. Kind
Speaker A
of breached it a couple times, instantly recovered. I need to see this over 127 um in strength moving forward. And then we are on the mend. It's not quite there yet. Uh it's not there.
Speaker A
And then from that, sorry, this is mine. I have a decent sized position, so I care. Uh, then I got 145 upside resistance over 145. I'm I'm ready to roll.
Speaker A
[clears throat] It could be a long wait. A long wait. I'm just looking at this list, dude.
Speaker A
I'm going off script. I don't know about your list, guys. I don't know about your list.
Speaker A
But I'm going to check in on this bad boy. We got earnings coming on the end at what is that? Oh, early August.
Speaker A
So, this is the biggie. This is the biggie. We're going to go low end here. I hit that 170 support.
Speaker A
Still a little choppy, but if this can trend over 190, Qualcomm, um, she's on the mend. So, this looks like accumulation range as well to me.
Speaker A
Same thing. Resistance up here at 220s to 230s. She's over that. She's cooking cooking with gas. I did see some GLW.
Speaker A
The tough one on this is that upside targets, big ones have actually hit already.
Speaker A
I had a couple more, but once you lost that, I need this to get over 198. Yeah, I'm looking at this. I think this is all CPI hesitation is what I'm looking at.
Speaker A
And um and potential earnings hesitation after decent moves. Let's let's be clear on this. Since last earnings, corn actually has not moved that much. It was 165 on last earnings and is now 180s. So that's not 8 8 and a half%. This is not coming in
Speaker A
hot by any means at all. Uh and that last was a was a tanker. This one here they pop and they sell off a little bit.
Speaker A
Yeah, I think you can wait. Sell off a little bit. I think you can wait post earnings. There's only one that was like market changing July 2025, but it was a $60 stock back then.
Speaker A
Yeah, the the trend here looks like they we have selloffs. Um, this sell off would be into the one 145s potentially that 200 day simple, but this has to back over 210.
Speaker A
Otherwise, resistance is here, 186. Um, and this would set up like a bleeder down in that 120 area, 140, 145 area.
Speaker A
Just from a chart perspective, I I think again that would be another one where it's possibly stupid. I don't know how expensive or cheap this is. It's probably very expensive from a trailing perspective, but this is a company that,
Speaker A
you know, Nvidia gave them half a billion dollars and committed to give them even more money just so that they can spin up their their factories so that they don't run out of supply. Like when Nvidia is like, "No, no, no. We
Speaker A
cannot risk you not having enough gear for us. We're going to give you a bunch of money to to build more plants.
Speaker A
You're kind of an important company. That's all I say. [clears throat] T1. Yeah, just, you know, all I'm looking at just broken dreams everywhere right now.
Speaker A
Too far. [cough] [clears throat] 689 is where that needed to bounce. It's got to get back over sevens, like a m seven and a quarter, give or take, because now I have now it's making me come all the way back, which is
Speaker A
irritating because I don't like see how hard that is to get the get it like exactly right.
Speaker A
All right. And we're back. Yeah. So, similar deal. It's got to get back over 683 here. Otherwise, support about five bucks.
Speaker A
That's what it is. Support is about five buckaroos on the T1 energy. I don't know, man. If you bought it up here, just wait till it's back in an uptrend. Because like if you bought it if you bought it
Speaker A
up here, whether you buy it here or here, well, buying here is probably going to help you out. Or you wait for it to be back in an uptrend and you buy it more like here. I mean, I would I would prefer to do this one.
Speaker A
That's just me. But that puts this buy like way further down the road, which is what I'm seeing.
Speaker A
Intel [clears throat] also did not hold. I need that 105 to hold. She did not. Um, this one is going into the 90s possibly. So, it not looking good here.
Speaker A
Well over well below that initial um when I say initial, I'm looking at I'm looking at this kind of like volume shelf right here. I'm looking at that being pulled across right there.
Speaker A
Um I think the bottom end of that is about is about uh what was it? 105 something like that. If I took this Yeah. 110s.
Speaker A
Yeah. So this is this is coming in right in this area here which would be support one more time. Probably like 93s possibly. I mean it would be great. It would be great if this bounced immediately because this is technically
Speaker A
support but I won't know until tomorrow. So, it's possible it's at support. I would like to see I mean look these would actually all bounce if the spy and cues actually get there. These look like ugly charts but the buy is not like right now. It's
Speaker A
like wait till the close and then validate tomorrow morning or just wait for tomorrow morning which I think is the more appropriate play is not to do anything right now except maybe sell some options uh and then reevaluate tomorrow morning.
Speaker A
If we're going up from here, if we set the lows of the week right now, I think we're good. But as I mentioned earlier at from a from an index perspective, we're very we're not going higher.
Speaker A
We're not going higher. We have a little bit of a downside now. You just you just don't want to be jumping in front of the top like right before the whole trade breaks down, which is possible. Um Oracle is just
Speaker A
going down. I don't know what to say. Um yeah, this is not a long uh your new low. No, you're going lower. I I just No. Absolutely not. Um No, no shot. I have no I have no desire. None
Speaker A
other than puts again. From inception, there's your saving grace. from inception, all-time lows of I don't know, probably pennies on the dollar up to all-time highs. You're here. There you are. Right there. 120.
Speaker A
120. I mean, so if you lose 131, call it 120 there. I would like I think that would be ideal. And then that would be like a little breach, like a wick down. And then if it reclaims, cool.
Speaker A
But what that leaves in front of me right now, this moment is actually a short that is what what that leaves in front of me, in front of my face right now, is a short that has actually already played
Speaker A
out. And so I don't want to short the hole, if you will, which is literally what that would be happening. Like if this comes in tomorrow, cool. We got another 10 10 buckaroos. I'll I'll take that all day. That's not it's not
Speaker A
shorting the hole. After a $10 intraday move with an hour or so going. Yeah, that is. Um and and to to anticipate this holding. Well, that's anticipating it's decidedly not reacting. And in order to trade, you cannot anticipate. You must only react.
Speaker A
So, I cannot do anything here other than say the shorts have played out the majority here. It's possibly going lower, but tomorrow would tell a better story for sure.
Speaker A
Marll, [clears throat] the marvelous Marvel. No, that one you got a little bit more. That one you're looking 210s, sub 210s, potentially sub 170s. Yeah, dude. They're just decimating the AI trade night right now, huh? Like what the hell?
Speaker A
What are they doing, guys? 207 20788 closer to the like midpoint. But again, like this is what I'm saying like I have a very clear setup at the market right now. Meaning like I can sell calls and I can sell puts and I
Speaker A
think that is the move. I think taking a directional bet this week is not the move. Um, for sure, like for real, right now, let it play out, whatever. But either there's more to go and you'll get better
Speaker A
prices later or we're back on the uptrend and it and the coast is clear.
Speaker A
But the coast is not clear and we don't know if we have more to go or not. So for those reasons across the board, any any any any ticker that you give me so far has been exactly that.
Speaker A
This one looks like closer to the lows. This looks better. So this one looks like all right, we can get back into the 260s. So thank God for Amaze. Best looking chart of the day so far. But again, also like a lot of overhead
Speaker A
resistance and that's like 10 bucks right into resistance. The moment that this opens at 257, you got to hit the sell button like on on a on a trade if you will because it's not going over 260.
Speaker A
So I could say that one more time. Look, selling this upside and downside smacking it right in the middle of the range. Honestly, that looks perfect also. So, like for all of those reasons, yeah, I'm liking the neutral. I'm liking the neutral trades.
Speaker A
Um, also same this one. I [clears throat] think you could get just below that. Uh, see that right over here? That gap is going to be nice to hold, but don't press this bet. We already talked about hoodie a long time ago. This was
Speaker A
the fake move into earnings. Expect this to bleed out. I think I'll close any I'm closing this today. any remaining upside January calls and then we'll re-evaluate. I mean, if you want to gamble, you gamble. I'm already I'm
Speaker A
already taking a lot of profit on those, but this looks like it's going to retest this support.
Speaker A
I would say spread it off at at the very least because there's a lot of uh extra earnings IV for the taking here at the end of the month. That's probably going to be pretty juicy. And so this guy,
Speaker A
let's do this. I like it, but I don't think it's ready. Yeah. So, we had exactly this area as resistance. 122 to 119. Look at that. And then down to 108.
Speaker A
So, best case scenario, hoodie. And it's probably going to be similar to SoFi. Stop here. But I don't see this going over 125 before earnings. No. And if it loses uh 108 then I have actually like a bigger
Speaker A
pullback and I I don't want to into that's a bigger pullback into there you go as low as mid80s.
Speaker A
Let's see. Do I get mid 80s? So here hoodie this is like sell one 140 calls and sell $80 puts again that's the play is the play that is the way to go here that is a layup that is free money
Speaker A
sub 108 I it's very po you could short this I hate to say it sub 108 Okay, this can be a short trade all the way down to 85 possibly, at which point your short is over and you want to be thinking long. Um, but it
Speaker A
could go down to 90. It could go down to 85 if tomorrow opens below 108.
Speaker A
If it doesn't, then the trade does not go live. Not bad, though. I'm going to be selective here. Uh [clears throat] I don't know why. What What is this? I'm just going to do a quick No.
Speaker A
So yeah. No. Don't get So no. Um, this invalidating just like a just like a head and shoulders invalidating is super I'll give you this one. Just like if a if a if a bearish pattern fails, it's like a very bullish setup. If a
Speaker A
bullish pattern fails, it's a very bearish setup. And this is a be this is a bullish pattern failing as we speak.
Speaker A
Mita, [clears throat] I don't know anything about the company or what's going on um in that overhead resistance.
Speaker A
The saving grace here is that it's holding 60 65832. I would play the same playbook on this guy though. Literally, I mean, I was I did a meme, a kind of a meme the other day on uh it cracked me up. Like I was like, "Look
Speaker A
guys, what are we talking about?" Not really been like, "Oh my god, Meta is screaming by because like look at it.
Speaker A
It's it it wasn't the biggest discount. Like fundamentally, sure. Technically, no. Uh it wasn't the greatest discount.
Speaker A
And like you got to be really careful. So like here is that downward channel.
Speaker A
You're you're literally on the top of it. This is not a breakout market either.
Speaker A
Like I don't want to be taking breakout trades. Like you're you're literally on the top of it.
Speaker A
If something like that goes, it's I'll tell you what, I would be more inclined to short this than anything else. Um not necessarily right here, but in technical analysis, you're you're likely going to get a little bit of a
Speaker A
pop like this. I'll wait till everybody sees that. And um and usually like the the noobs will kind of chase this and all the pros come in and they're like, "No, we're taking you down like this." I um I I would like that trade.
Speaker A
Just be honest with you. Um sorry, but not sorry cuz like no better. If you have a fundamental story on here, I mean, you know, all good.
Speaker A
But that's a different that's a different kind of thing. Um, yeah, you're at resistance. You're at resistance right now.
Speaker A
This is that downtrend I was talking about. If I were to pull it in, you're right there. So, I think this could actually in fact get up to that 700.
Speaker A
I don't think you chase that. If you're long, don't do anything either. Um, this is a trading long-term there was never like massive damage. It never even got to the a basic 50% draw down.
Speaker A
This is what I'm talking about. Like this in this moment, right? Like we're in this moment. In this moment right here, what is going to happen? We shall see. We'll see. We'll see.
Speaker A
No trade. I think that's all I really want to do. I did Qualcomm, we did Oracle.
Speaker A
[clears throat] Nobody requested AMD. AMD is uh holding high and tight. Like this is crazy. I think so.
Speaker A
You guys are asking for the wrong stocks. I think in general AMD is not bad. It's still Apple's time. You're right here.
Speaker A
We nearly got the trigger. I got a daily trigger, but here's that prior alltime high.
Speaker A
I think if this is holding over 318, dude, this this actually looks pretty constructive. Shoot. If if I get a a pullback into this coming out, I I want this. I want this.
Speaker A
I have a a very near trigger right here. Look at this. So, nobody's asked for Apple. This is what I'm talking about.
Speaker A
Like, what's wrong with you guys? Don't come in here now with all the Apple requests either after I've shown you this, but like, okay, you have very clearly like high and tight massive explosive energy here. 31655 is the level, right?
Speaker A
Like from here, here, here, we open above. H I I tend to say that this goes I I would tend to say that that's going to happen.
Speaker A
And and that is also like a big old consolidation break from here. Does it happen today? I don't know. But is this Apple's like strongest time of the year? Yeah, it is.
Speaker A
So, I feel like this is a moment where you see Apple diverge from the rest of the detach from the market trend.
Speaker A
I would look at this area as general support, but if she's over 318, you're you're I have 330 plus on this chart. um sooner or later sub 310 she's a short and she's a good short down to 300 also
Speaker A
if you like condors you could also sell a little something something down here sell a little something something up here and I think that would serve you extremely well as well which would take me to Google and Again, not a single Google request.
Speaker A
Google request the the crew is sleeping. I don't know why. Um, but you know, I'm here.
Speaker A
349 retest of this prior top pivot right there. Looks good. I'm going to guess if I took a measurement from here to here, this would also be about the 50% mark. So, of this. So, let's go ahead and do that.
Speaker A
I mean, it's a good guess. It's a good guess. That's about 348. I don't hate this.
Speaker A
So if I can if this is the last low then I'm usually looking for the low before the low. If this happens I mean ahead of earnings. Oh Nikes. Anybody in the apprenticeship knows what that is. Um don't have it on multiple time frames.
Speaker A
Not quite. Daily not looking that great. We'll see. This is either going to be a big move upside or a breakdown.
Speaker A
She looks like she's going to hold this. Got room. Loos has room structure fully intact.
Speaker A
It's better chart than anything else I've seen. I mean, the mega cats, the mag sevens. Should we look at Microsoft?
Speaker A
Boys and girls, do we have a theme? Boys and girls, the theme has been found that the Mag 7 is in fact getting a bid minus Tessy and testing. Who am I missing? I did Meta Apple Google Microsoft Tesla.
Speaker A
I'm a brain fart right now. Nvidia, dude. Oh my god, what a loser. I did Amazon.
Speaker A
Nvidia not so bad. Not too shabby. But this is where this is where where where Meta is now. Remember that like downtrend? I'm like, I don't I don't want to I don't want to tag this like, well, it's like looking like a quote
Speaker A
breakout. You don't want that. But you do want it to come back in very much like this and retest it. So like, okay, so the most bullish So, so this is all I'm talking about. So you get a quick fade that already happened
Speaker A
this morning. If from here Nvidia can get out of the which I think she will um that's how this happens.
Speaker A
But if it doesn't like if it loses that 200 spot, I also have a pretty big downside trade as well. So I mean there's setups after setups after setups. The issue is that the downside has actually um kind of like played out
Speaker A
across the board. So, I don't want to short net new. It's no good. Um, but I want to watch from here.
Speaker A
Yeah. I don't Cory is the same. It's all the same. This one's not looking hot at all. Oh god, my Nebius was okay this morning. Nebius.
Speaker A
Ew. Why is she got to do it like that? I needed to see this over 214. So 180s was support is support remains support.
Speaker A
214 is like it needs to hold over. It's not. It's okay. So back test in here. Yeah. I mean I don't want to short that. I don't want to go long this either. Not here. Not with this setup. Can it come down a little
Speaker A
bit more? Yeah, it can. And still be good upside. It can. It's uh testy testy testy.
Speaker A
Yeah, even that from from uh measuring from this low to this high, extreme low, extreme high, that 50% mark is Oops.
Speaker A
That 50% mark is here down to here. That's 183 with big support down to 148 like so. But look at this. Like that is that's a money shot right there off the line.
Speaker A
So I just I just needed to hold over this for right now. 180s, 170s, high 170s, and then that can start to fix itself. But anyways, I think I'm good for now.
Speaker A
Rage, I'm kind of right there. I I definitely We need We need to see We need to see where this goes. We have some downside in front of us. No question. um is it like it but also it's
Speaker A
it's not over till it's over and uh right now the market is kind of [clears throat] I mean look we got stuff coming right we have CPI tomorrow that's the big one CPI tomorrow we got a slew of earnings
Speaker A
Not there. A slew of earnings coming back to back to back. A a little apprehension in the market is warranted.
Speaker A
It's warranted is what it is. Is it justified? I don't know. We don't know yet. But it is warranted. So, I mean, for those reasons, yeah, I'm not, you know, look, we got some big hitters here.
Speaker A
Gee, is it is Netflix even moving? Like, is that stock not $70 or is it in does it have a seven seven handle on it? All right.
Speaker A
Forever Netflix will start with a seven. Forever Netflix will have a seven handle on it. And yes, please like and subscribe. Hit the little bell.
Speaker A
Baby Genius DBA is uh you know, we can look at this. This is like the sector uh fund is fine. It's it's uh you're you're you're okay. It's nothing to write home about.
Speaker A
That's inflation. [clears throat] Netflix isn't going anywhere until the report. Yeah. I mean, that's that's that's basically the deal. And I think take that message, spread it across the market. A lot of things aren't going to be going anywhere until we can get
Speaker A
through CPI, until we can get through some major headline earnings. uh unless they're at the absolute lows and there's good stuff to look forward to, then I can expect some kind of like, you know, um pre-earnings bounces. But I when I
Speaker A
say absolute lows, I mean absolute lows, not like relative lows. I mean, I'm talking like fastly off 17. That's pretty low. Um STE Oh yes, steel. But steel is off the lows. It is off the lows. So that's what
Speaker A
that's what I'm talking about. We got home builders coming, too. So, um, he's going to like Adobe.
Speaker A
[clears throat] That's absolute lows. I mean, lows within the last, call it three months since the last earnings report. How's that? Within the last three months. Do I Did I discuss QXO?
Speaker A
No, I did not. We'll leave that for the milkman. I like QXO. I like the idea of QXO. I read I I drove by a building that had QXO on it and I was like, "Oh, is that one of those?" I hope it wasn't
Speaker A
because it looked pretty shabby. Otherwise, there's builders first. Uh but home builders fast and all is going to be a tell.
Speaker A
[clears throat] But yeah, this is not a spot to panic sell. No, you panic sell.
Speaker A
This is very like like it's it's also very possible you sell the lows. It's not a spot to like yolo in. Um, no. It's it is a spot to sit on your hands.
Speaker A
Decidedly a spot to sit on your hands. It might be an entire month to sit on your hands. I'll just put it to you that way. Be ready. But, uh, you know, the the other truth about trading and
Speaker A
investing is that the majority of it is waiting. And, um, you know, if you can't handle that, that's when you start to lose money. In these moments, taking shots on a market like this is where most new traders actually lose the most
Speaker A
amount of money. So my my my charter would be, you know, I implore you whatever to sit back, relax, and watch the show for a little bit before you actually put anything on the line because it it nothing's really
Speaker A
that I can see worth the risk right here, right now. Um and when you know the real world of trading shows up within a month, you know, the truth is that within a a month give or take, there might be
Speaker A
five days that turn out to be where all your profits come from. Um, and if you were to say, "All right, well, let's set back step back and say, you know, if I didn't mess around those other 95% of
Speaker A
the time, I I I could potentially be significantly more profitable." Um, this is like the 8020 rule, right? 80% of your your rewards come from 20% of your efforts. Um, it's true as a a general paradigm for life, but also in trading
Speaker A
it all, it all works. So, all right [clears throat] guys, I will see you tomorrow on a midstream. We will be there. Thank you guys for everybody that signed up to the webinar.
Speaker A
Hopefully, you guys got something out of it. If you have any questions, hit us up in the comments. Um, I got another video dropping hopefully sooner than later about the stock draft and the picks and the logic for that. I think you're gonna
Speaker A
like it. Whole another style. Um, and if you're curious about trading with us or what we do, guys, the server is free, the community is free. We give away a ton of free stuff if you There's a link
Speaker A
in the description. Join the crew. Doesn't cost you a penny. We do have a service, a school rather, but the idea is that you can come in to our community. We'll give you a ton of free lessons if you do it the right way,
Speaker A
meaning you have to come in through [ __ ] and stuff. You can think you get like seven lessons for free at beginning of the apprenticeship school apprentichip program and uh and you get to hang out with us and trade with us a little bit.
Speaker A
But the idea is that you should you come in, you hang out, you learn a ton with what you've learned for free, you make some good money, and if you choose to move on forward with us, we have other
Speaker A
options. But um but the idea is to come in, hang out, don't give us a dime, let us give you a ton of value, and see if you can make some money and see if you learn something. But um but yes, it's
Speaker A
all free. I love you guys. And with that, I'll see you tomorrow. Adios. [music]
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