Speaker A
Wow, you really have lowered your expectations, haven't you? That's why I'm so happy. I'm Angela Duckworth, and I'm Steven Dubner. I'm a psychologist at Penn, and I run an educational nonprofit called Character Lab. You also wrote the book Grit, yes, and I am a writer and I host a podcast called Freakonomics Radio. And you wrote the book Freakonomics, among quite a few others. I did, and you and I became friends. We did, and we discovered that both of us really like to ask each other questions. And there's only one rule. The rule is there are no stupid questions today. No stupid questions. How do you know if you're a hard worker? You come up with a few salient examples, right? You think of your wife lazy? No. She's not. You think of me super lazy? Angela Duckworth never does anything. Also, why do happiness levels tend to start dropping around age 16 and not rise again until our late 40s? To be precise, it's about 47 to 48, and I only say that because I'm 49, and so this matters a lot to me. Steven, I have a personal question for you, and I want you to be honest. Are you a hard worker? I like that question because it's, first of all, feels like a trick. Second of all, it is something I think about a lot, but I think about it in terms of did I work as hard as I was capable of working, not like did I do a lot. Okay, so scale from 1 to 10, Steven Dubner, am I a hard worker compared to myself and my potential or compared to like the universe of people? Let's go with universe of people. So compared to the universe of people, I'm going to give myself 8.7. So out of 100 people, you would be like harder working than 86 of them. And then, yeah, there's people in front of you that I ridicule for working too hard, the other people, workaholics. Okay, and then what about compared to how hard you could work? I'm going to say 8.6. Yes, that's right. Yeah, in other words, I feel like I could be, you know, in the top 10%, maybe top 5%. I could work harder, but I don't always push it as hard as I can. But I'm curious why you're asking this question, because you don't really care about how hard I work. Well, I'm asking you in part because it's a question I ask to measure grit. Being a hard worker predicts success outcomes, and I have, after 15 years of measuring whether someone's a hard worker by asking them, are you a hard worker? Well, does that work, asking them that question? I wouldn't think so. Well, kind of. You know, if somebody says, yeah, I'm absolutely a hard worker, then all things being equal, it is more likely that they're going to achieve something than not. There isn't grotesque inflation. There's certainly possibility of faking. I mean, remember, I'm a researcher, so usually when I'm asking people, it's not because I'm hiring them, right? So there's less of an incentive to fake with somebody who's, you know, not holding your future in their hands. But you still are like holding a clipboard or some equivalent thereof, right? You're an authority figure. Well, there's something else people do that's not flat-out faking, and it's called social desirability bias. We like to appear in ways that are socially desirable, actually not only because we think people with clipboards are watching us or that anyone else is watching us, but turns out there's kind of a form of social desirability bias where you don't want to look bad to yourself. People don't like to think badly of themselves. They just don't want to reckon in the most honest way with all their flaws and faults. So there's all kinds of reasons why we might inflate our scores on something like, on a scale from 1 to 10, how hard a worker are you? Now, how much of this is what's it called, illusory superiority, whatever, the Lake Wobegon effect, right? Oh yeah, optimistic bias, right? So how much of it is a legitimate poor assessment because we think we're better than we are? A lot of this does fall into that category, that at some subconscious level, we just don't want to think about ourselves in a negative way. We might actually think we're being accurate, but we're just fooling ourselves because we would like to think that we're hard workers. And how much of this is about, is it called reference bias? Is that what you people call this? Yeah, I'm kind of obsessed with this. Another reason why, you know, are you a hard worker is not a perfect question, and that is the following. Can I just say before you explain, I love that your question today is a question that you think is prima facie a bad question. No, I do. I'm serious. It makes it more fun to learn that the question was thought to be poor, but now you're going to tell us why it's good that it's a poor question. Yeah, well, at least I got to tell you why it's interesting. So when I ask you, are you a hard worker, I think what immediately comes to mind is, like you said, compared to whom? And you might say like the universe of people. In fact, you did. But guess what, Steven? You cannot conjure up the universe of people. That would be more than 7 billion, right? You cannot imagine what the distribution of humanity looks like and then place yourself somewhere in that distribution. What really you do is you come up with a few salient examples. You think of your wife lazy? No, she's not. You think of me super lazy? Angela Duckworth never does anything. You're like, let me revise my score, 9.9. But you can see how these numbers move around, right? And reference bias refers to the bias of having a given arbitrary frame of comparison that is idiosyncratic. And so you think you're comparing yourself to the universe of all people, but you're not. You're comparing yourself to a very small number of people. And if you choose a comparison set that happens to be super hardworking, then you're going to have artificially lower responses. One of my favorite studies on this is an international study of personality. Okay, and the personality trait that's being studied is conscientiousness. Now, some countries, one might argue, are a little more conscientious in general, and I'm not biased because of my Asian, some would say that the Far East, that the Chinese, the Koreans, and the Japanese on questions like are you a hard worker, are you dependable, are you punctual, are you orderly, that they might do better. Well, the least conscientious people in the world by self-report are exactly those people from the Far East. And the authors of the study said, look, it's theoretically possible that all of our stereotypes are 100% wrong, but it's also possible that these individuals from these cultures have such high standards for hard work and being orderly and the trains running on time that they have given themselves lower answers. Is asking about how hard you work a particularly incisive or insightful question? If you want to measure reference bias, are you really going to learn a lot about a person by how much they may deviate from the norm by that question? I don't know that, you know, are you a hard worker, like how good it is on its own. But there is something you can do with asking someone if they're a hard worker, and that is to give them little vignettes, little stories of other people, like this person wakes up at 5:00 in the morning and then they start working at 7:00. And you can manipulate the heck out of people. Well, no, it's not a manipulation. You ask them to then rate the person in the story. So you give them a series of stories, and then you can tell what their frame of reference is with some precision. But you can kind of get at whether this person is rating hard, like are they a strict rater or do they have really lax standards? Because when you give them a certain story, you know, one person might say, like, yeah, that person sounds like a seven out of 10, and another person might say, slacker, two out of 10. So the are you a hard worker question coupled with asking the person to rate hypothetical others can get you a little closer. All right, so let's say take a room of 100 people. I randomize them, and for half of them, I give them examples of people who are demonstrably hard workers. This person gets up at 4 a.m., and the other ones I give stories that are demonstrably not.