Jeff Currie on the Crazy Surge in Metals, And Why The S… — Transcript

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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Tracy, metals.

Metals.

That's it. That's the episode.

That's all. That's it. It's the title.

No, you're right.

Metals.

There's a lot happening in the metals space. So we have gold above 5,500 an ounce, which is a record. We have silver above $120 an ounce, also a record. And now we have copper at over $14,400 a ton.

Yeah. So this is something that's super interesting to me and I think it's a very important dimension, which is that copper is the ultimate industrial metal, right? And for, you know, Dr. Copper tells us about the economy. Probably a little overstated its reputation, but it's the ultimate industrial metal. Gold is the ultimate metal with no industrial uses, right? It's primarily a store of value, a sort of a form of money that's existed for thousands of years.

Safe haven.

And then silver is a little bit in the middle, more of a safe haven, but we know it has, it's used in solar, it's used in photography. Not that that really exists anymore. But you know what I'm saying? So it's like, it's interesting to see like, why are they all flying at the exact same time?

Yeah, I was going to say the exact same thing. So each of these metals historically would tell you something very specific about the state of the economy. And copper certainly would be screaming, people are bullish on economic growth. Silver, you know, something kind of in the middle. And gold, gold soaring is something that you traditionally associate with stress points either in the financial system or the broader global economy. And yet, here we are.

Yeah, it's all happening at once. And like, you know, you know, you could say like, oh, dollar debasement, right? And we know the dollar has been weak against other currencies. It's not like inflation as measured, you know, is like raging hot. So it's not just a simple story of like the dollar becoming worthless, so the, you know, the denominator or whatever going up or whatever the other way around is, et cetera. There's something going on with metals. Maybe they're just the new meme stocks, et cetera, but we have to, we have to dig in.

Yeah, let's do it.

All right. Well, I have to say, we really do have the perfect guest on the perfect day. Again, we're recording this the morning of January 29th. We're going to try and get it out ASAP. But this headline, copper surging 10%, unbelievable headlines. We've had him on multiple times in the past, a believer in super cycles, a vindicated man in many respects with many of his calls. He's a Goldman long time. We're going to be speaking with the one and only Jeff Curry, who is now a partner at Carlyle. Knows commodities as well as anyone else we talk to. So Jeff, thank you so much for coming back on the Odd Lots podcast.

Great. Well, thank you for having me. You know, commodities are up and, you know, back in favor. It was a rough last couple of years to say the least.

What do we?

You should just ask is this going to be the peak?

Is this the peak? Did we, is, yeah, that's the question. Is this the peak? Because we have

You're back on. Everyone's going to ask is this the peak?

Oh, did Odd Lots get the peak because they called, they rang Jeff Curry. So let's just get this out of the way.

By the way, I love that we're in the foothills of the Himalayas right now. So we're not even close to the the real mountain peaks yet.

Really?

Yes.

Okay, so I'm going to ask the obvious question, which we alluded to in the intro, but why are all three of these things moving in the same direction all at once?

When you look at the commodity complex, you take anything that has an atomic number to it that's in the periodic table, it's going up right now. Even nickel and zinc have joined the party. If it is a molecule and it has a carbon in it, a carbon hydrogen, a CH in it, it's been strong. So that includes hydrocarbons as well as carbohydrates like corn, wheat, and so forth. So that space, the molecules have been struggling, yet you have the things that are primarily critical minerals, things that are in the periodic table, the atomic number have all done well. And the fundamentals in copper are not that much tighter than what you have in oil.

The what's going on in the metal space is hoarding, given the concerns over having availability of these critical minerals.

And you you threw out the idea of debasement.

And I want to throw in three other Ds. D-dollarization and diversity to your debasement.

So debasement, D-dollarization and diversity is what's driving all of these different metals.

And when we think about the D-dollarization, and that goes back to 2022 when the US and Europeans froze the central bank assets of Russia, every emerging market goes, uh oh, I don't want to be owning any dollar denominated assets because look what happened to the Russians.

And as a result, they're moving as fast as they can out of dollar assets and into assets that cannot be seized.

And precious metals and metals are are part of that.

And then when you have the geopolitical risk as high as they are right now on a global basis, whether it was US cutting off Venezuelan oil supply to China, India, and Europe, or it was the Chinese cutting off critical mineral supply to the US and its allies, or it's Russia cutting off supplies of natural gas, it's a dangerous time to be dependent upon foreign commodity supply.

And as a result, we have stock piling. And we everybody talks about the squeeze in silver, running it up to $120 an ounce.

The reality is this is a squeeze by the population of the people in China.

You know, they're hoarding the silver over concerns around, you know, export controls and things of that nature.

So you mentioned China just then and this is exactly what we wanted to ask you about, which is if you've stripped out what's going on in China, how much of the rally would disappear in something like gold?

I mean, the vast majority of it is not just China, but emerging market central bank buying, basically reduced their holdings of Western bonds that can be frozen similar to what happened with the Russians.

So, you know, do not underestimate the impact that China's had.

In fact, if anything, China and the other emerging markets have squeezed other participants in the gold market out.

And you still have a long ways to go.

I like to point out that in 1970, when Nixon took the US off the gold standard, central bank reserves of gold stood at around 40%.

Last time I calculated late the end of last year was in that 27 to 28%. With the run up in the last couple of days, it could be as high as 30% by now.

But I think the key message is, there's still a lot more buying by central banks to diversify themselves out of dollars.

I'm still

I'm still a little bit confused.

What is it about silver particularly that's so desirable right now from the population in China?

Because just let's talk about hoarding and some of these issues.

It's totally understandable why China wants to hold certain strategic assets, right?

It wants to accumulate a lot of oil in part because of defense purposes, because in the event of a war for whatever reason, they may get shut out of oil, so they need a lot.

What is it about silver in the population context that makes it so desirable? And by the way, I'm looking at a chart, it's from two days ago, but the Shanghai silver premium, buyers in China paying more than $5 an ounce versus everyone else in the rest of the world.

But explain what is it that's driving this purchase from the public in China?

Okay, first let's talk about its role as a critical mineral.

It goes into the production solar PV.

And that makes it, as you pointed out at the beginning, 50% an industrial metal and then 50% of a store of value like gold.

So the fact that it has these dual uses, it's a critical mineral and important to the electrification process on a global base.

Remember, it's a superconductor.

Actually, let me go back to answer your question. Tracy, you may say, what do gold, silver and copper all have in common? They're superconductors.

I know people say, well, Jeff, copper isn't exactly a definition of a superconductor.

It's not as strong as as silver and gold, but it sits up there in that electrification process.

And so when we think about silver, it's critical for the industrial base of China, given the importance of solar panels as a part of the industrial manufacturing process in China.

So, you know, if you're the PBOC or something like that, you you're going to be very focused on making sure there's adequate silver supplies inside of China.

Um, so the fact that it also then has the store of value like gold and accessible by many parts of the population, because even at, you know, 100, $100 an hour, $120 an ounce is wherever this morning, it still makes it a much more affordable, uh, you know, a store of value.

So I think the two key points for China and why silver is so important is its role as a critical mineral and as a superconductor.

And given the importance of solar panels and other types of renewable investments to the Chinese industrial base, having a secure supply of silver is absolutely critical to the Chinese economy.

Second of all,

is when we look at the price of silver, even at $120 an ounce, it is still very affordable to many of the population as a store of value, similar to gold.

And also given the recent price trends, people feel comfortable in holding it.

So it has those two components that make it critical to the Chinese economy.

Some people would say that like, all right, you can look at all these things surging and tell a story about debasement and electrification and what the future world is going to look like.

Some other people would say, well, you could tell an even simpler story, which is that one of these markets is wrong, right?

So maybe copper sees economic growth going to the moon, although it seems kind of unlikely to me.

Maybe silver, you know, is somewhere in between.

Maybe gold is wrong about the debasement thesis, whatever.

How do we know that we're just not seeing investors get this one wrong?

People are just going in for momentum.

Or the meme coinification of precious metal of metals.

Well, I I do think when we talk about a commodity super cycle.

The S word.

Which by the way, is nothing other than a commodity CAPEX cycle, a big global CAPEX cycle.

And we're seeing that, you know, it's investment in defense, investment into AI, data centers, the list goes on.

This is a world scale CAPEX boom we're now entering. And that typically is when you see the big commodity super cycles, one in the 70s, one in the 2000s, and we're

I mean, just take the defense spending in Europe alone, it's likely to be 9 trillion euros over the next decade.

To put that in perspective, the Chinese boom in the 2000s was 10 trillion US. Today, it's about 15.

So even just Europe alone, we haven't even factored in data centers and AI.

So when that occurs, typically what we see is a repricing and rerating towards asset heavy industries and commodities.

Or another way to think about it is short duration.

Strangely is when interest rates are low, everybody thinks, oh, you would be doing CAPEX cycles. No, you do them when the interest rates are high because the interest rates are high, they're telling you, you need to put money into the ground.

And so we're moving into one of these repricing where we're going to move back into the asset heavy space, which is why it'll ultimately be sustainable across the entire commodity complex.

And I just want to take a step back and talk about these repricing because in my career, I've lived through two.

The first one was in that, call it 02 through like 04 time period. And that's when we coined the term revenge of the old economy.

Old economy is asset heavy, new economy is asset light.

In that asset light in the late 90s, 2000s was really about the scalability of software.

You don't need to have put a lot of money into the ground to be able to create growth.

And that was the whole asset light model.

But eventually, we ran out of all of these heavy industries that you need to make the investments in.

And then China came on the scene and it became clear we need to make those investments.

And that happened over that decade.

But that repricing, rerating was a violent process if you moved out of new economy or into the old economy.

The next time we saw that was in 1415.

Where we moved out of the old economy and into the new economy.

Why? Because it was clear China was at the end of the track.

And if you remember that time period, we go through there, the euro went from like 1.4 to parity in the course of like 18 months.

I remember the period, oil was coming down $7 a barrel like every other day.

Everybody's, what's going on? What's going on?

But I want to make a point here.

To get to your point about why is this sustainable across all these commodities?

And when we look at, I'm going to take a like a private equity pitch book in 2012 of a Canadian oil asset.

They valued the asset at $110 a barrel.

The IRR of that asset, that this oil field was 25% at 110.

Now, fast forward to 2016 after the macro repricing.

Oil was sitting around $40 a barrel.

Now, let's go reprice the IRR of that asset.

What do you think it is?

Immediate response, people go, oh, it was negative IRR.

No, it was around 18, 19%.

It didn't come down much.

Why?

Is because the Canadian dollar repriced, so wages went down.

You had a repricing of the cost of capital.

You had a repricing of copper, iron ore, they all came down.

And so your cost basis came down such that the IRR was far more stable over that repricing.

And that's ultimately what we're starting to see happen across this space right now.

And I believe we're in one of these repricing where we're going to move back into the asset heavy space.

I want to make one last point before moving on this during this.

Sure.

Going to make this one really different from ones in the past.

Is I want to go back to the 1960s because it's similar to today.

And that was at the at least in the modern data, the the first big commodity super cycle.

The asset light space back in the 60s was companies like Coca-Cola.

In fact, all the Nifty 50 were brands.

What do brands have similar to, let's say, Microsoft?

Infinitely scalable at zero marginal cost.

And so Coca-Cola was the world's darling right now.

And all of the big commodity producers, the miners, the oil companies were at the bottom.

And then you had the Arab oil embargo create that catalyst to reprice.

Now, what happened here is that that's different today.

So you think about that asset light space was Coca-Cola then and then in in 2000, it was Microsoft and today it's Google and the hyperscalers.

Now, here's where it gets really different in the power of what's going to happen now.

Is the asset light space is getting into the asset heavy space.

I.e., these hyperscalers are putting steel into the ground.

And by the way, you're no longer a asset light, infinitely scalable software company.

You're a miner, you're an oil company, you are a commodity producer.

Your multiples going to get repriced.

And so what we have is the asset light space this time is moving into the asset heavy space and putting steel in the ground.

So this is going to be a real violent transition. So you ask about copper and silver and the rest of these things. What are the restrictions on their big CAPEX budgets?

It's the availability of transformers.

What are transformers?

Big chunks of copper.

And so we have a difference in this cycle than ones in the past is the asset light space is colliding in the physical space at the exact same time.

Which is what I tend to think that this repricing is going to be more violent, more sustainable.

And what you're going to see in and it goes to a simple point that I observed in the 2000s was when oil first went up, everybody goes, oh, it's a bunch of investors buying oil.

It sits at $60 a barrel, that's supernatural returns.

No, you actually had capital rotate out of the asset light space and into the oil space during 0405 such that the cost basis actually rose and there was no supernatural returns.

So go Tracy, back to your point.

How sustainable is this?

Well, what we're seeing is all the capital flowing into this asset heavy space and it's going to build the ground underneath these prices and support them from a relative cost basis.

And so when we think about $14,000 a ton copper, it doesn't mean these guys are earning supernatural returns because we see so much capital moving into the space.

Yeah.

Just to be clear,

since the last time we talked to, there has not been a ton of activity in terms of let's actually start digging.

No.

Because the pullback in late 22 and early 23 was so vicious across this entire space.

Yeah.

That the money they looked at it and go, I got beaten up.

You know, Curry, you told me to go in back in 20 and 21.

Work for about a year and a half, I got absolutely creamed on the backside.

I'm not going to do that again.

And so they got beaten up over that time period.

Their willingness to go back in and believe the story.

It's not that high.

They're going to have to see it.

And now that's moved so quick, so fast like it did in 22 that they're going to look at it and go, oh, I've missed it.

And I think, you know, it's like Tracy's point is how how much further does it go? How sustainable is it?

And I think the key point there is it's got it's that volatility is discouraging them.

And that's why I tend to think what is going to force the money into this space is you're going to have to have the returns in the asset light tech or whatever you want to call it world.

Get to a point that they're going to look at the old economy and going, I'm willing to take that risk and go in it because that's the only place that has returns.

And when they do that, that's when you're going to end up seeing the rotation.

And I also want to go back to a point here.

Is the market is so severely underweight all of this stuff.

Because it's been so hated for so long.

That

Anti-gold bug.

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