Speaker A
You're expecting that weekly candle to expand lower. It's been expanding all week. So, we have momentum on our side. We have a consolidation that's occurred, and we had a pool of liquidity engineered with these relative equal highs. And the market broke out to the downside first, and then they ran on the highs. So, once it went here, we don't rush in there and just go short because it went above the old highs. We're looking for some specific signature that tips its hand to you. Okay. And I promise you, when you start going through your charts, and it's going to be homework for you, you're going to see this occurring almost every single day. And if it is not doing it this way, it's doing it the opposite direction as a buy. Okay. Again, don't take my word for it. You're going to be flabbergasted. You're like, I'm flabbergasted. When you see how many times this thing forms every single week. Okay. It's many times throughout the intraday charts, it creates this type of move. But it runs the stops. Then we have a short-term low, and then it breaks below. So, now we have a break in market structure. Okay. Once this low is broken, you're going to look for this little area here. That's that imbalance I mentioned in the beginning, right? So, what's happening is the market's going to go right up inside that area there. And that's where you want to sell. Now, if you don't sell there, you can drop down to a lower time frame, one-minute chart. If this was a three-minute chart, you can go down to the one-minute chart, and look for that to occur on that time frame as well. And it many times will form if you're looking at a lower time frame, like say this was a five-minute chart, and you looked at a one-minute chart, you'd find one down in here. It's a matter of scaling down in your time frames because once you have an underlying premise to the market now likely to go lower, it becomes an easy thing to look for these types of things. So, in your chart, once you're developing this idea, and in learning it, you're going to highlight this candle's low, this candle's high. And this right here is what I teach my students as a fair value gap. Okay. You don't have those in books. Okay. You don't have any of that kind of stuff out there. It's something I introduced back in 2016. And obviously, a lot of people discovered how good it is, and they try to make courses with it. But I'm going to not touch that right here. But the idea is, once it go up into that imbalance there, and once it does that, as soon as it enters that area, the algorithm that delivers price. Now, some of you may not know what that means. And some of you may not even agree with it. You may think that this is made up or it's contrived. I promise you, if you spend time with this, you're going to quickly come to the conclusion that there absolutely is an algorithm, and it's manipulating the markets every single day, every single tick. It's completely controlled. Okay. Period. You're led to believe it's buying and selling pressure. Now, if I go back and use that analogy where it went down here first, then go up here. Some of you may argue, see, that's the buying and selling pressure. No, it's not. It's liquidity. Now, you may argue and say, well, we're arguing semantics. No, I'm telling you what's going on. This is the logic. This is how these markets book. Okay. Once you see these patterns over and over and over again, it's very easy to execute on them. But the impulse to want to do it the first time you see it because you watch this video, that is going to be problematic for you. So, you're going to have to do a certain number of weeks and months of back testing. There's no escaping that. You have to do it. Any skill set, any teacher, educator, system, whatever. Okay. Whatever they're going to give you, there's going to be some kind of growing period where you have to trial and error, fix the problems that you have about yourself. And I've literally taken your attention to a very specific framework and setup. Notice that? Some of you may think I'm still talking too much, but I'm taking you right into the heart of the matter. This is what it looks like. This is what you're looking for. Okay. These are the fingerprints of that setup. These repeat. So, if you know what they are, and what those components are that make up this setup, you'll be able to find them. But focus on the imbalance after the market structure breaks. So, this big candle here, it breaks down. Look at the next candle. It opens and trades higher and stops right there. So, from this candle's low and this candle's high, when this candle starts trading, as soon as it opens and it runs right up into that, that's a short. You can go right in there and sell short. Be done. Now, where is your stop going to be? Well, you can put it above this high here, or you can put it above this candle's high. Whichever your risk parameters allow for. Okay. If you're trading the micro, which is again, it's not a lot of money per tick. So, the multiplier for that is very, very small. If you trade the larger full futures contract, and if it moves 100 points, you know, and it can do it real quick, it can burn you pretty bad. So, you may have the leverage to trade with a discount broker. Okay. You may have the initial margin to trade with a discount broker, but you may not have the wherewithal and the skill set to navigate this market. And that's the only thing I'm trying to provide here as an alternative because there's a lot of individuals out there that will promote the idea that you can go out there with a discount broker and just clean up. Yeah, if you know what you're doing. But you don't need a discount broker to be profitable. Okay. Looking at this further, we're going to look at the logic in here. And I want you to think about after this forms, and you see that as your choice setup or entry. If it starts to move lower, you can still get in it. There's no reason not to think that, you know, you can't get in it here or in here. It's close to or in close proximity to where that area is as an entry. Once we take out a low, though, once that occurs, then it becomes a matter of you're chasing price. And if you try to get in, especially if you look at use a market order, you may see it trade right to this low, and you say, okay, now I believe it's going to go down. You put a market order and sell short, then slippage gets you down here. That creates a larger area of risk that you have to assume, and it's just it's problematic. You want to learn to trust going short when the market's going higher, and that feels scary at first. But once you start seeing this pattern form, it becomes easy to trust it. And in fact, that you want to be doing that. You want to be selling short, expecting lower prices, right when the candle's going up. And retail traders can't grasp that many times. It's just like, it goes against the logic because they think, I got to have confirmation. All the books say, I have to have confirmation. And that's somebody that's coming in late. That's someone that doesn't know how to read price. They can't really follow it. And usually, they're the people that will trade short with additional sell, you know, sell stops. They'll put sell stops below the marketplace, and then that's the momentum entry for them. And it's kind of like a no-brainer. In fast markets, it yeah, it works. But if you don't know what you're doing, and you try to do that in a market that's consolidating or about to reverse, it hands you your backside. Okay. So, if you're looking at this framework here, and we've taken the buy stops, we have our entry pattern here. What would you be looking for as a downside objective? Well, I'm going to teach you the liquidity matrix. Okay. And sounds pretty cool, sounds neat and all that, but watch what it is. This here is your range. This is the low of the day, and this is the high of the day, thus far. So, if we take that range and split it from the low to the high to get the midpoint. All of this can be determined by a simple 50 level on a Fibonacci. So, you drag your fib from this high down to that lower vice versa, and have your 50 level highlighted. Then, anything above that 50 level, this is referred to from an algorithmic stance as a premium market. It means it's expensive. Now, markets can stay in a premium for a while and not go to a discount, which would be below the 50 point. Okay, 50%, anything down here is a discount. If you're bearish, if you're ever going short, you want to look at the previous range. Where are you at inside that range? So, when this formed here, that little fair value gap, once that formed, you're thinking, okay, we are in a premium. So, algorithms will want to go to a discount. That's the opposing side of the marketplace. So, if it's going short here, it's driving the market lower. What does that mean? The algorithm's going to start pricing lower. You can have all the buyers in the world come in. If the algorithm is in a sell program and it's going lower, it does not matter. It's going to reprice lower and lower and lower. And then what will happen is, those buyers that may come in with a huge influx of volume, they're going to get crushed, and they get squeezed. You ever hear the term, oh, this is a bear squeeze, this is a bull squeeze. All that is an excuse for them not to know why the algorithm's doing what it's doing. That's it. That's all it is. It's an out. Okay. I'm telling you, this is what's really going on. So, the market's moving from this premium high, this specific entry point, to a level below the 50 of this range, this low and this high. Now, I want you to again, go back and rewind the video once we're done, and look at that execution page where I showed you my entries, going back and forth, up and down, up and down. And where I got out at, where I got in at. Okay. I want you to think about what below this level here, the 50 level, what is resting below here? Sell stops. So, now think about the idea of someone like you and I that would see this ideal entry as a short. We have to sell to get in that short. How do we get out of that short? We got to buy it back or cover it by buying. Well, we're going to find willing sellers at a low price relative to this point here. They're willing already sitting down there with their sell stops, right below that low. Now, look closely. What else resides right near that low? Do you see it? Pause the video before I show it to you because it kind of ruins the experience because if you find it, and I don't tell it, it feels good. Right there is that imbalance I mentioned. Okay. It's only one single candle passing up, and the previous candle's high, and the next candle's low. That area right there is an imbalance. From this area here, it went down below the 50 level, and attacked these sell stops, and completely closed in this imbalance. So, every point of this candle's high to this candle's low, that range with the candle only going up, that's a buy side imbalance. It has to have an equal delivery to be efficiently priced and booked by the algorithm. It goes down and completely closes it back in with down movement. Notice the candle on this here, it opens and then trades down. So, it fulfills its role of balancing the buy side offering. Now, the sell side offering. So, that is an efficiently delivered price move. Precision elements from the entry here down to here. Everything else after that for the rest of the day, I didn't care about. Even though I had an objective of that old daily low, I wasn't expecting it to run into this particular day. And that's why I didn't participate anymore the rest of the day. In hindsight, I wish I would have left a small position on and just let it go, but you're going to have that. You're never going to be right about everything all the time, every single day. You're going to leave things on the table. You're going to get in too early. You're going to hold too long. You're not going to buy enough, or you're not going to sell enough. There's always going to be some reasons why you didn't do something right. So, don't beat yourself up about it. Okay. But if you can find elements like this repeating in the price action, can you agree with me that that is an amazing precision? And this is the logic I used to do that trade, the very trade that I showed you that was the largest one in the example of saying, which one would you rather learn how to do? I basically just handed you an ATM machine. Okay. This repeats every single week. Every single week. Now, I want you to count the number of the handles in this move. No. It's over 100 and some. Now, let's assume for a moment that you get good at this, or I get the inclination that I want to go to some kind of a deep discount broker. And I go in, and I do trades like this, and I'm putting on 15 to 25 full futures contracts. What do you think the results are going to be? Yep. So, not everything is going to be easy right away. And you're not going to be able to see these things happen just because you sit in front of the charts. You have to study, and you have to practice. And by experience of looking at old moves and watching real price action, as best as you can. If you can't watch it live, TradingView has a replay button where you can watch the candles kind of form, but they're they're a little stilted because it's not completely painting the candle. Okay. And you can't practice with entering like that. You can only just study how price moved and gravitated towards certain levels. It's the best thing you can have. If you if you at least consider doing that much, that's good. But if you really want to take it to the next level, and say you're running a business, or if you're going to school, or you have a job, and you can't watch the time frame around the opening of the index futures. And I like watching it around 8:30 in the morning, New York local time, to 11:00. There's usually a setup in there that I'm going to be able to find. Obviously, you can see I did multiple setups and executions today, but the point is this, that's like that sweet little spot in the morning that I focus on. I teach that in this YouTube channel. I teach it in my paid mentorship group. So, you're getting real stuff here. It's not something that was contrived. I didn't just make it up because this day worked out in my favor. My students recognize these things also, and these are simple elements that repeat. What you're looking for is a run on liquidity. Buy stops or sell stops. If you're bearish, if you're looking for buy stops to be ran, then a break in market structure. Then a break in market structure lower. A short-term low being broken. That's what it looks like right here. Short-term swing low. We have a candle high. I'm sorry, candle higher to the left with with its low here. Then you have the low of this candle, and the next candle's higher low than this one. So, you have a swing low formed. If you have that, and then you have a break below that, if it happens that it creates a gap like this, that's what you're looking for. When it trades up into that, you can go short. Or, if you want to use sell stops, you can use a sell stop in this candle here, and this let it trip you in, and then use the high of that candle as your stop. That may be too wide for you, but I mentioned the logic around this is, you're using a micro. Okay. Micros aren't that big of a deal. It's not a lot of money. Okay. It's not a lot of money. You're not risking a full futures leverage. It's very, very small. So, if you're looking at these types of setups, and you can find them forming repeatedly over and over and over again, and you study them, you're going to see that you don't need to get these little five handle moves, these little 10 handle moves. You can make a living doing that. Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say that people cannot be profitable and wildly profitable. But when you learn how to do something like this, and you're able to pull down this number of handles, and then you have sound money management, nothing compares to it, folks. These are the things that I use when you watched on when I was on Twitter, and I ran up the demo accounts really high. These are the types of setups I was using. These types of setups, and as the account grew, it was more demo account leverage. Well, I'm not using a demo account right now. I'm showing you with a Thinker Swim. And anybody that knows Thinker Swim, when I'm showing you those screenshots, the paper trading shows as orange. Everything on that page is orange. When it's a live account, it's green. Okay. Also, here's the rub. With a demo account, it's just demo, demo, demo, demo. Okay. I'm not trying to promote the idea that you're going to get rich. Notice that account hasn't gone bonkers. It hasn't ran up to a million dollars because this mentorship is to hopefully inspire you to pick up a skill that if you deem it useful, and you decide at your own discretion and your own timing, and you assume that risk on your own, because I'm not going to tell you to do this. If you decide to get really good at this, and you put money behind it, that's a skill set that could, I'm not promising, but it could alleviate some of the problems with what I believe is coming in terms of financial hardship, not just in America, but everywhere. Jobs are getting harder and harder to have. The economy is a mess. So, how do we answer that? How do we get another income stream coming in? This is, in my opinion, this is one of the ways that you can at least investigate the idea of doing it. All right, so I'm going to give you some homework in closing. I want you to go through all of the E-mini futures intraday charts. Okay. Just like I showed you here, these time frames, go back and look at the presentation and see what the time frames I gave you. Listen to what I gave you in terms of audio commentary. That is enough. In fact, I gave you a ton. And it may have your head spinning if you're brand new to me, or you're brand new to technical analysis or trading. You may feel like, man, this is too fast. Do not send me an email. I promise you, the lessons I have planned will help eliminate and answer majority of the things you're going to ask. Just try to study and keep up with the pace that I'm going to put you through, which isn't going to be all that bad. But as we progress deeper into the teachings, many of the questions that are going to come up, or when you start going into the homework assignment, where you're looking at old data, an intraday chart is anything less than a daily chart. So, like a four-hour chart, that's intraday. One-hour chart, that's intraday. Five-minute, three-minute, two-minute, one-minute. All those time frames are intraday. What you're going to be looking for are breaks in market structure after a pool of liquidity. Okay, buy stops or sell stops that have been taken in an opposing direction of your weekly expected range. In other words, are you expecting higher prices or lower prices on the weekly range? So, if you're looking for lower prices, your focus is on a run above an old high. Once that forms, then you're looking for a break in market structure on a lower time frame. Once that occurs, and you have an imbalance, that's your trigger. Okay. And then you split that range that was created. Find out where the 50% is, and then if you're selling short, you want to find something like an old low or an imbalance to aim for as your target. And you want to get the closest target. Don't try to get fancy and say, okay, well, I think it's going to go down to that lowest low and try to use that for your exit. Because sometimes these markets can deny you that. So, low hanging fruit is how I teach. You want to have the easiest target, and then allow the market to go further and you just not be a part of it. It's okay. Is is 125, 130 handles in an index not good enough? I think it's good enough, but I'm probably just biased. But the homework assignment is again, you're going through the charts, using the logic I framed in this introduction lesson, looking for breaks in market structure. I also have lessons in this YouTube channel that talks about market structure breaks and things like that. And then you're going to look for the imbalance in price, which is that fair value gap. Then, you're going to determine where an opposing high or low resides, then log and back test the number of handles you see in hindsight examples. In other words, how much did it offer? And you're going to get a collection of doing that. The next lesson, I'm actually going to show you how to go back into the charts and look for them, how to log them in your journal, and give you more insights about how you can find these setups that repeat every single week. Okay. So, again, I'm going to build on this foundation in the next episode. The next episode will be next Tuesday, and the time upload will be 10:00 New York local time. Hopefully, you've enjoyed this one. And until I talk to you next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.