独家！2026.4.23 香港WEB3大会付鹏 25分钟完整版 #付鹏的财经世界 #付鹏 #金融 #投资逻辑 — Transcript

Okay, many people these days have been frantically asking, Why did I get involved in the crypto community, and the crypto asset community, so closely?

In fact, this opportunity should be traced back to around 2022, when it actually began. It has been about four years. In the traditional financial field, we have been closely following and closely tracking the trends in the entire encrypted asset market.

Of course, today, I am here to give this speech, and it's actually quite simple. I'm just going to tell you a story from history. Because for me, I actually belong to the era's beneficiaries, the main recipients.

So everyone, might think that my title is economist, but in fact, I am not a scholar, but for the real past 25 years, my core experience, that is, what people traditionally understand as hedge funds.

Then you must think of why these traditional capitals and people or funds in traditional financial fields have started to pay attention to it? In the past year, I have mentioned that in the future, it will definitely be FACC plus C. It refers to the allocation of major asset classes, which includes crypto assets. So many people want to know why. Therefore, I happen to take this opportunity to briefly share with everyone.

Because this sharing, as long as you understand it, actually, how the market works, how asset prices move, and so on, you may already have answers in your mind. So the layer of window paper above, today, I'll help you pierce it.

This time series needs to be dialed to the origin of FICC major assets. When? Approximately from the late 1970s to the early 1980s.

In fact, over the past decade, all of you present here, have been able to clearly recognize the overarching framework and landscape of our world, which are undergoing tremendous changes, and such changes, after World War II, the time we most closely resemble is in the 1970s and 1980s. For instance. Just now I saw Xiao Feng talk about AI. I saw all the guests actually mention AI, artificial intelligence. The integration of AI as an important technological progress and productivity improvement will reshape all industries. All industries include all sectors, and of course, it will inevitably encompass the financial sector.

Our financial system is not static; it is by no means like what people see in The Greed of Man, right? If you watch The Wolf of Wall Street, or movies or TV series like that, the finance shown in them is people in vests shouting orders on the trading floor, or, for example, you go to the New York Stock Exchange, and many people might still think that finance is just about the trading floor, where everyone quotes prices and trades, and many journalists still prefer to use the context of exchange trading to conduct news reporting.

You go to Chicago, right? You go to our earliest interest rate derivatives market, and you'll still see. In the circle you go to the London Metal Exchange, LME, you will still see the traces of history. That's right. It is the most traditional finance which can be said to be the finance before the 1960s and 1970s. People wore vests and shouted prices, and used typewriters and punch machines to complete the transaction payments for money transfers.

For the Chinese-speaking world, or for most Chinese people, People's impression of trading. Is it in the stock trading hall watching the so-called flip-board machine and the prices? Fill out the form, and put it in the counter. Then a girl will call the exchange by a dedicated telephone line to complete the deal. Not all financial or trading activities remained in that era.

Financial intermediation has undergone the most significant change, which must be due to technological advancements. Therefore, in the last technological progress cycle, semiconductors, computers, personal computers, DOS systems, Windows, etc. Represented by these as the core, the advancement of productivity, namely technological progress, in the late 1970s, and early 1980s, it has rebuilt the new pattern of our financial sector. The time when FICC was born was in the early 1980s.

In the 1970s, the pricing of financial derivatives, such as option pricing, the Black-Scholes model, etc. These should have been learned by everyone in school. But you can think about it. Without the large-scale application and popularization of computers, a financial derivative product or a financial asset's quotation and pricing, it takes me more than ten minutes to twenty minutes or even thirty minutes, when it was calculated, how could I complete a quotation, a deal, a transaction? From 1985 to today, all the professional investors and investment institutions we refer to have just begun to use Peng Bo's terminals.

I, around 1997 or 1998, during the Asian financial crisis, began to use Peng Bo's terminals. I used the Reuters 3000, and later the Reuters Extra and the later Reuters Icon, so in other words, the era of computer, semiconductor, information technology, and data has created the later FICC. We have the categories of assets, the integration between assets, and cross-asset transactions, and hedge funds, and algorithmic trading, and the well-known, such as the Grand Prize, and so on. Without the progress in productivity, finance would remain at the level that many people think, like being a trader or a dealer, and a tout, in that era. Wall Street, J. P. Morgan became the entire financial derivatives' biggest leader, at that time, JPMorgan Chase hired top graduates from Cambridge, and one of them was the elder sister. She became the founder of the entire financial derivatives market, the FICC market, and she also transformed FICC business into the most profitable revenue stream for Wall Street's mainstream financial institutions.

Of course, this was inseparable from the 1970s and 1980s, the global upheavals of that era. Because you have to remember one thing: the origin of technological progress is also the origin of world turbulence. Therefore, technological progress at a certain stage will coincide with the turbulence of the world order. So in the 70s and 80s, we experienced the Cold War, the Middle East War, the dollar oil crisis, and the so-called surge in gold prices at that time, systematic decoupling, but human civilization always has opportunities and challenges. Risks and opportunities coexist. While the world order is in chaos, in fact, our computer, semiconductor, and information technology are rising again. I joked that I once said, during that time, there was a strange investment portfolio. It was that humanity had a future and humanity didn't have a future holding both at the same time.

You can think about the past. Not to mention ten years, which is a bit long. Since around 2019, you can check if what you have in hand is the future of humanity or assets that have no future for humanity. At the same time, they all received allowances. Of course, as of today, when all of us begin to realize that AI, artificial intelligence, data, computing power, these things will become the most important productive force in the next era. Our whole game is actually more than halfway through, and the whole first half is what people recognize as the traditional crypto circle.

Of course, why do I talk about this? Because you have to remember that nothing is static. Everything is in the process of development, constantly reconstructing. It keeps gaining rebirth. Therefore, I think this, this, this, this, we said at that time, it is highly likely that the moment I entered this circle, that is, the moment of FACC + C, I don't know if in the future in history, it will leave an important mark, just like J. P. Morgan and Billy Messner left an important mark of FICC back then, will he leave a significant milestone? That is, he is declaring the end of the early development stage of the past 10 to 15 years and the arrival of a new development stage. In these two stages, investors and participants, market systems, and rules of the game will undergo tremendous changes, or it is already undergoing tremendous changes.

So when I was interviewed by reporters just now, I said, Maybe in the past 15 years, many ways of thinking you are used to, that is, in the past 10 or 15 years, some paradigms you are familiar with, may undergo significant changes. Of course, if your years of experience in the traditional financial sector are sufficiently long, you actually know very well what is going to happen. Just like China once did, we have large-scale provincial financial offices that set up exchanges. We have a large amount of financial assets, but with the gradual enhancement of compliance, in simple terms, it will lead to survival of the fittest. As for the remaining ones, they will gradually develop into financial derivatives and be incorporated into financial institutions' asset portfolios. Our entire encrypted assets have actually gone through the same process.

You see, now people are probably used to thinking that commodities are common, but you should know that before the 1980s, financial derivatives of commodities were not popular at all, and most people were unable to truly trade what are now commonplace assets like copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and palm oil. People may now think that trading foreign exchange is very convenient, but back then, you would find that it was not available. Now we can easily trade government bonds, trade interest rate futures, which were not available back then. In fact, does this feeling resemble that of 2009? When you saw that we began to have stock index futures and options, and it felt like we began to have derivative products. If you have, you know, it's the same time point. So, the technology back then promoted the whole traditional finance towards the transformation and integration with FICC. And the same logic applies today. Data computing power, artificial intelligence, and underlying technology. This underlying technology is actually encryption technology or blockchain technology, with technology at the core, is restructuring finance, and our financial system is also undergoing restructuring. So in the past, we have been focusing on it, but to be honest, we won't participate, we won't participate at all. So I joked, maybe in the early days, it did need to talk about some beliefs, and it had to mention so-called fundamentalism, right? Everyone should have beliefs, but as real capital, it will not, in the early stage, excessively participate in such faith-based transactions. Only when it gradually grows up, and establishes certainty, will it be incorporated into the framework of asset management. For example, if in the past, we traded red beans, mung beans, or green soybeans, you would think that large financial institutions would consider it as one of their asset allocations? No, it's impossible. But today, we can make copper into futures, options, and ETFs, and incorporate it into the entire investment portfolio. This transformation, the ecosystem of the entire cryptocurrency circle is undergoing a scenario similar to this.

In 2022, for the first time, I, with some big names in the circle, truly began to have intersections. It's also a kind of fate. Fate was in 2021, at that time, when I was interviewed, I said this. At that time, Bitcoin was hovering around 70,000, but when the reporter asked me, I have a straightforward personality, so I said, It's very simple. According to our path framework, we really can't understand what exactly this asset of yours is, because all the beliefs you talk about, we don't recognize, we don't recognize that we have our own way of explaining. For example, about the maintenance of value, what is its function? So, we will use our framework and language to interpret it. But I think we don't have time yet, or it's not yet the time to intervene in such assets. But I say, we are indeed observing. I say, I'm still not quite clear about what you're talking about. But my current understanding and model of it are not yet fully formed. But I say that I have a feeling. He asked, What kind of feeling? I say, I have a feeling, because the U.S. CFTC financial regulation at that time had clearly defined it as a commodity, a tradable financial asset, a commodity, for me, I can simply and fully utilize this definition to understand one of its properties. I said at that time, Let me make a wild guess. If in 2022, with the significant tightening of liquidity, in our traditional asset circle, it is easy to see that overvalued assets will experience large-scale valuation-killing markets, leading to the same devaluation market trend and liquidity market trend. I said I'd venture a guess that it would drop by half. That's why later on, at the end of 2022, when it fell to twenty thousand, many people in the Bitcoin circle came to me, because they suddenly realized that maybe the times have changed. Of course, in fact, in the past few years, through communication, many of what I think are the real ones in the crypto field, are similar to the big names in traditional finance in the past. In the early days, everyone was actually quite rough. You can think about it, including those big names in China's commodity futures trading. In the early years, weren't they all rough? Didn't they all need to strive for a chance to turn a bicycle into a motorcycle? But those who can truly achieve the future are those who, when the time comes, not called transformation, but a turning point, it will quickly absorb and complete this turning point. And if still following the experience of those years, basically, as time goes on, you will be shaped by the times again, and gradually phased out by the times. From my personal observation, in 2025 and 2026, it may be the time in the field of crypto assets that we refer to. So that year, they came to me for communication, which is very simple, that is, learning from each other. You can tell me what you think it is, then from the perspective of real traditional finance, I will absorb and integrate, and then understand this matter. I will also tell you, based on our path logic, how to understand this kind of assets? Then everyone integrates and embraces it, and after several years, a new system has actually formed. In recent years, including the end of last year, from our perspective, it is a new round of liquidity tightening, leading to valuation crush tests. And it's once again, in the crypto asset circle, repeating the same story. What does this indicate? It shows that we are on the right track. This kind of inclusiveness and integration will eventually lead to a situation where there is no distinction between each other. That is to say, those traditional, for example, in the 1970s and 1980s, traditional Wall Street Wolf-like stock traders, and later those who engaged in large-scale asset management, ultimately became indistinguishable from each other. So, it must be FICCC in the future, there will be no more divisions between you and me.

Of course, for us, on the other hand, the most important thing is compliance. So by 2025, it is actually a crucial inaugural year. Whether it's the stablecoin bill or the digital assets we've seen, or encrypted assets, this so-called deterministic legislation, two important bills, actually have already told us the answer of the market. At this time, it's very simple, in the future, you will see Wall Street financial institutions, the former Traditional Financial Institutions, rapidly entering this market, just like diversifying foreign exchange reserves, it will diversify asset reserves and incorporate them. I will, from a single reserve asset, or trading asset, turn into diversified trading assets. Back then, I could add commodities, add exchange rates, and add interest rates. Today, I can add encrypted assets, but you need to remember one thing: when they are integrated, the market logic will declare the arrival of a new era, not the old era's habits.

Of course, we say since the 1980s, the proportion of retail investors in the US stock market has been gradually declining, which means that the proportion of retail investors directly participating in the market has also been gradually decreasing, while the proportion of financial institutions participating in the market has been gradually increasing. This will also happen in any market. From its early stage to maturity, it's an inevitable phase. Now, is it the answer? Yes, it is.

Stablecoins, by encrypting this technology, also known as blockchain technology, we can separate its payment function. So you can think about it, what exactly Bitcoin is. Just now a reporter asked me, is it a digital gold? I said this statement was somewhat controversial. Why? Because it depends on the interpreter. For example, you might tell me something, and I can immediately grasp what you're trying to say. But for ordinary investors, when you talk about this, his first thought is gold. So what exactly is gold? Right? You can only say that its definition is a valuable, maintainable, tradable commodity asset. This is a complete definition.

It can be said that some assets are worth maintaining, but they don't necessarily possess what we call large-scale financialization or tradability. Let me give you a simple example. For instance, my youngest son's AJ basketball shoes. Do they have any value? The understanding of value, many people have a huge deviation. For example, the figurines you buy, do they have any value? The Richard Mille watch you bought, does it have any value? First of all if it is a broad value, there is nothing wrong with it. Emotional value is also a kind of value, and so is the value of companionship. But, does it have the potential for large-scale financialization? Tradability is uncertain. As for the old-timers, the wood in your hands, is it valuable? How about walnuts? And the Clivia? You say they are worthless? That's not right. Because if we define value in a broad sense, then saying they are worthless is definitely incorrect. Saying they are valuable, if financialized and tradable, then in other words, it's also incorrect. Because it doesn't have a complete definition here, and it's crucial to have a comprehensive definition for any asset. The current standard definition of crypto assets is already very clear.

The development of Western society, in fact, has a clear core path: what is not prohibited by law, you can do first. So it encourages innovation, and encourages you to explore. You just do it, just like our financial derivatives in the past, people would say, Oh, my client has a demand for options, swaps, there is a demand for it, but we don't have the market for it, nor the regulation for it. What should we do? Just do it first. After it's done, compliance will follow. Layer upon layer of nesting will make it mature gradually. Therefore, the entire Western financial system has financial innovation followed by compliance, reaching a mature stage. The same logic applies to crypto assets. So now you have to judge, in 2025, whether financial regulation can keep up with the certainty of the answer has it been released yet? My answer is yes. So in the future, you will see technology applied to trading, and payments in the form of stablecoins. So, what will Bitcoin become? Right? A store of value, a financialized tradable asset, this is its full interest. Of course, I know that this definition will certainly make people from the previous era, with a fundamentalist mindset, unhappy. But what I want to tell you is that this is the era, and there's no way around it. So, this is a complete set of things that fit within the logical framework. At this point, Wall Street can fully intervene. It can fully intervene. Therefore, a new chapter is about to begin. I don't know. Today's speech of mine, will it go down in history? Of course I hope so. Of course I hope it will go down in history and draw everyone's reflection. I believe it can answer many people's question, that is, Mr. Fu, you are an old hand in FACC, why do you come to our new industry? I want to say that you are mature enough to be included in investment portfolios. Okay, I'll share this much with everyone. Thank you.