Why It's Almost Impossible to Become an F1 Driver

You don't think you're ever going to win the national lottery, right?

He won $343.8 million.

Or get hit by a falling airplane part, heck, even getting hit by lightning.

Yeah, these are all much more likely to happen to you than ever becoming a Formula One driver.

So while it's every other kid's childhood dream, getting to the top level of motorsport is near impossible.

And I have the numbers to back it up.

Let's face it, you probably had that dream once upon a time too.

I know I did, and while that didn't work out, my lack of talent and funding didn't help, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

Because you're about to see just how hard it truly is, these are the impossible odds of becoming a Formula One driver.

Chapter one, tip of the iceberg.

When you watch Formula One, you're drawn to all the good parts, the glory, the adrenaline, the action, and the mega stars that are the drivers, racing around the globe in the world's finest locations.

But have you ever stopped to think about what these drivers went through to get this far?

Of course, they need immense talent, dedication, and financial backing.

But as well as this, the competition they face while coming through the ranks, the bad luck, the setbacks, and the mental burdens are all hidden costs that a driver must pay to reach the top level.

It all starts with passion, but passion can only go so far.

Chapter two, karting kids.

It's no secret that motorsport is expensive.

Very expensive.

Whether you're racing at the top level, somewhere in the middle, or at the very bottom, costs add up pretty quickly.

And become a massive barrier to entry or progression.

So, when you think about it, this means that very few kids ever get the chance to even start.

The most beginner-friendly entry-level tier in the crazy world of motorsports is, of course, karting.

The typical age where drivers start is four or five years old.

Although Fernando Alonso started when he was three, and Nicholas Latifi started when he was 13.

Maybe the goat was just given all the other kids a head start.

Everything in karting is smaller, the vehicles, the engines, the tires, and the budgets.

It's why most drivers start here to test their enjoyment and their talent.

And it's also where their family test the limits of their bank accounts.

Because while it's the gateway to bigger and better categories of motorsports, it doesn't mean it's cheap.

Competitive carts cost thousands of dollars at entry level.

For example, a decent cart for a six to eight-year-old in the entry-level Bambino class will cost $3,000.

While a top-level senior class cart will cost over $10,000.

And then you need a van or trailer to transport it from the track, and you have to pay for track time on top of that.

Safety gear and maintenance costs aren't cheap either.

And championships cost money to enter.

And if you're being serious, new tires are a must for every weekend.

Or every session.

Add up every cost, and you'll realize why it's so difficult to even get started in motorsports.

It's estimated that a season of the FIA World Karting Championship costs top drivers over $200,000.

Yes, you heard that right, $200,000.

On the contrary, let's look at football.

It becomes clear why it's the most popular sport in the world.

It's because it's also the most accessible sport in the world.

All you have to do is pick something as a goal post, and, well, that's pretty much it.

But aspiring drivers don't have it so easy.

Take Esteban Ocon, for example, when he was up and coming, his father sold their house to buy a caravan and fund his karting career.

Lewis Hamilton's father remortgaged the house and put his family's life savings into Lewis's career.

It's very, very difficult to even start in karting alone.

And of the kids that do, very few of them are talented enough to be competitive in any way.

And even if you are talented enough, it is extremely likely you'll never make it out of karting.

But for the lucky ones that do, they're one step closer to F1.

Chapter three, the transition.

Pretty much all serious drivers try to get out of karting as soon as possible.

To start racing single-seater Formula cars.

But, of course, these are even more expensive.

The ultimate goal is F1, then you need to prepare yourself for this monumental challenge as well as possible.

Formula cars are a step in the right direction, as they're basically mini F1 cars with less power, less weight, and less downforce.

I know, it's a very rough description, but you get what I mean.

Drivers that transition to Formula cars usually do so at the age of 13 or 14.

Almost always after winning a lot of championships in karting first.

They take the skills they learned and honed in karting, hopefully giving them a solid baseline in the bigger machinery.

With the fundamentals down, the hard work begins.

Let's look at exactly what it takes.

Chapter four, Formula four.

Formula 4 is the first obvious stepping stone, offering young drivers the chance to cut their teeth in entry-level single seaters.

Current drivers such as Lando and Stroll have all competed in F4 machinery, helping them reach the top level.

There is no global F4 championship, as F4 is run on a per country per region basis.

The two leading F4 championships are the British F4 Championship and the Italian F4 Championship.

But at the moment, there are 17 different FIA sanctioned F4 championships around the globe, with even more outside the hands of the FIA.

Making 28 in total.

Still, with an average of 20 drivers on the grid of each championship, that equates to well over 560 drivers in F4 every year.

Between the ages of 8 and 40, the age range of most race car drivers.

There are around 5 billion people who may be interested in motorsports.

5 billion people, 560 seats.

So, those were the Formula 4 seats account for 0.00000000112% of their kids' age.

That is about a 1 in 9 million chance of making it to the very first level of open-wheel racing.

Anyway, the drivers that do make it are paying anywhere from 200 to $250,000 annually.

Yikes.

As well as that, the cars are much more difficult to drive.

The competition is stiffer, and everyone is trying to get sponsored to keep making the dream feasible.

It's crazy to think, but most drivers are already well on their way to plotting a path to F1 at this point.

Most know that an extremely small number of them will make it.

But they all believe that they'll be the one to break through.

Former IndyCar driver and regular F1 TV pundit James Hinchcliffe said that drivers almost need to be signed to, or at least noticed by, a Formula One team's young driver program by the age of 14 or 15 to have any real chance of a shot at F1.

So moving on to the next step requires something very special.

Chapter five, Formula 3.

Things get a bit more serious when Formula 3 enters the equation.

Cars are faster, more difficult to drive.

So, those not destined for F1, or anything close to it, get found out in F3 pretty quickly.

With that being said, F3 is also more prestigious.

With plenty of current and previous Formula One drivers impressing in this series in the past and putting themselves on the map, Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen all put themselves through the paces of the challenge of F3 and came out the other side.

Side note, they did it legitimately.

Unlike some.

Lance Stroll, we're looking at you.

But if you are genuinely impressive, you could jump straight to F1, Q Max Verstappen.

Who is the most recent driver to straight up skip F2.

But that's not exactly the norm.

The norm is that drivers need to beg, borrow, or steal anywhere from $700,000 to $1.2 million for a single season.

Remember, this is still only F3 we're talking about.

But one of the most coveted races in the whole world of motorsports is the Macau Grand Prix, an F3 race around the crazy streets of the Chinese region.

It's basically the Monaco Grand Prix, but for F3.

And while drivers like Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher won this race, made it to F1 and excelled when they got there, it's not a golden ticket to the top either.

Felix Rosenqvist, for example, won the race two years in a row and still couldn't find the money to move to Formula 2.

Let alone Formula 1.

But nothing is easy in motorsports, right?

Well, subscribing is, but apart from that, you'd be deluded to think that even getting past F3 is anything close to easy.

Because with roughly 500 drivers competing in some sort of F3 machinery every year, the chance of going further starts dwindling pretty quickly.

With just 17 F3 races in the entire world, an average field of 20 drivers leaves 340 seats at the third highest level.

The ones that make it this far are within the 0.0000000068%.

To put it simply, that's a 1 in almost 15 million chance of making it this far.

And the two hardest steps of the ladder are still ahead.

Chapter six, Formula 2.

Only 20 drivers make the F2 grid every year.

When drivers get there, they often stay for two or three seasons, meaning there are nowhere near 20 seats available to drivers coming from F3.

To make the grid, you've got to be on your A-game.

So, when a driver gets this far, they may feel like they're on the path to F1 glory, but in reality, they're still as far away as ever.

The competition is on another level.

The top 10 in qualifying in Bahrain, F2's first round this year, were separated by just 0.372 of a second.

The pole time in Bahrain was 1:41.915, while F3's was 1:46.431.

4 and a half seconds is a big jump in pace.

Especially when the races are longer too.

And you guessed it, the financial backing needed is on a whole another level too.

On top of this, landing yourself with a team that is good enough to even challenge for podiums.

Race wins and a championship is a massive challenge in itself, so you can see how this gets very difficult very quickly.

But is there a sure-fire way to impress the bosses in the F1 world?

And land yourself a full-time seat?

Would winning a few Formula 2 races, beating your teammates, and finishing high in the championship do it?

Surely winning the F2 Championship would be enough, right?

Well, not quite.

You see, the harshest part about all of this is that sometimes even the very best don't make it to Formula 1.

Even Formula 2 world champions, for example, the 2023 F2 champion was Frenchman Théo Pourchaire.

But there was no room on the F1 grid for him this year.

The 2022 champion was Felipe Drugovich, and he hasn't cracked F1 yet either.

So what hope does that leave for the rest of the grid?

Realistically, progressing from F2 to F1 is like scaling a skyscraper.

Packed with financial burdens, immense mental pressure, crazy competition, and the sobering truth.

So many young drivers want to achieve their motorsports dream of being a full-time F1 driver.

But only one or two have the chance to make it every year.

If even.

F2 campaigns are unreasonably costly.

Think upwards of $3 million per year.

But that'll only get you in the door.

A seat in a top team such as Prema or ART Grand Prix could run as high as $5 million, where they provide the driver with better engineering, support, and a higher chance of winning the championship and actualizing the F1 dream.

It makes the young and talented drivers sacrifice so much in their lives to keep the tiny hope of the F1 dream alive.

All the drivers are polished professionals, but one mistake in a race can take vital points from their title challenge.

Erasing F1 from the picture in a blink of an eye.

Chapter seven, beating the odds.

So, even though the chances are low, someone has to hit the jackpot.

Right?

Well, kind of.

See, the 2024 Formula 1 grid features the same 20 drivers as the end of the 2023 season.

This means that not even one new person on the entire globe has been given the luxury of joining what Lewis Hamilton called the billionaire boys club.

And it's not that 2024 was some crazy exception.

Because the average number of driver changes per year on the F1 grid is 1.33.

And it's one thing getting one of those seats, but it's another thing keeping it.

While the average career length is 10 years, there's plenty that don't even make it through one year.

Let alone 10.

Just ask Nyck de Vries, F1's most recent reject.

Nyck gave his all throughout his career, winning plenty of national and world championships in karting, the Formula 2 World Championship, and Formula E World Championship.

But in F1, he only lasted half a season after underperforming and getting the sack mid-season.

He's not the first to have his career at the top cut short either.

Drivers often have huge sponsorships behind them while coming up through the ranks, with the sponsors banking the driver's potential to get them to F1 so that they can pay back the investment they received.

Co-sponsors wasting tens of millions of dollars and drivers on future earnings deals.

Well, not earning anything in the future.

Chapter eight, the jackpot.

Based on all the numbers I've told you so far, it means that an average of 13.3 seats become available over a 10-year period.

So, with 13.3 seats in 5 billion people, what are the real odds of hitting the jackpot?

And becoming an F1 driver?

It's not a one in a million chance.

It's not even a one in 10 million chance.

Or a one in 100 million either for that matter.

It's a one in 375,939,850 chance.

Let that sink in.

To put that into perspective, the odds of winning the Powerball lottery jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million.

So, I'm sorry if you were thinking of chasing the F1 dream, but you have a better chance of winning the biggest lottery in the world than ever becoming a full-time F1 driver.

Chapter nine, conclusion.

To sum this all up, the chances of becoming an F1 driver are incomprehensibly small, infinitesimal, almost non-existent.

And basically impossible for mere mortals like us.

The road to the top is a long one, with not just twists and turns along the way, but potentially career-killing possibilities at every weekend.

But there is one way to become an F1 driver that makes it all a little bit easier.

I made a video on the incredible story of how Lance Stroll landed himself in F1.

So click here to watch that video now.

And don't forget to buy a lottery ticket tonight.