Speaker A
Hello and welcome to a special holiday edition of Power and Politics.
Political Pulse panel discusses Canada's 2025 election shakeup and key issues for Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Mark Carney’s leadership marks a significant shift for the Liberals and Canadian politics.
- Conservatives are in a weakened position after losing their polling lead and leader’s seat.
- NDP is at a crossroads with leadership and minimal parliamentary representation.
- Liberals must deliver concrete results in 2026 to maintain public goodwill and move toward a majority.
- The 2026 political environment will test party resilience and voter loyalty amid changing dynamics.
Summary
- 2025 Canadian federal election saw Liberals replace Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney, nearly winning a majority.
- Conservatives lost their lead and suffered a fourth consecutive defeat, with leader Pierre Poliev losing his seat.
- NDP faced worst election result with only seven MPs and is searching for a new leader after Jagmeet Singh's departure.
- Panelists include former NDP communications director Melanie Riche, ex-Liberal advisor Greg McKernan, and former Conservative campaign manager Fred Delore.
- Discussion focuses on the state of the three major parties and key political issues to watch in 2026.
- Liberals are navigating a minority Parliament, aiming for a majority, with Mark Carney as a new and credible leader.
- Conservatives face challenges rebuilding after losing their electoral momentum and leadership.
- NDP struggles with leadership transition and diminished parliamentary presence.
- Mark Carney’s leadership is seen as a fresh start but carries risks if expectations are not met.
- The political landscape is highly dynamic with shifting party identities and voter expectations.
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
I'm David Cochran.
Speaker A
2025 saw Canadian politics turn on its head, the Liberals said goodbye to Justin Trudeau.
Speaker A
And hello to Mark Carney.
Speaker A
And Carney led the party to a win in the federal election just three seats shy of a majority.
Speaker A
And as the Liberals welcomed their new leader, the Conservatives said goodbye to their double digit lead in the polls, what once looked like an inevitable election win became a fourth straight loss, one that ended in Conservative leader Pierre Poliev losing his seat in the House of Commons.
Speaker A
Meanwhile, the NDP has just seven MPs after its worst election result ever, with Jugmeet Singh gone, the party is now in search of its next leader.
Speaker A
Well, to dive into the year of head and check the political pulse of those three political parties, I'm joined by our three political insiders.
Speaker A
We've got Melanie Riche, she's a former communications director for the NDP, Greg McKernan is a former Liberal ministerial advisor.
Speaker A
And Fred Delore is a former Conservative campaign manager.
Speaker A
Good to see you all.
Speaker A
Thanks for spending some of your holiday time with us.
Speaker A
And and during this show, we're going to assess the state of each of their parties.
Speaker A
And then pick some issues to watch in 2026.
Speaker A
So let's start with the governing liberals.
Speaker B
I cannot be the one to carry the liberal standard into the next election.
Speaker C
I'm back home in Edmonton to declare my candidacy for leader of the Liberal Party.
Speaker D
Time to win.
Speaker C
I know we need change.
Speaker C
Big change.
Speaker C
I'm asking for your vote to stand up to Donald Trump.
Speaker D
Canada's next government will be a liberal government.
Speaker E
Will you be pursuing a formal governing pact of any kind with the NDP?
Speaker C
No.
Speaker E
And why not?
Speaker C
Why?
Speaker C
As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale.
Speaker C
We will only sign a deal that's a right deal, that's a good deal for Canada.
Speaker E
How many seats do you need to have a majority?
Speaker C
I can't remember.
Speaker C
So call your local MP if they're not a liberal and tell them.
Speaker C
Best deal in the world, strongest budget in the world.
Speaker C
Building, building with Alberta, building with Canada, building for today, but building very much for the future.
Speaker C
If there's not private sector proponent, there won't be a pipeline.
Speaker C
Our newest member of the Liberal Party, Michael Ma.
Speaker A
So what could next year look like for the Liberals?
Speaker A
Greg, let's start with you.
Speaker A
You're in a much different head space.
Speaker A
Than than a year ago.
Speaker A
All the liberals you talk to in these year end conversations are like that survivor contestant that won the challenge in week 10.
Speaker A
And they get to eat good food for the first time.
Speaker A
What what are you watching for your party for next year?
Speaker B
Well, I mean, there's a saying in politics.
Speaker B
A week is an eternity.
Speaker B
A year.
Speaker B
This is incredibly different.
Speaker B
space for the Liberals.
Speaker B
Um, there was a saying during the pandemic that, you know, governments were building the plane while flying it.
Speaker B
I think the Liberals, you know, changed pilots.
Speaker B
But it ended up being in very, very different looking plane.
Speaker B
Um, and a lot of responses to things that have been, um, you know, points of criticism towards the Liberals for a long time around things like, uh, you know, their the the country's ability to to build.
Speaker B
The country's ability to recognize that the economy has had a major threat thanks to the the President of the United States.
Speaker B
So incredible.
Speaker B
Incredibly.
Speaker B
Change.
Speaker B
Um, a lot of the things that we were hearing, you know, in 2024, I I spoke about how when I'd leave Ottawa, people would tell me very clearly if they, you know, they knew, you know, identified Liberal or they knew us from this panel that they weren't very happy with Justin Trudeau.
Speaker B
But they had concerns about Pierre Poliev.
Speaker B
Well, the the election of 2025 really, you know, made gave us proof of that.
Speaker A
Yeah, so Fred, it's a completely different political dynamic.
Speaker A
As, you know, Parliament shuts down and the year winds down in 2025.
Speaker A
I mean, what what do you think is the is the big thing for the Liberals looking ahead to 2026?
Speaker A
I mean, the hunt as we speak, as we speak, because this is taped.
Speaker A
They're still one seat short of a majority.
Speaker A
You know, I I guess that's the big target for them.
Speaker F
Well, yeah, they're in a situation right now in a minority Parliament that they're, you know, they're so close to that majority.
Speaker F
But going back to a year ago to Justin Trudeau and the decade that he was Prime Minister, like, this is not the Liberal Party of Justin Trudeau.
Speaker F
This is a complete shift.
Speaker F
And that's the the resiliency and the brand of the Liberal Party is fascinating.
Speaker F
That they're able to shift like that.
Speaker F
Like they don't hold values that are dear to themselves.
Speaker F
And that that is a sometimes in electoral system a benefit.
Speaker F
But also a risk.
Speaker F
Where does that go in the future?
Speaker F
Can they hold whatever coalition that they currently have together?
Speaker F
When you're not really rooted in anything.
Speaker A
Well, they're rooted in holding on to power and surviving.
Speaker A
Right, Mel, I mean, this is the criticism New Democrats and Conservatives who become more ideological over time have for the Liberals.
Speaker A
But it worked in 2025.
Speaker A
What what do you see looking ahead to the next year for them?
Speaker G
Yeah, it worked in 2025.
Speaker G
I think particularly because we had Donald Trump and this massive threat looming over us, and Mark Carney was the person who folks thought was the person to respond to that.
Speaker G
They knew who Pierre Poliev was, they didn't like him as much as maybe they did leading up to this for somebody to go up against Donald Trump.
Speaker G
They didn't think Jagmeet was credible to go up against Donald Trump.
Speaker G
And Mark Carney, not only seemed to be credible, people didn't actually know who he was, so all of their hopes, all of their dreams of who he could be.
Speaker G
Both as a Prime Minister, but also as somebody going up against Trump, they put on him, right?
Speaker G
I think the the challenge now is is we're coming close to a year of him being Prime Minister.
Speaker G
That hope starts to go away if you're not seeing concrete deliverables, if you're not seeing things shift with the US.
Speaker G
If you're not seeing these, you know, these big announcements, these big builds start to concretely impact your life.
Speaker G
I think the the the hope or the goodwill that people had and have consistently had with the Prime Minister.
Speaker G
Since, um, he's been elected as leader, but also since he won the election.
Speaker G
I think starts to go away if you're not seeing my life is is benefiting with him as Prime Minister.
Speaker G
And I think that's the the the reason that people liked Mark Carney is he kept saying enough talking, let's do.
Speaker G
What we'll we need to see the do.
Speaker A
Okay, I just want to go back to Fred on this.
Speaker A
Because Fred, you know, for those are all the vulnerabilities that that they face going into the next year.
Speaker A
But there needs to be a receptacle for the support.
Speaker A
Right, and and right now the he.
Speaker A
Mark Carney is still light years ahead of everybody else as Prime Minister.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Is it really just all about him right now?
Speaker F
It's absolutely him.
Speaker F
And it is the the idea of him.
Speaker F
It's not necessarily Mark Carney.
Speaker F
It's what Canadians think he could be.
Speaker F
They really don't know him.
Speaker F
They really he came out of.
Speaker F
I know we've been talking about him for a few years, but a lot of Canadians were just really introduced to him last year.
Speaker F
Or the beginning of this year.
Speaker F
Um, his his uh his resume is exciting for Canadians.
Speaker F
They look at him as someone who's incredibly accomplished, uh, you know, the fact that he was a a central banker.
Speaker F
And a a senior person at a maze at a major asset company, Brookfield.
Speaker F
That plays very, very well.
Speaker F
Canadians, uh, they're I think they're proud that we have a Prime Minister that has this type of background.
Speaker F
But it there's there's vulnerability there.
Speaker F
If he doesn't deliver, if he doesn't show something and that's where the the risks are.
Speaker F
If he doesn't deliver on everything that the the way of expectations currently are.
Speaker A
So, Greg, the Prime Minister unquestionably delivered for the Liberals in 2025.
Speaker A
There is this test in 2026 of the things he started to move on gaining traction quickly in 2026.
Speaker A
And delivering for Canadians.
Speaker A
What are you watching for there?
Speaker A
How quickly?
Speaker A
You know, does that need to happen?
Speaker B
I I think the near death experience of the Liberals is the sobering factor here.
Speaker B
If you're a a Liberal member of Parliament from some of those areas, if you had run under Justin Trudeau.
Speaker B
You probably wouldn't be in Parliament.
Speaker B
Pierre Poliev might have had a majority.
Speaker B
And what would have things looked like then?
Speaker B
I think the MOU.
Speaker B
The fact that the Conservatives want to leave out certain language was a bit of a lesson.
Speaker B
For some of the Liberals that might have been a bit nervous saying, you know, like I I'm not, you know, entirely happy with this.
Speaker B
But if it had been the Conservatives, this would have been terrible.
Speaker A
Okay, all right, up next, uh, we're going to talk about uh the Conservatives.
Speaker A
And what's in the mix for the official opposition in 2026.
Speaker A
Stay right there.
Speaker A
We just talked about the Liberals.
Speaker A
So let's turn to the Conservatives.
Speaker A
Leader Pierre Poliev will face a leadership review in the new year, this just months after two Conservative MPs crossed the floor to the Liberals.
Speaker A
And another announced he's quitting politics altogether.
Speaker H
If we had a carbon tax election now, we could elect a strong, stable, national majority government.
Speaker H
They're all just like Justin.
Speaker H
Who is ready to vote for change in Canada?
Speaker H
If you told me that we would get 41% of the vote and still not win, I would have said you're crazy.
Speaker H
What I think you're going to see from Mr. Carney is more big promises without any action.
Speaker H
I've never really been a spectator of the house.
Speaker H
Thank you very much to the great people of Battle River Crowfoot.
Speaker H
My mother taught me never to be late.
Speaker H
So please forgive me for my late arrival to this session.
Speaker H
He's even worse than Justin Trudeau.
Speaker H
There have been more tariffs and rising tariffs contrary to Mr. Carney's own promises.
Speaker H
Any of the scandals of the Trudeau era should have been involved.
Speaker H
Jail time, I mean, Trudeau broke the criminal code when he took a free vacation.
Speaker H
Isn't this pipeline going to be built in the year?
Speaker H
Never.
Speaker H
Here we are, no deal, no win, no elbows and no jobs.
Speaker A
All right, our party insiders are back, Melanie Riche, Greg McKernan and Fred Delore.
Speaker A
Um, Fred, 2025 did not go the way the Conservatives had hoped and and expected.
Speaker A
What do they need to do in 2026?
Speaker F
Uh, they need to find their voice.
Speaker F
And what actually that is.
Speaker F
What is the what are they standing for and how are they dealing with a Carney progressive conservative government?
Speaker F
Uh, sorry, Liberal, I guess you're calling it.
Speaker A
Yeah.
Speaker A
Come see, come see.
Speaker F
Um, we're in the situation where, you know, the Liberals have adopted to the to the moment.
Speaker F
Um, and I think the Conservatives are still trying to find who they are and how they deal with Carney.
Speaker F
Uh, I think what I said right after the election when we were on here, they need to be prosecuting him.
Speaker F
Looking at everything he's doing.
Speaker F
Go with that type of manager in the House of Commons.
Speaker F
Instead of we keep talking about Justin Trudeau.
Speaker F
We keep talking about.
Speaker F
They're stealing our ideas.
Speaker F
Uh, yeah, they're stealing them, but instead of, uh, acting as if.
Speaker F
Um, you know, they're they're not good ideas.
Speaker F
We should be saying, yeah, these were good ideas.
Speaker F
And they're taking them.
Speaker F
The the carbon tax comes to mind.
Speaker F
When Carney signed that out of existence on day one.
Speaker F
Uh, we went and the Conservatives went out.
Speaker F
And and tried to make this weird argument that it's not really gone, there's still a legislative process.
Speaker F
And Poliev should have done a victory lap on that.
Speaker F
Because it was Poliev who made carbon tax a bad word in this country.
Speaker F
He should have been doing that sort of thing.
Speaker F
Uh, so I think there's a lot of figuring out that has to happen.
Speaker F
And how you deal with Carney is got to be the the number one issue.
Speaker A
Yeah, Mel, Fred's on to something there.
Speaker A
There's a lot of backwards looking, like still litigating the last election.
Speaker A
And you see in the clip pack we played there, they they're all just like Justin, like completely missed where Mark Carney was going with this, right?
Speaker A
So where do they need to kind of settle as as, you know, Carney has, you know, moved to the right.
Speaker A
And settled in the center of the consensus.
Speaker A
Right.
Speaker G
I think Fred's exactly right.
Speaker G
Figure out what is it that you stand for these days.
Speaker G
What is the thing that you're talking about?
Speaker G
How are you, um, not necessarily making noise, because I don't think that's right.
Speaker G
But but what is it that you're talking about?
Speaker G
What are the values that you still stick to?
Speaker G
The going back in into the last election and to the last years just seems to remind folks that you lost and you didn't have what it took to become Prime Minister.
Speaker G
I I also think that, you know, when we talked about, um, the Prime Minister.
Speaker G
We talked about how he seems to be meeting the moment for where people are at.
Speaker G
And I think a lot of that is the seriousness of the Prime Minister.
Speaker G
I think he's he's a serious guy who is serious in the way that he talks.
Speaker G
And he doesn't do these like glib little jokes all the time.
Speaker G
And and, you know, the clip that we were seeing since the election.
Speaker G
It's like Pierre Poliev hasn't figured that out.
Speaker G
He's still the same guy.
Speaker G
Which like, okay, maybe that's who he is genuinely.
Speaker G
But the the quick little jokes or the unseriousness of this moment.
Speaker G
It's just seems like.
Speaker G
This isn't going to work.
Speaker G
And and worse, it's not going to work.
Speaker G
If you think you're going to try to run the same election and get the same result, which to their credit was a good result.
Speaker G
Even if they didn't pull off the win.
Speaker A
Right.
Speaker G
I think that that's a mistake.
Speaker G
I think you're up against a different leader.
Speaker G
You're up against a different feeling.
Speaker G
There were so many people who wanted change in the last election.
Speaker G
I don't know that people feel that way right now.
Speaker G
So to think that you're going to have, you know, the same luck the next, not luck, but to have the same circumstances next time.
Speaker G
I think is a mistake.
Speaker G
So figuring out what is it that you need to say going into the next one.
Speaker G
I think is really important.
Speaker A
Yeah, Canadians Greg clearly want to change in the dying days of the Trudeau era.
Speaker A
And Mark Carney is gave them change that they were comfortable with.
Speaker A
So so what what's your sense of what to expect in 2026 from Pierre Poliev as he faces a review?
Speaker A
And who knows if anyone else defects to the Liberals?
Speaker B
No.
Speaker B
So it's funny that strong, stable, national majority, that is a Stephen Harper line.
Speaker B
And it was funny in preparing for our our panel, I I wondered about that line if Carney was slowly working towards it.
Speaker B
Um, in mid-November, we were told by Conservative pundits and not our good friend Fred here.
Speaker B
That the floor crossing was over.
Speaker B
And that Liberals, it was overblown.
Speaker B
And Liberals were raising.
Speaker A
Liberals thought it was over too.
Speaker B
Well, I you know.
Speaker B
I I you know.
Speaker B
Never say never.
Speaker A
Yeah, I know.
Speaker B
And and the the cards were kept very close to the vest on Michael Ma's floor crossing.
Speaker B
So I would be, you know, for example.
Speaker B
The Conservative MP I just mentioned.
Speaker B
Uh, you know, very unhappy, um, not going to be a floor crosser.
Speaker B
For sure.
Speaker B
But what is what happens when you get into that booth?
Speaker B
The floor syndrome from the the PC leadership.
Speaker B
Of 1976, you know, the the number of declared delegates for Flora McDonald.
Speaker B
Did not match the vote.
Speaker B
That is always a risk.
Speaker A
Yeah, the people learned two things with Michael Ma.
Speaker A
There was an MP named Michael Ma because he's brand new and hadn't had profile.
Speaker A
And that he was crossing the floor.
Speaker A
Um, but you know, Fred, um, you know, the Harper slogan reference there.
Speaker A
Mark Carney governs a lot more like Stephen Harper than than he governed like Justin Trudeau.
Speaker A
And, you know, there's a quiet sort of ruthlessness there in sort of going, you know.
Speaker A
They're more playing catcher than pitcher on the floor crossings.
Speaker A
But now with one left, maybe that changes.
Speaker A
Do you think if it gets to there that Poliev can last until the next election?
Speaker A
Is there that kind of patience and staying power?
Speaker A
It's a tough spot for him to be in.
Speaker F
It's tough.
Speaker F
The membership seems to be very much with him.
Speaker F
The party is with him.
Speaker F
The caucus is like a massive percentage is with him.
Speaker F
I think it's up to him.
Speaker F
I think it's going to be Poliev looking at this.
Speaker F
If he does not lead the party into the next election, it'll ultimately be his decision.
Speaker F
Not anyone else's.
Speaker F
Now, it'll be influenced by what's going on.
Speaker F
And if Carney gets a majority government, uh, there's no question that is damaging.
Speaker F
He he.
Speaker F
If he gets it squarely from Conservatives crossing.
Speaker F
If a Dipper or a Bloquis cross, then maybe that changes the game a bit.
Speaker F
Uh, but it's certainly, uh, it's certainly damaging to Poliev when people are leaving.
Speaker F
That's there's there's no question that happens.
Speaker F
Um, but I do think it's going to come down to where he is in this.
Speaker F
And from all accounts, he he plans on going to the next election.
Speaker F
And he goes back to the point where, you know, he got over 40 some percent of the vote in the last election.
Speaker F
The last 10 days, I think I thought they campaigned very, very well.
Speaker F
So if he just thinks he can get back to that moment, back to a campaign.
Speaker F
Even if you got to go through all of the hardship, you got to go through all of this.
Speaker F
Now, if it's 2029, that's hard to.
Speaker A
Yeah, it's a different thing.
Speaker F
Leader of the opposition's tough.
Speaker F
It's tough to lose an election.
Speaker F
Uh, that you thought you were losing the whole time.
Speaker F
But to know that you were 30 points up at one point.
Speaker F
Then lost.
Speaker F
That's tough.
Speaker A
That yeah, that's tough to get over.
Speaker A
And look, he he's not doing interviews as Greg said with with Rosie and and people at the CBC.
Speaker A
If he's looking to go.
Speaker A
Right.
Speaker A
He's doing that because he's determined to stay.
Speaker A
All right, we've looked into our crystal balls for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Speaker A
Now, what's in the mix for the NDP in 2026?
Speaker A
Well, that party is still recovering from its worst election result in history.
Speaker A
And is in search of its next leader.
Speaker I
Our country works best when one party doesn't have all the power.
Speaker I
We're in it for you.
Speaker I
We need new Democrats now more than ever.
Speaker I
Obviously, I know this night is a disappointing night for New Democrats.
Speaker I
I'll be stepping down as party leader as soon as an interim leader can be appointed.
Speaker J
We are going to be voting no to the throne speech.
Speaker J
We've been very clear about the kinds of things that would have to be in that.
Speaker J
Legit to earn our support.
Speaker J
I look to the Carney government in 2026 to demonstrate that they understand.
Speaker J
They're in a minority Parliament.
Speaker J
You have two conservative parties in this in this country right now.
Speaker J
And only the New Democrats are, you know, bringing a progressive lens and voice.
Speaker K
I'm running to bring the NDP back to its roots.
Speaker K
We were built by farmers and urban workers coming together.
Speaker K
And we need to reconnect with both.
Speaker L
Swing the doors open and build a party for the 99%.
Speaker J
There's an opportunity right now for the NDP to reimagine.
Speaker J
Uh, what a bold progressive option looks like for Canadians.
Speaker A
All right, our party insiders are back, Melanie Riche, Greg McKernan and Fred Delore.
Speaker A
Um, Mel, a lot of soul searching going on in your party.
Speaker A
But a lot of space opened up on the left leaning part of the Canadian electorate.
Speaker A
Who do you think is going to emerge from the pack to to lead that?
Speaker G
That's a really great question.
Speaker G
Yeah, um, I'm not sure, I think, uh, obviously what we're seeing is there's maybe three top runners right now.
Speaker G
Between Avi Lewis, Heather McPherson and and Rob Ashton.
Speaker G
So I would assume that one of those folks, uh, leads.
Speaker G
I obviously, uh, uh, have my preferred person.
Speaker G
That I'll maybe keep it to myself for now.
Speaker G
Um, but but but I think what's important is is exactly what you talked about.
Speaker G
The space that is opening up.
Speaker G
And I would say I don't even think that it's just the, you know, quote unquote progressive space that's opening up.
Speaker G
I think that there's two spaces that are opening up.
Speaker G
I think, um, with, uh, the Prime Minister moving to the center, I think that there's a as an opportunity to be the progressive voice.
Speaker G
Uh, but I also think that with the Prime Minister being who he is and the things that he's talking about and the things that he's doing.
Speaker G
I think there's a massive opportunities to win that worker worker base back.
Speaker G
I think there's a massive opportunity to go get, you know, the roots of what our party was founded on.
Speaker G
And bring them back into the party.
Speaker G
I think that's one of the important parts of the soul searching.
Speaker G
Is how do we, um, talk to people in a way that they see themselves reflected.
Speaker G
They see themselves understood.
Speaker G
And I think with the Prime Minister who, um, folks really like because he's serious, because he has the background that he has, the resume that he has.
Speaker G
Um, but they can't really connect with the Prime Minister.
Speaker G
Because of that background.
Speaker G
They don't necessarily have the same background.
Speaker G
So I think that there's a massive opportunity to go talk to those folks.
Speaker G
And bring them back in.
Speaker G
I think Pierre Poliev was successful in doing that.
Speaker G
Leading up to the next election.
Speaker G
Until the election happened.
Speaker G
I think some of the candidates that we have in the leadership are able to talk to those folks.
Speaker G
And bring them back in.
Speaker G
So I think that's a massive opportunity.
Speaker G
On top of the progressive, um, voter base.
Speaker G
And I hope that that's what we see.
Speaker G
Um, coming out of this leadership race.
Speaker A
Right, so Greg, speaking of elections.
Speaker A
Your eyes on the midterm elections, which don't happen until November.
Speaker B
November 3rd, first Tuesday, traditionally doesn't go very well.
Speaker B
For the governing party, the the President.
Speaker B
It's a massive election.
Speaker B
Usually it's a third of the Senate, they'll be 35 actually this time.
Speaker B
Because of a couple of special appointments.
Speaker B
All the Democrats need to take over the the Senate.
Speaker B
Is uh four seats.
Speaker B
The house.
Speaker B
Three seats.
Speaker B
There's 39 governors elections up.
Speaker B
And we know that in December, Donald Trump was having a lot of trouble.
Speaker B
There was a really massive public reaction and even his own people.
Speaker B
That this really unkind things he said about the deaths of Rob Ryner.
Speaker B
And that is somebody that, you know, from baby boomers to millennials.
Speaker B
People would be familiar with.
Speaker B
It's amazing what what kind of breaks through.
Speaker B
But all of that counts on the Democrats getting their act together.
Speaker A
Right, and Fred, I mean, November.
Speaker A
Um, that's a long way away, that's as basically as much time as Trump has been President.
Speaker A
You know, if you put it in that mindset.
Speaker A
But it's a it's a key check on his power potentially.
Speaker F
Absolutely.
Speaker F
Um, what happens there is, you know, you elect the entire House of Representatives.
Speaker F
And if right now it is a Republican majority.
Speaker F
If it shifts to the Democrats, which the polls suggest it it will or may.
Speaker F
Uh, that could bind Trump in many ways.
Speaker F
And how he deals with things.
Speaker F
And it changes the game.
Speaker F
And you know, you made the comment about how Trump is the government.
Speaker F
In the US, their system is very different, their House of Representatives is the government as well.
Speaker F
They run things at a very different than we do here in Canada.
Speaker F
Where if the Democrats take control of the house.
Speaker F
They are in government now.
Speaker F
Uh, and that, you know, could really change the dynamic with Trump and all of his tariff issues that he's having around the world.
Speaker A
Yeah, but the executive orders, his failure to respect basic norms and jurisdiction, Mel still, I mean, it it could help.
Speaker A
But it's not going to solve the Trump challenge.
Speaker A
Right, no matter what happens.
Speaker G
Yeah, I feel like it's been a year of having my expectations of, okay, this is as bad as it's going to get.
Speaker G
And then something else happens.
Speaker G
So you almost get a little bit numb to everything that happens with with President Trump.
Speaker G
As it relates to Canada, as it relates to that relationship.
Speaker G
And and particularly trade.
Speaker G
Um, so I would hope that if if Democrats were able to be successful at midterms.
Speaker G
It it tempers it down a little bit.
Speaker G
Unfortunately, I think what we've seen is is just that this is somebody who's unpredictable.
Speaker G
And not necessarily reasonable.
Speaker G
And and does that make it worse?
Speaker G
Maybe.
Speaker G
Um, I hope not.
Speaker G
I hope that the Democrats are successful and things balance out a little bit.
Speaker G
As it relates to our relationship with them.
Speaker G
But I I have gotten my hopes up before.
Speaker G
As it relates to our relationship and I I don't want to break my own heart.
Speaker A
Yeah, no, you have to wonder what happens with ice and raids and polling stations and all of these things.
Speaker A
And and, you know, nothing is dramatic as that in Canada, Fred, but there there is a big election coming up in Quebec.
Speaker A
Paul Rodriguez resigning as as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, the Party Quebecois leading in the polls in that October vote.
Speaker A
Right.
Speaker F
Yeah, so this year we're going into a Quebec election.
Speaker F
The Party Quebecois over the last couple of decades really has been a party that competes for government.
Speaker F
Uh, just to try to lead the government.
Speaker F
To to govern the province.
Speaker F
But now they've put separatism back in the front window.
Speaker F
They've now made it very clear, the their new leader, uh, Plamondon, Saint-Pierre Plamondon.
Speaker F
That is at the core of what he wants to accomplish is bringing Quebec out of Canada.
Speaker F
And he's made it very clear that if he becomes Premier, uh, they are going to have a referendum.
Speaker F
Uh, as soon as possible, uh, and throw everything into chaos, uh, once again for the third time in this country.
Speaker A
Yeah, a sovereignty referendum potentially in 2027 if the PQ win in 2026.
Speaker A
Greg, uh, you know, an existential threat to Canada potentially.
Speaker B
Yeah, and for any Prime Minister at that time.
Speaker B
I'm saying that because currently we're in a minority.
Speaker B
Uh, you know, events.
Speaker B
Steer by events.
Speaker B
I was at the referendum rally in 1995.
Speaker B
I hoped we would not ever have to see something like that again.
Speaker B
Um.
Speaker B
And I I just hope that the Quebec Liberals can follow the example.
Speaker B
Of the Ontario PCs and do a leadership really, really quickly.
Speaker B
And turn things around.
Speaker B
Lots of things can happen.
Speaker B
But Fred rightly points out that this, you know, begs a lot of questions.
Speaker B
About what happens to our country's future if we're now talking about, you know, whether or not Quebec stays in Canada.
Speaker A
Yeah, Mel, what are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker G
Yeah, what's interesting is.
Speaker G
Is in this context, there isn't really a Quebec voice against separatism.
Speaker G
Particularly with with uh with Rodriguez resigning.
Speaker G
There isn't really anybody that can go up against Plamondon in this election in a credible way to take on that idea.
Speaker G
Because then you would maybe have an interesting debate or an interesting race to see where where Quebecers really feels.
Speaker G
And and the interesting thing about separatism in Quebec is it's not a, um, like a right-wing issue or a left-wing issue.
Speaker G
It's pretty like, uh.
Speaker A
It's identity.
Speaker G
It's identity.
Speaker G
Right.
Speaker G
So you see a lot of progressive voices, Quebec City, all of that is fascinating.
Speaker G
So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Speaker G
And it'll be interesting to see what what Prime Minister Mark Carney does in response.
Speaker G
Or or who he lines up as a champion to take on, you know, the the opposite of separating.
Speaker G
Um, in that in that conversation.
Speaker A
Yeah, like the Prime Minister, you know, we're skipping ahead a few steps here.
Speaker A
Right, but you know, as it exists right now, I mean, the Prime Minister obviously can't outsource national unity.
Speaker A
But, uh, you know, in 1995, Kretchen was a Quebecer, Paul Martin, you know, Lasalle, Jean Chare was the national Conservative leader.
Speaker A
You had those voices.
Speaker A
But also the media ecosystem was different.
Speaker A
There was no social media.
Speaker A
Right, the misinformation challenges and a binary referendum as we saw with Brexit comes into play.
Speaker A
And Fred, like, we have a President of the United States that would benefit from instability in Canada.
Speaker A
And go back to all the things 2025 was about.
Speaker A
Right.
Speaker F
Right, but go back to last year, the beginning of last year when Trump started talking about Canada.
Speaker F
It's a 51st state.
Speaker F
It was at a Montreal Canadians game where the O Canada broke out.
Speaker F
And we, you know, that was just randomly in a game.
Speaker F
So there is Canadian patriotism, which is very solid in Quebec.
Speaker F
And Trump helps that in that way.
Speaker F
And that he, you know, I think it calls to people that, hey.
Speaker F
We've got a great thing going on with this country.
Speaker F
So let's keep it.
Topics:Canada politics2025 federal electionMark CarneyJustin TrudeauPierre PolievNDP leadershipLiberal PartyConservative PartyCanadian ParliamentPower and Politics CBC
