Game Theory #18: Trump World Order — Transcript

About an hour ago, Donald Trump addressed the American people. This follows an address from Prime Minister Albanese of Australia to his people, as well as Prime Minister Starmer to the British people. And in both speeches by Starmer and Albanese, they said they said to the people, we know that fuel prices, gas prices are going up, and we should expect more pain, but we will do as much as we can to ensure that your wallet is not too impacted.

Donald Trump, in his address to the American people, basically said that this war will continue and America may start to bomb energy and oil infrastructure of Iran, okay? So let's listen to a few of his words.

Our economy is strong and improving by the day and it will soon be roaring back like never before. It will top the levels that it was a month ago. I made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age where they belong.

Okay. So he's basically saying that we're winning this war and we're we will bomb them to the Stone Age, which tells us he's actually not winning this war, okay? Now, um,

I also want to look at another um person who is Peter Hegseth.

new strategic map.

So, remember, this war in Iran, it's not ending. In fact, many people believe it's only starting to ramp up. So there are rumors that Donald Trump has already authorized the use of ground forces. And so we could see an invasion of Iran as early as this weekend, but certainly, definitely, um, this month, okay?

But while America is fighting this war in Iran, this is the Secretary of War, Peter Hegseth, and he's announced that America will control all North America.

From Greenland to the Gulf of America, to the Panama Canal and its surrounding countries. At the Department of War, we call this strategic map the Greater North America. Why? Because every sovereign nation and territory north of the Equator, from Greenland to Ecuador and from Alaska to Guyana, is not part of the Global South. It is the security perimeter in this great neighborhood that we all live in.

Okay. So basically, what he's saying is we will enforce the Monroe Doctrine in North America. So it sounds very strange to people in that Donald Trump is all over the place and he's idiotic, okay? So this is Iran, and everyone says that a ground invasion of Iran would be stupid.

Because it is much too large to invade. Right now, America has only about 50,000 troops in the Middle East, and the geography, the terrain makes it very hard to control, okay? So you have these mountains, the Zagros Mountains, which allows for the Iranians to hide and conduct guerrilla warfare and use drone strikes and artillery strikes. Um, and then you have the desert, which make which makes it very hard to cross, okay? And if they were to attack from here, from Iraq, um, they would have to face the mountains. If they were attacked from Pakistan, from the east, they would have to face deserts, okay? And if they were to attack from the south, they would face all these mountains. And also, you're far away from Tehran, which is ultimately your your objective. Okay? So there are there's lots of conversations about what the Americans are trying to do.

Right now, the consensus seems to be the Americans first want to control the Strait of Hormuz in order to elevate the strain on the global economy, okay? But as you can see from this map, first of all, the Strait, it's not very wide, and it's very close to the Iranian coastline and the mountains, so it's easy to attack from. And um, there are these and then the Iranians can put mines all around the Strait as well. So what everyone tells us is that an invasion of Iran would just be idiotic.

But at the same time, the Americans need to free up the Strait of Hormuz and allow for maritime navigation in order to stabilize the global economy, okay? Um, already we're seeing lots of signs that America is preparing for a long, long war. So there are already 50,000 troops in the Middle East, and a lot of them are will be deployed against Iran.

But also, there's a letter from Leonard Anderson to reserves, telling them to to say, telling them, we must get ready to deploy, fight, and win.

Okay? So not only have they sent 50,000 troops to the Middle East, but they're preparing to call up the reserves as well, okay? So this seems as though America is preparing for total war. Um, Polymarket is a very interesting place to understand how global events will turn out, okay? And so there are three indicators that in fact, a war is coming, a ground invasion is coming. First of all, the pizza index is exploding. What does this mean? It means that in the Pentagon, um, when they're preparing to launch a ground invasion, they need to work overtime. And so they call for pizza, okay? Uh, and and so pizza deliveries are going up. Gay bars are suddenly empty, okay? So when people are, you know, don't have much to do, they go and, you know, go on dates. The last is that people are making bets, large bets that a ground invasion will happen, okay? So these are people who have inside information, and so they go on Polymarket and make make a bet that this will happen, knowing it will happen. So this guy bet $200,000 that a ground invasion will happen, and if it turns out an invasion does happen, he will win over a million dollars. Okay? So these are three very good indicators that a ground invasion has been approved and it will happen very, very soon.

Okay. Um, Donald Trump himself has said many, many things, okay? So he said that, you know what, if we leave the Middle East, it's not our problem. We don't really care, okay?

And he also says that, hey, NATO, it's your responsibility to open the Strait of Hormuz because we told you so and because you need the oil. And of course, NATO is angry at Donald Trump because previously, Donald Trump threatened to take over Greenland, okay? So everything Donald Trump says is a moron. He doesn't plan ahead because before this war in Iran, where he needs the help of NATO, he was pissing off NATO by threatening to take over Greenland. So Donald Trump is all over the place. He's just a moron, right?

Okay. But let's just assume, okay, that the ground invasion goes ahead. What will happen? Well, as I've as I've predicted before, if a ground invasion were to go ahead, first of all, America would lose this war because the ground invasion would fail. The Iranians are fully prepared for a ground invasion. Second of all, if America loses this war, the American Empire would die because we'd be forced out of the Middle East. We would lose the petro dollar and the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Now, the third thing is the global economy will collapse. So clearly, Donald Trump is the worst president in human history. And he's a complete buffoon, right? Okay. But let's put our thinking caps on, okay? Let's use game theory and say, but what if for some strange reason, Donald Trump wants to lose this war in Iran? What if he wants the American Empire to collapse? What if Donald Trump wants to destroy the global economy? Then he'd be a genius, right? Right? He's a moron because he's going to destroy the American Empire, but if he actually wants to destroy the American Empire, then the man is the greatest American president ever, okay? Okay, so we're going to have a fun class today, and we're going to make the argument that in fact, Donald Trump is a genius.

That in fact, all this chaos, um, is purposeful. That there's actually a plan behind all this, okay? That's the argument I want to make to you, uh, today. Okay.

So, what is the plan? What is going on here? All right. So, first thing to notice is that the world gets 20% okay? 20% of its oil from the Middle East, okay? Primarily going to East Asia. So, India gets about 6% of its oil from the Middle East. Japan gets 75% of its oil from the Middle East. So, East Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East oil, okay? But as you can see, it also goes to Europe as well, and then also to the United States. All right? So, the world is dependent on the GCC oil.

If this war continues, if ground forces are used, then all the oil from the Middle East collapses, and JP Morgan has come out and said that by mid-April, the world will run out of oil, okay? So, this is a disaster for the world.

But it's not it's just much more than energy needs, okay? So, this by because Iran is constraining movement in the Strait of Hormuz, we're seeing we're seeing seven major shortages, okay? So, yes, we know oil and LNG um are being stopped, okay? But actually, the problem is much worse because look at phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, urea. This is food production, primarily used for fertilizers. In other words, if this war persists, not only will countries run out of energy, they'll also run out of food, okay? Also, look at this. Helium and sulfur are used for what? They're used for um semiconductors, the production of semiconductors. Used um helium and sulfuric acid in the production of semiconductors, which leads to AI, okay? So, in other words, this um war in the Middle East, it's it's impacting everything in the modern economy, okay? It's if this war continues, the global economy could collapse. But again, we're we're making the assumption that Donald Trump is a genius, and this is all part of his big plan, okay? So, what is his plan?

All right. So, okay, we know that there's a lot of oil in the Middle East, okay? But, you know, oil is not as rare as people think it is. There's also a lot of oil in Canada. Venezuela has the world's um largest oil reserves, okay? Uh, Russia also has a lot of oil. So, in other words, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, if this war in the GCC continues, it doesn't mean the world no longer has oil. It all it means is the world is now much more dependent on North America and Russia for oil. And so, the global economy now shifts over to North America and to Russia, okay? So, in other words, the United States starts a stupid war in the GCC, in the Middle East. It can't possibly win, but it still benefits because now the world is much more dependent on North America, okay? Why is Venezuela important? Because America just took over Venezuela in January. And look, Canada has a lot of oil, and Trump is threatening to take over Canada, okay? So, now let's look at who needs the oil.

Well, this map tells you that if you're in the red, you you consume more oil than you export. And who are these countries? Well, they're Europe, okay? And they are East Asia, as well as Australia, okay? So, yes, I understand Donald Trump is an idiot. Yes, I understand that he's going to lose this war in the Middle East. Yes, I understand that he's going to destroy the global economy, but for some strange reason, he benefits, and the United States benefits because now Europe and China, Japan, Australia, they're much more dependent on North America for resources, for food, for energy, okay?

Okay. All right. Food, okay? So, nitrogen is important for fertilizers, okay? You need nitrogen for fertilizers. Um, and as you can and what this map tells you is that if you are in the blue or the light blue, it means you produce more nitrogen than you need, so you export it. If you are not in the blue, then you're kind of screwed, okay? So, basically, um, this area, especially, uh, this area, okay? Uh, Europe is some parts of Europe, okay? So, now they need more nitrogen. And again, before, they were getting a lot of nitrogen, ammonia from the Middle East. And now, where where are they forced to get the nitrogen? From here and from here, okay? So, again, yes, I know Donald Trump is losing this war in the Middle East, but in the long term, America stands to benefit, okay?

All right. Last last thing I want to look at is water, okay? Water is important because water tells us which areas are the most stable. Basically, if you have a lot of water, you're less prone to conflict. But if you don't have that much water, then you're prone to conflict, okay? So, we looked at we looked at, so if you're in the dark blue, you're good, okay? Nothing to worry about. If you are in the light blue, you are in a lot of trouble, okay? So, if we look at this area, North America, pretty stable because lots and lots of fresh water, okay? If you look at Russia, pretty stable, lots and lots of um, uh, fresh water. But if you're Africa, you're in a lot of trouble. If you're Europe, you're in a lot of trouble. If you're Middle East, you're in a lot of trouble. If you are Southeast Asia, uh, you are not not much trouble, but you are in some trouble, okay? So, we we already see how this map tells us where in the future, basically, Russia and the United States, North America, are the most stable parts of the world with the most resources. And therefore, they are the most resilient, the most stable, okay? But if you go to Africa, Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia, these are points of conflict in the world. So, we're going to expect these places to become much more unstable over time. So, in other words, all the United States and Russia have have to do is maintain stability and then export resources to these places. And guess what? If they and then they make a lot of money for themselves, okay? So, again, I understand Donald Trump is an idiot. I understand this war in the Middle East is stupid, but from a long-term game theory perspective, the United States wins from this disaster, from a long-term perspective, okay?

Now, you look at this map, you think, well, China's pretty good too, right? Like China has a lot of fresh water. The problem with with China, though, is this. China sits on a lot of fresh water that Southeast Asia and India depends on, okay? So, a lot of water is in the Tibetan Plateau, and it flows downstream into India and in Southeast Asia. If there were drought using game theory, we could suspect that China might want to keep the water for itself, right? In which case, Southeast Asia and India would be very angry, okay? So, this is a potential flash point that we have to watch out for, okay? So, it seems like China is stable, but the surrounding areas are not so stable, and so China will be dragged into a conflict, okay?

All right. So, let's summarize what we've learned so far. So, these are the countries with the most oil reserves, okay? Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, United States, Russia, okay? All right. Now, what's interesting about this is this. This war in the Middle East is going to knock out the oil production of Saudi Arabia, of Iran, of Iraq, of UAE, of Kuwait, which leaves what? Which leaves, uh oh, Venezuela, Canada, and the United States, okay? North America, and Russia, okay?

Then let's look at who has to buy oil. All right, let's look at who who buys oil. Well, the United States consumes a lot of oil, but again, it has its own supply of oil. China needs to import a lot of its oil needs, okay? So, China imports about 75% of its oil needs. India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, okay? Um, Germany. All right, so China, India, Japan, South Korea, imports a lot of oil. And where does it get its oil from? The Middle East, right? So, if it can't get its oil from the Middle East, then these four countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, need would need to get the oil either from the United States or Russia, okay?

And what does this matter? Well, well, look look let's look at this. Let's look at who owns the most US Treasuries. Basically, if you own a lot of US Treasuries, it means that you are financing American debt. America right now is is $39 trillion in debt. That's a lot of money, but as long as people continue to buy US Treasuries, as long as people want to buy US Treasuries, it's not a problem, okay? It's a Ponzi scheme.

Okay. So, let's look at this. Who are the biggest um holders of US debt? Japan, China, right? Um, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, okay? So, this is all Asia. And we already said that Asia needs a lot of oil from the Middle East, right? Now, let let's look at uh others. United Kingdom is second, okay? Cayman Islands is basically just Europe as well. It's um it's a money laundering operation, okay? Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Ireland, Switzerland. These countries are Europe. And again, where do we say most oil from the GCC go? It goes to either East Asia or Europe. And now these stupid war in the Middle East, Asia and Europe are now forced to buy oil from either Russia or the United States. And this is important, okay? This is important because previously, there was a fear that these countries would would stop buying US Treasuries because America is too heavily in debt. The American American economy is too much of a Ponzi scheme. So, there's a great fear that Europe and Asia would would move away from the US dollar and more towards Swiss francs or gold, okay?