Speaker A
The world is out to screw us, we should screw them before they screw us.
Expert economist discusses Trump's tariff policies, US economic challenges, and political motives behind trade chaos.
Key Takeaways
- Trump's tariffs reflect deeper political and economic challenges in the US, especially income inequality.
- Economic policies are influenced by both political mandates and military-industrial considerations.
- The US faces a paradox of economic growth with stagnant or declining living standards for many citizens.
- Understanding complex economic issues requires continuous learning and narrative framing.
- Trade policies may be experimental responses to unresolved systemic problems rather than fully planned strategies.
What the video covers
- The US economy faces severe problems, including stagnant real wages for the bottom half of the population despite overall growth.
- Trump's tariff policies have generated significant revenue but have not improved living standards for many Americans.
- There is a political objective behind the tariffs, addressing income inequality and appealing to non-graduate white voters.
- Military and strategic objectives also influence trade policies, with emphasis on domestic production of key materials.
- The complexity of US economic and geopolitical shifts makes it difficult to discern clear solutions or patterns.
- The discussion highlights the importance of curiosity and narrative-building in understanding complex economic topics.
- Differences in life expectancy between graduate and non-graduate white men illustrate deep societal divides.
- Policy decisions may be reactive and experimental due to the lack of clear solutions to entrenched problems.
- Trump's trade policies are seen as part of a broader attempt to reshape the US economy and address voter concerns.
- The video includes insights on how information is consumed and synthesized to analyze global economic issues.
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
Speaker A
Abhi kya hai, jisko jo karna hai karo, there is a severe, severe problem in the US economy.
Speaker A
One guy has just gone crazy, generated about 79 billion dollars out of import tariffs.
Speaker A
Bottom of the population has not seen any improvement in standard of living.
Speaker A
That is the tariff shock, no?
Speaker A
So I should not be jealous, ki Neelkanth.
Speaker B
Neelkanth, welcome back.
Speaker A
Thank you.
Speaker B
I think you continue to be on demand on Sparx, for some reason I think the things that you have to say about, you know, what's happening in the country, world economy, I think people find it very insightful.
Speaker B
In fact, I was wondering, you karte kaise ho, like how do you have such encyclopedic knowledge about so many different topics?
Speaker B
And also a way of communicating, I mean not just to make you feel better because you showed up at 7:00 AM to record this.
Speaker B
So I need to keep you happy also for future episodes.
Speaker B
But still, a lot of people wonder that.
Speaker A
Um, so the first is to stay curious.
Speaker A
And that means that even as you're driving like a 15-minute distance, you should turn on your audible book.
Speaker A
Always, we've discussed this in your podcast before, always are hungry for a good book, a good podcast, a good Substack.
Speaker A
And, uh, and yeah, and then, uh,
Speaker A
as you know, when we both studied this, maybe not very well, but that's why I'm not still doing computers, but you know, when you are storing information,
Speaker A
patternless information is very hard to store, or it takes a lot of space.
Speaker A
So if you stitch a narrative around it, it's much more efficient.
Speaker A
So that's how I store information.
Speaker A
So it simplifies my brain and then there are cues and mnemonics that that help me then, you know, build the story as I go along.
Speaker A
So, I just curious.
Speaker B
See, one of the things I struggle with is, I also consume a lot of information.
Speaker B
But sochne ka time nahi milta hai.
Speaker B
And I feel like, in fact, I was talking to my son and realized ki main early in my teenage years, in 20s, main bahut sochta tha.
Speaker B
Khali hai, kuch hai nahi, na to phone hai, na kuch hai.
Speaker B
Abhi woh sochne ka time nahi milta hai, I wonder ki, you know, my ability to analyze and synthesize things,
Speaker B
is it getting compromised?
Speaker A
No, I think there is, see,
Speaker A
frankly, that's the problem with me as well.
Speaker A
I guess the difference between you and me is that your day job is very different.
Speaker A
My day job is to explain things to people.
Speaker B
So, sochne ka time milta hai.
Speaker A
Sochne ka time milta hai.
Speaker A
Aur rehearse ho jaati hai.
Speaker A
So you, you, once you're explaining to someone, you say things in a certain way.
Speaker A
And then while you're ending that, your brain is telling you, you know what, you could have done it better.
Speaker A
And so the next time you do it, it's tiring.
Speaker A
I don't think it's a very good use of time.
Speaker A
So what you're doing is much more efficient.
Speaker A
But, um, but yeah.
Speaker A
But so that rehearsal, I think, also helps.
Speaker B
Fair.
Speaker B
All right.
Speaker B
So I should not be jealous ki Neelkanth itni zyada insightful baatein kahan se leke aate hain.
Speaker A
Mera kaam hi hai.
Speaker A
Matlab, you see.
Speaker B
So, one area.
Speaker B
Which, you know, desperately need a lot of insight is, you know, what's happening with this whole Trump tariffs.
Speaker B
It's been like a daily soap opera and honestly, I personally, I felt at some point,
Speaker B
just getting tired of, you know, is this global geopolitics?
Speaker B
It just, you know, one guy has just gone crazy.
Speaker B
Is there a, you know, bigger picture behind all of this?
Speaker B
Very difficult to understand what is going on.
Speaker B
So what is your first take or kya chal raha hai, ye matlab, kyun itna dramatic tarike se kyun ho rahi hai cheezein?
Speaker A
So, first is that, uh,
Speaker A
you know, the large societies, when they have to change direction,
Speaker A
um,
Speaker A
how do you do it?
Speaker A
You either do you, you do it through bloodshed.
Speaker A
Um, or you elect a new leader who gets the message.
Speaker A
And in this case, I think the, the message from the electorate
Speaker A
is that there is a severe, severe problem in the US economy.
Speaker A
And as we discuss, you will see how serious those problems are.
Speaker A
So,
Speaker A
look, at this stage, I can see that there are some grand objectives.
Speaker A
So underneath all the statements and I'm also trying to prevent myself from seeing patterns where there are none.
Speaker A
Because sometimes, you know, in that simplification process, you, you end up creating things.
Speaker A
Hallucinate.
Speaker A
Uh, uh.
Speaker A
And, and so, but so therefore, I'm relying also on pronouncements.
Speaker A
So what has his Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin said?
Speaker A
His Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said.
Speaker A
Kevin Hassett, Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers.
Speaker A
Trump himself.
Speaker A
And you see their actions, you see some of these pronouncements.
Speaker A
And then you take a step back and say, okay.
Speaker A
So what exactly are these guys trying to solve?
Speaker A
And they may not have enunciated it.
Speaker A
You know.
Speaker A
Um, but.
Speaker A
So I think there are four objectives.
Speaker B
Let me just back up, these grand objectives are electorate's grand objective in some ways.
Speaker B
And these guys are verbalizing and acting on it.
Speaker B
Or electorate se mandate mil gaya hai.
Speaker B
Inke apne grand objectives hain.
Speaker A
No, you see, electorate aise saaf to bolti nahi hai.
Speaker A
Right?
Speaker A
So if, ek do percent vote swing se decision change ho jaata hai.
Speaker A
So aisa to koi aake batayega nahi ki bhai hum.
Speaker A
Collectively hum aapko ye bol rahe hain.
Speaker B
Sometimes hota hai ki like logo ko chahiye ki abhi immigration nahi hona chahiye.
Speaker B
Yaar hamara country itna hi chahte hain.
Speaker B
So that is a more popular.
Speaker A
Ha, that, you know, the number of people who don't like immigration is now meaningful enough.
Speaker A
That collectively we should do that.
Speaker A
Um.
Speaker A
And, and yeah.
Speaker A
So there is, so I think the first big objective is political.
Speaker A
Which is that the US has had a significant increase in income inequality.
Speaker A
So in the last 40 years,
Speaker A
median per capita incomes in the real basis, matlab inflation adjusted,
Speaker A
or wages on a real basis,
Speaker A
have barely grown.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So think about an economy which has gone from, you know, competing with Japan, being smaller than Europe, to now by a mile, the biggest economy in the world.
Speaker A
And yet, the bottom half of the population, this is the interesting thing about median versus averages.
Speaker A
The bottom of the population has not seen any improvement in standard of living.
Speaker A
Maybe marginal improvement in standard of living.
Speaker A
A second striking data point is that,
Speaker A
if you take a white man who's a graduate and a white man who's not a graduate,
Speaker A
the graduate white man's average life expectancy at birth is now 84 years.
Speaker A
So it has gone like this.
Speaker A
The average, the, the, the life expectancy at birth for the average white man is flat.
Speaker B
Wow.
Speaker A
It was going up a bit.
Speaker A
Then COVID ke beech mein gir gaya.
Speaker A
I haven't been able to find the data behind this, but I heard a quote somewhere that
Speaker A
the difference between a non-graduate white man and a graduate white man now is 17 years.
Speaker B
Wow, incredible.
Speaker A
So that tells you that there is a very deep-rooted political issue here.
Speaker A
And, and Trump swept the non-graduate white man vote.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Okay, so this is something that he feels is very important.
Speaker A
And needs to be addressed.
Speaker A
Now, some of these problems I'm going to state are so complex
Speaker A
that it's, it's, I don't think anyone has a solution.
Speaker A
Toh hota kya hai ki bhai ye nahi chal raha hai bhai.
Speaker A
Hum tod denge isko.
Speaker A
Ab dekhte hain kya banta hai.
Speaker A
I think that is how a lot of policy making happens.
Speaker A
And I'll, I'll, I've been thinking about it a lot.
Speaker A
There's fascinating stuff that has happened in the past.
Speaker A
So this is one objective.
Speaker A
So there's a political objective.
Speaker A
There is also a military objective, which frankly, the common man doesn't bother about too much.
Speaker A
But, uh, call it the deep state, call it the elites.
Speaker A
You know, whoever.
Speaker A
Uh.
Speaker A
So, so an 86,000 per capita GDP economy wanting to make steel,
Speaker A
wanting to make aluminum,
Speaker A
wanting to make penicillin,
Speaker A
saying that we don't make ships anymore.
Speaker A
If you had any doubts that this is preparation for war,
Speaker A
Peter Navarro, who's his trade adviser,
Speaker A
said when asked, why do you want to impose 25% duties on autos?
Speaker A
He said, oh, because they are the arsenal of democracy.
Speaker A
And this phrase is a very striking and very evocative phrase.
Speaker A
Because it was popularized by FDR, Franklin Roosevelt,
Speaker A
in a speech given on the 29th of December 1940.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So Churchill had been pestering him, pleading with him.
Speaker A
That look, please send me fighter aircraft.
Speaker A
In 1939, the US had made 60 fighter aircraft.
Speaker A
In that speech, Roosevelt said, we will use the arsenal of democracy
Speaker A
to make 60,000 aircraft.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
In 1943, they did that.
Speaker A
So when he gave that speech.
Speaker A
See, US has always been divided.
Speaker A
Always been chaotic, noisy.
Speaker A
So FDR had very left-wing views.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So people ridiculed him.
Speaker A
Ek gadha hai, matlab, ye kya, 60 banaye, 60,000 banayenge.
Speaker A
Dimag kharab hai inka.
Speaker A
They made it.
Speaker A
So in 1942, all the auto companies stopped making cars.
Speaker A
They started making tanks and aircraft and ammunition.
Speaker A
So, uh, they even started making gliders.
Speaker A
So in fact, there was one factory.
Speaker A
There's a book called The Arsenal of Democracy.
Speaker A
Which talks about Edsel Ford, who was the son of Henry Ford.
Speaker A
And how Henry Ford and Edsel Ford were fighting.
Speaker A
Henry Ford hated the guts of FDR.
Speaker B
Yeah.
Speaker A
Henry Ford had been given a medal of honor by Nazi Germany.
Speaker B
Oh.
Speaker A
Uh.
Speaker A
So you don't know whether he was really a pacifist or whether he.
Speaker B
Okay, he did not accept it.
Speaker A
He did.
Speaker A
He did.
Speaker A
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A
So, in fact, it is striking that Edsel Ford went and signed a contract.
Speaker A
That we will make so many fighter aircraft.
Speaker A
And so many will go to Britain, so many will go to the US.
Speaker A
And Henry forced him to renege.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Uh.
Speaker A
It was also, so the, the, the chaos that happens when you go into granular history is striking.
Speaker A
Anyway.
Speaker A
So the fact is that they think that auto manufacturing is critical.
Speaker B
But critical for what war?
Speaker B
I mean, what are they anticipating?
Speaker A
There's only one war that can be anticipated.
Speaker B
How realistic is that?
Speaker B
Is it?
Speaker A
I don't know.
Speaker A
See.
Speaker B
Is it mostly going to be trade war or is it?
Speaker A
No, no.
Speaker A
You don't want to make steel and aluminum for a trade war.
Speaker B
Preparing for it is still one thing.
Speaker B
Versus, you know, having a even, you know, minuscule odds, but realistic, you know, odds.
Speaker A
But odds hain na.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
See, what is, what is happening now?
Speaker A
You see what is happening in, in, uh,
Speaker A
you know, Israel suddenly wakes up and says, you know what?
Speaker A
Koi dekh to raha nahi hai.
Speaker A
Chalo, Gaza hum le lete hain.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
And jo India-Pakistan ka hua.
Speaker A
Theek.
Speaker A
Kisi ko nahi padi hai.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Pehle kya tha, there was an international order.
Speaker A
There was at least, these are all man-made human myths that we all believed in.
Speaker A
Ki was, ye karoge to international sanctions lagenge, ye lagenge.
Speaker A
Abhi kya hai, jisko jo karna hai karo.
Speaker B
I'll just come back to, you know, the, the bigger, you know, grand objectives that, you know, America might have.
Speaker A
In fact, in this arsenal of democracy.
Speaker A
And that tells you how hard it is to fight wars.
Speaker A
Uh, so when Hitler, I think, two weeks before he committed suicide,
Speaker A
so Hermann Goering, his acolyte,
Speaker A
mentioned that, uh, he was despondent.
Speaker A
There's no point shooting down American fighter aircraft.
Speaker A
Because they're like bees, there will be so many of them behind them.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Because the Americans just beat the stuffing out of them by just producing.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
You, you, in that book, there are, there are stories of like fleets of aircraft.
Speaker A
Like bees hitting German towns.
Speaker A
And, and so there was a time when America could barely manufacture any aircraft.
Speaker A
And then suddenly make 60,000 of them.
Speaker A
So then.
Speaker A
Can Pakistan do that?
Speaker A
Does it have the money to buy it?
Speaker A
It sold its ammunition to Ukraine to get some dollars.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Reasonably, they shouldn't be doing it.
Speaker A
But anyway.
Speaker A
So that's a very different debate.
Speaker A
But coming back to this.
Speaker A
There is a grand objective of that is political, which again, is a, is a very diffuse objective.
Speaker A
But there is a problem, which they need to solve, but it's a very serious problem.
Speaker A
There is a military objective that in case you get into a hot war,
Speaker A
how quickly can you prepare yourself and produce the stuff that is needed to fight a war?
Speaker B
Abhi to China se import karna padega.
Speaker A
Exactly.
Speaker A
Exactly.
Speaker B
And I.
Speaker A
I know.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
But that's what happened, right?
Speaker A
So, and, and this.
Speaker A
Might is right, you look at, look at how the.
Speaker B
It's always been right, yeah.
Speaker A
Yeah.
Speaker A
So, look at what happened.
Speaker A
So, the charade that there is a multilateral rules-based order,
Speaker A
was very helpful for getting the world together and reducing poverty and all of that.
Speaker A
And I'm hoping that we get to some other such charade.
Speaker A
But underneath that charade was might.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
And, and so look at the Bretton Woods Agreement.
Speaker A
Where the, the dollar became the central currency.
Speaker A
But then you think about ki sala Bretton Woods mein tha kaun?
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Italy, Germany, Japan had been beaten.
Speaker B
Yeah.
Speaker A
UK was completely broken.
Speaker B
Yeah.
Speaker A
And the number of times Churchill was pleading and begging, ki was ye de do, wo de do.
Speaker A
India, China were non-existent.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
It was only the US.
Speaker B
Yeah.
Speaker A
You see why, you know, Keynes kept opposing.
Speaker A
He said, this is not going to work.
Speaker A
And it didn't work.
Speaker A
The dollar peg didn't work.
Speaker A
And so it.
Speaker A
But no one listened to him.
Speaker A
71, the same.
Speaker A
And you see the comments, people think that Trump administration.
Speaker A
And somehow are, are unique in their sort of bad words or, or self-ish nature.
Speaker A
John Connally was the Treasury Secretary under Nixon.
Speaker A
Used words like, oh, you know, the world is out to screw us.
Speaker A
We should screw them before they screw us.
Speaker A
And that is why this, this, uh,
Speaker A
peg to gold was broken and all that.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
And, and they said the same things that they're saying now.
Speaker A
Which is that, look, you know, the dollar has been so
Speaker A
useful for the world, we are doing national service, we are doing international service by
Speaker A
allowing the currency to be used outside US borders.
Speaker A
And the world has benefited.
Speaker A
What do we gain out of it?
Speaker B
So, understood, this is the third grand objective.
Speaker A
The fourth is.
Speaker A
To get fiscal revenues.
Speaker A
This again is like the first.
Speaker A
See, the first two objectives you get, the third one also you get.
Speaker A
The fourth one, I don't even get the objective.
Speaker A
Uh, but they want to generate revenues out of this.
Speaker B
But most economists disagree that revenue, revenue nahi ho sakta hai aise.
Speaker A
Nahi, nahi, revenue to aayega.
Speaker A
It is not an economically efficient way to generate revenue.
Speaker A
So, so between 1866 and 1913, after the end of the Civil War to the start of the First World War,
Speaker A
50% of US federal fiscal revenues came from imports, import tariffs.
Speaker A
Income tax had been introduced shortly during the Civil War.
Speaker A
Uh, but then it was removed.
Speaker A
And it was introduced at 1% in 1915.
Speaker A
So, uh, the Trump administration and a lot of the believers and thinkers behind it,
Speaker A
uh, are absolutely fascinated by the pre-World Wars,
Speaker A
uh, isolation of the US.
Speaker A
Ki was apna kaam karo.
Speaker A
Ye jaake duniya mein dada banne ka hai ki bhai hamari baat suno, hamara ye karo.
Speaker A
Wo sunani unko hai, lekin ki global policeman.
Speaker A
It's too expensive.
Speaker A
Can't afford it.
Speaker A
Which someone would have said that this should have been done after 1990.
Speaker A
Ek baar ab USR khatam ho gaya.
Speaker A
Toh aapko withdraw kar lena tha.
Speaker A
Aapne kiya nahi.
Speaker A
So, so this is the.
Speaker A
So anyway, so they want to generate revenue out of it.
Speaker A
And they want to use this to give a tax cut to the people.
Speaker A
So they are saying that dekhiye, ye hum jo foreign evil manufacturers hain,
Speaker A
we will charge them something to access the great American market.
Speaker A
And the money that we make out of it, we'll give a tax cut to the low-income earners in the US.
Speaker A
That's the grand plan.
Speaker A
Now, in 2024, they generated about 79 billion dollars out of import tariffs.
Speaker B
Only 79.
Speaker A
Exactly.
Speaker A
And.
Speaker B
30 trillion dollar economy.
Speaker A
30 trillion dollar economy.
Speaker A
Their federal receipts are 5 trillion.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Their fiscal deficit is now this year going to be 2.2, 2.3 trillion.
Speaker A
Usme, there was 79, but what they, they, I think,
Speaker A
will end up with is an extra 400, 500 billion dollars.
Speaker B
This year.
Speaker A
Because that is the level of the tariff shock, no?
Speaker A
This year hoga ki nahi pata nahi.
Speaker A
But because there's front loading and, you know, so there are lots of things.
Speaker A
But and half the year is gone because their year is October to September.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
But on an annualized basis.
Speaker A
So if you put 10% baseline tariffs on everything,
Speaker A
toh pehle 2.3 tha.
Speaker A
They import about 3.5 trillion.
Speaker A
Toh 79 billion is 2.3% of that.
Speaker A
If your baseline tariff is 10, toh 4x to aise hi ho gaya.
Speaker A
Uske upar aapne steel, aluminum, semiconductors, falana dhimka, autos.
Speaker A
Sab pe 25 laga diye.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
Demand will also drop.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
I know.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Sensitivity, I mean, so, you know, people whose job is to do this.
Speaker A
And so their estimates are that 400, 500 mil jaana chahiye.
Speaker A
Now.
Speaker A
The reciprocal tariffs, especially against China, are effectively an embargo.
Speaker B
Correct.
Speaker A
Usme to import hi nahi hoga.
Speaker A
Correct.
Speaker A
So those things will happen.
Speaker A
But.
Speaker A
Anyway.
Speaker A
But, you know, so these are the objectives.
Speaker A
Now, the challenge is that there's no strategy.
Speaker B
See.
Speaker A
Ki aapko ye sab karna hai, but kaise karein, kaun batayega?
Speaker A
Kisi ko decide karna hai.
Speaker A
Toh jaise wo ChatGPT ke basis pe reciprocal tariffs banaye.
Speaker A
But, but see.
Speaker A
That is how decision making has to happen.
Speaker A
See, if you read this Keynes' book, fantastic book, the Economic Consequences of the Peace.
Speaker A
Basically, where Germany was hammered.
Speaker A
And look at the data it's throwing.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So the French President is, uh,
Speaker A
obsessed with Germany as of 1870.
Speaker A
Arre yaar.
Speaker A
After 1870 to 1919, their population is up 70%.
Speaker A
Their steel output is up some 200, 300% or 500%.
Speaker A
How can you push them back to that same level?
Speaker A
So he gives this, for example, there are many such data points.
Speaker A
That, you know, Germany produced 190 million tons of coal.
Speaker A
These guys said, oh, your war, our coal mines are destroyed.
Speaker A
So you have to give us some 25 or 40 million tons of coal.
Speaker A
They said, was Germany's mines are also destroyed.
Speaker A
They have fewer people.
Speaker A
Their shifts are shorter.
Speaker A
Their production will drop to 110.
Speaker A
Aapko 40 de denge, toh wo kya karenge?
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
But, you know, how this was being decided?
Speaker A
So the French President is obsessed because they were the most affected.
Speaker A
Inka neighbor hai.
Speaker A
Matlab, kaun sa, matlab, continent mein toh wahi hain.
Speaker A
UK after a while lost interest.
Speaker A
Woodrow Wilson was especially a professor.
Speaker A
He had no negotiation experience.
Speaker A
Toh wo koi letter leke aate the, uske beech mein discussion hota tha.
Speaker A
And France would think that you start with a very extreme view.
Speaker A
Toh negotiate hoke idhar aayega.
Speaker A
Koi oppose hi nahi kar raha tha.
Speaker A
Toh wahi extreme view push ho gaya.
Speaker A
World is full of these things.
Speaker A
You know, after the Second World War,
Speaker A
the number of Germans, see, we have not seen or read enough about this side of history.
Speaker A
Germans were pushed out of Poland.
Speaker A
See, remember that.
Speaker A
It's a, it's a flat land, right?
Speaker A
I mean, people keep moving around.
Speaker A
So they were pushed out of Poland and all of most of Eastern Europe.
Speaker A
Uh, the Jews were kind of going to the US.
Speaker A
So the Americans said, it was enough.
Speaker A
We, we, aur nahi le sakte.
Speaker A
So, let's push them to Israel.
Speaker A
There was a lot of opposition there, so the US President accepted.
Speaker A
Ki chalo, Palestine maan lete hain.
Speaker A
So, when these changes happen,
Speaker A
someone has to decide.
Speaker A
And that person is not the best and the most informed.
Speaker A
So, isliye strategy nahi hai.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
I think all they will do and they are doing is that, chalo, ye karke dekhte hain.
Speaker A
Agar kuch phoota nahi, toh iske baad phir kuch aur karenge.
Speaker B
So what is grand objectives without grand strategy?
Speaker B
It's just wishful thinking and, you know, just dreaming.
Speaker B
It's like, it's.
Speaker B
Grand objective also requires some concerted effort.
Speaker B
Or you're saying that you just destroy the, the way things work.
Speaker B
And most likely it will, you know.
Speaker A
Exactly.
Speaker A
So they know.
Speaker A
Ki ye nahi chal raha hai bhai.
Speaker A
Ab kya chalega, wo samay batayega.
Speaker A
And so when people question,
Speaker A
that aapne allies pe kyun duty laga di?
Speaker A
Aap, you're throwing them into the arms of China.
Speaker A
So if you look at the 62 trillion dollars of liabilities that they have.
Speaker A
Obviously, foreigners that own 62 trillion dollars of US assets.
Speaker B
Mostly with allies.
Speaker A
So it is.
Speaker A
Jaise abhi Taiwan dollar ka hua.
Speaker A
Suddenly 3% move kar gaya, agle din phir 2% move kar gaya.
Speaker A
People say now 1.7 trillion dollars ke reserves hain wahan pe.
Speaker A
Current account surplus kuch, kuch saal mein 12-15% hai of GDP.
Speaker A
So, Vietnamese dong.
Speaker A
USD VND has been flat.
Speaker A
Through a spectacular growth in Vietnamese exports.
Speaker B
So somewhere you are saying almost, you know, the genius of Trump.
Speaker B
May be difficult to appreciate.
Speaker B
But it's going somewhere, there's no genius there.
Speaker A
He's just realized, he's a good politician.
Speaker A
See, as a human being,
Speaker A
may or may not like him.
Speaker A
But I think he's a good politician.
Speaker A
He's understood that there are deep-rooted problems.
Speaker B
But if through whatever his chaotic actions, if, you know, America were to make progress towards some of these grand objectives.
Speaker B
That's exactly what he's saying.
Speaker B
Make America great again.
Speaker B
Looks like this is all.
Speaker A
So he wants to make America great again.
Speaker A
The, the problem is that the tools he's using
Speaker A
are terrible.
Speaker B
Terrible for who?
Speaker A
For everyone.
Speaker B
Including for Americans.
Speaker A
Including for Americans.
Speaker B
Including the Americans, you know, you mentioned those.
Speaker B
Who were left out of this whole economic development.
Speaker B
And incomes are flat.
Speaker A
Is that for them as well?
Speaker A
Exactly.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
So think about manufacturing.
Speaker A
See, manufacturing for a healthy economy is very important.
Speaker A
Manufacturing to create manufacturing jobs because the non-graduate white man cannot do non-manufacturing jobs.
Speaker A
That's the assumption he's making.
Speaker A
Look, a large part of the job losses in manufacturing have not happened because of China.
Speaker A
China has clearly, I think, misused the global trading norms and, you know, manipulated things.
Speaker A
And frankly.
Speaker A
I mean, I, I do think that some checks and balances need to be brought there.
Speaker A
But I don't think manufacturing will create the as many jobs.
Speaker A
As are needed to, to lift the incomes here.
Speaker B
Hmm.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Uh.
Speaker A
But anyway, but, you know, so hamare aapke sochne se kuch nahi hone wala.
Speaker A
Uh, unke paas strategy hai ya nahi hai, usse koi antar nahi padta.
Speaker A
Wo hain American President.
Speaker B
You have to deal with this.
Speaker A
Wo hain American President.
Speaker A
Aur aise hi hota hai.
Speaker A
See, the, jo aap kisi ko, ab Kennedy ko bana diya aapne.
Speaker A
Matlab, I mean, peeche dekh ke lagta hai ki usne ye kiya, usne wo kiya.
Speaker A
But bhai, wo log toh wahi hain.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
Kissinger bahut bade scholar the.
Speaker A
Aur kafi unhone geopolitics padhi hui thi.
Speaker A
But frankly, he had his own biases.
Speaker A
So.
Speaker A
So anyway.
Speaker A
The point is, this is how the world runs.
Speaker A
Um, it is important to understand, these are the broad contours of how things are likely to shape up.
Speaker A
Because the objectives will not be lost.
Speaker A
The thing is, ki ye strategy nahi chalegi.
Speaker A
Kuch aur strategy lagayenge.
Speaker B
So hopefully this conversation will give people some relief from all this drama from your Trump tariffs.
Speaker A
Thank you.
Speaker A
Thank you.
Topics:Trump tariffsUS economyincome inequalitytrade policyeconomic challengespolitical economymilitary strategyglobal geopoliticseconomic analysisSparX Mukesh Bansal
