Jeffrey Gundlach Says Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued | Odd Lots

I have a 70% hit rate. I've got a long enough career in enough strategies where it's statistically significant, and I have a 70% hit rate, which means I'm right 70% of the time, which means I'm wrong 30% of the time. So, I've been at this for over 40 years, so I've been wrong for more than 12 years.

Right?

But thank God they haven't been in a row.

Really, three years is when everyone pulls the plug. If you're if you're wrong, if you underperform your one, your two and your three, you're gone. You know, if you're if you're wrong five years in a row, they they shut your Janice unconstrained bond fund.

Because you can't have sequential years of out performance like that.

It's a very specific example, Jeff. I wonder where that came from.

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Joe, we are still in celebratory mode.

Yes.

Ten year, ten year anniversary.

It's ten year anniversary month, really. And even next month, kind of ten year anniversary month. So we can just extend this for a long time.

We could just make this, well, we should have made 2025 the Odd Lots ten year anniversary year.

Yeah, yeah.

But we're almost at the end of the year, so we failed in that respect.

But obviously, we're sort of reflecting on the past decade or so at Odd Lots and things that have or haven't changed in markets.

Yeah.

And one thing I've been thinking about a lot is what's been going on in the bond market.

Yeah, you can't, well, I think, look, there is nothing that's more different in 2025 versus 2015 than what's going on in fixed income, right?

So, you say that, and it is true, you know, if you look at, if you look at the benchmark ten year yield, okay, sure, we're at 4% now, above 4% and in 2015, we were at like 2%, right?

That's changed, and we went through inflation, which is something we hadn't experienced for a pretty long time in, you know, previous years.

That's right.

But I also feel like it's changed, but a lot of it hasn't. A lot of the discussions haven't changed. If I think about what we were discussing, uh, back in 2015, it was stuff like, who's going to buy US Treasuries?

Sure.

Who's going to fund the US deficit? Bond vigilantes. I mean, how many years have we been talking about bond vigilantes now? Uh, the credit market, it was whether or not investors are being adequately compensated for the risk they're taking on. And the funny thing is now, you know, if you look at spreads on junk rated bonds, if if you didn't think they were being adequately compensated at like 7.2% in 2015, I wonder what you think when you look at spreads of 6.4% in 2025.