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February 1933, the United States is still suffering the effects of the Great Depression.
Explores a 1934 alternate history where Roosevelt is assassinated, leading to a fascist-leaning US under General Hugh Johnson amid Great Depression turmoil.
Key Takeaways
- The assassination of Roosevelt drastically alters US history, preventing the full implementation of the New Deal.
- Weak leadership during crises can lead to social unrest and create openings for authoritarian movements.
- Economic desperation and fear of communism/anarchy can drive public support toward strongman rule.
- Powerful elites and military figures can orchestrate and sustain authoritarian regimes under the guise of restoring order.
- Martial law and suppression of dissent are common tools in establishing fascist governments.
Summary
- In 1933, the US is in deep economic crisis due to the Great Depression with high unemployment and bank failures.
- Roosevelt wins the 1932 election promising the New Deal, but is assassinated shortly after by Giuseppe Zangara.
- Vice President John Garner becomes president but lacks Roosevelt's leadership and charisma, leading to ineffective economic recovery.
- Social unrest grows with strikes, violent clashes, and terrorist bombings attributed to anarchists.
- WWI veterans organize massive protests in Washington demanding strong leadership to resolve the crisis.
- Garner appoints General Hugh Johnson as General Secretary with sweeping powers, including military command and legislative veto.
- The American Liberty League, composed of elite businessmen, bankers, and military leaders, advises and controls Johnson.
- Martial law is declared, anarchist and communist unions are banned, and reforms are introduced to stabilize the economy.
- A paramilitary force of veterans remains as a security force loyal to the General Secretary.
- The video explores the rise of a fascist-style authoritarian regime in the US as a response to economic and social instability.
Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown
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A severe economic recession that began in 1929.
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There is poverty, one in four citizens is unemployed, and the number is increasing.
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Hundreds of thousands of Americans are homeless.
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More than 5,000 banks have failed.
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Industrial production drops by 50%.
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Roosevelt has just won the US presidential election, defeating Hoover in November 1932.
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His recipe for getting out of the economic depression is the so-called New Deal.
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Increase in public spending, a jobs program for the unemployed.
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Incentives to cut agricultural production, financial reforms.
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February 15th, 1933, 9:35 p.m.
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Roosevelt is giving a speech at night from the back seat of an open-top touring car in Miami, Florida.
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Giuseppe Zangara, a deranged 32-year-old immigrant from Southern Italy.
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Joins the crowd of spectators.
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He is armed with a 7.65 mm revolver that he had purchased a couple of days earlier.
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Then coming within 7 meters of Roosevelt, he shouts, too many people are starving.
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And fires five shots.
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He missed his target and instead killed Anton Cermak, the mayor of Chicago.
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The intended target, Roosevelt, was unharmed.
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Zangara was executed on March 20th, 1933.
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Indeed, Roosevelt was very lucky.
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Giuseppe Zangara knew firearms, having fought for years with the Italian army in the Alps during the First World War.
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What if Zangara had managed to kill Roosevelt?
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February 17th, 1933, due to his wounds, Roosevelt died at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami at the age of 51.
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What happens now?
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Vice President John Garner becomes the new American president.
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Garner is cautious in his approach to economic recovery.
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Only part of Roosevelt's New Deal interventions will be applied.
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No agricultural adjustment law, which paid farmers to cut their production.
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No system of old-age pensions and other forms of social assistance.
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The impact on the American economy decreases.
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More importantly, Garner lacks Roosevelt's charisma, leadership, and personality.
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The country will not rally behind Garner in the same way, making it harder to pass laws and implement policies.
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While many Americans are desperate.
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Someone sees the possibility of taking power.
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From the first days of his election, a period of instability began.
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There are hundreds of strikes that block much of the already struggling American economy.
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Often with no result other than many deaths, as there are violent clashes between strikers and police.
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With police firing into crowds of strikers.
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Communist trade unions gain support, creating concerns among employers.
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The American economy began a slow recovery in 1933.
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But people are not happy.
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Mussolini in Italy seems to work miracles at the speed of light.
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In Germany, Hitler took control of a country in similar conditions to Bolivia.
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And transformed it into a world power.
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Many wonder what would it be like to have our authoritative strong man in the White House.
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Newspapers describe the economic situation as catastrophic.
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People think Garner isn't doing anything.
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They see him as inept, incapable.
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There are no expectations of improvement in the economy.
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Positive expectations are one of the most important factors in emerging from a recession.
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There is a series of terrorist attacks and bombings.
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The perpetrators are often never caught.
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Anarchists are suspected.
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The governor of Idaho is killed by a bomb in front of his house.
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The Los Angeles Times building in Los Angeles is destroyed by dynamite, killing 21 workers.
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In October, a bomb explodes in the waiting room of the US Senate.
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In this situation, on December 15th, 1933, hundreds of thousands of World War I veterans gathered in Washington.
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To protest against a government considered incompetent and inactive.
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They are organized by the American Legion, a patriotic organization of US war veterans.
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Many veterans had been out of work since the start of the Great Depression.
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The event has financial support from the Union Banking Corporation, which provided $3 million to pay for travel, food, and other expenses for the veterans.
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But behind Union Bank, there is a group that controls assets worth $40 billion, today around $800 billion.
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They also have guns supplied by Remington Arms.
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So they have men, weapons, and money.
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The three elements that determine the success of revolutions.
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From early morning, this massive army of veterans marches through the streets of Washington.
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Before sunset, the key points of Washington are occupied.
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Bridges, train station.
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Squares.
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They pitch tents in front of the White House, Congress.
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The Supreme Court.
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President Garner orders the protesters removed, but US Army cavalry troops under the command of General Douglas MacArthur remain in their barracks.
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The protesters are calling for a strong man to resolve the situation.
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Similar demonstrations begin in other American cities.
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Indianapolis.
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San Francisco, Charlotte, Seattle, Boston, New York.
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The next day their leaders, among them, several former military and American Legion leaders, make their demands.
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They don't want to depose Garner.
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They think he needs an assistant, a General Affairs Secretary with special powers, to help him make decisions on how to get the nation out of this grave economic and social situation.
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They are helpers, not usurpers.
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Obviously, this is a temporary measure until order is reestablished.
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President Garner is forced to accept because he doesn't really know how to get the country out of the difficult situation without triggering a bloody civil war.
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Because he thinks it will be for a limited time and because he has no other choice.
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Being his own life, perhaps at risk.
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The post of Secretary is offered to one of the leaders of the demonstration, General Hugh Johnson.
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He is a former United States Army officer and businessman.
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He was born in Fort Scott, Kansas, in 1882.
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He was a member of Franklin D. Roosevelt's brain trust.
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In 1916, he fought in Mexico during the Pancho Villa expedition.
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December 21st, 1933.
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Johnson accepts assignment, he will be the United States General Secretary.
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While the protesters continue to garrison Washington, the powers of the Secretary of General Affairs are established.
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He will be the commander-in-chief of the US military and of the National Guard.
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He will have veto power over any bill passed by Congress.
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He will be able to suspend sentences pronounced at federal level.
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He can issue executive orders that cannot be challenged by the judicial authorities for violation of the Constitution.
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The Secretary of General Affairs will be assisted by the American Liberty League, a committee composed of the most prominent businessmen and bankers of that United States.
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And several high-ranking military personnel and politicians.
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All people with great experience and competence.
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The Liberty League or Patriots League, probably the real leadership of the country, has the role of advising the Secretary and can remove him if necessary.
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The Liberty League will be disbanded as soon as the situation returns to normal, but no specific date is indicated.
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Slowly the protesters abandoned Washington.
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Around 15,000 veterans, especially those left without jobs, decide to remain as security forces.
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A paramilitary army accountable only to the General Secretary and paid for by the Liberty League.
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The uniform shirts has a scarlet eagle, symbol of USA over the heart.
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The General Secretary and the Liberty League will have their headquarters in the Executive Office Building in Washington.
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The first measures concern the restoration of public order.
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Martial law is declared, another prerogative of the General Secretary.
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Terrorist attacks and much of the unrest cease.
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Increasing support for the new political system.
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Trade unions linked to anarchist or communist movements are banned.
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There will be several reforms to stabilize the financial markets.
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Banks are reopened with federal loans.
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State assistance to families with children.
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The end of prohibition era, increasing public revenues and creating around 1 million jobs related to the alcohol industry.
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There is a tax cut for large industries.
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The powers that support Johnson will use all their immense economic power to help him.
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The mainstream newspapers are constantly talking about how things are constantly improving.
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Wages are increased and working conditions are improved.
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In exchange, American industries receive billions in weapons contracts from the US War Production Board.
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Because a huge help to stimulate the economy will be given by a huge increase in military spending.
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Unemployment falls significantly.
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And in 1934, the United States emerged from recession.
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However, the Great Depression ended around 1933 to 1934 all over the world.
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From Australia to South America, regardless of whether there was a communist, fascist, or democratic government.
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Even in those countries that did almost nothing.
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It even ended with the plethora of federal agencies and counterproductive economic policies pursued by Roosevelt.
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So sooner or later it will end up in the USA too.
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These successes are attributed to Johnson's new leadership, just as in our timeline they were attributed to Roosevelt.
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There are other measures.
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All immigration from China and other unwanted Asian and Arab countries is banned.
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But immigration from Eastern Europe and South America is also restricted.
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There is a centralization of political power.
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The role of the state governors is reduced.
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The second wave of KKK continues to grow, and in 1936 it has more than 4 million members.
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It will become a tool of American government to do the dirty jobs.
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A network of youth groups and summer camps is established.
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The age of the children varies from 6 to 18 years old.
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Boys and girls.
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There are swimming pools, archery competitions, forest walks, musical bands, and parties.
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Only children of European origin are allowed in these camps.
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Asians and Spaniards are not welcome.
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Blacks, not even talking about it.
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Executive Order 6161, starting from 1935.
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Concentration camps are created.
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Officially called internment camps, relocation areas, or citizen isolation centers.
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Here all people considered potentially dangerous are forcibly transferred, together with their families.
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Political adversaries like Huey Long, but also criminals.
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Immigrants, mentally ill people.
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The confinement is intended to mitigate a security risk for a limited period of time until the situation stabilizes.
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But several people will remain there for years.
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The camps also serve as a segregation center for individuals and families who were to be deported in other countries.
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At least 100,000 people will be locked up in these camps.
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Retired General Smedley Butler was the Liberty League's first choice for General Secretary, but he declined.
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Armed with a blanket arrest warrant, the FBI seized him on January 20th, 1934.
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He was detained in municipal jails and then transferred with his family to a relocation area.
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Here he died in 1940 of cancer.
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Jews are also targeted.
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The camps are in fact enclaves, little towns built in very isolated, undeveloped, and harsh regions.
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In lands heavily forested, desertic or swampy, surrounded by barbed wire fences and monitored by military police.
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The camp are often still under construction when the first inmates begin to arrive.
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The camp hosts schools, a hospital, and residential blocks, based on designs for military barracks.
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Each with dozens of buildings divided into multiple apartments, as well as communal toilets.
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Some camp administrations allow relatively free movements.
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Part of the inmates have the permission to leave the camps to live and work elsewhere in the United States.
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Under supervision of a family or agency, whose loyalty is assured.
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If you think it could not happen here, this is exactly what happened to Japanese, Italians, and Germans during World War II.
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Japan has been at war with China since 1931.
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The United States remains rather isolationist.
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There will be no sanctions or embargoes.
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Indeed, relations with militarist Japan are rather good.
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Since 1934, the military dominance over the Japanese government continues to grow.
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Without a war in Europe, an attack on the British, French, or Dutch colonies would be too risky.
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There will be no Pearl Harbor.
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The United States, which began rearmament in 1934, is scary.
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In the Japanese army, the faction that supports the northern expansion doctrine or northern road win.
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This doctrine states that Siberia is Japan's sphere of interest.
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But this plan is abandoned in 1939 after the defeat in the battles of Khalkhin Gol.
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The Japanese will focus their efforts on China.
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Philippine independence is stopped.
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The Philippines will follow the same path as Hawaii, becoming another star in the American flag.
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MacArthur is sent to the Philippines, the main reason is to distance him from Washington.
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1936, the United States presidential election is won by Prescott Bush.
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1939, the Spanish war ends with Franco's victory.
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The United States, like other countries, ignores the embargo on all arms exports to Spain.
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And allows large shipments to Franco's troops.
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Relations with Germany and Italy are improving.
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And remain colder with France and United Kingdom.
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A wave of fascist organizations is taking over Europe.
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Hungary, Romania, Portugal, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Greece.
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In France, Netherlands, Norway, and Britain, ultra-nationalist groups are also increasing their popularity.
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In 1938, Germany annexes Austria and then Bohemia.
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In the 1930s, European fascist regimes were viewed in a positive light.
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Not only by part of the American ruling class.
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Today, the superiority of democracy is self-evident to everybody.
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But the mere moral appeals rarely bring food on the table.
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When democracies fails to deliver prosperity and political stability, as during the Great Depression.
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The tide of popular opinion could lead the people to seek alternatives.
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Such as communism in Russia, and fascism in Italy and Germany.
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In USA, however, this is more of a right-wing conservative government than a true fascist dictatorship.
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The real fascism was only performed in Italy.
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However, each of the countries, Spain, Germany, and others, set up their own fascist systems.
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Based on the various social and cultural histories of those countries.
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For example, Germany was more focused on the militaristic and racial aspects, maintaining a capitalistic economy.
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USA will be more similar to the German version.
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The real event that ended the Great Depression and caused a huge acceleration of the economy was the advent of the Second World War.
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This is why Roosevelt tried everything to have a war.
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He sent weapons to the Axis enemies.
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The list of provocations against Germany and Italy in the Atlantic is endless.
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He slapped sanctions on Japan.
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Froze Japan's bank assets.
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Roosevelt asked for war.
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And he got it.
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But there is no need to go to other continents to have a war.
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Mexico, under the presidency of Lázaro Cárdenas, has strong left-wing connotations.
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Cárdenas made a six-year economic plan based on the Soviet Union's five-year plan.
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Massive land reform programs.
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He nationalized the railway system and other left-leaning reforms.
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The Mexican government helped the communists during the Spanish Civil War.
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In 1938, it was one of only two governments to openly condemn the annexation of Austria into Germany.
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In March 1938, Cárdenas decides to nationalize of all petroleum reserves.
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Facilities and foreign oil companies in Mexico.
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All the US and Anglo-Dutch oil company are expropriated.
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This sparks violent protests and after a few weeks, without even an ultimatum or a declaration of war, Mexico is invaded.
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What weapons would the US Army have?
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Since the US rearmament began earlier than in our timeline, we can assume that the US military in 1938 would have had more advanced weapons.
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And in greater numbers.
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America's main battle tank is the M2 medium tank.
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There are about 200 of them.
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The armament consists of 137 mm cannon and up to 77.62 mm Browning M1919 machine guns.
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There are 800 M2 light tanks, a twin turret tank with a 37 mm cannon.
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There are 200 M1s, a light tank armed with machine guns.
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600 CTL3.
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The first M3 Lee.
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The US Air Force has 3,000 aircraft.
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The standard bomber is the B18, a two-engine aircraft.
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The Northrop A17 is the standard attack aircraft.
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And the Curtis P36, the standard fighter.
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The US Air Force already has 100 B17s.
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Almost impossible for the Mexicans to shut it down.
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The Mexican army is no match for the United States.
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In the 1930s, it is very degraded after almost 30 years of civil war and military uprisings.
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There are 50 small infantry battalions and 40 cavalry regiments.
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Scattered in separate garrisons throughout the country to maintain local order.
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Two artillery regiments armed with the French 75 light field gun.
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The Mexicans keep what little artillery they have near Mexico City.
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As well as the anti-aircraft guns and the tankettes.
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Mainly Marmon-Herrington CBTL.
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There are also the rural militias, some 60,000 peasants.
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Something like a gendarmerie.
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The soldiers have locally made small arms.
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Licensed Mauser rifles, Mendoza LMG2 machine guns.
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The infantry support weapon is a version of the 60 mm French Brandt mortar.
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Their Air Force consists of less than 100 biplanes.
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After some initial debacle, for sure the Mexicans are military more skilled soldiers than the Americans.
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The American army advances in Mexico.
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Among their commanders are Eisenhower and Patton.
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There will be a naval blockade to stop Soviet aid.
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The landing in Veracruz.
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Alongside the USA, there are also South American contingents.
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Of which the Brazilian one is the largest.
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Executive Order 9066.
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300,000 Mexican who have emigrated to the USA and Americans of Mexican origin.
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Must leave the territory of California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas for confinement sites in the hinterland.
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As happened to the Japanese after Pearl Harbor.
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The presence of potential saboteurs is feared.
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They are housed at horse racetracks or fairgrounds.
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Wooden and tarpaper barracks are constructed for additional housing.
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As well as unpartitioned toilets, camp bed for beds.
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The situation in the Mexican internment camps is bad and worsening rapidly.
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In 1939, after the fall of Mexico City, Mexico surrenders.
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The USA annexes the Southern California and the Eastern regions, rich of oil.
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Nicolás Rodríguez Carrasco is the new Mexican leader of a right-wing government supported by USA.
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During the war with Mexico, the military service become mandatory for all male citizens.
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But it will remain mandatory also after the war.
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After the defeat of Mexico, much of Central and South America is aligned with USA.
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In Chile, the nationalist social movement rules, after a coup d'état backed by the USA that placed General Ibáñez to power.
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In Paraguay, the USA manages to keep Colonel Rafael Franco in power.
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In Peru, there is a military junta.
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Bolivia, in 1936, Colonel David Toro overthrew President Tejada in a military coup.
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Uruguay, there is the strong nationalist dictatorship of Gabriel Terra.
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Brazil is under Vargas, a dictator.
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In Ecuador, there is a military junta.
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In Panama, the canal is occupied by US Marines.
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The leader of Panama is Arnulfo Arias.
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A strong admirer of Italian fascism.
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Cuba is under Batista, supported by the United States.
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There will be neither the communist revolution, nor Castro.
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Guatemala, the General Jorge Ubico is in power, supported by the United States.
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Nicaragua has been occupied by US Marines since 1912.
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American troops landed in Honduras in 1934.
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San Salvador, after a military coup, is led by a military civic directory.
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Maximiliano Hernández Martínez, President.
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Costa Rican President León Cortés Castro is an admirer of Nazi Germany.
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The massive war spending doubled economic growth rates.
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And the mobilization of manpower following the outbreak of war with Mexico ended unemployment.
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Moving approximately 10 million people into the war labor force.
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This finally eliminated the last effects from the Great Depression.
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In 1940, Bush is reelected with an overwhelming majority of votes.
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1939, Germany and Russia attack Poland.
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Without American support, France and the United Kingdom do not declare war on Germany.
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Limiting themselves to diplomatic protests and sanctions.
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However, Hitler never was interested in a war with the British.
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1941, since there is no pro-British coup d'état in Yugoslavia.
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Operation Barbarossa begins earlier in May.
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Germany and its Axis allies invade the Soviet Union.
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Without a war in the West, the Soviets would expect a German attack.
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But in 1940, the French too expected the Germans attack, changed nothing.
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General Motors factories continues to build trucks, bomber engines, and tanks for Wehrmacht.
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The American Lend-Lease program starts supplying Axis with oil, food, and materials.
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USA remains officially non-belligerent, but sympathizes with the Axis powers.
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Johnson agrees that American people would be permitted to enlist privately in the German army immediately after the start of Barbarossa operation.
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Seen as an anti-communist crusade.
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By July 1941, around 100,000 men volunteer.
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Many of them are professional soldiers given leave from the American army.
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Including many veterans of the Mexican war, and nearly a third of the volunteers are students.
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On the 13th of July 1941, the first ship leave New York for Hamburg.
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Then the soldiers are transported by train to Grafenwöhr, Bavaria, for five weeks of training.
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Here they become the German army's 229th, 234th, 235th, 236th Infantry Division.
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The soldiers cannot use official American army uniforms.
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So they wear the German army field gray uniform, the Feldgrau.
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With a shield on the upper right sleeve.
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Bearing the word America and the USA national colors.
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Each division is divided into three infantry regiments, as in the standard German model.
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The regiments are named after the American cities that volunteers largely originated from.
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They are equipped with the Mauser Karabiner 98K, MP18, MG34 machine guns.
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Each regiment is supported by an artillery regiment using 75 mm guns.
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105 mm guns.
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LEFH18.
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150 mm guns.
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FH18 heavy field howitzer.
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Anti-tank guns, 37 mm pack 36 and 75 mm pack 40.
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Each division also has some Stug 3.
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There are enough men left over to create an assault battalion.
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Mainly armed with MP38 submachine guns, sent in Finland.
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It will have high losses.
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On September, the four divisions are formally incorporated into the German Wehrmacht.
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They are initially assigned to Army Group Center, the force advancing towards Moscow.
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The divisions are transported by train to Suwałki, Poland.
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Then they have to continue by foot on a 900 km march, Lida in Belarus, Vilnius, Maladzyechna, Minsk, Orsha to Smolensk.
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And from there to the Moscow front.
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At Smolensk, part of the American volunteers are rerouted and assigned to Army Group North.
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The force closing on Leningrad, becoming part of the German 16th Army.
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They are first deployed on the Volkhov River front, with its headquarters in Novgorod.
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They are in charge of a 50 km section of the front, along the banks of the Volkhov River and Lake Ilmen.
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In spring 1942, they are transferred north to the southeastern flank of the siege of Leningrad.
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Just south of the Neva River.
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Japan remains a threat in the East.
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So the Soviets cannot deploy the Siberian divisions in Europe.
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Moscow falls in the summer of 1942.
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Causing the retreat of the Red Army on the Urals.
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This ends the fightings in Europe.
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What happens next?
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After the victory, the American divisions are withdrawn.
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There will be a victory parade in New York to celebrate the victorious conclusion of the war.
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Close to 3,000 American volunteers refused to return and are absorbed into other German units.
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They will be sent to the Caucasus.
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Stalin is soon deposed.
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Beria follows, but communism collapses before 1946 in a Russia still under embargo.
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The Sino-Japanese War ends in 1943 with a Japanese victory.
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The Japanese get Manchukuo, Mengjiang, East China, Xiamen, Xiapu, Hainan, and Fujian.
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Chiang Kai-shek's China is increasingly supported by the USA.
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Without the Soviet Union's help, Mao's communists will be defeated in the next few years.
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After the defeat in China, communism is swept away from history.
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Colonialism will last longer.
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Without the Second World War, the European powers are not weakened.
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The Russian regions will gradually regain their independence.
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Maintaining occupation in those lands facing guerrilla warfare every day would have worn out the Wehrmacht without any gain.
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Without the devastations caused by the Second World War, Britain remains a world power.
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With the biggest fleet in the world.
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The USA will mainly develop a land army.
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Only India will gain independence after 1940, staying united and moving closer to the Axis and America in the following years.
Speaker 2
Segregation in the USA will last much longer.
Speaker 2
And some of the rules will be applied to Jews, Asians, and after the war with Mexico, Hispanics.
Speaker 2
The USA will never join the Axis.
Speaker 2
But they will maintain good relationships, especially with Germany, similar to those that the USA has with Great Britain in our timeline.
Speaker 2
There will be joint projects to produce tanks that could equip both armies.
Speaker 2
The P51 will have a Messerschmitt engine.
Speaker 2
The Manhattan Project.
Speaker 2
Germans and Americans exchange nuclear information, but only combine their efforts in the final stages.
Speaker 2
The Italian Enrico Fermi will probably remain in Italy.
Speaker 2
In 1944, Charles Lindbergh becomes the American president.
Speaker 2
So.
Speaker 2
This is the new world.
Speaker 2
The story ends here.
Topics:Great DepressionRoosevelt assassinationNew DealJohn GarnerGeneral Hugh JohnsonAmerican fascism1930s US historyeconomic crisisauthoritarianismpolitical alternate history
