**If You See This Level HIT It's A Strong Entry! [BTC + Crypto] — Transcript & Summary | SozAI**
Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/strong-entry-level-btc-crypto/

Analysis of interest rate shifts and market trends with trade insights on Bitcoin, stocks, and crypto for strong entry points.

## Key Takeaways

- Interest rate decisions and bond yield movements are critical indicators for upcoming market direction.
- Current market shows mixed signals with potential for a bounce if bond yields pull back.
- Strong technical setups in major stocks and crypto suggest good entry points with proper risk management.
- Diversified allocation between crypto and traditional assets is common among viewers.
- Monitoring momentum and technical indicators can help time entries and exits effectively.

## What the video covers

- Discussion on shifting probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions and their impact on 10-year and 30-year bond yields.
- Analysis of current market conditions with bulls holding control but bears potentially gaining momentum.
- Review of key trades including Bitcoin, Pump token, major tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Google, and ETFs like MAGX.
- Technical analysis highlighting potential bounces in Dow Jones, S&P 500 futures, QQQ, and individual stocks based on support zones and momentum indicators.
- Insights into the energy sector and semiconductor stocks with specific mentions of Bloom Energy, MU, Intel, and AMD.
- Crypto market overview focusing on Ethereum's resistance and strong moves in Pump token.
- Emphasis on allocation strategies across crypto, traditional finance, and diversified portfolios based on viewer poll results.
- Detailed technical setups including symmetrical triangles, Fibonacci levels, and momentum oscillators indicating possible market reversals.
- Discussion on risk management, scaling into positions, and timing for taking profits or holding trades.
- Encouragement for viewer engagement through polls and comments on market exposure and trade strategies.

## Chapters

1. 00:00 Interest Rate Shifts and Bond Yields Impact
2. 01:53 Viewer Poll on Market Allocation
3. 03:54 Trade Positions and Market Sentiment
4. 05:49 Technical Analysis of Key Stocks
5. 07:27 Energy and Semiconductor Sector Update
6. 11:24 Crypto Market Overview and Trades
7. 15:22 Entry Zones and Allocation Strategies
8. 19:57 Final Trade Insights and Risk Management

Answers

## Questions about this video

What impact do interest rate decisions have on Bitcoin and crypto markets?

Interest rate decisions influence bond yields, which in turn affect market liquidity and investor sentiment. A pullback in 10-year and 30-year yields could trigger a bounce in Bitcoin and crypto prices.

Which stocks are highlighted as strong trade opportunities in this video?

Amazon and Google are noted as strong trade opportunities due to their technical setups near key support levels and momentum indicators suggesting potential bounces.

How should traders manage their positions according to the video?

Traders are advised to scale into positions, monitor momentum and technical indicators for entry and exit points, and consider risk management by adjusting average entry prices rather than using tight stop losses.

## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:01

Speaker A

We've seen another shift in the probabilities of an interest rate decision, and consequently, what's happened is we're starting to see the 10-year and 30-year yields have the potential to pull back. If that does pull back, that could make the difference at

00:15

Speaker A

this critical junction that you find prices at, for not only the stock market but also Bitcoin and cryptos, right on the cusp of bears potentially taking back control.

00:25

Speaker A

For the most part, it's been bulls holding control for the last couple of weeks, and the pendulum does tend to swing. So the question is, will we see that swing in favor of the bears? We have, again, the Asian market selling off, coming into the London session later,

00:40

Speaker A

and then New York consistently seems to be picking it up in the end. So again, right on the cusp, price pretty much in exactly the same place as it's been for quite a long period of time.

00:50

Speaker A

We've seen some mega, mega moves within Pump. One of the big trades that we've had in Wellroom, the Pump token, moving up beautifully over there. Now the question is, should you be taking profits or should you just continue to hold those positions?

01:03

Speaker A

It's not the only position we have on the table. Pretty much everything is in profit.

01:07

Speaker A

We have the individual trades over here. Only one short trade, which is McDonald's, up over 100 on that. Fight coin up, Apple up over there, and then a couple have started to pull back into the red over here. But up on BTC, Solana, Palantir, Robinhood,

01:22

Speaker A

MU Micron Technologies, Bloom Energy pushing towards the upside once again, Intel as well up.

01:27

Speaker A

And now on the majors. The QQQ is slightly down, but I think it's also right on the cusp of potentially bouncing out of that zone. Apple also slightly down 2%, and Amazon slightly down. But that drawdown has been a scaled area whereby we're building

01:43

Speaker A

positions into those trades. And is it time to bail out? Is the trade idea failing? Would you give it a little bit of a chance to push up? We'll discuss that today.

01:53

Speaker A

First and foremost, I'll ask you the question: how is your allocation split at the moment? So give me an idea over here by voting in the poll. Which best describes your exposure to markets at the moment? Are you mostly in crypto with some traditional finance exposure? Well,

02:06

Speaker A

that's 54% of you. It seems like the majority. We have mostly traditional finance, that could be, remember, stocks, indices, commodities, bonds, etc., and then a little bit of crypto exposure.

02:17

Speaker A

That's 17% of you. Or are you diversified between crypto, stocks, bonds, commodities, property? That is so far 21% of you. Have another combination? Feel free to write that into the comment section. And then while you're voting over there,

02:33

Speaker A

please do me a favor, smash the like button up top over there, and let's go.

02:37

Speaker A

Right. So looking at the probability of a Fed rate move at the October 28th meeting, which is just around a month away, we saw yesterday that was sitting at 70%, and that suddenly dropped down to 44.8% because there's been a whole lot of speeches over there. So will the lack of Fed panic... The

02:55

Speaker A

Fed aren't panicking, I guess, despite the 10-year and 30-year yields pushing towards the upside.

03:00

Speaker A

They say that the two-year yield tends to dictate what they should be doing, which is showing a massive divergence, meaning the two-year yield is... What is going on over here? One second. The two-year yield, let's grab our pen, is trading up here, and we see the Fed

03:15

Speaker A

funds rate trading down here. So theoretically, these need to converge towards one another. And if the Fed are not panicking, does that mean that the bond yields will start to go down?

03:28

Speaker A

Ultimately, we are starting to find a little bit of a local top over there. So there is the potential if we do see a drop over here on the 10-year and the 30-year. Look, it's still, broadly speaking, very strong. But if we come in for a higher low, that pull down into the

03:41

Speaker A

higher low should ignite a little bit of a bounce across the rest of the market, as most of the selling has been due to panic with this rising towards the upside. We've spoken a lot about that. The rate at which it's moving towards the

03:54

Speaker A

upside is more the scary thing, versus it just slowly but steadily moving up. So all in all, we have a bunch of trades on the table. Am I still in those trades?

04:03

Speaker A

Let's actually have a look at the Dow Jones, which is still in the entry zone. Remember, we took this long trade down here, 75% profits. I'm looking to reallocate that. So I'm still scaling into this position over here, and I think that you should get some kind of a

04:16

Speaker A

technical bounce anywhere between the lowest, which would be 49,932, and current prices. So scaling into that position over there, that signifying chances of prices bouncing are high.

04:28

Speaker A

We see over here in the S&P 500 futures, chances of bouncing from this region are also pretty high.

04:33

Speaker A

And then QQQ giving a second opportunity over here for a possible bump and run. So again, chances of bouncing over here are high, especially if we see that 10 and 30 yield come down.

04:43

Speaker A

So I'm still long on QQQ3. That's a 3x leverage bet. I'm still long on MAGX, this one over here, which is a leverage bet on the Magnificent 7 ETF, which is coming back into a back test as support. And therefore, ultimately,

04:58

Speaker A

we might see some continuation. And I'm also long on Amazon over here, scaling into this region. So this is not really a true representation. I don't have a tight stop loss, but more so I'm willing to scale in and reduce my average entry throughout this region over here.

05:13

Speaker A

And then the same thing on Google, which you can see is compressing into the symmetrical triangle. So if we look at those independently on the low timeframes, that being both Amazon and Google, you can see this beautiful trend line. You can see

05:25

Speaker A

from the local low to the local high, we have our key fibs that are lining up over here, and this is par for the course for a bounce zone. So around this 243, I'm looking for a little bit of a reaction out of here. I'm sure you could stab a little bit lower.

05:38

Speaker A

If we zoom in and we have a look at our momentum oscillator as well, we are starting to get a bit of a bullish divergence between price putting in slightly lower lows and the momentum oscillator putting in slightly higher lows,

05:49

Speaker A

with the confirmed green dots on the hourly. So this move could come as soon as today.

05:54

Speaker A

And we're seeing almost exactly the same thing take place on Google when we look at, again, fib levels pulled from the low to the ultimate high, compression into that symmetrical triangle over here, holding at the key 50 level, and then highlighting,

06:08

Speaker A

of course, the momentum oscillator giving the green dot and the potential to start to bounce out of that zone. So all in all, continuing to hold these trades, giving it a final, final, final last chance. You can see on these dailies as well the confluence

06:22

Speaker A

around that all-important 200 EMA, and I think that we should get resolution relatively soon.

06:28

Speaker A

So let's move on. We can go through just a couple of the others. That's Amazon right at the 200 EMA, Google at the 200 EMA, Apple trading a whole lot above, starting to pull back slightly. We have NVIDIA also way above its 200 EMA. So risk to reward, the best ones right now are still Amazon

06:42

Speaker A

and Google if you're looking for the individual stock trade. And I think that what they could do is similar to what we saw on Meta, which was also exactly the same thing: a large move up, compressing into a symmetrical triangle, which tends to break out in alignment with the prior

06:56

Speaker A

trend, which has been towards the upside. So all in all, we'll continue to hold that.

07:01

Speaker A

We have Microsoft also overextended, so no trade over there. And then we've got the rejection on Tesla. So this is where you can start to look out for support to be found on Tesla.

07:11

Speaker A

Tesla is different to the rest in the sense that it's trading below its 200 EMA. The rest of them are above the 200 EMA, so this is slightly weaker. But I do think that there's a

07:22

Speaker A

you're going to find support over here and put in a higher low, bouncing between 330 and 342.

07:27

Speaker A

All right. So moving on into the energy sector. Bloom Energy up beautifully over there. Oil trade coming down. It looks like it actually might take out this low. This will be good, probably, for the rest of the market to start to push up. And this might lead into a higher low,

07:41

Speaker A

but retesting, I think, anywhere between about 94 and, in a worst case scenario if you're bullish, down to 89. So keep an eye out on that for the energy sector.

07:52

Speaker A

The metals got absolutely obliterated. They're starting to put in a bit of a technical bounce.

07:56

Speaker A

I'm not going to cover this at length. I think that it's really simple. In order to get back into a position of strength, you really want to trade back above this red line, 4,360. Otherwise, you're going to continue to chop, and you have a good chance of coming down

08:10

Speaker A

into this red box over here, which is about 3,900. And then the same thing on silver. You don't need to overcomplicate it. This thing, to get back into a position of strength, really must get above about 6,750. Otherwise, you have a good chance

08:22

Speaker A

of moving down to 54. Everything in between there is simply just range bound and chopping.

08:27

Speaker A

And then we've got our individual trades over here. I'm happy to continue to hold long on this. This is Palantir, another long trade that we have. We spoke about the throwback into key support for Robinhood. So if you're looking for a trade of the day, probably one to put on the list,

08:40

Speaker A

overnight trading already up at 119. We know that the CEO of Robinhood came out yesterday at a conference. I don't have all the details on it, but he effectively came to start to challenge the protocols like FOMO, effectively creating a much more crypto-friendly platform as well,

09:02

Speaker A

to draw some of that liquidity towards Robinhood. So I guess the market likes that, and that's why you're getting a little bit of a bounce. And of course, it's just magical lines on a chart that coincidentally said that something like that would probably happen at key support. Of course,

09:16

Speaker A

this is the way the charting works. So looking for the bounce out of here, pretty decent.

09:20

Speaker A

MU still holding up, it's okay. Intel holding up, it's okay. Caterpillar still long over here, starting to move into profits nicely over there. AMD probably going to put in a little bit of a consolidation or pullback, so I definitely wouldn't be going long over there. SanDisk,

09:35

Speaker A

I think, is fine. Continue to hold the long trade. No need to change that.

09:38

Speaker A

And then you've got to be careful on the South Korean stock market, of which Samsung and SK Hynix make up the majority. You've got these trend lines that are starting to add pressure into it. We are in profit, but if you go up to the actual stock market over there for them, the KOSPI, remember,

09:56

Speaker A

this is the picture. It starts to get dangerous if you begin to take out these swing lows at 6,560, right? Breaking below there, you have a bit of support with the 200 EMA, but once you start to lose that, things can fall apart

10:07

Speaker A

very quickly. And this is one of the things to be cautious around, right? So although there's a lot of conflicting information, with the 10-year and 30-year yields moving up and the DXY as well pushing up quite aggressively over here,

10:19

Speaker A

potentially right at the breakout zone, many may ask: why go long on these other markets, like individual stocks? Why go long on the Magnificent Seven and QQQ? Well, my answer to that would be that you've got to trade the chart that's in front of you, right? That's

10:38

Speaker A

ultimately all that it comes down to. You've got to trade the chart that's in front of you.

10:41

Speaker A

So be aware of all the background noise that's taking place, the uncharacteristic up-only across various different charts that don't typically move up-only together, and just trade the chart that's in front of you and be aware that something could

10:57

Speaker A

break. If this explodes towards the upside and the yields go ballistic towards the upside, something could break, right? Which would usually result in a big sell-off within the stock market. But if you're managing your risk accordingly, you should be okay.

11:10

Speaker A

So those are the charts that are in front of us when it comes to the TradFi market. For those of you that want to take advantage of the final, final, final day of the special for Bitfunded, if you want to pass a prop firm challenge to trade with other people's money, final call,

11:24

Speaker A

50% off. The link is in the description below. Use it or lose it. And let's move on. Right, let's go on to crypto.

11:31

Speaker A

So it's still slightly negative on the skew. We're also seeing the deltas on Hyblock Capital, which showcase the majority of traders' orders, are also negative, right? Which means people, broadly speaking, are net short. We've had the huge reset in the open interest, and this is why

11:47

Speaker A

things are sitting right on a knife's edge, where you could see another short squeeze.

11:52

Speaker A

I'll show you price-wise where that would take Bitcoin. Quick one: it's pretty much between about $88,000 and $92,000, and I think that would complete probably a local top for the market. Then you're going to be looking for a deeper pullback,

12:06

Speaker A

where you can profit take off of that local high. One more push up, profit take off the local high, reallocate into the next major pullback, which could still be in the low 70s or mid 70s, right? We'll get to that point. No guarantees, only probabilities.

12:21

Speaker A

But right now we're seeing things squeeze. In terms of the total liquidations, they're not that high, because most of the leverage has actually already been taken out. Daily exchange volume is still coming down, so it's a precarious spot

12:32

Speaker A

where you do want this to start to push back up. And a quick look at the ETFs, which are almost going negative over here, right? Not quite negative yet, but almost going negative.

12:42

Speaker A

So we can also go through the trends regarding the high timeframe moving averages that we use over here: the 3, the 9 and the 30 moving average, specifically on a five-day timeframe. And you can see that this is the early innings if this

12:57

Speaker A

is going to be a bull run. This is pretty early. You need all of these moving averages to start to angle towards the upside. Your powerful moves take place when the yellow, the green and the purple are actually trading above the white moving average, which we haven't got to yet.

13:11

Speaker A

And you can see the structure beginning to shift across other assets in the cryptosphere as well.

13:17

Speaker A

If you look over here at ETH, it hasn't even reclaimed that white moving average yet. We can have a look at Pump, for example. This is starting to look really strong. So this is one of the ones that are pretty strong trading moves. I'm going to continue to hold those positions over there.

13:31

Speaker A

Price above the yellow, yellow above the green is exactly what you want, both angled up, and green above the purple, which means the shortest is above the medium, which is above the high timeframe moving average. And all of those are angled up. So although it's

13:45

Speaker A

tempting to take profit on something like Pump right now, this tells me to hold it, right? Don't be too quick on taking profits. This could be very quickly absorbed, even over the course of today.

13:58

Speaker A

And I'll just quickly highlight that move right there. There's another one that we had to look at for the long trade, but let's just quickly go through to that Pump trade over here and take a look, right? Breaking out of that triangle, I think this can very, very, very quickly accelerate

14:12

Speaker A

percentage-wise before finding any kind of resistance. Another 50%, which is a pretty sizable move if you've allocated with quite a large position, which I have. This is great money.

14:24

Speaker A

Now you can see if you look at things like Aster, another one of the trades that we have, it's only just starting to reclaim. Look at that last five-day candle: strong reversal. Hold that level over there. It's looking good. Pons is not

14:35

Speaker A

going to have enough chart history. We'll go to FET. This is Fetch.ai, another one of the trades that we have on the table. As long as you don't take out these lows, these could potentially be the start of trends in motion, supported by those EMAs.

14:49

Speaker A

XRP, right? Still very messy. It hasn't fully reclaimed. Solana is looking decent, more similar to Pump, right? It's got those moving averages moving beautifully towards the upside, and these trends can really get going, right? So keep an eye out on that. If you're trying to short new lows or

15:07

Speaker A

anything like that, you'll probably become part of the liquidation stats. So just be aware of that.

15:11

Speaker A

So right now, we're right in the demand zone. It's a tricky environment because there's theoretically a lot of demand that comes in down here, and it's just a question of how deep it goes. So you always have to have a position-sized

15:22

Speaker A

plan in terms of how much allocation you're going to have within the market. The strongest buy zone still remains over here. If you're lucky enough to get a throwback into that zone, this becomes a really, really strong entry point,

15:33

Speaker A

which in a worst case scenario is around 67K, and in a best case scenario you get a pullback down to around 73.5 to test right around that anchored VWAP and the 50 MA. So we've been looking at this for quite some time. It's just a question of what comes first, right?

15:50

Speaker A

I do believe that there will be a good chance of a flush down into these regions somewhere here at a later point in time. It's just a question of: do you first put in one more move towards the upside,

16:00

Speaker A

which I'm inclined to think is more likely? Only marginally more likely. It's not extremely, extremely high probability. It's just slightly over 50%. I'd say there's a 60% chance that you have that move up and about a 40% chance that you don't and you do something like that first. But

16:17

Speaker A

ultimately, at some point in time, even if it's after that move, you will get a deeper flush. And that deeper flush is going to be your first major, major higher low after you put in the low. The next macro higher low becomes a strong buy zone, right? So be patient.

16:32

Speaker A

But what we have seen is the BTC price is actually rallying on much less leverage than it previously did. Price is now 35% up from the August low, while coin-denominated open interest is actually down 20%. I'll show you this on another chart visually,

16:48

Speaker A

but you can have a look over here. It's the lowest since March, which makes the rally less likely to end in a leverage flush, which we so often see where longs get absolutely obliterated, and actually more likely to start to put in a low timeframe short squeeze.

17:02

Speaker A

So I've marked it off on the chart. Not only do you have the technical support over here in the purple box, so previous support, resistance, resistance, resistance, and a little bullish order block that pushes price up. Sure, you may come down a little bit more to around 81K to test that as support. I've also marked

17:18

Speaker A

off over here where the open interest actually was on those previous lows. You can see the open interest is significantly lower. If we work it out as an average, the open interest is about 15% down versus where price was over here back in November in 2025,

17:38

Speaker A

versus where price was over here at 59K in February, versus where price was also over here at 59K back in June, and then where it dropped down to the lowest point so far, in the 57K region in July, right? Where's the open interest? It's been mostly wiped out.

17:55

Speaker A

So when you see something like that, it tells you that the bulls can pull it back. I'm also focusing on the RSI, which has been compressing over here, like a lot of the charts that we've seen. If you think of Google, think of Amazon: compression,

18:11

Speaker A

right? We're having consolidation and compression, pushing into those levels. Therefore, if this RSI comes down here, I would expect a bit of a bounce, and the next move up should take out this high.

18:22

Speaker A

So right now, to get that RSI trending back towards the upside, price must reclaim the orange line, $84,305. That's the number to beat. You do have, again, the moving average support. The 9 and 18 EMA on the daily is a good one to look at

18:38

Speaker A

for a short-term bounce. So here you lose it temporarily, but not for long, and you recapture it. And this is supported by these fibs from the local low to the local high over here.

18:48

Speaker A

That's why I say maybe you sweep down into around $81,000, but it will probably get brought up once again for that final, final push up, because this is an expanding wedge that you have over here, right? So you can see that one more move up could take you into the top of that wedge, and then

19:07

Speaker A

you're going to be looking for a deeper correction down. And this is where, again, I'll just quickly draw a circle over there. This deeper correction down lines up with all these things that we're looking at over here as your high probability buy zone later on, if you get that deep flush, right?

19:22

Speaker A

All right, but what if you don't get the deep flush? That's what I'm saying: you've got to have a little bit of exposure on the table. Liquidity is actually stronger above price than below. You can clearly see it by the strong yellow band over there,

19:32

Speaker A

again just supporting the possibility that this open interest has been flushed and you might just get one more run towards the upside before finally putting in that local top.

19:41

Speaker A

So we can move into the altcoins. Let me know in the comments if there is anything in particular that you want to have a look at. Of course, we'll go over some of the trades that we have and what to do with those. Most of them are up.

19:52

Speaker A

One or two of them are down, and we'll talk about how to manage the risk around that.

19:57

Speaker A

A quick mention as well. Watch the video from yesterday. I explained how the points work on Variational. There's the link over here.

20:07

Speaker A

You've got a little bit more time before they do the airdrop of your points In one hour and six, or one day 16 hours. It's every Friday, right? Every Friday you'll get your points airdropped over there. So if you go trade there, if you do swaps, if you do trades,

20:21

Speaker A

so perpetual trades and normal swaps, you'll be rewarded in the form of points, currently priced at about $30 per point. Okay. So good opportunity for those of you that are already trading if you want to take advantage of that.

20:35

Speaker A

All right, let's move on. So moving on to PUMP. Look, if I look at the daily, it removes a lot of the noise. It was a very strong candle that happened yesterday. So I have no reason to close this trade. In fact, I think there's a good chance that this will

20:49

Speaker A

close green today. Just like every day, Asia sells off, London kind of holds it down there, and then the US pushes price back towards the upside when the US markets open, especially considering the confluence of what's happening in the TradFi market right on that

21:03

Speaker A

critical point. And if the 10 and 30-year yields come down over the course of today, that could be a really positive sign to just bring a little bit of liquidity back into those markets, get things moving back towards the upside, and that should take crypto with kind of a tailwind, right? Of

21:18

Speaker A

course, if those yields keep pushing up, that's going to be a headwind as opposed to a tailwind.

21:23

Speaker A

All right, Aster also long and strong, continuing to hold this. Again, nowhere near the position size that I want, because I've scaled orders all the way down to I think 58 or something at the range low in the event that we get a flush. But this is a longer term hold, no changes over there.

21:38

Speaker A

We're seeing a nice push up over here on Ponds, testing into the 50% level. This has got a lot of work to do. And this is the one that I question for myself, right? I need to see this thing break this at least by mid-October. So I don't know if I'm going to have the ability,

21:53

Speaker A

based on the funding rates that I'm paying, to hold this damn position open, because it's getting expensive, right? If you're holding this on purpose, it does become expensive.

22:02

Speaker A

You need this thing to move. So I'll reassess. I'm going to give it more time, more opportunity, based on what I think the stock market could do, to give it the ability to push through.

22:14

Speaker A

Something that we saw as well put in quite a large move out of nowhere was also Mars coin.

22:21

Speaker A

So it sits around there and then suddenly, out of nowhere, you very quickly start to get these pumps, a 100% move. So I think you could see something similar over there. I'm not adding any more into the position. My position size is large enough, but I'm still holding Ponds.

22:34

Speaker A

Cash Cat, pretty much the same thing, right? Very key support. You need to break this trend line. Probably better seen, for example, on the four hourly.

22:41

Speaker A

You can see the way that it's grinding into there. And of course, you're going to have that compression once again. So you should get this answer pretty soon.

22:49

Speaker A

FET, we're up nicely, beautifully on this chart. Ultimately, at this point, you can pretty much say hard stop loss over here below these lows. This is your big candle back testing into the yellow line, which is your bump and run. Of course,

23:02

Speaker A

you do not want to retrace that, otherwise the whole trade unwinds. So you pretty much need to turn from somewhere around here. We can mark off maybe a more accurate zone. We have a little hourly fair value gap. I think it's probably already been hit, though. There it is, yeah,

23:17

Speaker A

it's already been hit over here. So it lines up with the key fibs as well. Let's just see. We've tested the golden pocket. Don't really want to see this hourly come below there, which it's currently working on doing. But yeah, hard stop loss down here on FET at about 1908 would be the level.

23:35

Speaker A

Alrighty, so those are some of the main positions. I left those ones up top.

23:40

Speaker A

And okay, there has been an announcement. Obviously there's going to be a big Lighter unlock, so the Lighter token, there are a lot of coins coming onto the market.

23:49

Speaker A

This one's significant because yesterday's candle has officially taken out that swing low. So you now have a break of structure of your swing low. Any bounce into a lower high and you can pretty much take the rest of your profits. I don't think this thing will get

24:02

Speaker A

completely destroyed. I just think that you'll probably go through profit taking now like this, and you'll most likely come back down into this zone over here, which is going to be just under three dollars. Okay, just under three dollars over there.

24:16

Speaker A

How's HYPE doing? Also a bit of profit taking over here on HYPE. Still a big untested fair value gap at 64.70, but I'm not in on this trade. Okay, so we'll keep an eye out on that.

24:30

Speaker A

Let me know in the comments, guys. What else? What else over here? Mars coin, we just covered that. Okay, let's look at it on the low time frame. So Mars coin, lower time frame. Look, this is the big resistance area. It needs to get through 20. If it can get through 20,

24:44

Speaker A

that's going to be looking good. The hourly trend is definitely very much towards the upside. You have a beautiful trend line coming into play. Of course, you don't want to take out this 11.506. All right, you don't want to take out that level over there.

24:57

Speaker A

BONK. BONK is starting to position into strength. So relative strength. I mean, it's still pretty wrecked overall, but relative strength, considering the rest of the market is coming down. And structurally, this is still holding up after breaking that downtrend, starting to put

25:11

Speaker A

in its very first higher highs and higher lows. So I'm not going to give you an entry on this now. I think it's just for your own viewpoints. It's an idea trade that you can keep an eye on.

25:21

Speaker A

All right, VVV. Let's have a look at VVV, one of the requested charts. Still, okay, you didn't get that. You didn't get any kind of a flag breakout over here. This is continuing to drop down. So let's go on the low time frame. Let's mark this off over here. Let's just check

25:36

Speaker A

it out. All right. Definitely some distribution taking place. All right. Do we have any confluence over here? A little bit of confluence with that trend line. It's not super strong. I don't love it. What about our key fibs, looking from the origin of this move? That's probably something

25:56

Speaker A

more significant that I'd look at. I'll look for a deeper drop down into this 50% level and then some strength to come in after reclaiming that at about 25. So I think you'll likely come into this 25, at least stabbing a few wicks into there. All right. But it's not a beautiful chart for an

26:14

Speaker A

entry right now, right? It's not that clean. We need a little bit more work from this.

26:18

Speaker A

All right, we can have a look at Circle. That's part of the stocks. And let's quickly see McDonald's while we're at it. All right. This trade's fine. Overnight trading slightly up.

26:30

Speaker A

You see how inversely this trades to the 10-year and 30-year yield, right? As those are moving up, McDonald's is going down. If those put in a local top now, then expect McDonald's is probably going to bounce here. All right, so got to keep an eye out on that one.

26:44

Speaker A

All right, let's go to the requested chart, which was Circle. I think I have it over here. Yeah, this. All right, Circle rejecting off of the mid-range and the 200 EMA. This is, of course, on the daily time frame. Look, it's going to chop about, but I think that there's a good

27:02

Speaker A

chance that these are major lows that have occurred over here. So therefore, anything that comes down into that 60 zone is most likely a buy for Circle. Anything that comes down into here is most likely a buy zone. This is probably going to be reaccumulation for Circle.

27:20

Speaker A

All right, I wouldn't short it. I know Integrity by Design is saying short Circle. I wouldn't necessarily short it. Sure, if you're a low time frame trader, maybe you can get a short position in, but I don't know. I think I'd rather just look

27:32

Speaker A

for the longs off of that range low. Clearly a significant range, though. There's a possibility that that is your Wyckoff accumulation with your spring phase, right? Throwing back down into this big volume as it runs up. So keep an eye on that. Any sweep over

27:46

Speaker A

there, you look for the swing failure pattern. If you do happen to get another sweep, so if you see something like that and you take out this low, that again is going to be an opportunity.

27:56

Speaker A

All right. Amazing, amazing. Okay, guys, also, I will go to Nike as well. Just to quickly let you know, tomorrow I will have no YouTube video. So please don't wait around, especially those of you that stay up late in the US. Please sleep. I will be on a plane.

28:13

Speaker A

I'm going to Singapore for the conference. So I'm not going to be available at all tomorrow, and potentially not on Friday as well. But I'll let you know about that. Just follow me on Twitter if you want to find out about Friday. I'll let you know about Friday on X.

28:26

Speaker A

Okay. Let's go to, what was the request over there? Let me just quickly go back up. I've lost it now. Apologies. All right, I've lost that. Oh, Nike. That was Nike. Let's quickly go to Nike as well and see. I allocated, right? So I put in a very small buy. I'm obviously

28:43

Speaker A

prepped to allocate more. There's no rush. There's no rush, right? I have a tiny, tiny, tiny position relative to my net worth. But I'll be watching this. Anything around here, I'll start to look for you. Usually you'll get a little bit of a slowdown phase before mean reverting.

29:01

Speaker A

So Nike's still extremely, extremely weak in a downtrend. You can use those super low timeframes to look for some kind of a shift. A meaningful shift for now for me, on those low timeframes, would be to get above here. Okay, that could be the first meaningful shift. Start to basically

29:19

Speaker A

get above here, at least reclaim that 200 EMA. So you can see that 200 EMA on the hourly is downtrending. Usually what will happen is this will flatten out if you get above, right? You're going to see something like that. And then you're going to chop through that,

29:32

Speaker A

attempting to reclaim before moving up. All right, so that's what I'd watch for on Nike. All right, so just do it. Just do it if you want to.

29:43

Speaker A

All right, guys, what else? What else? Aster, we've done Aster. We've been through Aster over there. TIBBR, we'll have a look at TIBBR. Let's quickly go to TIBBR. All right.

30:00

Speaker A

Over here on the bottom, man, what a brutal rejection and sell off. At least that's on the hourly. Even the daily, oh my gosh, that looks terrible. Look, this could be an illiquid coin, so unfortunately I don't have all the information on this. If it doesn't look like this on other

30:19

Speaker A

exchanges, it's probably fine. Maybe it's just a MEXC mass liquidation over here, at which point I would say it's actually bullish. I'll have a look. Let's have a look on another exchange over here and just see. Let's go to, don't they have Binance or something? USDT.

30:34

Speaker A

I guess we'll have to look at VX. That's going to be the next option over here. So let's look at VX. Put those next to each other. Does it have that same daily? It does. This one looks Very different. This is clearly an illiquid coin. It's very hard for me to comment on something like

30:50

Speaker A

this. I would say if this wick is not represented across other exchanges, it's actually bullish, and you could probably have stops down at 26. But if this is across all exchanges, I don't know, it's illiquid, right? It has this kind of cup and handle look over here to it. But guys, I'm sorry,

31:06

Speaker A

I can't comment too much on this because that wick over there is throwing me off a lot.

31:12

Speaker A

All right, Useless. Let's have a look at Useless. Useless, the meme coin, I think was coming down slightly, if I'm not mistaken. It's in a tricky spot over here because that was quite a strong candle that came down on Monday, and now you're consolidating at those lows,

31:26

Speaker A

so this can easily fall through. I wouldn't chase price over here. If you want allocation into this, you've got to utilize the lower time frame to at least flip that back into an uptrend regime like this, right? Then you can start to get a position in and hope that that trend continues. Otherwise,

31:43

Speaker A

I would just be treating this as range bound, and you can just reassess with any kind of pullback. Good chance that you come down here to 18.79. All right, 18.79.

31:56

Speaker A

All right, we've done Ponds, we've had a look at that. Render, we can have a look at Render. Let's go on the daily for Render. All right, kind of in no man's land, honestly. A lot of these things

32:08

Speaker A

are in no man's land. I don't know, are these lows going to be safe? That's the question. So, major resistance overhead. If Bitcoin rallies to 92, you're probably going to see Render trade up to about this 270 region, which is going to become huge resistance. But you're sitting right in the

32:22

Speaker A

mid. If you're treating the white line as the range low and the top over here as the range high, this is approximately the mid. You probably need to hold that for a couple more days or weeks before you can start to look at a bigger move up. But there's no entry on this right now for Render.

32:38

Speaker A

All right. For those of you that are looking for a free hit, not life-changing wealth, but still free money, $25 bonus. The link over here to Kalshi: trade $50 in perps, get $25, and you'll be entered into the $500 giveaway, which I think is once a week. So here's Kalshi.

32:57

Speaker A

You can, of course, go to the perps section, and everything is listed over here for you.

33:03

Speaker A

All right, QNT. Let's quickly check out QNT. All right, QNT, QNT, QNT. Still sitting at those lows.

33:14

Speaker A

I feel like we get this one often. Am I on the right one? Just correct me if I'm on the right one. This is QNT on Nasdaq. Surely there must be a crypto one. This is in a straight downtrend.

33:25

Speaker A

I'll try it again. Q USDT. Maybe it's this one, right? Q. It's probably the wrong one that I was giving you. Okay, this one looks very different. Let's see the weekly. Powerful move. Yeah, I mean, super powerful move. The weekly is starting to turn green again, man. I don't know if it's a good

33:48

Speaker A

idea to chase this, but assuming you're already in on this position, it's worth holding, man. Tough, tough, tough. If you're up a lot and you took this position, look, it's respecting this trend line.

34:02

Speaker A

I guess just monitor that. If you start to break down this trend, then things can unwind quickly.

34:07

Speaker A

Otherwise, yeah, I would just hold the long, but I wouldn't enter into a new trade over here.

34:15

Speaker A

All righty. Okay, guys, let's leave it at that. We've been through a whole lot.

34:19

Speaker A

Thank you so much for joining. I will see all of you potentially on Friday, otherwise it's going to be on Monday, and I will be in Singapore. If you're coming to Singapore, let me know in the comments below. I'd love to know if any of you are going

34:32

Speaker A

to be in Singapore. If not, I'll see the rest of you on YouTube. Cheers for now.

Topics: Bitcoin crypto interest rates Fed decision bond yields stock market technical analysis trading strategies Pump token MAGX ETF

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