**STEAL The 1-Minute Strategy That Made Him $1.8M+ (Works Every Session) — Transcript & Summary | SozAI**
Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/steal-1-minute-strategy-1-8m/

Learn the 1-minute quant trading strategy that earned $1.8M+ using price action, optimal risk, and prop firm rules.

## Key Takeaways

- A low win rate can still be highly profitable with proper risk-to-reward and capital management.
- Mechanical price action strategies without indicators can be effective in prop firm trading.
- Managing multiple accounts allows spreading risk and increasing overall payout potential.
- Fair pricing theory and session open continuation trades form the backbone of the strategy.
- Strict discipline on when to stop trading losing setups is crucial for long-term success.

## What the video covers

- JJ Simon started trading with $5,000 and quickly scaled profits to over $1.8 million using quantitative finance principles.
- He applies mechanical, indicator-free price action strategies focusing on high time frame bias and session opens.
- Trades are executed primarily on the 1-minute chart with a focus on the first 90 minutes of trading sessions.
- JJ emphasizes a low win rate (~20%) strategy paired with optimal risk-to-reward ratios (up to 1:4) for profitability.
- He manages multiple prop firm accounts simultaneously to diversify risk and maximize payouts.
- The main entry signal is a continuation trade based on the opening candle, combined with fair pricing theory.
- Stop losses are somewhat random, but take profits are optimized to maximize expected value.
- JJ uses strict rules for when to stop trading a strategy, such as stopping reversion trades after three consecutive losses.
- He adapts his approach based on specific prop firm rules and account drawdown limits.
- The video includes live trading demonstrations and detailed explanations of his exact setups and risk management.

## Chapters

1. 00:00 Introduction and Profit Growth Journey
2. 06:40 Trading Reversion and Loss Management
3. 13:52 Fair Pricing Theory and Session Open Trades
4. 21:11 Entry Signals and Break of Structure
5. 34:54 Risk, Reward, and Prop Firm Rules
6. 47:12 Managing Multiple Accounts and Scaling
7. 58:44 Live Trading Demonstrations and Strategy Recap
8. 72:25 Final Thoughts and Trading Psychology

Answers

## Questions about this video

What is the core strategy JJ Simon uses to make profits?

JJ Simon uses a mechanical price action strategy focused on the first 90 minutes of trading sessions, trading continuation of the opening candle aligned with a high time frame bias and fair pricing theory.

How does JJ manage risk with such a low win rate?

He pairs a low win rate of around 20% with optimal risk-to-reward ratios, often 1:4, and uses strict stop loss and take profit rules to maximize expected value and profitability.

Why does JJ trade multiple prop firm accounts simultaneously?

Managing multiple accounts allows JJ to spread risk, increase total payout potential, and optimize trading strategies according to different prop firm rules and account sizes.

## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00

Speaker A

I started with about $5,000. First month I made $17,000. Second month another 20, and then 40, and then 60, and then 80, and then 100.

00:15

Speaker A

really simple. I studied quantitative finance in college. Basically just applying it to the charts in a mechanical way. If you can follow a bias on props, you're going to make a ton of money. He is the world's number one youngest quant trader with over $1.8 million in total

00:28

Speaker A

So these are, you know, the two setups that you've used to achieve over $1.5 million in payouts. No indicators, pure price action, and in essence really simple.

00:43

Speaker A

then my bias only needs to be right about 20% of the time. Pair that with optimal risk and you can be incredibly profitable. Low risk, low reward is not going to get you anywhere. [music] You have to utilize the proper capital that they're giving you. So, in my opinion, high risk, high

00:53

Speaker A

I studied quantitative finance in college. Basically just applying it to the charts in a mechanical way. If you can follow a bias on props, you're going to make a ton of money.

01:10

Speaker A

optimize for your take [music] profit first. The stop loss on the other hand is going to be essentially random. Do you ever find though with that methodology that price could take you out and still the whole bias and everything still be intact? 100%. But thankfully I have 45 accounts

01:23

Speaker A

He is the world's number one youngest quant trader with over $1.8 million in total payout so far. Introducing JJ Simon.

01:36

Speaker A

you've been waiting for to see a true want trader trading prop firms and exactly the system behind it. If I'm trying to trade reversion and I lose three in a row, then I'm done. It's just a market that's most likely not going to revert according to my statistic. The sessions are 90 minutes long

01:50

Speaker A

There is going to exist a statistically optimal risk and take profit for every single trade you take. First, the drawdown that you have available, the rules of the account. Lastly, your win rate.

02:04

Speaker A

they buy a single account is to JJ, thanks for being here with us today and I'm super excited to dive into this. I know that the people are probably super interested into you know exactly how you've been doing everything that you've been doing and achieve such incredible results on prop

02:19

Speaker A

If I'm taking like a one to four risk-to-reward, then my bias only needs to be right about 20% of the time. Pair that with optimal risk and you can be incredibly profitable.

02:36

Speaker A

fair pricing theory. Now, I studied quantitative finance in college and this is sort of some stuff that's taught there. Uh, basically just applying it to the charts in a mechanical way. You have a theory which creates a bias and if you can follow a bias on prop firms, you're going to

02:52

Speaker A

Low risk, low reward is not going to get you anywhere. [music] You have to utilize the proper capital that they're giving you.

03:12

Speaker A

the price. So pretty much just news and session opens. So I'll give a little demonstration here of a session open and how I would use fair pricing theory to trade that open. So if you assume price is coming in at whatever level and then this down here would be 9:30 a.m. EST. So just the normal

03:32

Speaker A

So, in my opinion, high risk, high reward is the way to go. But in this episode, JJ shares his exact strategies which led him to such insane payout numbers.

03:48

Speaker A

9:30 a.m. session. Now, the first trade that I'll take once a day, every single session that opens, I will take a continuation trade. pretty much it's just going to be in the direction of the opening candle assuming it aligns with a high time frame bias that I have and high time frame bias is

04:05

Speaker A

He goes through the exact rules dependent on the prop firm rules. If I buy an eval, I have a 91% chance of getting nothing. Nine times out of 10, you lose $100.

04:10

Speaker A

But the main entry signal that I use is literally just the opening candle. It allows me to get in a slightly plus EV trade on a proper environment. Then when you pair that with optimal risk, you just want to take as many trades as you can with your bias. So the first trade literally the color

04:26

Speaker A

Basically, optimize for your take [music] profit first. The stop loss on the other hand is going to be essentially random.

04:39

Speaker A

opening candle is larger than 25 points I'll just simplify it. Cut my contracts in half. That would make this 76 and that would make this 50. But that is literally it for the first trade. Just a very quick continuation of the opening move trying to capitalize on an unfair displacement.

04:55

Speaker A

Do you ever find though with that methodology that price could take you out and still the whole bias and everything still be intact? 100%.

05:05

Speaker A

All I'm looking to do is revert back towards what I claim to be the fair price, which is sort of what fair pricing theory is, just a return to the opening price. And in terms of the entry, there's

05:17

Speaker A

But thankfully I have 45 accounts and I'm ready to enter again. I'll start with one. I'll get the payout, reinvest that payout.

05:37

Speaker A

candle because it closes below the wick of the previous candle and the body is larger. So that is the first and uh the easiest entry signal. Very mechanical, literally only two things to look at.

05:48

Speaker A

Now I'm going to run five funded accounts and go for max payouts. He goes through how he manages multiple prop firm accounts and he shows his complete system with live trading.

05:57

Speaker A

So everything we talk about will be on the one minute. Yeah. Everything here is 1 minute. The only thing I'll do on the 5 minutes is look for my high time frame bias. But you could also just look at the one minute for 12 hours previous and then still get that same bias. Um, that's

06:10

Speaker A

This is the episode you've been waiting for to see a true quant trader trading prop firms and exactly the system behind it.

06:27

Speaker A

but it's slightly more profitable. The reason why I take displacements, even though they're less profitable, is because I have so many profit accounts that I'm trying to trade daily. Mhm. So, if I'm trying to get through 40 accounts, I want to spread my risk across all of my accounts and

06:40

Speaker A

If I'm trying to trade reversion and I lose three in a row, then I'm done. It's just a market that's most likely not going to revert according to my statistic.

06:55

Speaker A

the candle before and the candle after. If the wick is lower and then a candle comes in here and it breaks the structure, then I will take a short position. just a standard break of structure entry. Now, the interesting thing about this with prop firms is you can see if I was to enter here,

07:12

Speaker A

The sessions are 90 minutes long that I trade. Okay. [music]

07:28

Speaker A

exactly how many points I'm looking to see in a return to the market open price. Okay, based on that, it's going to be a value near these. Like most of the time, I will choose a different prop firm account based on the rules that the prop firm gives me. Some prop firms,

07:43

Speaker A

So, you just focus on that 90 minutes. Yeah. First 90 minutes of every single session. New York, Asia, New York TM.

07:59

Speaker A

like what are the specific rules that prop firms might have that then make you make this decision 100%. So the way I trade profits is using static risk Mhm. and static take profits. So every single trade or not every single trade but a majority of the trades that I take the risk is going to

08:16

Speaker A

Okay. So, every session. Okay. A very easy way for literally anyone watching to automatically check if they're going to make money on prop before they buy a single account is to...

08:29

Speaker A

1.5. So if you separate your trades into a 1 to 1.5, you're automatically going to have a higher pass rate just because of how the draw down trails. But then for these funded trades up here, I'm going to choose to take the 100 point trades on funded accounts that don't have consistency.

08:43

Speaker A

JJ, thanks for being here with us today and I'm super excited to dive into this. I know that the people are probably super interested into, you know, exactly how you've been doing everything that you've been doing and achieve such incredible results on prop firms in such a short amount of time.

08:58

Speaker A

where they move you to a live account. If you get moved to a live account, usually your SIM capital gets reduced and then you have a smaller live account. So there's no point in going for like 20 $30,000 wins when your live account is going to be a fraction of that. Mhm. So basically these

09:12

Speaker A

Um, you know, where's best to begin? Yeah, 100%. I think we should start with the strategy and then I'll show everyone how you can adapt the strategy to run on prop firms specifically.

09:26

Speaker A

a large enough live account to make it worth my time trading it. Evaluations always going to be a 1 to 1.5. It's going to be 2538 or change the contract size to make it 5076. Evaluations as well will be all of my displacement candle entries. Funded accounts I like to save for the breakup

09:42

Speaker A

Perfect. Let's go. Let's do it. So the strategy that I use is called fair pricing theory.

09:57

Speaker A

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10:15

Speaker A

Now, I studied quantitative finance in college and this is sort of some stuff that's taught there. Uh, basically just applying it to the charts in a mechanical way.

10:32

Speaker A

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10:48

Speaker A

You have a theory which creates a bias and if you can follow a bias on prop firms, you're going to make a ton of money.

11:01

Speaker A

the evaluations have a 50% consistency rule. So automatically when I'm assigned a consistency rule, I'm trying to limit my winners. If you win too much, then you have to win even more and more and more and your chance of getting that payout decreases because your profit target increases by

11:16

Speaker A

So, this is the main theory behind the strategy. Now, fair price is what I'm trying to use to price the NASDAQ futures.

11:25

Speaker A

It's very simple. Same reason as devaluation. Sometimes I'll do a one to two, but this is mostly based on the firm and the profit targets that they assign you to reach for payouts. But these entries are better for consistency. And then you can even do one to three, four, five, even six,

11:44

Speaker A

And NASDAQ futures, we're trading companies because it's the NASDAQ. And what that means is I'm only looking at external factors that impact the price.

11:57

Speaker A

an influx of volume that creates an initial unfair move. After that though, and during times when it's not a session open, by the way, the sessions are 90 minutes long that I trade. Okay. So, you just focus on that 90 minutes. Yep. First 90 minutes of every single session. New York,

12:12

Speaker A

So pretty much just news and session opens. So I'll give a little demonstration here of a session open and how I would use fair pricing theory to trade that open.

12:27

Speaker A

The reason fair pricing theory works is because you're trying to have a bias towards what a fair price of the future should be. If you can get your bias right, then you're going to be profitable on prop firms. That's it. Now, the way news impacts futures is by changing the fair price. There's two

12:44

Speaker A

So if you assume price is coming in at whatever level and then this down here would be 9:30 a.m. EST. So just the normal New York session. Mhm.

13:08

Speaker A

what that means is if we have news coming out here at 8:30, the price is coming in 8:30, you are going to see a huge candle coming off of news. It could be multiple in a row, it could just be one,

13:20

Speaker A

From here, there's going to be an influx of volume from overnight orders being executed and institutions entering. This is going to create an initial unfair move.

13:34

Speaker A

The price action that's happened for the previous 6 to 12 hours is moving the market up or down to a fair price because the news is priced in. Basically, that means there's a forecast and 90% of the time it's going to be very very close to the forecast in a way where if there is an initial

13:52

Speaker A

So, coming into the session, this is going to be my fair price, just the opening price of the 9:30 a.m. session.

14:09

Speaker A

same premise really and same philosophy behind the trade. Yep. Now of course there is also unexpected news that would mostly be Trump tweets, speeches, Fed chair, whatever. Example for this would be the price is here and then out of nowhere Trump tweets something extremely positive for the

14:26

Speaker A

Now, the first trade that I'll take once a day, every single session that opens, I will take a continuation trade.

14:40

Speaker A

unexpected. No one expected him to tweet this or that. So it's going to change the fair price of the futures. After the fair price has changed. I will use the most recent consolidation as the new fair price going forward. So this would be my new fair price. You are allowed to do two different

14:56

Speaker A

Pretty much it's just going to be in the direction of the opening candle assuming it aligns with a high time frame bias that I have and high time frame bias is just for reversion.

15:12

Speaker A

just very slightly to continue upwards just over the next few hours. So if you're able to get in as soon as you see that tweet, soon as you see the chart having a huge jump, then that slight positive EV, then follow it with optimal risk. Of course, after this, you could

15:25

Speaker A

So pretty much just inverting whatever happened for the previous 6 to 12 hours.

15:43

Speaker A

Okay, this consolidation is what I determined to be the fair price because it is where the price has stagnated after an unexpected news event. So these are pretty much the only ways to trade my strategy. Continuation, reversion, continuation, reversion, continuation, reversion. In terms of

15:59

Speaker A

But the main entry signal that I use is literally just the opening candle. It allows me to get in a slightly plus EV trade on a proper environment.

16:05

Speaker A

Because it's probably going into more of a price discovery area. Y maybe not like within alltime highs or anything but just generally speaking in comparison in these trades you're targeting the fair value in the reversion here you're targeting the fair value but the drift is obviously very

16:19

Speaker A

Then when you pair that with optimal risk, you just want to take as many trades as you can with your bias.

16:34

Speaker A

far it's going to continue reversion so easy you just mark out that exact price the market open at and just revert to that. But like you said, the continuations are hard. What I will do for continuations is give myself the largest possible stop-loss. Okay. And the reason why I do that is

16:50

Speaker A

So the first trade literally the color of the first candle as long as it breaks structure of the previous candles then I'm good, then I'm good to enter and I will do a 38 point take profit and a 25 point stop-loss for this trade.

17:06

Speaker A

want to have a stop loss large enough to where a small amount of these random simulations of price come down to stop you out. So most of the time I'll take these on funded accounts and that's because if you have a bias that small percentage of edge in your favor is much more valuable to

17:22

Speaker A

If the opening candle is larger than 25 points I'll just simplify it. Cut my contracts in half. That would make this 76 and that would make this 50.

17:35

Speaker A

a strong bias. Understood. So in terms of the large stop-loss in this scenario, for example, would that look to be below the sort of previous consolidation? Yeah. Okay. It's a very simple mechanical optimization. I assume on a live account even more optimizations would exist,

17:50

Speaker A

But that is literally it for the first trade. Just a very quick continuation of the opening move trying to capitalize on an unfair displacement.

18:03

Speaker A

to consolidate? I'll do two different things. First, I won't have a profit target. And it is a continuation trade, so obviously you don't know how far it's going to go. But if it's on an uptrend in my in my favor in a continuation and it's forming structure on its way up, if it ever

18:20

Speaker A

After that though, what I'm looking for is reversions to the opening price. Okay?

18:32

Speaker A

really important. So do you wait for a candle close? I will. Yes. Always waiting for candle closes on displacement and breakup structures. Understood. Yeah. Perfect. And then so these are, you know, the two setups that you've used to achieve over $1.5 million in payouts. What's

18:47

Speaker A

Again, opening price just 9:30 a.m. The initial move, whichever way it goes, it doesn't matter to me.

19:03

Speaker A

to this point where you have these very specific models specific numbers that you follow specific time windows how did you build you know that sort of really detailed approach y you know what led you to do that obviously you mentioned you know as we came into this episode like having that

19:19

Speaker A

All I'm looking to do is revert back towards what I claim to be the fair price, which is sort of what fair pricing theory is, just a return to the opening price.

19:36

Speaker A

is try and find the optimal risk for prop firms. There is going to exist a statistically optimal risk and take profit for every single trade you take. And that's based on a few factors. First, the draw down that you have available. the rules of the account like consistency, winning days,

19:52

Speaker A

And in terms of the entry, there's a few different entries that you can do. The first one is a displacement candle.

20:11

Speaker A

it's time to hear about Apex Trader Funding, the largest futures firm in [music] the industry. They have completely changed the game with their new evaluation. So far, they've already paid out over $600 million to traders around the world just like me and you. Now, not only that, Apex actually

20:29

Speaker A

Now, what I use for a displacement candle means the body of the candle must be larger than the body of the previous candle.

20:49

Speaker A

accounts which no other firm offers. Now, not only that, they have extremely clear rules with their revamp. There's no MAE rule, no 5:1 risk-to-reward rule, no hidden rules, no gray areas, clearly defined draw down models. So, you have two options now. end of day draw down and intraday trailing

21:11

Speaker A

And it also must close below the wick. So in this example, it's a slight displacement candle because it closes below the wick of the previous candle and the body is larger.

21:30

Speaker A

can you get 20 accounts, but there's different account sizes. So if they have 20k accounts all the way to 150k accounts. So you can get 20 of any of the account sizes that you choose. Not only that, you have various trading platforms from wealth charts to trade of to rhythmic. The

21:49

Speaker A

So that is the first and uh the easiest entry signal. Very mechanical, literally only two things to look at.

22:10

Speaker A

reason the reason for that is within the proper environment, you want to make sure that a trailing draw down does not impact your expected value. Basically, anytime you make profit, a draw down trails up. Yeah. You're losing that because if you make $1,000 and it trails up, then

22:25

Speaker A

If you're getting a displacement towards the fair price, then I would take a short.

22:43

Speaker A

everybody if it's a minus 2k plus 3k and then on what account size is that all that's a 50k that's a 50k yep and this is all futures NASDAQ only is what I trade but the funded account is where it

22:55

Speaker A

Which time frame would you be, you know, looking for that candle on? Only the one minute time frame. Everything.

23:13

Speaker A

risk on every trade and the optimal amount to have a profit target on every trade if you're modeling for the expected value of the prop firm. Now obviously it's a little bit difficult to simulate things like this. Even AI can't do it. I tried to have it simplify some things for me but it's it's

23:26

Speaker A

So everything we talk about will be on the one minute. Yeah. Everything here is 1 minute.

23:44

Speaker A

and then okay it went up good equity curve over time the strategy works then they're going to try it on a profit account and they're going to get confused why they keep hitting the max loss. Mhm.

23:52

Speaker A

The only thing I'll do on the 5 minutes is look for my high time frame bias. But you could also just look at the one minute for 12 hours previous and then still get that same bias.

24:08

Speaker A

the same risk-to-reward on every single account, every single trade on the evaluation. From there you can determine your pass rate. All you need to do is back test for your pass rate. And don't back test for your equity curve. Your equity equity curve like this one that doesn't matter on a prop

24:21

Speaker A

Um, that's pretty much what that's used for. But anyways, displacement candle will tell me to send the first entry in.

24:32

Speaker A

account, an evaluation like $100 divided by your pass rate. If your pass rate is 25%, that means you pass one out of four. So, it cost you $400 to achieve your funded account. Mhm. From there, you simulate that a bunch of times to find your exact pass rate. Divide it from the cost of your

24:49

Speaker A

And displacement candles are it's the first entry requirement. The second one is a break up structure.

25:03

Speaker A

is larger than this. That means you're going to make money. The expected value of a funded account is pretty much how much you can take out of the account in its lifetime. Only payouts, that's the only thing that matters. Yeah. Hitting your max loss, all you lose is $400. you don't lose the

25:20

Speaker A

Now, for break up structure, it is pretty similar to a displacement entry, but it's slightly more profitable.

25:36

Speaker A

I don't mean only do a 1 to2 or only do a 1 to 1.5 based on your account, your rules, the strategy. You should be following a static risk. And one static risk must be theoretically optimal. if there's so many to choose from and it's applied to these specific rules. So again,

25:53

Speaker A

The reason why I take displacements, even though they're less profitable, is because I have so many profit accounts that I'm trying to trade daily. Mhm.

26:06

Speaker A

you should choose. And then your expected value should be greater than your average cost to get a funded account. From there, you automatically know your strategy is profitable.

26:16

Speaker A

So, if I'm trying to get through 40 accounts, I want to spread my risk across all of my accounts and then take as many trades as possible with a slight bias towards a fair price.

26:31

Speaker A

recent months and probably going to continue to see going into the future as well. Yeah, 100%. The two things to be aware of. The first one is variance. 100%. Anyone who trades should be aware of variance. 100% basically just means how lucky you are or not. And you need a sample size

26:47

Speaker A

Okay. Now, for the break of structure entry, it's similar to the displacement, except it's just the traditional definition of structure.

27:00

Speaker A

down period. You shouldn't change after that because again, you could have a very positive equity curve on your valuations and you just hit a little draw down and you stop. That's not going to it's not going to get you that positive bias over time. in terms of what you were saying with

27:13

Speaker A

When there's a wick down here that is lower than the two candles previous, the candle before and the candle after.

27:32

Speaker A

get to the live account on a prop firm and then scale their capital. So you need to be aware of how that would change your expected value. Now, thankfully, it is a pretty easy formula to find your expected value of a live account. Assuming I had a $10,000 live account, the expected value

27:48

Speaker A

If the wick is lower and then a candle comes in here and it breaks the structure, then I will take a short position.

28:04

Speaker A

$10,000 because you start at 10K and then you have equity curves that pretty much oscillate around $10,000 in the long run. You do pay some fees which can decrease your equity curve a little bit, but assuming you're slightly above break even and you wouldn't be profitable on a live account

28:18

Speaker A

Just a standard break of structure entry. Now, the interesting thing about this with prop firms is...

28:32

Speaker A

you need to definitely definitely include that in your expected value calculation. And when it comes to these particular models, would they be something you can replicate on the live account or is this specifically modeled around prop firms only? All of this stuff with a specific profit

28:46

Speaker A

targets and riskreward is proper specific. If I was to trade a live account, I would only trade reversions first of all. Okay? I would only trade breakup structure. Second of all, okay, and third, most likely only trade expected news reversions. Those are the strongest of the trades that I take.

29:02

Speaker A

That's why I risk the most on them in my funded accounts. Um, but in general, on a live account, you would not want to do a static risk and a static take profit. You would want it to be

29:11

Speaker A

discretionary based on what the market is showing you. But in a proper environment, static is 100% the way to go. M and why why is it that the expected sort of news reversion is the sort of A+ setup for you, right? It's because news every single time is priced in. There's always a

29:27

Speaker A

forecast for it. You can see it on Forex Factory. Like 99% of the time it's going to be very close to that forecast. Sometimes it's going to be an outsider and the outsiders are pretty obvious to tell on the chart. Basically, it's just going to go up and it's going to keep going up. You won't

29:40

Speaker A

even see a short entry. So, you don't even get concerned with losing that sort of trade. Um, but the expected ones are 100% the strongest since the initial candle is 100% of the time unfair. The reason why the market open is a little bit worse is because sometimes this initial continuation

29:55

Speaker A

could be going towards a fair price that is up here. Mhm. The market open is not fair 100% of days at that exact price. Yes, it's just a very strong bias that you can use on profirms. But with

30:05

Speaker A

news, I I can't say 100%. But I'd say a very good portion of the time the pre-news price is going to be fair. And with these two models and and well examples that we have in front of us, they're

30:17

Speaker A

obviously showing sort of a bullish example with a reversion to the downside. I'm guessing the exact same would be the if it was to flip. If we were to have obviously the sort of push aggressively to the downside and the reversion upwards, it would just be the same principle just flipped over.

30:31

Speaker A

Yeah, exactly. I'll take reversions continuations anyway that the chart is showing me. Cool. So as we move on to the sort of the next question which would be in regards to when you've seen people trying to implement this you know what has been if you were to sort of really think about it what

30:48

Speaker A

would be the the key struggles or hurdles because no doubt you probably have people coming to you who have been trying your ICT strategies even maybe orderflow strategies or price action based or indicator based and now you're really taking them I won't say out of their comfort zone but

31:04

Speaker A

really just showing them hey here's a mechanical ical system and a lot of the time with those other systems you can make it mechanical but most people are obviously using a lot of discretion um and probably unfortunately a lot of people don't actually have an edge or an expected value

31:18

Speaker A

they just have a a a particular set of sort of rules and concepts that they're using and they might even be using them you know day-to-day in a random sort of uh combination y so when it's come to actually you know using a mechanical system you backed by data something that you've used yourself

31:35

Speaker A

And now you've seen success with other people as well of course. But what has been sort of that that hurdle if you if any if any you know that stand out to you when sort of making that transition making that change uh to trading in this this manner? Yeah 100%. I think the thing

31:51

Speaker A

most people get wrong about my strategy there's two things. The first one is that for whatever reason people are going to try and back test it on a live equity curve. They're going to pretend that they have a live account and they're going to back test for that equity and they're going to be

32:03

Speaker A

surprised. Why am I not making money? Well, you're using a static risk and using a static riskreward that's optimized for prop firms. If you personally want to optimize this bias for live accounts, go for it. But prop firms right now are so incredibly profitable where you should only be trading prop

32:18

Speaker A

firms. So basically what I'm saying is please back test in a prop firm specific environment. Find your pass rate, find your expected value. Don't be surprised when you use a static minus 500 plus 750 when it doesn't work on a live account because it's optimized for a prop firm. That is more of a

32:32

Speaker A

macro thing that most people are confused about and get wrong. But in the specific strategy, something most people are struggling with is the adaptation of fair price. For example, we think the open is fair, so I'm going to trade reversions to the open. It's not going to win every day. The

32:45

Speaker A

days that it doesn't win are days where you don't want to keep shorting into a bullish market or keep buying into one that's absolutely dumping. So, I try to adapt fair price if my trades are losing. So, I won't keep trading back towards the market open if it's trending heavily in one

33:02

Speaker A

direction. That's a little a little optimization that you can do. It does unfortunately change the strategy from very step-by-step mechanical to a little bit discretionary. But as you get better at it, you can add your own discretion. Of course, everyone has stuff that they know, stuff that

33:16

Speaker A

they've learned, some of it might work. You should try to use the bias of fair price. Maybe you have a different entry model than mine. Maybe you have other confluences, but if you're on a prop firm, at least use the bias. The bias is what is so incredibly profitable and that's why I take

33:28

Speaker A

so many trades per day. In terms of that, that was one of the questions I was going to have in terms of like do you have certain rules around the number of trades you take? Um do you have to have

33:39

Speaker A

put some sort of control or limits because even though it's mechanical obviously that human nature element of you know maybe taking quite a few number of trades, maybe having a number of losses.

33:48

Speaker A

Y how do you find one the focus on the discipline side to make sure that each trade is alongside your mechanical system um versus you know maybe taking a handful of trades that were with the mechanical system but taking losses y and then in the process of going on tilt and then overtrading

34:11

Speaker A

because you know that you're taking a large number of trades in a day but then suddenly does that open the door to you going off system and going off your mechanical playbook. 100%. Just with the opportunity to take so many trades throughout the day, I guess it could be very easy to fall into

34:26

Speaker A

that gamblers mindset of I just want to enter. I don't really care where it's going to go. But there's a few things that I could say regarding that. Personally, if I'm trying to trade reversion and I lose three in a row, then I'm done. It's just a market that's most likely not going to

34:39

Speaker A

revert according to my statistics. So, I'm just done at that point. Second, tilt on prop firms is a very interesting thing to talk about. Most people attribute all of their losses on profits to going on tilt, but it's not actually as bad as most people think. It's actually a completely

34:54

Speaker A

random entry, which should be break even expected value. The only thing that changes is you're introducing a bunch of unneeded variance. You can have the possibility to blow your account or possibility to have huge wins. The problem with huge wins is they're usually capped because it's

35:07

Speaker A

a prop from environment. But going on tilt is not really a problem for me. Uh, I think just because I have such a statistical approach where I know if I follow it step by step, I'm expecting to make X amount per month and I don't really get mad at a loss because I know it's just part of the

35:22

Speaker A

system. It's part of a positive equity curve of my bankroll that can have down moments at some time.

35:26

Speaker A

The most important thing though is to simulate back up your confidence that you know it's going to make money in the long run. An additional thing that I'll tell people with tilting, and like I said, it's not that bad because it's just break even if you're randomly trading, and it's not

35:40

Speaker A

the worst thing, but if for some reason you feel you're going into tilt and you have an account that's at $2,000, you're going to get a payout from it soon. If you're on Tilt, do not trade that account. You're risking $2,000 of your account to win whatever. So, it's break even. But if you

35:56

Speaker A

go on Tilt, you buy 20 new evaluations for $100 each. That's the same $2,000. It is much more fun and it will get you off tilt way faster to trade all 20 of those evaluations correctly. Instead of just gambling and coin flipping your one funded account, it's about to get a payout. You can risk

36:14

Speaker A

the same amount, have more fun, make more money, and then your downside is capped because if you're trading 20 evals individually, your risk will spread across all of them. Worst case, you have a really bad pass rate because you're gambling them and it's like 30, not 30%, 20%, 15%, whatever. At

36:32

Speaker A

that point, you're not coin flipping $2,000 worth of expected value, your variance is extremely reduced because it's spread across 20 valuations. So, if you ever go into Tilt, do it on the eval, not the funded accounts. Mhm. Would you say as well when you're trading these accounts as you say

36:48

Speaker A

about individually is that individually in terms of per firm or do you mean literally each account even if let's say you have five or one firm are you trading each of those account individually or you trading say the five set at this firm five at this firm get 20 at that firm whichever it may be

37:03

Speaker A

like how do how are you doing that are you sort of treating them as an individual firm set of evals or individual accounts yeah so let's talk about how I'm able to place 30 trades throughout the day. Yeah. I'll just simulate everyone a random New York session. I'm just going to draw

37:18

Speaker A

a random curve, a random chart. It could even go like that. Like it doesn't matter where it goes.

37:23

Speaker A

This is just going to be a New York session. I'm going to trade it from 9:30 until 11. And the way I'm getting 30 accounts in is I see this is the fair price. I'm just going to trade toward to

37:33

Speaker A

and from it the whole session. And there's a few different entries that I could take. Obviously, the displacement entry is going to give me a bunch of entries. And if it's coming back down, like 95% of the time, there is going to be a displacement. Sometimes it reverts in one candle. So, I can't

37:47

Speaker A

really catch that. But most of the time, I'm gonna have a a reversion there, there, there, there, there, there. Just so many reversions throughout the day. And what I do is I notice how many points are in my favor on this one, how many points are in my favor on this one? And then, of course,

38:02

Speaker A

trade the different account based on that because it's optimal to do so. But in terms of getting that many trades throughout the day, um days like this are actually harder. Days where it's going up and down, staying near the fair price is much harder. Another example of or like a day where

38:18

Speaker A

it's only going one direction. So it go like this, it won't revert. It'll continue going down. Maybe it'll stay stagnant and continue going down like a non-reversion day. Obviously, those are worse for me because I have a bias back towards 9:30 here. Yeah. And it doesn't revert. So most my

38:32

Speaker A

trades are going to be losers. Not all cuz I get in here and maybe I hit take profit. Get in here, maybe it wins, maybe it doesn't. But that's three entries and when it's stagnant, I'll usually take a trade in the stagnation. The reason for that is again I do have a bias and if my bias is correct,

38:48

Speaker A

then it's slightly profitable to take that trade with an optimal risk. Now days like this, I do what's called layering evaluations. I don't really want to copy trade because it just gives me extra variance that there's not really any need to take if I'm able to get in a bunch of different

39:02

Speaker A

trades. Mhm. So, what I'll do is I'll send one account in here and if there's some structure here and it breaks structure again, I'll send another one. But basically, I'll enter on displacement really early and if it breaks structure, I'll get in again on another account. So, these moves here,

39:18

Speaker A

they give me basically two entries, but the same exposure. Okay, just reducing variance through a little bit of a And would it matter if it's on the same firm or or different firms? It doesn't matter as long as the accounts and you know the rules are right. as longable to your system. Yeah. As long

39:33

Speaker A

as you've optimized for the risk-to-reward and the specific rules, it doesn't matter which prop firm you traded on. It does make it easier just to do all within the same one because my evaluations are mostly static. Even if I see 50 points to a fair price, I'm not going to go for 50 points in

39:46

Speaker A

the eval. I'm only going for 38 because 38 is optimal according to my static risk-to-reward.

39:51

Speaker A

Mhm. And then in terms of uh as you mentioned the sort of free loss rule that you have would is that per session because as you mentioned like you'll do this particular session obviously probably one of the more popular trading sessions the New York open but then as you said the lunchtime Asia you

40:06

Speaker A

say London as well. Yep. Works for London. So when you have the free loss rule is that for that session then you stop. Yeah it's three losses in a row in one session in a row. Yep. In a row.

40:17

Speaker A

Three in a row. It should be pretty clear that the price is trending in one direction and just not reverting. But days like this where it's a little choppy, maybe it could still come back. These days, I'm just going to keep taking trades. It's just these right here where I lose three attempts

40:29

Speaker A

all very quickly. And you can see price moving away still. Yeah. Okay. At that point, there is something that I don't know. For some reason, the fair price is up here. I don't know something. So, I'm not going to trade anymore. And when something like that happens, let's say, and then it moves on

40:44

Speaker A

to the next session. Yep. is your fair value then this let's say in this scenario this area here y um which then again you would mark out and then be waiting to see what price does in the next opening

40:54

Speaker A

session. Yeah, exactly. So going into following sessions the new fair price would be up here.

40:58

Speaker A

Understood. 9:30 is not a target after 11:00 a.m. Okay. It is just a high time frame bias for reversion because in the long run markets are reverting. Markets are reverting on the 1 second, the 1 minute, the 10 minute, the 1 hour markets are reverting. And the reason why 930 is only a

41:15

Speaker A

high time frame bias is because it's too far in the past for it to still be considered a fair price. If for some reason 930 was fair and it was all the way up here, when volume is introduced,

41:25

Speaker A

it would 100% come back down to 9:30. Mhm. But obviously it's not. So I didn't pretty much disclassify 930 as a fair price going forward after 11. Okay. So you won't there wouldn't be a scenario where you're using say on that day uh the 9:30 or previous days sort of fair value

41:41

Speaker A

prices. is always based on what the latest most recent session open and where that fair value been placed in or news related wise where that's been placed in right now. Yep. And fair value could change throughout the New York session if for some reason there's an unexpected tweet or something

41:57

Speaker A

like that. Yes. And you get a very quick move up then you 100% have to adjust fair value to the consolidation after that tweet. Understood. Okay. One last thing about fair price and different sessions is a little bit discretionary, but you can try to apply it as best you can. Between 11

42:12

Speaker A

to 2 p.m. there is basically no volume. It's kind of a dead time in the market. So, it is possible, slightly possible for price to be trading at an unfair price between 11 and 2 p.m. Mhm. Then when

42:26

Speaker A

the 2 p.m. session opens, which is another session that I trade, if 2 p.m. opens down, I will try to trade it all the way back down to 9:30. Okay? Basically just using the influx of volume from the 2 p.m. session as a continuation trade and a reversion trade back towards what could possibly

42:44

Speaker A

be a fair price. Again, it's a bias. And if I'm taking like a one to four risk-to-reward, then my bias only needs to be right about 20% of the time. And it should be pretty easy to have that

42:55

Speaker A

bias especially on a prop firm. Then just pair that with optimal risk and you can be incredibly profitable. When it came to separating the accounts, you know, with uh different consistency rules for example, do you just find when it comes to say large trades like this example, would you

43:10

Speaker A

just purely take those only on evaluations or funded accounts that don't have the consistency?

43:15

Speaker A

Yes. or is there a world where you know even if it has a consistency you would just make sure that every trade is fitting the similar R. So in terms of this you know particular example one to four you would just have to keep hitting one to fours on that account so that consistency sorts

43:29

Speaker A

itself out or would you purely just say make it easier for yourself by saying okay let's just take them on no consistency either. So I'll add some little space here to talk about this um with a 1 to four on a consistency account you should never do that. Mhm. The reason why is in order to pass,

43:46

Speaker A

if it's 20% consistency, then you need 20 RR. Basically, 20%\* 4 gives you 20 because it's five trades of four riskreward to be up 20. Mhm. Now, it is going to take you most likely 3 to 6 months

44:03

Speaker A

in order to keep doing 1 to four once a day. It is going to take about 3 to 6 months to get your 20 RR if you're doing minus 1R plus 4R once a day. And the reason for that is because of oscillation.

44:15

Speaker A

So assuming you start here at zero and your goal is 20, we'll even assume you're a very profitable trader with this strategy. If you go up four, down one, up four, down one, it is not possible to continue that exact same profitability all the way up to 20. Mhm. Realistically, you're going to win

44:33

Speaker A

four, lose 1 2 3, win four, lose 1 2 3, win four, lose four, win four. Like, you're going to have you're going to have a positive equity curve if your strategy is good. But it's going to take you

44:44

Speaker A

absolutely forever to reach 20. That is another reason why I prioritize the lower risk-to-reward of like a one one or a 1.5 on the consistency accounts. It's because I'm much I'm getting to the goal much faster because the goal here if I'm doing one one is only to hit five R. And

45:01

Speaker A

with a one to one I am still going to oscillate and it's going to take a little bit of time but significantly faster than getting all the way up to here. And your win rate naturally will probably be higher as well. Yeah, the win rate definitely is higher if the lower your profit target is. And

45:15

Speaker A

the higher your win rate, the faster you're going to pass the valuations and get towards payouts. And what would you say in terms of uh the limitations that you face? Is there like you are at 1.5 million right now in under 18 months which is incredible but would you say there's

45:29

Speaker A

like almost a cap when it comes to trading in this manner which might be around that sort of figure 1.5 maybe 2 million etc. Y um obviously there's more futures firms that are coming out every single day for better or worse. Y like what what is your mindset when it comes to saying okay these

45:46

Speaker A

you know the top five or top 10 firms I've already sort of you know maximized my return and sort of moved to live. So the opportunity cost might not be there anymore. That expected value might not be there anymore for the system, but now you have a lot more options that might be available. Yeah.

46:01

Speaker A

You know, what does that look like for you when it comes to okay, making that decision of okay, maybe we have to go to some of these newer firms. How do you look at that? How do you sort of observe

46:11

Speaker A

that and make your calculations accordingly? Or is it just a risk you have to take in terms of okay, yes, the rules might be similar, but then you're not sure about, you know, achieving certain payout amounts. Right. It is it is a little bit of both. I think the most important thing to do

46:25

Speaker A

is understand how your expected value changes as you move to a live account. Every single pro firm in their help center will tell you exactly when they move you to live exactly what the rules are on live. So you could simulate that as well. Find out the expected value of that proper

46:36

Speaker A

specific live account. Okay? As well as if you have five funded accounts with whatever balance, understand that when you go live, they're removed and they become the live account. So any profit that you had there is no longer your profit. Mhm. So what I do now is mostly optimize my approach

46:51

Speaker A

around the live accounts. When I first started, it was only optimized for the funded accounts because like a year and a half ago, there was basically no risk of ever going live. But now everyone goes live on prop firms. As soon as you make a little bit of money, they're trying to move

47:02

Speaker A

you live so that everyone can make money. And it's a good thing, but you need to be aware of how your expected value changes and then optimize that as well. Basically, the way I structure my approach to firms that move me to live is I want to only go live when it's going to make me money. So,

47:17

Speaker A

I see the requirements for going live. I know if I go live with this firm, I'm getting a $15,000 expected value account. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to keep my SIM funded balance below $15,000. I'll I'll trade in between 13 and 14K. If I go over 15K,

47:32

Speaker A

like I run it up to 20K and I get moved live, then I lost 5K in expected value. So, I optimized for how I'm getting moved live and the expected value there. So, then my approach specifically will only

47:42

Speaker A

make me money if I go live. Understood. There's also a bunch of different firms coming out like you said, and I definitely love trading with new firms. Um, new firms have very good payout policies because they're trying to compete and get into a very difficult market. If it's a new firm,

47:56

Speaker A

they also have to pay you out or else the reputation's gone and then they can't grow.

48:00

Speaker A

So, these new firms are actually kind of a little gold mine because they have really good rules and they have to pay you out or else their company's not going to make it. So, I like to get into these

48:08

Speaker A

new little firms and I'll only trade one account at a time. Okay, I wouldn't grab five evals, get five fundeds, make $10,000 on all of them just in case, right? I'll start with one, I'll get the payout, reinvest that payout. Now, I'm going to run five funded accounts and go for max payouts.

48:22

Speaker A

Understood. And in terms of the let's say breaking down the numbers that 1.5 million, what's the sort of cost um to make that sort of amount so far for you? It's about 400,000. Really? Yeah. Okay. So, it is quite expensive, but I started with about $5,000. You started with 5,000. Y first month,

48:38

Speaker A

I made $17,000. Second month I believe was another 20 and then 40 and then 60 and then 80 and then 100. And it unfortunately is getting a little bit lower. So, I'm not able to stay above six figures

48:50

Speaker A

every month. It's mostly like 100, then 75, then 60, then 100. Is that because of like sort of the changes in terms of moving to live, etc.? Yeah. Expected value is getting a little bit worse because prop firms are increasing their prices. Just just straight up. Um, but it's still very

49:03

Speaker A

possible to make six figures a month, especially if you're new. If you're new to prop firms, they're not going to try and limit you and send you live until you've proven profitability. So, if you were to just come on to Prop FMS today, you could 100% hit a few six figure months in a

49:15

Speaker A

row before eventually it would come down to about 50, 75, 100K a month. And would you say that obviously this is a an amazing opportunity you know and and you've achieved such a great success with the changes. Would you say that your mindset is to develop something for a live account

49:34

Speaker A

and develop something that you would whether it's a live account on a firm or just your own personal live account now that you've achieved these figures for yourself and and have this return. Is that where your sort of mind goes next? Yeah 100% profits were an excellent way

49:46

Speaker A

to build the bankroll. M um I do have a bunch of money in my funded accounts right now. So if I was to stop spending and only go for winning days and just withdraw all of that, I'd probably get about

49:55

Speaker A

250k back. Okay. So if I just totally stopped trading profarmms right now and just only did winning days, I could get about 250k back more. So then it's like 400k spent, 1.75 million in profit, which is a really good amount to start your own live account, obviously like seven figures. But

50:12

Speaker A

my main goal right now is to get to a $5 million net worth and then open a hedge fund. So I want to trade strategies like this and capture inefficiencies in the market on a live account but with profit specific live accounts. You can take a similar approach where you're optimizing

50:26

Speaker A

expected value. The reason for that is they're not traditional live accounts. A traditional live account is $10,000 in your balance. You grow it. Whatever your payout is, you can take it whenever just like it's a normal brokerage account. The proper specific live accounts still have a bunch

50:38

Speaker A

of rules. Thankfully they do have bonuses but they have draw down limits. They have payout limits. They have payout splits. But the bonuses are the best part. So when I move to live, I will optimize for my chance to receive that bonus. A quick little example with Lucid or Tradeify. If

50:53

Speaker A

you make $4,500 on a 150K live, then you get a $4,500 bonus, which is great because if you're essentially you start with zero and you have a $4,500 max loss, if you reach plus400, you get an extra $4,500 added to your account. So the expected value there is basically doubled because

51:13

Speaker A

if you make 4.5k then you get a 4.5k bonus. So I will optimize for my chance of getting that bonus and the instant I hit 4.5K in the account I'm not going to trade it again just because I want to get

51:23

Speaker A

to that bonus and I want to receive it. If I'm at 4.5K and I'm risking that 4.5K try and like double it again and get it to 9K. Most people think okay I'm trading with lot of capital. I want to grow

51:34

Speaker A

it. But you need to wait until the bonus hits your account. And the reason for that is if you're at 4.5K worth of account and you have a 4.5K bonus that should be coming in in a few weeks once you

51:45

Speaker A

qualify for it and you still risk that. You're actually risking 9K when 4500 when your account only has 4,500 in it. So there's a few ways to optimize around the profit specific live accounts.

51:56

Speaker A

That's mostly what I'm doing right now. But in the future definitely the goal is to run my own hedge fund. Understood. Would you say that a large part of this in terms of being able to be disciplined, stick to the mechanical edge is understanding what a mechanical edge actually means uh in

52:14

Speaker A

terms of you've done the data, you know the numbers and that only by sticking to it and following that process will the again as you say you can't say guaranteed in trading but this is closer to a guarantee or at least a understanding you know how they say you know trade statistics

52:33

Speaker A

understand your numbers. That's essentially what you're doing when you're trading mechanically and it may be a bit of a leap or change in mindset that a lot of traders probably have to do. Like, have you always traded this way or did you trade more discretionary before? I have always traded

52:48

Speaker A

with the statistically optimal proper approach. The strategy has pretty much been the same for 16 months. When I first started out, I was kind of messing around with the strategy. Um, but the risk-to-reward, how much you risk per trade, what your profit target is per trade,

53:02

Speaker A

that must be statistically optimal or you're not maximizing your potential on the prop firms.

53:07

Speaker A

Understood. Well, now we're going to go over actual trade examples from the charts. Right.

53:12

Speaker A

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53:27

Speaker A

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Speaker A

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53:49

Speaker A

You get two full weeks for free [music] to test everything out. And if you're already trading prop, choose Ninja Trader as your platform at checkout. It's the best platform for the job. So go check it out and let's get back to the episode. All right, so there is no news this week. So I'm

54:07

Speaker A

going to go over Tuesday, July 14th, and then Wednesday the 15th because those were the red folder days of last week. Mhm. This was CPI. This is 8:30 a.m. red folder news. Like I said earlier, it's priced in. So this right here is the price before news. Obviously, green candle means it

54:24

Speaker A

started here and ended up there. So this is going to be the fair price going forward. Now in terms of the entry, of course, every entry is going to be short just back towards this fair price here.

54:35

Speaker A

Now what I'll do is I'll wait for a displacement candle or a break of structure. Now we can analyze them one by one. First, this is not a displacement candle. Two qualifications needed. The body must be larger and it must close below the wick. This one only the body is larger. So no displacement

54:50

Speaker A

here. Then we do get a break of structure right here. This is obviously structure because it is a wick lower than the two candles next to it. Okay. From there breakup structure and my target is going to be all the way back down here towards the fair price. When you say the the wick side of

55:06

Speaker A

things is that with the understanding that on the lower time frame. Yeah. Because normally structure for people, you know, the if you will the conventional way or how people observe it is they observe it like lower lows, lower highs, etc., right? And then that being a break here

55:20

Speaker A

below the previous low. So is it just taking the mindset of without having to go into the seconds etc. that that would in this essence be low lower high and then that broke. Yep. Uh and then obviously the next candle obviously trying to break and then it's broken through. Yeah,

55:35

Speaker A

exactly. So, I'll just use these little intra intra candle structures like normally structure obviously stands out a lot more and the more it stands out the stronger it is. Gotcha. I just would use these because it's going to give me a pretty easy entry and it's just something I can

55:50

Speaker A

mechanically say the instant it closes below this when I classify structure then I'm just going to short. Got there's no thinking is it going to go down? I don't know. I'm just going to enter. So having speed and having kind of a an aggressive approach is very good. And what would you need to

56:04

Speaker A

do in terms of uh execution? Are you executing off a phone? You got to trade on Trading View.

56:09

Speaker A

Like what's going to allow you to have that speed? I've just traded on this computer for uh all 18 months. Really? Yeah. I have a desktop. I have Trading View and Forex Factory open. And I have all my prop firms on this computer. Um I've just always done it. Didn't really want to switch

56:22

Speaker A

away. Um but one important thing that I will add for the entries is you can look down here at the bottom right. You can see the clock. Right now it's 11:40 and then 50. As soon as this hits 51,

56:33

Speaker A

then you're noticing like it's the next second. So, as soon as it's going to hit 60 and then 61 or like the next minute, you know that the candle closed. So, I'm just watching the clock and then boom, next minute I check over here to see if it closed and then enter. So, it's like split second.

56:47

Speaker A

Did it close below? Yes or no. So, just very easy aggressive entry style that I take. So, in terms of this one, stop loss goes above the structure. I guess there's actually a few different options for the stop loss. Okay. basically optimize for your take profit first. Okay, on a proper environment.

57:02

Speaker A

So, I'm seeing 170 167 points in my favor. Now, what I'm going to do is I'm look at my dashboard, which is just coded to tell me the optimal risk for all of my accounts, and it's going to say you

57:12

Speaker A

need 150 points on this one, 200 on this one, 175 on this one. This is closest to 175. So, my profit target is just going to be 175 points. After it hits fair price, it's essentially random.

57:23

Speaker A

Okay? But in this case, it's close enough to my take profit where I don't really have a problem letting it run for an extra seven or eight points. Now, the stop loss on the other hand is going to be essentially random. It's going to be static, but again, optimized based on a prof.

57:38

Speaker A

Because if my profit target down here is 175 and it's telling me to use one contract or whatever, so it's going to make me exactly 3,500 or whatever with one contract. Then the stop loss, if my account is telling me to risk 500, then it's going to be at that amount of points be at

57:53

Speaker A

25 points. if okay with one contract because my profit target is what I'm really optimizing for like it's just going to be 3,600 for the specific account based on the expected value of it okay then the stop loss is just going to be whatever the reciprocal of the take profit is basically um

58:10

Speaker A

so it's going to be completely random I guess in a way where the takerit is more important that's interesting very interesting because obviously you know a lot of people will take the the opposite mindset with it sort of focusing on the stop loss and normally the conventional rule being you know

58:26

Speaker A

an invalidation point right so this kind of goes against that in the sense that you're focused on the takerit and then optimizing that so which then will then dictate the stop loss accordingly uh for for the dollar amount right exactly because there's a bias my bias is all the way reverting

58:42

Speaker A

down towards a fair price do you ever find though with that methodology that price could take you out then still the whole bias and everything still be intact 100% but thankfully I have 45 accounts I'm ready to enter again Okay. Okay. Every entry in the direction of my bias, win or lose. So, this

58:57

Speaker A

would just be the first and kind of the only entry in terms of the reversion towards the pre-news price. But there's also a bunch of entries within this move down that I could layer in on more funded accounts or valuations. Here's a really good example. There's a bunch of structure here.

59:13

Speaker A

1 2 3 four wicks that have not broken this level. So, it's outstanding structure. And this candle, very strong breakup structure, obviously. And then this one here, it's giving me 94 points. Okay, with this trade. So, this one seems like it'd be fine to go for 100 because I have some that need

59:28

Speaker A

75, some that need 100. Okay, usually it's like split up by 25 points. Just I guess that's how the the optimization turned out. But this one's going in for 100 and then the stop loss is going to be exactly whatever the account says. Um, the most common stop losses that I end up seeing from

59:43

Speaker A

my optimization is 25 points. Yeah. 37.5, 50, and 75. So, a few different options, but again, you have to optimize it for your specific account. So, stop loss is just going to be what it's going to be. I don't really mind if I lose here. Mhm. It totally could have been possible. I had a 50

60:00

Speaker A

point stop. Totally could have been possible. I had a 25 point stop. I don't really remember and it doesn't really matter. Um, all that matters is I traded according to my bias. Okay. Then, as it continues farther down, up and down, up and down. Um, you have outstanding structure here,

60:13

Speaker A

which gets wicked but not broken. So, I would not take a trade here. In terms of that trade, would that be on a different account? This one? So, the first trade? Yeah. Okay. Yep. So, every trade is on a different account. They're all getting layered in short because I want to

60:24

Speaker A

capitalize on the bias. How do you have to put a system in place for you to manage, you know, to make sure that you don't accidentally, you know, put a second trade on the same account? Yep. So, I

60:34

Speaker A

use trade of eight. Okay. Because I'm able to open literally 10 trade of eight tabs. Okay. And I just start on one prop firm, start sending them all short, go to the next one, sending more short as long as the bias is short, obviously. But another thing you can do is take evaluations. So as these

60:51

Speaker A

two funded trades are still running short, you can take an evaluation trade here. And the reason for that is it's still a break of structure. So it's a strong entry. Yeah. But if I felt I had too much exposure to this trade where I had like a funded account. Exactly. I'd already seen a

61:07

Speaker A

very nice reversion for 100 or so points. I might think I don't really want to short the bottom on more funded accounts because I am getting a bias. I'm getting an edge, but this one is way more of

61:17

Speaker A

an edge because I've entered way higher. So, more points in my favor. So, maybe I'm getting a little concerned. I have too many funded short right now. It's a little bit too much exposure. So, I'm going to send evals in. And evaluations, like I said earlier, it's going to be 38.25. So pretty

61:32

Speaker A

much at least half of my trades would be 38.25. Interesting. And the other half obviously would be the funded accounts going as close to fair price as the risk on the account says. So this one would be 38 points for evaluation. It loses but whatever. Then here comes 930. Now this is

61:48

Speaker A

a really important one. But does it lose or does it I guess that one won. It ends up taking profit and then Yeah, I didn't even notice. I guess that one won. Mhm. But here comes 9:30 which is

61:58

Speaker A

very important. Now, if you mark this out and say this is my fair price cuz it's 930, unfortunately, you're going to be wrong. And the reason for this is because when the market opened, the volume came in and it's going to move to a fair price, which is the pre-news price. So, it instantly comes down

62:16

Speaker A

and taps the pre-news price. If for some reason it opened up in like maybe like a continuation of the news, if the news was so green, like more green than the the forecast, Yeah. then the open would be fair. So if it continued up, I'd only revert to the open instead of the pre-news. But okay,

62:33

Speaker A

when trading news, the news price is stronger than the open, especially when it opens and comes right back down to it because there's an influx of volume here and it's able to get towards that fair price. From here, I would delete this one. No longer look at the open at all. I'd only look

62:48

Speaker A

to trade to the pre-news price. Now, in terms of the entries, you're not going to get much unfunded here just because it's really close to it. Yep. So, the only thing you can really do is take displacement candle entries towards the fair price. I don't have any funded accounts that

63:03

Speaker A

need 33 points. Mostly it's going to be larger. Sometimes I do, maybe 25 points, but this looks like a great example of an evaluation trade. It's giving 38 points or so in your favor. So, it seems pretty strong for a 3825 eval trade. After that, I would continue to revert towards this price here.

63:22

Speaker A

There's nothing that has convinced me that fair price is anywhere else. Mhm. I would need a huge volume spike in one direction. Like if there's there's a good amount of consolidation here and consolidation is usually what I confirm to be a fair price. So would you say that consolidation

63:36

Speaker A

almost might even be the fact that you had your 930 price and then you had your news price and we sort of just trapped in between 100%. So what I'm going to do is just I'm going to stick to my

63:45

Speaker A

bias. Yeah. As strongly as possible trade towards my bias of the previous news price down here. But if it broke structure up, see there's like 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 wicks or whatever. It's just not

63:57

Speaker A

breaking back up. If it broke structure up, then I would adjust there price to right here, which is the most recent consolidation. But it breaks down right here. Breaks this structure. Another nice Eval trade for 38 points back towards the pre-muse price. There's also a few other entries in here.

64:13

Speaker A

This seems like another good one. I believe I took just these three entries on this day, but it's only 10:00 a.m. and I've already won a bunch shorting back to the pre-news price, but the pre-news price is still fair. So, I'm going to trade back towards it from the other side. I'm

64:29

Speaker A

just trying to get through as many accounts as I can every single day. Now, this is not an entry.

64:35

Speaker A

None of these are displacement candles, okay? Because none of them are closing above the wick.

64:40

Speaker A

Even if it did close above the wick, I wouldn't take it cuz it would already be back at the price.

64:44

Speaker A

Yes, this one is a displacement candle, though. This one's not because it didn't close above the wick, but this one clearly closes above all three of these wicks and the body is much larger. So, another nice trade. This one's giving 65 points. So, it could be possibility take it unfunded for

64:58

Speaker A

50 points if I have a funded that needs 50, maybe 75. Um, I tend to go lower if it's like in the middle of two. Yeah, because as soon as it gets back towards this fair price right here,

65:08

Speaker A

it's essentially random. So, I don't really want to be exposed to that. So 50 would probably be a little bit better than a 75 point target in this example, but nonetheless very good for an evaluation giving 3825. Do you ever take both on an evaluation and a funded or do you you

65:24

Speaker A

know hard rule one account per trade? I try and do one account at a time. Sometimes I will copy trade like in this first trade I would copy trade that just because it's such a strong setup. It's the breakout structure which is the stronger of the two and it's right after news. Yeah.

65:40

Speaker A

such it's almost the peak high. Yeah, it just it stopped going up. It broke structure down. So, I'm really excited to revert that to the pre-news price. Another thing an optimization that people could do here's probably a good example of it actually is using some sort of an ATR and that

65:57

Speaker A

would be for your your stop-loss perspective, but of course keeping it static. So if I'm doing 25 and 38 with one contract of NQ features, this is -500 plus 760. Mhm. If I wanted to keep the same static, which you should do on the Eval, always do the same static, whatever works best for your

66:19

Speaker A

strategy, then you can if if for some reason I was going to enter here. It's just a nice displacement candle. So this is kind of an entry that I'd see. This one's giving me 76 points in my favor. Yeah,

66:31

Speaker A

if you double this and double this, now you have a 50 point stop loss and a 76 point take profit.

66:39

Speaker A

But what you should do is you cut your contract in half. So instead of using one contract, now you're using five micros. Yeah. And it's going to be the same. The dollar amounts remain. Exactly. The same dollar amount is the most important thing to do on prop firms because it's optimal. Mhm. So this

66:52

Speaker A

is a slight little optimization people could do. Obviously a little discretionary, but the reason why I like doing trades like this sometimes is I can take this entry here and then I see there's structure here. So if it breaks structure here, I could layer in another trade. Just get in here

67:07

Speaker A

off this break of structure. This one's giving 60 points. So I'd probably just go for 38 here. So now I'm in two evaluation trades short. A little bit of different entries, but the same bias, different risk exposure because one stop loss all the way up here. The other is pretty close.

67:21

Speaker A

So interesting. A little bit of optimization can allow you to get more accounts in. I used to do that, but now that I have so many accounts, that little 1% optimization that I can find in a few different places isn't really worth it. All I want to do is 3825 and get through as many accounts as

67:36

Speaker A

I physically can. So, I get through one here, it breaks structure again, displaces here, I'd get another one in there. I'd get as many accounts as possible in the direction of my bias. And like I said earlier, the only time where you would try to do a different one of the actual 76, like when you

67:54

Speaker A

should actually do 76 instead of 25 or when I'll do it is on the opening candle when it's more than 25 points. This opening candle is 43 points. And I guess we didn't even go over this continuation, but it is a continuation. The opening candle was red and we even thought the fair price was

68:08

Speaker A

down here. So it's kind of a continuation and reversion in one, which makes a really strong trade. Probably one that I'd take on funded. Usually evaluations are continuations are only for evaluations, but I'd kind of classify this as both because the fair price is down here. So,

68:22

Speaker A

it's kind of a reversion in itself. Then it seems to have hit 11:00 a.m. right here. There's no entries to take on this move up because there's no displacement candles, but that was the CPI day last week. Very strong reversion multiple times. Even went farther down, reverted, went back up,

68:41

Speaker A

reverted. So, really nice day there. Now I'll go to Wednesday for PPI. All right, here is PPI. So like I said with CPI, you can take continuations of the news if you're getting in here. I don't really like to do it. It's sort of an aggressive tactic to pass evaluations quickly. Um but I sort

68:59

Speaker A

of stay away from that mostly. Now all I'm going to do is try to revert towards the pre-news price and again stop after three losses. So let's look through to see what sort of entries there are.

69:10

Speaker A

This one is not a displacement because it didn't close below the wick. Yeah, same with this. Same with this. But then we get a break of structure. This one would be my first entry short. Stop loss seems like it'd be about 25 just because there's not too many points in your favor. But probably

69:25

Speaker A

something like 50 point take profit, 25 stop loss. After that though, there is no displacement here.

69:31

Speaker A

The reason for that is a displacement also has to displace a candle of the opposite color. Okay? You can't really displace a red candle because it's still going down. And unfortunately, nothing displaces this candle because the bottom's all the way down here. So, no entry there. Same. No

69:44

Speaker A

displacement here. It didn't close below the wick. Same here. Then we get the first displacement right there. Yep. That seems like a pretty strong entry. The stop loss is what it's going to be. I don't really do less than 25 points. I don't think ever in the New York session. Actually, I guess I

70:00

Speaker A

could say never. Never. Never less than 25 points in the New York session. And then 104 points in my favor. seems pretty strong to send for about 100 points if I have a specific account that needs that. Uh this was a displacement entry which is fine to take on funded but it is a bit weaker.

70:14

Speaker A

So ideally you would wait for this entry here which is just a break of structure right there.

70:19

Speaker A

Structure gets broken pretty much same trade all the way back down towards the pre-news price with the market open though didn't really give the best entries this day. It kind of chopped around wicks every single direction. No real displacement to the downside until this candle here. Yeah,

70:35

Speaker A

first displacement candle down. Definitely just going to short back towards the pre-news price. Um, unfortunately, I lost this one. I was going for 3825 and then barely stopped me out before unfortunately going to take profit in one candle. So, couldn't even re-enter really. Uh, I try not

70:51

Speaker A

to enter midcand. I'll wait until the close. It's just more confirmation. Um, after that though, it does drop even further down. So, um I will trade back towards this price here instead of trading back towards the open just like the previous day. I'm only trading back towards the pre-news

71:07

Speaker A

price because when it opened, it came down to the pre-news price. On non-news days, the open is going to be fair most of the time, like 95% of the time. But just on these news days, which news reversions are the strongest of the trades, that's why I'm showing them. Um this pre-news price is

71:22

Speaker A

going to be fair. Now, definitely could just buy all the way back up towards it. So, in terms of the entries, pretty much same thing as the other. There's a nice displacement candle. Same thing with a takerit, I'd probably go for about 75 if I have an account that needs that. And the stop

71:36

Speaker A

loss, honestly, just is what it is based on the account optimization. Could be 37 and a half, could be 50, could be 25. Um, I don't really care what the the price action is doing in terms of stop loss. I'm just trying to enter as many positions in my favor as possible. That one loses,

71:48

Speaker A

but then you get a nice break of structure. So, this one is the stronger entry and this is the one that ended up winning. Um, interesting thing here, about 76 points. So, you can do those five micros and do a 50 point stop, which gets it below that low. Probably more likely to win just because

72:03

Speaker A

uh the stop loss is much larger. So, you're able to realize more of your bias. Mhm. But again, 76 points in your favor. And as this one's going up, I could layer in more evaluations on its way up through more displacement or breakup structure. So, this one would go for 38 or something like

72:18

Speaker A

that with a 25 point stop loss. After that though, uh, it dumps all the way down here for whatever reason. I bought here off displacement trying to get it all the way back up to the previous price, but lost for the first time. Then this is not displacement because it's not displacing

72:34

Speaker A

the red candle. Then entered here off breakup structure. Eventually lost this one as well. Uh, and then I was done for the day because it hit 11 a.m. right here. So unfortunately, two losses to end off the session, but pretty good reversion here. And then of course, very good reversion of

72:49

Speaker A

the news. So again, just getting the bias in. Even though you're trading mechanically, do you find yourself just being human at times? Like let's say this session in particular, had some wins, had a few uh losses, finished with losses. Do you ever find yourself frustrated or or feeling heightened

73:08

Speaker A

in any way? Or do you are you you at this point is it become more of a a part of the process and you just kind continue to move on? Yeah, at this point it's honestly just part of the process. But

73:18

Speaker A

when I first started, it was definitely getting at me more and more if I was losing. The good thing about trading this many accounts and taking one trade at a time, all with a bias, is on average, you're going to be making money. Basically, the reason why a bias is so good on prop

73:31

Speaker A

firms is because you're utilizing the whole loss limit. Even if you only risk a fourth or a half, if you do it across multiple accounts through a bunch of different entries like here, here, here, and here, then you're essentially getting exposure to the entire max loss that they give you. So with

73:45

Speaker A

a bias, more often than not, combining up all the money across all of your accounts, the end of the day, you're going to be up. Plus, you're only risking the valuation fees. So your bank account is really going to be up as soon as you get the payout. So sort of just looking forward towards

73:57

Speaker A

those payouts and understanding losses are 100% part of the game and nothing you can do to avoid them. But the numbers lie in your favor as long as you have an optimal approach. And would you say, is there a bare minimum that you would think is best in terms of starting this approach? as you

74:11

Speaker A

said like you started with $5,000 you said like is that optimum or is there a particular number that you think hey if you don't have this this is probably not the right approach until you do yeah um I was definitely thankful to start with 5k I just made my money playing poker at the casino

74:25

Speaker A

so I was very thankful to have a a larger bankroll that means my ruin was very small um but if you're taking an approach like this where it is a little bit high risk high reward that's kind of the only

74:36

Speaker A

way to make money on props low risk low reward is not going to get you anywhere you have to utilize the prof capital that they're giving you. Um, so in my opinion, high risk, high reward is the way

74:44

Speaker A

to go. But you need to calculate your risk of ruin and you want it to be below 5%. Ideally, it's below 5%, but obviously you need a larger bankroll. Um, but the way you can calculate your risk of ruin is take your pass rate, maybe it's like 33% or 30%. Take your payout rate, meaning

75:01

Speaker A

your chance of getting a payout on the funded account. Multiply these two together and then you'll know, okay, so if I buy an evout, I have a 0.09% 09% chance of getting a payout, which means if I buy an Eval, I have a 91% chance of getting nothing. But remember, even with these rates,

75:17

Speaker A

it lies in your favor because you're spending $100 and then nine times out of 10, you lose $100. So you lose 900, but that time you win and you do get that payout, it's likely going to be about

75:28

Speaker A

$2,000 or more, okay? Because you still have expected value in your account after taking a payout. So net, you're making a bunch of money, but per EVA, it's a 91% chance to make nothing.

75:37

Speaker A

So basically do 0.91 to the power of 10. If you have $1,000 in your bank account, that will get you 10 evaluations. So that would be your chance of losing everything. Understood? I've got to tell you something. Hundreds of thousands of traders have already made the switch to Tradezella. And

75:53

Speaker A

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76:09

Speaker A

your weaknesses, the patterns you keep repeating without even knowing it. And it tells you in plain language what's working [music] and what needs to change. The moment you close a trade, your AI captures it automatically. Fully synced to your broker or prop firm. Zero manual entry,

76:25

Speaker A

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76:37

Speaker A

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76:50

Speaker A

Now, if you want that AI co-pilot, and see your trading excel, the link for Tradezella is in the description below. Use the code CF20 for 20% off your yearly subscription or CF10 for 10% off your monthly subscription. Let's get back to the episode. What is up, chart fanatics? Coming

77:07

Speaker A

to you live with some live market trading after we finished up that whiteboard session. Excited to get into it. I am trading on Tuesday, August 25th. So, let's see what we can do today. Here we have the chart. Haven't had any positions yet on my funded accounts. There was one continuation

77:23

Speaker A

just off the second candle from open, which is a pretty nice win, but I'm only here to show you funded accounts, which is the most important part. So, still waiting on a funded setup. Market has barely moved. It's just been reverting uh around fair price split as I'm recording this.

77:38

Speaker A

We are getting a nice move up. So, we'll be looking for funded account shorts back down towards what I think to be fair. So, definitely excited for that. The reason why I think this blue line here is fair is this is the chunk of consolidation right before the market open. Now,

77:53

Speaker A

I know market opened down here. But when it opened, it went straight up to this consolidation and then even farther beyond. So, open not likely to be fair. most likely this consolidation here. So I am going to be looking for a short reversion back to this consolidation fair price.

78:17

Speaker A

All right, in the first position just wanted to get in a little bit early. Uh we had a nice wick rejecting longs. Um basically it broke structure long but it did not continue farther up. Uh, so we'll just be looking for shorts back down to the open right now. Bit of an early entry,

78:33

Speaker A

but ideally this account would be winning 3,000. Unfortunately, it is a little bit too close to the open, so I have to get in early to get as close to my $3,000 target as possible. So, it's looking like 2520 as the profit target on this trade.

78:50

Speaker A

Of course, would be fine to let it run for 3,000. Actually, I'll just be letting it run for 3,210.

79:00

Speaker A

Just checked my dashboard and 3210 is the exact profit target that this account wants to win and it's got at least 80% of that in its uh pursuit down towards what I think to be fair. So, that should be fine. Basically, what I mean is like if I want to target 100 point win, then I need at

79:15

Speaker A

least 80 points in my favor to take that trade. If I only have like 40 points to fair price, there's no way I should let a trade run for 100. 80% 75 if I'm getting a little bit greedy is sort of the

79:24

Speaker A

mark that I continuously go off of. So we are in shorts. Just going to hold it all the way down for 3210 because that's what my account needs to win. All right, I will be entering on a second account

79:36

Speaker A

here just because we're getting more confirmation. Another wick rejecting longs and looks like it's about to displace this green candle. Uh it's a little bit 50/50 but strong enough for me to be taking another position. I guess I guess this one's bugged, but still just taking shorts. Um,

79:56

Speaker A

this account has a different target. Let me check. This one needs 1500. So, we'll be letting this one run for 1505. Not sure why this is saying that here, but I guess you can see the profit down here. All right. So, just hit profit target on the $1,500 funded trade. And then let's see

80:16

Speaker A

about the 3200 if I can get it. There we go. So, two funed trades in first reversion of the day.

80:23

Speaker A

Perfect setup so far. Now, I'm just going to chill a little bit. Needed to move away from fair price so I can take another reversion. Um, but that is two accounts down and got a few more to do. Also,

80:35

Speaker A

the one that won 1500, I will be trading it again. Uh, 1500 was just the first profit target of that account uh for today. The reason why is if I go back to it, you see the trade was pretty much from

80:46

Speaker A

here to here. Uh, like I said, I like to have 80%. Technically, it needs a larger profit target on the day. Uh, just according to my dashboard, which is which is optimized for that. It needs a larger profit target on the day, but I couldn't send it for like a 100 points all the way short because as

81:02

Speaker A

soon as price gets below fair price, its bias is going to be back towards it. And I don't want to be trading away from the bias for too long. I'll let it go for like, like I said, about 80%. Um,

81:11

Speaker A

so this blue line here would be 80% if my full take profit is 100% if that makes sense.

81:16

Speaker A

That is the most that I'll be willing to or the least I'll be get willing to give away. Um so very nice trades there. Layered in this one here just because there was a wick that failed to break

81:26

Speaker A

uh failed to displace long basically. Um obviously you can have two short confluences, you can have actual displacements and you can have failures to go long. The reason why it's not like too technical is because it's a bias. Um and with a bias the entry doesn't matter as much. Anyways,

81:41

Speaker A

just gonna wait for another move away and then I'll be looking for more reversions on this account number three that I had just taken the win on. Account number one, which I took a continuation win on and I forgot to record. Sorry about that. Uh, account number two,

81:56

Speaker A

which we took the big win on. I'm done for today. And then account number four. So, four fund is coming in today. We're going to work on all of them. See if we can get them all up into

82:04

Speaker A

a good amount of profit, but definitely need to wait for a move away. All right, I'm looking for longs back to the open. We just had a huge wick rejecting shorts failing to break structure. Now I just need a green candle to print and that will be enough for me to get in. It is pretty close.

82:19

Speaker A

So not going to have too large of a profit target, but oh thankfully it's going to drop down farther.

82:26

Speaker A

So we'll get another opportunity here once it moves away a little bit farther. So we have a larger profit target on our funded, which is always more fun. But it did technically just break structure short. So, I think it might be a little while until we see our long position opportunity.

82:45

Speaker A

I would not be taking this green candle even though it is a little bit looking like a displacement just because it did break structure short, which is the opposite of what I want to see if I want to go long. All right, I'll be taking another position long right now. Huge

83:00

Speaker A

wick rejecting shorts as you can probably tell. Uh anyways, we'll just be trading this one back up to the open. First one unfortunately lost because of whatever the hell that is. This one then is going to go for a little bit more profit because obviously we just lost some

83:15

Speaker A

money. But second attempt, final attempt for the day most likely because if I lose then it will be essentially breaking structure short and then it's just going to drift um likely all the way back down towards 6 p.m. So I will just be done. Um but good start to the day. Hopefully

83:30

Speaker A

we get a nice end to the day right now with this trade. All right, just broke structure short and stopped me out. That is it for today. So, quick little summary. We had continuation long on open, which I forgot to record. Uh, this one won me 1,200. Then first attempt at reversion,

83:47

Speaker A

wick rejecting longs, half a displacement candle was enough for me to get in onfunded. This one was 3,200. Then another wick rejecting longs. I think I got in on this candle. Something like this for another trade for 1,500. And then unfortunately bad way to end it, but that's just how it goes.

84:04

Speaker A

Two more attempts at longs. First one off double displacement. Uh this one also tried to be off double displacement. Got in a little early. Uh if I didn't get in here, I would have gotten in here and then lost anyway. So it's fine. Just trying to revert to the open, but it is not going to

84:16

Speaker A

be reverting today. Um two losses is fine because it's minus 2Kish. I think the account lost at 2K.

84:23

Speaker A

I don't know why it's so low, but minus 2K plus 5.7 or something like that. So net up on the day.

84:31

Speaker A

Also good when I lose a funded because I only lost the evals that it cost me to get there. Uh so kind of only lost like three or 400 bucks here because the eval um got like 33% pass rate. So pretty

84:44

Speaker A

cheap to take these losses which is why I'm just so aggressive with them as long as you're getting amount of points in your favor that you need. And these ones are all going to be realized in payouts pretty soon. I just need to get a few more winning days, but the expected value is there. So,

85:00

Speaker A

pretty strong day today. Few wins, few losses, but I'll take it. So, we'll be on to the next day.

85:07

Speaker A

What is up, chart fanatics? This is day two of live trading. Today, you can see on my accounts, I have three new funded accounts to trade with Blue Sky. They're on the buffer phase, so basically funded accounts. And then over here, FXI, I have two funded accounts to trade. I've got different

85:23

Speaker A

size accounts, 150ks here and some 50ks here. I'm going to be looking for $1,000 profit on these three to end the day. And then these two is going to be $6,000. So obviously very large difference in that optimal profit target for these different accounts. So we'll see how we can get through

85:40

Speaker A

those. The continuation I'm going to be taking on blue sky accounts. Got a nice 25 point trade here.

85:48

Speaker A

If I use two contracts, it'll make me thousands. Just going to wait for the close of the candle just to confirm it does actually break structure and then uh we'll be in for 25 point take profit.

86:01

Speaker A

Um I definitely need to wait for the close of the candle. All right, in continuation shorts. Bit of a bad fill, but nothing you can really do about it. Obviously lots of volume at the market open. Um barely broke structure,

86:19

Speaker A

but nonetheless it counts. It broke this and it broke this. So was going for a 25point profit target. Uh we'll see how this one plays out, but feels like a pretty standard trade.

86:30

Speaker A

The opening candle wasn't too biased. There were pretty large wicks on both sides, but uh opening 1 second was red. Higher time frame bias. The short opening candle was red. Brookke structure. Um a little bit weak displacement. Okay, TP.edge, but I don't care. A little bit

86:44

Speaker A

of a weak displacement, but no way. I'm not taking this, right? Uh, so we'll let this one play out.

86:55

Speaker A

All right, there's take profits. We'll be entering another one soon as this candle displaces. I can just use a limit actually. Just looking for it to go below the previous close and I'll just take another continuation short.

87:15

Speaker A

Um, I usually limit my continuations to the first five minutes. So, uh, we'll let this one play. Um, there is no real displacement for it to revert. So, um, I'm basically short biased until proven otherwise with displacement or breakup structure long, in which case then I would flip and then start going long

87:41

Speaker A

and uh, just these short account positions. No, no huge account positions yet. If we get two green candles, it's enough for me to classify as displacement. So, I would start looking for longs. It is kind of hard obviously to displace this one huge

88:00

Speaker A

red candle. But, if we get two green ones in a row, it's a little bit more confirmation, but of course, still holding shorts. Uh, risking about a one because if this candle were to turn green, then it would be above this one, which is why my stop is above that one.

88:13

Speaker A

Uh stop losses don't really matter on prop firms. It's all the same EV. The profitari is where the EV is generated or lost. So um that's why I care a lot more about those specifically. We'll see what happens with this trade though. It might be a longer one. Uh the initial volume seems to have

88:29

Speaker A

died out a little bit. First trade was great though just as usual continuation. So if this one loses then I will be entering on account number 567 which is my long biased account.

88:42

Speaker A

But of course, we'll hold. We'll wait. See what ends up happening with this one.

88:49

Speaker A

Seems to have hit its short resistance. Okay. So, I'm longing now. It is midcand. So, bit of an aggressive entry as well, but uh clearly shorts are getting rejected by this huge red candle. Um so, I'm long biased back up towards the open. Got a nice two contract trade for about or exactly 25

89:07

Speaker A

points. Um because the open is here. Possible fair price. There's a few. Obviously, the bias is long, so that's why I'm in longs. Um, for now, I'm just thinking it's near the open. Possibility it's all the way up here, but lots of consolidation at this level throughout the night. Would definitely be

89:25

Speaker A

interesting to consider. Uh, it's also where Asian session opened. I am on PSD right now, which is why you see the PST times, but yeah, just going to hold longs for now. back to the open and we'll see. Could obviously layer in more accounts here on this candle. We'd wait for a little more

89:48

Speaker A

confirmation. Then I'll get in with number 542 as well. All right. This one specifically needs a larger win obviously because it just lost a,000 on the first trade. All right. So, first account hit take profits. Second account I'm holding for 50 points. Um the target was 25. I lost

90:06

Speaker A

basically 25 points on the first trade. trades and now I need 50 points. So I'm just holding this one up to the consolidation above the open. Always possible the open is fair. Usually at at 25 after there is sometimes a volume spike which creates an unfair move. So instead of having the

90:20

Speaker A

open price is fair. I'm looking more towards that uh 24 after candle which is just what it looks like today. Obviously you can see the 25 after candle has pretty large volume. Uh anyway it's just going to hold once it takes here. Once it takes the 24 candle, I could go break even. Yeah,

90:40

Speaker A

it seems fine to go break even now because if it dumps, since opening candle was red, there is a slight short bias, at least for me. Uh, so when it wicks, what could be fair now, I'm just wanting like less exposure to that position. So that's fine. Break even. But anyways,

90:56

Speaker A

definitely a good trade to hold. Definitely not not ex like I personally am not going to exit early. See, it I thought fair price at 24 and it just wicked it. Um people would definitely consider having their profit target at fair price. Um but it is much more valuable to have a specific

91:13

Speaker A

profit target based on the prop firm environment. So not based on what the market is showing you. It is much better to have those static ones like I talked about in the previous live video. Um even though obviously based on what the chart is showing, it would have been nice to get out there,

91:25

Speaker A

but no. much much better much higher EV to have your profit targets set out for the prop environment specifically which is why I'm going to hold this one but definitely break even is is a good opportunity because again it's essentially random in my opinion once it wicks

91:41

Speaker A

what I think to be fair which as you can see it did so let's hope the randomization is in our favor still generating positive EB though because it is the firm's draw that I'm trading with and uh profit targets optimal so all right started up the recording again it's like one point from take

91:55

Speaker A

profit didn't want to jinx it But figured might as well capture it. U so still just in the same position. Had a nice displacement long. Okay. It filled one out of the two contracts. Oh man. So we got a little while maybe longer to wait because it just filled one out of the two. Anyways,

92:16

Speaker A

just going to hold. This is a one to two trade. One to two R by the way. Um so we'll give it some more time. All right. There we go. So, Blue Sky is done for today. These three accounts down here,

92:31

Speaker A

well, they're supposed to win a,000, I guess, that fills, but nonetheless, 1,000 was profit target on these. Um, they're not eval. They're like, it's a buffer phase where you got to make some money on the buffer before going to funded account. So, it's technically funed account,

92:45

Speaker A

expected value. Um, so pretty good of 3K to start. Now, hopefully we get another nice move away because I do have these accounts here. Um, with these accounts here, I'm probably going to be targeting I'll just target this area here as fair just because on its way up it consolidated

93:04

Speaker A

here for a little bit. Um, it could obviously be like here, but I'll extend it a little bit just cuz when I'm looking to short, oh man, it's going to be a long trade. 100 point trade. I could

93:14

Speaker A

obviously size up and get a 50 point trade. Like I could just double the contracts. So, we'll see exactly what market gives. Uh might have to be back to you guys in a while because it's going to take a while to move away um from from fair for reversion. All right, I'm in a six contract short

93:29

Speaker A

onfunded. Uh the reason why is I have $6,000 profit target and with 50 points that would be six contracts. So that's the reason for that. Just trading a one to one here. Um just thinking reversion is more likely than longs. And I just had a limit 50 points away from a fair price just

93:46

Speaker A

to make it a pretty easy entry. So we'll see exactly what happens with this one. It is very aggressive. I will admit. Uh plus or minus $6,000 is quite aggressive, but uh the expected value is definitely there. So, I'm in shorts quite early. Just my limit order got tagged. Unfortunately,

94:04

Speaker A

the candle didn't actually displace. So, bit of a weak entry. Could obviously get out, break even, and wait. Uh but it sort of long sort of gave up now. Just looking for shorts back to the open.

94:23

Speaker A

All right, getting a nice displacement short. So, I will get back to you guys when this trade finishes. I'm definitely not going to be altering anything mid trade. I'm just going to be holding all the way back to the open. No break evens because I think fair is at the open. So, obviously

94:36

Speaker A

not going to really go break even. So, we'll just let it play out. I'll let you know what happens.

94:41

Speaker A

All right, we're back. Been holding for a little while. Uh, but trade is looking good. But it never broke structure up. So there was no reason for me to exit. Had a nice break of structure short.

94:50

Speaker A

I considered setting the other account in. But uh okay. Okay. I considered setting the other account in but uh it would have been a little bit too close. I would have need to use like 10 contracts which is probably a little bit too aggressive. Um anyways, why is that twice happening now? Oh man.

95:09

Speaker A

Anyways, just gonna let it run. I was hoping I could catch it on camera, but now I got to commentate a little bit longer. We'll see. Um, just standard reversion trade. Um, I saw 50 points in my favor and I knew 50 points, six contracts at $6,000, which is just the profit target for my

95:27

Speaker A

account. Um, if it had gone up 100 points, then I would use three contracts because three contracts 100 points, $6,000. So, it's all about the profit target on the account. And then, of course, you want the profit target to be as close to fair price as possible. So, you can adjust your

95:39

Speaker A

contracts in that regard. But again, profit target is the most important part of all of this. Now, actually could be an opportunity to go break even just because it wicked essentially wicked what I think to be fair, which is my take profit, but okay, another one contract filled. Um, I guess

95:57

Speaker A

I could go break even, but it's probably not going to Okay, there. It's not going to matter.

96:04

Speaker A

All right. So, that is one, two, three of these smaller ones done and then one larger one done of 9K. Um, could have layered in another one here. Probably should have. Uh, 6K is like a lot though. Like $6,000 plus or minus is kind of a lot even for me. Uh, so one account at a time is

96:24

Speaker A

probably a little bit better to reduce variance. I'm just going to wait for another move away and then obviously another reversion. So, I will be back to you guys when we see another move away and then another entry on this account here. Whether it's 50 points for six contracts or 100

96:39

Speaker A

points for three just cuz I need to win 6K. All right, there is news coming out at 7 a.m. PST. So, 10 EST, the dude is speaking. So, probably not going to be taking any trades at 10:00 a.m.

96:51

Speaker A

afterwards or 7 my time obviously afterwards. And it seems a little bit too close to fair price. So, probably just done for the session. four for four on our accounts. 6K 111. So up 9K, four for four.

97:05

Speaker A

Uh pretty good result today. Obviously reversions played out once, twice, continuation played out once. Uh second continuation lost, but uh reversion made it back. So I guess four for five, whatever you want to call it. So anyways, done for today. Uh here were the trades from the other

97:22

Speaker A

days because I recorded the previous session was on Tuesday and then this one was on Friday. So, I figured uh I can show you guys what happened on Wednesday and Thursday as well. Um I was waiting for a really trendy day. I wanted to find a trendy day because those are obviously

97:35

Speaker A

worse for me version. I wanted to find a trendy day. Um but anyways, here's Wednesday. Wednesday I couldn't live for you guys because I was live trading for my students. But anyways, uh we have pre-news price here at 8:30 a.m. EST. That creates an untra move away. And then

97:49

Speaker A

on the open, I'm just buying midcand because the opening 1 second was green. You can see there's no wick here. Uh so it opened up and you could just take a very nice funded trade or EBS whatever you want. Uh back to the open after that consolidating here at pre-news price. Uh news is

98:05

Speaker A

priced in. So just looking for reversions back to the pre-news price. Maybe you catch something here. Uh if not definitely catch something in here. Great displacement here. So just trading back towards there and then it jumps all the way back down here. Displacement here. Break

98:18

Speaker A

structure here. Whatever you want to enter on. All seems great. So uh Wednesday was a pretty good day. just reverting to the pre-news price. Um, again, it's priced in this move is unfair. So, just looking for a reversion on open. Could also definitely get in reversions here. Like, it's

98:32

Speaker A

it's fine. Just make sure you're break even when market opens. Um, consolidation at the previous price. Just confirming that it would be fair. Slight reversion here, slight reversion here, great reversion here. Now, Thursday was uh another decent day. Lots of reversions on Thursday. Here's

98:48

Speaker A

the open. Continuation trade loss. It is what it is. Uh but then you get a nice break of structure back to the open here. Nice displacement reversion here. Nice displacement reversion here.

98:58

Speaker A

Um I took one two losses in here and then I took another trade here which lost. Um here another one lost and then where was it? Final ones was one two three four five that won. So ended net

99:11

Speaker A

very positive on this day. Um I usually don't go past 11 a.m. EST unless I haven't finished trading a majority of my accounts. This was a day I hadn't done a lot because it was like one, two, three losses and like you saw earlier in this trade. Today when I lost, I took another one. Um,

99:25

Speaker A

just cuz I like my accounts to either be at profit target or gone. So, I'll take multiple trades on them throughout the day. Um, so when I take one, two, three, three, or four losses in here, um, then I'm obviously going to take more trades because my accounts are down, but they're not done

99:37

Speaker A

yet. So, um, if you lose, like you need to win that back plus more. Kind of a weird mentality, right? But it's what works for me. Uh, I just like speed on prof. know, caught this entire reversion.

99:49

Speaker A

Um, I was hoping today would be a trendy day. Uh, so I could show you how I trade reversions in trend, but unfortunately it was not. So, this whole week tried to give it a a good try for the live recording. No trends and that dude's speaking now, so probably going to be done. But,

100:04

Speaker A

hope you enjoyed the video. Um, definitely was happy to talk with Riz about my strategy, talk with you guys about the strategy. So, show us some live. Um, most important thing you should take away from this and a of my content is that focus more on the proferm rules, uh, like like

100:17

Speaker A

you probably saw with my profit targets being like static versus what the market is showing.

100:22

Speaker A

It'd be a little bit more discretionary if it's based on what the market's showing, targeting the exact area stop-loss a specific place. A lot more static for the prop firm specific environment. But thank you so much for watching and I'll see you in the next one. So important really, you know, off

100:35

Speaker A

the back of this entire episode is knowing your numbers. Yeah, you know, regardless of whether you're using this strategy or not, that really is a a fundamental thing that every trader should have an understanding of their numbers and and therefore, you know, when people complain about

100:49

Speaker A

psychology or even uh their discipline and so on. Really having that understanding of numbers, it doesn't fix things straight away, but it definitely helps to to really trust your system.

100:59

Speaker A

And in this particular case, you have to really understand your numbers and trust your numbers to follow a mechanical system in the first place, but then also to understand, you know, the model that you're trading these prop firms with. Um, and to be able to then, you know, bankroll accordingly.

101:14

Speaker A

Yep. And know what that looks like, you know, the reality of that process. Yeah, JJ, it's been absolute pleasure. You know, I'm sure it's very eye opening for the people at home as well.

101:23

Speaker A

probably the first time that they're getting a real deep insight into the, you know, full process and the data behind it all. And I thank you for breaking it all down and then being so transparent as well in terms of your journey as well. And uh well, everyone at home, drop a comment of your

101:36

Speaker A

biggest takeaway from this episode. you know, something very different. But as we said at the very beginning, a proper money-making machine, uh, if done correctly, and that's something we want to really highlight at the end of this is to, you know, really don't just look at the

101:50

Speaker A

numbers that we talked about in terms of payouts or payout amounts or, you know, in the time that it's been done. More so understand exactly what JJ went through, which is the numbers of, you know, your expected value. uh understanding the numbers in terms of you know the exact ones we just broke

102:05

Speaker A

down right now in terms of your you know win rate and uh pass rate and so on. Those are the things that you have to do the work on you know links for JJ will be in the description below

102:16

Speaker A

so make sure you check those out as well. Other episodes are on screen right now. Make sure you hit like. Make sure you subscribe and until next time everyone this has been Cha Fanatics. Take a

Topics: quantitative trading prop firm trading price action strategy risk management fair pricing theory 1-minute trading trading strategy mechanical trading JJ Simon funded accounts

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