**PTG Cycle Day 2 Mid Day Review 4 2 20 — Transcript & Summary | SozAI**
Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/ptg-cycle-day-2-mid-day-review/

Review of an April 2, 2020 cycle day two trading session in ES futures, covering probing of the cycle day one low, a bullish shift, and a rally toward range projections.

## Key Takeaways

- Cycle day one establishes a cycle low; cycle day two tests whether sellers remain below it.
- Holding above the cycle day one low and clearing key pivot levels signaled a bullish shift.
- The average cycle day two range (~85 points) provided a projected initial target that the market reached.
- Pullbacks within a new upward move are the preferred entry opportunities, while targets signal caution against new buying.

## What the video covers

- The presenter reviews a cycle day two (Thursday, April 2, 2020) morning trading session, following a cycle day one low at 2434.25.
- Cycle day one's job is to probe for and establish a new cycle low from which the next rally begins.
- Price rallied during Globex to about 50% of a 25.19 target, which on a normal cycle day two would involve backing and filling and a test of the cycle day one low.
- After a sharp pre-cash-session sell-off that briefly violated the cycle day one low, price recovered above it and held, the scenario the briefing had anticipated.
- The 2475-2480 pivot zone acted as the key bullish marker; clearing it led to acceleration, aided by positive crude oil comments.
- The average cycle day two range projection of about 85 handles, measured from the cycle day one low, served as the initial price target and coincided with the Globex overnight high.
- The presenter explains how to trade the structure: buying pullbacks (discounts) within a developing up move, using VWAP and pivot levels as confirmation.
- Once target zones are reached, the strategy shifts from buying to avoiding new longs, expecting consolidation or balancing action.
- The presenter emphasizes that knowing the theory is insufficient; the goal is translating the cycle structure into actionable trade decisions.
- The presentation includes standard regulatory disclaimers that past performance is not indicative of future results and that the content is for educational purposes only.

## Chapters

1. 00:00 Introduction and disclaimers
2. 02:01 Cycle day one recap and cycle day two setup
3. 04:22 Reviewing the 60-minute and 5-minute charts
4. 07:57 Morning session breakout and crude oil catalyst
5. 11:37 Range projections and price targets
6. 18:18 How to trade the pullback and discount setups
7. 26:00 Target zones and mid-day consolidation

Answers

## Questions about this video

What was the cycle day one low referenced in this session?

The cycle day one low was 2434.25, established during the prior day's decline. The market's behavior around this level, probing below it and then recovering above it, defined the cycle day two setup.

What was the initial price target for cycle day two?

The initial target was the average cycle day two range of about 85 handles, projected from the cycle day one low. The presenter noted it also corresponded to the Globex overnight high, and price reached those objectives during the morning session.

How does the presenter suggest trading this pattern?

The presenter suggests buying pullbacks, called discounts, within a developing upward move, as long as price holds above the cycle day one low and key pivot levels. Once target zones are reached, the approach shifts to avoiding new buys and watching for consolidation.

## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:01

Speaker A

all right good afternoon everyone today I thought I'd take an opportunity to review cycle day two today is Thursday April 2nd 2020 we had a very good cycle day two a morning action so we want to make sure we review that and see how it

00:26

Speaker A

unfolded and how our plan was an expectation of a cycle day two so but before we do I again industry regulations just requires me to at least display our disclaimers and that past performance is not indicative of future

00:45

Speaker A

results and this presentation is for educational purposes only okay with that out of the way we begin each session with a daily trade strategy alright and as you can see here everybody has access to this during your trial or if you are

01:17

Speaker A

a subscriber so how I write this out is we kind of give you a brief view of the prior session what happened there and as it leads into the current session so as you can see here yesterday Wednesday was

01:35

Speaker A

a cycle day one the price declined which normally is expected to occur did materialize and it went beyond the average decline and slightly beyond the statistical decline as well so that established a cycle day one low and again the job of a cycle day one is to

02:02

Speaker A

probe for and establish a new cycle low from which to begin the next cycle rally so the whole idea of the cycle is that it's cyclic cycles back and forth over a three-day period so coming into today we're

02:21

Speaker A

transitioning from a cycle day 1 to a cycle day 2 and as I wrote here during the Globex session price had rallied approximately 50% of the target of 2519 and that on a normal cycle day 2 would be for some level of backing and filling

02:49

Speaker A

adjusting in this case for the price decline from the day before and part of that process the important part of the process is in most cases we'll get some sort of a test of the cycle day one low

03:03

Speaker A

so the market wants to determine whether or not there are sellers below that level or other sellers complete so that's the probing aspect of the cycle of the cycle day 2 all right so let's go to the charts here

03:29

Speaker A

and we'll show you as it unfolded today so keeping a few things in mind yesterday here as the cycle day 1 so we're looking at the left side of the chart and what I'm gonna do here is actually what I want to present to you

03:46

Speaker A

is taking a look at the big picture having an understanding of what we're looking for for the particular cycle day and then not just enough to see what the big picture is anticipated to be but then take that understanding see what

04:06

Speaker A

actually is unfolding in real time and then how do we trade it because that ultimately we want to drill down to how do we trade this what do we look for in order to trade this to stay in alignment

04:20

Speaker A

with what the cycle day is unfolding as and what opportunities can we uncover so it's really important it's not just enough to know the theory of it and the structure of it but ultimately how to trade it so that's what we'll try to

04:36

Speaker A

present here because it turned out to be a very good cycle day to morning session so far all right so yesterday cycle day one again the job was to probe for a low and you can see here on the Left chart we

04:52

Speaker A

got a low at twenty four thirty four quarter as I mentioned in the daily trade strategy the market rallied up a little bit during the overnight and then as we entered just prior to the cash session prices sold off aggressively testing and

05:16

Speaker A

actually exceeding or violating actually or exceeding the cycle day one low so at this point we discussed in our briefing we had a couple different scenarios that may play out naturally one would be a continuation of the decline failure to

05:41

Speaker A

recover above it and then continue on down to lower violation levels and lower projected levels the alternate scenario which ended up playing out was to recover back above the cycle day one low retrace some bit and then continue on to

06:08

Speaker A

rally so that was the beginning of the briefing so clearly as you can see here we ended up getting the second scenario which was the hold recover back above and hold alright so let's go over to to the 5-minute chart here and we'll in

06:31

Speaker A

which is an R th session chart regular trading hours versus the 60 minute which we have a 24-hour session and we still have the same levels here so we have the by de l'eau or cycle day one low here all right at 34 quarter now

06:49

Speaker A

in this case we don't we don't we're not seeing the overshoot that we see in the 60 minute simply because it's an R th but if you can visualize that there was that overshoot so if we look at the

07:02

Speaker A

second scenario that play that ultimately played out was alright so we so let's just call it we had the overshoot down here and then we look for we're looking for a recovery back above the cycle day one low

07:16

Speaker A

so as the rth session began though it was a little volatile naturally the opening is our we got our move up to the prior V found some resistance there and then price pulled back alright that was all during the rth session so that's

07:42

Speaker A

the scenario we're looking for we're looking for price to come back retest the cycle day one low doesn't have to come back and touch it the markets going to determine what it wants to do regardless of what we think it should be

08:00

Speaker A

doing but keep in mind the concept is to stay above the cycle day one low if the market determines that that is that what they want to do and there's no selling on the probes lower so it probed lower

08:20

Speaker A

here on the pullback if there's no additional selling that took place then the market begins to auction back higher okay and during the morning session what we were talking about early on is determining whether or not the price

08:41

Speaker A

action was developing in a more bullish fashion or in a more Barris fashion and one of the markers that we use will be the opening the opening mid of the session and the V whap at the time now the V whap wasn't

09:02

Speaker A

as useful at that time as the mid but as long as we said if price stays above the mid it's bullish if it can get above the 2475 2480 zone here so this upper pivot zone from yesterday is rth session it

09:27

Speaker A

would be additionally bullish to the extent that price would then target the 25 1950s so if you take over here to the left back over to the left 60-minute chart you can see this white line 25 1936 or round it to 50 and that

09:59

Speaker A

is the average range on a cycle day - as measured from the cycle day one low I'll show you that on the spreadsheet in a moment so this target is the range projection measured from the cycle day one low on a cycle day - it also

10:32

Speaker A

happened to correspond to the Globex overnight high alright so as you can clearly see once price cleared the 5 minute 24 75 80 zone that which we discussed live in our room this morning prices began to accelerate now courtesy

10:57

Speaker A

of by the way of some positive comments related to crude oil and that of course helped the ESPY catch a strong bid as well regardless of the catalyst the structure remained intact of what we were looking for so when we came in

11:16

Speaker A

anticipation we were looking for some backing and filling we didn't really have a whole lot of time to back and fill here today the nature of the market's action just didn't allow it and we had that bullish commentary and crude

11:33

Speaker A

and you know again market sparked the bid but notice right the potential where the market ended up going ended up market ended up going up to those 25 20 levels which again is the average range projection on a cycle day - so as we

11:56

Speaker A

came in this morning we had a probe below the question was acceptance or rejection we don't know what the answer was to that unless the market had to unfold and show us so the market showed us that it was accepting or actually was

12:15

Speaker A

rejecting the the probe below it was accepting price above the cycle day one low and then ultimately caught a firm bid and then the potential led up to the range and that's at the 25 20 s so as

12:37

Speaker A

we're speaking right now live prices have pulled back - V WAP and I mentioned just a short time ago that as long as price holds above view up and also by the way it's retesting the breakout point is it not 2480 pivot so let's come

12:57

Speaker A

back and retested the breakout point and now prices are being bid up once again as we speak in during the mid day here the mid noon noon period so we have a bid and the prices may continue to move

13:15

Speaker A

higher at this stage all right but the initial objective coming off the cycle day one low to the 25 20s has been fulfilled now how do I get that how do I get that 25 20 where does that come from so if we take

13:37

Speaker A

a look here at the spreadsheet and let me clear the drawings okay so if we take a look at the spreadsheet here if you look at this area here on the left hand side right you'll see 25 1936

14:09

Speaker A

and you'll see there it's a possible high of a cycle day - okay based upon we go all the way over here based upon the average rally and what's that average rally distance so if we come over here

14:31

Speaker A

to the right the average rally of 85 11 so how do we get that target where does that come from so we know what the average range or rally target ranges 85 handles how do we how do we get that 25 19 so we got to

14:57

Speaker A

go down here up here to the left and say where it says the current es low from the previous so R up here you can see 24:34 quarter plus that's the low plus 81 excuse me 85 11 gives us a result of 25

15:25

Speaker A

1936 so if price holds above the cycle day one low 24 34 quarter the projection rally based upon the average range that occurs on a cycle day - which is 85 handles brings price the initial price target well the initial objective on a

15:53

Speaker A

cycle day - - and this value here 25 1950 you can round it to 25 29 dove use round numbers but fulfilled that particular target all right so that's how you get this value here how do you use the spreadsheet it's

16:17

Speaker A

not enough just to say okay there's your possible high but how do I get it where does that come from so I have greater confidence in understanding how these numbers are generated again these are herbs actual observations that have

16:31

Speaker A

occurred on cycle day two over the past 20 cycles okay down here on the bottom left we're looking at what's called the recap MA sheet the recap MA is 23 day cycles of approximately 60 trading days and that encompasses all the most recent

17:03

Speaker A

action so 85 handles is the average rally range measured from the cycle day one low the average range observed overall over the past 20 cycles on a cycle day two has been up here in this red excuse me a

17:30

Speaker A

hundred and five spots 71 so roughly 106 handles total range that's the overall range measurement of the day what we're discussing here is the possible high based upon the average rally and that's a different calculation than the average range based on the

17:57

Speaker A

cycle day two which is 85 handles now again prices now could certainly go much higher but right now as of this recording mid day during the lunch period the morning session has fulfilled those objectives now prices would need to

18:20

Speaker A

go above the car and high and extend you know beyond the current session high and then reach some further upside objectives so if you take a look here on the rth session on the right the next upside objective here would be if it

18:46

Speaker A

clears the current high the next objective would be here twenty five thirty four fifty call it which is the penetration of the prior sessions high daily high right so it would move up that would be the next projection and

19:08

Speaker A

again if this if this high up as well gets taken out alright so right now as we we're currently prices are we're looking for and we've already seen support come in on a retest of prior resistance converting to new support we

19:30

Speaker A

have an upward sloping view op now we get a pretty high you know volume node area here as well there's a point of control so this area is being traffic trafficked quite heavily at the moment volume has dropped off significantly as

19:52

Speaker A

prices are auctioned up into this high so at the moment there's not a lot of support beyond the current high when I say support I'm referring to new buyers eager buyers sustain the buyers willing to pay the upper prices and looking for

20:16

Speaker A

prices to go further so the probing of the upside again here is to probe to see where Salizar if the market if there are no real sellers again the volume has dropped off a bit but if there are no

20:30

Speaker A

developing sellers the buyer is the bid we'll still continue to be there but you can see a little volume notch right here so they're encountering a little bit of responsive sellers at the moment about 14 15 s so we'll have to see how

20:47

Speaker A

actively we'll have to see how the market handles that but for for right now the initial objective on a cycle day 2 has been fulfilled ok up to the 25 19 20 level now you're taking the you're taking the the question is which means

21:14

Speaker A

you don't need to add up 85 to 25 19 so you know you the measurement is from the cycle day one low alright so 20 just pull out your calculator 24 34 quarter all right plus 85 gives you what 25 19 all right so

21:40

Speaker A

right so that's all that's that's it that's the average rally okay at that point that's the calculation that's the core calculation all right so that has been fulfilled at this point no need to add beyond that so coming in this

21:59

Speaker A

morning in in preparation in preparation for today the question is if prices hold the cycle day one low and begin to and we and we get some bullish shifts so let me just show you let me continue on here

22:18

Speaker A

okay how we how we can trade this what do we look for in the ship so we understand the low the pullback holds above that cycle day one low okay that's great terrific but how the heck do I

22:35

Speaker A

trade it what do we look for so here's I'm gonna switch over to the execution chart now and I've highlighted in red right so this is the cycle day one low and this is the excess low all right just call it

23:03

Speaker A

X low for excess that's the excess oh so that's the probe below and then the recovery back above okay so now one of the questions well how do we identify if the lows in place and what do we look

23:19

Speaker A

for okay so we're looking for a shift from bearish condition to bullish condition on the lower execution charts so in this case we're using a 750 tick and you can see here the ATR lines were initially bearish here and then they

23:40

Speaker A

shifted to bullish so that shift is what we refer to as a structure shift price structure shift alright and we have a little bit of a color background you know shift as well to help designate you know that bullish change so at this

23:59

Speaker A

point and again this is right on the opening here alright prices shifted to to a more bullish posture okay so now as so it along could have been taken here but let's just move along here from of it prices did pull back

24:22

Speaker A

though okay and again this is part and parcel what we're actually looking for we talked about looking for that pullback in price so pricing in fact pulled back we were looking at that on the 5-minute chart there so if you kind

24:44

Speaker A

of take a look consider this on a 5-minute chart so we had the initial move up off the low and then we got a pullback in price which you know found some level of support around the 45s so that's your first pullback following

25:00

Speaker A

the recovery back above the cycle day one low so at this point we could be beginning to plan on looking for a long and so we get a new shift here so again we had again this is a sensitive chart

25:20

Speaker A

the 750 is a relatively sensitive chart so you'll see that the ATR is shifted back to a bearish condition here but again we're looking for a pullback so that's natural for the ATR s to shift that way what we're looking for is we're

25:38

Speaker A

looking for on the pullback at some level to find renewed buyers so as prices pull back and tested you know these 45s it Foundry new buyers what we're now looking for is once this pullback concludes we're looking for the

26:02

Speaker A

new shift in the 80 ARS again this becomes a more significant shift now why because the first pullback off the recovery low has concluded so this bullish shift again back to the greenish background all right which gives us some visualization ATR shifts

26:27

Speaker A

which our structure price structure shifts from as we view them and then now we ended up getting discounts and again a discount is a pullback within the context of the new developing up move standard set up for us so a discount

26:45

Speaker A

becomes our initial long trigger or a long setup all right to consider the trade so again all the bigger price structure action and what we were looking for to unfold occurred and then again drilling down into the execution

27:06

Speaker A

charts well how do i how do I take the understanding of of recovery back above the cycle day one low and how do we use that to take a trade so once we have all that structure anticipated in mine and as its unfolding

27:20

Speaker A

now we're looking for that new development back to the long side back to the bullish side as you can see now here prices continued to you know not only shift alright but again each pullback provided some area within the

27:39

Speaker A

context of the price structure so you can see where those arrows are those will pull backs within the developing up moves so these become the zones to initiate Long's from because price structure now has shifted and by the way

27:59

Speaker A

this was before the announcement positive news regarding crude oil so price had already shifted to a bullish posture before significant news and then as we were speaking of earlier we were looking for the 24 ATS 2475 zone right

28:26

Speaker A

to be the inflection point so as prices auctioned up into that got a little reaction right so a little sell reaction there a little sell reaction there to be expected but the sell reaction didn't result in a reversal it

28:42

Speaker A

just resulted in a pullback in both cases but within the context of a developing up move okay that's how we want to look to trade these things we want to we want to take the understanding of how a cycle day unfolds

29:00

Speaker A

what's the typical expectation or the normal expectation of a cycle particular cycle day once we start understanding the nature of how cycles work how these particular cycles work and how we can use the the range projections we have a

29:19

Speaker A

lot of information at our fingertips and again if we're not predicting that the market is going to move to those levels what we're saying is if the market does move and shows us in its in its underlying action that that's

29:34

Speaker A

what it wants to do then what's the potential what's the range potential how much gasoline do you have in your car and how far can you go on a gallon of gasoline you know on a tank of gasoline

29:47

Speaker A

all right so you you have a specific range that your car can can go before having to fill up so in a sense what's the average range what's the average rally that has occurred on a cycle day to when the cycle day one low has held

30:06

Speaker A

and then there is a bullish shift so this was a pretty good day of how things can unfold under those type conditions and then again trying to demonstrate here what we look for with our you know other ptg indicators and strategies and

30:29

Speaker A

setups that now once we have that in place the structure well how do i trigger into it is that just a matter of saying okay it held that cycle day one low and I'm just going to take a flier

30:42

Speaker A

and buy them not necessarily although some people will do that but rather I see that it's happened there's evidence of that shifting to a more bullish condition now I can manage risk much easier much better much more confidently

30:59

Speaker A

by waiting for the price on the lower time periods execution periods even for entering with a more acceptable risk parameter and then just effectively staying in alignment with that new direction of the direction on the on the bullish shift in this case with the

31:21

Speaker A

anticipation that well how far could it go 25 19 s 25 20 s is the potential why because that's been the historical average rally when these conditions have unfolded will it happen today individually we have no idea but now we become risk

31:43

Speaker A

managers we enter our trades on these pull backs and then we manage our trade so how we would do that we would scale out of some get ourselves to a risk free position as we like to get and then let

31:57

Speaker A

the market unfold right as again at that point it becomes kind of a wash rinse repeat you know scenario as prices reached you know the the target zones we no longer want to be interested in buying those we

32:14

Speaker A

want to we want to buy them early in the shifts you want to identify those shifts and get on to those opportunities as we like to call them as early as possible ok that is our review for the cycle day

32:35

Speaker A

to today really unfolded nicely now again going beyond this at this point you know we don't really need to write again like the core concept of the cycle day two is to establish a cycle day one rather it be to establish the low retest

32:58

Speaker A

that on a cycle day two which did occur and that's a normal process market finds surety or security of that low and then now the market can rally to the next objective so from NIT and that has all occurred

33:20

Speaker A

this morning from here was still on a cycle day two so the idea of still this backing and filling consolidation is still very much in play all right as you can see here on the profiles on the Left

33:36

Speaker A

we do have some overlapping value zones so I'm still anticipating into the afternoon session cycle day to normal price action would mean some potential you know backing and filling may be pulling back down into the mid area zone alright and just kind

33:58

Speaker A

of consolidating again we still have you know the fairly aggressive move from yesterday prices have basically bounced back up and now we could just find once again some sort of a balancing action which would be normal again for cycle

34:17

Speaker A

day two alright so that is going to conclude the review session officially and I can take some questions off offline but I wanted to make sure that's set up and we'll have this recorded and we'll have it rendered and sent out to

34:38

Speaker A

to everybody so they can review it alright the market gives us some terrific examples once we know the template we can apply the template in real conditions and with greater confidence and understanding how the market may unfold again we're not we

35:00

Speaker A

don't use it as prediction predictive capabilities but in many cases the markets know what the ranges are and one of the basic tenants that I've learned years ago is that it the market wants to fulfill the range or satisfy the range

35:20

Speaker A

and in this case we're talking about the three day cycle range and as you've been observing over the past several days these these range targets get fulfilled you know quite readily so we'll just continue on review when when necessary

35:38

Speaker A

so we can get a greater understanding of the cycle how it actually plays out not just theoretically on paper but in fact practically you know in real life terms all right so we'll conclude here and we'll have it rendered shortly

Topics: ES futures E-mini S&P 500 cycle trading day trading market structure VWAP pivot levels range projection mid-day review Polaris Trading Group

Study this video

- [Flashcards from this video](https://sozai.app/tools/flashcard-maker/?from=transcript&id=93189)
- [Quiz on this video](https://sozai.app/tools/quiz-generator/?from=transcript&id=93189)
- [Crossword from this video](https://sozai.app/tools/crossword-maker/?from=transcript&id=93189)
- [Word search from this video](https://sozai.app/tools/word-search-maker/?from=transcript&id=93189)
- [Study guide from this video](https://sozai.app/tools/study-guide-maker/?from=transcript&id=93189)

Free, made by AI from this transcript. No signup.


---
This is the markdown twin of https://sozai.app/transcript/ptg-cycle-day-2-mid-day-review/ — the same content, without the markup.
Published by SozAI (https://sozai.app). Reuse and quotation are allowed with attribution and a link back.
Machine-readable index: https://sozai.app/llms.txt · data API: https://sozai.app/api/