**PTG 3 Day Cycle Review 032820 — Transcript & Summary | SozAI**
Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/ptg-3-day-cycle-review-032820/

David from Polaris Trading Group reviews a textbook 3-day market cycle from March 2020, covering cycle days one through three, support/resistance tests, and average range projections.

## Key Takeaways

- Cycle day one should establish a secure low from which the market rallies.
- Key prior highs and lows act as reaction points; the acceptance-or-rejection question at these levels guides the next move.
- Average range and decline projections derived from historical data are used as target estimates.
- A failed breakout above a prior cycle high followed by a reversal back through that level can trigger a short setup with a stop above the excess high.

## What the video covers

- Presenter David Debate opens with the NFA compliance disclaimer that trading futures is risky and past performance does not predict future results.
- The review covers the week's 3-day market cycle beginning Sunday evening with a locked limit-down Globex session.
- Monday's positive Fed announcement on interest rates going to zero produced a spike that was partly given back later in the session.
- Cycle day one is defined as establishing a secure low from which the market can rally, ideally early in the session.
- Tuesday (cycle day one) was an expansion day that closed strong in its range with a wide value zone.
- Wednesday (cycle day two) showed the expected backing and filling, retesting the prior value high and finding responsive buyers.
- Cycle day three saw a retest of the same support area, then an aggressive rally to the highs and an extension beyond the prior high.
- Friday's rejection of the prior cycle day three high is framed as a key acceptance-versus-rejection test that triggered a short setup.
- The presenter uses penetration zones and average decline/range projections (the 'PTG TTT MA' indicator) to set price targets.
- The cycle concluded with a reversion back toward the mean at the close, which the presenter describes as a textbook sequence.

## Chapters

1. 00:00 Introduction and NFA compliance disclaimer
2. 01:14 Setting up the weekly cycle and Fed announcement
3. 02:18 Cycle day one and cycle day two dynamics
4. 03:21 Cycle day three rally and extension
5. 04:24 Friday follow-through and rejection of prior high
6. 05:48 Reviewing the cycle day one setups and support levels
7. 07:10 Average decline projections and support retest
8. 09:06 Range projections, short trigger, and closing summary

Answers

## Questions about this video

What is the main goal of cycle day one according to the presenter?

The presenter says the core goal of cycle day one is to establish a secure low from which the market can rally. When that low forms early in the session, it creates a core baseline for the move higher.

What does the presenter mean by acceptance versus rejection?

When price tests key prior highs or lows, the presenter asks whether the market accepts the level and holds it or rejects it by trading back through. The answer determines the next course of action, such as a continuation or a reversal trade.

How does the presenter use average decline and range projections?

The presenter uses an indicator derived from historical data to project an average decline from the cycle day three high, which is then used as a target. Penetration and range projections are similarly used to estimate how far price may travel after clearing a prior level.

## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:01

Speaker A

good day everyone David debate over players trading group hope everybody is doing well and staying safe in this trying time for everyone today is Saturday March 28th 2020 thought we would take an opportunity to review the 3-day cycle as it unfolded this past

00:27

Speaker A

week get some educational benefits out of the unfolding of the cycle as it played out before we get to that industry regulations require that I identify and highlight NFA compliance rule 2-2 9 which simply says that trading is risky trade with only money

00:55

Speaker A

you can afford to lose trading in futures and derivatives on futures is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss past performance is not indicative of future results and this presentation is for educational purposes only let's get to

01:14

Speaker A

the cycle ok so what I've done here is I've highlighted the entire week's cycle period beginning Sunday evening on the bottom left where we had a locked limit down market during the Globex session Monday opened and we got a positive Fed

01:40

Speaker A

announcement regarding interest rates going to zero later in this so we've got a pretty solid spike there and then later in the session market gave back most of the gains but held firm above the locked limit area as Tuesday Globex

02:00

Speaker A

opened prices then found a firm bid and then continued throughout the entire session of a cycle day one Monday excuse me that was Tuesday and the Sakura law was established early as in the session so keep in mind

02:18

Speaker A

the core goal of cycle day one is to establish a secure low from which to rally and when that secure low happens early in the session all right that establishes a core baseline from which to rally so as you can clearly see

02:36

Speaker A

Tuesday we had an expansion day which closed strong in its range with a wide value zone as well that continued of course into the next session Wednesday cycle day two and then some backing and filling so a typical cycle day -

03:00

Speaker A

expectation is - back and fill with a positive bullish skill and as you can as you can see here the market did in fact do that throughout course of the session it back tested the private value high found responsive buyers and then as the

03:21

Speaker A

session concluded it concluded on a strong note as well all right so again a pretty much textbook title cycle day one and two up to this point Globex session into cycle day three all right found some again some sellers and they came

03:43

Speaker A

back down and retested once again that same area that was tested the prior session on cycle day - all right as you can see that held firm once the market was satisfied that a support was in place as you can see on the cycle day

04:04

Speaker A

three right the rally continued very aggressively pushing up and closing in to the highs and again it exceeded the breakout above cycle day - which extended the rally so again one of the goals here is to continue the rally

04:24

Speaker A

right as support was found to be solid and the market proceeded as such so as we came into Friday's session you can see here that prices expects early so again we closed these stars here is the prior close so on a cycle date three prices

04:57

Speaker A

closed high in their range so there was a bit of a follow-through on a cycle day 1 up to the penetration level so what the penetration level indicates of penetration zones here indicate is that if price clears the prior cycle high

05:19

Speaker A

there's an average range projected historically and those ranges are mapped out here on our chart here 25 26 35 26:42 so you can see it pushes above the prior high and fulfilled the initial penetration objective but the bid did

05:47

Speaker A

not hold as you can clearly see and prices traded back down through the prior cycle day three high this basically formed what we referred to as a rejection so one of the key items that we look for throughout the entire cycle

06:08

Speaker A

is since the prior high in lows our key reference levels when those levels are tested we always want to ask the question is there acceptance or is there rejection and that will determine what the next course of action will be so as

06:31

Speaker A

you can see here our cycle was clearly a strong cycle and pretty much textbook throughout as price tested the cycle day one hi that was during the excuse me tackle day three high on cycle day one during the early Globex an asian session

06:52

Speaker A

the market found responsive sellers stronger now remembered now we go back to our cycle okay so we have two different cycle day ones here we have one that's coming off of a strong reaction from the Globex lows and the

07:12

Speaker A

prior session lows which found support and this price cycle day one actually there was no decline which resulted in a strong rally so that's again as I mentioned earlier cycle day one can take a couple different forms but the

07:29

Speaker A

objective though is to find a secure low okay so coming back at the end of the week where the cycle completed cycle day three on its highs there was some follow-through and that is to be expected and again the question is

07:50

Speaker A

accept or reject so clearly as we entered into our rth session we had that answer already established during the Globex so for those that are trading Globex right again following the cycle this scenario here is also a natural

08:13

Speaker A

textbook scenario so we're looking for in anticipating a decline for a cycle day one okay so we have what's called an average decline measurement that's based upon the spreadsheet and again I'm not showing the spreadsheet here but rather

08:37

Speaker A

the indicator that we use from the spreadsheets data you can see here this white line it says the ptg TTT MA which means the average decline for a cycle day one so what this means is from the cycle day 3 hi there

09:00

Speaker A

is an average decline distance that is calculated in advance historical distance and we use that as a target projection so from off the cycle day 3 hi what is the average decline that would potentially unfold if that decline

09:21

Speaker A

of course happened so that bringeth Brett brought us down to the 2526 level and we outlined that target within our daily trade strategy so the decline began during the Globex session and as the rth session unfolded extended a

09:43

Speaker A

little bit below that found support now notice where prices are finding support at ok prices of finding support at prior value highs value high of cycle day - so we found support there alright and then prices proceeded to continue to find a

10:06

Speaker A

bid alright and rally up to what we call the TTT level this is the average range projection from a low and as you can see here that was fulfilled as well during the rth session and then later in the

10:28

Speaker A

session into the closed market reverted back to this the initial support area ok so all in all this was a real good cycle about his textbook is we could probably ask for in this environment or any environment so it begin with a strong

10:50

Speaker A

cycle day 1 a backing infill cycle day 2 once again into cycle day 3 ok tested that area 1 again for surety sparked the rally which concluded cycle day three tried an extension beyond failed to find a solid

11:18

Speaker A

bid above that and then rejected reversed back down through the the prior hi now that back down through the prior hi actually is the trigger for a short with a stop above the excess hi and of course that happened early in the Globex

11:36

Speaker A

so the Globex traders had a good opportunity there but even for us in the rth session if you were just trading rth again one of the levels here again always know what the various previous levels are of support resistance so

11:53

Speaker A

again usually the value highs value lows become reactions points so we did have an opportunity around the twenty five ten twenty five fifteen area to find support I enduring for those are th traders okay plenty of opportunity throughout and then concluding pretty

12:15

Speaker A

much back at the reversion back to the mean for the close of the session alright so this was a great really good cycle day or three day cycle sequence and be sure to review the cycle date documents if need be again you can find

12:35

Speaker A

those each day in our trading room we have a link to the document and the spreadsheets if you have any questions regarding the three day cycle alright or any of the other aspects of what we do during our daily trade room please don't

12:54

Speaker A

hesitate to give me a shout alright david at polaris trading group calm and I hope this has been helpful for review we'll see you guys on Monday have a great weekend stay safe and be well we'll see you then on Monday guys thank

13:13

Speaker A

you very much for your attention appreciate it

Topics: market cycle 3-day cycle futures trading Globex value area rejection acceptance cycle day trading education Polaris Trading Group

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