**Please don’t ignore this… — Transcript & Summary | SozAI** Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/please-dont-ignore-this/ Conor Kenny analyzes Bitcoin's current market position, trading strategies, and macro factors influencing the potential start of a new bull market. ## Key Takeaways - Bitcoin breaking previous highs in a bear market is historically unusual and may signal a bull market start. - Risk management and acting on probabilities are crucial in volatile crypto markets. - Institutional buying supports Bitcoin's price floor, reducing the likelihood of deep lows. - Market boredom and retail selling are typical before major market moves. - Diversifying trades across platforms and being prepared for volatility improves long-term success. ## What the video covers - Bitcoin is at a critical point between bear and bull markets, with recent price highs sparking debate about market direction. - Conor emphasizes acting on probabilities rather than certainties in trading decisions. - He shares his cautious approach to altcoins during the bear market, focusing more on Bitcoin longs due to lower risk. - Recent Bitcoin trades have yielded significant profits, with plans to add positions if prices pull back near $60,000. - Conor promotes Coinbase as a trading platform with rewards for new users and highlights its suitability for derivatives trading. - Macro factors include a potential Federal Reserve emergency announcement and QE launch to stabilize markets. - Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, with sovereign wealth funds reallocating from gold to Bitcoin as a hedge. - The video discusses whether the Bitcoin bottom is in and the likelihood of a new bull market starting soon. - Conor advises viewers to avoid emotional reactions to market headlines and stick to their trading strategies. - He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification across multiple platforms. ## Chapters 1. 00:00 Introduction and Bitcoin Market Overview 2. 00:49 Recent Bitcoin Price Action and Market Sentiment 3. 01:53 Trading Strategy and Altcoin Positions 4. 02:49 Probability-Based Market Analysis 5. 03:48 Trade Updates and Future Plans 6. 04:47 Coinbase Partnership and Trading Benefits 7. 05:49 Macro Environment and Federal Reserve Impact 8. 07:06 Institutional Interest and Market Bottom Discussion 9. 08:13 Market Behavior, Strategy Advice, and Closing Remarks Answers ## Questions about this video Is the Bitcoin bull market starting according to Conor Kenny? Conor suggests that Bitcoin breaking previous highs in a bear market increases the probability of an early bull market start, but he emphasizes acting on probabilities rather than certainties. What is Conor Kenny's approach to altcoins during the bear market? He has been cautious with altcoins, only buying select ones like Solana and SoFi at much lower prices, preferring to focus on Bitcoin long positions due to lower risk and a bullish long-term outlook. How does Conor Kenny view institutional involvement in Bitcoin? He highlights that major institutions and sovereign wealth funds are holding or increasing their Bitcoin positions as a hedge against currency debasement, which supports the idea that the Bitcoin bottom may be in. ## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown 00:00 Speaker A You might not realize it, but what you do right now is probably the most important decision that you'll make in this bear market going into the bull market. Because right now, we see Bitcoin at a very interesting point. We're going 00:16 Speaker A to be discussing exactly where Bitcoin is, the macro environments that are affecting it, what I'm doing with my trades, and most importantly, where I think we are going next because it may surprise a lot of you guys. Just before 00:29 Speaker A we jump into the video, please remember nothing in this video is financial advice. I am not a financial adviser. 00:33 Speaker A Crypto is extremely risky and no results are guaranteed. There are some affiliate links in the description and I may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. 00:42 Speaker A So, first of all, let's jump into Bitcoin's price action and figure out where we sit in the market. So, we're at 83,200. 00:49 Speaker A There really hasn't been that much of a move over the last few days. We did recently hit a high of 87,200. 00:57 Speaker A Everyone came out on YouTube, on Twitter, and said, "The bull market is here. We're up only. Haha, you bears, you suck." And remember guys, we don't behave like this. We don't behave like anything is guaranteed. We don't behave 01:10 Speaker A like anything is a given. What we do is we act on probabilities. That is why after breaking the previous high, which by the way has never happened before this early in a bear market, after that happened I said, okay, well the 01:23 Speaker A probability of us starting this bull market early is now higher. Therefore, I'm going to be opening some new positions in altcoins. I'm not going all in. I'm not guaranteeing the gains, but I am going to open positions. For example, I opened a 01:38 Speaker A position recently on ENA that now sits at $12,500 of profit with just $3,000 of margin. But earlier when we reached our high, it was at about 17 or $18,000 of profit. Now, the idea for me is simple. 01:53 Speaker A As we get more and more likelihood of moving into a bull market, I get more and more risk on. As you know, throughout the bear market, I've barely touched altcoins. We did buy Solana and SoFi at almost 50% cheaper prices than 02:09 Speaker A it sits today, but those were the only altcoins we bought in the bear market. 02:13 Speaker A People kept telling me, Connor, why are you not accumulating altcoins in the bear market? And for me, it's just simply too risky. In that moment of high risk, I would rather open Bitcoin long positions. And the thesis around that is 02:25 Speaker A simple. I wholeheartedly believe that Bitcoin will be higher in two years. And therefore, I'm willing to hold these long positions for much longer than I'd be willing to hold altcoin positions. 02:36 Speaker A And therefore, because I have this bullish outlook, I don't really care about the short-term volatility. But again, to bring it back to the idea of looking at the probabilities. We don't sit here and say things will happen. 02:49 Speaker A Bitcoin will hit X price. Bitcoin will pull back to X price. No, we look at the probability and we look at the history. 02:57 Speaker A So right now Bitcoin did break the previous high right here. Right? This is in a bear market downturn. Breaking the previous high in a bear market and not becoming a bull market has not happened. 03:10 Speaker A However, we have to understand what has really happened to understand where we sit in the market right now. So just to update you quickly on the trades, guys, we do have my one Bitcoin trade here $64,000 in profit and my other one here 03:23 Speaker A $97,000 in profit. These have pulled back a little bit, of course, since our highs. And my plan is simple with these trades. I'm waiting. I'm just sitting on my hands. I'm doing what most people in these markets will not do. And remember, 03:36 Speaker A the thesis in my trading strategy is all about doing what most people will not do. So on the way up, I took profits. I didn't feel FOMO because I took profits too early. I just took profits at the 03:48 Speaker A resistance points. And now I wait. If we head back down near my entries of just below 60,000, then I'll just simply start adding more into either these positions or new positions, right? And hopefully the ideal situation is we do 04:02 Speaker A in fact get a pullback in the middle of October that no one is now expecting, but the four-year cycle tells us will happen, and then I can get an even bigger Bitcoin trade going into the bull market. So, that's what I'm seeing here 04:14 Speaker A with these trading strategies. And if you guys do want to trade, remember we are partnered here with Coinbase. 04:21 Speaker A Now, this is where I opened one of my newer Bitcoin trades. We entered at 67,000 and there's now $400 worth of profit with just $400 worth of margin. 04:31 Speaker A So, I basically doubled my money here on Coinbase. And if you guys sign up using my link below this video, you can get up to 275 USDC in rewards. Now, literally just completing your ID verification will get you 25 USDC. Depositing 2,500 04:47 Speaker A will get you 25 USDC and opening your first trade 25 USDC all the way up to 275 USDC in rewards, which I think is actually a phenomenal opportunity for anyone who is trading in these markets. 05:01 Speaker A And of course on Coinbase you can trade the spot market, you can trade derivatives. And for me personally, why it's such a great thing to bring Coinbase to you guys is, of course, I bought my first Bitcoin on Coinbase, 05:12 Speaker A which I'm sure a lot of people did, and now you can finally trade derivatives and I can put my strategy to work on Coinbase. So, if you want to support the channel and you want a new, potentially new exchange, one of the longest 05:24 Speaker A standing exchanges out there, but a new exchange to add to your repertoire, Coinbase will be linked below this video. You can do all of your trading directly here just as you would on any futures exchange we've spoken about 05:34 Speaker A before. But let's take a look again at what is happening. Right? So CZ just said soon with a little bit of green. So he's expecting a bull market to be kicking off. We've got some breaking news with the Fed's president expected to make an 05:49 Speaker A emergency announcement today at 3 p.m., just before the US market closes. He reports that all reports say that he could officially launch QE to address the bond market crisis and help avoid a major market crash. All eyes are on the 06:03 Speaker A Fed. Of course, QE would be pretty bullish for our risk-on assets, but nothing guaranteed here. But what we do see is sovereign wealth funds are reportedly selling their gold to buy Bitcoin. Bitwise's head of research, Ryan Rasmussen, says major institutions 06:21 Speaker A increasingly hold Bitcoin alongside gold as a hedge against currency debasement. The firm's first institutional survey found none of the 15 major institutions it interviewed sold their crypto as Bitcoin fell from 125 to 60. Several bought more. Now, 06:37 Speaker A this could indicate one of the reasons why Bitcoin never went to the lows that a lot of people were expecting, even argue was expecting now, because the big players are not selling. They're simply just seeing it as a hedge and a 06:49 Speaker A long-term investment. One sovereign wealth fund told Bitwise it was funding its crypto allocation by selling foreign exchange and gold reserves. Rasmussen says he believes $60,000 or 58k was the bottom. Now what I want to do is explore an idea here that the bottom is either 07:06 Speaker A in or not. That's because that's what we want to know. Is the bottom for Bitcoin in? Are we about to start the new bull market? Because I have to say right now things are fairly boring, right? The market is getting very bored. And like I 07:19 Speaker A said at the start of this video, so important what you do now because let's take a look at a cross-section of the market behavior that the behavioral patterns are happening right now. It's boring. The local tops in. I'm 07:32 Speaker A selling my altcoins. I'm selling my crypto. That's what a lot of things are saying now. But we're sitting just literally inches, a couple of few thousand off Bitcoin's new local high, right? And this is just typical retail. What's getting headlines? I sold all my 07:48 Speaker A Bitcoin. I sold my crypto. I'm selling my altcoins. Blah, blah, blah. I know a lot of you guys don't feel this way, but even for the people who are not feeling this way, we've got to s 08:00 Speaker A to what's happened in the past. So, Bitcoin from the local high is down only 4%. Now, in my most recent videos where I've been talking about my what I'm expecting technically, I do think at least a 20% correction is is going to 08:13 Speaker A happen, right? I actually think it will happen. Right now, the 200 day MA sits 18% below us and the recent low uh or or what people are calling the low sits just 33% below us. So, please do remember those numbers and remember that 08:27 Speaker A recently we broke the the uh local high right on the way down the downtrend of the bare market. Now, from the high to that low, it's 267 days. Right now, where we sit is uh 360 days. We are quite literally slap bang 08:49 Speaker A right now on where normally the bottom happens. But remember, hopefully my voice is still here. 08:58 Speaker A Hopefully you heard that. But if you didn't, what we were discussing on the channel is that I expect there to be, you know, a discrepancy. It's not going to be an exact science if the four-year cycle happens. So that's why I still 09:11 Speaker A have reserves in cash. I still have not deployed all of my money because I still believe we're going to have a moment here where the market gets scared once again. But let's take a look. All right, so almost exactly a year from the high 09:24 Speaker A to the low. Look at this. 376 or 364 depending on which one of these you say is the low. But that's about 2 weeks away the low from the last bare market in time right from where we sit 09:38 Speaker A right now. From this high to this low was 362. Literally 2 days. So between 2 days and 2 weeks is where Bitcoin historically bottoms. But let's take a look at also the price action. Let's zoom all the way back to 2017. My first 09:56 Speaker A bull into bear where I had no idea what on earth was going on. You can see Bitcoin did not break previous highs in the bare market, right? Until all the way in 2019, right? It never broke the previous high. Well, I guess you could 10:14 Speaker A say that we did right around here. Uh what's this one? Yeah, May 2019. And then this local high. Some people refer to this as a bull market, DeFi summer. 10:25 Speaker A This is what we have to look forward to because again guys, if you're new, this is your first bare market, there's always a massive rally that happens in a bare market, right? That could be what we're in right now. I do want to let you 10:34 Speaker A guys know that and be clear. But we didn't break the downtrend, right, until 2019. So, what was it? Uh May 2019. So, that would be the same as Mayish 2027. 10:48 Speaker A We're still pretty far away from that. However, we bottomed December 2018, which is just a, you know, a few months away from where we sit right now, guys. 11:00 Speaker A Um, but in actual time frame, literally two to three days, 4 days away from where we sit right now. But this was a black swan event, right? Again, that was a black swan event. So without the black swan event happening, the low actually 11:16 Speaker A came in 239 days, 268 daysish, right? That's where the low came in. So without a black swan event, it's very normal that actually the low could come in and maybe it's manufactured, right? But let's take a look here. You can see here Bitcoin 11:33 Speaker A pushed up. It the 200 day MA was rejected, but it didn't break the previous high. It didn't break the previous high from here. It didn't break it all the way until the low was made from a black swan event FTX. And then 11:49 Speaker A right here, right around January 23 was when we broke. But the important thing to understand is even if this is exactly what's happening, right? People say the bull market is on. This is the start. We still had a correction that went below 12:05 Speaker A the previous break, right? Below the previous high. So knowing all of that, right, it's completely normal where we sit right now. And you might be a little bit confused as to why I've just yapped on about that. But my point is simple. 12:18 Speaker A We are sitting above the previous hype. Sentiment is actually getting pretty bad pretty quickly, which is actually not surprising. This is normally when we have euphoric moves, people get, you know, they forget that happened about, you know, the the market's memory is 12:32 Speaker A incredible at just forgetting. But we sit above our previous high, right? But it's completely normal for us to sit below it, right? To retest below it, right? Here we actually lost it by uh about 8%. So 8% lower is normal. So even 12:52 Speaker A where we sit right now is above it. And from where we sit right now, an 8% correction would take us right into this uh support zone right right in there, which is about 76,000. So normal retest at the 200 day MA or about 76,000 would 13:08 Speaker A still be very bullish. Very very bullish guys. Very very bullish. All right. So what I want from you is to not get deterred from your strategy in uh crypto because of the headlines because of the way people are behaving right now. So 13:23 Speaker A I've opened new trades. I'm in these trades. I'm also in my Bitcoin trades. And if we get this pullback, happy days. 13:30 Speaker A I'm going to be opening more trades, guys. more trades because I think that we got two we got two options here. 13:36 Speaker A Bitcoin makes one more low and yeah, some of my trades will get liquidated, some of them will get stopped out. It doesn't matter, right? Right now is about positioning. So, the overall arching thesis is accumulate in this moment to ride the bull market. All 13:51 Speaker A right? And that is such a simple strategy, but when it's so simple, it's not easy because if it was easy, anyone would do it. So, I have to be able to sustain volatility. So, I'm yapping on about this again, guys, because if you 14:04 Speaker A open a trade today, you need to expect it to maybe be liquidated, maybe go into your stop-loss, maybe go into a loss, depending on how you structure these strategies. But you need to be able to get through that because again, we 14:17 Speaker A either have a new low quickly coming in, which will be devastating for the emotional side of the market, or the low is actually in, and then we can ride these trades into the bull market, right? And that's where the real money 14:28 Speaker A is made. and you position yourself now slowly accumulating, right? We're never going to get the exact bottom. We're slowly accumulating our positions. Then in the bull market is where we make the real money. And that's why I wanted to 14:39 Speaker A make this video to explain that. Don't get shaken out now because if you're in, you should have a thesis. Whatever whatever you're in, right? I'm assuming you have a thesis. And surely you believe that we're about to go into a 14:52 Speaker A bull market. But don't let a don't let a a correction throw you out of that is my opinion. Right. Of course, you have to do what you think is best, but I'm opening multiple trades on multiple platforms, guys. I have about five or 15:05 Speaker A six trades open on, you know, five different platforms because I think that's the very best way to spread out and diversify my risk. So, if you want to trade on Coinbase, guys, obviously it's one of the longest standing, if not 15:17 Speaker A the longest standing exchange in the world. Uh you can get up to 275 USDC in rewards, guys. With 25 USDC uh just from completing your ID verification. Open your first trade, you get 25 USDC all the way up to 275. And as I said, you 15:34 Speaker A can trade on the spot market, you can trade on the derivatives market. You can trade however you want on this platform. 15:39 Speaker A You can see directly on the charts. For example, my liquidation price for this trade sits at 69,000, which I'm very happy with. If we come down there, I can add to this position. and I can do it all on Coinbase where of course you can 15:52 Speaker A directly buy your crypto uh with your cards or your bank, whatever you want because it has all of those regulations that you need for that. So with that said guys, the links are below this video. Thank you for stopping by and 16:02 Speaker A I'll see you in the next one. Peace. Topics: Bitcoin crypto trading bear market bull market altcoins Conor Kenny Coinbase Federal Reserve quantitative easing institutional investment Study this video - [Flashcards from this video](https://sozai.app/tools/ai-flashcard-generator/?from=transcript&id=71424) - [Quiz on this video](https://sozai.app/tools/quiz-generator/?from=transcript&id=71424) Free, made by AI from this transcript. No signup. --- This is the markdown twin of https://sozai.app/transcript/please-dont-ignore-this/ — the same content, without the markup. Published by SozAI (https://sozai.app). Reuse and quotation are allowed with attribution and a link back. Machine-readable index: https://sozai.app/llms.txt · data API: https://sozai.app/api/