**Is Crypto’s Industry Purge the Final Sign of the Bear Market? — Transcript & Summary | SozAI**
Source: https://sozai.app/transcript/crypto-industry-purge-bear-market/

Analysis of crypto industry purge amid bear market signs, TradFi AI unwind, and market impacts including Fed policy and Bitcoin outlook.

## Key Takeaways

- Crypto industry purges and legal issues may signal nearing end of the bear market.
- Fed's cautious policy and rising treasury yields contribute to market uncertainty.
- Citadel's strategic moves in TradFi highlight vulnerabilities in illiquid assets.
- Bitcoin remains resilient but market bottom is not definitively confirmed.
- Investors should be patient and cautious, expecting possible further corrections.

## What the video covers

- The video discusses recent crypto industry shutdowns and legal troubles as potential signs of a bear market bottom approaching.
- Hosts analyze the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy stance and market reactions including treasury yields and VIX spikes.
- A significant correction in AI-related stocks and the unwinding of the Situational Awareness fund by Citadel is highlighted.
- The video covers the predatory tactics of Ken Griffin's Citadel in TradFi and its effects on market liquidity and asset prices.
- South Korean traders' heavy leveraging in semiconductor stocks is examined as a factor in the recent market volatility.
- Bitcoin's price stability around $64,000 is debated, with differing views on whether the bottom has been reached.
- The hosts discuss the potential for a violent V-shaped bottom in traditional finance and crypto markets.
- The video touches on geopolitical and regulatory risks affecting crypto, including potential wealth taxes and legality concerns.
- Long-term trends in AI compute growth and macroeconomic liquidity are considered as influences on market direction.
- The discussion includes reflections on investor behavior, market sentiment, and the timing of future bull market entry.

## Chapters

1. 00:00 Crypto Industry Purge and Legal Troubles
2. 03:28 Market Reaction to Fed Policy and Treasury Yields
3. 06:32 AI Stock Correction and Situational Awareness Fund Unwind
4. 09:32 Citadel’s Predatory Market Moves and TradFi Impact
5. 12:41 South Korean Traders and Semiconductor Market Volatility
6. 18:39 Bitcoin Price Stability and Market Bottom Debate
7. 24:30 Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks for Crypto
8. 29:30 Long-term Market Trends and Investor Sentiment

Answers

## Questions about this video

What does the video suggest about the current state of the crypto bear market?

The video suggests that recent industry shutdowns and legal issues may indicate the bear market is nearing its end, but caution is advised as the bottom is not yet confirmed.

How has the Federal Reserve's policy affected the markets according to the video?

The Fed's avoidance of forward guidance and unchanged policy rate led to modest market declines, rising treasury yields, and increased volatility as markets adjust to new signals.

What role did Citadel play in the recent AI stock market correction?

Citadel reportedly forced the liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund's illiquid positions, causing a market correction that allowed Citadel to acquire assets at a discount.

## Full Transcript — Download SRT & Markdown

00:00

Speaker A

These companies, they tried to hold on as long as they could. They finally had to capitulate and close down. And if they could only have held on just a little longer, they might have been able to reach the beginning of the next bull market. So again, maybe I'm overly optimistic here, but I view these things as good signs. And then all of a sudden, everything's down 95%. SPF is in jail. Alex Mashinsky's in jail. Docoin's on the run. Suju is on the run. Matt Damon has moved on to talking about vaccines and climate change initiatives, and you're left holding the bag. So these people are not coming back, and if they do come back, it'll be at the top. It's suspicious. I don't know. Like, I don't trust—call me crazy—I don't trust Scott Bent. Everyone out there is like, "Oh, Scott Bent. He's such an intelligent man." Yeah. He's like propping up the US economy. His job is to sell treasuries so that nobody wants them anymore.

00:11

Speaker A

[music] [music] [music] All right, we're live. Welcome back to another episode of Token Narratives.

00:23

Speaker A

This is episode 111. My name's Graeme Stone, joined by David Sensil and Alex Richardson. On the screen, it's just Alex. Write your full name next time, please, sir. All right, market updates.

00:36

Speaker A

Markets are currently absorbing the latest FOMC meeting where new Fed chair Kevin Worsh has doubled down on his new style of avoiding forward guidance and instead allowing the markets to speak for themselves. So he's admitted that the Fed has been, quote, sparing our words and not trying to interfere with the market signal. As for the policy rate, it remains unchanged, and the market reacted with modest downward moves. Treasury yields went up, and the VIX spiked about 13%.

00:50

Speaker A

At the same time, we have had quite a sharp correction in the AI trade.

01:08

Speaker A

Semiconductors, things like Intel, Qualcomm, SK Hynix, the big Korean chip memory maker, and others are in a pretty big correction here, which has caused significant losses for situational awareness. That's the fund started by former OpenAI employee Leopold Ashen Brener, and he's also the author of that quite viral report, or was involved in the writing of that quite viral report called Situational Awareness. It was circulating a couple of years ago now, where I think it predicted that by next year we would all be under the thumb of our AI overlords or something to that effect. The financial algorithm, yes, well, that's already the case, but we're talking about the Sylons or something. The Financial Times has reported that Ken Griffin's Citadel has snapped up most of the fund, the Situational Awareness fund, purchased most of Ashen Brener's assets, and the fund is unwinding or has unwound. This happened right after Citadel came out with a warning that Kevin Walsh would deliver a surprise rate hike on Wednesday, which didn't end up happening, but possibly spooked markets into going lower and thus bleeding Ashen Brener's position. So, hints of a hostile takeover type of situation there.

01:27

Speaker A

Citadel now has $71 billion in assets under management, or AUM as the cool kids call it. There are other hints of cracks in the global macro environment, including the aforementioned soaring yields on US treasuries. What are we at? Over close to 5% now, depending on your time, your like a whatever it is, the 10-year or the 2-year. We had a 43% drop in the KOSPI. KOSPI, the Korean thing that now everyone knows the name of it. The Korean stock market. I think it's the KOSPI. KOSPI. Sorry. Yeah. Thank you. There will be repercussions later, Alex.

01:39

Speaker A

Thanks. Thanks for pre-prepping the doc though. Edit, edit that out. And we have never-ending pain in the Japanese yen. I think it's trading 163 or so right now, down like, well, relative to the US dollar, like 80% in the last 2 years or 3 years. Precious metals trading sideways. Bitcoin kind of holding up. We're at $64,000 at the time of recording, and the debate over whether BTC has bottomed rages on. Gentlemen, weigh in. What's your gut tell you?

01:58

Speaker A

Well, there's a lot to process there. First of all, I think the most exciting thing that happened this week is that AI unwind and in particular some of the posts and anecdotes coming out of South Korea. I don't know if you gentlemen saw any of those translated from Korean into English on X, but boy, those South Koreans, they sure sort of levered up in all kinds of creative and devastating ways. If the post can be believed, that's par for the course for Korean traders, I believe. Yeah. Like cashing in their insurance, taking mortgages out, second mortgages on their homes to then pile into semis and memory.

02:14

Speaker A

Yeah, there seemed to be a certain, I don't know, level of desperation or something in Korea.

02:20

Speaker A

Pretty wild. Yeah, we—Korea Blockchain Week was at the end of September. So I think I've been talking about it before. I am going to be very interested to see if this whole thing happening right now is going to temper moods there, if it'll be like a, if things are going to be kind of cooled off at that point. But anyway, so there's that. That was all caused by the Situational Awareness. Looks like that initial kind of dramatic waterfall down was caused by the Situational Awareness thing where basically he was forced to liquidate a bunch of positions which had the huge effect that it did in the past couple days, and then the kind of just predatory brilliant move of Citadel to—the rumor goes—forced this to happen in some way because Situational Awareness's books were well known, its positions were in fairly illiquid and small stocks. And thus it was easier, much easier, to force downward movement and then the liquidations so that Citadel could then pick it up. Flood was on a podcast thinking USD, the hype caller, speaking about this and how this is not Citadel's first time doing this. Mr. Ken Griffin has made a career apparently out of finding kind of pain points in trad companies or hedge funds and things like that, forcing them into dire situations and then scooping them up on the cheap. Apparently, this is kind of his MMO. So, another notch for him. I suppose the big question is will this now cause—is this the start of a correction or is this going to be like a buy-the-dip moment? The people that I follow tend to think it's likely to have a cooling-off period at the very least, maybe a reasonable correction, and that it's better to be patient right now. Do not buy the dip. Wait for this to happen again. Flood said that analogist, but obviously not the same with FTX and with 1010 in 2025. The initial selloff led to a fairly violent rally, and that rally looked like it was a buy-the-dip moment, but then it, of course, faded over 12 to 18 months. I don't think people are predicting anything like that, but you would imagine that this could have the same kind of, at least in the short to midterm, shape where it goes down violently, rallies against that, and then it kind of just slowly fades for some amount of time. So yeah, that's kind of where I am right now, just trying to take in as much information on this because it's all happening right now and the information on it is mixed in terms of how reliable it is. But pretty exciting times over there in TradFi AI land. The thing to be looking forward to is obviously what kind of effects will this have on Bitcoin and crypto. So I'll stop there for a second to let Alex weigh in.

02:41

Speaker A

Yeah, David, I think you're correct. This is probably not the bottom, but when the bottom comes, it's going to be a violent, extreme V-shaped bottom type of thing. I think when it comes to TradFi and the stock market, most people that look into the US fiscal situation for a few minutes come to the conclusion that there's going to be a lot more spending. They're going to need inflation to be reaso—

02:55

Speaker A

be under the thumb of our AI overlords or something to that effect. The financial the algorithm yes the well that's already the case but we're talking about the Sylons or something. The Financial Times has reported that Ken Griffin's Citadel has

03:12

Speaker A

swapped up most of the fund, the situational awareness fund, purchased most of Ashen Brener's assets, and the fund is unwinding or has unwound. This happened right after Citadel came out with a warning that Kevin Walsh would deliver a surprise rate hike on

03:28

Speaker A

Wednesday, which didn't end up happening, but possibly spooked markets into going lower and thus bleeding Ashen Brener's position. So, hints of a hostile takeover type of situation there.

03:40

Speaker A

Citadel now has $71 billion in assets under management or AUM as the cool kids call it. There are other hints of cracks in the global macro environment, including the aforementioned soaring yields on US treasuries. What are we at

03:56

Speaker A

over close to 5% now, depending on your time, your like a whatever it is, the 10 year or the 2-year. We had a 43% drop in the cop Cosby. Cop the Korean thing that now everyone knows the name of it. The

04:11

Speaker A

Korean stock market. I think it's the Cosby. Cosby. Sorry. Yeah. Thank you. There will be. Yeah, there'll be repercussions later, Alex.

04:18

Speaker A

Thanks. Thanks for pre prepping the dock though. Edit edit that out. And we have never ending pain in the Japanese yen. I think it's trading 163 or so right now down like well relative to the US dollar like 80% in the last 2

04:34

Speaker A

years or 3 years. Precious metals trading sideways. Bitcoin kind of holding up. We're at $64,000 at the time of recording and the debate over whether BTC has bottomed rages on. Gentlemen, weigh in. What's your gut tell you?

04:49

Speaker A

Well, there's a lot to process there. First of all, I think the the most exciting thing is that happened this week is that AI unwind and in particular the some of the posts and anecdotes coming out of South Korea. I don't know

05:03

Speaker A

if you gentlemen saw any of those translated from Korean into English on X, but boy, those uh those South Koreans, they sure they sort of levered up in all kinds of creative and devastating ways. If um the post can be

05:17

Speaker A

believed, that's part for the course for Korean traders, I believe. Yeah. Like like cashing in their insurance, taking mortgages out, second mortgages on their homes to then pile into semis and memory.

05:31

Speaker A

Yeah, there seemed to be a a certain I don't know level of desperation or something in Korea.

05:38

Speaker A

Pretty wild. Yeah, we we're going to be at K Korea blockchain week was at the end of September. So I think I've been talking about it before. I am going to be very interested to see if this this

05:48

Speaker A

whole thing happening right now is going to um temper moods there if if it'll be like a if things are are going to be kind of cooled off at that point. But anyway, so there's that that was all

06:00

Speaker A

caused by the situational awareness. Looks like that was this this initial kind of dramatic waterfall down has been was caused by the situ awareness thing where basically he was forced to liquidate a bunch of positions which had the huge effect that it did in the past

06:15

Speaker A

couple days and then the kind of just predatory brilliant move of Citadel to the rumor goes forced this to happen in some way because situational awareness's books were wellknown its positions were in fairly illquid and small stocks. And

06:32

Speaker A

uh thus it would it was easier much easier to force downward movement and then the liquidations so that Citadel could then pick it up. Flood was on a podcast thinking USD the the hype caller speaking about this and how this is not

06:46

Speaker A

Citadel's first time doing this. Uh Mr. Ken Griffin has made a career apparently uh out of finding kind of pain points in in trad companies or hedge funds and things like that, forcing them into dire situations and then scooping them up on

07:02

Speaker A

the cheap. Apparently, this is kind of his MMO. So, another notch for him. I I suppose the the the big question is will this now cause is this the start of a correction or is this going to be like a

07:15

Speaker A

buy the dip moment? I the people that I follow they tend to think it's likely to have a cooling off period at the very least maybe a reasonable correction and that it's better to be p patient right now do not buy the dip wait for this to

07:30

Speaker A

happen again flood said that analogist but obviously not the same with FTX and with 1010 in 2025 the initial selloff led to a fairly violent rally and that rally looked like it was a buy the dip moment but then it of course faded over,

07:46

Speaker A

you know, 12 to 18 months. I don't think there people are predicting anything like that, but you would imagine that this this could have the same kind of at least in the short to midterm shape where it goes

08:01

Speaker A

down, violently, rallies against that, and then it kind of just slowly fades for some amount of time. So, yeah, that's that's kind of where where I am right now. just trying to um take in as much information on this because it's

08:16

Speaker A

it's all happening right now and the information on it is mixed in terms of how how reliable it is. But pretty exciting times over there in Tradfi AI land. The the thing to be looking forward to is obviously what kind of

08:30

Speaker A

effects will this have on Bitcoin and crypto. So I I'll stop there for a second to to let Alex weigh in.

08:35

Speaker A

Yeah, David, I think you're correct. This is probably not the bottom, but when the bottom comes, it's going to be a violent extreme V-shaped bottom type of thing. I think when it comes to Trady and the stock market, like most people

08:47

Speaker A

that look into the US fiscal situation for a few minutes come to the conclusion that there's going to be a lot more spending. They're going to need inflation to be reasonably high, like not Zimbabwe. But personally, I think

09:00

Speaker A

we're going to have like four, five, 6% inflation year-over-year for the next few years.

09:06

Speaker A

they're going to have reasonably low rates and this is going to prop ass asset prices up. I I don't know like which sectors are are going to perform like maybe AI needs to cool off for a long time but just looking at the

09:16

Speaker A

indices I I I kind of I kind of agree that it's just going to go up forever for the next for the foreseeable future.

09:21

Speaker A

I think Rale Pow will eventually be correct that the that the global liquidity is just going to keep driving everything. Right now it's it's it's decoupled when it comes to like the the really risky assets but I I think this

09:32

Speaker A

is going to resolve pretty soon. And when it comes to Bitcoin and crypto, I I continue to believe that this is a really exciting time to be in crypto. I know this this analogy has been made a lot of times, so this is kind of a cold

09:43

Speaker A

take, but I really do think that it's fair to compare this to the dot bubble where everyone was very overly exuberant about a new technology. They're walking around with a hammer. Everything looks like a nail. We need to tokenize our

09:56

Speaker A

watches and ugly pictures of monkeys are worth half a million dollars. And then you come back to reality and people start caring about users and revenue and product market fit. And we're starting to see this. I think people the crypto

10:08

Speaker A

natives are starting to be really honest about these things. They're honest about token value acrruel. They're honest about how a lot of crypto is just about making stratifi more efficient. And it it can be sobering, but it's healthy.

10:19

Speaker A

And you know, like profits are made when you buy, not not really when you sell.

10:23

Speaker A

So if we get this big bull market, it's not going to matter uh if if you're not positioning yourself when when prices are down. So I yeah I I think we probably make another low if you look at

10:33

Speaker A

like the the stock indices were probably pretty overextended but maybe with Boy Wonder Ashen Brunner getting liquidated here and some of the other macro signals this might be the beginning of that that that final catalyst that kind of that

10:47

Speaker A

corrects the stock market and brings Bitcoin down to its its final low of of the cycle. So I I think this is really really exciting and like this is really the time to be looking at how to position yourself for the next few

10:58

Speaker A

years. Yeah. I mean, the AI thing is Yeah. I I don't think it I don't think it's similar to the the what's it called? The initial internet bubble just because the companies are still making money. And unlike that first internet bubble, a lot

11:15

Speaker A

of this does feel productive and it does feel like demand for compute is only going to go up. Even if even if it is being commoditized and all that kind of stuff, which means that certain companies might go down like some of

11:28

Speaker A

these frontier AI companies, it doesn't it doesn't mean that that supply will overwhelm demand. I I def I I think quite the opposite, right? Like I think I've said this before on this show, but I would love to use AI in every aspect

11:41

Speaker A

of everything. Like just just talking to it on my phone, right? Which I it gets budgeted out to me like, oh, I want to ask it a question. I don't want to type it in. But then I can only do that like,

11:51

Speaker A

you know, 10 to 20 times a day. I just want to do it all the time, right? I don't want to I don't want to ever have to touch my phone like do this anymore.

11:59

Speaker A

It'd be great if it was just constantly um through an AI interface. So again, I think I think uh compute is only going to rise from here for the foreseeable future. And so I don't think that there'll be this kind of bubble moment

12:14

Speaker A

over the medium to long term right now. At least not yet. Uh what what is it?

12:18

Speaker A

Earnings are mixed in this. Microsoft did fairly well. Amazon just released something about AWS usage. It's going up bigly, right? So, there's still there's still a lot of u mixed signals here. I think certain sectors are overheated obviously, but it

12:38

Speaker A

doesn't seem to me like that the that the sector is weak overall. Also, go ahead. No, I was just going to jump in that you know a lot of people have been worried that okay some of these like the the hypers scale like

12:51

Speaker A

Google is now like spending money right and uh so their cash flow what is it that their free cash flow has been eaten up by their their capex and that's a concern for many people but it was pointed out uh somewhere that Google's

13:06

Speaker A

sort of return on investment of like the investments they've made over the last 20 years is something like 30%. So you kind of if they're if they're investing heavily in this, I think you it it's reasonable to to trust that they're

13:21

Speaker A

making they are actually making good investments and so therefore you could say like it's okay that their their free cash flow is has fallen off a cliff here. They're actually they finally found something to invest in rather than

13:34

Speaker A

their own stocks. Yeah, exactly. That is bullish. And also just take the negative case.

13:40

Speaker A

Let's say this is bad for Google. So what doesn't mean that it's going to be bad bad for the upandcomers or like a plethora of other AI related companies.

13:51

Speaker A

I would also just say that we're the stock market is only like right now I think around 2% off the off the highs, right? So the sky looks like it was falling for the past couple days, especially if you're like in Korea,

14:02

Speaker A

something like that because a very particular sector was hit hard. But overall things don't look that bad. Now, you could say, Alex, like, yeah, it's it's oversold or, you know, it's it's showing weakness that we're still so high up. The other take on that, though,

14:15

Speaker A

is that one one specific sector got overheated, but the overall look of the market is not not terrible. Now, again, I'm not making predictions or anything like that, but just to put it in context, I don't think the sky is

14:27

Speaker A

falling. And it it doesn't I think an extended bare market thinking that is mental illness at this point. I just think like as far as entry points, it it would be really nice if you could get like a 10 or 15% correction before you

14:40

Speaker A

start going out the curve on Bitcoin and back to the the higher risk AI stocks and stuff. I I definitely don't believe there's going to be a long bare market and I think uh I I don't think this is

14:50

Speaker A

like wildly overvalued like a lot of people say. I just think if entry points matter and uh yeah, I would just love to get a bigger discount on a lot of stuff.

14:59

Speaker A

Yeah. Now, so that's that's the Tradfi stuff and it's exciting, but this is obviously a Bitcoin.com news, token narratives, crypto podcast. So, what does this mean for my bags and my sector? I I would be constructive and say if AI and Sims memory are going to

15:18

Speaker A

kind of cool off for a little bit, they're not done, but I'm sure they might cool off for a little bit, then you'd imagine some of that capital is going to rotate. Some of those profits are going to rotate to other other

15:27

Speaker A

areas. And crypto is so beaten down. I mean it is just a desiccated corpse right now um compared to compared to this amazing trade for the past I guess 2 years. I it makes me feel optimistic right uh that that capital will rotate

15:41

Speaker A

into crypto and the total market cap of crypto is is has been bled out so much even a small percentage of of profits moving into crypto will have a a fairly big effect. So that's what I'm looking for. I I spoke with a gentleman in

16:00

Speaker A

Korea, part of um Korean investment research company, and I asked specifically about this. I don't know if he's gotten back to me yet, but we should be having an article come out today covering the move in Korea and how

16:13

Speaker A

it pertains to or what it portends for crypto. So, one of the questions I asked him was Tun Chetra from who's on the chopping block, co-founder, CEO of Gauntlet. He said in one of the clips that we released last week that every

16:28

Speaker A

San Francisco crypto company is dead and it's dead just because it's because of its geographic physical proximity to AI basically. So crypto companies in the US that were on the west coast have just died because there's no attention and no

16:43

Speaker A

money. I think maybe the same thing has happened in places like Korea, right? So with this with this uh deleveraging in Korea, I wonder if that'll then set the stage for a return of attention and capital to crypto. So that that's kind

16:59

Speaker A

of what I'm looking forward to. Interesting. Let's just go through some of the list of some of the crypto not blowups, but relatively orderly windowns that have happened here in recent days and weeks. So obviously the big one was

17:14

Speaker A

BitMEX, the OG perpetual derivatives exchange winding down in an orderly fashion. BitMart, the tier 2 pretty pretty well-known altcoin focused crypto exchange also winding down. Then there's Ascendex. So that was pre previously known as Bitmax and they ceased

17:34

Speaker A

operations at the beginning of the month. There are others, right? So I mean other other movements that show what has happened in in in like in terms of just the bleed slow bleed off of of crypto right so there's let me just list

17:49

Speaker A

off a few more Gemini they announced earlier in the year February they're cutting 25 that they were cutting 25% of their staff Coinbase in May cut 20 14% in June Bitcoin uh BitGo was slashed 15% of its stash staff and earlier this week

18:04

Speaker A

we had Uphold announcing a cut of 17 of their staff. Then you have other crypto projects failing, right? You've got uh Movement Labs, that's the company behind the Movement blockchain. They filed for bankruptcy despite raising, by the way,

18:18

Speaker A

$141 million from investors. DAP Radar shut down in November. I didn't know that. I know how much I've been using DAP Radar recently.

18:27

Speaker A

They actually shut down in November. storage storage s a remnant of the 2017 ICO bubble finally called it quits after like 10 years or so of trying to be the decentralized storage solution. They filed for bankruptcy. Zapper, a

18:47

Speaker A

portfolio tracker and DeFi dashboard announced it's shutting down completely starting a few days from now, August 3rd. And there are many other examples I'm sure that we don't have in the list.

18:58

Speaker A

Crypto deal making has also collapsed I think as you alluded to David. So the slow somewhat orderly decline of crypto is very much evidenced here. Yeah. In the last months.

19:12

Speaker A

This is this is kind of what you see at the kind of depressed doldrum stage of the bare market. It's not sexy. It's not exciting. does not like some headline grabbing criminal activity or misuse of misappropriation of funds. It's just

19:30

Speaker A

kind of boring, depressing. Yeah, the business loss doesn't have any more money, so we're closing down and that's it. And then, you know, writ large across a a bunch of different sectors.

19:40

Speaker A

That's good sign, I think. Right. Like these companies, they tried to hold on as long as they could. They all they finally had to capitulate and close down. And if they could only have held on just a little longer, they might have

19:52

Speaker A

been able to to to reach the beginning of the next bull market. So again, maybe I'm I'm overly optimistic here, but uh I I I view these things as good signs and healthy.

20:02

Speaker A

Yeah, healthy. Healthy in the the depressing way of like people don't even care. There's no one we're we're talking into the void right now about these closures. Whereas at the beginning of the the bare market, many of many of

20:15

Speaker A

these moves, I'm sure, would have even made like the mainstream mainstream articles where they wanted to to punch down and uh dance on crypto's grave. Oh, look at this. These idiots this place, this thing filed for bankruptcy. No one

20:26

Speaker A

cares. So, like, [laughter] yeah, it's good news. Yeah, I'm totally numb to all this. This is like water off a duck's back. And like I don't have the data on this, but I I think it's it's pretty clear that a lot of this is

20:38

Speaker A

driven by the fact that a lot of tourists joined crypto, let's say joined in 2021. And a lot of these centralized exchanges and these companies, their their their revenue growth was like driven by allowing people to to gamble

20:53

Speaker A

on altcoins and they got all interested in it and they used all the analytics platforms and they made accounts at BitMart and the Sendex and they wanted to do a punt on some overvalued vaporware and now they're all like

21:03

Speaker A

feeling betrayed and misled when it all went down 95%. Like that's not a great revenue source. It's hard to make money off of people who are broke and hate you. Regardless of how how big your your spread is and how sneaky your fees are.

21:15

Speaker A

And actually, I I understand why like if these people feel misled, I think they they they kind of have a right to these tourists. Like imagine you don't you don't know anything about crypto and then in 2021 you see Matt Damon on TV,

21:27

Speaker A

he's doing an ad for crypto.com and then the next morning you see the New York Times doing a a puff piece on Sam Bangman Freed. that picture of him like eating a cucumber and like their local stadium is suddenly called FTX Arena and

21:40

Speaker A

they're like, "Okay, well, if if Matt Damon says that Fortune favors the Brave and the New York Times says that this fat, creepy vegan guy is like really successful, then that that must mean that this technology is very legitimate.

21:52

Speaker A

So, I'm going to buy Polka Dot at a $47 billion valuation cuz I like the logo and Gavin Wood is a nice British accent.

21:58

Speaker A

And then all of a sudden like every everything's down 95%. SPF is in jail.

22:02

Speaker A

Alex Mashinsky's in jail. Docoin's on the run. Suju is on the run. Matt Damon has moved on to talking about like vaccines and climate change initiatives.

22:11

Speaker A

And you're left holding the bag. So like these people are not coming back. And if they do come back, it'll be at the top.

22:17

Speaker A

So I think you're going to see this this is setting the stage for like a a natural consolidation into the bigger exchanges and companies that have multiple streams of revenue. Like I guess Coinbase is an example. They've got a good wallet and a chain, a very

22:31

Speaker A

successful chain. Institutional liquidity, uh partial ownership of USDC, like a big stable coin. This is like, like I said before, this is kind of like I I feel like it's a.com moment where there's going to be a lot of opportunity

22:42

Speaker A

in catching the consolidation in into the into the big companies. And speaking of Coinbase, I believe Coin is down like 7% after weak earnings today. And I I think that's a that's a great buy.

22:54

Speaker A

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Speaker A

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Speaker A

Get your brand where it belongs, in front of millions. partner with Bitcoin.com Media. Today we're at 163 and just stuff like that is if if there's a positive, if this is if this is a bottom signal, then stuff like

23:54

Speaker A

that is where the opportunities lie in my opinion. Also, just to reiterate, Graham, I just had a flashback, right? cuz um was working at a crypto company during the the tail end of the of the last the bare

24:06

Speaker A

market. The staff cutting thing, the staff cutting thing that is to me a telltale sign. It was almost exactly like last time is these companies hire a bunch of people during the good times and then they get kind of overweight and

24:20

Speaker A

they have to start cutting staff there right at the kind of the end of the bare market right before things get good again. And so that that's a classic signal, right? I remember that very clearly like, "Oh god, crypto companies all

24:32

Speaker A

around me are cutting staff." Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Absolute classic signal. So, yeah. Yeah. I I'm there on that. And uh I think that I think I think maybe the this time is different thing is the fact that something you were talking

24:46

Speaker A

about, Alex, is that Tradfi and institutions are really getting knees deep into kneedeep into uh Bitcoin and crypto, right? And this is not it doesn't have that kind of exciting sexy feel like it did last time when a bunch

25:02

Speaker A

of uh upstarts were were there to to ride the the next u bull market wave.

25:10

Speaker A

Right. The play now is is just to moderate incremental improvements in your infrastructure. That's that's sort of which David I know that's something you've been saying for like years at this point that the the key thing that crypto is going to do is is just

25:28

Speaker A

moderately improve the financial infrastructure. Yeah. It'll be it'll be a it'll be slightly better than what we had before.

25:38

Speaker A

Yeah. It's not doesn't have the same ring to it. Not necessarily we're that we're all going to be like walking around with I don't know whatever it is NFTTS on our like projected to our faces or something. And it's and the other thing

25:51

Speaker A

that you know I think I think is maybe harder to get retail back into it although I think it will happen eventually. We don't have that like at least right now we don't have that that kind of like avaristic pull of you can

26:06

Speaker A

make a,000x just throw throw your dart at a ticker screen of crypto tickers or whatever and you're going to get 1000x your returns. It's like no sta stable coins issued by Morgan Stanley going to do really well.

26:21

Speaker A

Yeah. I mean it it does beg the question like what what is there going to be the next big thing, right? You know, we had DeFi, NFTTS, meme coins, a little flash of I don't know, science coins, and

26:35

Speaker A

Oh, yeah. Maybe flash of a AI related coins. Is there going to be like another thing like that that is is like attractive to newcomers?

26:48

Speaker A

Yeah, I would say it's likely actually. I would I think so, too. But very hard to predict what it's going to I think I think what happened though is that that'll happen once those kinds of things will kind of present once the

26:59

Speaker A

market starts to get overheated I believe. the things that kick off these what's it called? The narratives that are going to kind of push crypto back into the spotlight are just not very sexy this time, at least thus far,

27:12

Speaker A

right? It's just like, yes, trillions are coming on chain through RWAs and stable coin growth is explosive and every company that your boomer parents have known their whole life are diving head first into crypto now.

27:26

Speaker A

Yeah. And every jurisdiction is launching its own stable coin. It's all being integrated into the trady and yeah, central banks are like having symposium to make money off of it. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's all it's all focused on on Tradfy and what the banks

27:41

Speaker A

are doing. Crypto is turning like a large part of it is turning out to just be how can we make Tradfi more profitable for the goblins on Wall Street and and it's hard it's hard to capture a lot of the value. You know, I

27:52

Speaker A

said a large part, not all of it. I don't want to be a pessimist. There are like I still think there's some good narratives and good bullets and a few like 5100 X's out there. But yeah, like what how do you make money off the

28:02

Speaker A

stable coins and the tokenization? It it's definitely not as exciting as before. But but if crypto is always about like empowering the masses, power to the people, the people are not going to deal with with the state of of

28:15

Speaker A

affairs even now, right? Like I mean Graham, this is an old an old soap box that we both have been on, but like putting in an Ethereum address or a CA on Salana into your freaking wallet or aping in on even like Trumpcoin and

28:30

Speaker A

there's like 50 coins that this or like sending sending your son some stable coins and then you mistakenly delete a single number and so then that money's gone forever. Goodbye. [ \_\_ ] you. Done.

28:45

Speaker A

Yeah. Or you forgot to attach the memo, man. Or you or you sent it you sent it on like uh whatever it is like this is a this is this has this has to be what's it called? SegWit address and you didn't

28:58

Speaker A

do it. So those funds are gone and goodbye. No no recourse. Like can I I need to call the Bitcoin and get my money back. It's like, well, anyway, the whole point is that that that was never going to reach the masses

29:11

Speaker A

and and so you you need kind of the tradification of that, I think, in order to empower people or this kind of thing.

29:19

Speaker A

Anyway, that's been that's been what I saying. I do think that we will get to those kind of we'll get fast forward like a year and a half from now, two years, three years, whatever it is, and we will get the Korean stories and

29:30

Speaker A

probably stories from America of people like triple mortgaging their children and losing it, losing it all on on Fartcoin 2.0, right? This this will happen eventually, but not for the moment. And and I don't think that that will be the

29:48

Speaker A

I don't think that'll be thing that lights the market on fire this time around is that kind of super speculative stuff. It'll be it'll be like yeah maybe like Robin Hood chain doing well I guess or boomers jumping in head first into treasuries on

30:03

Speaker A

chain or circle. They don't they don't even know that they're on chain. That kind of thing. So yeah that's that's uh all right let's uh dive into clarity for a few moments. Yeah. Exciting times, Graham.

30:15

Speaker A

Yeah, it's a great segue. We go from one riveting very very very exciting crypto topic to another.

30:22

Speaker A

Yeah, the landmark legislation, crypto legislation in the US looking like it's it's not happening anytime soon. The odds of it happening like the the poly markets and the cashes are those odds of have dropped off a cliff here in recent

30:39

Speaker A

days. I found this interesting. Thanks for adding it to the doc. Alex Scott Bent he that yeah he seems offended by this these delays and you know he wrote on X the Senate needs to vote now on this landmark legislation and then um

30:55

Speaker A

you know he accused Senate Democrats of allowing politics to derail what he described as a major opportunity for American financial leadership and he asked lawmakers to identify another moment in history when Congress had deliberately chosen to push an industry

31:10

Speaker A

out of the United States rather than create sensible rules for it. And the sign off was a quote from Satoshi Nakamoto. If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to convince you. Sorry. So, Scott Bent

31:22

Speaker A

dropping the What's your read, Graham? Is that Is that wreak of desperation to you?

31:26

Speaker A

It it uh it's suspicious. It's I don't know. Like, I don't trust Call me crazy.

31:31

Speaker A

I don't trust Scott Bent. Everyone out there is like, "Oh, Scott Bass, he's such a intelligent man." Yeah. He's like propping up the US economy. like his job is to sell treasuries so that nobody wants anymore or I don't know he could

31:45

Speaker A

get into that but the clarity I think will help him do that so that's why he he wants to get it passed. Yeah. No, totally. I mean, he's he's talking his book, as the Trafy Boomers say. And I actually am one of

31:58

Speaker A

those people that think he he is doing a good job and he has a kind of an intelligent plan for the US as opposed to what's happening in like that may be true, but what what he says is not what he means or like everything

32:13

Speaker A

he says should be couched, I think, in what his actual goals are. like it's not I don't think he's like don't you think he's been fairly honest?

32:23

Speaker A

Don't you think he's been fairly transparent about it? Like he said before that he wants to get yields lower and he wants to create a bid for for treasuries and doesn't clarity just make it easier for stable coin allocation

32:34

Speaker A

which would then prop up a bid for treasuries. I I don't see anything that's true. I also don't trust him. But yeah, that you're right. But the way he's like described, well, you can't pass it's it's about American ingenuity

32:47

Speaker A

that like the real motivation is just he wants to get yields down and sell more treasuries, right? So, yeah. Okay. Yeah, he he's definitely packaging it in a in a flashier package, but yeah, none of this is like suspicious or weird

33:02

Speaker A

to me. Yeah, I I think he's also been pretty transparent on geopolitics about the role role of the US dollar and using it as kind of like a weapon and people have been like, "How dare you?" He's like, "No, no, we we've got the power,

33:17

Speaker A

so we're going to use it." I do think he's a bit some of his rhetoric can be a little I just choose my words carefully.

33:24

Speaker A

Nauseating. Well, no. Catty is what I was going to say. So, it's it's just like, "Dude, you're the Treasury Secretary. just maybe calm down on the insults, I guess.

33:33

Speaker A

Although some of them are pretty funny. Uh, but clarity not getting passed is obviously going to throw a wrench in in what he wants to do. It'll also down Proudfi institutions in America adopting crypto at a faster rate. They seem like

33:48

Speaker A

they really want this to pass. You talk about not believing people, Graham. Last week I wrote in the newsletter that like was it Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, a couple others have all come out saying that they want Clarity to

34:01

Speaker A

pass. I saw that and I was like, I don't know if they actually want it to pass or if they're just saying that because they know it's not going to be passed now.

34:08

Speaker A

But anyway, assuming that they do want it to pass, they should because they're they're leaving um they're they're letting foreign companies fill fill this void. And uh it's it's kind of annoying that that's the case. And clarity would

34:20

Speaker A

help with that. It would also help people who the people with money in America, i.e. the boomers to pile into crypto. They wouldn't really know that they are, but they would they would be doing it through their their broker or

34:32

Speaker A

this kind of thing. So it would be kind of annoying for Clarity not to pass. I do think that uh Felix from Forward Guidance is probably right on this where it's if it doesn't pass, we'll have a we

34:43

Speaker A

have a correction, but it'll recover quickly. if it does pass, it's good news. So, it'll it'll go up. So, it's it kind of feels like it's it's um it's not going to matter as much in in the mid to

34:55

Speaker A

long term. The interesting thing for me is I I bet you some of these cryptonative companies, they don't want it to pass because then they're going to have to suddenly start fighting against these giant behemoths in Tradfi who are

35:07

Speaker A

who are going to pile in when they get legal clarity on on how how to hold crypto and what they can do with it and and this kind of thing. So yeah, I I am also like like like you Graham, we've

35:19

Speaker A

we've talked about this before, a little clarity act fatigued at this point. It's been going on for seems like ever. And now that it it seems likely to not pass, I'm just like, "All right, can we we go

35:32

Speaker A

talk about something else?" Yeah. I hope it comes back under a different name. Yeah. It'll probably come back like in 2028, 2029 as the F crypto movement or something. I don't know. Something something like that.

35:46

Speaker A

And the clarity would be like crypto is illegal and if you hold crypto, you're going to get a wealth tax. Protect American Finance Act.

35:54

Speaker A

No, protect Protect the Middle Class Act. I think it's going to be fine either way. Like, uh, crypto has absorbed so much bad news over the last few years that if this happens, like it it's probably just going to catalyze the

36:06

Speaker A

last leg down and and create the bottom. And if it gets passed and we get some sort of legislation, then then it's going to be good. I'm kind of in the Arthur Hayes camp that no one actually cares about regulation. And if there's a

36:16

Speaker A

way to make money, then people are going to find a way to capture those opportunities regardless of the regulation. So I yeah, like David referenced uh Felix from the chopping block talking about this is it's going to be positive either guidance.

36:27

Speaker A

It doesn't get Sorry, forward guidance. My bad. Actually, it's going to be forward guidance.

36:34

Speaker A

Actually, I would love like I think prices are going lower anyway. So just like give us the catalyst and get it over with. And if clarity not passing is that catalyst, then let's just rip the band-aid off and

36:44

Speaker A

send us to 50K and let's get this uh let's this bare market over with.

36:49

Speaker A

Get this party started. Yeah. All right, let's uh move to our last topic for the week, which is something that David is extremely excited about, and it's the fact that Bitcoin ownership in the US has surpassed gold ownership.

37:02

Speaker A

All right. Now, huge caveat that this is a study commissioned by River, a Bitcoin company.

37:10

Speaker A

And anyway, some interesting stats in here. Basically, they're saying like, yeah, like 72% more Americans hold Bitcoin than gold. You know, it could be like like a couple of sats that they hold. And this is based this is like a

37:27

Speaker A

survey. It's like a 3,500 sample of people. Uh, and uh yeah, I mean, it's probably right. And even if there are like a bunch of caveats in here like, okay, it might be a small amount. It's not 100% clear. The fact that more

37:43

Speaker A

people in the US actually hold Bitcoin than gold is pretty incredible. And by a lot, it seems. So, I don't think it's right.

37:51

Speaker A

Okay. Why not? I I I I don't I I need to dig into how they actually are are trying to make this claim. If you're telling me that like this accounts for, I don't know, companies or ETFs in

38:11

Speaker A

institutions that hold gold like maybe offshore or in in it doesn't say anything about the the value of the amounts held. just the number of holders. And so it was a survey of 3,538 adults. Women made up 52% of the sample

38:31

Speaker A

and the data was collected in March 2025. Yeah. Who were they sampling? Like well, it's supposed to be a statistical representation. I'm I find it hard to believe that Bitcoin the number of people holding Bitcoin is higher than the number of people holding

38:48

Speaker A

actual gold. Like for example, what about people who actually own like a a piece of gold?

38:53

Speaker A

That's that's a good point. Everybody has a piece of gold. That's like 100%. Let's just say that we're we're going to discount jewelry. Fine. But like you have like a gold coin or a gold bar or this kind of thing. I just don't I just

39:06

Speaker A

This is just seems to me pure impossible. I I just don't I don't buy it for a second. It's I guess it's a nice headline. By the way, I didn't mention the the headline is 18.6% 6% of Americans hold some amount of Bitcoin.

39:20

Speaker A

Yeah. And I I bet I bet. Anyway, I I don't know. I I I again I find I find it hard to believe. May maybe true.

39:28

Speaker A

Probably not. But I guess the you could just say the signal is is productive or or is good, right? Like Bitcoin ownership is going up and that's a good thing. people are no longer. It's like it's like uh it's like do you guys

39:42

Speaker A

remember I'm old as hell. Sorry, but I remember when Amazon first was kind of kicking around. I had to push my parents to get an Amazon account when I was a kid and they're like I you know credit

39:53

Speaker A

card putting my credit card on a website. We're not going to do that. And it was it it was like a fight to get them to enter their credit card details into a website to buy things online. I

40:03

Speaker A

know that's old and sounds crazy, but yeah. Yeah. Over time, everyone becomes comfortable with the idea of having a credit card online. Now, it seems laughable that you would even there was a time where people were scared of this

40:13

Speaker A

voodoo internet credit card magic stuff. Bitcoin is probably on a similar trajectory where when we first started writing or when I first started writing articles on Bitcoin, the skepticism was just as like, well, but how does it No,

40:27

Speaker A

there's no money here. It's not how does this work? And now everyone Yeah. Yeah.

40:31

Speaker A

He's like, yeah, but it's just there's nothing backing it. where how how does where are the dollars backing it? So yeah, we're getting to a point where people are just like, "Yeah, Bitcoin is valuable. I'm going to have some." And

40:40

Speaker A

so that's that's the end of it. And um this is kind of pointing to that in terms of it's just now acceptable and there's no like psychological hangup that that it has value. It's assumed now to have value and so people will get a

40:54

Speaker A

little bit. David, do you think that uh this stat will be true in in at some point? Do you think more?

41:00

Speaker A

Oh, absolutely. Yeah, I think it'll be I think when once millennials and zoomers get more money, especially Zoomers, once Zoomers move out of their parents' basement and maybe even before that, maybe they steal money from their parents or something, I don't know, and

41:14

Speaker A

they get a little money, they'll probably put put it into Bitcoin over gold. I think I think um I've been very vocal that I think Bitcoin is a much better version of gold. And so young people absolutely I think younger than

41:24

Speaker A

me will will believe that Bitcoin is more valuable than gold. And so you would naturally do that. the idea like like the idea that you would have to go somewhere to pick up a piece of gold or maybe guess you could do an ETF, but if

41:36

Speaker A

you actually wanted real gold, you have to have it. I think it scares most young people to have to physically go do something. So, yeah, because the average young person that I speak to with a broccoli haircut, they can't even look

41:47

Speaker A

you in the eye and speak English and string a sentence together. So, this this idea that they're going to like physically walk 20 blocks to the gold dealer and like negotiate a price, which should be kind of complex because the

41:58

Speaker A

lower amount you buy like under an ounce, the higher the the premium is. What are they going to do? Like do that or take out their phone, which is what they're best at, and tap it a few times

42:07

Speaker A

and get whatever amount they want with a with with very reasonable fees. Yeah. But also have that security, right? that like like you have the custody of it like some of I mean that's one of the great things about gold. So yeah, sorry

42:22

Speaker A

I cut you off but yeah. Yeah, I zoned out after you said broccoli haircut. I started looking up pictures.

42:27

Speaker A

Well I just see I see so much of it and I don't I don't understand this haircut.

42:31

Speaker A

I just want to grab them by the wrists and tell them like what the hell are you guys doing? Like have some respect for yourself.

42:37

Speaker A

I like broccoli. It's pretty cool. It's delicious. It's a great vegetable. It's a great vegetable.

42:44

Speaker A

It's poison. Yeah, Bitcoin Bitcoin will be Yeah, I think I think um it'll it'll be interesting to see at what point governments actually truly truly start taking it seriously. But it'll probably be catalyzed by the fact that young

42:58

Speaker A

people once they once they reach those kind of earning years in their 30s to 40s are just going to buy Bitcoin more naturally than than gold just because it's it's it's more com it's more comfortable to have a a digital asset

43:12

Speaker A

like straight up. Right. It's very low friction. Yeah. And so yeah yeah yeah you'll see this you'll see this happen and but it's going to you know I think it's going to happen slowly right it's not going to

43:22

Speaker A

happen in 2026 today. I think gold does have some like just so we don't sound like or so I don't sound like an evangelist here I do think gold has some advantages over Bitcoin for example I remember this

43:33

Speaker A

interview that Max Kaiser did a few years ago and Max Kaiser is basically mentally ill religious about Bitcoin but he he admitted in an interview with Danielle Camboni from she was on Kitco and then she started Stanberry Research.

43:47

Speaker A

Anyways, she asked him what what does gold have over Bitcoin? Cuz he spent the entire interview just like raving about how great Bitcoin is. And he admitted that gold is more funible and private than Bitcoin. And and I think that's

43:59

Speaker A

true. And you you can you can make that you can make that case. It is kind of cool to like hold it in your hand and know that you don't need any counterparty or anything. No one knows it's in your hand. You can melt it down.

44:09

Speaker A

You can bury it. That that is like that is something that I think some people uh overlook. I think the first part is true. I don't think the second part is true. I think it is not as I think it's

44:19

Speaker A

less private because there's going to if you if you ever want to exchange gold for value, there's going to be a paper trail. Especially if it's like I mean maybe if it's like a coin like a single coin, a $1,000 $500 coin maybe.

44:30

Speaker A

Yeah. I don't think there's a big difference. But if you if you want to move like a million dollars of gold or higher, it's going to be a paper trail a mile long. And everyone in every institution and government in the world

44:41

Speaker A

will will know will know that you had a million million dollars worth of gold.

44:46

Speaker A

Yeah. The big thing in my mind that gold has over Bitcoin, which could also be its key negative is is that it has like 5,000 year history. So reputation, long-term reputation, historical usage.

45:00

Speaker A

But that also cuts both ways because it's kind of like antiquated, I guess you could say, compared to the version, right? So the big thing that I think gold has over Bitcoin is the fact that Bitcoiners will tell you that you can just have your

45:14

Speaker A

Bitcoin and do nothing and just sit on it and forever and you'll be fine. This is not true, right? Like the network has to be rewarded in order for Bitcoin to remain valuable. And so there is in a

45:27

Speaker A

sense some kind of tax to own Bitcoin, right? You have to pay for network security and this kind of thing. It's not it's not completely free. Like now once you have gold, once you have it, it can just sit there and there is no I

45:40

Speaker A

mean there is no tax on just holding gold, right? So it's it's a bit different in that respect and that I think is an important difference.

45:48

Speaker A

Yeah. Although to to dispose of your gold, you do pay the the verification tax effectively, which it kind of works out to be it's comparable, I would say.

45:59

Speaker A

Yeah. Well, yeah, I guess so. I mean, you'd still But that's that's kind of true of any thing that you want to trade for other value. You're going to have to you're going to have to to to pay a fee

46:10

Speaker A

to exchange it for something else. Like that's it's the same as Bitcoin, right? Unless Bitcoin was a medium of exchange.

46:17

Speaker A

What a stupid idea. But yeah, you're going to you have to pay a fee for that, too.

46:21

Speaker A

Probably. What I mean is is that if you to exchange gold, you got to prove it that it's gold, right? And that's costly.

46:29

Speaker A

While Bitcoin, assuming the network is up and running, it's there's no real fee there. But yeah, you're you're paying for those things in kind of different ways. In Bitcoin's case, you're paying it for it like via the security budget,

46:42

Speaker A

like very gradual dilution. And in gold, you got to pay for it like at the point of sale, I guess you could say. If you're if you're holding real gold, like it costs to get it verified that it's

46:53

Speaker A

real. Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. Yep. All right, let's wrap it up there. We've uh I don't think we need to go any further down that rabbit hole. All right, interesting stuff today. As usual, guys, thanks for your insights.

47:05

Speaker A

Thanks for anyone who listened. If you made it this far, I guess you have found some value in this podcast. So, make sure to uh you know do the thing where you you like uh like and stuff. And if

47:16

Speaker A

you're want more value, make sure you subscribe to our newsletter written by David Sensil. [music] It's a beauty. And supported by our our head researcher here, Alex Richardson. Great work, guys.

47:27

Speaker A

Have a great weekend. [music] [music] [music]

Topics: crypto bear market Token Narratives Federal Reserve Ken Griffin Citadel Situational Awareness fund AI stock correction Bitcoin price South Korea trading market volatility


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